Everybody Beats Hillary, Obama Beats Everybody
I am a little leary of posting this since this is one of Democrat John Zogby’s infamous interactive surveys that I hate, but it did have some interesting results, so you can come to your own conclusions. For those people who claim Barack Obama is more electable than Hillary in a General Election, they can look to fellow Democrat John Zogby’s latest poll.
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL
McCain 42%
Hillary 38%Giuliani 43%
Hillary 40%Romney 43%
Hillary 40%Huckabee 44%
Hillary 39%Thompson 44%
Hillary 40%Obama 45%
McCain 38%Obama 46%
Giuliani 41%Obama 46%
Romney 40%Obama 46%
Huckabee 40%Obama 47%
Thompson 40%Obama 42%
McCain 42%Edwards 44%
Giuliani 43%Edwards 44%
Romney 42%Edwards 43%
Huckabee 42%Edwards 45%
Thompson 42%
Interesting to note that Mike Huckabee is the strongest GOP challenger to take on Hillary. This poll was done November 21-26 among 9,150 likely voters.
first
This can’t be!
MDEFL?
WES?
I so rarely am first. And these poll results are nothing short of bizarre. It is well-known that Obama’s net roots are very strong. But really why does Zogby bother with this polling?
Welcome to planet Zogby.
if hillary was found to be ahead people would be saying it is a foregone conclusion she will win. but when she is behind people question the polls.
face it, she is not invincible. she has enemies even in her own party (mostly for not being left enough).
many people will not vote for her.
I agree with your point in #5, but would feel better if this was a real poll and not the Zogby interactive.
It was interesting to read the headline on the drudgereport where Obama is now attacking Hillary’s very credibility as a candidate…that she is only qualified as it relates to asking her husband what to do. I have been saying all along that this is the case…that Hillary is not as bright as everyone assumes her to be. I have first hand testimony from a someone who has twice questioned Hillary on local issues in New York state only to find her slow to come up with a good response. Once you get her away from the planned questions and her script, her bulb is shown to be not that bright (as Tim Russert showed us a few weeks ago).
her main qualification for senate was that her husband cheated on her and got caught.
Howard, remember this quote from Zogby in May 2004? “The race is Kerry’s to lose.” I’m willing to bet Zogby knows no more of what he’s talking about now than he did then. What else can I expect though from a web troll obsessed with a man whose defining moment can be sized up in one word–“YYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH”?
Lisa–whoops, I almost put the babe suffix on that one; glad I caught myselg–many people voted against every President from Monroe (the first President a majority of Americans could vote for) to Bush. That many people will vote against the Stellar’s Sea Cow occupying Pat Moynihan’s old seat in no way means she will lose. That the Republicans have almost no money, no issues to run on, the albatross of an unpopular war around their necks, a tonedeaf administratiojn that seems to effervesce whenever its polls sink to new lows hanging like a Damoclean sword over their heads, and polls that indicate almost all of them–excepting McCain, who in the end wouldn’t have a legitimate chance–lose, though generally by small margins, to her indicates they are likely to lose.
This is early polling and she still can pull out and win. However this poll gives credibility to other polls and it proves that her flip flop is hurting. If she takes for granted the electorade and conservatives and libarterians unite well, she will be defeated.
It’s Zogby. His track record is just awful. We all know this.
Wes,
i totally agree that she can win … a few weeks ago i may have even thought she is likely to win … but i don’t now.
what do you think her chances of winning the nomination are? it isn’t 100% because obviously she could die, maybe obama will win, maybe she does something really stupid etc.
let’s say, for the sake of argument she has a 90% chance of getting the nomination. in the general what are her chances? again she has the same issues. she could do something stupid, the rep candidate could catch fire, she could die etc. even if you think she has a 90% chance of winning the general if she is indeed nominated her chances right now are still 90% times 90% equals 81%.
that means that even with fairly generous assumptions about her chances in the primaries and general she still has roughly a 20% chance of losing.
Lisa, barring her death or intervention from God–wait, I used that G word again; ah, well, the liberals on here will live–Hillary takes this one. My current belief is a 288-250 victory for her with some slight northward possibilities in her progression. To all you Republicans on here who were devastated at the idea of a Kerry presidency, I ask you: which would have been better–Kerry beating Bush narrowly and facing a GOP Congress while shoving his foot in his mouth daily or a the Bush meltdown that’s setting the Dems up for absolute power after next year? Gee, I wonder. Ah, the saying gos, Beware what you ask for, for it may come to pass. You got an incompetent just as you (and I) voted for him. Now you have to live with the consequences of your actions. Maybe one day you’ll learn voting for incompetent Presidents is no help to the GOP, but I doubt it.
Wes, I suppose the GOP was supposed to not re-nominate a sitting president in 2004. You should be a campaign manager.
Well, Darrell, let’s see: Bush renominated and reelected–GOP drops from 12 years of majority power in the House and 10 1/2 in the Senate to losing with the distinct possiblity–and likelihood–of giving up more ground next year. Hoover renominated to face Roosevelt–defeated by the fourth widest popular margin in history, plunging GOP into nearly 72 years of backbenching. Damn, man, renominating those two worked out extremely well for you. Look, man, why don’t you just admit Bush performed well in his first term but collapsed in his second term? Ah, but that would be logical, wouldn’t it? A little like acknowledging the public didn’t want you to pass a federal law to keep a braindead woman alive. It’s too logical for you to admit. I see the Right has moonbats every bit as delusional as the Left’s.
In the end I think that Hillary does not win, because people will finally come to grips with the fact the same two families have been in the white house for the last 20 years, and its time for a change.
Wes, you have proposed that I hold positions that I have nowhere here said that I hold. Nowhere here have I said that I love Bush. I simply asserted that its silly for a party to not re-nominate a sitting president.
And 15-foot-tall green Martians will land on my doorstep just after Maria Sharapova, Veronica Varekova, and Elle Macpherson show up to make wedding proposals, Darrell. It’s better if you quit lying to yourself now so you can accept reality when it happens, Darrell. Oh, wait, that’s logic again. Never mind.
Furthermore, if you go back and look at past congressional elections, it is not uncommon for the party in the White house to lose seats in the mid-term elections. I blame the ineptitute of the GOP leadership in congress and the senate more than Bush for the losses in 2006.
It worked pretty well for the GOP in 1880, Darrell. That’s a long time ago but still when Hayes saw the proverbial handwriting on the wall, he knew it was time to call it quits and made sure the GOP kept the presidency in 1880.
Well, Dave should post this much more.
Please check galluppoll.com for new Head-to-Head pitting Hillary/Obama gainst Rudy/McCain/Thompson and Romney.
Both Democrats led in 7 Match-Ups and Obama is tied with Rudy at 45 %.
ok…like 1880 politics has any correlation at all to today’s environment.
Every President–except Teddy Roosevelt–has lost seats in at least one midterm. That the GOP lost all its seats in the Senate by defeat of incumbents and nearly matched that in the House indicates there was a deep dislike of the GOP as a whole. The last time any party suffered that was 1932 under Hoover. Again an unpopular President dragging his party down. I really recommend you buy or borrow a copy of Winning Elections, ed by Ron Faucheux. One of the first entries has the following statement: Never understimate the danger of an unpopular administration. You would do well to remember that.
Politics is politics whether now or 200 years ago. Issues may change, but fundamentals of races do not. Gun control may help someone one year but not the next, as may a whole raft of other issues. Ernie Fletcher, for instance, would have done well to follow Hayes’ example. Hayes knew he had no chance so stepped aside for his successor. Fletcher did not. Guess who saw the man he wanted in office after the election and who didn’t.
Wes,
it is extremely unlikely that hillary has anything like a 50-50 chance of winning right now.
of course it is doubtful that any candidate does.
and hillary has a chance of going down in flames if nominated. it is not at all out of the question she could pull a mondale.
of all the candidates i see hillary as having the biggest variance in vote totals. at best i can see her getting maybe 55% but at worst 40% of the vote. she is the woman everyone loves to hate … well besides tim of course.
Sorry, Lisa, but that’s not going to happen. Thanks to Bush, Hillary takes it. End of story. Sorry, Lisa, but your fantasy scenario of a Hillary blowup won’t happen simply because even if it does, the GOP has no credible chance of winning barring the advent of Goetterdammerung.
“New poll shows Clinton trails top 2008 Republicans”
Do you realize what a headline like this does to Dem Primary voters?
Enormous psychological effect.
“Thanks to Bush, Hillary takes it. End of story.”
Wes,
you seem to be saying that the reps have a 0% chance of winning and that hillary will win.
the markets, on the other hand, say the reps have about a 38% chance of winning. hillary is about at a 70% chance of winning the nomination. this gives hillary, as quoted by the market about a 43% chance of winning both the nomination and the general.
therefore, if you are rational, and really believe what you say … then you should sell everything you own, borrow money on your credeet carrds, boorrow from your family, moortgage your house etc.
and beht hillary will win.
sorry for the spelling but David’s site checks for certain words
Zogby’s polls are basically toilet paper.
“Zogby’s polls are basically toilet paper.”
Amen.