NY: Mccain Would Beat Obama, Barely Lose To Hillary

    New numbers from Marist College in New York shows John McCain could beat Barack Obama in the state of New York while he would barely lose to Hillary in her own home state.


    John McCain (R) 48%
    Barack Obama (D) 46%
    Hillary (D) 48%
    John McCain (R) 46%

    The poll also puts together some “dream tickets” to see how they would fair against each other, matching up John McCain with Condoleeza Rice and Joe Lieberman against combinations of Obama and Hillary.


    McCain/Rice (R) 49%
    Obama/Hillary (D) 44%

    McCain/Rice (R) 49%
    Hillary/Obama (D) 46%

    Obama/Hillary (D) 49%
    McCain/Lieberman (R) 45%

    Hillary/Obama (D) 53%
    McCain/Lieberman (R) 40%

    I don’t see McCain picking either candidate and I really don’t ever envision an Obama ticket with Hillary on the bottom. So these are sort of pointless, albeit interesting.

    Finally, this poll has some potential gubernatorial match ups for the 2010 election in New York, which almost seems ridiculous – even more so since these classify Michael Bloomberg as a Republican – which would mean Blommberg would go from a Democrat to Republican to Independent back to Republican in the span of nine years.

    GOVERNOR – NEW YORK – 2010

    Michael Bloomberg (R) 43%
    David Paterson (D) 42%

    David Paterson (D) 48%
    Rudy Giuliani (R) 44%

    David Paterson (D) 59%
    Peter King (R) 23%

    Michael Bloomberg (R) 54%
    Andrew Cuomo (D) 38%

    Rudy Giuliani (R) 53%
    Andrew Cuomo (D) 41%

    Andrew Cuomo (D) 59%
    Peter King (R) 31%

    We are a long way from this election. This entire poll was done April 3-4 among 576 registered voters.

    Posted by Dave at 6:24 pm
    Filed under: 2008 President | Comments (45)

    45 Responses to “NY: Mccain Would Beat Obama, Barely Lose To Hillary”

    1. Bitterlaw says:

      First. Shhhhhhh. We want Obama.

    2. Eph Rove says:

      Amazing how bad Peter King does. It just shows how anti-life NY has become over the years. kKng is the only reliable pro-life voice left in the entire state.

      So glad I left years ago. Ny is a complete joke!

    3. CambridgeRep says:

      I just don’t think many New Yorkers outside of Long Island know who the heck Peter King is.

      And these numbers CAN’T be right. They must’ve asked, “If Barack Obama (or Hillary Clinton) were caught in a sex tape with Ann Coulter, which of these candidates would you vote for…”

      No way McCain is within, or would be, within striking distance of the Dems in NY.

    4. Tina says:

      NY is now a red state? I want Obama to win the nomination.

    5. rdelbov says:

      1st its surprising that Patterson holds up. I guess Cuomo must have to leap over Patterson to get and that makes Andrew unpopular.

      Not sure what to make of the McCain surge in NY other then Hillary’s voters reject McCain (upstate voteres & inner city jews?) plus maybe Obama voters will hang with Hill in NY.

      I guess Hillary will send this poll to all the supers.

    6. Sam says:

      I seem to recall Marist’s track record with polling is… spotty at best. And it’s hard to give much credence to any polling company that polls a McCain/Lieberman ticket (R’s will realize eventually that Lieberman’s with them on foreign policy/national security…. and nothing else), or a polling company trying to poll such random candidates for the 2010 Gov. election….

    7. Adam says:

      Bloomburg is (I). He went repuglican to compete for mayor.

    8. Howard Dean says:

      I’m speechless.

      No wait, a thought is coming to mind.


    9. Howard Dean says:

      Folks there is a tentative deadline to join the 39% club.

      Aug 1.

      How much more evidence does one need?

      Under 50% in NY.


    10. lisab says:

      “while he would barely lose to Hillary in her own home state.”

      in her home state? the woman is from illinois.

    11. Howard Dean says:

      I thought she was from Arkansas! 🙂

    12. DLCLI says:

      “I just don’t think many New Yorkers outside of Long Island know who the heck Peter King is.”

      Yeah, they didn’t know who Rick Lazio was and look where we (the state and the nation) are today.

    13. clark gable says:

      Howard before you get too excited, Obama is up in Ras tracking poll nationally again. If he is up nationally there is no way he will lose NY. This poll is terrible. He does have problems in OH and PA, but he will get over 55% in NY

    14. Howard Dean says:

      Clark, In all likelihood, Obama wins NY.


      I’m looking at yet ANOTHER poll in a DEEP BLUE state where he is under 50%.

    15. sam says:

      Obama will only win DC, MD and IL.

    16. sam says:

      And, maybe VT. That’s it.

    17. Zipota says:

      New York State is a fool’s gold for any Republican presidential nominee, John McCain (R-AZ) won’t carry the state, with his vice-presidential running mate notwithstanding. As for the New York Gubernatorial Race in 2010, if Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I-NYC, NY) decides to run, the only way that he will win is if he were to run as a Democrat, which he still truly is despite having switched parties a few times since 2001, rather than as a Republican or an Independent, in which he has never been either one of them. Otherwise, he shouldn’t bother to run (I doubt that he would).

    18. Howard Dean says:

      But McCain advisers told FOX News Tuesday that they see a trend in Obama not personally addressing these comments, and that it conflicts with his message of bringing a new kind of politics to Washington.

      “Why does Sen. Obama refuse to personally condemn this type of despicable attack? Sen. Obama has run for president on the basis that he represents a new kind of politics, yet every day there is another smear that Obama refuses to repudiate,” McCain spokesman Tucker Bonds said in a written statement.


      This guy is getting hammered from 20 different directions.

      Politics as usual, no “change”
      Far left policies
      Hillary is hammering
      Endorsed by kooks
      Fired an adviser
      Delegate controversy in IL
      NAFTA gaff
      Can’t close the deal
      Flip flops on guns/Iraq
      Public campaign financing

      And he’s still in the PRIMARY! 🙂

    19. clark gable says:

      One month ago Obama led McCain 46% to 45% in the ras tracking pool.

      As Howard just said, he is “getting hammered from 20 different directions”

      And after all that, today Obama leads McCain in the ras tracking poll 46% to 45%.

    20. Howard Dean says:

      Clark, Focus on state polls.

      That’s where the electoral votes come from.

      Obama can’t win OH or PA.

      He’s getting CRUSHED in FL and MO.

      Under 50% in DEEP BLUE states.

      In the 30’s in red states.


    21. Howard Dean says:

      Hillary: “we’re going all the way to Denver!”

      Guess who will be there too?

      Throw a few bucks at these guys. Let’s be sure they have air-fare to get there!

      Buy popcorn and fire-extinguishers.

    22. clark gable says:

      Howard I agree that he has issues in OH and PA, and is in trouble in MO and FL. Once he is the nominee though the polls will tighten. I am not predicting the outcome like you have been, I just don’t see how you can write him off because he is down a few points in April.

    23. Tina says:

      A highly charged – flammable convention would be nice. Burn it down!!!

    24. House Sparrow says:

      Howard makes a good point. Just think if McCain was being held under 50 in places like Texas, Oklahoma and Georgia. That is the situation Obama is facing.

      While Obama will still almost certainly win NY, MA, and NJ, there is no way that McCain should be even remotely competitive with any ELECTABLE Democrat in any of those states in even one poll. If Mac can give Obama that much of a run for his money in strong, double-digit Kerry states, then PA, MI, WI, NH, etc. must be giving Barack nightmares.

    25. ryan says:

      Obama is in big trouble not because of Resko or his Muslim Name.

      He is mortally wounded by Jeremiah Wright and “The Bradley Effect”.

      Obama numbers are really 5% lower than the polls.

    26. Tim V- says:

      wow ! this is fantastic ! 39% here we come 🙂

    27. AZ Dem says:

      I told Phoenix Democrats months ago that Obama was a very weak GE candidate, and that Hillary would beat McCain.

      The Wright Scandal has destroyed him here in the WEST.

      Where is Mark Warner or Evan Bayh? They would be up 15% right now.

    28. Tim V- says:

      before we get too excited
      that’s 3 polls showing hill beats mccain yet mccain beats obama-ny,oh,pa.i sure hope the supuerdelegates don’t abandon obama.he won fair and square.

    29. Howard Dean says:

      People blindly say Obama is a strong candidate.

      They NEVER back it up.

      Again (this is tiring):

      UNDER 50% in *DEEP* blue states.

      Down 15% in a swing AND bellwether state MO.

      Losing in PA when he has been living there and spending MILLIONS there. McCain hasn’t even stepped a toe in PA.

      Losing in OH.

      Polling at 37% in FL!

      Polling in the 30’s in red states.

      And McCain hasn’t even started running ads on his non-mainstream views.

      Obama is moving right on gun issues, McCain is going to kill him on that.

      He’s anti-gun BIG TIME. PA has the HIGHEST per-capita NRA membership in the WHOLE country.

      He has no experience.

      He’s been endorsed by: Farrakhan, Jane Fonda, New Black Panthers and other far left people/groups.

      Associations with Ayers the terrorist and Rezko the crook.


      After the 527 ads in Sept/Oct of Farrakhanand & Obama at the Million Man March and more Wright ads…

      any recovery in the polls will be GONE.


      The Dems still have a chance with Hillary, that’s all.

    30. rdelbov says:

      Ryan thank you for the nod on what I call the Bradley-Obama effect.

      I too prefer the state polls.

      I might add that Gov dean is a little worried about Florida and Michigan. He is now convinced that sham delegations will be seated from these states at the convention. Of course the composition of these delegates will be set after the June votes and they will make no difference to who the nominee is. The folks in Michigan and Florida are not idiots. This trick will not work

    31. Howard Dean says:

      Hey guys, Seriously, donate $10 to recreate68.

      Fund the chaos!

      Guaranteed return!

    32. Tim V- says:

      the dems should annoint Obama before the PA primary reveals how unelectable he is.

    33. Tina says:

      I have said that Obama is the weaker GE candidate even before Operation Chaos was launched.

      Although I think Hillary wins PA, it would be nice if Benito Obama keeps it to a 5% loss. Then, he comes back with double digit wins in NC and Oregon…

    34. Tina says:

      Anyway, the Democrat Misadventure goes on until at least May, but more likely August.

      Sharpton, Adolf Wright, and Jesse should make plans to march and burn down Denver.

    35. Tina says:

      (the convention site – not the entire city.)

    36. Ray J Tuleya says:

      I have to continue to laugh. Even moronic Republicans keep insisting that this is a Democratic year. WHO are they trying to impress? Oh yeah, the liberal media.

      Instead this shows that this continues to be McCain’s election to lose. The Democrats laughingly want to fight to nominate the most liberal candidate. Hillary at 1st wanted to be logical and try to stay closer to the middle. But, now that this has already probably cost her the nomination, she tries to go more and more back to her liberal base.

      By the way, it’s nice Obama is raising a lot of money over the internet where there is no true paper trail. Can you say George Soros?

    37. michael corleone says:


      Republicans are the most inept political party since the Whigs. I agree, they keep saying it should be a Democrat year? Why? Because of circumstances — weakining economy and war in Iraq.

      It seems the Republicans have forgotten why we run campaigns — people get elected on ideas. The circumstances matter only in the sense that people want to hear the ideas of how you will address these problems. The circumstances alone don’t dictate the outcome of the election. The Democrat ideas are the same liberal socialist ideas that have failed every where they have been tried, with the economies of MI, OH, NJ and CA as the latest examples. This should be a Republican year because the Deomcrats have finally admitted to being socialists and socialism does not prevail in national elections.

      To Howard Dean,

      I’m not in the 39% club — but I am in the 44% club. I predict final tally is McCain 52.5%, Obama 44%, 3.5% for minor party candidates.

      Note — GWB received 51.5% last election. I think McCain will improve by 1 full point and this point will add 30-50 EVs in his column.

    38. Sam says:

      At this point in 2004, John Kerry was up big on George W. Bush, had sizeable leads in Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and Nevada, and was doing oddly well in red states like Georgia, Louisiana, and Nebraska. Where did he end up?

      I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, these polls are meaningless until Labor Day. If Obama’s numbers are still this bad on Labor Day, I’ll buy that he’s in a boatload of trouble. Until then, these polls are just ways for the polling companies to make more money.

    39. Aaron_in_TX says:

      Good points on #37 and 38. There’s no way Obama gets 39%. I could see him getting 44%, though, if he gets defined by Wright and the other scandals that were mentioned. I find it interesting that BOTH candidtates do so poorly vs. McCain. Hillary got re-elected to Senate with almost 2/3 of the vote. Surely she’d do better than 48%. This poll is ridiculous.

      A lot of you throw around the polling history regarding Kerry. Have you ever thought that McCain could turn out like Kerry and underperform his spring/summer polling?

      McCain has benefitted from mainly positive press coverage. Obama and Hillary have gotten mostly negative, and there’s a lot of emotion involved in the supporters of both.

    40. michael corleone says:


      Two reasons why McCain is not like Kerry,

      1. McCain is a real war hero.

      2. McCain is not a flaming liberal.

    41. Bonncaruso says:

      And McCain still can’t remember the difference between Shia and Sunni.

      And anyone who thinks NY is going republican in this year has been snorting something.

    42. rdelbov says:

      I too do not worry about polls on a day to day basis. Yet I always (at least once a week here) push out my five point post. I will restrain myself right now, but let me say that the historical trends favor the GOP right now.

      My point five for those who are new is that McCain starts with a near historical 240 electoral college votes. Obama is defined by Wright and McCain by Lieberman and that moves MO, VA and FL into his totals in April.

    43. Howard Dean says:

      At this point in 2004, John Kerry was up big on George W. Bush, had sizeable leads in Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and Nevada, and was doing oddly well in red states like Georgia, Louisiana, and Nebraska. Where did he end up?


      Apples meet oranges.

      The only things Obama has in common with Gore and Kerry are:

      1.They’re Dems

      That’s it!

      Obama has NO EXPERIENCE.

      FAR LEFT.

      And he’s already given us our October surprise.


      We have it!

      When the 527 ads ROAR in Sept/Oct, he’ll be whittled down to 39%!

      Please, tell me how he wins PA? OH?


    44. Dan says:

      I think that McCain has a better chance in New York than you all think. Yes, the polls are a bit low for Clinton, but she always starts out lower than she finishes in New York. As to Obama, from this Upstate Republican’s point of view, I can tell you that my parents, lifelong left-wing Democrats (both were proud to cast votes for Carter in 1980), will either vote for McCain or sit out the Presidential Race rather than vote for Obama. I think Obama is really damaged goods in New York.

    45. Interesting set of polls. New York was probably not the best state to poll a Condi Rice candidacy (for obvious reasons). Because of the MOE the McCain/Lieberman ticket is actually in a statistical tie with McCain/Rice. They should also have included McCain/Thompson and Obama/Sibelius as ‘generic’ tickets (or they should have shifted the polling to somewhere like PA or MO).