March 26, 2023

    Open Thread Sunday

    Here is a clean thread for now.

    March 5, 2023

    Hogan Won’t Run in 2024

    Sad day for America (and especially for the future of the Republican Party’s hope for future national relevance) as Larry Hogan decides not to run for President. His full statement.

    February 13, 2023

    Democrat Now Leads Gov Race in Mississippi

    The damage Donald Trump has done to the Republican Party and their electoral prospects has spread to the bright-red state of Mississippi where even their incumbent Governor might be in trouble of keeping this seat in GOP hands later this year according to a new poll from Mississippi Today and Tulchin Research.

    GOVERNOR – MISSISSIPPI (Tulchin Research)
    Brandon Presley (D) 47%
    Tate Reeves (R-inc) 43%

    This poll was done January 21-25 among 500 registered voters,

    February 5, 2023

    Trump Leads Biden By 3% in New ABC-WaPo Poll

    Buried in this new article from The Washington Post about a new poll they did with ABC News highlighting how it seems very few people want to see a 2020 rematch in 2024 is the actual hypothetical matchup that shows Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by 3%.

    Donald Trump (R) 48%
    Joe Biden (D-inc) 45%

    This poll was done January 27-February 1 among registered voters.

    January 27, 2023

    Beshear Leads Race for Re-Election in KY

    Something unrelated to the 2024 Presidential race for once, a new poll from Mason-Dixon Polling for the Kentucky gubernatorial race later this year where the Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear holds a solid lead over a gaggle of potential Republican challengers.

    GOVERNOR – KENTUCKY (Mason-Dixon)
    Andy Beshear (D-inc) 49%
    Daniel Cameron (R) 40%

    Andy Beshear (D-inc) 57%
    Kelly Craft (R) 32%

    Andy Beshear (D-inc) 52%
    Ryan Quarles (R) 35%

    Andy Beshear (D-inc) 53%
    Mike Harmon (R) 33%

    Daniel Cameron 39%
    Kelly Craft 13%
    Ryan Quarles 8%
    Mike Harmon 5%
    Alan Keck 2%
    Eric Deters 2%
    Bob DeVore 1%
    David Cooper 1%
    Robbie Smith 1%
    Everyone Else <1%

    This poll was done January 18-23 among 625 registered voters and additional augmented sample of 404 likely primary voters.

    January 10, 2023

    Trump Leads GOP Field By Double Digits Over DeSantis

    Polls are going to be sparse these days so for the time being, the latest tracking poll of the Republican primary race from Morning Consult shows Republicans still haven’t figured out how much damage Donald Trump has done and still prefer him to be the face of their party for 2024.

    Trump 46%
    DeSantis 33%
    Pence 9%
    Cheney 3%
    Haley 2%
    Cruz 2%
    Abbott 1%
    Pompeo 1%
    T. Scott 1%
    Noem 0%
    Youngkin 0%

    This poll was done January 6-8 among 4470 registered primary voters.

    January 2, 2023

    Happy New Year – 2023

    It’ll take me a little to figure out how much longer I am going to go with this site but for now at least I’ll give you a new thread for the new year.

    December 22, 2022

    Lake Leads Three-Way Race in AZ

    Public Policy Polling was paid by Ruben Gallego to do a poll and the results show Kyrsten Sinema as an Independent may help Republican Kari Lake in a three-way race.

    Kari Lake (R) 41%
    Ruben Gallego (D) 40%
    Kyrsten Sinema (I-inc) 13%

    Ruben Gallego (D) 48%
    Kari Lake (R) 47%

    Kari Lake (R) 42%
    Kyrsten Sinema (I-inc) 39%

    This poll was done December 19-20 among 678 registered voters.

    December 10, 2022

    Biden Leads Trump in Two New Polls in MI

    We shift to 2024 and w had two new polls come out of Michigan this week, both showing Joe Biden would defeat the 2020 loser Donald Trump in a rematch. The polls come from EPIC-MRA and Public Policy Polling.

    Joe Biden (D-inc) 47%
    Donald Trump (R) 43%

    Joe Biden (D-inc) 50%
    Donald Trump (R) 43%

    This PPP was done for Progress Michigan and was done December 6-7 among 763 registered voters. The EPIC-MRA poll was done November 30-December 6 among 600 likely voters.

    December 6, 2022

    Warnock At 51% in Three New Polls in GA

    There is one consistent theme with the three latest public polls in Georgia – all three polls show Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock sitting at 51% in the runoff election against Trump-back Herschel Walker. These latest three polls come from Insider Advantage, UMass-Lowell, and Data for Progress.

    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 51%
    Herschel Walker (R) 48%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (UMass-Lowell)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 51%
    Herschel Walker (R) 46%

    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 51%
    Herschel Walker (R) 49%

    The Data for Progress poll was done December 1-5 among 1229 likely voters. The Insider Advantage poll was done December 4th among 750 likely voters. The UMass poll is a little older and was done November 18-28 among 1300 likely voters.

    For the initial election, Insider Advantage has Walker up by 2% in their final poll and Data for Progress had Walker up by 1% in their final poll. UMass-Lowell did not appear to release a public poll for this race before November 8th. The final result was Warnock 49.44% to Walker 48.49% (just shy of a 1% margin), so both measurable polls where tilted towards Walker the last time around so a swing towards Warnock this time is notable.