Double-Digit Leads For Hillary In PA, Obama In NC
That is what two new polls out today say. First, the new poll from Scott Rasmussen in Pennsylvania puts Hillary up by 10% over Barack Obama.
PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA – DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 49%
Barack Obama 39%
The previous Rasmussen poll had Hillary ahead by 13% just twelve days ago. This new poll was done March 24th among 690 likely voters. And in North Carolina, Public Policy Polling shows Barack Obama surging to a 21% lead.
PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY
Barack Obama 55%
Hillary 34%
Seven days ago, Obama only had a 1% lead. So in seven days, he managed to pick up 20% in the polls. This poll was done March 24th among 673 likely voters.
Thank goodness Dave stopped cherry picking polls>>>
Would it be obnoxious of me to point out that one possible turning point in the last 7 days was Obama giving the “greatest speech in the history of mankind”?
That North Carolina poll looks somewhat odd considering she was down by only 1% a week ago.
Obama’s speech was well received by the majority of the country. Spin can’t change that. Nothing has changed. Hillary is 10 up in PA. She was up 20 two months ago. And Obama will pound her in NC just like he did in VA. McCain numbers will change for the worse when the Dems get this over with. Anyone want to put a wager on it? I will be happy to take your money. I love Republican money!
And yet, the rasmussen Poll keeps showing Obama’s negatives creeping up. He was 46-52 the last two days. Hmm, negative 6 pts.
Yep, that was some speech alright.
PA will answer a lot of questions.
I wish it was sooner than 4/22.
Bradley effect folks. Watch Obama lose by 20 points in PA
Wow this batch of koolaide was a lot stronger than I thought! Please continue on believing whatever you have convinced yourself is the gospel truth. When you go from being the highest net positive remaining candidate to a net negative candidate and tied with Hill for the highest negatives, it can be blended through the fog of your brain to be a great thing and the best speech since Lincoln freed the slaves!
Since polls are samples that have to project, and use confidence levels less than 100% and margin of errors and have the limitations of people lying, or just goofing with the taker, hangups, inability to get to cell phone holders etc etc etc, go ahead and compare two different samples taken in different periods by different pollsters and with different sample design and detect a trend that tells you just what you want to hear.
Sheesh.
Harry,
Of course you do, because you Democrats are too lazy to work for your own:-)
I have interviewed the guy from PPP on my podcast. They are rather new at this game. I’m not saying they’re in error, but perhaps, their numbers are just a bit skewed. Just a thought…
rdelboy, I don’t know about 20%.
I think 15% is realistic.
If it comes to fruition, it will send shock-waves across the Supers.
Howard I defer to your judgement
My only thought is that at 49-39 the lower number represents what Obama gets and every one else votes Clinton except 2 percent vote for whoever else is still on the balance.
Several polls have shown Obama at 39% and that seems a good number to me, hey I see it at 15 too
Numbers, numbers, numbers
(cold, analytical, without emotion, cut and dried)
Pennsylvania polling trends, Rasmussen only (I am sticking with only one pollster in order to be consistent with the polling group size):
02/26 (After ST, Potomac Primaries and WI / HI)
Clinton 46%
Obama 42%
Undecided: 12%
Margin: Clinton +4%
03/05 (After TX, OH, RI, and VT)
Clinton: 52%
Obama: 37%
Undecided: 11%
Margin: Clinton +15
Margin change since 02/26: + 11
03/13 (Wright-Flap)
Clinton: 51%
Obama: 38%
Undecided: 11%
Margin: Clinton +13
Margin Change since 03/05: -2
03/25
Clinton: 49%
Obama: 39%
Undecided: 12%
Margin: Clinton +10%
Margin change since 03/13: -3
Margin change since 02/26: +6
Median change: -3 + 6 = 3% swing
Average undecideds: 11.5%
Assuming the snap-back principle, which has applied throughout the primary season, if Obama reduces this margin to 9% next week and 8% in the first April week and 7% in the second or third April week, then Clinton will win PA with a good 10%: 55%-45%. If Obama does not improve in his polling, then Clinton will win with 14%: 57%-43%, which is consistent with her landslide “ceiling” thus far in the race.
She will need a 65% in every single one of the last 10 contests in order to come out ahead in the PDs, exluding MI and FL, which have been disqualified since December 2007.
No.3 (Milner) – I have been told that the last NC poll was taken while colleges were on spring break. This last one was taken while they are back in session. Probably doesn’t make for 20 points, but I can imagine that those large universities are going to have a great many students who will vote for Obama.
But the pollster is also ppp – not the most reliable in the bunch, but not a bum, either.
rdelboy, IMO Obama gets roughly 39% in the GE.
No one has made the case of how he breaks the 40% barrier.
His supporters make general statements like “he’ll win” but the specifics are not discussed.
Catholics? No
Pro-life Dems? NO
Gun owners? Uh…no.
Hispanics? Maybe 50%.
White blue-collar union members….Nope
Jews: Well, let’s look at this influential Jewish Dem’s thoughts:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/obamas_unconvincing_speech.html
Howard, I’ll take just a litle stab at the 40% thing. As polarized as the Electorate is, I’m wondering how either candidate scores that low.
Today, I heard that Elections officials around that Nation are bracing for a turnout as high as perhaps 80%, this year. That’s a HUGE jump from the 61% turnout of 4 years ago.
Well, if this is true, what is driving it? And, just who are these new voters? And, in what states are the brunt of these voters appearing?
You see, I think we have a whole lot of questions to answer. I’ll be honest. I have never seen anything like this. And, as of now, I have no idea what may happen.
Please stop this man!!!!!
I cant hera longer this name
PPP is it seroius???
Dean, you call Ed Koch an “influential jewish DEM”? Tell me, are you smoking something.
I am a jew and a DEM and my vote is with Obama.
And he has the best chances to win in the fall.
It looks like Hillary Clinton is between a rock and a hard place!
LOL Made the case?
Howard, predicting that Obama will get 39% in the General Election is absolute lunacy. It makes you a laughingstock.
When the guy on my street corner tells me that armaggedon is around the corner, I don’t start “Making a case” against it. I chuckle, shake my head, and move along.
WALTER MONDALE hit 40% for crying out loud.
Bonn, Yes he is.
Your voting for Obama is anecdotal.
How does he win, specifically?
Breakdown the segments of voters he wins.
See #15
I agree with Tim – that’s the PPP poll is not known. The Ras. poll I think shows a narrowing of Her Thighness’s lead. Obama could wittle this away further but the Adolf Wright Scandal still goes strongly – but he has time to do it.
A big blowout by Thighness in PA – renders the NC poll result moot.
Obama has a glass jaw imo – even though the unmsm is trying to help him.
#20 I notice you didn’t suggest he’ll win or offer the case for him winning.
Did Dukakis have a Wright/Farrakhan problem?
No.
Apples meet oranges.
Why is Obama ONLY tied with Hillary in Nat polls?
He is OBAMAMANIA and the presumptive nominee. The race is “over” as almost all talking heads are saying, yet he can’t get a significant lead over her.
Why?
He has a HUGE problem, he’s a far-left fringe, divisive candidate.
Howard, predicting that Obama will get 39% in the General Election is absolute lunacy. It makes you a laughingstock.
Cory
RAS McCain 50%
Obama 41%
2% point difference from my 39% prediction.
2%!
Keep laughing…
I also commented on this 39% the other day. It may be 54-39 with 7 % to Nader and others.
We’re on Dukakis now?
Cause you know, he got 46%.
Howard, I have no idea who will win, but it’s obvious that both Obama and McCain will be strong candidates. I do prefer to have my discussions about who is likely to win with people who at least have some tethering to reality.
For people who predict 39%, I just point and laugh.
I agree that virtually any candidate absent a meltdown will do better in a two candidate race than 40%. I could posit situation where disgruntled supporters of the losing candidate either write their candidate or vote Green Party as a protestbut otherwise its just not possible to get much less than about 42 -43 %, again in a two man race.
The high water mark for Democrats btw is 50.1% for any post LBJ candidate. That happened just once and Jimmy Carter pulled it off.
Since the several blowouts and the relative success of Carter and Clinton as Southern and more moderate candidates, nobody has attempted to do what Obama will need to do.
The Electoral College is an uphill climb for a Democrat anyway. For a very liberal candidate, it has been accepted truth up until now at least, that it is just not possible.
Remember that a blowout of Reagan proportions, would be something like 56-43 with fringe candidates getting the rest. Its not likely we can see a drubbing much worse than that, and most modern elections are considerably closer.
The Duke did get 46%, but what moderate to conservative grayed hair senator can add 3% to the ticket in 2008?
Bentsen actually made a difference as a VP candidate in 1988.
For people who predict 39%, I just point and laugh.
Comment by Cory
Of course you do. I noticed you didn’t laugh at the RAS poll.
Laughing is easier than making a case for Obama to break 40%.
Which you still haven’t done.
He is losing traditionally Dem groups:
Jews
White union members
Hispanics
Make your case.
AGAIN:
Did Dukakis have a Wright/Farrakahn problem?
Did you know Obama’s church is sympathetic to Hamas?
Shall I get the link?
39%!
“Typical Black Man”
Know what’s funny though? We haven’t even STARTED to talk about his mainstream positions like PBA, D.L.’s for illegals…
or…
HAMAS! The general public doesn’t even know this stuff yet!
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/03/obamas-church-newsletter-published.html
I think you have hit on a very difficult issue for Obama. He has been very pro-palestinian in the past. Recently he has tried walk back that line and assure his support for Israel.
After blacks, the next most reliable voting block for Democrats is the Jewish vote. Since Jews are not spread evenly in the US their voting strength is concentrated in a few states.
This is one of the reasons why Fla is showing a large margin for McCain, Jews are not voting Democrat as reliably as in the past.
If Jews decide Obama is pro Palestinian and desert in large numbers, places that are thought of as reliably Democrat, ie Connecticut and New Jersey could conceivably flip.
Philly suburbs, NJ, NY and CT have significant Jewish blocs.
There is a large and uneasy Jewish community in Detroit suburbs plus East Cincy and East Cleveland suburbs
so does LA, but hey CA is out of reach right?
Look who is joined at the hip:
Obama/Farrakhan
McCain/Lieberman
Questions about the Jewish vote?
I cant remember but someone posited that the places where Obama has done well with white voters, tend to be either lily white states or states where most of the voters dont interact between the races. First example, Vermont. Second example Wisconsin, where blacks are almost all in the Milwaukee area and the rest of the state is pretty white with little contact with the inner city of Milwaukee.
If the interaction makes whites more hesitant to vote for Obama, what did Obama do for himself in that speech? And the typical white person follow up?
Now lets look at Detroit. Kwame Kilpatrick has been on a tear, blaming all his troubles of recent on the media and even telling suburbanites to “butt out.”
And the economy in Michigan sucks, the Democrat Governor gets some of the blame for not fixing that and then this whole thing.
If you layer in Bloomfield Hills Jewsih population, I think you may get Oakland and Macomb counties, the two big Detroit suburban counties to flip. This is what happened when Reagan carried Michigan. Detroit votes heavily D but that is cancelled out by heavy R voting on the westside and northside of the State. The swing counties decide who wins.
Should be very interesting now that Obama has made himself the Black progressive candidate.
The Dukakis thing is totally week. Bush senior was following a popular president who wasn’t stupid enough to get us in a century long war. Bush senior also had the advantage of being Vice President. McCain is not vice president, and Bush Jr. is much more like following Johnson/Nixon. No comparison.Cling to it if you must. McCain is one point up with no one attacking him or pointing out that he supports Bush’s disasterous policiesm which the majority hate. After November Republicans will be completely out of the government throwing peanuts from the gallery.
I’m with you Howard, I’ll just raise the 39% to maybe 45%. It will be a huge win for McCain. The problem is that Obama is such a smooth talker.He will MASK his real far left radical views and keep pushing his LIES of being a uniter and above the political fray and all his feel good hope bullshit.He will come across as being in the center.The more I research the man, the more scared I am of having him become our next president, yet when I hear him talk and see him, he is so smooth.The average Joe voter may not realise what a snake oil salesman he really is and how radical his views really are.They will see a polished new politician promising us a new this and a new that, offering us hope and change and compare him to an old man offering us just more years of Iraq and the same old politics of division.The economy sucks and most likely will not be much better come election time. Unless our 527’s can inform the public of Obama’s true radical marxist adgenda then I fear for our country.Obama is like satan,he is a great liar and masks himself as an angel of light and many, if not most people will be deceived.
Gary Maxwell thanks for your post. Some good thoughts.
very good points about the jewish vote.bon why aren’t you buying it ? excellent work on Hamas, Howard, I knew you could do better than your previous shots at Obama. I’ll second the nomination of a good post by g maxwell.
Interesting dilemna for the Dems. Obama could win the NC primary in a state where he will get blown out in November.
This is true in too many states, so we’ll see if the Dems really want to nominate someone who can’t win. Luckily, they are dilusional and assume they will win no matter what.
Well, I do think McCain would beat Hillary in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Ohio and Florida; but it would be nicer against Obama as they would be easier wins. Instead Dems are excited about being close with Obama in some smaller red states.
I live in PA and work right next to a steel mill, so nearly all of the Dems I know are blue-collar union guys. I have yet to speak to one, just ONE, who has had anything good to say about Obama. These are the same guys who rabidly supported Bill Clinton, John Kerry, Bob Casey and Ed Rendell. They like Hillary, despise Bush, and most aren’t big fans of McCain.
When I ask these guys about looking ahead to the General, if Obama is their nominee, about half say they won’t vote and the other half go with McCain. Usually, all it takes is a “D” after the name to get these guys’ votes, but Obama is not getting it done. So, I can attest to the fact that he has a major problem with at least one of his key voting blocs here.
#42 The current pres has a 32% approval rating and McCain will carry MN. who’s delusional? No Republican has carried PA since 1988 and they are going to do it this year, the worse political environment for Republicans since 1964.What are you smoking?
#39. People are not thinking about how liberal the Dems are. They are thinking about how incompetent and foolish Republican policies are. 06 was just a warning shot. Hasserts seat was a sign of what’s to come.
Just 51-48 in 2004 in PA 25% of Dems not voting for Obama. McCain doing well with Indies.
I suggest anyone thinking PA is an Obama lock has been spent too much time in the Rev. Wright’s church
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx
The Dukakis thing is totally week. Bush senior was following a popular president who wasn’t stupid enough to get us in a century long war.
harry
Why didn’t Gore win?
Now he might lose NJ.
Jews…check.
Italians…check.
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Obama_Pastor_Italians/2008/03/26/83119.html
Not only will this pass, it will hurt Obama. I DARE him to not hide his pro-affirmative action stance. In fact, he should be out advocating for it.
Bad news for him in CO:
http://michellemalkin.com/2008/03/25/right-in-08-colorado-civil-rights-initiative-qualifies-for-the-ballot/
This is the 21st century and talk like this is still going on. As a 1/2 Italian American this is just stunning.
At there was no Mafia or Mob references.
PA has one the top three highest % of Italian American’s of any state in the USA by the way. You think NJ and NY, but no PA-RI and yes OH has bunch of Italians.
New Missouri Poll just released by Rasmussen, which matches the recent SurveyUSA poll:
McCain 53
Obama 38
(McCain/Hillary=50/41)
— Rasmussen – 3/24/08 500LV
recent SurveyUSA poll:
McCain 53
Obama 39 – SurveyUSA – 3/16/08 536RV
Ouch. Not good news for Obama. No way to spin this one.
rdelboy, I’m half Italian too.
Did you catch the “garlic nose” reference?
Darrell, Looks like he’s recovering nicely in MO.
MO is a swing state and he’s getting CRUSHED there.
Not surprised though.
and the liberal stooges at electionprojection.com show Missouri in the DEM column:
http://electionprojection.com/elections2008.html
Harry:
I would be glad to have a discussion with you about the race but I wont do it if its going to be just another Ad hom flinging contest.
I admit Obama had a very good start to the campaign. He was drawing the far left and independents and certainly has shown a prowess for fundraising which is an advantage that most National Democrats have not seen.
His speech needs to be seen through the eyes of an apolitical independent white voter, or even the lunchpail union guys and usual solid Democrat voters mentioned above. To them, it was one more blame the white guy for everything and worse, he could not bring himself to repudiate an obvious racist with very anti American sentiments.
By doing so, he in fact may have saved his campaign but surely converted it. No more transcendence, no more above the fray and now the “Black” candidate. That has implications and so far I have not heard you admit even that.
Here is another fact to keep in mind. Not all Americans vote. Some are not eligible for various reasons, felons for example or not citizens or even too young. Others dont keep up their registration and many places it is an advance requirement. Some move and forget to change their registration etc.
Anyway of the roughly 300 million Americans, only about 60% of them register and only about 60% of those will actually vote. And in a primary it might be less than 1/2 of that.
So trying to extrapolate from what is happening in a primary to the general is not something most pollster do, because it would end up making them look silly.
We will have about 120 million American vote this Fall. Whoever gets 60 million + 1 wins. ( Not true of course since it is an Electoral College system which tilts towards Republicans ).
If you see national RV polls that say McCain is ahead, he is ahead more than that in a LV poll. And just know that it has been documented time and time again that polls generally understate the Republican support that will be recieved in an election by a something in the range of 1.5 to 2.5%. Part of this may be busy Republican who dont have time to talk to pollsters, or use caller ID to screen out calls. But it exists.
So with all that to consider, what of interest do you have for us or me?
Gary, You won’t get specifics from Obama people.
They can’t make a case for how he keeps the Dem voting blocks.
The case has been made here (by several people)of how he loses them.
He can’t keep the Dem base together, never mind the indies.
I see this election playing out more like 1960. I think it will be very close. It will be a choice between a “first” appealing to the next generation or an established “heir apparant” politician for the status quo. The election is following a two term Republican president and the economy is on the downside. Lots of similarities…
The new poll numbers from MO are great news. It continues to amaze me that people think the DEMs are heading for a white house take over. I just don’t see from where the 270 electoral votes are going to come.
Harry, Harry, Harry. Are you the type that thinks if someone doesn’t agree with you, they must be stupid?
Let’s talk approval ratings. Bush loses half just because every Democrat answers the poll negatively no matter what. The main reason it has gone down past that is Republican’s wanting to show their displeasure with 1) illegal immigration and 2) not standing up to the Democratic partisan hacks.
The Democratic congress’ approval rating is less than half of Bush 43. Their “sky is falling” attitude has landed us in a slow down of the economy and high gas prices.
Obama is trying to run McCain’s campaign as being someone to unite the country. ONLY problem is Obama is an inexperienced junior senator who has NEVER tried to unite with Republicans. His version of unity must have been the same as the 1932 German election, UNITE by agreeing with HIM.
McCain has credibility on working across the aisle. He can demonstrate that us conservatives have been upset with him for doing it too much. Rush Limbaugh’s hate for him is real.
Read #43. These are the types who won’t be fooled by the fluff. They will not let Philadelphia run their state forever.
Obama has achieved what Dick Morris and Rush warned us about last year, he has made Hillary look experienced and moderate. Obama is going to win the nomination by doing this to her, but there is NO WAY he will be able to claim those things for himself this Fall.
Congress’s attitude has caused the current Economic problems? Now, that’s a new one.
I remember Dems being sure they would win a presidential election due to an unpopular Republican president. It was 2004.
On the other hand, we were not in a Recession in 2004. And, the President’s approval rating was 19 points higher than it now is.
It depends on who you blame for the housing bubble bursting: 1) those who caused the bubble or 2) those who blew it.
I live in an area where all housing prices doubled in less than 3 years. That could not be sustained. The trouble is, it was not ready for a price correction. Stability 1st is a better idea.
However Democrats and their MSM accomplices were so vested in having the economy fall for political gains, they have created a self-fulfilling profacy.
The next bubble breaking will be the negative effects when the oil price speculation bursts. At first it will be seen as a great thing with gas prices going down, but there are always negatives to these cycles.
I find it hard to believe that any elected offical would be rooting for a recession, that is unless they want to lose their jobs come November.
One of the smartest pols in PA and DC Jack Murtha made his choice and its Hillary.
Why you might ask. Look at Cambria county which is his home county. 55,000 reg dems and 27,000 reg GOP. Solid Dem right well in 2004 it 33K Bush and 32K Kerry.
What do you think Murtha has learned in his many visits to Union halls, VFW clubs, Knights of Columbus meetings and gun shows in the district? These conservative leaning dems are going to run from Obama.
And, there I was thinking that many of the Economic policies of this Administration were to blame for this thing. Silly me.
This, I guarantee. If the Economy was headed in the other direction, I know that the Administration would be taking the credit.
CBS and a local Fox affiliate- which were essentially in the pocketbook of Clinton, Inc, just pointed out the lies of Her Thighness’s adventure into Bosnia.
Hillarygate is just emerging as the Adolf Wright Scandal may be ebbing a bit.
CBS also had the CNN reject lamenting that the Ds are blowing this race. Obama and Hillary are destroying each other.
The recent poll results showing McCain up in MO, MN, MI, PA, FL, and OH are devastating news for the Ds, who should be walking away with this contest.
They are only managing, however, to drive their unfavorable rates higher.
And Where is Benito Obama – on vacation while Rome is burning?
Remember what Hillary also lied about – elect the Drat Congress in 2006 and gas prices will go down.
This is the worst Congress on record and they have failed to address border security, earmarks, gas prices, and the culture of corruption.
Tina
I think the Virgin Islands have a lot delegates for the convention or Electoral votes for the General election. Surely, it wouldn’t be to get away from the press so they could not ask some more probing questions.
Yes we need some debates in PA and actually press conferences with Obama talking to the press.
Its been nearly two weeks without a talk to the press.
I think we’ll see the commodities bubble burst next.
Rachel,
It has happend oil is down by nearly $12 and gold has fallen a lot too.
Where’s Waldo Obama?
I guess I am behind the times now I tried to explain to someone about “where’s waldo”. What’s all the rage for young kids now are the “I spy” books.
I did notice that Obama has been spied on vacation, but no dancing in the sand yet with Michelle.
I found this big of comic relief in the Rasmussen poll today:
Six percent (6%) of Democrats would like both Clinton and Obama to drop out of the race.
Looks like Operation Chaos is invading the polling world. Maybe there can be some loyalty oaths for telling the pollster you are a Democrat? LOL
I fear that Obama is the victim of a “vast Wright wing conspiracy.”
I just thought that up. I lke it.
Tina, I think gold and oil both have a lot farther to fall. The rhetoric about investing in gold lately is reminding me a lot of what we heard about real estate before the burst.
I start getting worried whenever I hear that something “will never lose its value.” Good sign that there are clueless people investing in it.
BTW PPP has admitted to changing it sampling design between the their two polls so comparing the two for any trend is entirely bogus. It remains to be seen which design yields a closer result in NC, but so far PPP has not been one of the most accurate pollsters.
All I can if Obama wins by 2 % in NC and I cry “Bradley effect” maybe someone notice it too.
I have seen it affecting the exit polls in many states and quite a few of the regular polls
This is kind of funny…Rush has his “Operation Chaos” going, where he encourages GOP voters to cross over and prop up Hillary to keep the battle going so they keep attacking each other. Now he has a guy in Texas who voted this way in the primary, and then as an undercover Republican, went to the DEM caucus, and apparently was so persuasive in his faux support for Hillary that he was nominated to be a delegate and could go to the Denver DEM convention.
#83 LOL!