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McCain is looking good in Both PA & FL

Well not much since I went to Lasertron for a birthday party today.  No not for me a child of mine.  ARG put out polls for these two states and had Obama ahead in Florida:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/FL08.html

Well this poll had  Democrats +8 (should be even), then the poll had Obama ahead in Indies by 4 (that might be close), but then had Obama winning democrats 85-10 while McCain won the Republicans 89-7.  Well in 2004 Kerry was 85-14 among democrats and I look for obama to crack 20% lose of D’s in Florida.  So McCain is ahead in FL in my opinion

Now as to PA here is the ARG poll

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/PA08.html

ARG has Obama at 51  McCain 46.  So why be happy.  1st Party Ratio is 53D 41R 6I.  Well it should be about 43D-38R-18I or about a +3 D move.  Then  ARG has it +19 among Indies for Obama.   I think there is a real stretch with Puma  and Bradley effects.  Finally  Obama is 83-14 among democrats.   RAS at Obama at 75% and frankly I might split the difference at 78% or 79% when the dust settles.  Kerry did 85-15 without the primary from heck with Clinton plus bradley effect. 

I encourage you to go back and read about the primary between Clinton & Obama in PA.  Plus look at the map of Philly from the 2004 general election and the 2008 Dem. primaries.  The white areas of South Philly and North Philly went heavily for Kerry and Clinton.  Obama will probably be behind the Kerry vote in Philly.  No it will not be the wine and cheese suburbs where Obama loses, but those in Delaware county where those working class catholics and older whites won’t pull the lever for Barack Hussein Obama II

Posted by rdelbov at 8:08 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (215)

215 Responses to “McCain is looking good in Both PA & FL”

  1. Michael Fabiano says:

    CBS POS Poll

    Obama 54
    McCain 41

  2. l8r says:

    And more interestingly, Sarah Palin has decided we’re at war with Iran, based on her interview with FNC:

    “We realize that more and more Americans are starting to see the light there and understand the contrast. And we talk a lot about, OK, we’re confident that we’re going to win on Tuesday, so from there, the first 100 days, how are we going to kick in the plan that will get this economy back on the right track and really shore up the strategies that we need over in Iraq and Iran to win these wars?”

    Sad, just plain sad.

  3. Michael Fabiano says:

    Internals on CBS POS poll:

    D +13 with more indeps. than republicans

  4. jones says:

    Rdelbov.

    Can we ban some of the more hateful trolls. There is some stuff in the last post worthy of flogging.

    Anyone ever heard of a proxy war.

    President Roosevelt declared one in 1929.

  5. rdelbov says:

    I went go thru the posts to see if anyone crossed the line.

  6. jeffp says:

    Good work rdelbov. It is amazing to me how these polls are thrown together. This new CBC poll is absolutely a joke with its party id. How any BHO troll can take solace in these polls demonstrates liberal ignorance.

  7. Sharon says:

    #5..I agree. I think this year, especially the last 48 hours, have seen some horrible posts. I think Dave needs to really start watching these and baning those like what we have seen this day. I realize they do it out of frustration so we can expect to get much more of it between now and Tuesday. However, I think there should be a limit to what is allowed on this site. If they wanted to really just engage in differeing views it would be one thing but they only know how to insult….sad that this is what there party is now known for.

  8. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Rasmussen numbers:

    October 23 51.66 – 44.83% Obama +6.83%
    October 24 51.80 – 44.80% Obama +7.00%
    October 25 52.32 – 44.42% Obama +7.90%
    October 26 52.46 – 44.00% Obama +8.46%
    October 27 50.58 – 45.96% Obama +4.62%
    October 28 50.89 – 46.01% Obama +4.88%
    October 29 50.24 – 47.07% Obama +3.17%
    October 30 50.88 – 46.21% Obama +4.67%
    October 31 50.86 – 46.89% Obama +3.97%
    November 1 51 – 46% Obama +5 ish

    Brandon

    When you’re ready we can add the exact numbers into the table.

    Frank

  9. Michael Fabiano says:

    Does anyone here really think that this country is D+13???? or even D+9

  10. mystery says:

    #4….more Indys than Repubs?….omg…

  11. jeffp says:

    Yes alot of Trolls in the last thread. Thanks.

  12. Frank says:

    Friends,

    It’s time to start the Drudge watch for news on Zogby.

    Remember that a HUGE Obama day rolls off.

    Obama +12
    Obama +4
    McCain +1

    Average 5.0% Obama

    So if McCain is …

    McCain +3 … tie
    McCain +2 … Obama +0.3%
    McCain +1 … Obama +0.7%
    McCain +0 … Obama +1.0%
    Obama +1 … Obama +1.3%
    Obama +2 … Obama +1.7%
    Obama +3 … Obama +2.0%
    Obama +4 … Obama +2.3%
    Obama +5 … Obama +2.7%

    Notice the pattern.

    Please, please, please, under 3% Obama.

    Frank

  13. Frank says:

    What’s the exact party ID exactly so we can frisk the poll?

    Frank

  14. JulStol says:

    I say this half jokingly.

    If Obama wins and the Revolution comes, what say we fight our way to Rush’s Southern Command and use his compound as a fortress?

    Any takers?

  15. Michael Fabiano says:

    Drudge didn’t put Zogby on until 9:45 last night…so maybe a little longer still

  16. AlN says:

    Brandon or Ponz:
    Could you post the RAS internals for SD, OR, and especially PA please?
    Thanks as always!!

  17. JulStol says:

    by the way, Ras is reducing his Dem party ID by 2%

  18. Michael Fabiano says:

    41 D/31 I/28 R

  19. Michael Fabiano says:

    When is Ras doing that?

  20. Diogenes says:

    I fear the msm propaganda machine may be working and depressing voter turnout for McCain. I hope its not so and the silent majority of Americans turnout but I am fearful.

    If Obama wins, than the press will never get the kick in the pants it needs to become honest.

  21. AlN says:

    Folks,
    Just an inside view: I’ve spent the last 6 hours making phone calls for the McCain campaign here in Akron, Ohio. Everyone here is very confident, both for carrying Ohio and winning the election. It’s amazing how well organized their computer database is for the call list! I can’t imagine the Obama Campaign can match us. Also, what a nice bunch of everyday people are here at the HQ, volunteering to make calls. They contrast a LOT with the vulgar Obama supporters we sometimes reach, who curse us out in the vilest of ways! Typical!

    I’ll be back here again tomorrow, making hundreds of more calls — but only AFTER going to see the Sarah Palin rally in Canton, Ohio at 11am tomorrow.

  22. Michael says:

    Diogenes – any real evidence of the press depressing turnout or is it just your fear?

  23. Frank says:

    Rasmussen says:

    “This week, for the first time in any week since mid-September, the partisan identification trends drifted slightly in the Republican direction. However, the electorate is still a bit more Democratic than it was in mid-September and quite a bit more Democratic than it was during Election 2004. When President Bush was re-elected, the number of Republicans and Democrats in the nation were essentially even.

    For polling data released during the final days of Election 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 39.9% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 26.7% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, the partisan weighting targets were 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated.

    In mid-September, the last weighting targets established before the financial crunch became visible on Wall Street, the targets were 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. Since that time, the number of Democrats has increased by 1.2 percentage points and the number of Republicans has declined by 0.2 percentage points for a net swing of 1.4 percentage points.”

    Friends,

    Some fairly simple algebra produces the following party ID for the last week:

    ARE YOU READY FOLKS????

    39.4 – 36.4% D +3

    I swear somebody has been talking D +3 for a very, VERY long time now.

    Frank

  24. Sharon says:

    Frank or Polaris-
    I don’t know if you have addressed this or not since I haven’t been on too much today. Had to watch my Gators take the Georgia puppy dogs to the woodshed.

    Was wondering what your take on Gallup’s absurd assertion is?

  25. dave says:

    yeah Frank, what is the latest party ID nationally. By a reputable source, and I can think for myself on the Project Chaos effect.
    I’d imagine party ID breakdown as registered is about 38 R
    47 D
    12 I
    3 Others
    But I dont know, thats why I’m asking.
    real

  26. Diogenes says:

    Just fear. And Rove said so as much in recent blogging, pointing out how the press calling Florida for Gore so early depressed the turnout by about 500,000 votes for Bush in his opinion.

  27. The Mexican says:

    I haven’t observed an evidence of the press depressing turnout, at least not based on reports. The only way the press depresses turnout is by calling eastern states too early.

  28. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Any thoughts on post # 25?

    Frank

  29. Roscoe Hudd says:

    So if Obama does win on Tuesday, is anyone going to go back over their predictions about how McCain really is ahead, and consider why you might have gotten it wrong while the rest of the world got it right.

    It will sure happen the other way ’round if McCain wins. Just checking to make sure the McCain fans over here have enough integrity to admit they’re wrong if they’re proved so in a few dayas.

  30. mystery says:

    I can’t believe those CBS weights…

  31. knova_red says:

    What is it to you what we think here Roscoe?

  32. rdelbov says:

    Mercy alot of tripe from our trolls on the last thread. The offer of pay from the Obama camp must have picked up a few Acorns off the old Oak tree.

    I guess none of the trolls are from CO as they would be attuned to the situation. CO did a modified Oregon this year. To get a big turnout they went to mail in/absentee ballots plus early voting plus election day voting??

    What a shock that TV ads are reduced when 68% of the people have voted.

  33. Benni says:

    Here the corrected numbers for the new susa poll of CA:
    BHO:55.9%
    JSMC:42.1%

  34. Benni says:

    Frank that is WONDERFUL

    Ras told us

    McCAIN IS WINNING

  35. Michael Fabiano says:

    If you reweight the cBS poll to +3 D, the poll is 48 Obama 47 McCain

  36. Ponz says:

    AIN:

    Ras PA

    Mac 47 (R85, D22, I43)
    Obama 51 (R14, D75, I55)

    Ras SD

    Mac 53 (R87, D15, I46)
    Obama 44 (R12, D84, I45)

    Ras OR

    Mac 42 (R88, D10, I35)
    Obama 54 (R10, D90, I56)

  37. rdelbov says:

    Frank is that party stuff-premium service stuff or free stuff.

    If its free stuff that will be my next post

  38. knova_red says:

    I had meetings the last 3 week days and was out on the water today so I didn’t spend a lot of time reading or posting until last night. I come back and have never seen so many new and negative posters.

  39. The Mexican says:

    #30

    I have no clue what that means? What are you saying man?

  40. JulStol says:

    RDELBOV,

    Free

  41. Frank says:

    Sharon,

    Polaris addressed this issue many a moon ago. Actually many a thread ago.

    Obama had an incredibly huge outlier that is screwing up the average.

    The averages went:

    49 – 47
    49 – 46
    50 – 45 52 – 43 for the day
    51 – 43 53 – 39 for the day
    52 – 42 51 – 44 for the day

    Notice the outlier two days ago.

    These are approximations. Polaris had different daily numbers but they were comparable.

    Monday morning the biggie falls off the track.

    Tomorrow a mini outlier falls off. Any day close to +4 D will produce a significant improvement tomorrow.

    This will be followed by an incredibly significant improvement on Monday.

    You know what the headline will be:
    Late surge by McCain or
    Obama can’t finish

    Frank

  42. Frank says:

    Benni,

    Would you reweigh the Rasmussen poll with a +3 D weight?

    Obama 11/89/45 (R/D/I)
    McCain 88/9/49 (R/D/I)

    Frank

  43. rdelbov says:

    Thanks after we get up to +100 posts or whenever EPH cries out for a thread I will post the RAS stuff

  44. Robbie says:

    I don’t care about a terrible CBS poll. There are still a lot of undecideds and that’s our last best hope.

  45. Benni says:

    Here the resultsfor the new Ras poll of SD:

    BHO:42%
    JSMC:55.7%

  46. Frank says:

    The Mexican said:

    “#30

    I have no clue what that means? What are you saying man?”

    Comment by The Mexican — 11/1/2008 @ 8:37 pm

    The Mexican,

    I was asking for comments about Rasmussen’s party ID that I posted on # 25. I will repeat it below:

    Frank said:

    “Rasmussen says:

    “This week, for the first time in any week since mid-September, the partisan identification trends drifted slightly in the Republican direction. However, the electorate is still a bit more Democratic than it was in mid-September and quite a bit more Democratic than it was during Election 2004. When President Bush was re-elected, the number of Republicans and Democrats in the nation were essentially even.

    For polling data released during the final days of Election 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 39.9% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 26.7% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, the partisan weighting targets were 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated.

    In mid-September, the last weighting targets established before the financial crunch became visible on Wall Street, the targets were 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. Since that time, the number of Democrats has increased by 1.2 percentage points and the number of Republicans has declined by 0.2 percentage points for a net swing of 1.4 percentage points.”

    Friends,

    Some fairly simple algebra produces the following party ID for the last week:

    ARE YOU READY FOLKS????

    39.4 – 36.4% D +3

    I swear somebody has been talking D +3 for a very, VERY long time now.

    That man I was talking about was Polaris.

    Frank

  47. Benni says:

    Here the resultsfor the new Ras poll of OR:

    BHO:51.2%
    JSMC:48.01%

  48. Frank says:

    rdelbov said:

    “Frank is that party stuff-premium service stuff or free stuff.

    If its free stuff that will be my next post”

    Comment by rdelbov — 11/1/2008 @ 8:36 pm

    rdelbov,

    That is free stuff.

    Frank

  49. Howard Dean says:

    Any takers?

    Comment by JulStol —

    I’m there.

  50. Michael says:

    Robbie hopeful? Call the networks…get the word out…ROBBIE IS HOPEFUL!!

  51. Howard Dean says:

    Ras is reducing his Dem party ID by 2%

    Comment by JulStol

    LOL

    RAS is a tool in 08.

  52. Frank says:

    rdelbov,

    I would love a thread with those party ID’s mentioned.

    Then reweigh the old poll with the new ID’s.

    Benni could do it, probably. He is quite good at those things.

    I would mess it up.

    Frank

  53. JulStol says:

    Lehigh County update for those interested (we’re the swingiest of the PA Swing Counties)

    Sign observations:

    Allentown is having about a 1 in 10 dem defection. I saw a few houses that had Hillary signs in the Primary that now have McCain signs. PUMA lives.

    The outskirts have McCain outperforming Bush from 04 winning handily in the RINO areas of Upper and Lower Macungie.

    I’ve done lots of door to door in small town gun clingy emmaus. 60-40 at least for McCain. It went marginally for Kerry in 04.

    Personal anecdote, my mother voted for Gore, Kerry, and will be voting for McCain “more of the same is better than what Obama brings”. My father who voted Gore and Badnarik is now writing in Ron Paul even though he believes Obama to be a Marxist Fascist.

  54. Benni says:

    Yes Frank

    the resultis:

    MCCAIN:48.21%
    OBAMA:49.82%

  55. The Mexican says:

    Frank,
    Ah ok, so this means that the Ras poll will show a tightening? Sorry for the noob questions.

  56. Victrc says:

    Roscoe (I think thats what your name is) thats the difference with Obama supporters (notice I didnt say Dems) and us. The Obama supporters are gloaters and I dont take to name calling lightly. In fact, many in the Hillary campaign (who amazingly enough Im friends with) have a hard time understanding thementality of the Obama people.

    If the Junior Senator from Illinois wins, then I congratulate him, he won, and with that go the trappings of winning. We here will analyze where we went wrong when we looked at the polls, where we went wrong on teh ground, where we went wrong with getting the message across and then move foward to the following:

    1. Working dilligently to ensure that Obama and the Dem Congress do not venture too far left and endanger things we, as conservatives, value. As well, we will work hard to make sure that things like national security stay in the news and therefore in peoples conscious so that we dont become too weak, to the point of not being able to respond to an attack, or potential attack.

    2. Prepare for mid terms in 2010, trying to find candidates that will not only best represent our values, but that will be viable.

    3. Many of us here will try to analyze the potential field for 2012 and align oursevles with them, This could just be support here online, writing blogs for them, working locally for their campaign or taking an active part in a campaign (this is where I will be involved should McCain lose).

    This is not to say that the loss wont sting, and that many of wont be afraid of how Obama would govern, but we wont whine, we will analyze and move forward, hoping that within this loss we can find the keys to why we lost and in doing so, return to our conservative roots, which many here feel best serve the interests of the nation as a whole.

  57. Diamond Jim says:

    Frank,

    In a previous thread, you mentioned two networks were suspending the airing of the Wright ad. Where did you find that information? Thanks.

  58. explosiveliberal says:

    Party ID means nothing if every poll is showing it. Sure if one or two bad polls show an unusual ID ratio. But poll after poll after poll after poll is showing Dems between plus 6 to plus 12. If people are going to vote for Obama they are likely to say they are a registered Dem. They could be registered differently in the county registrar and not even know it. They are just saying Dem because they support Obama. Just look at the 04 final number on RCP. If the polls are even slightly accurate Obama wins by at least 4 points nationally.

  59. Frank says:

    Howard Dean said:

    “RAS is a tool in 08.”

    Comment by Howard Dean — 11/1/2008 @ 8:51 pm

    Howard Dean,

    I disagree.

    I truly think Rasmussen was trying to adjust his weighing methodology to make his numbers better for the republicans.

    There was a surge in August towards the Republicans. IIRC the month itself was fairly close to +3 or +4 Democratic.

    So he changed his methodology to include the most recent week more important than 1/12 (one week out of 12) He wanted the new lower number to be more significant.

    Only problem is that Wall Street craziness messed up the party ID and it became enthusiasm vs. party ID.

    He was stuck with his new methodology and, ethically, had to stay with it.

    He knows the latest week was incredibly good for McCain (+3 D) but he can’t do anything about it, ethically.

    Frank

  60. Does anyone else get the feeling that Ras is making this stuff up as he goes along?

  61. Benni says:

    Goodnight everybody

    :-))

  62. explosiveliberal says:

    Forget Party ID, Forget every other indicator. If you really want to know whether Obama or McCain is going to win focus in on the white vote. If Obama cracks 42 among whites, he wins plain and simple. 40 to 42 among whites would be a close call.

  63. earlyvotingconfusion says:

    nobody’s talked today about the Miami Herald story, which is alarming:

    A huge increase in early voting has given Democrats a decided advantage over Republicans in Florida — a major departure from statewide voting trends four years ago, according to a Miami Herald analysis of early and absentee ballots cast so far this year.

    Through Thursday, Democrats cast 46 percent of the 3.4 million early and absentee votes in Florida, while Republicans cast 38 percent.

    That’s a big shift since 2004, when Democrats were outvoted 44 percent to 41 percent by Republicans in early and absentee ballots, according to a study of Florida voting data.

    The recent Democratic gains have been most pronounced in early voting, where Democrats have outnumbered Republicans by 432,000 out of nearly two million voters.

    I got this from Real Clear Politics. It’s a Miami Herald story.

  64. falcon says:

    Barack Obama has courted white weekly churchgoers as avidly as any Republican-leaning bloc of voters, though it now appears his efforts may fall flat on Election Day.

    The Gallup Poll now shows Obama backed by 28 percent of white voters who attend church at least once a week — a group that makes up a roughly a third of all voters — which would be no improvement from the 29 percent of these voters who, according to exit polls, backed Democrats John Kerry and Al Gore in the previous two presidential election.

  65. Drew says:

    I am going to stand on an intersection tomorrow with my Pressure Cleaning trailer and a sign. Please help me communicate the most effectively…

    Example:
    Please don’t redistribute my ‘LITTLE’ wealth. Vote McCain / Palin.

    Andrew the Power Washer

    Ideas?

  66. JulStol says:

    I have an alternate theory on polling. Maybe it’s not just all the Pollsters suck.

    Two words.

    Operation Chaos. Would Rush Dems lie to pollsters? Heck yes they would.

  67. rdelbov says:

    BM

    I take your point some aspect of RAS’s work is some sort of hide and peck.

    For instance he had the national trend at +6 Democrats this week. Does he just plug that into 2004 numbers for every state or does he fiddle with it for VA or NC?

    Not that easy to know is it?

  68. Frank says:

    explosiveliberal said:

    “Party ID means nothing if every poll is showing it. Sure if one or two bad polls show an unusual ID ratio. But poll after poll after poll after poll is showing Dems between plus 6 to plus 12. If people are going to vote for Obama they are likely to say they are a registered Dem. They could be registered differently in the county registrar and not even know it. They are just saying Dem because they support Obama. Just look at the 04 final number on RCP. If the polls are even slightly accurate Obama wins by at least 4 points nationally.”

    Comment by explosiveliberal — 11/1/2008 @ 8:56 pm

    explosiveliberal,

    I disagree. What is being polled is enthusiasm as well as willingness to answer the phone. Obama supporters are much more willing to say that they support Obama than McCain supporters are willing to say that they support McCain.

    Obama is the “cool” thing to say. It is the “PC” thing to say.

    Many republicans who will vote for McCain are really ticked off at the avalanche of dirty tricks going on. The bashing of Palin, JTP, the reporters on the plane, and others. They don’t want to answer the phone.

    That is why you need to reweigh to a historical party weight. Then your 13 point lead becomes MOE. It becomes closer to 1.5% lead. Well within the MOE.

    Frank

  69. Howard Dean says:

    Miamai Herald is in the tank for Obama.

    That being said, yes more Dems have voted early this year.

    But the GOP will be out in BIG numbers on Tue.

  70. AlN says:

    Omigosh!!
    I don’t know if BENNI has done his overly optimistic reweighting of the RAS Pennsylvania poll — but Wow, even I now have McCain WINNING by 1.9% in PA. It’s happening, folks!!!

    Quite frankly, IF we win PA and hold onto Ohio, then we ONLY need to win ONE of the following: CO, IA, NM, NV, VA. Only one!! If this happens, the McCain campaign will be looked at as geniuses for pushing PA so hard, when no one thought they could do it!

  71. dave says:

    538 Nate is also changing his methods at the last minute. He is now weighing the newest polls more heavily than in the past. I believe he knows his projections are ‘ridiculous’. He wants to come more into line by tues a.m. so as not to be completely discounted in 2010/12.
    After saying this, I want to remind all of yu that I’m still liberal real dave and fully expect Obama to win, but probably with less than the 343 EV projection in the 538 site. Nor with the 60 Senate seats Nate wants.

  72. Frank says:

    Bryan McAffee said:

    “Does anyone else get the feeling that Ras is making this stuff up as he goes along?”

    Comment by Bryan McAffee — 11/1/2008 @ 8:57 pm

    Bryan,

    Please read my post above. # 61.

    Frank

  73. Sy says:

    Republicans are generally less open than Democrats. In other words, Democrats are more likely to talk to pollsters. I bet you, refusal rate is at an all-time high this election cycle.

  74. Victrc says:

    Liberal Dave

    I have to admit, while I disagree with you on many things, mostly policy issue type things, that you do say things that are magnanimous and I will say that if all Obama people were as humble as you, there would not be the same animosity that you see often directed at people with differing opinions here.

    I think you were an HRC person in the Dem primary, am I wrong?

  75. Sean says:

    Are we thinking the problem with Gallup is that they ARE NOT weighting by party, and thus more Dems have been willing to talk to pollsters skewing the polls in that direction?

  76. Frank says:

    Diamond Jim said:

    “Frank,

    In a previous thread, you mentioned two networks were suspending the airing of the Wright ad. Where did you find that information? Thanks.”

    Comment by Diamond Jim — 11/1/2008 @ 8:55 pm

    Jim,

    It was from a letter sent to supporters in PA, I think.

    I printed the letter, or parts of it, in that post.

    Go back a few posts prior to my statement of:

    “is this true?”

    The letter is there.

    Frank

  77. Dewey says:

    What conservative wouldn’t be concerned or even down right afraid about speaking their mind after witnessing what happened to Joe the Plumber?

    I know it scared the hell out of me.

  78. wildcat29 says:

    just because dems are out voting reps
    in florida means nothing. why do people
    assume that all these dems are pulling
    lever for obama. the biggest surprise
    I believe will be the amount of dem defections to mac. they are the most likely to lie about voting for obama
    because of racism charge.

  79. Sy says:

    Sean,

    Yes, it is a well known fact that Gallup does not believe in weighing their polls. That’s why they are notoriously bad on weekends, especially on a Halloween Friday night.

  80. Frank says:

    Polaris,

    I respect your mathematical expertise greatly. The game is not going well for Texas. No matter what happens, though, please come back tonight.

    We need you.

    I need your thoughts on my “Rasmussen +3 D for last week” post.

    Benni reworked the Rasmussen numbers with the new weight of +3 D and he got:

    MCCAIN:48.21%
    OBAMA:49.82%

    Frank

  81. Frank says:

    Sean # 77,

    Yes.

    Frank

  82. Frank says:

    Liberal Dave,

    I agree with Victor.

    Frank

  83. Bobby says:

    WOW. If Dems are outnumbering Reps like that. Obama is in sooo much trouble considering he is down 49-45% in exit polling.

  84. Frank says:

    rdelbov,

    Use the data from posts # 82, and

    Rasmussen says:

    “This week, for the first time in any week since mid-September, the partisan identification trends drifted slightly in the Republican direction. However, the electorate is still a bit more Democratic than it was in mid-September and quite a bit more Democratic than it was during Election 2004. When President Bush was re-elected, the number of Republicans and Democrats in the nation were essentially even.

    For polling data released during the final days of Election 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 39.9% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 26.7% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, the partisan weighting targets were 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated.

    In mid-September, the last weighting targets established before the financial crunch became visible on Wall Street, the targets were 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. Since that time, the number of Democrats has increased by 1.2 percentage points and the number of Republicans has declined by 0.2 percentage points for a net swing of 1.4 percentage points.”

    Friends,

    Some fairly simple algebra produces the following party ID for the last week:

    ARE YOU READY FOLKS????

    39.4 – 36.4% D +3

    I swear somebody has been talking D +3 for a very, VERY long time now.

    That man I was talking about was Polaris.

    Frank

  85. mystery says:

    Has the MD poll on Fla been discussed?

    Latest Sentinel/Mason-Dixon poll: With 48 hours to Tuesday, Florida still too close to call

    http://www.orlandosentinel.com/orl-mason-dixon-poll-110108,0,6159101.story

  86. dave says:

    #76 Victor?
    Thanks for the kind words, the only interaction I have with the Dem party is when they drop by on a daily basis (sometimes twice) and talk me into giving another 25$ LOL
    They wanted me to do phone banks, goto Penna, but the way I see it: as a professional, I can work a couple of hrs. and donate my wage and be much more valuable to the effort than stumbling and mumbling on the phone! Let someone with coherent thaughts and natural eloquence/spontaneity do that- and let me pick up the bill.
    real for serious

  87. Jim says:

    Keep this in mind about party ID estimates: half the states don’t even register voters by party, so it would be useless to ask “what is your party registration?” Instead, polls usually ask “what party do you most identify with?” or something to that effect.

    As a couple of people have pointed out, this can be affected by the level of enthusiasm for the candidates or the voter’s opinion of the parties.

    The McInturff memo that went the rounds a couple of days ago raised the possibility that the rising McCain enthusiasm among Republicans might lead to a closer party ID difference on election day (say 3%) instead of what it probably was the last week or two (say 6-7%). If he’s right, then most polls are underestimating Mac’s vote. If he’s wrong, then the polls have got it pretty much right at a 6-7% Demo advantage nationally. We’ll know soon.

  88. Darrell says:

    The primary reason we have held these polls suspect is the have party weighting advantage they give the dems…but don’t forget other ways they can lean these polls toward Dems. Remember in 2004 we were told that exit polling is SO MUCH more accurate than pre-polling. Then on election day we were told that Kerry was winning in a landslide fashion. States like SC were called “too close to call” (Bush won 58/41). If the exit polling could be this messed up, and it was more ‘accurate’ than pre-polling, why then would we sweat these polls so much when we KNOW that exit polls were manipulated for psy-ops four years ago, AND we know that the current polling is so heavily Dem weighted?

  89. ameister says:

    Just a quick shoutout to the folks at hillbuzz. They are really stepping uo to the plate. I know they want a shot in 2012 but I still think they believe Obama would destroy the country

  90. Bobby says:

    If polling is 6-7% Dem. Obama will win by 3% to 6%. Any big numbers like CBS/NYT/NBC/WSJ show outliers because they are +9-13.

  91. dave says:

    I’m watching Drudge like some kinda person with a compulsive disorder. Maybe I get it, like the flu, every 4 years. I do the same thing with big Snowstorms and the weather sites in the NE. I love this computer. It’s lucky there isn’t a larger port…. YUCK. You know us Libs- mind in the gutter 1/2 the time.
    Stay Real

  92. Frank says:

    Jim,

    Party ID has never, NEVER been +6 or +7 D since 1980. The largest was 1996 at D +5.

    1976 was different. It was a huge party ID differential but, and a big BUT, the race was a 2 point race.

    Frank

  93. Chekote says:

    #88

    Obama at 47% is not good. This means he will get 48% or 49% at the most. Not enough to win.

  94. Rachel says:

    any McCain supporters here worried about the figures coming out of Georgia?

  95. Darrell says:

    97…no

  96. Frank says:

    Rachel,

    Not really. The party ID is still a wee bit skewed.

    Frank

  97. Rachel says:

    just checking – i think there could be a real surprise there

  98. JulStol says:

    I’m not Eph but…new thread?

  99. Big Joe says:

    Rasmussen continues to baffle me. It makes sense that he would reduce the D advantage in party ID. But its still stupid to go back 6 weeks to get this party ID number!

    Give me a break.

    He’s either a complete moron, or he’s a genius.

  100. CK MacLeod says:

    What’s going on with Ras the Pollster is familiar to anyone who ever tried technical trading and did some experiments with moving averages and other “indicators” with a “lookback” factor. This applies both to topline numbrs and to Ras ID weighting.

    For anyone who looks at Raz’s data – even setting aside the validity of applying a poll of adults to determine party weights – it would appear that Democratic party-ID – or the measure by which it exceeds Republican party-ID – is trending downward. Put differently, Dem and Rep party-ID appear to be converging, and approaching “normal” historical levels. If that is indeed taking place, then his poll is almost doomed to be late in catching up.

    No one knows what actual party-ID will be on Tuesday nationwide, but Raz has wedded himself to a methodology that derives its values from questionable and un-timely data. Pegging his results to a derivative (his average of last weeks and months of party-ID data) rather than a single party-ID prediction lends his poll adaptability while preserving a certain rigor, but it carries a clear backward-looking bias. In the meantime it is highly unlikely that Raz or anyone else can produced a valid statistical argument for matching electoral party-ID to average-identified party-ID. In other words, it’s a guesstimate, a kludge.

    Raz’s results will probably end up approximating the actual electorate a heckuva lot more closely than a pseudo-random poll of the sort that some of the big media organizations and traditional pollsters are employing, but if it matches actual turnout that would almost be by chance.

  101. Frank says:

    Big Joe,

    I truly think Rasmussen was trying to adjust his weighing methodology to make his numbers better for the republicans.

    There was a surge in August towards the Republicans. IIRC the month itself was fairly close to +3 or +4 Democratic.

    So he changed his methodology to include the most recent week more important than 1/12 (one week out of 12) He wanted the new lower number to be more significant.

    Only problem is that Wall Street craziness messed up the party ID and it became enthusiasm vs. party ID.

    He was stuck with his new methodology and, ethically, had to stay with it.

    He knows the latest week was incredibly good for McCain (+3 D) but he can’t do anything about it, ethically.

    Frank

  102. Darrell says:

    97…here is my gut feeling about all the key states…% shown is the percentage chance I think that McCain has of winning the state:

    McCain/Obama

    IN 54/45 – 100%
    GA 54/43 – 100%
    NV 51/48 – 80%
    OH 52/47 – 80%
    FL 52/47 – 80%
    MO 53/46 – 90%
    NC 53/46 – 90%
    NM 47/52 – 20%
    CO 49/49 – 50%
    ME CD-2 48/51 – 30%
    IA 49/50 – 40%
    MI 45/54 – 5%
    WI 48/51 – 20%
    PA 50/49 – 50%
    MN 48/51 – 20%
    NH 50/49 – 50%
    VA 52/47 – 70%

  103. dave says:

    Scott Rasmussen on Hannity just said that Zogby had an outlier yesterday. According to someone on this site yesterday, Scott and Zogster talk.
    Scott then compares Obama to Reagan for positive, upbeat msg. This can’t be good.

  104. mpthompson says:

    I fear the msm propaganda machine may be working and depressing voter turnout for McCain.

    There are fears and there is evidence. Any evidence that the MSM is depressing the pro-GOP turnout? I have to think even the most inattentive GOP is getting PO’d ad the MSM rather than discouraged.

    Even if a small percent of GOPers are too discouraged to vote, the MSM pumping up Obama is a double edged sword. It’s going to make lot of younger and other non-traditional voters get their butts to an actual polling station to vote — particularly if the lines are long.

  105. Tim says:

    You’d best worry about Ga., folks. It’s close. Real close.
    Especially, you’d better worry about Cahmbliss. I don’t think he’ll do as well as McCain.

  106. Jim says:

    #95: Frank, what you say about “since 1980” is exactly my point. The public mood today for Republicans is worse than it has been at any time since the 1970s. Bush is more unpopular even than when we got clobbered in 2006; the “right/wrong direction” numbers are the worst in history; and fears about the economy are vastly worse than anytime in the last 2 decades.

    In short, the last time we had these conditions of “bad public mood” was in the 1970s, and back then we had a party ID deficit of anywhere from 15% to 25%. Of course that doesn’t mean we should despair now. Eisenhower, Nixon, & Reagan all won 2 elections each in much worse party ID circumstances than today, & Ford almost won in 76.

    But the bottom line is, I think it is not unreasonable to estimate the current party ID deficit at higher than the 2006 level of +3Dem. It might be down to that level by election day, but personally I would doubt it.

    The GOOD news in all this gloom is…in my next comment.

  107. Tim says:

    make that Chambliss

  108. Jeff G. says:

    I just saw Chris Rock speaking at a campaign rally for The One. How can McCain possibly overcome this endorsement?

  109. Diogenes says:

    This year has had so many new variables, that I am not surprised that the polls have seen such great volatility.

    Bush versus Kerry was basically a rematch of Bush versus Gore, which was why the polls seemed to be so much more accurate that year; history was a good guide.

    This year, with varying levels of enthusiasm and candidates that appeal differently to so many different demographics, sampling problems seem through the roof.

    I do like Ramussen’s internals though and they seem to vibe with Zogby’s internals. McCain seems to be making up ground with independents and regaining ground he lost with his supporters from early September.

    If McCain is leading independents, he would be in good shape to win this election come November 4th.

  110. sharp says:

    A new poll out of MONTH had Mac up 3. I saw it on Hot Air.
    Will try to dig it back up.

  111. Big Joe says:

    Frank,

    Thanks .. you’re right that RAS is now stuck with his flawed methodology. He’s now calling the race as D+5. This from one of the most accurate pollsters of 2004.

    However, his 6-week lookback was obviously flawed. It should have been 2 weeks at most. And surveying “adults” is not accurate, any amateur can tell him that.

    Nov 4 is around the corner – he’s really backed himself into a corner, let’s see how he does. His does have a good track record so I’m not gonna write him off.

  112. Jim says:

    The good news is that, with the public mood as bad as it is & the Republican brand as unpopular as it is, Obama should be winning by 15-20%. The fact that the race is even close is stunning evidence of his weakness as a candidate.

    Even though most people would kill to get the Republicans out (which is why we are going to lose at least 6 Senate & 20+ House seats), Obama still hasn’t been able to “make the sale.” That’s why the Wright ad blitz & McCain’s own “radical/risky” ads do have the potential to change the race at this late date.

    If the undecideds do move heavily to McCain as I think they will, the race will at least be close & there is the possibility (slight, but definitely there) that McCain can actually win. And man would I laugh all day long at my liberal colleagues who are having their “victory party” Tues. night.

  113. Rachel says:

    Tim – I totally agree with you – the AA vote is off the charts – it has been at an unbelieveable sustaining 35% – I wonder if Obama will take the state?

  114. Chekote says:

    Why would the American people vote for Obama? This man is inexperienced. Has everyone forgotten about terrorism? I just don’t get it.

  115. Big Joe says:

    Tim,

    HUGE turnout here in Atlanta. I waited 4.5 hours in line. Lots of enthusiasm .. but this is ATL. I’m not sure the turnout will be big enough to flip the state though.

    The 2004 race was quite boring here .. the fact that we’re even talking about GA is exciting.

  116. Frank says:

    Jim (# 109),

    I respectfully disagree. Bush’s approval has been manipulated beautifully by the democrats in Congress and nationally.

    As soon as he won in 2004, the story was the deaths in Iraq. Constant referencing to Iraq.

    The war was going badly so Bush’s approval went bad.

    We had a terrible year in 2006 due to two reasons.

    One was a relatively poor turnout by republicans. They were dispirited and discouraged by the excess spending and the excessive deaths in Iraq. They were not enthusiastic.

    The second reason is that it was an off year (presidential-wise). This lowered turnout.

    … but it was still D +3.

    Even in 1976, the party ID didn’t have D’s above 40%. It was republicans who were afraid to acknowledge that they were republicans. But they did show up to vote.

    Frank

  117. Polaris says:

    Everyone,

    Still watching the Texas game. Remember folks football is played for 60 minutes, not thirty minutes. Tech has been playing inspired footballand Texas has been flat…but that changed a bit very late in the half. Let’s see if Tech can play inspired football for 60 minutes. I am guessing they don’t. Tech needed to put Texas away in the first half and didn’t do it.

    Now about important stuff….yes…I agree with Frank. Ras is picking up a late movement towards historic party ID identification, i.e. D+3. However, Rasmussen has tied his hands with his own methedology.

    Also given the partisan break in the early Florida vote, and given what I’ve been told is the exit polling data, Obama loses florida big time.

    More later. Haven’t seen a drudge story and that’s starting to worry me w/r/t Zogby.

    -Polaris

  118. Chekote says:

    Frank

    You forgot the immigration battle. That’s what turned off a lot of Republicans about Bush.

  119. sharp says:

    McCain Up 3 in Missouri. As Missouri goes, so goes the country.

  120. Rachel says:

    Big Joe – thats what I’m saying – i read an article talking about the magic number of 30 – if the AA community is 30% of all voters and 30% of whites vote for Obama, then he can take the state – the AA thus far is 35% – and the way that Bush has wrecked the economy, 30% of whites voting Democrat this time probably isnt so far fetched

  121. Rachel says:

    Hey! This is the real Rachel. I just logged on and see someone else is posting under my name. I haven’t been on since a couple of posts I made earlier today.

  122. Frank says:

    sharp said:

    “A new poll out of MONTH had Mac up 3. I saw it on Hot Air.
    Will try to dig it back up.”

    Comment by sharp — 11/1/2008 @ 9:49 pm

    Please elaborate.

    State or national?

    what state, if not national?

    Frank

  123. Rachel says:

    (post #123 wasn’t mine, either)

    My first post was #124.

  124. steven says:

    im starting to dislike rasmussen he looks like a frog

  125. MalibuJim says:

    Let me first say that I am a John McCain supporter, probably the only one here in Malibu (I’m exaggerating but barely). I want to see McCain win but I’m not quite as optimistic as a lot of people on this board.

    So for me to think John McCain will win, or at least have a chance to win, here’s what I must accept.
    1) That the polls showing Obama ahead by 10-12% are completely bogus (I’ll buy this one)

    2) That the other polls which show Obama having a smaller lead (around a 4% lead is about the smallest) have oversampled democrats so the real result is much smaller.

    3) That the undecided voters are going to break overwhelingly for McCain.

    4) That there will be a Bradley/PUMA effect moving even more who are assumed Obama voters into McCain’s column.

    These seem like quite a few assumptions that all have to be right. I had some hope and most of it relied on the polls tightening by now (1 point lead, McCain ahead in one – something?) and it just hasn’t happened. I was encouraged when Zogby had a day yesterday that showed McCain up by 1, but it is only one day of a 3 day tracking poll. If another McCain +1 day follows that up, I may feel differently. But if the next day is Obama +3 or +4 and the 3 day number drops to +3, that is certainly an improvement but doesn’t seem like enough to win the election. I’ve already heard lowered expectations for Republican polling on Halloween. There seems to be all kinds of reasons for McCain being down in the polls other than he actually down.

    Please explain to me why I should be optimistic.

    MalibuJim

  126. Jeff G. says:

    If Obama does win, his biggest, most glaring weakness is that he has promised so much. The voters in the soft, squishy center of the electorate will be the first to turn on him when he reneges on promises that were unrealistic to begin with or don’t immediately solve all economic woes. I’m not ruling out a McCain victory on Tuesday, but I am ruling out an Obama second term. He’s promised so much that he will not deliver on. Independents will turn on him big in 2010 and 2012 unless he can engineer the miracles he has promised.

  127. MikeKS says:

    Well, if freaking ARG has it at 6 points in PA, you know it’s tight, particularly with a d+8 weight. Sounds like we might pull it out there. Does anyone actually believe obama is up 10 or 11 if it’s low single digits in PA?

    There is actually a good possibility we have 286 again — losing CO, IA, and NM but adding in PA.

  128. Big Joe says:

    Rachel, do you happen to have a link to that article?

    AA’s are enthused, no doubt. However, I think most of them have already voted. So we should see heavy republican turnout on election day. That’s just my gut, it seems to be a common theme though.

    There’s another state-specific fact favoring McCain. Over the last 3 weeks, gas prices have gone down from 4.20 to 2.20. They were at 4.20 due to the hurricanes and there were shortages.

  129. Rachel-s says:

    hey Rachel – im Rachel to, so I’ll put an sby my name so people wont think Im you – i didnt realize there was more than one Rachel

  130. Frank says:

    Friends,

    ABC just said that the latest poll out of PA was +8 for Obama. What poll is that? I have never heard of the “latest” poll being anything but Rasmussen.

    Could they be talking ARG?

    Frank

  131. nick says:

    You know your candidate is in BAD shape when you’re banking people making their decision based on a candidates name and skin color.

    REAL BAD SHAPE.

  132. Rachel says:

    THE REAL RACHEL doesn’t think Obama has a chance in GA.

    Anyway someone could check which troll has been pretending to be me?

  133. Mike says:

    MalibuJim = Troll

  134. Rachel-s says:

    Big Joe – I wonder that too – so far, about 80% of the AAs have voted when compared to 2004 – it remains to be seen what the AA turnout is on Tuesday, but I have a feeling about a huge AA turnout

  135. MikeKS says:

    ARG is +6. ABC is lying. There are three polls out of PA that are public, all between 4 and 6. ABC wants to dumb down McCain’s support.

  136. Mike says:

    Rachel-s = Troll

  137. Michael says:

    “Tim – I totally agree with you – the AA vote is off the charts – it has been at an unbelieveable sustaining 35% – I wonder if Obama will take the state?”

    Rachel oh we are just shocked, shocked that you agree with Tim. Morons.

  138. Rachel says:

    #135 typo — should be “any way”

  139. Rachel-s says:

    #134 – Gingrich even admitted that the AA community is just showing their pride by supporting someone from their ethnic group, he also used Greeks as an example with Dukakis and Armenians supporting Dukemejian

  140. Big Joe says:

    Morning Call has O+8 in PA. I don’t know anything about Morning Call.

  141. Bush beat Kerry 57% to 41 % in 2004, that is a near 20% difference. Even if every single AA in GA voted, and they all voted for Obama, that is not enough to make up that kind of difference. AA are just over-representing in the early voting, please knock off the silliness, if McCain is loosing in GA he would be getting trounced in NC.

  142. Frank says:

    Rachel said:

    “Big Joe – thats what I’m saying – i read an article talking about the magic number of 30 – if the AA community is 30% of all voters and 30% of whites vote for Obama, then he can take the state – the AA thus far is 35% – and the way that Bush has wrecked the economy, 30% of whites voting Democrat this time probably isnt so far fetched”

    Comment by Rachel — 11/1/2008 @ 9:58 pm

    Rachel,

    Look at the early vote totals and that 35% number is close to 80 – 85% of the AA vote. The other 65%, which is not AA, composes much lower percent of non-AA voters.

    The AA vote has basically played out and they are only at 35%. On Tuesday the percentage will go down consistently to reach historic numbers.

    Frank

  143. Rachel-s says:

    Mike, why do you call me a troll? what reason, im just curious

  144. G_Money says:

    Great site and love the commentary – shame that even here you have trolls (Rachel and Tim), but I guess that is to be expected

  145. Big Joe says:

    Rachel-s,

    It’s intriguing but I think GA stays red this time round. If Obama pulls off GA, that means he’s already won NC and VA.

  146. Frank says:

    Big Joe,

    That number is significant. It was +12 a day or two ago.

    Significant movement towards McCain, even in an overweighed poll.

    Good news.

    Frank

  147. Rachel says:

    Frank, that Rachel you were responding to wasn’t me.

  148. Frank says:

    G-Money,

    You should have seen it this afternoon.

    Frank

  149. Rachel-s says:

    Frank – so you think the AA vote will be very low on Tuesday? …..I dont know or have the facts, Im just wondering

  150. mpthompson says:

    Hmmm. Lot’s of “concern trolls” out tonight.

  151. Rachel-s says:

    Right, Frank that Rachel was me, Rachel-s, – what should I change my name to in order not to be confused with Rachel?

  152. I wonder about this identity politics stuff. In the primaries I was a supporter of Mitt Romeny, but I admit part of the attract there is that I am LDS (Mormon) as he is. So, I was having a heart to heart with myself a few weeks ago and I wondered if I would vote for a Mormon just because he is a Mormon or is there more to it then that? My wife then asked me if I would vote for Harry Reid if he ran for president (he is Mormon too) and I realized that I most certainly would not vote for a Mormon just because he is Mormon, particularly since Reid’s politics are so far to the left now.

    So, I do wonder about the AA vote and how monolithic it will be this year. I know the AA vote goes for Dems pretty strongly any way, but is 95-99% a realistic number? At least we know Thomas Sowell isn’t voting for Obama, so there is one.

  153. Big Joe says:

    Frank,

    Agreed – PA is definitely tightening. But is it winnable for McCain? I’m not so sure .. maybe if the election was still two weeks away. The clock is definitely Obama’s friend.

    PA has appeared to be fool’s gold the last two cycles. However, it is ripe for flipping in my view, but the McCain “surge” may have started too late.

    We’ll see in a few days.

  154. Frank says:

    Rachel (the real one),

    My apologies.

    Frank

  155. Rachel says:

    #153 – Yeah, you’ve got to really love the “concern trolls” that pretend to be other posters. Bet s/he was hoping I wouldn’t come on tonight, so s/he could play the game all night.

    Obama doesn’t have the slightest chance in GA!!!

  156. mpthompson says:

    Please explain to me why I should be optimistic.

    You should be optimistic for the same reason they guys bobbing in their boats on the way to Omaha beach were optimistic in the summer of ’44. The path to victory wasn’t obvious or certain, but those Americans got the job done.

    Besides, being an Eeyore is no way to go through life.

  157. Rachel-s says:

    #153 – Im not concerned, Im just intrigued by what Im seeing from GA – thats all, nothing else – Im not even sure that Obama will win GA but it looks interesting

  158. Frank says:

    Frank – so you think the AA vote will be very low on Tuesday? …..I dont know or have the facts, Im just wondering

    Comment by Rachel-s — 11/1/2008 @ 10:09 pm

    A vast majority of them have already voted, so they will not be in a large numbers as in the past.

    Frank

  159. G_Money says:

    Frank – it’s actually amazing how many troll types have surfaced on other sites – numerous concern trolls. I thought this site might be better, but I have to say I can deal with the trolls because when you separate out their chaff, there is some serious wheat here….thanks

  160. Frank says:

    as large numbers.

    my bad

  161. Rachel-s says:

    #161 Frank – then that means Obama will not get far there –

  162. Mike says:

    Because you are here with your stupid KOmmie KOs talking points.

    Polaris and others have already analyzed GA and NC early voting, so keep your stupid comments to your little brain

  163. Justin says:

    The last few days have been like a roller coaster. Yesterday and last night I was feeling, for the first time in weeks, that we had a real shot. I think it was part zogby, part gut feeling. Today, I am pessimistic again.

    I voted on Wednesday and called voters in Ohio for McCain today trying to keep myself busy and thoughts off the real possibility of Obama winning. I am trying to stay positive, but it is difficult.

  164. G_Money says:

    LMAO – looks like another concern troll just surfaced – Justin. How much does Soros/Obama pay you per hour?….or do you get paid per post? Just curious

  165. Rachel-s says:

    #165 – i might suggesting reworking the GA vote – but thats just my suggestion – who knows

  166. mpthompson says:

    Justin, we have all been there during this election. I would suggest taking a break and reading a good book or watching a comedy movie for a while. Taking your mind off things for a few hours will do wonders on your perspective.

  167. Big Joe says:

    To revisit the idea that MSM will be able to depress GOP turnout ..I don’t buy that for one second.

    GOP turns out very reliably. Its actually the DEM turnout that will be hurt if MSM keeps up this narrative that the race is a blowout. Just my thought.

  168. Frank says:

    Justin,

    Keep the faith. Remember, any poll without a proper party ID is totally irrelevant as published.

    It may be relevant when it is reweighed.

    Remember, even Rasmussen is seeing a D +3 now.

    Frank

  169. Sean says:

    When does Drudge usually release his teasers?

  170. Big Joe says:

    To continue 170 .. it sounds odd, but it actually helps MAC when these ridiculous O+10 polls are released.

  171. Big Joe says:

    Sean,

    Drudge only releases teasers if there is good news for conservatives 🙂

  172. Polaris says:

    It’s AMAZING how many trolls with the typical “false flag” GOP pessimistic points have arrived. That means that Mac is actually doing very well.

    Gotta get back to the game…I did warn you that Tech needed to knock Texas out and failed to do it….

    -Polaris

  173. LGF has a PDF copy of the Bill Ayers book, complete with the dedication to Sirhan Sirhan in it. I wonder how Ted and Caroline feel about supporting a guy who is friends with, and certainly agrees with a man who dedicates his book to the killer of Bobby?

  174. Frank says:

    Big Joe (# 170)

    Agreed.

    Frank

  175. Dewey says:

    Lefty trolls are squatting on every conservative site these days. I’d never even consider going to a lefty blog (outside of Micky Kauss).

    They are vermin.

  176. Frank says:

    It’s still two scores, though.

    Oh, BTW, I am rooting for TT only because I want Penn State in the BCS final.

    Frank

  177. Judy T. says:

    Now exactly what is Barak barry Obama Soereto’s legal name anyway?

  178. G_Money says:

    Just an FYI – I live in the area that rdelbov talks about in the PA post. He is completely correct – Obama WILL underperform (vs. Kerry) in Northeast Philly, South Philly and Delaware county. One other little tidbit of info – look at the 1999 and 2003 mayoral elections. John Street (D) won by 1500 votes (out of 500,000 cast) in 1999 over Sam Katz (R) in a city where registered Dems outnumber Reps 10-1. Katz would have won in 2003 if he had not been falsely accused of wiretapping Streets City Hall office (BTW Axelrod ran Streets re-election campaign in 2003…notice anything similar?). The point is Obama will underperform in Philly on Tuesday and the final nail in his PA coffin will come from the NE and SW (think Murtha) parts of the state

  179. MalibuJim says:

    #136 I’m a troll???????

    Maybe I just don’t know what the definition of a troll is. If you think I am someone who is just lurking here to spoil everyone’s fun the you are incorrect.

    I’m actually hoping someone will give me some good news and tell me why I may be wrong. I hope someone is able to.

  180. Mike says:

    Yesterday and last night I was feeling, for the first time in weeks, that we had a real shot. I think it was part Gallup, part gut feeling. Today, I am pessimistic again.

    I voted on Wednesday and called voters in Ohio for Obama today trying to keep myself busy and thoughts off the real possibility of McCain winning. I am trying to stay positive, but it is difficult.

  181. Justin says:

    Thanks for the uplifting guys. This is really just frustrating. I have been thinking for weeks now that as we closed in on the election the American people would “wake up” to Obama and how radical he is. I know people are frustrated with the way things are going, but I thought people would come to their senses on Obama.

  182. Frank says:

    Drat.

    No Drudgereport report. This can only mean a D +5 Halloween poll is coming on.

    That will make the average +2.7%

    Let’s hope that it’s better. Any worse and I will be depressed (slightly)

    Frank

  183. Which conference is better top to bottom, SEC or Big 12?

  184. Rachel says:

    I think it’s going to be nearly impossible for the Republicans to have had a decent night last night.

    Parents with kids are more likely to vote Republican, and they were the ones out trick-or-treating last night.

  185. Mike says:

    182

    No what do you want us to do? give you some warm milk, and tell you that everything will be okay. Grow a pair

  186. Frank says:

    Bryan,

    NFC East

    JK

    Frank

  187. Justin says:

    Polaris, please do not call me a troll. I have been posting on here since 2003, so I sure would have to be a devoted troll to play a conservative for five years just to wait for the weekend before the 2008 election.

    There are trolls on this site, but not all of us with doubts about McCain pulling this out are trolls. It is nice to have a place like this to go to to vent since I am in law school and most of my friends here think Obama is the second coming.

  188. Big Joe says:

    Zogby weights his polls – so an undersamnple of republicans should not affect his topline.

  189. MikeKS says:

    185 — Zogby’s polling would be from today, not halloween.

  190. G_Money says:

    #166 and #183 – cut and paste concern troll (2 different names)

  191. Frank says:

    New Thread

    with my “stuff”

    Yeah

  192. Polaris says:

    I wasn’t calling anyone in particular a troll. However, justin, since you feel you have to defend yourself, I now consider you a likely candidate.

    -Polaris

  193. Dix Handley says:

    Justin you’re having doubts and you called me a troll…I think most of you are over sensitized about the polls. For the record I intend to vote straight R…you folks are troll obsessed that anyone that has doubts is automatically a troll…lol

  194. Justin says:

    Seriously? Part of the reason I enjoy comine here is to read what you have to post Polaris. Jesus Christ.

  195. Justin says:

    I called you a troll dix? I don’t remember doing so, unless you are also kb…then I might have. 🙂

  196. sharp says:

    Missouri poll can’t post but was on a blog called Gateway Pundit…

    Go to Hot Air blog
    Click on the Gallup story comments
    Click on page 3 of comments
    About 10 comments down

  197. Drew says:

    Tomorrow. I have a Pressure cleaning trailer and live in W.P.B Florida.

    Sign that reads…
    Please don’t take the little wealth I have.

    Drew “The Power Washer”

    Vote McCain / Palin

    We have to do what we can.

    McCain has to win.

    Drew

  198. Justin says:

    The poll it is refering to is the Politico poll form the 29th. Still, good news though.

  199. Dix Handley says:

    199-one of the last threads you did. For the record I hope and pray for a McCain win. But the posters in here are so over sensitive if you have legitimate questions. You’re tagged as a troll if you show just a bit of doubt. Some of us are looking for reassurance possibly in error but we’re just as scared of an Obama presidency as anyone else. I just found this site and love the enthusiasm and positivity.

  200. beebee says:

    i usually just read and don’t comment here but did anyone else notice that “mike” and “justin” posted the exact same comment? I guess we know what the line is

  201. Justin says:

    yeah, beebee Mike is apparently quoting me trying to make me appear to be a troll.

    Ask Dave, I have been on this site for 5 years and never, until now, been called a troll.

  202. Drew says:

    Civilian National Security Force vs. The Minutemen….coming soon

  203. Cyrano says:

    How many believe that the McCain SNL appearance cancels out the effect of the Obamercial?

  204. Drew says:

    I believe that the Schwarzenegger comments cancel out all that rhetoric and are getting more airtime than his infomercial….

  205. Drew says:

    “McCain has been in a POW camp longer than Senator Obama has been in the Senate”

    LMAO!!!

  206. Justin says:

    Arnold was awesome in Ohio! I was losing faith in Arnold as he has been wandering much too far to the left, but that appearance was excellent!

  207. mpthompson says:

    Justin, there are those of us in California that wish Arnold and his Dim wife would just stay in Ohio.

  208. cheesehead says:

    #155, Bryan: Good, thoughtful post.

    I actually think the situation is more historical than racial (or “identity group politics”). AA’s have voted Dem pretty monolithically for a pretty long time. Maybe there’s more enthusiasm this year, which is understandable. But that’s at the margins.

    Similarly, with Hispanic Americans, it’s 2:1 or 60:40 for Dems. Again, more historical than racial.

    I think there is laziness on both sides: AA’s and HA’s refusing to demand enough from the Dem party in exchange for their longstanding loyalty; Rep’s not doing enough outreach to earn AA and HA votes.

    But keep in mind that things can change. Reagan got conservative southern and blue-collar northern Dems to switch allegiance, when they saw their party drift from JFK principles in the ’70s.

  209. bonncaruso says:

    Current poll average, OH:

    7 polls, rolling, no repeaters:

    Obama +6.14 (including the mason-dixon for McCain)

    Current poll average, FL:

    7 polls, rolling, no repeaters:

    Obama +2.14

    Current poll average, PA:

    7 polls, rolling, no repeaters:

    Obama +6.43

    Those are the numbers.

    The entire TRIFECTA is advantage: Obama.

    Doesn’t mean he will win all three, but the statistical probability of him winning at least 2 of 3 is extremely high. And whoever wins 2 of 3 from the trifecta wins the GE. It’s that simple.

    This is the same thinking the Bush camp had in 2000 and 2004.