December 2, 2022

    Warnock Leads Three New Polls in GA

    We have three new polls out for the US Senate race in Georgia where Republicans (and Donald Trump for that matter) are trying to salvage something positive from the 2022 Election. The bad news for them, it looks like Raphael Warnock is holding a small edge in his bid for re-election over the Donald Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker. The polls come from CNN, Emerson College, and Survey USA.

    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 52%
    Herschel Walker (R) 48%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Emerson)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 51%
    Herschel Walker (R) 49%

    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 50%
    Herschel Walker (R) 47%

    The Survey USA poll was done November 26-30 among 1214 likely voters. The Emerson poll was done November 28-30 among 888 likely voters. The CNN poll was done November 25-29 among 1184 likely voters.

    For the initial election, Survey USA had Warnock up by 6% in their final poll and Emerson had Warnock up by 2% in their final poll. CNN did not appear to release a public poll for this race before November 8th. The final result was Warnock 49.44% to Walker 48.49% (just shy of a 1% margin), so both measurable polls where titled Democratic the last time around.

    November 26, 2022

    Trump Dominates GOP Field for 2024

    I hope everyone is enjoying the Thanksgiving weekend holiday as much as Donald Trump is when he saw the new poll from Emerson College released the day before Thanksgiving that showed him leading the Republican race for 2024.

    Donald Trump 55%
    Ron DeSantis 25%
    Mike Pence 8%
    Ted Cruz 3%
    Nikki Haley 3%
    Larry Hogan 1%
    Josh Hawley 0%

    Interestingly, Trump and DeSantis are basically even with each other when it comes to their respective strength against Joe Biden.

    Joe Biden (D-inc) 45%
    Donald Trump (R) 41%

    Joe Biden (D-inc) 43%
    Ron DeSantis (R) 39%

    This poll was done November 18-19 among 1380 registered voters and 614 Republican primary voters.

    November 14, 2022

    2024: DeSantis Surges Ahead of Trump in TX

    We have the first poll post-2022 election that is showing the effects of Ron DeSantis’ resounding victory and Donald Trump resounding defeat on the shape of the 2024 primary race. A new poll from CWS Research shows Ron DeSantis now ahead of Donald Trump by double digits in the state of Texas in a potential 2024 primary race for President.

    Ron DeSantis 43%
    Donald Trump 32%
    Mike Pence 5%
    Nikki Haley 4%
    Tim Scott 1%
    Mike Pompeo 1%

    This poll was done November 12-13 among 1099 likely primary voters. Back at the end of October, this same polling organization showed Trump with a 46%-29% edge on the DeSantis. That is a 28% change in barley three weeks.

    The rumor has it that Trump will announce a new bid tomorrow, at least according to this news article from CBS News.

    November 9, 2022

    Election 2022 Morning After Thread

    After being accused that my predictions yesterday morning were too pro-Democratic, it turns out I may have been too pro-Republican after all.

    Dan Cox went down in flames. He does stand at 37% at the moment (I had predicted 34%); but, Cox being the face of the Maryland Republicans really hurt Republicans down ballot too. For example, my home county elected a Republican County Executive in 2014 and voted for Larry Hogan in 2014 and 2018. After last night, Republicans in my home county are literally left with a single County Council member (out of five), zero State Senators (out of three), and a single House delegate (out of eight). Add to that every other elected position, both Statewide and Countywide, were won easily by Democrats. The “Meet your Elected Officials” page at the local party’s website will literally have a grand total of two people listed on it.

    But maybe things are looking up for the MDGOP. I keep seeing that it is all Larry Hogan’s fault anyway (the man who by the way won two statewide elections as a Republican in Maryland) because he refused to endorse Cox (a man who actually filed articles of impeachment against Hogan this year before he was the nominee and then humorously complained with seemingly no self awareness about Hogan not endorsing him). Maryland Republicans can finally be rid of the man who actually wins elections and gleefully return to their permanent minority status.

    US Senate prediction – I said status quo except for a Democratic pickup in PA and Republican pickup in NV. That may actually pan out exactly as I stated. Control of the US Senate may actually hinge once again on a runoff in Georgia.

    US House prediction – I said 229 seats for Republicans. It looks like I might have been too optimistic for Republicans.

    November 8, 2022

    2022 Election Night Thread

    It is 6pm EST and the polls are closing in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Let the night of fun begin….

    2022 Election Morning Thread

    It’s admittedly been a slow year for me on this site. The passion is just not there this time around. I’ll start today’s Election Day with my predictions for this Election Cycle after tonight:

    US Senate – Democrats (and their leaning Independents) manage to stay on 50 seats, winning in Pennsylvania but losing in Nevada.

    US House – Republicans take control with 229 seats when all the counting is done.

    Governor of Maryland – Dan Cox gets maximum of 34%

    November 6, 2022

    Three Polls in NH have US Senate Race Within 2%

    Here we are on Election Eve Eve and despite the seemingly limited state polling released today, we did get three new polls for the suddenly competitive race in New Hampshire where Republicans are looking to pick off this US Senate seat. The polls come from the University of New Hampshire, Wick and Insider Advantage.

    Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 50%
    Don Bolduc (R) 48%

    Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 48%
    Don Bolduc (R) 48%

    Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 49%
    Don Bolduc (R) 48%

    The UNH poll was done November 2-6, the Insider Advantage poll was done November 5th and the Wick poll was done November 2-5, all among likely voters.

    November 4, 2022

    Marist: Fetterman leads By 6% in PA, Kelly Leads By 3% in AZ, Race Tied in GA

    If believe Marist College this morning, Democrats may be on the verge of at least gaining one seat in the state of Pennsylvania while keeping their seats in both Georgia and Arizona.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Marist)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 48%
    Herschel Walker (R) 48%

    John Fetterman (D) 51%
    Mehmet Oz (R) 45%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (Marist)
    Mark Kelly (D-inc) 50%
    Blake Masters (R) 47%

    These polls were done October 31-November 2 and the numbers above represent the race among “definite” voters. The races shift more Democratic among all registered voters. One thing I am noticing that will be an interesting discussion after the election when reviewing a site like 538. It is becoming noticeably that the pollster with A+, A and A- ratings in their analysis are much more Democratic leaning in general while pollsters with B and lower ratings tend to be more Republican leaning. Depending on how things turn out on Tuesday will go a long way to determining how valid these grades 538 applies really are.

    November 3, 2022

    Biden Coming To MD on Election Eve, Oz Leads Fetterman By 2% in PA

    Wait, what? According to The Hill, Joe Biden is coming to my hometown of Columbia, MD and Howard County for a rally. Is he aware that Democrats outnumber Republcians by almost a 2.5:1 margin and the Democratic candidate for Governor and US Senator are leading by 20-30 percentage points? Am I missing something?

    President Biden on Monday will campaign for Democrats in Maryland to mark the day before Election Day.

    He will travel Columbia, Md., and participate in a rally for the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the White House announced on Tuesday. Columbia is about 45-minutes away from the White House in Howard County.

    If it is late enough in the day and available enough for the public to attend, I might just have to figure out a way to attend just for the novelty of it.

    To have a poll for this thread, we have a new poll from Emerson College for hte state of Pennsylvania that shows Dr. Mehmet Oz moving ahead of Democrat John Fetterman.

    Mehmet Oz (R) 48%
    John Fetterman (D) 46%

    This poll was done October 28-31 among 1000 likely voters.

    November 1, 2022

    Bolduc Surges Ahead Of Hassan In NH

    Is New Hampshire giving Republicans a chance at another US Senate seat that was really not on the immediate radar in recent weeks? A new poll from Saint Anselm College is showing Republican Don Bolduc up by a single-percentage point over the incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan.

    US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Saint Anselm)
    Don Bolduc (R) 485
    Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 47%

    This poll was done October 28-29 among 1541 likely voters.