PA: Primary Day

    I don’t know how many polls we will get today from Pennsylvania after the glut of polls yesterday, but Democrat John Zogby is out with his final tracking poll and it shows Hillary moving to a double digit lead.

    Hillary 51%
    Barack Obama 41%

    Do you realize in the past two weeks, THIRTEEN different polling organizations have released a poll for the Pennsylvania primary. 13!

    More importantly: Tonight – Pennsylvania Primary or Game 7 of Caps/Flyers….

    Posted by Dave at 7:24 am
    Filed under: 2008 President | Comments (60)

    60 Responses to “PA: Primary Day”

    1. Tina says:

      Operation Chaos continues. The results tonite will not likely be good bor Benito Obama.

      The race continues in May…

    2. Bryan says:

      PA Dems continue the Dem slide into a McCain Presidency that will begin Jan 20, 2009. Tonight’s results will be

      Hillary 53%
      Obama 46%
      Other 1%

    3. Tina says:

      If its less than 10%, i think Obama will be the “winner”. I mean he’s headed for large double digit wins in Oregon and NC. The Oregon result could be Obama +15%, and the NC result could be Obama +20%.

    4. Howard Dean says:

      IA poll

      Clinton +7

      Does anyone know if Obama will be in PA tonight?

    5. Howard Dean says:

      Zogby went from +3 to +6 to +10 in 3 days.


    6. Howard Dean says:


      Hillary 52%

      Obama 40%

    7. GPO says:

      Hill 55
      Obama 44
      Other 1

    8. Howard Dean says:

      #7 Was not statewide, it was for:

      “Mr. Paleologos said the poll he conducted for Suffolk University interviewed 402 likely Democratic voters from a randomly selected list of 5,000 Allegheny County, Pa. residents. The interviews were done by phone Sunday and yesterday.”


      The Pitt and surrounding areas.

      Still, a very important area for her to win.

    9. Howard Dean says:

      Last night, Dick Morris admitted Obama would be WEAKER than Hillary in the GE.

    10. Howard Dean says:

      Where is everyone??

      Tuesday, April 22, 2008
      FOX NEWS: Early turnout in PA – low…
      Posted by: Kevin McCullough at 8:35 AM

    11. theprez98 says:


      I just recently moved to Maryland from Pennsylvania…but I’m still a Flyers fan. 😉

    12. Howard Dean says:

      Dave, All those video links are slowing down the page load.

    13. Phil says:

      Haha. Morris hates Hillary as much or more than anyone on the air. He’s ranted against her in endless commentaries and columns for months now.

      Yet, in spite of that, even he can’t deny the coming Obama electoral disaster…

    14. rdelbov says:

      I personally sense 13 points today. Not that I believe in Luck.

      56-43-1 for Hillary

      I might that Memphis came within one lottery ball from getting LeBron James.

      ouch. Maybe Hillary gets the lottery pick win tonight

    15. Gary Maxwell says:

      Zogby clearly mindfull that his reputation preceeds him acts to make sure his final poll comports with reality. I think the guy tries to manipulate the results with his early on polls. Its amazing how much “movement” he detects right before a race that others never seem to find. Anyway rely on Zogby if you wish, but his results seem suspect to me.

    16. Howard Dean says:

      Well said Gary.

    17. Gary Maxwell says:

      BrendanLoy has some cautionary advice for any so called exit poll results you start hearing:

      bottom line, when you look at New Hampshire, Super Tuesday and March 4, Obama does, on average, roughly 7 to 8 points worse in the actual, final results than in the leaked, unweighted exit polls. (And sometimes the discrepancy is 15 points or more!) So when Drudge announces the inevitable “SHOCK EXIT POLL” numbers late tomorrow afternoon that show a “DEAD HEAT” in Pennsylvania, you shouldn’t get all excited — and neither should the media. When Hillary ultimately trudges to an 8-point win, nobody should be surprised, nor should it be considered some sort of Clinton “comeback,” for heaven’s sake. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 21 times, shame on me.

    18. Ryan says:

      WOW!!!!! GOP Pesimist and Dark Lord , Robert Novak, predicts that John McCain will beat Obama and win the Presidency.

      I despise Novak, but he is considered a great political predictor and considering he has been glooming the GOP prospects for 3 years, this is major.

      For more go the Corner today at National Review.

    19. Asa says:

      Has anyone seen WES???

      WES are you hiding?

      Your mentor Robert Novak has officially said he believes McCain will win.

      WES you have always quoted Novak as being brilliant and never Wrong.

      WES, Oh WES, where are thou???

    20. Asa says:

      Democrats loved it when Novak was the first to predict in 2006 that the GOP would the House and Senate.

      Now Novak predicts McCain will win rather easily against fatally damaged Obama.

    21. Howard Dean says:

      The coming storm is so obvious, even Morris and Novak can’t spin it.

    22. Gary Maxwell says:

      I am of two minds about Morris. The guy is a toad and is almost always wrong, you can make a lot of money just but putting your money on the dont pass line with Morris. But he also hates Hillary so thoroughly and completely, that if he saw any glimmer there for an opponent he would hawk it. That he does not see any, probably rules the day here.

    23. Phil says:

      Gary, that is my thinking as well.

    24. Howard Dean says:


      Good news:

      Al-Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zawahiri criticised Muslims for failing to support Islamist insurgencies in Iraq and elsewhere in a new audiotape posted Tuesday on the Internet.


    25. Gary Maxwell says:

      Did he mention his support for Obama in the tape? Just so when can authenticate it for timeliness, of course.

    26. Eph Rove says:

      Hillary 52%
      Obama 46%

      It ends (though she still wont realize it) tonight for Billary!

    27. Howard Dean says:

      Obama has left PA and is in Indiana.

      This tells me his internal polling is NOT good.

    28. Howard Dean says:

      Voting records seem sure to fall today in the critical Philadelphia suburbs. Already, 136 voters have cast their ballots at the Ardmore United Methodist Church. Judge of elections Kristina Shore said the typical primary draws less than 200 voters in a FULL DAY.
      She called the turnout “astronomical.”

      Voters appeared to be splitting their support evenly between Sens. Clinton and Obama. That makes sense. Ardmore is a mix of working class voters who tend to vote Clinton and the higher-income types who generally lean Obama. The town also has one of the larger African American populations on the Main Line.

    29. John says:

      Clinton will win by 14 to 16 points! McCain will win PA in November by 7 points!

    30. GPO says:

      McCain loses Penn by 8 to Hillary, and loses by one to Obama. Hillary beats McCain in Ohio but Obama loses Ohio to McCain.

    31. Eph Rove says:

      Billary win tonight by 6, she drops put of the race in 2 weeks. McCain beats Osama Obama in 49.5 states.

      let the dumbness begin!!

    32. Howard Dean says:

      New ARG POLL for PA:

      Hillary 56%

      Obama 40%

    33. Bitterlaw says:

      Ardome is 2 towns over from me. It is a pretty interesting mix of people.

      I don’t know if turnout is going to have an impact this primary. Let’s say 200 people usually vote in a primary and, this year, 500 people vote. If they vote in the same percentages, turnout didn’t matter. The only qualification is if some areas of the state have a greater increase in voting than others.

    34. Tim says:

      Obama has left the state? Then, I have to think that Senator Clinton wins by 7-10 points.

    35. Cory says:

      I’m sticking with my prediction of 9 points… but I’m slightly more afraid of a big Clinton win than I was yesterday.

    36. Tim says:

      Well Cory, she has to really win in a blowout, or it’s not gonna change much. With these selection rules, she’s not gonna pick up enough delegates to matter.

    37. rdelbov says:

      What a wimp Obama is for bailing on the thousands of paid and unpaid volunteers in PA.

      1st it looks like he is bailing on their election day efforts.

      2nd at least he could stick around and say thanks. Seal off the press tonight and shake some hands BO. I guess old fashion thank yous in person are a thing of a different area.

      Of course I can remember hand written thank you notes and politicos remembering your name and face.

    38. Howard Dean says:

      It’s not about the delegates, right now.

      It’s the POP vote and showing the Supers she can win the big states.

      And that someone else can’t…

    39. Zipota says:

      I hope Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) would score a big enough win in Pennsylvania tonight to prolong the fight for the Democratic presidential nod with Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) all the way through the Democratic National Convention come this August, albeit not a guarantee. Even if such scenario were to occur, it still may not give Senator John McCain (R-AZ) a leg up for the general election, considering that he raised far less money in his war chest compared to his Democratic counterparts while voters’ great discontent with the Bush administration over certain major issues would continue throughout the campaign. And may I add, the number of people who participated in the Democratic primaries/caucuses is far greater than that of those who participated in the GOP ones. I just don’t want Senator McCain to take anything for granted based on the reasons that I mentioned, for he is still in a weaker position than the Democrats are despite being pollingly competitive for the general election.

    40. Phil says:

      Popular vote is what she needs to overtake Obama on. She won’t do it on delegates. That is a given.

      Swamp him in Pennsylvania by 250000 votes. Keep it to 12 or 13% in NC and single digits in Oregon, win Indiana by 8 or 10, slaughter him in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico and hope that coupled with Florida’s totals give her the PV lead. Then go to the super delegates and convince them to go with her.

      My dream scenario is that all those things happen and then the Dems nominate the messiah anyway.

    41. Brandon says:

      The RNC has way more money on hand then the DNC. The RNC will be funding the McCain campaign now because of McCain’s pledge to take public financing.

    42. Cory says:

      If you include Florida in the popular vote, and include Michigan as well(giving undeclared votes to Obama), and then also include RCP’s estimates for those states that didn’t release raw vote totals (IA, NV, ME, WA) you get the most accurate count of all the votes cast so far.

      I don’t believe you can even consider including MI and FL in delegate totals, because the delegate contest has clear rules and it is unfair to change them.
      But the popular vote ‘contest’ is an abstract idea anyway, so Clinton has more of a case for including those states.

      Under that counting formula, Obama is currently ahead by about 435,000 votes.
      A big Clinton victory today (15%+) could give her 300,000+ votes.

      That’s my fear. She still has a sliver of a hope to win the popular vote, and that’s the only thing that could keep her campaign alive until the convention.

      Otherwise, this is over by June 5th and Obama can make the necessary pivot to McCain.

    43. rdelbov says:

      Cory I must admit to being a little lazy and hazy on this popular vote concept.

      1st do they include caucus states in that calculation?

      2nd of course I think the whole popular vote concept is a little twisted as states like MD and Ill had regular primaries at the same time as Presidential primaries. That naturally increased the total votes in those states.

      That being said I will come up with some great points tommorrow as to why Hillary needs to stay in the race and can win too.

    44. Cory says:

      1st Yes, but some caucus states don’t release vote totals so that’s why RCP has estimated them.

      2nd I’m not sure what you mean by regular primaries. Do you mean for offices other than President? If so, I don’t see any relevance. The PV total is simply the number of people who made a Presidential choice. Whether they were motivated to be at the polls because of another race is immaterial.

      There is of course the other issue of states that held both primary and caucus. I’m not actually sure if, for instance, Texas’s totals include both the primary and the caucus.

    45. rdelbov says:


      there are factors that increase turnout in Presidential primaries and here are some.

      1. Have a prominent place like NH

      2. Be Competitive

      3. Also include guberternial, senate, state legislative primaries on the same date. Local races always gin turnout. Look the congressional primary in MD this year. yes it turned out folks. To me that diminishes those states. Of course that just me

    46. Bitterlaw says:

      Why is it that Democrats can take something simple like “popular vote total” and turn it into a complex mystery? Don’t they write anything down in that Party? I mean, 110% of teachers (or at least their unions) are Democrats. Don’t any of them have a calculator that they could lend to the DNC?

    47. Cory says:

      Yes, that is definitely just you.

    48. Brandon says:

      2.3 Million Votes expected.

    49. Howard Dean says:

      Not bad.

      I was thinking 2.5 mill

    50. Brandon says:

      Where the heck are all of the exit polls?

    51. Gary Maxwell says:

      I seriously doubt if the Democrats get more than about 50% of registered Democrats to the polls today. Its a primary not a general election. That means about 2.1 -2.2 million Democrat voters. Approximately 4% of those will be newly registered voters. Not the huge wave impression you might get if you just read newspaper or listened to pundits.

    52. Tina says:

      I think there are about 10 remaining contests, including PA. I think they will each win 5 contests – but Obama will still have the total delegate lead. Also, keep an eye out for the super delegates. Hillary’s lead is down to less than 25.

    53. Gary Maxwell says:

      BTW the total votes cast in the primary in 2000 was about 700,000. I am still looking for the totals for 2004 but I doubt the voter rolls have grown that much in Pa in 8 years so even 2 million may be way off. If its more like 30% that 1.4 million total votes this time around which is still a big increase in totals over 2000 but makes it more difficult for Hill to make up the “popular vote” deficit.

      BTW I think calling the vote totals in caucuses where there is no record of who actually attended, to be ridiculous and anyone pushing this as a decider just wants their candidate to win, not to have a rational and fair process.

    54. rdelbov says:

      The last big democratic primary was in 2002’s gov race and that was 1.3 or so million. So 2.2 would be pretty big.

    55. Brandon says:

      FOX News about to release their Exit Poll Data.

    56. Tim says:

      Here’s an idea for Hillary Clinton. She could stay in the thing until the Primaries/Caucuses are done. Then, before the Convnetion, she could announce her pick for V.P. should she get the nomination. It should be the highest-stature Party person she could talk into it.
      Remember who else did that, in 1976? Ronald Reagan. Almost worked, too.
      I read about this today, and I then remembered Richard Schweiker.
      Maybe she should steal this page from the Reagan playbook.

    57. Tim says:

      By the way, the exit polling looks good for Clinton.

    58. rdelbov says:

      I guess we can rule Richardson out as Hillary’s VP choice?

      Reagan in 1976 got gamed by the rules. Strangely it was Indiana that did him in. Reagan won the state and had nearly all the delegates pledged to him by law for three ballots. Yet the state Central committee choice the delegates and they were almost all Ford delegates. So on several key prodecural votes Reagan lost or was sure to lose. Without shaking loose the NY or PA delegations that could hardly be called elected delegations Reagan was doomed in 1976.

      Yes Hillary is going now and will probably show up for debates next week.

    59. lisab says:

      “I mean, 110% of teachers (or at least their unions) are Democrats. Don’t any of them have a calculator that they could lend to the DNC?”

      not since “new math”

      plus is it really fair to call a number odd?

      and really shouldn’t everyone be equal anyway?

      (seriously if you are looking for teachers to count votes obama will win in a landslide in illinois, and hillary will win in a landslide everywhere else)