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    September 23, 2022

    Laxalt Leads in Three Polls in NV

    We have not one, not two, but three polls out of Nevada this week that shows Republicans might be in a good position to pick up the US Senate seat in Nevada. They come from Insider Advantage, Trafalgar Group, and Data for Progress.

    US SENATE – NEVADA (Data For Progress)
    Adam Laxalt (R) 47%
    Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) 46%

    US SENATE – NEVADA (Trafalgar Group)
    Adam Laxalt (R) 47%
    Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – NEVADA (Insider Advantage)
    Adam Laxalt (R) 46%
    Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) 43%

    The DFP poll was done September 14-19, the Trafalgar poll was done September 17-20 and the IA poll as done September 20, all among likely voters.

    September 20, 2022

    Walker Both Leads Warnock By 2% and Trails Warnock By 5% in Two Separate Polls in GA

    We have two polls out of Georgia this morning that seem to contradict each other on the state of the race for the US Senate but seem to be in line on gubernatorial race. In a poll from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Herschel Walker holds a slight lead over Raphael Warnock while Brian Kemp is now up by high single digits over Stacey Abrams. Marist College shows a similar high single-digit lead for Kemp over Abrams but shows the opposite result in the US Senate race with Warnock up by 5%.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (AJC)
    Herschel Walker (R) 46%
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Marist)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 47%
    Herschel Walker (R) 42%

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (AJC)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 50%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 42%

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (Marist)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 50%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 44%

    The AJC poll was done over a much longer period of time, September 5-16, among 861 likely voters. The Marist College poll was done September 12-15 and is among registered voters, which still using RVs this late in the election cycle seems a little odd and may be why the results are more favorable to the Democrats than the AJC poll.

    September 19, 2022

    Moore Crushing Cox By 22% in MD Gov Race

    Despite their own Governor having a job approval ratings consistently above the 60% level and sometimes even above the 70% level, Republicans in Maryland decided back in July they would rather go with the Donald Trump-backed candidate of Dan Cox instead of Hogan’s preferred choice of Kelly Schulz. even in the heat of the primary, just about everyone outside the Trump/Cox orbit was predicting that it would be a disaster for Maryland Republicans. Now we have a new poll out this morning from Goucher College that shows what a disaster it will be as Democrat Wes Moore holds a 22% lead over Cox.

    GOVERNOR – MARYLAND (Goucher)
    Wes Moore (D) 53%
    Dan Cox (R) 31%

    So instead of going with the electable Kelly Schulz and having an extended at least 12-year run in the Governor’s mansion, the Maryland Republicans will go back into the political obscurity they have lived in just about my entire cognizant life. This poll was done September 8-12 among 748 likely voters.

    September 17, 2022

    Oz Within 2% Of Fetterman in PA, Vance Leads in Two Polls in OH, Another Poll Has Johnson Up in WI

    We have a new poll from the Trafalgar Group that shows both Republican candidates within 2% of their respective Democratic opponents for the open US Senate and Gubernatorial seats in the state of Pennsylvania.

    US SENATE – PENNSYLVANIA (Trafalgar)
    John Fetterman (D) 48%
    Mehmet Oz (R) 46%

    GOVERNOR – PENNSYLVANIA (Trafalgar)
    Josh Shapiro (D) 47%
    Doug Mastriano (D) 45%

    This poll was done September 13-15 among 1078 likely voters. Meanwhile in Ohio, some good polling news for Republican JD Vance as two new polls, one from Emerson College and one from Civiqs, have him in the lead over Democrat Tim Ryan.

    US SENATE – OHIO (Emerson)
    JD Vance (R) 44%
    Tim Ryan (D) 40%

    US SENATE – OHIO (Civiqs)
    JD Vance (R) 48%
    Tim Ryan (D) 45%

    The Emerson poll was done September 10-13 among 1000 likely voters while the Civiqs poll was done September 10-13 among 780 likely voters. Also from Civiqs is a new poll in the state of Wisconsin that shows Republican Ron Johnson above Democrat Mandela Barnes.

    US SENATE – WISCONSIN (Civiqs)
    Ron Johnson (R-inc) 49%
    Mandela Barnes (D) 48%

    This poll was done September 10-13 among 780 likely voters.

    There is a rumor out there that we might be seeing a long-awaited poll for the gubernatorial race in my home state of Maryland on Monday where we will finally see if the Donald Trump-backed Dan Cox has any prayer to keep the Maryland gubernatorial seat in Republican hands after the immensely popular Republican Larry Hogan leaves office or whether Republicans will have managed to hand this seat back to the Democrats with their selection of Cox as their nominee.

    Posted by Dave at 4:50 pm
    Filed under: General | Comments (60) | Display Comments On Separate Page

    September 14, 2022

    Johnson Surges Into Lead in WI, Walker Trails by 6% to Warnock in GA

    According to a new poll from Marquette Law School, Republican Ron Johnson has completely erased a 7% deficit he was facing in a poll from same organization and now is up by a single percentage point over Democrat Mandela Barnes.

    US SENATE – WISCONSIN (Marquette)
    Ron Johnson (R-inc) 49%
    Mandela Barnes (D) 48%

    This poll was done September 6-11 among 632 likely voters. But while things are looking better for Republicans in Wisconsin, Quinnipiac University gives Republicans some bad news in Georgia as Herschel Walker is down 6% and Brian Kemp’s lead over Stacey Abrams is only 2%.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Quinnipiac)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 52%
    Herschel Walker (R) 46%

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (Quinnipiac)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 50%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 48%

    The goo dnews for Republicans in this poll is at is actually better than the double-digit deficit Quinnipiac showed for Walker in June and more favorable for Kemp than the 48%/48% split the previous Quinnipiac poll showed. This poll was done September 8-12 among 1278 likely voters.

    September 13, 2022

    Laxalt Leads By 1% in NV, Budd Leads By 3% in NC

    The race in Nevada continue to represent one of the Republican’s best chances of a pickup in the US Senate according to a new poll from Emerson College.

    US SENATE – NEVADA (Emerson)
    Adam Laxalt (R) 42%
    Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) 41%

    This poll was done September 8-10 among 1000 likely voters. Meanwhile in North Carolina, a new poll from East Carolina University has Republican Ted Budd in his bid to keep this seat in Republican hands.

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (ECU)
    Ted Budd (R) 49%
    Cheri Beasley (D) 46%

    This poll was done September 7-10 among 1020 likely voters.

    September 10, 2022

    Walker Leads Warnock By 3% in GA

    We received new polls from Insider Advantage for the states of Georgia and Arizona and we will start in Georgia where Republican Herschel Walker may pull off an incredible upset as the latest poll has him up by 3% over the incumbent Raphael Warnock.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (IA)
    Herschel Walker (R) 47%
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 44%

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (IA)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 50%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 42%

    This poll was done September 6-7 among 550 likely voters. Meanwhile in Arizona, Democrats are faring a little better.

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (IA)
    Mark Kelly (D-inc) 45%
    Blake Masters (R) 39%

    GOVERNOR – ARIZONA (IA)
    Katie Hobbs (D) 44%
    Kari Lake (R) 43%

    This poll was done September 6-7 among 550 likely voters.

    August 30, 2022

    Walker Leads Warnock in Two New Polls in GA

    Is Raphael Warnock starting to run into trouble in Georgia? Two new polls out over the weekend and today have Republican Herschel Walker ahead of the incumbent Democrat and they come The Trafalgar Group and Emerson College.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Emerson)
    Herschel Walker (R) 46%
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Trafalgar)
    Herschel Walker (R) 48%
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 47%

    The Trafalgar poll was done August 24-27 among 1079 likely voters. The Emerson College poll was done August 28-29 among 600 likely voters.

    August 22, 2022

    Vance Leads in OH, Laxlat Leads in NV, Oz Trails in PA

    The Trafalgar Group has released polls for three competitive US Senate races that show Republican candidates leading in both Ohio and Nevada while they trail in Pennsylvania.

    US SENATE – OHIO (Trafalgar)
    JD Vance (R) 50%
    Tim Ryan (D) 45%

    US SENATE – PENNSYLVANIA (Trafalgar)
    John Fetterman (D) 48%
    Mehmet Oz (R) 44%

    US SENATE – NEVADA (Trafalgar)
    Adam Laxalt (R) 47%
    Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) 44%

    The NV and PA polls were done August 15-18 while the OH poll was done August 16-19, all among likely voters.

    August 19, 2022

    GOP Senate Candidates Trail in AZ and WI, Tied in NC

    We received new polls for the races in Arizona and Wisconsin yesterday that shows Republican Blake Masters trailing badly in his bid to pick up a seat for Republicans while Republican incumbent Rob Johnson is also trailing in his bid to keep a seat in Republican hands.

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (Fox News)
    Mark Kelly (D-inc) 50%
    Blake Masters (R) 42%

    US SENATE – WISCONSON (Fox News)
    Mandela Barnes (D) 50%
    Ron Johnson (R-inc) 46%

    These polls were done August 12-16 among registered voters. Meanwhile, another US Senate seat Republican need to hang onto is in North Carolina and right now a new poll from Cygnal shows a dead-head tie to see who wins Thom Tillis’s seat.

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Cygnal)
    Cherie Beasley (D) 42%
    Ted Budd (R) 42%

    This poll was done August 13-15 among 615 likely voters.

    As we all know, Republicans need to pick up one net seat to gain a majority. You have to wonder how this is even possible when we are seeing in seats they currently have to maintain, they are either trailing or are struggling to be at best even in Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.