Could Ralph Nader Hand Election to McCain?

    Eight years ago, some people said Ralph Nader thankfully saved all of us from an Al Gore presidency. Now Democrat John Zogby has a new poll saying Ralph Nader could ruin the Democrats’ chances again. Here are the numbers from his latest poll including Ralph Nader in General Election match ups.


    McCain (R) 45%
    Hillary (D) 39%
    Nader (I) 6%
    McCain (R) 44%
    Obama (D) 39%
    Nader (I) 5%

    Now does anybody really believe Nader will come even close to getting 5%. Even in 2000 when he supposedly was a more legitimate third party candidate, Nader still only got 2.71%. My guess is much of Nader’s support are Democrats for Obama saying they will vote for Nader over Hillary and Democrats for Hillary saying they they would vote for Nader over Obama. This poll was done March 13-14 among 1001 likely voters.

    While I am at it, we have some new polls in a few states. Scott Rasmussen has a new poll from Connecticut showing the two Democrats ahead of McCain.


    Hillary (D) 47%
    McCain (R) 44%
    Obama (D) 50%
    McCain (R) 38%

    This poll was done March 11th among 500 likely voters. And a poll from a Republican firm, Ayers, McHenry and Associates, hired by Tennessee US Senator Lamar Alexander shows McCain ahead of both Democrats.


    McCain (R) 51%
    Hillary (D) 43%
    McCain (R) 53%
    Obama (D) 36%

    From the same poll, Alexander leads two Democrats I honestly have never heard of.


    Lamar Alexander (R-Inc) 59%
    Bob Tuke (D) 28%
    Lamar Alexander (R-Inc) 58%
    Mike Padgett (D) 31%

    I wonder why Harold Ford decided not to try again in what is supposed to be another down year for Republicans. This poll was done March 5-9 among 600 registered voters.

    Posted by Dave at 9:13 am
    Filed under: 2008 President,2008 US Senate | Comments (72)

    72 Responses to “Could Ralph Nader Hand Election to McCain?”

    1. DLCLI says:


    2. Tim says:

      He can’t beat Lamar Alexander. That’s why he didn’t try.

    3. Tim says:

      Also, if Ralph Nader could do any damage to the Dem nominee, it would not be done on a National scale. It would be done in individual swing states. New Hampshire might be a prime one to look at.

    4. Howard Dean says:

      I’ve said all along if Hill is the nominee Nader gets a MINIMUM of 5%.

      If ObamaDukakis is the nominee, it won’t matter.

      His #’s are collapsing as we speak.

      er,….type. These polls have not captured the full effect of the pastor/best friend fallout.

      Wait a couple more days. WOW, look, Obama @ 39%!

      39%! I *HOPE* he decides to *CHANGE* his church.

    5. Zipota says:

      Albeit that the left-winged candidacy of Ralph Nader (I-CT) could help John McCain (R-AZ) win the White House by siphoning votes from either of the Democrats, Hillary Clinton (D-NY) or Barack Obama (D-IL), Senator McCain still has to continue energizing the conservative base and attracting moderate and independent voters while making sure that there is no third-party candidacy from the right since it will blunt any new-found momentum that McCain is slowly building, which would thus hand the White House to the Democrats. Meanwhile, there are no surprises in the poll findings in Tennessee for the presidential and senate contests, but the presidential contest in Connecticut is somewhat surprising given the state’s strong pro-Democratic bent, especially when Clinton is matching up with McCain there, she only leads McCain by 3 percentage points while Obama leads him by 12. If Connecticut could be made a swing state regardless who the Democratic presidential nominee would be, then that could provide the opening the GOP desperately needs.

    6. L TePaske says:

      Dems have a problem; If Obama is the nominee the jewish vote shows up but splits the ticket, if Clinton is the nominee the black vote may stay home giving congress back to the good guys.

    7. Howard Dean says:

      #6 It’s wider and deeper than that for ObamaDukakis.

      He will lose the Catholic and Reagan Dem (blue-collar union) votes.

      He will get crushed in the GE.

      Plus, we haven’t seen the last of the pastor vids or heard the last from Rezzzzko.

    8. Harry says:

      #4 No they are not collapsing. And Obama picked up 14 more delegates. The media is already moving on.

    9. Howard Dean says:

      I wasn’t talking about delegates.

      They’re not collapsing? Really?

      So 39% is making progress? He was below 39% last week?

      The msm *thinks* it’s moving on.

      More to follow…

    10. Eric Dondero says:

      Notice how Zogby cleverly excludes the Libertarian Party and Wayne Root from the survey? Yet, he emphasizes fellow Lebanese-American Ralph Nader, and even had the audacity to claim that “some libertarians” will support Nader.

      He’s a scum pollster with an agenda. He uses libertarians for his own means.

      FACT! The Libertarian Party just won ballot access in extremely difficult North Carolina. This means that they will be the ONLY 3rd party on the ballot in 2008 with nearly 50 state ballot statuse, with an outside shot of all 50 (WV & OK the two tough ones).

      Nader will be lucky to be on 30 to 35 states. The Greens with Cynthia McKinney might get closer to 40.


      And Zogby COMPLETELY ignores this.

      Libertarian Presidential candidate Wayne Root is running the most professional campaign since Ed Clark of 1980. He’s been on Glenn Beck, ManCow and Fox News.

      Yet, leftists like Zogby completely ignore him.

      That’s okay. They’ll be shocked on election day, when the LP pulls 3 to 5 million votes, far more than “yesterday’s news” Nader.

    11. Eric Dondero says:

      Is Zogby a racist?

      He completely ignored former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney’s candidacy on the Green Party ticket, yet pumped up fringe 74-year old ambulance chasing lawyer Ralph Nader, also of Lebanese descent.

      McKinney is an African-American.

      She’s likely to be on the ballot in 35 to 40 some states. And Zogby completely left her out of the poll, in favor of fellow Arab-American Nader.

    12. anon says:

      Ok, I can’t take it anymore.

      #1 Ralph Nader took 35% of his voters from D and 24% from R in the Bush elections.
      #2 All other third party candidates had more votes in Florida, so Nader couldn’t have *alone* cost the D’s the election
      #3 Amulance chaser? Go away until you fix that brain cell problem
      #4 Eliot Spitzer’s problem is not the one described in our unbelievably juvenile press (they would have more credibility without the giggling), but the fact that he left himself open to corruption
      #5 Obama is race-centric, and will never represent what his cohorts term “White America”, a long time FACT. It’s absolutely accurate to judge a person by who they let into their life.
      #6 Daring to address #5 is not racist. It’s free speech. But what the Rev said was clearly racist – again, long KNOWN – LITTLE talked about.

      Man, get a grip.

    13. Michael says:

      Zipota – as usual you don’t get it. The Dems are imploding…it they who are desperate not the Republicans. Not who the Dems nominate…they lose.

    14. Michael says:

      Zipota – as usual you don’t get it. The Dems are imploding…it they who are desperate not the Republicans. No matter who the Dems nominate…they lose.

    15. MTR says:

      The media may “move on” but the internet, blog world and youtube will not. Obama’s mentor being a racist hate monger is big news.

    16. Eric Dondero says:

      Hary is 100% correct. The new media is far, far more important in 2008 than it was in 2000, and even 2004. The old media will move on. But YouTube and the Blogosphere will pound Obama on this all the way up to election day.

      And there’s much, much more to come.

      Pamela Geller at Atlas Shrugs is always the first on these stories. She was bringing up the Pastor Jeramiah stuff a year ago.

      She and I – at Libertarian Republican blog – have been emphasizing Obama’s ties to Radical Islamic murderous thug Raila Odinga in Kenya. Odinga is “allegedly” responsible for the muders of thousands in the recent violence there, including 100 who his thugs crammed into a church and set on fire, machine-gunning any that tried to flee.

      Well, Obama campaigned for this guy in 2006 in Kenya.

      There’s a photo of him standing behind thuggish looking Odinga at a campaign rally.

      Next shoe to drop. And it will eclipse the Jeramiah scandal.

    17. Michael says:

      Zipota – it is not happenstance that the Republicans have won seven out of the last ten elections. You really need to take off your Dem-colored glasses to see the reality that is coming this November.

    18. Tina says:

      Hill and Obama has had difficult polling these last couple of weeks. I mean they are losing the battleground state of PA, and now Tennessee.

    19. sam says:

      To Michael’s point in #18 above, even the three elections that the Dems won (Clinton twice and Carter) were moderate Southern governors, not flaming black nationalist racists and northeast liberals.

    20. Howard Dean says:

      TN was never in play.

      Clinton NEVER got a majority of votes either.

    21. lisab says:

      “It would be done in individual swing states. New Hampshire might be a prime one to look at.” tim

      more likely wisconsin and new mexico and possibly colorado if it is close there (though colorado probably won’t be close)

      any state where the margin is less than 5,000 votes will be affected

      and his vp is a GREEN

    22. Harry says:

      #16. The people who want a Republican will rant forever a the rest of the country will move on,as usual.All the ranting about Bill Clinton didn’t stop him from being re-elected. His poll number were 25 points higher then Bush’s current numbers the day they impeached him. The pope (On Drudge)said the war in Iraq is evil. Catholics will vote Dem. or risk going to hell. The photo of Bush and McCain molesting each other will be very damaging in the general election. Evangelicals hate Catholics.

    23. IP727 says:

      Catholics will vote Dem. or risk going to hell. Comment by Harry —

      That didn’t stop them from voting for the abortion party.

    24. Harry says:

      Ras poll. McCain 47-43 over Obama. Big improvement for Obama since Feb. Very poor numbers for McCain considering all that is going on. After Obama wins the nomination he will be ahead in FL. Very poor, because McCain is a household name and Bush won the state handily. He’s under 50% in a must win red state. If you aren’t for him now when would you be?

    25. Tim says:

      Let us also not confuse this Presidential contest with the difficulties that the GOP is having in the Congressional Elections. As it now stands, there is just no way that the GOP will gain seats in Congress, this year.

    26. rdelbov says:

      When Joe Lieberman does a TV ad and mentions McCain’s strong support of the Jewish state that will move numbers and voters.

    27. Michael says:

      Harry – you are a dreamer…McCain will win Florida by a landside and I live in Florida. Dems when they know they doomed are so silly.

    28. Gary Maxwell says:

      Those of you still smokin the white crumbly stuff, put down the pipe and back away slowly.

      Understand that Since 1964, one Democrat got as much as 50% of the electorate. Jiminy Carter got 50.1% and Ford had just pardoned Nixon, and thus alienated a fair amount of folks. That is a just fact. And the electoral college slates to the right. Without two democrats beating the living crap out of each other for six more months, its an uphill climb to begin with.

      Now this Wayne Root guy, who I honestly have never ever heard of is going to get 5 million votes? How many did they get last national election ( hint nowhere close ).

    29. Howard Dean says:


      As it now stands, there is just no way that the GOP will gain seats in Congress, this year.

      Comment by Tim — 3/16/2008 @ 2:00 pm

      Are you kidding?

      There is a chance for the House to turn. Hillary or Obama would hurt the down-ticket.

      Senate remains Dem.

    30. Harry says:

      Sean Parnell, Sara Palins Lt. Gov announced at the Rep. convention he is running against Don Young(16) in the primary for congress. Palin endorses Parnell and says we must end the culture of corruption in Alaska.Young was sitting right in the room. Half the attentee’s stood up and applauded. The rank and file+indy’s and dems Switching will kill YOung. Young is toast. But the seat has a better chance of staying Republican if Parnell succeeds,and he will.

    31. maelstrom says:


      IRT #23, 55% of Ohio Catholics went to Bush in 2004. They voted for him instead of “Catholic” John Kerry. They delivered OH and the electoral college.

      HRC is out-polling BHO among Catholics. Rural counties in OH gave her 70-80% of the vote. Those counties won’t go to Obama in the GE. McCain wins OH in 2008 if Obama is nominee.

      This Catholic has never voted for a Democrat and doesn’t plan on going to hell.

    32. maelstrom says:

      The Pope called for Peace in the Iraq and asked the Iraqi’s to stop killing each other and attacking Christians. He did not call for the US to pull-out.

      For Pete’s sake, the Pope and the Church are always against violence. However, St. Augustine developed the criteria for a just war and it is up to each individual to decide whether the criteria is met.

      Me. I’m good to go.

    33. Tim V says:

      Obama’s minister was NOT talked about much this am on the political talk shows. Maybe this will NOT be the death knoll for his campaign.

    34. Harry says:

      #33 You bite easy. That’s funny.

    35. maelstrom says:


      I had a lot a time to think about it and decide for myself when I was wearing the uniform of the US Navy. They were not hypothetical questions nor do I bite easy.
      It was not an exercise in mental masturbation.

    36. Harry says:

      I had three brothers in the navy. Mental masterbation goes on all the time.

    37. hugh says:


      Catholics will vote democrat or risk going to hell.

      I read the Catholic voting guide yesterday after mass and based on its guidance it is impossible for a practicing Catholic who follows the voting guidelines to vote for HRC or Obama over McCain. The guide does not say who to vote for but on the 5 key moral issues outlined in the guide McCain wins hands down.

      I think Florida easily goes for McCain over Obama. HRC would be a fight. Similarly, until I moved to FL a 18 months ago I resided in the Peoples Republic of Ohio and think McCain will win their over Obama, and would likely lose against HRC. Its shaping up very poorly for the dems for the White House. Unfortunately, congress will be a different story.

    38. Howard Dean says:


      No one expects the biased liberal msm to take Obama out.

      It will be done by the 527’s.

      It will be DEVASTATING.

    39. Tim says:

      Howard Dean:
      No, the math is not there, at this time. The GOP may try to spin Ill. 14, but that isn’t going to work. John McCain endorsed the GOP candidate, and the NRCC spent abobut 20% of their funds on-hand in this contest. Plus, it was Denny Hastert’s seat! Didn’t matter. And, I might add that an open Dem seat in Indiana the very next week was easily held, even though the GOP had expressed hope that this seat could be turned.
      The GOP is defending 29 open seats, and at least 9 other incumbent’s seats are in real danger of turning. The problbem with the open seats is compounded by the fact that the NRCC doesn’t have a lot of money to spread around, while their Democratic counterparts are suddenly swimming in cash.
      Also, the GOP has had real trouble attracting top-flight candidates to many of these races, and to races where freshmen Democrats might be vulnerable.
      Most pundits, at present, put one Democratic open seat in Alabama in danger.
      I do not know what might happen in 7 1/2 months. But, right now, the GOP is in trouble in Congressional races.

    40. Howard Dean says:

      Tim, You make some valid points, many I agree with.

      It is indeed an uphill battle.

      However, when the 527’s get rolling on Obama (or Hillary if he implodes) the base will turn out in record numbers.

      Many of the House seats lost in 06 were in conservative districts (and by small margins), they may be vulnerable.

      Independents are going to lean McCain heavily. Obama has BIG time problems with his far left policies, only to be compounded with Rezko and his racist mentor and long-time pastor.

      The IN-7 seat has been Dem for a long time, no one expected it to flip. That was GOP spin.

      Oberweis will probably take the seat back in Nov, when the R’s come out in bigger #’s for McCain.

      The GOP will pick up the AL seat.

      In the end, I agree, it is an uphill battle.

      I also agree that 7 1/2 mos. is a LONG time in politics.

      However, unless there is vid of McCain inappropriately touching small children, he’s in VERY good shape.

      He should be down by DOUBLE digits right now, considering the current climate.

      He is ahead in many polls and gaining ground.

    41. Howard Dean says:

      Here is what you will see from the 527’s.

      Picture this TV commercial, at the end of the video it fades to that famous pic of Obama smiling with his arm around this nutcase.

      Informing people that Obama has been friends with him and going to his church for 20 YEARS!


    42. geauxlsu says:

      Harry says the mainstream media has moved on from Jeremiah Wright story. I had to laugh. I’ve seen the story on every news channel I’ve watched today and have read a story about it in every newspaper I’ve look at online. He may have picked up some delegates but he’s dropped like a rock in daily tracking polls since the mainstream media finally covered the story that has been around for months. If 20% of white democrats were saying they would vote for McCain if Obama was the nominee BEFORE this story, I have to think those numbers shot up after they saw those videos.

    43. Michael says:

      Tim cannot accept that his hopes for a Dem president has become just that…a hope.

    44. rdelbov says:

      I have an interesting perspective on the Catholic-Evangalic Christian issue.

      1st I was raised Catholic and was one until age 29.

      2nd I have been a reformed conservative Presbyterian for the last 20 years.

      3rd the term “evangelical Christian” is a total MSM term and is frankly a made up term/word. I have never heard any Baptist, Methodist or Presbyterian minister or lay person use it as a defining term. What a shock that the MSM has no understanding of what and how Christians define themselves.

      Frankly an evangelic person is one who is eager to share one’s faith and have it led to conversion. I have met Catholics, Jews, Prebyterians, Mormons, Baptists and frankly people of nearly every faith and sect who share that trait. I know people who disclaim there is no god who want to share their non-faith and they are somewhat evangelic in doing so. In my opinion you cannot be a “Christian and not be evanaglical”

      Now there are Conservative Christians like the late Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson. There are also Liberal Christians like the late William Sloane Coffin. Rev. Coffin preached every Sunday for 50 years and I can only assume at some point he preached the gospel and encouraged People to believe in Christ? That’s a evangelical Christian to me. I sometime wonder whether the MSM was implying that Liberal Christians do not believe enough in Christ to encourage others to believe? I met tons of Liberal Christians, but none have said “do not bother to believe in any of the gospel”.

      I might add that many Conservative Christian Protestants like myself love our Fellow Christians who are Catholic. I never say “Catholics and Christians will vote for McCain”. Catholics are Christians and anyone who says different is well out of the Protestant mainstream.

    45. hugh says:


      From a Catholic’s perspective, well said. To be a practicing Christian is to be evangelical by definition. That is what the gospels ask us to do…spread the faith. It applies to us Catholics as well.

      All the same, the Catholic Church has changed dramatically in the last 15 years on politics. While many of the clergy generally agree politically with democrats. Keep in mind, Catholic priests do not have families and in some ways do not participate in America economically like Protestant clergy which have families. Thus accounting for some of their political views. However, the moral issues facing us have forced them to take positions with their parishoners that favor republicans. In my 50 years as a practicing Catholic, I have never heard a priest say who to vote for. But the church’s public stances toward elections has turned decidingly away from the democratic party. This year Catholic voting guide clearly makes it difficult to vote for the two dem presidential candidates and most congressional candidates.

    46. Tim says:

      No, my point was that I believe that there is something of a disconnect at this time in the Presidential and Congressional races. That is not anything new, of course.

      And, do I believe that Senator McCain can win? Well, certainly. Do I think that he can win, and the GOP can lose more ground in the House and Senate? Yeah, I see a distinct possibility of that, unless there is some sort of landslide in the Presidential contest. And, none of the current polling indicates that, at present.

    47. Zipota says:

      Michael, I just want Senator McCain to not take anything for granted nor do I want him to be complacent despite the “implosion” the Democratic presidential field is experiencing.

    48. Michael says:

      I agree we will lose some ground in the House and Senate. Not enough to override. Thank god the Dems like they have done in the past , have put up two unelectables. Thank the stars that Mark Warner or Evan Bayh are not in the running…or all bets would be off.

    49. rdelbov says:

      I too have never heard a priest endorse a candidate. The generation of Priests that can recall were the last of the ones like Bishop Sheen who were not only against abortion, but against porngraphy, against divorce and virelent anti communist.

      Society has changed a bit and what I was allowed to see or say as a teenager is now available to my teenagers plus 4 on the richter scale.

      So the younger guys are really up to against it with the way the world is. I had a minister who told us at my Prebyterian church that he was going to draw the line and watch any more “R” rated movies. That cuts out tons of adult movies plus frankly more then a few PG13 go well overboard on sex and violence.

      That’s what these Priests and ministers are up against these days.

      Thanks for any positive comments on this.

    50. Tim says:

      Okay, I just have to post this one for Bitterlaw and hellbelly…..

      How about them Georgia Dawgs????

      Yep, I believe im miracles.

    51. Tina says:

      How did Obama capture additional delegates (I saw that his lead went up in RP)? Did he they finally call TX Caucus?

      Its evident that the Presidential race has again turned… McCain is the only one who does not sound – look – and act like a lunatic.

      Obama’s Minister – Adolf Wright saga is still ongoing…

    52. Tina says:

      I do not think that the Rs will recapture the Senate and the House even though this D rat Congress is by far the most unpopular Congress ever. There’s just too many empty seats. However, the Democrats have not been able to seal the deal in terms of winning the Presidency.

    53. Tim says:

      Obama picked those up in Iowa, I think. Some Edwards delegates pledged for him.

      And, let me apologize for falling out of our conversation, Friday. We had those awful storms hit us, and….well, you saw it on tv, I’m sure.

    54. rdelbov says:

      Yep Iowa half of Edwards 14 went to Obama

    55. Tina says:

      Tim and rdelboy, thanks, I just read about the Iowa delegates.

      No worries, Tim. I am usually not around these parts late Friday – Sat- and Sunday. In fact, starting next Sunday, I in parts unknown for a very secret mission.

    56. Tina says:

      And Harry, your comments about the current administration overlooking specific intelligence about 9-11 in advance at the other thread are pretty stupid imo.

      If you do want to find fault – you can easily fault Clinton for slashing the CIA budget by nearly 50% and the Wall created by the senile Janet Reno.

      You can also find fault with the House for playing politics on the wiretapping bill since they won’t pass the Senate Bill (which is controlled by what party?)

    57. Tina says:

      And I hope Tim, that you and your family are safe from those storms too.

    58. lisab says:

      “The pope (On Drudge)said the war in Iraq is evil.”

      specifically he said the terrorists were evil … after they killed a bishop

    59. lisab says:

      “Catholics are Christians and anyone who says different is well out of the Protestant mainstream.”

      yup catholics are Christians, and we love our pagan bretheren too … er …

      i mean you heathen … ummmmm

      protestants is the pc term i think

    60. lisab says:

      illinois 14 went dem because the rep. candidate lost aurora … of wayne’s world fame.

      the rep who came in second in the primaries was from aurora and refused to suport the rep nominee

      he was pissed because he spent over a million of his money and lost

    61. harry says:

      You guys bite easy. I make a couple totally nuts remarks and everyone goes into battle station mode. I find it most amusing. The remarks I made were to stupid to comment on. God, I miss the Reagan days. Republicans were light hearted and loved good times. The crowd these days is totally viod of spirit and humor.

    62. maelstrom says:


      I had a question for you on earlier post IRT your Governor Palin. Curious to your opinion. She’s been mentioned as a possible McCain running mate.

      Does she have the experience and the chops to make a run on a national ticket? Or is she strictly AAA ball this go around?

    63. rdelbov says:

      No Harry I love to comment on a wide range of subjects and your comments can provide a nice opening.

      I of course cannot tell whether people are serious or not. As a matter of fact I am a big kidder. When I jokingly put forth ideas for Hillary to win its only because I want the battle to continue. Of course Hillary will do whatever she wants without consulting me.

    64. harry says:

      #63. I am very serious about this. Governor Palin is the best thing that’s happened to this state polically since I have been here(28 years). I disagree with her on the cultural issue but at the same time think she is the best governor this state has ever had. That’s the kind of effect she has on people. 85% approval rating after one year in office. She’s a conservative and populist at the same time. To answer your question I don’t think she is ready for the big leagues in Washington. If she were in the end of her second term, yes. She is a great study for other Republicans. She’s a real live hero.Very bright, hard working, and looking out for ordinary Alaskans at the same time but unassuming at the same time. She’s like the person next door but extradinary at the same time.She could take the Senate seat away from Stevens or the House seat away from Young in a heart beat.Rank and file Repubs,Dems, And Indies, we all love her.

    65. Dan says:

      Nader saved us from Gore.

      That’s rich.

      Considering that Bush is probably a worse President than even Carter. LOL

      Thanks for the laugh.

    66. Sharon says:

      Your ignorance knows no limits…..

    67. Rachel says:

      #62 – I don’t think there was much online conversation happening during the Reagan years. Gore hadn’t even invented the internet yet.

    68. Bonncaruso says:

      It’s a long way to November…
      and Gore never invented the internet nor did he claim to. He only fought for the funding to get the internet going. Just another republican playbook line…

    69. lisab says:

      the actual quote was

      “During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet. I took the initiative in moving forward a whole range of initiatives that have proven to be important to our country’s economic growth and environmental protection, improvements in our educational system. “

    70. Michael says:

      “Considering that Bush is probably a worse President than even Carter.”

      That is just your stupid opinion. Stupid is as stupid does.