VA: Two Polls Show Obama Up By Double Digits
Two polls in Virginia now show Barack Obama with a double-digit lead over John McCain. The first poll comes from Suffolk University and actually shows Obama now leading McCain by 12%.
PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Suffolk)
Barack Obama (D) 51%
John McCain (R) 39%US SENATE – VIRGINIA (Suffolk)
Mark Warner (D) 57%
Jim Gilmore (R) 25%
This poll was done October 3-5 among 600 likely voters. And then Survey USA followed up with a Virginia poll of their own that shows Obama’s lead at 10% in Virginia.
PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Survey USA)
Barack Obama (D) 53%
John McCain (R) 43%
This poll was done October 3-5 among 666 likely voters. These clearly contradict the Mason-Dixon poll late last week showing McCain ahead by 3%, but it seems poll after poll shows this state moving heavily in the Democratic direction. Survey USA is also out with polls for the Presdiential and US Senate races in new Hampshire showing Obama with a double-digit lead there as well.
PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Survey USA)
Barack Obama (D) 53%
John McCain (R) 40%US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Survey USA)
Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48%
John Sununu (R-inc) 40%
Ken Blevens (L) 7%
This poll was done October 4-5 among 647 likely voters. Rasmussen’s email today says we will be getting polls from Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado tonight as well as a poll from the US Senate race in Maine later today.
bed wetter number one!!
First!
Dang…
I dont buy those VA #s for 1 second, thats a joke
I live in SE VA, and I do not see anywhere near the energy here for Obama when compared to John Kerry four years ago. My middle class neighborhood was evenly split four years ago on yard signs, and this year I see ONE Obama sign, and many, many McCain signs.
as discussed below, the party ID breakdowns are rediculous. If you accept the premise that almost everyone in the country has changed party from R to D, then these polls make sense.
Kerpin
Class guy you must be.
Look at the internals…Virginia is not 39% Dem, 30% Republican.
If Obama wins, it’s Great Depression II for sure. Obama is an economic illiterate that thinks raising taxes on small business in a time of tight credit is a good idea.
However, as I explained below, both VA polls are jokes in bad taste as is the NH poll.
The SUSA Va poll is D+9 and the SUSA NH poll is D+8. Compared with the actual turnout demographic of both states, this is a joke. (VA is GOP+3 even in 2006 a bad GOP year).
Suffolk is hillarious with a 45D/31R/25I sample for D+14.
Garbage In==Garbage Out
-Polaris
We should do a writing campaign at RealClearPolitics so they dont use these numbers as a result.
😀
The “Polaris & Friends Spin Zone” show continues. Anyone who guages polls based on how many lawn signs are in their neighborhood is in for a rude awakening, since the Obama campaign’s policy at every single one of their offices to push canvassing over signs & stickers. Offices in the battleground states have slowed or even stopped stocking signs and stickers just to get people working on the campaign, and the response has been overwhelmingly positive.
Polaris,
Just looked up the NH exits from 2004.
R – 32
D – 25
I – 43
Are these polls some kind of joke?
#9 I would simply point out politely that most of these polls are using bad partisan turnout models and leave it at that.
THEN make the point on November 5 that RCP should change their model. If they do it now, they (RCP) comes across as ‘partisan hacks’ even if they are not. Changing the policy after the election, however, is sensible and likely to be accepted.
-Polaris
My God, some of these polls are reckless. +9/+14 D in Virgina? ROFL.
If I couldn’t get a yard sign, and was passionate about my candidate, I would make one, as many did around here for John Kerry in 2004. I don’t see much around here for Obama, handmade or anything. I have not seen any Obama canvassers either.
People on the Right, libertarians and conservatives, are now tossing the idea out of seccession. The choice? Obviously Texas.
This may be our only solution.
Obama is a Nazi. If the Germans in some German States in the 1930s had threatened seccession, maybe Hitler couldn’t have risen to power. At the least, they might have had a fighting chance to avoid his Fascism.
Same here. We need to begin to prepare ourselves. This is going to get real, real ugly.
#11 Yes a joke on us and in bad taste.
We are being played people.
-Polaris
Zombie (well named) and troll friends feel free to buy into these party IDs.
LOL
zombie,
So you believe in Virgina, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by a margin or 9 or 14 when in 2006, it was +3 GOP?
#15 Whoa….that’s a step too far.
-Polaris
Are these polls some kind of joke?
Comment by Phil —
yup.
Good night, see you in 2012.
#10 Do you really believe that there is a +14 D advantage in VA when in the middle of a Dem lanslide, VA showed a GOP+3 advantage only three years ago?
Really? Then I have some Montana beach-front property you might be interested in….
-Polaris
The sick thing is that even when the pollsters are proven to be way off on their numbers, there is nobody ‘above’ them to hold them accountable.
They hold a high seat of power that not many people even question, so they can shape the numbers however they choose. There is no justice for when they are blatantly dishonest.
And it certainly seems like the number of trolls on this site is about equal to non-trolls at this point. From now on, I’m keeping a running tally of which posters to just skip right over.
What should the Shenandoa region look like?
SUSA has it tied.
#15 – Finish polishing your tin foil hat? I’ve heard they don’t work so well when they’re dull.
#15 – Finish polishing your tin foil hat? I’ve heard they don’t work so well when they’re dull.
Sorry about the double post.
Rachel,
Its OK. We like things that come in pairs.
from AJStrata
More Poll Posting – Obama May Be In Real Trouble If Polls Weight Samples Wrong
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/6392
opinions please….
I don’t buy these polls.
Who steals these polls steals trash
Gallup today O 50/ M 42
I can’t believe that with someone that has as colorful a history as Obama there hasn’t been a bombshell yet. When do October surprises usually come out? Besides Ayers and Wright (which apparently haven’t stuck with the American people) is there a feeling that something may come up in the next week that could save McPalin?
LISTEN PEOPLE! The sample is WAY off! The media is pushing their candidate to supress voter turnout. The sample in the SUSA poll was Dem at 39 and GOP at 30. In 2006 the party ID in VA was about 35 GOP and 30 Dem.
Oil under $90.
15,19,25 – I won’t buy into the seccesion thing …yet. I would see something very bad happening if Obama were to get the votes to limit 2nd Amendment rights. As stated in a previous post we could perhaps partition the US into two economic regions, one high tax/high service, the other low tax low service. The only problem is libs need working people to tax in order to fund the nanny state.
The SurveyUSA is totally wrong. They have the Shen. VAlley as 48/48….I live in the Valley and there is no way it is 48/48 in the Valley. I would expect McCain is up 20 points in the Valley. This is wreckless !!!
#29 I know Strata. He’s seeing the same thing that I am.
-Polaris
“What should the Shenandoa region look like?
SUSA has it tied.”
That is why this poll is garbage.
Bush won Shenandoah Valley 62-38, a 24-point margin.
Obama will do worse in this region than Kerry did. Read yesterday’s article fro LA Times (that notable right-wing shill) about Democrats in the Valley.
“Frank talk of Obama and race in Virginia – LA Times, Oct 5, 2008”
“The isolated towns of Virginia’s Appalachian coal region are home to strong labor unions and Democratic political machines that date back generations. Yet voters here who eagerly pushed Democrats into the Senate and the governor’s office are resisting Barack Obama.
Some Americans say Obama’s race and uncommon background make them uncomfortable — here those people include Democratic precinct chairmen and get-out-the-vote workers.”
In short, Democrats in the region are not buying Obama.
The SurveyUSA is totally wrong. They have the Shen. VAlley as 48/48….I live in the Valley and there is no way it is 48/48 in the Valley. I would expect McCain is up 20 points in the Valley. This is wreckless !!!
Comment by David — 10/6/2008 @ 1
So we have gross Dem over-sampling and a solid mac area for Mac that is “tied”.
Thanks.
Is SUSA in the tank?
I wonder who paid for that poll.
David,
I live in Alexandria, and it’s 50-50 here. If it’s close here, McCain wins.
Granted, to head off critique from this hour’s Hedgehog Report troll, this is anecdotal. But also look at the party weighting in the polls. That ain’t anecdotal, so smoke it.
#39 SUSA is a classic robopoller. Their demographics are typically sloppy. They do tell you who paid for the poll, however (local VA TV networks near as I can tell).
-Polaris
It’s odd how trolls have no answers to the dissonance of party ID in the Virgina polls and actual party ID according to historic patterns.
2006: +3 GOP actual
2008: +14 Democrats in polls
AF Rico, Yes, if McCain can win 47% of NoVa, he wins. I can’t stress enough how incorrect the SurveyUSA poll is. What did they do, sample college towns in the valley?
I’ve never seen so many Presidential Republican signs before..
AF Rico – Kaine won 70-30 in Alexandria and 60-40 in Fairfax COunty. As much as I would like to beleive its 50-50 I am not sure. But you have boots on the ground and I will defer to you.
This is sickening. The MSM is so in the tank. when their polls are reconciled with reality on 11/5, assuming a narrow McCain win, baton the hatches. You are going to see a riot (and i use that word broadly to include massive litigation) unlike anything we saw in 2000 in Florida.
Folks,
As many others have stated, VA party affiliation is still solidly Republican — even in the terrible Dem landslide of 2006, VA REPUBS outvoted VA DEMS by 3%!
Here’s all you need to know about VA — watch the Indys.
Obama has to win indys by a good percentage — probably 6-10% at least, to even have a chance in Nov.
(Webb won Indys by about 10-12 over Allen to just squeak out an 8,000 vote victory in 2006.)
BTW — In the SUSA poll, MAC is still winning Indys.
Relax on VA!
I posted this on an ealrier thread but thought I would repost this on a more current thread:
Well — here is my Swan Song-
I have decided I will be leaving this blog. While I enjoyed hearing from Polaris, Lisa B and others, I need to leave this board to keep my sanity. I refuse to look at polls anymore. They are depressing me and it is better that I focus my energies on things that I can control, not on things that I can’t control.
The McCain campaign has no one but themselves to blame for the state of this campaign. During the RNC, they said “this campaign is not about issues.†By taking this tact they essentially permitted Obama to characterize himself as a moderate when he is nothing of the sort. But McCain never challenged Obama’s credibility on any of his proposals — never mind the fact that Obama’s proposals changed so much it was hard to keep track.
Conservatives enjoyed success over the last twenty years because we were always the party of ideas and viewed by Americans as the “adults†on various issues. Yet, McCain is refusing to engage in an important ideological debate. The truth of the matter is simple — America is a center right nation. I don’t care how Democratic the year is, a man like Barrack Obama should never have received serious consideration as a Presidential Candidate. His values are completely out of line with the values of most Americans. But by refusing to engage in an ideological debate, McCain has allowed Obama to dupe the American public.
John McCain has squandered three months by running a campaign filled with gimmicks instead of running substantive ads. (Example — the lipstick on a pig advertisement). McCain has allowed Obama to position himself as a tax cutter, when in reality he is nothing of the sort. McCain could have used Obama’s statement that raising taxes on all Americans is “fair†in an ad, but has refused to do so. There is also a youtube clip of Obama saying that we need to cut production for future defense technology. Once again, this great ad is conspicuously absent from the campaign trail.
While I think Reverend Wright and Bill Ayers are important — exceedingly important issues (we are about to elect a man who has more in common with Josef Stalin than George Washington), McCain should not have held his fire this long. He should have painted Obama as unacceptable for a long time. Furthermore, McCain neutralized the the effect of the Reverend Wright stuff when McCain said it is off limits. Off limits?! Obama greatly admired the teachings of this radical — so much so that he named his second book after one of Wright’s sermons. However, Senator Lieberman reiterated this was off limits this past Sunday. To attack Ayers, yet refuse to engage on Wright is –well — erratic. And unprincipled.
Unfortunately, the economic crisis will eat up all of the oxygen over the next month. McCain will seem petty talking about Obama’s radicalism while Obama is talking about the economy. And although McCain could attack all Democrats for their complicity in Fannie and Freddie, and the entire subprime crisis, and make an excellent argument that Obama’s policies contributed to this — McCain is choosing not to talk about this because it is too complicated an issue. I guess the economic crisis is one more issue that this campaign is not about.
Obama could only get elected under a perfect storm of conditions — the same conditions that brought to power some of the worst dictators the world has ever seen. Remember, most tyrants are chosen by the people — with Hitler being the prime example. The ascension to power of dictators typically has four common traits.
1. An extreme use of propaganda. Obama unquestionably is being propelled by the most uncritical media I have seen in my lifetime. They never vetted this man, and always spin Obama in the most positive light while spinning McCain in the opposite light. This extreme use of propaganda permits the radical to then perpetuate…
2. The Big Lie. It is much easier to lie big than lie small. Small lies are typically discrete and easy to debunk. Big lies are more complicated to debunk because they require a greater attention span by the listener. Obama has effectively perpetuated the Big Lie by appearing to be a moderate. He has fundamentally changed his veiws on nearly all of his positions during this campaign. Obama is more liberal than Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, but you would never know this today thanks to the propagandists in the mainstream media(and thanks to McCain failing to bring this point up, it is guaranteed it will never be known). Obama– a man influenced by the communist Saul Alinsky — is no moderate.
3. The personality cult. One way tyrants both acquire and maintain power is to become a symbol. Initially, this symbol seeks to instill hope. Through vague rhetoric, people start to project their hopes and dreams onto this symbol. Everywhere you go, Obama’s cult of personality is pervasive — people wearing pictures of him on T-shirts, children chanting for him, etc. Obama’s personality cult rivals that of Mao. Mao used his personality cult perpetuate his power by instilling fear in his subjects. Everywhere you went, you saw Mao’s face, but more importantly, you saw adoring people supporting Mao — that you feared worked for the state and therefore kept you from speaking against the state.
4. Crisis. Both Hitler and Lenin came to power during crises. Lenin came to power after Russia was defeated in WWI, while Hitler came to power during a depression. Crises lead to panic, and people who panic do not think straight and gamble on their leaders, hoping for something to help them. Obama is greatly benefiting from this current economic panic.
5. And finally — once in power, dictators manipulate the legal system to perpetuate their power. This is obvious. Obama is already starting to do this by manipulating the voting in Ohio. He is doing it through ACORN which specializes in voter fraud. And once elected, he will do it through the judges he appoints who have no respect for the rule of law and ignore the text of the law.
In summary, please don’t misunderstand what I am saying. I do not think Obama will become a tyrant because the US Constitution — the greatest document ever created by man — has structural safeguards in place that will prevent this. Those crucial safeguards being the separation of powers and federalism. Although this system can only work if the electoral system is not manipulated, Obama will not be able to completely shut down the electoral system once in power. He will need accomplices to do that — and if an Obama Presidency proceeds on a course that mirrors Obama’s ideology, I doubt that many accomplices will be available.
With that — have a good day and will see you all in 2012.
Comment by michael corleone — 10/6/2008 @ 1:45 pm
#45 No…starting on or about the 15th of October, Mac will get a mini-surge after “winning” the last debate (or something else…doesn’t matter).
The pollsters will insist on this in order to avoid becoming the next Zogby.
-Polaris
I don’t look at party ID too strongly. People here live and die by it. It’s important to look at poll trendlines, not individual polls.
If Gilmore has gone from the mid-30’s to the mid-20’s, then yes, it’s conceivable that Obama has built some kind of a lead in VA as well.
Remember what I said about the stock market. 11,000 is McCain’s magic number. It fell under 10,000 today.
Doesn’t look like Mac will take the gloves off tomorrow night…unless, hopefully some asks some questions re O’s radical past
McCain Debate Prep [Byron York]
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmI5ZWNiMmQ3Y2I0NDQwYjg4YWRiZjVjMThjNmJhMDY=
LOL, I remember after Bush won in 2004, there were liberals posting about the end of the world like Michael just did. Obama hasn’t even won yet. He can still screw this up.
McCain needs to not go on all-attack mode now, though. That is not what people want to hear.
#49 If you don’t look at partisan weights then you are making a dire mistake AITX. Look at self-identified party affilation every general election going back to 1968. Even in times of extreme turmoil and success for one party or the other, partisan identification is almost flat. It never favors one party over the other by more than 5 points (max was in 1996 at D+5) and it never changes by more than three in any successive cycle.
Those that think that D+7, D+9, or even D+11 are realistic are dreaming.
-Polaris
Gilmore is not in the mid 20s. Another piece of evidence that this polling is crap. He won’t come close of course, but he isn’t Alan Keyes.
A town-hall format is the last kind of format that you want to look like an attck dog in.
That said, negative campaigning works and Obama is a lot more vunerable than Mac because Obama is a relative newcomer (and has never been adequately vetted).
-Polaris
It’s not conceivable. Gilmore’s low number is due entirely to an irresponsible turnout model used by the pollster. That’s not to say I think Gilmore will win (because I don’t) but don’t believe the top line without careful analysis.
-Polaris
AIT,
Party trend lines in VA matter a great deal. They just don’t change much.
In the 2004 election when both sides were motivated it was R=39%/D=35%. Bush and Kerry each won about 93% of their party vote.
In 2006, when Dems were highly motivated and R’s were not it was R=39% and D=36%. Webb and Allen each received about 94% of their party vote. Webb squeaked out a victory by getting Indys to vote for him by +10% — exactly flipping GWB’s Indy margin versus Kerry.
Bottom line: In VA, party ID matters a great deal.
In VA — just watch the Indy vote. Obama probably has to win Indys by double digits to be assured of a narrow victory in VA.
Every poll that I’ve seen has shown MAC ahead in the Indy vote — even this recent SUSA poll.
I don’t look at partisan id because we’ve gotten odd results even when they seem on target. Plus, the people may be lying to the pollster about what party they are in. What I’m saying is that its a crapshoot, like any poll. Crapshoots mean nothing on their own, but taken as a whole, they make a statement.
On CNN after the debate, they talked to supposedly undecided voters. Some said they were “registered democrats,” but they were saying things that don’t indicate that and I highly doubted these people have voted democrat in 30 years. Others said what I expected a democrat to say.
Depending on the wording of the question, trying to match self-identified party id to historical voting patterns, or even to Registration numbers, is either suspect or pointless.
If the question is worded thus:
“Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, or an Indpendent?”
Then the data collected cannot be taken as actual voter registration. That COULD be one of the things we’re seeing in these Virginia polls. The numbers for Virginia look way off, but this could explain part of it. There are likely significant numbers of Registered Republicans who currently consider themselves Independents. Similarly, this could be true for each combination of Registration vs. Current feeling.
Even if the question is worded as:
“What is your current voter Registration: Democratic, Republican, or Independent?”
there are still going to be discrepancies (but probably not as many) between self-id and real registration.
This is why Rasmussen keeps a running poll of self-identified Registration. He calls thousands of people a month and asks them to self-identify, and creates targets for the country, based on self-identification. Then, he weights the self-identification numbers in his National polling to this target.
Now, Rasmussen is relying on thousands of calls reaching an accurate cross-section of the country. So, his methods are not perfect, but are superior to matching self-id to real registration numbers.
What we are likely to see is a D+3 or D+4 number on voting day in November, nationwide. This would be under “expectations”, using most current polls.
But, we are also likely to see Obama perform slightly better than “expected” among all three voter groups.
For example, if you took 100 average likely voters right now:
39 would self-identify as Dems
32 would self-identify as Reps
29 would self-identify as Indies
But, when those 100 average likely voters go to the polls, are signed in under their real names and are reminded of their actual true registration, those 100 will probably show up on the voter rolls as:
37 Dems
33 Reps
30 Indies
Those 100 people have no reason to vote any differently than they answered polls. But, the groupings of voters, and candidate performance within those groups, will be different from the poll numbers.
I’ve had time to think about the state of the race over lunch and Michael calling me a piss ant has forced me to change my view of the race. McCain is rolling and there is no denying it. All of the major national polling companies are colluding with the Obama campaign. I’m going to spend the next four weeks discussing who I believe McCain should nominate to the Supreme Court.
47., it is absolutely ridiculous to compare Obama to the likes of Stalin, Hitler, and Mao.
This is when you know the McCain supporters are really desperate, when they start spewing out comparisons to Hitler, Stalin, and Mao.
When is the terror alert going to go up to red?
#44 Knova-red,
I do have boots on the ground here. I don’t have the entire city/county breakdown, but have been pleasantly surprised at the level of support for McCain. Granted, I don’t live in Old Town (where all the uber-rich live…you know, the kind that don’t care if they pay more taxes, it assuages their liberal guilt over personal success), where there’s a strong Obama presence, but the rest of Alexandria is a lot of military–active duty and retired–voters.
It will be closer here than people think.
Remember the Fairfax McCain-Palin rally? I’m telling you, it will be better here than SUSA is saying, that’s for damn sure.
Once again, fellow posters, please remember your history from just a day ago. Maxon Dixon has McCain up 3 in Virgina.
That Brandon up at 2:01 is NOT ME.
FNC has the Obama Youth video as their head story.
The teacher has been suspended.
McCain just unloaded on the Obumbler about Fannie Mae. See Campaign Spot.
AF Rico,
How are you?
I agree. No doubt VA will be closer than Bush’s whopping 8 pt victory in 2004 — the last time VA was a “Battleground State.”
It’s just that polls showing D+9 or D+14 or even D+1 are so far off where the actual vote will be in Nov., they can’t be taken seriously (as we’ve discussed).
Again, folks, in VA, keep your eyes on the Indys. If it’s Obama +10, I will worry. But not until then.
BTW – I used 3 commas in the first 5 words of a sentence, and each was necessary. Not bad! 🙂
McCain just unloaded on the Obumbler about Fannie Mae. See Campaign Spot.
Comment by Tina — 10/6/2008
Just getting warmed up folks!
59-That’s the spirit. don’t you feel better now?
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/10/06/mccain-blasts-obama-democrats-for-fannie-mae-meltdown/
Add this one HD:
http://thepage.time.com/mccains-monday-remarks-in-albuquerque/
The MSM is over doing these polls. Pretty soon even the Obama supporters are going to stop trusting these outfits.
if mac loses va, he is toast unless he can pick up pa
AF Rico,
I do live in Old Town, and I assure you that I do care how much I pay in taxes and have no liberal guilt. In any case, Alexandria as a whole went 66% for Kerry in 2004, and based on what I’ve observed I suspect it will be more lopsided this time. Game-changing events excepted, of course. Time will tell, one way or the other.
Tim,
If MAC loses VA, he’s probably losing all the battleground states.
69- FINALLY !!!
Dow down 700- keep hammering on fannie and freddie- Ayers et al have to wait
Tim Van
If Mac loses VA- hes not winning PA- its that simple
Cory,
Rasmussen is sampling ADULTS to determine his partisan wieghts not voters…not even Registered Voters let alone likely voters. That’s not only using a poll to weight a poll, but it’s using a poll of a DIFFERENT thing to weight a poll.
If you think this is better than using hard historical turnout models then you’re dreaming. As others have already pointed out, partisan turnout percentages don’t change much from cycle to cycle.
-Polaris
#35 knova_red, Follow the money. Your Fed tax dollars flow from blue states to red states.
As expected, you guys are seriously displeased at these VA numbers. Self ID of party affiliation is just that – They may be registered Republicans, but have soured lately on identifying themselves with the brand. If you really want to do polling correctly, then start with a fresh list of registered voters from the State’s Secretary. [Isn’t that what real phonebanks use?]
I emailed Battleground the middle of last week and politely asked them why they changed their weighting methodology.
No response.
What was the MD partisan breakdown for VA? If it was R +6, then I’m going to be just as skeptical of that.
That said, I’m furious about these polls. Weights are NOT something that stem from bad sampling. Weights are constructed by the pollster. Weights of +9 and +14 for Dems in VA are ridiculously irresponsible. They’re just plain unethical.
The polling business in this country is almost 100% broken. They are manufacturing public opinion, not measuring it.
The market has taken a dramatic turn for the worse over the last hour. Down over 700.
#81 Heh. Took you this long to notice?
The difference between this year and 2004 is at least in 2004, the pollsters tried not to bend the historical models too badly.
This year? They are making it up from whole cloth in favor of the “chosen one”.
-Polaris
#80 Same here.
-Polaris
79-is that why two of the bluest states are asking the federal government to bail them out. There are working republicans even in the blue states. Just as there are lazy people in red states
“I don’t need lessons about telling the truth to American people. And were I ever to need any improvement in that regard, I probably wouldn’t seek advice from a Chicago politician.”
The Dow is down 20% just since Sept. 1. I hate to beat this dead horse (or dead bull) but I don’t see how McCain can win with this kind of market/economy sentiment. Certainly the jobs numbers won’t be any better this month. I fear that McCain is going to be a victim of terrible timing.
82-good thing we bailed them out last week. Congress should step in and recind the bailout. Let it rot. MAybe turning this whole mess over to the Dems would not be a bad idea. Let them fix it.
For those of you saying seeya till 2012, who do you want for your candidate? I would think Romney is the front runner since the economic crises seemed to be built for him.
87. I agree, like George H W Bush in 1992
#88 You don’t mean that I hope. If Obama is elected it is Great Depression II for certain. The man is an economic illiterate and his state policies in times of a credit crisis/money contraction are worse than unless…they are actively harmful as I’ve explained earlier.
The reason the Dow tanked today was not because of the so-called “bailout” bill. It was becasue the idiots at the ECB (European Central Bank) and the EU governments can’t get their act together to face a credit crisis in Europe/EU at least as bad as what we have here….instead the individual nations don’t want to make a hard choice and continue to put bandaids (individual bank bailouts) on bullet wounds.
I was fightened that the credit cascade would start here, but it could start in Brussels just as easily…..
-Polaris
DWu/#66- I guess that makes you a commanist. Sorry, that, was, bad.
The difference is in 1992, GH W Bush wins a two-man race.
-Polaris
#89 – Nice try.
I certainly do mean it. I am a capitalist and we are in this problem because of a confluence of government and big business collusion. Believe me I have more skin in this game and a lot more to lose than most people here. We will have a lot of pain over the next two to three years regardless of who gets elected.
Well, if Obama is elected, we won’t have to worry about illegal aliens anymore. There will be no jobs for them in the US.
#95 You know that Obama is an economic illiterate. You know what that will mean to the American people if Obama’s plan is enacted in this climate. It would be Hoover all over again.
I consider myself fairly nickle-plated, but even I’m not *that* nickle-plated. The human cost of an Obama win to this country is just too high.
-Polaris
This has to be rock bottom for the stock market. If it isn’t, then this election is the last thing Americans need to worry about. We are talking about a world wide depression here. There is nothing McCain or Obama could do about it.
#96 Heh. Not the way I’d choose the solve the problem….
-Polaris
100
#98 We’ll see. The problem is the idiots in the EU can’t get their act together and the ECB is trying to put bandaids on bullet holes as a result.
-Polaris
Maybe Obama will get us out of it the same way that FDR did…an old fashioned shooting war.
All of this is the result of a good intention of letting the poor own houses that they can’t afford.
I will say the road to Depression is paved with good Democrat intentions.
“Rasmussen is sampling ADULTS to determine his partisan wieghts not voters…not even Registered Voters let alone likely voters. That’s not only using a poll to weight a poll, but it’s using a poll of a DIFFERENT thing to weight a poll.”
That’s just in his state polls isn’t it and not in his daily tracking polls?
A depression will put trust in Washington in the tank. No money for federal employees so massive furloughs, SS and Medicare will be means tested. No more student loans so the cost of college goes down. I see all of this as a plus.
#102 Wonderful (sarc). I did mention something about the human cost I think….
-Polaris
#104 It’s for his daily track too IIRC.
-Polaris
Wow. I am absolutely amazed that you republicans refuse to believe the whipping you are currently receiving and the bruising you will get on election day. For people who claim to be so smart, you certainly do horrible jobs reading polls. Let me help you out. When polls are this consistent, there is no amount of talk about “liberal bias” that will explain away the results. Perhaps you should have paid attention in math class instead of going hunting and to Bible study. I’ll have fun dancing on your political graves come November. Have fun in the minority party for the next generation guys!!! LOL!!!
Welcome to Dave, our newest troll.
Dave,
Please explain to me why a poll used +14 for the Democrats when in 2006, it was +3 for the GOP in Virgina?
What ever floats your boat Dave.
This is what McCain should be talking about now;
ACORN LINK
Hmm…the most recent surveyUSA poll of CA had it 53 to 43 for Obama, with a party breakdown of 39R, 44D, 16I. OK, lets just re-weight it arbitrarily so that its 49R, 32D, 17I. McCain leads in CA!!!
This is in essence what they are doing in VA.
A Dem — presumably an American — making fun of God and guns. How original.
Polaris, if you think that matching self-id to real registration is better than matching self-id to self-id, then YOU are dreaming.
In this environment, an electorate which claims to be D+7 over the phone will not be recorded at the polls as D+7, but this does not mean that D voters are staying home.
Voters can not be counted on to accurately report registration.
The points that you bring up about the polls have some validity, but not nearly to the extent that you claim.
The National polling average of Obama +6 right now would turn in to something like Obama +4 at the voting booth, were the election held tomorrow.
It would not turn in to McCain +3, as you have claimed. That is some serious dreaming.
Jeff S — Not too bad! 🙂
Thanks for the laugh!
This is what McCain should be talking about now;
ACORN LINK
anyone see the fantastic Palin rally over the weekend in Los Angeles area? McCain campaign can take us in the golden state if he wants –
Obama Sought HUD Grant for Donor’s Project
Barack Obama last year sought a multimillion-dollar federal grant for a Chicago housing project that is behind schedule and whose development team includes a longtime political supporter
FOXNews.com
This crisis ALL STARTED WITH FANNIE MAE AND FREDDY MAC, TWO GOVERNMENT RUN AGENCIES!
OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATS ARE VERY VULNERABLE. MCCAIN SHOULD HIT HARD WITH THIS 24/7.
GET THE TRUTH OUT!!!!
my 2 cents about this election http://pawatercooler.com/?p=7021
Obama May Have Overstated Role in State Ethics Reform
SPRINGFIELD, Illinois: Barack Obama likes to give himself star billing for his role in enacting ethics reforms in Illinois a decade ago, but was part of an ensemble that negotiated the legislation and built support for it
AP
Monday, October 06, 2008
Cory,
History is on my side and not yours. Do the research. Check out the self-id partisanship for all elections back to 1968 and see for yourself.
Partisan weights DON’T CHANGE (or at least change very little) from election to election.
Using a turnout model that assumes otherwise is FANTASY.
-Polaris
It looks like some of the panic on Wall Street is starting to cool down.
115 – Polaris never claimed the electorate would be “McCain +3” as you state. The exit polls in 2006 reflected a partisan advantabe for the Democrats of +3, and Polaris has stated that the partisan composition of the electorate in 2008 will likely be similar to the composition in 2006 (i.e., D+3). He never said it would be R+3, as you state. You misrepresent his position by a net of six points.
124-like most temper tantrums this one will wear itself out.
126…it gets about so low before the bargin hunters can hold themselves back no longer.
Looks like a good time to buy to me. Buy low, sell high.
ANy word on Palin’s crowd size in FL?
Mose, you are confusing partisan id with vote.
Oil drops $6 to below $88 on demand concerns
PrinMon Oct 6, 2008 2:43pm EDT
Cory
I think you are finally agreeing with me on this party ID business. I have been claiming for months here that voters in polls who self identify party ID is wildly inaccurate. Here’s what I have been saying.
a. In those 27 states that register by party when you ask people what party they identify with its very confusing. Shouldn’t one ask what party they are registered as? Its confusing to a democrat in West Virginia or NC to identify what party they identify with. Many of these registered democrats there always vote republican and yet they are registered democrats.
b. In addition as I have stated many times. If you in Ohio and voting for local republican state senator and congressman and yet you are voting for Obama. What party do you identify with? Are an independent, marginal democrat or marginal republican?
C. I also convinced that for those folks who are a little confused it becomes, marginally, a vote on the guy in the white house. Folks say “NO” to Bush and yet that’s not a certain “NO” to McCain. Yet by saying “NO” during the Party ID poll in the next your symbolic vote as a democrat is certainly 75% chance for Obama.
The Party ID question is a confusing-wrongly worded way of determing the winner in most polls.
Non-Partisan Voter Registration Worker Admits Telling People to Vote for Obama
AP
I am afraid the Psy-Ops are working on me. I chalk much of this up to being a Cubs fan, but I can’t stand this feeling and wish I could be brought back from the ledge.
I don’t give a darn about the national popular vote and national polls anymore, but we absolutely have to win Virginia.
I really hope that Mason-Dixon is more accurate than these two weekend only polls.
Yes, I would agree with that rdelbov.
There is almost certainly some mis-representation going on in these self-id questions.
When you see a National poll of D+12 using self-id, how much is mis-representation by voters not registered as Democrats, and how much is over-sampling of Registered Democrats?
We don’t know, but it’s a good assumption that both are occurring.
Hannity playing the clip of Obama responding months ago to the ONE question the MSM asked him about Ayers. Obama said that Ayers is not someone he “exchanges ideas with…”(paused)…then he adds the caveat, “on a regular basis”
This means that Obama DOES exchange ideas with Ayers at times. He exchanges ideas with an unrepentent domestic terrorist.
There will be no new large spending programs via a president Obama now. If he tries to “tax the rich to achieve fairness”, or whatever other crap he spouts he will find there are not enough of such to do that. Especially with the loss of wealth we are now experiencing. When you want to redistribute wealth you first have to create the wealth. Hope his worshippers realize that. He will be enacting a huge tax rise on everybody or else he will be able to enact nothing.
Be prepred for the release of Rasmussen’s swing state polls this evening too. Since he has such awful national numbers and polls on Sundays only, these should be just awful.
Last Monday’s Rasmussen/Fox News polls were pretty good considering what they could have been (I don’t even care about PA anymore), but yeah, they probably aren’t going to be fun to look at.
As a strategic matter, I think McCain needs to point out to the public that Obama is very close to being elected President and that people need to look at that situation and determine if they really want one party controlling everything with large majorities, particularly when Obama is someone who strictly conducts himself on a down the line party basis.
Trichet at the ECB is an absolute idiot. He has taken his mandate to provide price stability as some immutable inviolate monolith, and is going to take down the entire global economy with it. ECB needs to have an emergency out of meeting rate cut NOW (of at least 2%). Get the interest rate differentials with the USD reduced, and there may yet be some time (although i am not optimistic) that the cascade failure can be averted. If he doesn’t, DOW 9800 is going to be but a distant memory. This, folks, is deadly serious.
My predictions for Rasmussen today:
CO – Obama 53, Mccain 44
FL – Obama 52, McCain 46
MO – Obama 49, McCain 44
OH – Obama 50, McCain 46
VA – Obama 51, McCain 45
Polaris-
Much to my embarassment I questionsed you on election day 2004, because I was new to the site and fairly ignorant as to polls. I won’t repeat that mistake again so I am not going to panic with all that seems to be going against McCain and simply look at your post.
I do have a question that may show I am naive or at the very least financially challenged when it comes to the market. I realize what is happening has been a long time coming. What I was wondering is if it is possible for Soros and those like him to be messing with the market to the extent that it keeps it in the turmoil it is in long enough for everyone to get so panicked that they will vote for O out of blind ignorance.
140-had the Fed concentrated on price stability I am convinced there would not be a problem right now. Unfortunately we had a lot of fun when our economy was artificially supercharged.
ANy word on Palin’s crowd size in FL?
DOW now off ‘only’ 360
McCain calls Obama a liar
Oct 6 03:44 PM US/Eastern
By PHILIP ELLIOTT
Associated Press Writer
Inernal polls supposedly show a different story than what the other pollsters are showing, right Polaris?
I wonder why the Florida Republican party is ticked off, hummmm …
“As an apparent sign of the tension between the state party and the McCain campaign, Florida Republican Party chairman Jim Greer is welcome to attend the events, as long as he makes his own travel arrangements.
The snub comes after Greer forced a tense, top-secret meeting Tuesday with McCain’s Florida team and offered a critical take on what it needs to do to prevail in the must-win state.”
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article840494.ece
#143 I totally agree–Greenspan lowering the rate of borrowing to esentially zero utterly debased the dolar. But I am talking about right here and now–ECB was, as recent as July still raising rates, and Trichet has been talking tough even now. He needs to cut rates and NOW.
WOW …DOW could end the day above 10,000!
DOW back over 10,000
DOW back over 10,000
Sharon,
I don’t think so. Soros is a billionaire, but to create a credit crisis out of whole cloth would take trillions. I wouldn’t put actions past Soros mind you, but this was good old fashioned socialist housing that got us into this mess.
In short, Soros IMV had little to do with it.
-Polaris
DOW over 10000 again!
Dow back up over 10,000.
#76…He should have done this two weeks ago. I wonder if he isn’t a day late and a dollar short. Will the people really listen or will they see it as a desperate trick to gain in the polls. I guess I don’t have much confidence right now in the voting public.
sorry for dups…its slow today
I guess I wasn’t the only one watching for the 10,000.
LOL
Hmmm, interesting. You do realize that most of the early drop was due to European selling causes by a brain-dead ECB, right?
-Polaris
btw, the “collateral damage” of this whole thing may be the death or severe wounding of the euro. all the european countries are squabbling now about what action should be taken–not exactly a harbinger of currency stability especially since the euro is not backed by any one country.
Hahaha …Dow closed above 10,000.
Not so dire after all.
#159 – I was talking to my husband about that the other day. If things get heated between the Dems & Reps, I can’t even imagine how they’ll get between the different Euro countries.
I can’t believe all of the denial in here. Your party, the absolute worst in the history of the Unites States with record deficit, reckless spending, bathroom stall gay sex scandals, a worthless war, and the list goes on and on and on, and now you expect the American electorate to give YOU another chance? LOL Fools. Happy blogging, It’s all you have left.
160…I am sure messy is disappointed.
I think Drudge needs a new headline:
HELLO 10,000!!!
OMG, THAT Yahoo ticker lagged. It closed barely below 10,000.
Thank you for dropping by Patrick. Yes we ar all in denial and halfway delusional. Now that we have established that why do you feel it necessary to let us know something that is so obvious?
Mac and Palin also have to state what they are going to do…with specifics…The polls are going bad for them and no matter how it is explained, the bad poll numbers will be foder for the MSM and they will pound it and pound it so that all the “sheeple” believe, just like they have brainwashed these youth to worship Obama…Mac and Sarah not only have to come out fighting but also come out completely explaining what their specific plans are…I fear a landslide if Mac and Sarah are not on their game EVERY DAY of the last month of this campaign and they better be hitting GOP states and battleground states (FL,NC,VA,MO,OH,PA,CO,NV,WI,MN)
161…things are heated. If someone pointed me to a battlefield where I we could fight a second civil war against liberal dems, I would be right there to grab my musket and sword to try and save the country. We are at the point where America simply may no longer survive.
I really appreciate the workd Dave puts into this site and if it wasn’t for a few on here I would have probably given up a long time ago. However, I do wish Dave would just drop his EV count. Nothing is more depressing especially when you know it is totatlly wrong but still plays on the heart strings.
Save the country from Liberal DEMS? My God neo-cons. Your CONSERVATIVE George Bush did well for the country creating the largest deficit in the HISTORY of man kind? You people need medication.
Howard Dean 129
10k
Rally crowd welcomes Palin
http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2008/10/6/388046.html?title=Rally+crowd+welcomes+Palin
The women wore moose antlers and the men wore lipstick.
kb
The problem is the EV count may just turn out the way Dave has it…This isnt going well. I just hope Mac doesnt totally turn into an “attack” machine…With voter “angst” where it is at, I think what you will do for the country is a better angle (throwing in a little remember whom Obama is now and then)…The continuing of the economic crisis will not help the GOP. McCain has got to nail this tomorrow or it may be over.
bush spent too much and obama will spend far more. Keep in mind, the favorable budgets during the clinton years resulted from significantly reducing the percentage of gdp spent on the military, due to the reagan created peace dividend. It had nothing to do with much of anything else. What makes anyone think Obama will spend less than McCain?
God McCain’s an IDIOT. With the economy being the forefront…why on God’s GREEN earth did he pick that BIMBO?
Dude, Bush isn’t a conservative. Never was.
Jason you sound like a very intelligent articulate guy. I could never argue with that logic. Is your’s the typical thought process of the average democrat?
Trolls are running amok. Now they calling Palin a bimbo. At least she doesn’t have the notion that FDR was on the TV in 1929.
However, she could have never provided the leadership needed to drive Hezbollah out of Lebanon. Where would be then?
Bush isn’t a conservative yet you came out in droves to re-elect the IDIOT dogs and people couldn’t marry. Intelligent.
Wrap your minds around these F A C T S. Per Forbes magazine, the top 3 presidents in US, Post World War history, are all DEMS. Republicans FAIL. SIMPLE as that. Look at all the numbers. It’s astonishing.
Postwar Presidencies Ranked By Six Measures Of Economic Performance:
#1 Clinton #2 Johnson #3 Kennedy
Why on God’s GREEN EARTH would you even consider electing A Republican considering the state our country is in? How many failed Republican administrations will it take before you realize you are consistently voting against your best interests.
John McCain, I AM NOT a Georgian, I AM AN AMERICAN. Start putting the interests of MY COUNTRY 1st!!!!
http://www.forbes.com/2004/07/20/cx_da_0720presidents.html
Polaris and MDefl,
europe is having major problems, which if you recall was my major worry last week.
it is just much harder for the europeans to be united than for us to be behind the fed.
the germans in particular do not want to drop interest rates, and do not want to pay for the problems in other countries.
sooooo … it is europe that is imo the big problem …
not least of all because we have already had a lot of pain … they have not. they have been spouting a lot of big talk about the usa’s financial worries … and now they could be sliding into the abyss.
the united kingdom is thanking their lucky stars they still have the british pound which they can somewhat control.
france and italy are screwed because germany will not play ball with them
Anybody on here have any idea what the moron #179 just said?
Your little part is IMPLODING. Must be very sad for you.
Oh perhaps Palin is not as smart as Obama. At least she is not running a 57 state campaign.
Let the trolls have their fun. Remember, no matter who wins:
1. The rich will remain rich
2. The poor will remain poor and more than likely get poorer
3. The talented people (small business) will find a way to make things work
4. Untalented people will still have problems and blame it on who ever is in power.
Where do you think our trolls are of those 4? Coming in here and piling on us is pretty much all they have after World of Warcraft.
Guys…this is horrible news. Something is going on. This is the 5th poll showing Obama with the lead in NC, our stronghold of Republican moronicness!
By Eric Dienstfrey
Public Policy Polling (D)
10/4-5/08; 1,202 LV, 2.8%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 50 McCain 44
Sounds like the initiating meeting for the Daily Kukos, or Moveon-.org.
“bush spent too much and obama will spend far more. Keep in mind, the favorable budgets during the clinton years resulted from significantly reducing the percentage of gdp spent on the military, due to the reagan created peace dividend.”
the dems plan to spend a lot less on the military too.
they want to cut the size to a point we can not invade other countries without the UN.
it would however be most likely done through modest cuts or a freeze in military spending rather than wholesale slashing of the military budget.
I see a new script has been issued for the trolls. The new term is “Gods Green Earth”. Again, if we are so delusional, why even bother with us?
Ok, #186 is not mine. Somebody is using my nbame, one of the trolls.
#187 is mine.
The question of how many Rep/Dem/Ind there are is CRUCIAL – because pollsters take 600 odd people and then expand the results based on THEIR understanding of how many people fall into each category.
I worked an election a generation ago when voter representaion was changing rapidly to Rep from Dem and the polls where I was were showing the Dems holding thier own – come election day it was all Rep. The ISSUE now is are we seeing a similar collapse of a party – this time the Rep? I’ll know more November 4th – stay tuned.
I am a life long Republican and I am voting Obama this time. I’ve had enough. Until the Republicans start electing true conservatives who respect the fact that war should only be waged IF attacked, and so on, I will try my luck with this intelligent, intriguing man. This will be good for America. Republicans needs to find young, brilliant leaders and come back in 8 years. I’m done.
I see someone is impersonating Tina. ROFL …the trolls!
Well trolls, I guess it was Palin that thought that France helped us drive out the Hezbollah from Lebanon.
Oh wait….that was Biden…..
-Polaris
‘Anybody on here have any idea what the moron #179 just said?”
the defense of marriage act maybe … that prevents dogs and people from marrying?
Someone is impersonating Tina! Guys, to me that IS a banning offense.
Sarah,
Babe, honey. That script is about 2 months old. You will have to do better than that. Back to your hole, troll.
Yeah, these polls are scaring me Tina. But I keep the faith, even though a McCain loss will deeply sadden me. He is truly the better man for the presidency and deserves it more than this idiot.
Does anyone know how much a rape kit costs? Palin says I need to get my own.
Whenever someone use the term “life long Republican”, he or she is surely a seminar poster.
#186
Weighted Polling
Dem 48%
Rep 35%
Ind 17%
I can’t imagine that North Carolina has that many D’s.
#191 Such a thing has never happened in modern political history, LIAR.
Do the research. Party ID in general elections has never been greater than a +5 advantage (+5 Dem in 1996) and has NEVER shifted by more than three points in any given cycle.
-Polaris
Todd, it ain’t me, I did not post #186.
It should be a banning offense imo.
Well, well, well… I see we have attracted the attention of the hate mongers from the left. Welcome!!!
Todd,
in a time of war against terrorists how could a war hero be better than obama who is actually friends with terrorists?
he knows how terrorists think …
use your head todd
(it is also why he will finally clean out the skinheads and kkk … it takes someone who goes to a racist church to deal with racist organizations)
I too have seen the light. I am a lifelong conservative Republican who now sees that Barack is indeed “the one”. He is intellegent, honest, and just his election will make all our problems disappear. We are so lucky he was sent to us.
Harvard Law Grade, #1 in his class, or a man who sat in a hole in NAM, was an IDIOT student. Economy, crisis. Hmmm… I can’t decide who to vote for.
Yup, the trolls are out using several posters’ names. If they are so ahead, why come here, use different handles – including impersonating other posters, and lie?
180-I get Forbes and they are not supporting Obama right now. And just where was Carter in that group.
Kennedy – Lowered taxes accross the board. Obama won’t do that.
Johnson – Souped up economy due to government spending for Guns and Butter (Viet Nam and Great society) I assume you are advocating a greater war just when we are getting out of one
Clinton- No serious problems worldwide and in 1994 a Republican Congress that wrote the spending bills that balanced the budget. It helped that he was in the right place at the right time for massive productivity shifts due to technology as well as an influx of tax revenues from the tech bubble.
I will grant you this Republicans in Congress went native and forgot why people put them there and Bush went along with it. With the exception of Johnson The democrats, Kennedy and Clinton acted at least fiscally like Republicans
Two polls say Chambliss is now in a dogfight in Georgia:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d5a7a783-7aaa-4e2e-bd61-89885fbe2d75
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/6/1152/98507/228/618110
Dave,
If you are reading this, could you ban the IP of the commentor on 186? I am all for Dems having their own opinions and I am NOT even for banning trolls but impersonating one of our regulars goes to far, imo.
Tina,
in respect, there could be two Tina’s
it is not clear the troll was intentionally impersonating you
You would think that one could go to DU and Daily Kukos sites and gloat there.
BANNING OFFENSE. TROLLS, TROLLS, TROLLS.
ON MCCAIN!!!!!
if the keating 5 is the best obama has in mccain he is in trouble. that was a long time ago and one of the reasons why mccain pushed for campaign reform.
i will have to go with the war hero,
not the friend of terrorists
Lisab, I have no respect for liberal trolls that lie and impersonate intentionally.
I just believe its one poster using several different names when it choses him to do so.
211
It could be a new poster also called “Tina”.
kb
I beleive that person resides in FL.
“Lisab, I have no respect for liberal trolls that lie and impersonate intentionally.”
nor do i … but it may have not been intentional
Gee, I am good.
“I just believe its one poster using several different names when it choses him to do so.”
could be.
MCCAIN NEEDS TO LASH OUT AT THIS ASS TOMORROW. HOLD NO PRISONERS. IF MCCAIN DOES GO DOWN, HE WILL GO DOWN SWINGING.
guys I’m sitting in a symposium at Columbia right now on the election and of four unbiased speakers three are attendi g an Obama fund raiser afterwards and the other is hosting it. This is what we face in academia
Wow, Republicans have now gone from +1 in NC to -13 in 4 years.
Sure they have.
FYI – Patrick, Gina, Jason, Tom, and Sarah and the person imitating Tina are all the same person.
Dave W
It is, when that poster resides in FL.
I know who it is.
is factcheck.org ALSO in the tank for Obama ?
http://www.therealitycheck.org/2008/09/19/mccain-or-obama-how-about-this-referendum/
how deep is the obama msm conspiracy ?
227 – sounds like multiple personality disorder.
Dave W – there seems to be somebody impersonating some of the regulars here, including myself, but you are on top of it as usual.
From Al-Ap:
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) – Republican John McCain is calling Democratic rival Barack Obama a liar.
The GOP presidential candidate told a campaign rally: “Sen. Obama has accused me of opposing regulation to avert this crisis. I guess he believes if a lie is big enough and repeated often enough it will be believed.”
In some of the harshest language yet, McCain said the campaign comes down to a simple question: Who is the real Barack Obama?
McCain drew the loudest cheers when he said the Democrat has written two memoirs but “he’s not exactly an open book.”
Trailing in the polls, McCain and his advisers say they will hammer that theme as the campaign heads toward the Nov. 4 election.
Where did MAC call the Obumbler a liar?
Any guesses on how many people are ACTUALLY behind all these troll aliases? My guess is 4.
Tina, impersonating somebody else certainly seems like an ip-bannable offense.
170…liberalism is the mental disease that is ruining the country. Bush was no economic conservative.
There is also a Lisa too??
hah… I swear I didn’t see 227 before my post in 232
If ou take the right Party ID
then you get these results:
for NH:
BHO:47.2% JSMC:46.0% a dead heat
for VA:
BHO:45.3% JSMC:51.2%
Phil..what moron just said…
Don’t try to figure them out. If you ignore them you will eat less Tums.
I usually am against banning unless there is profanity or impersonation….
“FYI – Patrick, Gina, Jason, Tom, and Sarah and the person imitating Tina are all the same person.”
I’m waiting for Sybil.
kb
Again, everyone chill out. McCain should not go for the throat tomorrow night. Let the 527’s do that job. McCain needs to position himself as the experienced reformer who has relationships with members of both parties and can truly effect change.
The Ayers, Wright stuff is best left to proxies and Palin. McCain has to rise above the fray because a direct attack on him AND to him (BO) could backfire.
Hey, Trolls. Someone at Barackthevote screwed up your schedules. You guys are supposed to alternate your shifts, not hit us all at once.
The fact that anyone picked Johnson as one f the top 3 President’s shows how insignifigant Forbes is. The democratic party itself hardly acknowledges Johnson and Carter much less would put him in the top 3. This is about the funniest thing I have read today and the fact that the person that posted it was actually using it as an argument makes it that much more humorous.
I agree with Mdefl – remember its a town hall style debate with independent and undeciders (LOL).
The town hall style debate will not be the best format for MAC to get overly nasty with.
Better to let the gloves off in speeches today made by him and Palin.
CNN/OR:
Obama – 53
McCain – 45
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/06/cnn-poll-obama-advantage-grows/
56% of respondents feel that McCain will continue Bush’s policies.
#240
Unfortunately, it will be hard for McCain to position himself as such since he votes with GWB 90% of the time.
Sharon – I read Forbes and it is pretty good. Very libertarian and not nearly as establishment as my other favorite the WSJ. That is an old article.
Actually Factcheck isn’t unbiased any more.
Factcheck is run by the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the Univ of Pennsylvania. The Obama was up to his eyeballs in the Chicago branch of this overall organization.
If Factcheck has slanted to Obama this year, well, it’s not your imagination.
-Polaris
#247…Still…I can’t even imagine a democrat polled would pick Johnson. Where would Forbes get that from?
I mean, Johnaon was not only an embarrasment to his party but the whole country as well.
Good ol’ objective CNN!
Thanks.
Their news coverage isn’t in the tank and neither is their polling.
CNN/OR? What is their poll sample, 100% D?
The mainstream media is just trying to get their black candidate elected.
America will never elect a muslim.
Look at the article, he was just basing it on statistics. He also says questions how much influence a prisident actually has on the economy. Remember that all of FDR’s policies were failure until we started tooling up for WW2. Johnson spooled up the war machine then increased government spending on social programs and viola a humming economy. He handed Nixon the mess and he didn’t know what to do with it.
If yiu guys could hear what they are spewing you’d be shocked. They call dems cukuurally elite and republicans wal-marters!
It’s insane!
254-Blackberry issues?
they use the new York times as the centrist view!! It’s insane
If Obama defeats McCain this November, I’m wondering if that will actually be good for the Republican Party. Perhaps the GOP can regroup, drop the culture wars, and go back to its libertarian roots.
kb
#253–
You’re right. Actually, I’d look at the economic policies of the PRECEDING president to assign blame/responsibility, in many cases.
Sy asked: “Please explain to me why a poll used +14 for the Democrats when in 2006, it was +3 for the GOP in Virgina?”
Neither SurveyUSA nor Suffolk are using incorrect weights. The problem is that they are NOT using weights. They are simply taking random samples of Virginia voters and believing their results are representative of the actual voters. When they get Dem +9 or Dem +14, what that means is that they are over-sampling Democrats — and probably not on purpose. As Polaris and others have pointed out, there are many different reasons why Dems are more available for polls than Republicans.
By the way, I recalculated SurveyUSA’s numbers, using the 2006 partisan mix (R39, D36, I25) and I got Obama 49% McCain 47%, a 2% Obama lead (instead of 10%). This is STILL concerning, but we must also consider that SurveyUSA has Obama winning a higher percent of Democrats (89%) than McCain is winning Republicans (83%). With the effects of Hillary in Appalacia, I think very few of us believe this is true.
Reality is coming to hit fantasy land here smack in the face:
“CNN Poll: Obama advantage grows”
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/06/cnn-poll-obama-advantage-grows/
The old geezer and cocktail waitress might as well throw in the towel…
RNC unloads its Ayers files.
Link at Drudge
Man where are these guys coming from today?
Question about polling–
The way some trolls are posting here, you’d think that the survey firms just call a random sample, and report the findings. If you get +12 Dems in VA in your sample, that’s what you report. That would signify to them that Dem enthusiasm/turnout is going to be MUCH higher in November. That’s an issue of sampling.
However, my understanding was that many of these pollsters were using bad WEIGHTS. They drew a sample, and then reweight the results based on the identification or turnout model they presupposed. This is a very different issue than the first.
So I’m indeed worried if pollster after pollster is, as Cory is suggesting, drawing samples that show HUGE pro-D ID in states like VA and NH. But I’m less worried if these pollsters are using ridiculously biased weights.
Does anyone know which it is? Do some pollsters use strategy A, and some strategy B?
Its all one poster, using different handles.
Why bother with us here, if Obumbler is so far ahead???
OK, so AIN may have just answered my question as I was typing it.
I am getting a kick out of them. All the scripts are in play today. There must be a huge push from Axelrod. The BO internals must not look nearly as good as the msm bought, paid for and manipulated polls.
CamRep,
Good points. I generally agree, but I’d caution that while a heavy Dem sample may show Dem enthusiasm now, it doesn’t necessarily translate to votes on election day, especially considering that the storyline will change at least once, if not twice, more by Nov.
an update on this section is called god guns and gays. Why bubba and his NASCAR friends vote republican. I’m not making this up…this is a supposed bipartisan symposium at Columbia
AIN,
Regarding your reweigting of SUSA — don’t believe for a second that MAC will only get 83% of R’s.
VA R’s are very, very loyal. An unpopular GWB got 93% of R’s in 2004 and a heavily damaged George Allen got 94% of R’s in 2006.
Expect VA R’s to vote over 90% for MAC.
Check the link to Jay Cost’s (RCP) graph here:
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/10/06/video-mccain-unloads-on-obama/
He suggest attacking Ayers/Wright, says there is HUGE opportunity there.
DUH!
We’re on it!!
#259–
I’m not so sure about Obama’s support among Dems in VA. Poll after poll in VA has suggested that he is doing better there among Dems than he’d doing elsewhere. Now, part of this could be undersampling rural areas, but is it possible that Obama has fewer PUMA problems in VA, comparatively speaking? After all, what % of VA Dems are black and/or educated, suburban whites (i.e., Obama’s base)?
HD,
I think BO SHOULD be attacked on Ayers. However, I don’t think Mac should do it tomorrow night. It is just not a good forum for that sort of thing.
I don’t think Mac should do it tomorrow night. It is just not a good forum for that sort of thing.
Comment by MDefl — 10/6/2008
Agree 100%.
He must reduce Obama to zero on the economy tomorrow.
Demand he list specific accomplishments in dealing with the economy and crises.
He has nothing to point to.
Nothing.
Ask for SPECIFICS.
I almost forgot to link this. Someone from N.O.W. with some common sense. Go figure.
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/10/05/america-this-is-what-a-feminist-looks-like.php
271-Northern Va has one of the highest per capita number of advanced degrees and many of them work for the government. The chardonay and latte types are in Western Loudoun County and are the horse riding uber rich. I believe that somewhere above there is an AA electorate of about 17%. Most of the bluedog types are in the sparsely populated SW of the state. Many mining families and the Union had endorsed Obama. Bush got 54% in 2000 and 60% in 2004 in SW. The congressmen that come out of that area are generally conservative populists.
VA is turning purple there is no doubt about it. If we could give NOVA back to DC we would be OK.
I just happended by here…Man, most of you are truly desparate! The way most of you see it, Obama is the anti-christ! As well as the end of our civilization as we know it!…give me a break, we just sufferred thru the WORST president in history. No matter what, he can’t be that bad…the world will still exist tomorrow as we know it…and if seccession is possible, let me throw my state of California out there first!…as for Texas, if you really want to leave, see ya!
Mac should leave the attacks on Obama’s personal associations to Palin and the 527s.
Remember, Mac has tended to perform very well in town halls, while Obama has had trouble “connecting.” These are the hardest debates to practice for; you just can’t replicate the environment in a practice setting.
My hope is that enough people tune in tomorrow to see Obama’s likely faltering. Perhaps the Mac campaign should advertise a “possible special appearance by Sarah Palin!”
Cam Rep,
Kerry got 93% of VA Dems. Webb got around 94%.
VA Dems are very loyal as well.
Both sides show up on election day. R’s outvote Dems even in bad years.
In VA, it’s all about Indys. And in poll after poll after poll, even in bad polls, MAC leads among VA Indys — often by double digits.
277…..I fear that Obama is going to keep the subject on the economy because that is where he won on the last debate. McCain can’t come out swinging and it was obvious that the economy was McCain’s weakest link. Maybe I am wrong but I am just hoping that McCain will hold his own.
I wish Palin was debating Obama.
What are the odds that a conservative Republican is sitting on the phone calling people all day at these polling outfits while being surrounded by pro-Obama people in the cubicles surrounding him/her? Where are the call centers located? That gives you a snapshot of the people working there. Pretty sure there aren’t any in OK, TX, AK, etc. Another thing is how many of these outfits have foreign call centers? Calls can be disconnected at the touch of a button and it’s easy to press the wrong key every now and then. After all, you think someone really listens and verifies all those “recorded calls”?
Just some additional food for thought.
Ok, there are posters Patrick and Modrat who are @ Pollster.com site indicating that they like posting junk here to get us boiled up.
McCain NEEDS the focus of the debate to be the economy, frankly. It is the issue that will decide the election, and he needs to show the American people that:
a) he “gets” it
b) Obama’s plans are dangerous, economically
c) Obama and his Democratic buddies (Frank, Dodd, Conrad, etc.) must shoulder much of the blame for the current crisis
McCain can’t win the election if the debate is mostly about Iraq, gay marriage, education, and the environment. He needs to rebuild his image around the economy, and show why an Obama-Pelosi-Reid triumvirate would be economically dangerous. He can’t duck it; he needs to attack the issue HEAD ON.
#281 – Ah, the maturity
#281 I am not suprised. Most of the posters at Pollster.com are liberal and most take the polls at face value without further analysis…and my comments here particularly (along with AIN) have to be infurating to them.
I am not suprised that this site has been subject to multiple freeping attacks. Dave W, as much as I hate to say it, I think IP bans may be in order.
Changing the topic, I just listened to both Zogby and Rasmussen on Hannity and while both were polite with each other, the knives were barely concealed. I think Zogby knows something (or thinks he does) and is saying repeatedly that the race isn’t over and that Obama hasn’t closed the deal….AND he expects the race to narrow or even flip. Scott feels the race is essentially over.
Hmmm…….interesting.
-Polaris
Yeah, but its just immature that Patrick would use several different handles – such as Sarah – and also impersonate.
I mean is he a he, she, or and it. Maybe, it is transgendered.
#284
Any idea on what Zogby needs to do to get attention from the media?
Unless there is some hope for McCain that is published, there will be some GOP who stay home.
I almost think McCain needs some topic on which he can submit a “daisy” ad. Something to scare republicans to a historic high in voting %.
#287 Yeah, a McCain win would just about do it. For that matter even a McCain loss (which I still don’t think will ultimately happen) that is razor thin would do a lot to restore Zogby’s street cred if the other polls remain as they are.
-Polaris
For the life of me I cant understand why McCain wont mention the Johnson/Raines connection to Obama and the vast amounts of money Obama got from Fannie Mae or the 2005 reform legislation he sponsored. McCain has got to flip the economy issue and shift the blame to Obama
#284, Polaris, I did not catch the show. Was Zogby using basically the same argument that you have been?
“I just listened to both Zogby and Rasmussen on Hannity and while both were polite with each other, the knives were barely concealed. I think Zogby knows something (or thinks he does) and is saying repeatedly that the race isn’t over and that Obama hasn’t closed the deal….AND he expects the race to narrow or even flip. Scott feels the race is essentially over.”
Darn it…I turned Hannity off for a phone call and forgot to turn him back on……did Zog say anything else?
Obama +2 in VA per RAS.
+6 in FL.
MAC +1 in OH
Here’s the thing: The MSM is hoping to have found a way to break the code. A way to ensure that they have a very strong say in who wins elections. Pressure pollsters to skew the internals so much that it would be near in possible for the outcome to be anything other than want the MSM wants. The report, report, report those polls.
Drive down the support of the opposition. This all just seems to organized and too one-sided. Not even one rogue pollster out there except for Zogby?
+7 in FL
+3 in MO
+6 in CO
Ugh. Well, at least we’re still up 1 in Ohio.
Now, Mac is +1 in OH and only down 2 in VA.
Good news.
+7 in FL is a joke.
+6 in CO is a joke, MD has it tied.
+3 in MO not believable.
These #’s are either not bad or not believable.
Per Jay Cost….Wright/Ayers=GOLD!
These numbers WILL change, folks!
Damn…who is Ras polling in Fl., CO, MO…LV’s or RV’s…..
Zogby did not use the same argument that I have probably because he was with Scott (Rasmussen) and didn’t want to squabble on the show. Zogby went out of his way to distance himself from Scott and from other pollsters, however, even to the extent of saying that 48% is a world of difference from 52% and thus had very different ideas about the last month of the campaign.
I am sure that transcripts are available.
#292
I would like to see some internals on those HD (and no I’m not about to pay for them) because those results are completely squirrelly. If Mac is up one in OH, then there is NO WAY he is down in both VA and Fla….and certainly no way that he is down 6 in Fla while up 1 in Fla.
-Polaris
Flip Ohio, please.
A little nice news would be nice.
#294 Has Scott (Ras) gone completely off the deep end? Down 6 in Co but only down 3 in Mo?
What is he smoking? Can anyone get at least the partisan distribution on these polls (you can get them by posting the Dem/GOP/Indy lines for each)?
-Polaris
Polaris…the internals say that Obama is beating McCain 54% to 42% among men but only 50% to 48% among women. YEAH RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
in FL
#298 AFAIK Ras is still using RVs.
-Polaris
McCain is winning men 48/47 but losing women 52/46 in MO…mccain gets 93% r’s obama gets 88% d’s…
#302,303:
Agreed. I might believe it if those were reversed but I smell a bad sample.
-Polaris
in VA: McCain and Obama both win 95% of their party’s vote…men for mccain 54/44, women for obama 54/43
#305 Those sound almost reasonable.
-Polaris
OK, it’s clear just from the VA number that Ras is badly overweighting Dems. If it’s 95% to the party nominee and Obama has a 2 point lead in Va, then he’s almost certainly oversampling Democrates given that historic turnout models indicate a 3% GOP lead. Does anyone have the Indy numbers?
-Polaris
Polaris,
Do these latest indicate a trend of any type, considering the internals used?
kb,
If the Rays don’t close the deal, I’ll be blaming you for non support.
#$#%^%$# Hawk Harrelson
Also, the VA is almost certainly a bad sample. Obama is NOT getting 95% of the Dem vote in VA. It will be higher than the Ohio Valley or Midwest because of the AA influence, but 95% is laughable.
-Polaris
#310
Yes. They indicate that Ras doesn’t know what the heck he is doing this year. Really, the internals seem fouled up six ways from sunday….so badly that I don’t think a trend can be discerned.
As a WAG based on these internals, this looks to be a turnout race similiar to 2000 and 2004. That’s just my take.
-Polaris
“These #’s are either not bad or not believable.”
LOL – I think that pretty much sums up the general reaction to all polling, around here.
🙂
CO:
Dem:92/7
Rep:12/87
Ind:53/39
FL:
Dem:87/12
Rep:17/87 (???)
Ind:59/32
MO:
Dem:88/11
Rep:6/93
Ind:51/40
OH:
Dem:85/12
Rep:10/90
Ind:42/44
VA:
Dem:95/5
Rep:5/95
Ind:48/45
#313 Well yes, Cory because here unlike places like Pollster.com, we actually bother to analyze all polls critically.
These polls aren’t consistant with each other and the internals are wretched. I don’t just mean because of the top-line number either.
-Polaris
#314 Thanks Cory. It’s what I thought. Clear Dem oversample almost across the board. I haven’t pulled out the calculator just yet to get a precise number, but I can ‘eyeball’ the spread enough to tell you that. Also the Indy number in Co is ridiculous. Kerry only took Co Indies by 1. Another bad Co poll. Why am I not suprised.
-Polaris
Brutus
I’m watching, I’m watching. They will do it for sure.
GO RAYS!
gotta go
kb
If Obama is really up only 3 among Indys in VA, he loses. He needs at least double that support, if not double digits among Indys.
See, Webb, James, 2006.
NB: 3 commas in only 4 words! I broke my record!
Let’s not forget that James’s Carville own poll only has Obama up 3? Why because Greenberg and Carville are using reasonable id samples. Folks if a state poll has + 9 or 10 or 15 dems. IT SHOULD BE IGNORED.
#284-
Upon hearing that same interview, I sent a comment to Hannity’s show (not sure if it emails him directly) asking him to please look deeper into all these polls. His voice is heard by many MANY conservatives who are greatly disheartened, and he needs to show them this isn’t over. The fact is, Republicans have reason to be outraged, but not depressed.
I mentioned Drummond and you as having good analysis worth looking into. We’ll see if he does anything about it.
Fellow posters, who would have thought it, but Scot Rasmussen is the John Zogby of 2008 and John Zogby is the Scot Rasmussen. It is some kind of sick magic. Rasmussen sounds just like Zogby did four years ago. We are living in Bizzaro land.
trash polls
one moment then I will have the right numbers for the ras polls
If ou take the right Party ID
then you get these results for the susa polls:
for NH:
BHO:47.2% JSMC:46.0% a dead heat
for VA:
BHO:45.3% JSMC:51.2%
————————
trash polls
one moment then I will have the right numbers for the ras polls
270- great stuff. tomorrows debate will be fireworks. I can see McCain laying out the truth and Obama then lies and says ” oh no,no, no. “
The right numbers for the VA poll of Rass are:
BHO:47.7% JSMC:50.5%
I have begun to sense that the tide is turning.
McCain-Palin is coming back strong.
so here are all results of the rasmussen polls of today for FL VA CO MO and OH!!!
OH:BHO:45.0% JSMC:50.5%
MO:BHO:49.5% JSMC:47.2%
FL:BHO:50.7% JSMC:49.3%
CO:BHO:46.8% JSMC:49.4%
VA:BHO:47.7% JSMC:50.5%
And how do you come up with these numbers?
Without weighting?
You guys had no problem with the weighting as long as the polls were in McCain’s favor.
hmmm….