Alaska is turning a page
 I think Stevens has lost and will be shortly either getting a pension or a orange jumpsuit.
Senator Ted Stevens was named “Alaskan of the Century” and yes the major airport in the state is named after him. In a strange way sad and tragic events as well as fate have shaped events in Alaska.  There have been a small cast of characters in this huge state who like a Greek tragedy have been on and off stage in inter-related ways for 40 plus years.
I like to think that the Ted Stevens story started with a Camelot type beginning when Stewart Udall was appointed Interior Secretary by JFK. Say what? Well Udall stuck around for 8 years as an LBJ holdover and frankly his policies and for that matter LBJ’s land politics were none too popular in Alaska. Udall more or less set land policy like ANWR and its been a thorn in the side of Alaska ever since.   Walter Hickel beat the democratic governor of Alaska in 1966 riding a wave of anti- Democratic feeling in Alaska. Then in 1968 US Senator Bob Bartlett died and Hickel appointed you guess it Ted Stevens to the US senate. He won a special election in 1970 and been around ever since making himself the Alaskan of the Century.
Now what about the side of this 2008 senate race Mark Begich. Well in 1969 Walter Hickel became Interior secretary under Richard Nixon. Hickel and Nixon found they could not easily undo everything Udall set in place as their policies became unpopular in Alaska. In 1970 one Nick Begich beat Frank Murkowski for an open house seat in Alaska (Murkowski won a senate seat in 1980 then a governor’s chair in 2002 and his daughter is a US senator now, but that’s another story)
Congressman Begich was running for Re-election in 1972 against a former tug-boat captain named Don Young. While on a fundraising swing thru Alaska with Hale Boggs (who was the House Majority leader) there was a tragic plane crash. Begich and Boggs went lost on Oct 16, 1972 and no sign of them have ever been found. His son Mark was ten years old at the time. Begich beat Don Young (who had stopped campaigning) and eventually the seat became vacant. Young won the special election and holds that seat to this very day.
 Mark Begich became Mayor of Anchorage and due to the hubris and apparent dishonesty of Ted Stevens will be a US senator. A son and nephew of Stuart Udall were both elected to the USA senate this November. Guess what?  The Udall boys will be fighting tooth and nail against Mark Begich on numerous Alaskan land issues.Â
The daughter of the man Begich’s father beat in 1970, Lisa Murkowski, will be the senior senator of Alaska. She and Begich will make common cause against senators in the lower 48 who see Alaskan land issues a little different then they do. Â
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one
Yeah, I think Stevens has lost this one, as well.
and when will Young be indicted?
And to add to the sour note:
Per Drudge, the democrats are preparing for investigations into the Bush administration.
I’m thinking a cross between Nuremburg and the Salem Witch Trials.
You can not just pee away these seats. The Rs had 2 years to dump Stevens. This is a Republican state.
Tina
we saw in 2002 that NJ democrats ruthlessly dumped the Torch to save a senate seat. The GOP did not dump Stevens.
I guess being a living legend saved him, but a senate seat is a horrible thing to waste.
Yes Rdelbov, this really bothers me. These seats should be a given for the Rs. 6 years is a long time to try to reclaim the seat.
We are now looking at Ds having 59 to 60 Seats. With Rinos, there is nothing to stop the Ds.
Jobless numbers out. Bad again. Up to 512,000.
Wonder how much the stock market will be down again?
Lets have another bailut.
Where are the cons here defending the bail out?
Put money and resources into Georgia and try to save that seat. What else can you do at this point?
#10. McCain and Palin will be campaigning for Chambliss.
Wait until all the votes are counted, for one. But second, I suspect that many GOP upper-brass will probably be relieved if Stevens loses, for then they will not have the public debacle of having to throw him out of the senate, which I am sure they would do in order to preserve what is left of the GOP’s reputation.
As for Georgia, I think in a runoff that the GOP will prevail.
MN: good lord, at this point, flip a coin. Either way it will be a recount, of this I am now sure.
This is too bad as I think Palin would have ran once Stevens got out, and it would have elevated her national exposure. Now her option is just to remain as Alaska’s governor and run for re-election.
It’s absolutely insane that Alaska will have a D Senator.
RNC is asking for $$$ for MN. A friend got a call.
They will find the necessary votes in this one for the lunatic to win it.
Two pieces of good economic news:
1. Oil prices continue to decline. They are now in the mid $50s.
2. Trade deficit fell sharply today for September. This means that GDP could be revised upward for the 3rd Quarter (to positive from -0.3%).
Tina
I admit to being the 1st one, or among the 1st ones here to defend the bailout. Did politics and my desire to see McCain get pulled in motivate me.
Yes partially. I can’t give you a %, but I guess part of the cost of having democratic elections is that stuff like this economic mess happens in election years and it impacts things.
Secondly the Fannie/Freddie housing mess was caused by the government. Frankly it was mostly a democratic stew in my opinion, but it became a worldwide mess. Bush/Paulson had no choice, but to deal with it. Frankly they made a mess of fix.
when Obama and the democrats get in they will make it worse.
If Obama and the democrats scrap Nafta and start trying to end “free trade” we could be back to Great depression days.
I suspect cooler heads will prevail and we will muddle thru economically under Obama with our system a little less free then before.
Obama like Clinton will end up mostly focusing on liberal court appointees and other liberal social policies.
Gasoline in my locale is now $2.29 a gallon, down from $2.40 last week, and $2.69 the week before.
Rdelbov, some kind of bail out was needed, but it looks like Paulson failed.
Also, absent any correction and refors of Fannie Mae, we are only bound to prolong the ecoomic downturn/compoung the errors of government, which you duly noted.
Gas here is down to $1.89. That is an economic stimulus. We don’t need another huge government expenditure.
Gas here is $1.84 but 30 minutes to the east in MO it’s $1.65
What happens if the Dem Congress investigates President Bush? Speculation Nothing Good can come of it.
I think its when he leaves office. Pretty much using the Harry Truman case, then nothing the D-rat controlled Congress can do.
If they want to continue to investigate the firing of Attorneys – its also a waste of time since they serve at the pleasure of the President. Its an Execuive branch function. So, again the D-rat congress would be wasting a lo of time.
#21. We can only hope they do that. It would be a vast overreach at a time people want answers to our many problem.
They aren’t that dumb – unfortunately.
O’hole’s new “Office of Urban Policy”
Nothing more than ACORN at the national level. With the O’hole being a community organizer, it will likely be overfunded and do nothing more than hand out “street money” and register homeless for elections.
#21
Only sets the precedent for O’hole to be investigated when he leaves.
I have not been keeping up with politics lately. What happened in the Alaska Senate Race? I thought Stevens was going to win. I thought he as ahead by around 2,000 votes last Wednesday? Wow, if the Dems pickup Alaska (red seat), MN and GA, they have the supermajority…how scary.
What happens if the Dem Congress investigates President Bush? Speculation Nothing Good can come of it.
Comment by L TePaske
If the Dems pursue this, they will end up squandering their turn at power like the GOP did. Instead of pursuing the Clinton impeachment, the GOP should have focused on limiting the size and scope of the federal government. Let’s not forget that Moveon.org was started as a response to the Clinton impeachment. Again, this is why the social issues need to take a back seat. All that moralizing about Clinton’s behavior, only to find out that Newt, Livingston, Hyde and many others had done the same.
Palin to deliver speech in Florida soon – I think at the Republican Congress meeting???
If Stevens pulls this one out, he should resign. I think she will then run for the senate seat.
#27, i was hoping for that….If not, this seat will be in dem hands for 6 years at least.
tina:
how do you feel about the Ga runoff? I am very concern.
They won’t spend time and capital investigating an administration long gone.
They will focus instead on their greatest opportunity ever to reshape this country into a social welfare state ala France and Germany. When have they ever had an opportunity like this – the most left wing president in history plus liberal super majorities in both houses of congress?
union card check, fairness doctrine, packing the courts with left wing judges, rolling back the military, pulling the plug on Israael, amnesty for illegals, consolidating their ballot advantages with national same day voter registration, government run health care……these are where it’s at. Why worry about prosecuting the Bush administration when you have a onece in a generation opportunity to remake the country?
David, I am concerned too. Tim says that the Rs should retain the GA seat. I trust what he says since he is involved with the Ds.
#13, Mike,
Insane like VA having two Democrat senators. Who would have thought that in 2006.
Tina, You want another bailout?
How about this:
City Council: Detroit needs $10-billion bailout
BY NAOMI R. PATTON • FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER • November 12, 2008
The Detroit City Council passed a resolution today calling for a $10-billion bailout for the city of Detroit.
#23….Oh, yes they are.
What does Nate Silver say? I can’t stand him, but he keeps being right.
I DARE the Dems to send $10 billion to Detroit.
What difference does it make whether we keep the GA seat or not? Chambliss voted for the Senior RX program and the Paulson bailout. He also pushed for amnesty. BTW, if the GOP thinks that it can win the Latino vote by now embracing amnesty, they will be sorely disappointed. The more I think about it. The more I think it will take decades for the GOP to get in power barring some kind of foreign policy disaster for Obama.
HD – no, I do not support a bail out – as i did not support the WS Bail out (perhaps a minority opinion here). Just joking.
Tina, I knew that.
I was just sharing.
This congress will be a DISASTER.
#35. on what? AK: Begich favorite to win, but will be close (made last friday). Minn: Franken slight favorite. GA run-off: no prediction by Nate yet (only by sean, who’s not the guy behind the numbers).
So, I just saw gov palin’s ‘press conference.’ She took 4 (all non-policy) questions before perry called no mas. My lord. We had a wonderful vp candidate right here in la, bobby jindal. But apparantly he is the anti-palin, i.e., he has an expertise in public policy and actually cares about making effective conservative policies work. However, he doesnt have legs that go to the sky and a smile that makes neocons legs tingle.
Jindal turned it down. He knew he wasn’t ready. Palin, on the other hand was confident that she was.
She is still talking. She ain’t done yet.
I know that it ‘leaked’ a couple days ago that jindal turned it down. If that were accurate, why did he waste his time meeting with mccain and his posse a number of times in the spring and summer?
re:43 she’ll never stop talking as long as a camera and mic are there to save it for posterity. If we’re lucky she’ll wink a couple of times.
#42. he knew it would be a losing ticket.
Jindal is a very smart guy. He’s probably looking to build up his resume, then run for prez. why blow his chances with too early a run, or a run with a loser.
exactly. he’ll run in 2016.
#40:
I hope I’m wrong about this. But, I don’t think that Jim Martin can win. I think that Senator Chambliss will be able to turn his voters out.
The key for Martin is the Metro Area. That has to turn out big, or he’s toast.
Our party is at a crossroads, it seems to me. It can turn itself over to its know-nothing wing, headed by winky and her crew, or it can decide that maybe, just maybe, some ideas of conservatism are still relevant. If the former is chosen, look at the probable future, where the republicans give up on minorities, the whites with education, and those under 30. We’ll maintain a firm grasp on the inner south; we’ll control everything from wv all the way to the gulf coast. Now if we can only convince people to massively emigrate to this region in the next 2 years, we’ll win again in 2012.
What a mess we find ourselves in. The frustrating part is that we all saw it coming and yet we did nothing about. The Dem have controlled the most unpopular Congress and yet the GOP got the blame. I don’t know why the RNC did not run a campaign to start informing people about who controlled Congress. Relying on the MSM is suicidal. Time to overturn the McCain-Feingold. I don’t want to see or hear Mac again.
49–but if people “massively immigrate” to the gulf coast, they will change the character in the same way that migration changed Va and NC. The Repub party will need a new slate of ideas before it becomes appealing to the growing cohort of young, educated, and minority voters.
ron=troll
ron
The issue of immigration was badly handled by Bush and the GOP. Instead of pushing for comprehensive reform, they should have focused on securing the borders. After 9/11, it is absolutely criminal that we still don’t know who is coming into our country. Also, the emphasis should have been on the rule of law. As a legal immigrant, I do resent other people getting a pass. You must preserve the rule of law. Finally, this idea that we would win the Latino vote if only we embraced amnesty is nonsense. The overwhelming majority of illegals are people with very little education. The Dems wins their votes because they are promising them lots of “free” goodies. This is no rocket science. The idea that the Latino can be attracted to the GOP through social issues is also nonsense. Latinos voted for Prop 8 and then turned around and voted for the Dems.
50–yes, congress as a whole is unpopular, but the internals of most of those polls show that the right is even more disliked than the left side of the aisle. Overall, the country hates Republicans and this was reflected in the election.
Know nothing wing?
What does that mean. I am for legal immigration here, but not illegal immigration.
You had the Head of the Amnesty Bill running for office this go around, how did that work out?
I am sure that you will cheer Obama when he grants amnesty to illegals, along with d/ls.
You do not reward folks for cutting in line and breaking laws.
Rahm talks Compulsory Civil service:
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/12/audio-the-obligatory-rahm-emanuel-talks-about-compulsory-civil-defense-service-clip/
People thinking Skippy will be like Clinton are fooling themselves.
Hate seems an awful strong word to me.
I think in McCain’s concession speech and in Obama’s victory speech I did not hear much about hate.
well guys compulsary service to the state or to the school has been defacto for years in many private and some public schools.
There are community service requirements at many private schools. I guess at public schools just getting your kids there is service enough.
Bailed-Out Companies Giving Big Holiday Bonuses
CBS 2 New York
57-Skippy?
Tina, I agree that the immigration issue is very difficult. Luckily, there is a strong likelihood that it will dissipate as a political issue once the job losses make emigrating to our country irrational.
The other part of the know nothing movement though is its fear of knowledge and its reduction of emphasis upon education.
52: if I were a troll, I would’ve been writing during the campaign. In january, when it became obvious that the fix was in to give mccain the nomination, I stopped writing here. I think I only wrote a few times to explain the bradley effect, since some people were defining it incorrectly or anticipating its effects in an unlikely fashion. When I started writing again (I think on monday, I said I had waited until most of the trolls were gone, as I thought these were issues the republican party must try to solve or else just become a regional party much like the democrats were from the civil war until 1928.
rdelbov,
Very interesting front page post. I enjoyed reading it.
Cory
don’t encourage me it will only make my posts longer.
I might just say a few more words on Hale Boggs. He represented the district now held by William Jefferson. I guess its a tribute to longevity that Jefferson succeeded Lindy Boggs who was the widow of Hale Boggs (Father and Mother of Kookie Roberts). Boggs was just about the only Southerner to vote for all the landmark civil rights bills.
Somehow he survived several elections and became the #2 man in the house leadership. In 1976 he was certain to be Speaker as Carl Albert had already set his retirement date. Upon his death Tip O’Neil moved up the leadership ladder and he got his years as Speaker either sooner then expected or perhaps he would have retired after 30 years in 1982 and never became speaker. Hale Boggs was actually two years younger then O’Neil.
The good news is that we can now all sit back totally relaxed now and watch Obama with no opposition at all from the congress or the media completely remake this country into a lefty’s wet dream.
How can we be relaxed about something like that you ask? Because there isn’t a damned thing we can do about it – The “one” now will have complete control of all three branches of govt, the media, the bulk of political money – all levers of American power. No point in stressing when you don’t have any means left to fight it. Get some popcorn and watch this leftist disaster just happen and be around to pick up the pieces when the country blows up.
I might add that we all might contribute to the senate race in Georgia, but beyond that it is out of our hands.
Tina and Chekote
Lets talk about the hispanic vote, which of course involves immigration to some degree. I know you live here in California with me Tina so you have a perspective on the direct results of illegal immigration moreso than people, say living in Kansas.
We are losing the hispanic vote and this is pretty much dicta. Were down into the low 30’s heading towards the same monolithic vote totals that we see with African Americans. We can not afford that or we will never win a national election again and go the way of our predecessors the Whigs. So what can we do without sacrificing our conservative principles.
1. We are losing the PR battle with hispanics. We have been allowed to be labelled anti-immigration rather than anti-ILLEGAL immigration. As a resident said above they are against illegal immigration as well since they came here the proper way. There is quite a large segment of the hispanic population that feels the same way, but they have been led to believe that we are against all immigration. This is problem number one that we must solve.
2. Along the same vein as number 1, we are allowing the Liberals in our party to latch the tag “nativist” on to those who are against any form of amnesty in what is the upcoming immigration reform bill. We have to stop those who want to label a majority of the party this way now. We have to come up with a retort and not allow this very negative label to stick
3. Demonstrate to the immigrant community how border security not only helps US citizens but also those trying to cross illegally. Death of illegals crossing is a big issue. Now we are all aware that illegal crossings will subside as the economic downturn worsens because there will be no jobs, but we should also frame the issue as such that the increased border security will also allow us to discover those who are crossing and become ill or close to death. It seems an odd way to get them on our side here, but we have to try to play the humanitarian side of this up.
4. We have to come up with a solution to the illegals that are here that is pragmatic. I am one of the first to ring the no amnesty bell, but, at the expense of destroying the party, no. Border security must be the number one principle in any negotiation on immigration reform, but I think we have to start thinking about maybe allowing those with more than five years here some road to legitimacy ONLY IF, and im emphatic, there are SEVERE concessions on the part of illegal immigrant groups including, ending the policy of giving anchor babies citizenship. Mandatory english immersion classes. No, and absolutely NO, services to remaining illegals including no school for children, no hospital services unless life threatening and no aid whatsoever. In return for these concessions, we should consider giving those here five years, paid taxes, english test passed and a large fine, a path to residency.
5. No guest worker program. We already have one. Reshape the H2-A and B visa program to increase numbers, get rid of the housing provision and temper the prevailing wage clause and we have improved what we already have and dont have to go the route of the Z Visa. Its simple, can be done quickly and is a great program. They get to work here 9 months, go home for three, pay taxes, live here legally during that time for a three year period, and we know what is going on with them, and they dont feel that they are being oppressed. A Total win win for both sides.
6. After the reform draconian penalties are instituted and enforced on both illegals and companies that hire illegals. If we have a system in place that allows guest workers, that handles illegals and gives them a path to residency, there is no need to hire illegals anymore. I think this one is simple.
7. Probably most important, get a conservative (and I mean a real conservative not the Peggy Noonan branch of conservatives…snark) to go to the hispanic community and sell not only it, but the conservative movement. The recent poll said that half of hispanics do not want bigger government. Lets appeal to them via this immigration reform program, via the social morals that we support that they do as well, and I think we can make inroads to get at least back to the mid 40’s which means we win again.
Sell this by sending people that speak spanish, both hispanic conservatives and white conservatives that speak spanish. Send them to talk shows, to news programs, send them to sporting events. Its time to take back this vote and we can, as long as we dont lose the PR campaign as we are now.
I understand that some who are adamant about no amnesty will probably not like this plan, and I understand and empathize. It was not easy for me to acquiesce but sometimes you have to be pragmatic and its better to bring in more hispanics, show them what real conservatism is, because I think youll see we will win a lot more of them than you think. Sometimes we have to give up something to gain something, and in this approach that I outlined above, I think that we have enough safeguards for our way of life, incorporate a way that the immigrant hispanics will become more integrated with our society, and in turn we all win.
Thoughts??????
Here we go again, the socon complaining that the GOP did not talk about social issues enough during the campaign, and that’s why some many of them sat out the election. These people never learn. People are worried about their financial well being and don’t give a crap about what individuals do in the privacy of their bedrooms. Sarah did talk today about “personal freedom” and “personal responsibility”. Maybe she is the one to help the GOP put the social issues in the backburner.
Chekote
I agree with you on that, and im a socon. I think that you do, and speak, about socon issues the way Reagan did, and thats subtly. Let your actions speak a bit louder than your words. People respect that, social conservatives can see it, and others dont feel threatened by it.
Vitric
This issue must be addressed.
Thanks for your views.
I am going to go into deep thinking mode
Victrc, you raise a lot of good issues.
Let your actions speak a bit louder than your words.
Agreed. Sarah made a stronger case for choosing life by taking baby Trig with her on the campaign trail, than Dobson, Perkins have done with all of their grandstanding.
Yeah I agree Victric.
When McCain spoke in the debates about staring in the eyes of Putin and seeing the KGB, it always scared me. It made me worried that maybe he was going to start a war with Russia. He always came off too hawkish. It wasnt what he said (bc I had already agreed with him that Russia is going to be a major threat in the future)it was how he said it.
Rudy
Political messages are very hard to translate into one minute debate answers. To me the Putin response was a learned answer of McCain. He liked the answer so much he just plugged it into a foreign policy answer. Did not work for me either.
Yet even giving the right answer to a crisis type situation can come off as silly. “W” in response to the 911 bombing suggested that we “shop” or act normal and doing that would be the best way to show Ben Ladin we were not beaten down by the attacks.
In theory I agree 100% that going to work and living our lives in a land of freedom and yes shopping was the correct thing to do after 911. Yet that answer does not soar to the level of a Reagan like or FDR like response.
So yes Russia is a threat to the USA just like Iran, but McCain just never found a way to turn those facts to his advantage
#67
Lots of good points. I need to think about it. In the meantime, let me said that I would like to de-link border security from immigration. The former has to do with protecting lives and property. The latter has to do with employment status. Completely different issues.
Chekote
The only reason for linking them is because those in the party who are vehemently opposed to any form of amnesty feel they go hand in hand. If you are going to frame the issue to make this palatable to that faction, it has to be included.
Please remember that I dont speak in absolutes, as im sure there are those who are anti-amnesty who dont think border security should be spoken about in the immigration debate, but there are more that do, hence the inclusion.
Well KGB Putin is probably going to have a train wreck on his hands given the plunge in oil prices.
Those energy producing countries must be crying about the plunge and blaming us.
The point is that people are wary of war. As the Iraq War dragged on, people go tired of Bush repeating over and over again “The Iraqis want freedom”, “freedom”, “freedom”. The Americans are prepared to fight to defend our country; they are not prepared to go around the world and fight for freedom. Although Mac criticized Obama’s response to the Georgia crisis, I think Mac hurt himself more with his response “We are all Georgians”. Most people in the US can’t even find Georgia on a world map. They couldn’t care less about being Georgians.
Advocating the expansion of NATO is another policy that needs to be revisited. It was first established as a response to the Warsaw Pact. The Soviet Union is gone, why do we still have NATO? Let the European Union pay for their own defense and deal with Russia.
#76
If we de-link the two, we stand a better chance to advance the issue. Oh well, it doesn’t matter now. The Dems have the votes to do whatever they want. We will have amnesty and there will be no border security. We will have our chance at border security after the next terrorist attack, should it occur.
#79
because the dems have the vote we have to move quickly to frame the immigration debate in our favor and quickly sell our thoughts to the hispanic community so we dont lose their votes for a generation.
Im not one to pander to a group for votes, but we cant afford a monolithic vote in favor of the dems from this group, and I think, once exposed to our conservative philosophy, they will embrace it, or at least enough will embrace it to make substantial inroads.
Victrc
Let the Dems do what they want, as they will. We have no leveraage. I would suggest that one way for the GOP to distinguish itself from the Dems is to get away from identity politics. We should say that we see Americans, not blacks, latinos, women, asians etc. Accused the Dems of being divisive and contributing to the balkanization of the country. We welcome all people who share our values. This will diffuse the anti-GOP mood in minorities more than any piece of legislation.
With every passing day, it becomes obvious that McCain threw the election to help Race Relations.
The GOP wanted Obama to win, foreseeing the upcoming depression that Obama will cause.
At least that Commie Berkowitz lost to Don Young
#61,
He’s skippy until his true inner Peron surfaces.
Then he’s toast.
R2K GA Senate
Chambliss 49%
Martin 46%
The polls turned after the financial meltdown and Mac never recovered.
This election loss wasn’t due to SOCON positions or anything else.
It was the meltdown.
Go to RCP and look.
This election loss wasn’t due to SOCON positions or anything else.
I am talking about Congress. The GOP was going to lose more seats regardless of whether Mac won. Unless the GOP is able to regain seats in the North East and West, it will stay in the minority. Outside of the South, the GOP is seen as the religious party. Fair or unfair, that’s the preception. People don’t want government to tell them how to live.
Great. So we could lose Georgia too. I hope that poll is crap, but I’m not discounting polls anymore. State polls were pretty good this election year although I didn’t think so at the time.
DOw up today
I have to say that Sarah has excellent political instincts. After the election was over, the MSM started the “blame Sarah” meme. Instead of sitting back and letting take hold, she immediately got in front of the camera. Any camera. By doing so, she has changed the subject and prevented the “Sarah lost the election” storyline from becoming the conventional wisdom. This lady is one smart cookie.
How can I believe that Georgia poll???
Wait a minute I think there was a poll earlier this month with a 3.7 million sample. I think that poll was 49.8 to 46.4
“we cant afford a monolithic vote in favor of the dems from this group”
It will probably never be as monolithic as the AA vote, but the GOP needs to do better among hispanics. Typically, Hispanics go Dem by around 2-1. Bush was the exception by only losing by 10 points. I think part of the reason is immigration, but it’s more than that.
Hispanics aren’t a “community” like blacks are. Every state’s hispanic population is different. However, if you demonize those coming in, which is how a great many of their parents/grandparents came in, then that doesn’t help. Hispanics never had a “line” to queue up in like Ellis Island, and they still don’t, unless you are wealthy or middle class and want to emigrate.
I agree with the poster above who said that identity politics are killing the R’s, and it’s a PR battle more than anything else. You saw a sea of middle-aged, middle-class white people at the Republican convention, while you saw a highly diverse crowd at the Democratic convention, in both age and race.
I cringed every time I heard Palin say “hardworking Americans,” or “patriotic America,” or when I hear republicans talk about the 40% who “don’t pay taxes.” That language HAS to stop. Anyone with a brain knows what those words suggest.
Do you hear Gingrich saying stuff like that? No.
Look to Jindal. He’s the future.
40% who “don’t pay taxes.â€
This is just stating a fact. It has nothing to do with identity politics.
AITX,
Whenever a Dem suggests the GOP to do something, the GOP is probably best served by doing the opposite.
BTW, as others have stated 40% not paying income tax is not identity politics. It’s a fact.
-Polaris
Good article on how they should audit Obama’s campain funds
http://www.denverpost.com/opinion/ci_10967563
“This is just stating a fact.”
Everyone pays taxes, some just don’t make enough so they get money back. They’re deductions are greater than their tax.
Most in that 40% are either younger or minority, because they have lower incomes. McCain lost those groups the worst. In other words, the republicans are saying they don’t represent those people.
That may not be what they’re trying to say, but they need to change the language so as not to be divisive.
So the Dems’ saying the GOP wants to kill [Insert group of Americans here] isn’t divisive, Aaron?
“as others have stated 40% not paying income tax is not identity politics.”
40% doesn’t have to pay in.
Doesn’t everybody that works get a W-2? Doesn’t everybody have to do a tax return? Doesn’t everyone pay sales tax, gas tax, etc? Everyone also pays property tax either directly or indirectly through rent.
It’s insulting to say such a large percentage of the population doesn’t contribute.
“Whenever a Dem suggests the GOP to do something, the GOP is probably best served by doing the opposite.”
There you go with some specious logic. I have a rock to sell you that keeps tigers away.
In other words, the republicans are saying they don’t represent those people.
Pure nonsense. Just stating a fact does not mean you represent or don’t represent a group. The GOP needs to represent principles not groups. If you believe in free enterprise, it doesn’t matter whether you make 15K or 150K. You either believe in free enterprise or not. If you believe in a limited federal government, it really doesn’t matter whether you are straight or gay, black or white. You either believe it or not.
I love this little gem of a poll from SUSA. Apparently, 87% of registered voters in Georgia say that they are going to turn out for the special senate election.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2029674c-ee75-4f00-bd72-ee427f3d53fb
This comes after only 67% turned out for the general election. Proof that people lie to pollsters, even when those pollsters are phone robots.
#99 AITX,
It’s not specious logic. You are a hardshell Dem. You don’t have the GOP’s interests at heart and therefore everything you say here is suspect.
Also, the fact is 40% of the people don’t contribute (at least via income tax). That’s just a fact. Try entering the no-spin zone for once. In fact 40% is a frightening number because once that number hits 50%, there is nothing to stop the electorate from voting itself bread and circuses.
-Polaris
“Just stating a fact does not mean you represent or don’t represent a group.”
By saying that those people don’t contribute, you’re alienating them. In effect, you’re telling them you don’t want them as part of your party.
Look, the main reason McCain lost resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for the next two months. Bush is an incompetent, witless, clueless politician who has neither the political acumen nor the desire apparently to get people to support him whether his policies are right or not. (Not everything he’s done has been wrong. He just hasn’t communicated effectively when it has been.) Bush’s advisors were nearly as incompetent as the President. Karl Rove felt by balkanizing Americans into groups and then pulling just enough of them to the polls to get a 51% majority, he’d have a winning coalition. The flaws of such a strategy are obvious: The Dems rallied their own partisans to nearly the same level as Bush’s achieved and then eagerly seized on Bush’s mistakes as he made them, disillusioning his own supporters as his opponents worked themselves into an explosive frenzy. Riding the tide of Bush’s failures, Obama adopted a much more successful strategy of an a Herbert Hoover-style, all-things-to-all-people campaign straight out of the 1928 playbook and got his supporters to the polls in record numbers, preaching absolute party unity as never before and achieving the biggest gains any President has had in Congress since 1980. What Obama wants to do may ultimately be ineffective, but his campaigning–in marked contrast to Bush’s four years ago–has been superb. This means the GOP had better be ready to follow the Dems’ initiative of puncing on every misstep starting with EFCA and continuing through global warming, lessening defense, and everything else if they ever hope to recover from the hole they began digging for themselves on Nov 2, 2004.
By saying that those people don’t contribute, you’re alienating them. In effect, you’re telling them you don’t want them as part of your party.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX —
The fact is that they don’t contribute to the treasury. Children don’t either. It is a fact. I don’t believe in lying to people. This country needs less Oprah and more reality checks.
#98 It’s insulting to say such a large percentage of the population doesn’t contribute.
It’s true. Check out the IRS stats yourself.
-Polaris
A large percentage of the population doesn’t contribute, Aaron. If more did, then the Dems would have MANY fewer voters.
Polaris
I took your advice and wrote to Hutchinson, Cornyn and my local representative to tell them that the GOP needs to adopt a federalist approach to social issues. In particular, I told them that it is time to drop that ridiculous HLA. So far I have received standard replies.
Personally I like David Weber’s idea. Only those that pay one cent more in taxes than they receive in govt benefits should be permitted to vote. Basically those that pay the taxes should be the only ones permitted to vote on how they should be spent.
-Polaris
#104
Great analysis.
It’s true that 40% don’t income tax. And I think it’s false advertising to call it a “tax credit” when you give those people money.
That’s a welfare program. Now I’m not necassarily opposed to any particular welfare program, but I think we should have truth in advertising.
When you say David Weber, Polaris, are you referring to the science fiction author?
#108 I’d expect nothing else than the boilerplate replies. However, you can be sure that your letter was noted by their staff and ultimately that is the point of the exercise.
-Polaris
Is it that 40%’s fault they have an income that doesn’t require them to pay in federal income tax?
Are you saying that someone who works 40-60 hours a week, but only makes $24K a year is not contributing, because maybe they get $1,500 back on their return?
You’re not helping your case.
Aaron
While saying that if a democrat implies or tells us to do something should do the opposite is a general statement, there is truth at its core.
of course as a dem you would like to see republicans move policy more towards what you consider to be the center, or what you think to be fair and wise. Doing this would make the republican party nothing more than Democrat lite, and I dont think anyone on here who truly considers themselves a conservative republican would want that, i think we would prefer permanent minority status.
So while you may discount what was said, at least understand the premise behind making the statement.
#112 The very same. The author of the Honor Harrington series and many other works.
-Polaris
Thanks, Chekote.
109 – WOW Polaris. You should run on such a platform.
“Are you saying that someone who works 40-60 hours a week, but only makes $24K a year is not contributing, because maybe they get $1,500 back on their return?”
Actually, I think he just said they shouldn’t get a vote!
Wes,
You are wrong!!!
The people that dont participate in politics (young, minority, and poor) are all groups that vote heavily for the democratic party. They gained a +6 registered rate over the republicans bc they have registered some of this group. That is why the republican party must reach out to this group of ‘new voters’- histocially non participants.
Although, I do understand that many conservatives stayed home this election but that is atypical.
Aaron,
What do you mean by contributing? Do they contribute to the treasure? No. Are they contributing members of society? Yes. Look, I don’t believe in group politics. This nonsense that we must represent this or that group should not be part of the GOP approach. I believe in certain principles. If a politician shares my principles, I will support them. I don’t expect a check for doing so or any kind of preference.
“Only those that pay one cent more in taxes than they receive in govt benefits should be permitted to vote.”
So now we should have property qualifications again? Poll taxes? Maybe literacy tests? Maybe we just shouldn’t allow those who disagree with the government to vote.
“by contributing”
I mean that they are paying SOME taxes, just not paying in on their income tax return. I’ve never had to pay in my federal income tax, although when I was in the army I got pretty small returns. It’s kind of insulting to say I “never paid taxes.”
My points was the language is divisive. Maybe it is stating a fact, but it in effect demeans that 40%.
that “40% who don’t pay taxes” includes children. It’s a false argument.
Economist Thomas Sowell has a similar idea, Polaris. Sowell says votes should be analogized to stocks. If you don’t own property (a house, a car, investments, holdings in a bank, et al), then you’re not vested in the government’s stock–ie, votes. Therefore you should have no vote. Ironically up till the time Mr Lincoln decided to run roughshod over the will of the people, planning mammoth tax increases that drove the South to secede, that was largely the way things were done. To keep his party in power after starting the War Between the States though, Mr Lincoln started easing such restrictions (along with exiling opponents of his economic and foreign policy, enabling restrictions on free speech, suspending habeas corpus, instituting the first income tax, and giving the country its first welfare programs). A few decades later in the Progressive Era and later in the New Deal, vesting requirments were further undermined, turning the vote into a bread-and-circuses style affair rather than a legitimate way of redressing grievances. Thanks, Mr Lincoln, for giving us all we have today! I couldn’t be more grateful!
#122 AITX,
Please. You are a historian. How well did bread and circuses work for the Romans.
All I am saying is only those that contribute financially to the system should have a say in how those finances are spent!
Actually if you read the federalist papers the founding fathers (even the anti-slavery ones) would be in full agreement with me and not you.
I take issue with the unchallenged notion that universal sufferage is a good idea. If you’ve spoken with many idiots on the street that don’t contribute either finanacially or socially, I think you’d agree with me also.
-Polaris
Aaron that’s a whole another question as to whether its their fault that they don’t pay taxes and earn 24K.
For instance in your situation you have chosen to go to graduate school, postpone your earning any money(except perhaps grad assistants or what not) and ideally you will earn more money in the future. So fault is not the not work for your situation.
Not wanting to slice and a dice an issue here, but a mom who decides to stay at home and not work then she home schools 3 kids. If she worked the family would earn 50K instead of 30K and they would pay federal taxes. That’s another choice.
Yes there are lots of people who choose not to pay federal taxes for a wide variety of reasons.
If I had to comment and maybe I should not, but I will. Yes only 40% of the income filiers pay federal taxes and that’s a little discouraging. I suspect that somewhere around 1/4 of them have good reasons not to.
For instance if you are 65 and get a 12K pension and SS benefits. You have to file taxes, but you may not have a tax liability. I better stand for our seniors and say thanks for what you have done in the past.
I still take Polaris’s point that more people need to be contributing to paying the tax burden.
If grad students were taxed at a stright 20% rate we might see some more conservative educators
#124 That 40% figure does not include children. 40% of all filers don’t pay federal income tax.
That’s just a fact.
-Polaris
SUSA’s model is assuming 28% of the electorate in the Georgia runoff to be black. What was the Georgia black turnout in the GE?
Maybe we just shouldn’t allow those who disagree with the government to vote.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX
That will be Obama’s policy.
#129 The actual turnout percentage in the GE in GA was 30% which was unusually high. Given that the AA voters voted for Martin 98-2, even a two percent drop would drop Martin’s top line by 2 points as well.
This is why Martin is toast in the runoff.
The rest of the GA demographic EXCEPT the AA vote is incredibily hostile to him. The exact demographic in the GA runoff will tell us a lot about 2010 assuming Obama even permits us elections in 2010. However, there is almost no doubt at all that Martin loses and loses badly. How badly will be key.
-POlaris
Nevermind. I see the black turnout was 30% of the Georgia electorate in the GE.
Martin looks to have a real up hill climb.
I never meant to suggest that children are included in the 40% who don’t pay taxes. I was just saying that there maybe lots of reasons for individuals not to pay taxes and just stating facts it doesn’t mean you are divisive. I mean, if I say that children don’t pay taxes, does that mean I am divisive?
Rudy, when the overwhelming majority of people have a negative view of the President and say they’re voting for something different, I’d say that rather vincidates my case. You can live in Fantasyland and pretend electing an uncharismatic incompetent to the White House had nothing to do with the GOP taking the worst back-to-back losses they’ve suffered since the Great Depression, but any legitimate analysis says otherwise.
The sky is blue. Oh no! I am being divisive! I don’t represent the people who think the sky is black. Yikes!
Looking at the SUSA poll I don’t expect to see Obama in Georgia. Martin won’t win and Obama doesn’t want to lose his aura of invincibility.
Thanks for the fair comment, RD.
“If grad students were taxed at a stright 20% rate we might see some more conservative educators”
This would result in far fewer educators as a whole, and we’d have a elitist education system similar to what was around prior to WWII where mostly only the upper middle classes and wealthy continued their educations. Unless the prices of education were slashed significantly.
You could say the same about doctors, or any profession that requires intensive training.
Polaris is right when he says the founding fathers would agree with him. They distrusted “the rabble” and were the ultimate elitists. Their ideas of who should get the franchise went out the window long ago, however.
I do bemoan ignorance in voting, which is why the PR battle is such a big deal nowadays.
Wes,
Of course I think GWB is at least 75% responsible for the loss. McCain actually overperformed bc not getting spanked by double digits was the true miracle. I was just commenting that if everyone voted that dems would gain significantly more than republicans.
Rudy, Bush had a chance to crack the Dems’ hegemony over the black vote, to pull Latinos into the fold, and to build a coalition that could weather anything the Dems could throw at it. His lazy campaigning in 2004, combined with irresponsible handling of Iraq, Katrina, and just about everything else, together with a balkanizing campaign that made no attempt to make inroads outside territory already friendly to him, hurt Bush and his party badly. Had Bush been a more effective campaigner and Chief Executive, then the Dem rout of the GOP would never have occurred as it did. Unfortunately the GOP made a deal with the Devil when it opened the Pandora’s Box named Bush–and got exactly what was coming to it for that gross oversight.
Then again I was preaching this two years ago, and everyone on here said I was an idiot. I feel a little like Cassandra warning the Trojans about the horse left at the abandoned Greek camp. Well, Cassandra was right, and so was I. Too bad no one listened.
wes and Rudy
could not agree with too more.
Glad someone finally acknowledges I was right, Rdel.
I didn’t support Bush in 2000 because his “Compassionate Conservatism” rubbed me the wrong way. I supported him in 2004 because of 9/11. Bush started rubbing me the wrong way after the 2006 election when he fired Rumsfeld. Why not fire him before the election? Katrina didn’t bother me. I think the responsibility belongs to the mayor and governor. POTUS is not the mayor of NO.
Although I think that 75% of the responsiblity of the loss of this election was bc of GWB, I am still amazed that it was still winable. Had Mac responded correctly to the market crash it would have been a very close election. He probably would have still lost but there would be no landslide.
The republican name has been tarnished and it will probably be awhile before they regain the same strength.
You are correct to an extent, Chek; however, the federal government was obligated under the acts authorizing FEMA’s existence to provide service to Gulf Coast residents affected by Katrina. When Blanco, Nagin, and Brown equivocated about what to do, it was incumbent on Bush to step in and act decisively. This he failed to do. In fact, he lauded Michael Brown for Brown’s failure. This shows the failure of expecting the federal buraucracy to engage in anything, but Bush shares a large portion of the blame by refusing to acknowledge mistakes and take corrective action. It’s eerily similar to the comedy of errors in Iraq, where Bush essentially said, “Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, Everything is fine,” as terrorism in Iraq spiraled upward and the reasoning for Saddam’s overthrow became murkier and murkier while the government seemed paralyzed in its attempt to right what was going on. This is a reflection of Bush since his reelection though. He has no clue and no desire to get one. The results of the tragic error of his election are sadly all too apparent.
There’s a Middle Eastern proverb, Rudy. It says, “Beware what you ask for, for it may come to pass.” In asking for Bushs’s election, the Republicans got exactly that.
Any word on alaska???
Last I heard, Begich was still up 814, but for some reason Republicans are ebullient about Stevens winning. Either they’re being extremely optimistic, or they know something I don’t.
#148 They may know something we don’t. I’d wait and see and not write Stevens off quite yet.
-Polaris
Remember in AK, you are permitted to vote in a region outside your own….and your ballot then has to be justified against your home district. This is done because of the sheer scope of the state. It may well be there are more Stevens vote out there than anyone thinks. We’ll know shortly.
-Polaris
Wes,
“When the Gods wish to punish us they answer our prayers.”- i like this one better
I’m sure the democrats will learn the same lesson. Both parties are so bad and either having too much power is going to be disasterous. The Republicans will take all the blame for the past 8yrs but I really think it was more of a 60-40 fault (ration=republican-demorat). GWB gained too much power in 2000 and now Obama will have too much in 2008. It seems that history just repeats itself.
I see that the RNC is filing suit to get rid of McCain-Feingold. It’s about time. I would like to propose a free-market (sorta) solution. The only people who can give to individual candidates in general elections are the candidates themselves. All other contributions must be given to a political party, and anyone can give however much they want to a party. The only rule is that every day the party must update its figures so that everyone can see that, for example, polaris has given $20 million to the republican party.
AHHH SO!
Check this out.
ALL the tallying done yesterday (well virtually all) was early vote only and that highly favored the Dems.
Here is what is left:
Absentees: 25,620
Early Vote: 169
Of the Absentees, only 2282 are in Region IV which is the most Pro-Bergich Region.
Check the data out yourselves.
-Polaris
Ron,
I dont like that system at all. I would give money to Ron Paul but I would never donate to the republican party. Your system doesnt allow for that to happen.
154 yeah, it does. First of all, it only affects general election contributions, not primaries. Second, if ron paul decided to run as a 3rd party candidate, the same rules would apply to him as to the major candidates.
I will be less hard on Bush than Wes even though I agree with much of what he was saying.
I think that Bush’s greatest failure was not his management, but his lack of use of the bully pulpit. He is the least communicative president we have ever had. Reagan was criticized for being hands off but he had one press conference a month.
For any Republican president, it is important to utilize it since the media is so biased against conservative ideas but Bush has always failed to do so since reelection.
This is the main reason the GOP is in decline. The MSM has been savaging the brand with no ability by the GOP to fire back at all.
Guys,
See the data I linked to in #153. The AK Senate race isn’t over yet. Not by a longshot. Nate Silver was wrong. The vote that’s left does NOT favor Bergich. See the link.
-Polaris
According to a guy I really respect, Michael Barone, the early and absentee votes from Anchorage have yet to be counted. He said this area is much more Republican favored, so with I heard on fox news still 40000 votes to be counted tomorrow and Monday, all Stevens would have to get to overtake the just over 800 vote lead would be 51.2-48.8%. So, I think it is still likely Stevens will win.
Absentee votes = military vote?
Polaris, are you thinking about donating $20 million to the Republican party?
All right, assuming Stevens takes this–and that’s a possibility if what Polaris says is true–then how long will it be before the GOp forces him out of office? I’m guessing not long. Even Robert Novak’s successor has Stevens winning this thing, so if he knows something we’re unaware of, then that’s a good thing for the Republicans.
#160 I donate in other ways. I also am an independant which means as a matter of principle I don’t donate to any political party. I do sometimes donate to individual candidates or specific political causes.
-Polaris
If you are Polaris please just send me $150,000 for law school.
#159 Around the Anchorage area? Very, very likely. Elmendorf AFB and Ft Wainwright are in the Anchorage area.
-Polaris
#163 Go apply for a Govt Bailout!
-Polaris
I agree with Diogenes. President Bush’s biggest fault was his poor communication skills.
But this is not to say that he didn’t know how to communicate. Did anyone not understand him when he said something? No, the problem is because he actually kept his promise of bringing a new tone to Washington, but the Dems decided to keep the old one.
Cheney’s approval rating is at 18%. This is ridiculous. But it reflects badly on Republicans rather than Democrats. It’s a given in today’s society that all the Dems will give Cheney a bad rating. But for half of the Republicans in the country to do so is nuts. One could blame it on Cheney, since he doesn’t even pretend to be interested in defending himself in the press or playing their games. But Cheney demonstrates that if you’re not willing to play the game, even half of the Republicans will believe the press’s accusations against you.
Bush could actually have done everything the exact same way he did, with everything happening the same way, BUT, if he had spun things the way Clinton’s team did, he’d have double his current approval ratings. Clinton’s team fought hard on TV, every single day, and even though it was all BS, it was effective because they were fighters. Bush, on the other hand, thinks baseless charges are beneath the dignity of the Presidency to answer. How well has that worked for him?
#145
What was Bush supposed to do? Get on TV and give out evacuation plans? That’s the job of the governor. In the year before Katrina, Florida had 5 hurricanes. No problem with FEMA then. NYC did just fine handling the 9/11 attacks. No problem with FEMA then. Giuliani and Pataki had no warning about the attacks. While Nagen and Blanco watched Katrina moving towards NO for days. The problem with Bush was 1) taking responsibility. That’s what the Left wanted to hear so that it could run around and scream “It is Bush’s fault, Bush’s fault”. Never give the ammunition to the enemy. He should have just said that the federal government was ready to help just like it helped Florida, NYC but it is up to the local authorities to ACT! 2) Going to NO and announce that “we will rebuild NO again”. This pissed off the rest of the country that thinks that building a city that is below sea level, surrounded by three lakes, with a major river run through it and on the hurricane path is STUPID! Call me heartless, by many people in NO seemed more worried about getting free TVs than to get the hell out of there.
Oil corrupts.
Lots of oil corrupts absolutely.
When corruption walks into the room; Democrats and Republicans are equal opportunity users.
I think since O turned down public funding we have seen the end of any type of control over election spending. He has, as he will in all things over the next four years, set a horrible precedent.
Phil-I will pass on your suggestion until I see someone in the republican party that actually knows what to do with contribution money.
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