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PHILLIES WIN WORLD SERIES-

well not exactly, but certainly Tampa bay is up against the wall with very long odds against them.

So lets ponder a political race that might be just too close to call right now and that’s the McCain Obama II face off.  Today several of the tracking polls have narrowed yet once again  and are within the MOE.

GWU /Battleground   49 Obama  46 McCain

Reuters   49 Obama  45  McCain

Frankly I like McCain’s chances a lot better then the Rays. 

Posted by rdelbov at 10:31 am
Filed under: General | Comments (336)

336 Responses to “PHILLIES WIN WORLD SERIES-”

  1. Randy R says:

    If you guys haven’t been reading the Hillbuzz blog then you should. It’s run by PUMAs who were involved in Hillary’s campaign but are now supporting McCain.

    They have word from one of their friends from the Hillary campaign who is now working for Democrats for McCain in Pennsylvania and she is convinced that not only will McCain win PA, but it probably won’t be close. According to her, many Democrats in PA who voted for Hillary in the primary absolutely will not vote for Obama and many union workers are lying about voting for Obama because of pressure from union bosses.

    Here’s the link: http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/28/breaking-heres-what-we-know-about-pennsylvania-right-now/

  2. Originalist says:

    If TB comes back to win this series, then bet the farm on Johnny Mac. There is something in the air.

  3. Robbie says:

    A new Pew poll shows the most merciful Lord Obama leading 53-38 and says McCain’s support is in a downward spiral. It goes on to say that Obama leads by 19 among those who have already voted.

  4. Tony says:

    TIPP on Fox says he will release Obama +4 today.

  5. RyanH says:

    PEW should pack it in. They are so clearly wrong it is not even worth digging into.

  6. Marcus says:

    #5 that’s not good news…it was +3 yesterday, right?

  7. Polaris says:

    #5 Not a suprise. A big Mac day is rolling off. This is MoE movement in TIPP. I’ll want to see the internals of course.

    -Polaris

  8. Brandon says:

    RAS Exact Total:
    Obama 50.89%(+0.31)
    McCain 46.01%(+0.05)

  9. RyanH says:

    Good news in Ras…Very little actual movement toward Obama. Like to see McCain over 46, is that getting near his high??

  10. Polaris says:

    #9 That’s MoE movement so effectively no change in Ras.

    -Polaris

  11. Howard Dean says:

    Robbie, Only a tool would post that.

    I bet you believe it.

  12. Robbie says:

    Some of the postive spin for McCain right now reminds me of the John Hynes piece at Ankle Biting Pundits the Sunday before the 2006 election. In it, he said the latest batch of Republican polling showed Republicans gaining and likely to hold onto both the House and Senate. Two days later, Republicans were wiped out.

    I’m going to put the Hillbuzz site in the dubious column. I just don’t believe what they are saying will pan out. I don’t doubt they talking to committed Democrats who are going to vote for McCain, but how representative are they? We tend to speak only to those who share our own views. I remember plenty of talk from conservatives saying they would never support McCain back in February.

    I’ll file the information in the back of my mind and hope it comes to the front of my mind on election night. If some one has the time, I would like to see how the primary polls in Ohio and Pennsylvania panned out on election night.

  13. Robbie says:

    Howard Dean

    I just posted what they wrote. I don’t believe the race is 13 points. Settle down, big fella. How’s that McCain 40 state sweep looking right now? 🙂

  14. RyanH says:

    Robbie-There is some evidence that Republicans gained enough in the last week to avoid a complete debacle in the house (Geraghty suggests the movement was 5% and saved about 15 seats). The Senate was lost because of Webb, Tester and McCaskill’s small victories.

  15. Tina says:

    Policy 2.111 should apply to Politco.com and some here that eat there crap up.

  16. Tony says:

    TIPPS most interesting comment wasn’t about actual numbers. He thinks there will be a convergence with all polling companies. He didn’t actually say toward him, but there was the clear message to other pollsters: Adopt my weightings or become toast.

  17. Polaris says:

    Market dropping like a stone, now down to +40 and falling.

    Stupid traders…..yes the consumer cofidence number is bad but fundamentally it’s not that terrible! The news just doesn’t justify this sort of sell off in an oversold market!

    -Polaris

  18. Tina says:

    All we need is a newsweek to top the p u poll.

  19. The RNC is spending in Montana? Does that make any sense? Howard will explain it…

  20. Polaris says:

    S+P now hit negative territory.

    -Polaris

  21. Polaris says:

    Nasdaq too.

    -Polaris

  22. Tina says:

    Just imagine, MAC would have been even stronger if he voted against the WS BAil out bill.

  23. Howard Dean says:

    I just posted what they wrote. I don’t believe the race is 13 points. Settle down, big fella. How’s that McCain 40 state sweep looking right now?

    Comment by Robb

    You can’t even read your own post.

    It’s 15 points.

    Again, you’re a tool.

  24. Tina says:

    Breaking NEWS:

    Joe Biden, you have to make less than $150,000 to get a tax cut.

    We were at $250,000, then $200,000, then $180,000, and now below $150,000.

  25. Howard Dean says:

    How’s that McCain 40 state sweep looking right now?

    Comment by Robb

    All predictions were retracted after the financial meltdown.

    Try to keep up, I know it’s challenging.

  26. geauxlsu says:

    Is there a link to the TIPP pollster’s comments?

  27. Tina says:

    If politico.com says that they are pulling out of VA, FL, and CO, then they must be.

    If they are spending in Montana and W. Virginia. Then they must be.

    Never mind who is they.

  28. Tina says:

    Mac blasted the Obumbler for now saying that tax cuts for people below $150,000. They will cut a new ad.

    Fortunatley, Biden is on tape saying this.

  29. Howard Dean says:

    Does that make any sense? Howard will explain it…

    Comment by bluemassgroupie — 10/

    Why is Obama spending millions in PA and NH?

    Explain that.

  30. Tina says:

    Its the sinking Titanic according to Politico.com

  31. yarrrr says:

    THat hillbuzz article is probably crap…

  32. Polaris says:

    #23 No Tina. I’m sorry but the House GOP went to the Rush Limbaugh school of economics. If Mac had gone against the so-called bailout, it would have failed and the banking system would have collapsed.

    A lot of the market is psychological and the international banking system needed assurance for those three critical days and didn’t get it while the House GOP stabbed Mac in the back after Mac got them the best deal he could get.

    The grownups finally wrested control but by that time Mac had been badly damaged, the bill was far worse, and confidence had been destroyed.

    With friends like the House GOP, Mac didn’t need any enemies.

    -Polaris

  33. Tina says:

    I am easily deceived by the un-msm.

  34. David says:

    #4, just another liberal poll trying to influence undecided voters as well as deflating Republican moral.

  35. geauxlsu says:

    When did Biden make the $150,000 comment? Haven’t heard that one. I’m sure he just “misspoke”.

  36. Tina says:

    Polaris, the market is down over 20% since the passage of that bill. I for one would have voted against it because it has FAILED so far.

  37. Polaris says:

    #25 The great shrinking socalistic tax cut.

    Ah Sen Biden…the gift that keeps on giving.

    -Polaris

  38. Tina says:

    Its on tape, Geau. and MAC just hammered him from PA.

    I still do not know why he is in PA.

  39. Pino says:

    Brandon,

    do you the internals for Ras national? Thanks.

    Pino

  40. CK MacLeod says:

    The TIPPster was interviewed live on Fox. I doubt they’ll have any video to link, but you never know. It wasn’t the greatest interview: He didn’t seem anywhere near as comfortable as the Zogmeister or Raz the Pollster. But, yes, he did say he thought the race was in striking distance for Mav, and that the polls would converge. He also emphasized his great respect for his colleagues – so maybe he’s a tool, too! (jk – he was being polite and has to deal with all of them at the big conferences where they reveal they have no proof that they’re all fools.)

  41. Tina says:

    Fox reporter just said ” Hmm his tax number keeps going down.”

    Bottom line, there is no tax cut for anyone.

  42. Tina says:

    I do agree that Gaffe Biden is the gift that keeps on giving.

  43. Polaris says:

    #37 Tina, don’t take this the wrong way, but that statement tells me that you don’t know what the hell you are talking about. Do you think the bill was passed to save the market? Do you?!?

    The market is small potatoes! Markets go up and down. That’s no big deal.

    What happened was that the LIBOR index got so badly out of whack with the prime that money was no longer flowing creating a situation where there was an imminent cascade falure in the world-wide banking system.

    If you think the people are upset about the so-called “bail out” bill, I guarantee they’d be upset a week to ten days later when they got laid off because their business couldn’t float the short term paper that all small business need to day solvent.

    When businesses can’t float short term paper, the economy DIES.

    Look at how the LIBOR rate is starting to correct itself now (albeit too slowly).

    -Polaris

  44. David says:

    #28, Tina,

    Who is pulling out of VA, FL, etc?

  45. todd says:

    remember the “jays won the world series in ’93, and the canadians responded by voting the government out by the biggest margain in history.

  46. CK MacLeod says:

    He’s in PA, Tina, because he believes his pollsters, not THEIR pollsters, and because a breakthrough in PA wins the election, while a bit better defense spread thin among states all over the country might not achieve anything. Bam-Bam was in PA out in the rain today, too. Would he be there risking pneumonia if he thought he was up by double digits?

  47. Originalist says:

    Any links to the Joe Biden comments?

  48. Robbie says:

    Obama is spending money every where because he has so much of it. My goodness, he collected 150 million in September alone and McCain only got about 80 million for the entire general election campaign. Obama’s spending it because he has it. If he were to sit on some of that money and lose, could you imagine the recriminations.

    McCain was in a no-win situation on the bailout. The public opposed it, but it was necessary for the banking system. Had McCain opposed it, he would have had article after article written about his poor economic judgement. His campaign suspension didn’t help either. Everything that could go wrong for him has gone wrong for him. Add that to a crappy campaign and you get where we are today.

  49. mam says:

    Polaris,

    I’m needing some help understanding the Pew poll. It indicates that Obama has a huge lead in early voting. Is that based on exit polls of early voters? If so, I thought early voting exit polling was frowned upon, if not illegal. It seems as though yesterday we were all beginning to feel more confident in a McCain/Palin comeback, but today the mood has changed and with the markets tanking, we’re all sensing more doom and gloom. HELP!!

  50. Brandon says:

    #40.

    R’s 87.30% McCain- 10.33% Obama
    D’s 87.70% Obama- 10.65% McCain
    I’s 49.90% Obama- 44.20% McCain

  51. CK MacLeod says:

    Sarah! & Mav were smokin’ in Hershey – about the best I’ve seen them. I can only just barely stand listening to Bam-Bam, but he was pretty good for him, too.

  52. Tina says:

    Polaris I understand the market, and other things could have been done with respect to the $700 billion bill.

    We have no disagreement about the credit market being frozen. There were other prescriptions for it, such as greater coordination among central bankers.

  53. Tina says:

    It would have provided an issue for MAC and needed differentation between him, President Bush, and the Obumbler.

  54. Tina says:

    David – I am assuming that you are the VA David. Politico,com wrote all of this stuff, so they have no reason to lie. And one can not question their accuracy.

    So, what they write is correct.

  55. Tina says:

    David, and pew has the race where its at, plus 13 or plus 15, or whatever it is.

  56. maelstrom says:

    New IN Poll: Daniels Well Ahead Of Long Thompson

    From the South Bend Tribune, a lefty rag. Mitch 53- JLT 41. This helps Mac.

    http://www.theindychannel.com/news/17820680/detail.html

  57. Pino says:

    Brandon,

    Thanks. I’ll wait for IBD/TIPP and BG internals for giving my weighted averaged national poll.

    Pino

  58. CK MacLeod says:

    but today the mood has changed and with the markets tanking, we’re all sensing more doom and gloom.

    What tanking? The Dow’s back up, but on this kind of low volume ahead of a Fed meeting, ahead of end of the month redemptions, ahead of an uncertain election, it could jitter around to just about anywhere before you’re done typing a blog comment.

    For several reasons, I’d love to see the market react to a major poll showing McCain in the lead. The move would like be muted, but might be noticeable. I was day-trading during the ’00 recount, and everytime some lawyer came out to talk to the press the market would move accordingly – up for Bush, down for Gore. Very, very nuts.

  59. Howard Dean says:

    but today the mood has changed and with the markets tanking, we’re all sensing more doom and gloom. HELP!!

    Comment by mam

    TROLL!

  60. cheesehead says:

    A couple of interesting things about those Texas early voting results:

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117383/posts

    1) No evidence of “army of youth”

    If there were an “army of youth” vote, Travis County (Austin) would stick out. It doesn’t. Its increase in early voting tracks the statewide early voting increase, 2004 to 2008.

    Williamson County, the very Republican county north of Austin, is doing about as well in early voting. Furthermore, in Williamson Co., registration increased 2004 to 2008 by 16%, vs. only 4% in Travis Co.

    2) Harris County (Houston) isn’t as anomalous as it looks.

    There was a discussion a few days ago about how early voting in Harris Co. had doubled from 2004 to 2008. Yes, that’s true. But a better way of saying it is that in 2004, Harris Co. early voting was only half of what it should have been.

    2004

    Harris Co., cum by 10/24: 8.8%
    Dallas Co., 13.4%

    2008

    Harris Co., cum by 10.26: 18.5%
    Dallas Co., 21.3%

    Maybe they didn’t have enough early voting stations in Harris Co. in 2004, lines too long, etc.

    Regardless, this year Harris Co. in “normal.”

    In short, nothing to see here, move along…

  61. L TePaske says:

    If their were other fixes for the credit markets why weren’t they out their. It is incumbant on congress to originate bills, why didn’t they? pick a party. The majority wanted power so badly they would let the bbaanking system tank and the Reps were as afraid to act as they have been for 8 years.

  62. sam says:

    I am not sure what campaign fundraising numbers are floating around the internet, but here’s what Opensecrets.org reports for Cash On Hand (as of Sept 30, based on FEC filings which were completed Oct 20):

    Barack Obama $133,649,692
    Democratic Party $91,389,525
    DNC $11,011,653
    DCCC $23,344,994
    DSCC $8,359,159
    TOTAL Dems $267,755,023

    John McCain $95,880,920
    Republican Party $121,867,979
    RNC $59,203,959
    NRCC $12,707,693
    NRSC $17,377,681
    TOTAL Reps $307,038,232

  63. Tina says:

    It was a RUSH Job on the WS Bail out bill. I was against it in part because I felt that parts of it were just a bail out WS in stead of a housing recovery.

  64. Tina says:

    RAS – NEW PA poll out at 5 EST.

    Says race in PA is narrowing, but Obama still ahed.

    Again # to be out at 5 EST.

  65. Howard Dean says:

    WASHINGTON – One of the nation’s best-known retired Army generals, Colin Powell, described Sen. Ted Stevens in court today as a “trusted individual” and a man with a “sterling” reputation.
    “He was someone whose word you could rely on,” said Powell

    …..

  66. CK MacLeod says:

    Raz the Pollster just said on FNC that he’s re-polled PA and will show tightening later today.

  67. Tina says:

    Basically Ras says what he said weeks ago, race is over with.

  68. Tina says:

    Its a done deal given the pull outs, spending in WV and Montana, and what ras says.

  69. gaGOP says:

    ***Latest Conference Call Summary***

    Fwiw worth folks…all the usual warnings about what campaigns tell the troops apply.

    The campaign is noticing a vastly improved situation in the West (CO, NV, Iowa) over the weekend. Something is indeed up in PA and Dem support continues to erode in the Western part of the state.

    The South is still worrying the campaign and quite frankly is a drain on resources though NC has shown measurable improvement and looks like a deffinite hold. VA will be close all they way and GA is closer than they would like but still looks ok statewide. The poster who commented on them buying airtime in W.VA to overlap the VA market because it was cheaper is exactly right. There is deep anger at those who are “leaking” about dissension in the campaign and that it is “all over” and it most decidedly does not come from anyone who is close to the internal numbers or the decision making.

    A very interesting exchange took place with one of the regional chairs asking “why are we publically stating we are a couple of points down? That is typically not a good strategy”. Response: “Wait and See”

    Sorry for the long post

  70. Polaris says:

    #50 Exit polling the early vote IS illegal. However a normal poll can ask as a sub-demographic question, “did you already vote?” and include that with the poll. It’s only a poll and no more indicative than any other poll (and is subject to overparticipation and other methedology errors).

    Everyone,

    Take the partisan numbers coming out of the early voting results with a grain of salt. When you hear a partisan split from early voting, it’s from the SOS offices and that refers to the number of registered Dems, GOP, and Indies. It does not reflect the self-declared party loyalties. In North Carolina, for example, a huge number of self-identified republicans are registered democrats.

    -Polaris

  71. Pino says:

    Brandon,

    are you sure about the Ras numbers? If I use them to recalculate the party weights I get: 37.9D, 33.7R, and 28.4I. Now, he claims that he is using 40D, 32.8R, and 27.2I. Rounding here is not an issue as 4 significant digits were provided. Is he changing weights?

    Pino

  72. RyanH says:

    Interesting and solid news GAGOP. Seems consistent with other indicators, but the news about Colorado is heartening. Onward McCain

  73. Steve Z says:

    The market isn’t tanking. At 11:30 AM, Dow +1.35%, Nasdaq +0.62%, S&P +0.96%.

    Hopefully, Bernanke or Paulson won’t try to outdo Biden in gaffes. Mac needs some good financial news!

  74. Jay says:

    I wonder what the wait and see comment is all about? Hmmmmmm….

  75. gaGOP says:

    Jay – If I had to guess they want to drive the comeback narrative. Saying they are pulling even at this point would be too early and the MSM would discount it. However if they do it on the Friday or Saturday before the election and act shocked….well if goes according to plan it will create the sense of Momemtum for Mac in the final 48 hours.

  76. Polaris says:

    #61 I can confirm your first point first hand. There is very, very little excitement about the election this year at UT Austin (quite unlike four years ago where UTAustin was almost a zoo…or even 8 years ago which wasn’t as bad as 2004 but definately hopping).

    I also note in early voting, they have scores of voting booths availble but very few takers.

    This is why I instinctively distrusted the huge “Army of Youth” meme the pollsters are selling. I live right next to one of the biggest college campuses and one of the most liberal in the country, and there has been a shocking lack of youth enthusiasm this time out.

    -Polaris

  77. Tony says:

    27 sorry no link, I was typing as I heard him on Fox.

    On the previous thread, about 1/4 from end, have some comments about the TIPP
    interview.

    We might look at his internals when they come out and see some positives, or we can listen to what he said about Democrat enthusiasm. According to TIPP, voter turnout in ‘last election’ for D’s was 64%, but could be as high as 75-77% this election.

  78. Polaris says:

    Dow is recovering. Grownups seem to be back in charge. Dow up a bit less than 200.

    -Polaris

  79. Polaris says:

    #78 I know what he said, but I’m just not seeing it in the results we are getting thus far.

    -Polaris

  80. Brutus says:

    #68

    After he had said it was closing last week.

  81. gaGOP says:

    That’s good news Polaris – I agree that Mac’s fate is at least somewhat intertwined with the market. In fact if you overlap Mac’s poll numbers over the S&P 500 you will see remarkable correlation.

  82. BENNI says:

    my numbers for the new PA of the temple uni are:

    BHO:51.2%
    JSMC:48.8%

    but I doubt much that Obama wil get 90% and 6% more votes as mccain in PA!!

  83. maelstrom says:

    $1.99 a gallon in Brownsburg IN.

  84. BENNI says:

    here are my numbers for the new marist poll for IA:

    BHO:52.3%
    JSMC:46.2%

  85. Tony says:

    Polaris, I know you were watching. The comment was for the poster in 27.

    BTW, that 72% Rep turnout he mentioned was for the 2004 election, right?

  86. Polaris says:

    #83 If that Temple PA poll is right, then PA really is close.

    -Polaris

  87. Steve Z says:

    #63–Interesting about those fundraising numbers. I’m not sure what Sam means about the difference between “Republican Party” and “RNC”, or between “Democratic Party” and “DNC”.

    The NRSC and NRCC will probably spend all their money, and the RNC will probably spend some of its money on down-ticket races. Still, after hearing so much about the Obama fund-raising juggernaut with multiple donations from asdfasdf, qwerty, and Adolfe Hitler, its heartening to see that the Republicans have more to spend–$276.95M to $236.05M outside the Congressional campaigns.

    Time to put that extra money to work!

  88. Polaris says:

    #86 That was my understanding, yes.

    -Polaris

  89. BENNI says:

    here my numbers for the new Marist poll for NH:

    BHO:48.6%
    JSMC:52.1%

  90. Polaris says:

    #90 Hoo-Boy! If that NH poll is right, ME-2 (which is very close to NH demographically) may also be in play.

    -Polaris

  91. Michael says:

    Robbie is such a TOOL.

  92. MDefl says:

    OK, I am going to say something that no one here is going to like. After Friday, all of Mac’s ads should emphasize the positive quailites of Mac and how those translate into being fit for President. Use the compelling Mac bio to the absolute hilt.

    The time for going negative on BO will be past. All the traction that could be gained from Ayers, re-dist etc.., will be achieved. This is basically what Reagan did in 80.

  93. Brandon says:

    #72. I rechecked them and yes they are correct.

  94. Brandon says:

    #72. I rechecked them and yes they are correct.

  95. ameister says:

    I still think we don’t hold today. Too
    much negative sentiment. Look for the 2 pm swoon again. Could be hedge funds but
    possibly a concerted effort to hold it down IMHO.Time will tell. Thanks for all the dialog. I was here in 04 and don’t pretend to be a polling or math expert But at least I admit it. Oh Yeah, I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night

  96. BENNI says:

    Here are my numbers for the new susa poll for OR:

    BHO:51.3%
    JSMC:46.7%

  97. Louise B says:

    90 you’re just guessing, right? that’s not an actual poll is it?

  98. mam says:

    Thank you Polaris and Steve Z. I’m glad to hear that the markets are up and encouraged that the Pew numbers don’t necessarily reflect any real voting numbers. Polaris – I appreciate your polling acumen, but more importantly, I am grateful for your positive attitude, your willingness to share your know-how, and the respect that you show others on this board who come here to share our views.

  99. Liberal Chris says:

    You guys are free to mock the Pew poll showing Obama plus 15%, but I believe Pew’s last poll before the 2004 election was Bush plus 3%. So the simplistic “that poll is a liberal conspiracy” approach is kind of dubious.

    There’s no way Obama is up that much but again, the best way to estimate is to average all the polls, including the outliers on both ends, rather than to simply discard the results you don’t like.

  100. Tony says:

    89

    Well then if Republicans got 74% in 2004, isn’t it possible for Dems to get 75-77% this year?

    I guess at this time nobody knows how many Democrats will be voting Democrat.

  101. BENNI says:

    my numbers for the new PPP poll for NC are:

    BHO:43.9%
    JSMC:52.0%

  102. Liberal Chris says:

    I love how BENNI just recalculates all the polls to create better numbers for McCain.

    In a year when 13% of the population thinks we’re going in the right direction, with a GOP president with the worst approval of all time, is it really the best statistical approach to pretend like party identification this year won’t change at all from the last election?

    None of the professional pollsters agree with BENNI’s approach. But I think the funniest thing is that McCain is still losing even with BENNI’s self-serving recalibrations.

  103. Pino says:

    Brandon,

    ok, thanks. Therefore Ras is not using, as he claims, +7.2D but +4.2D.

    Pino

  104. Phil says:

    Ok, This is what I’m hoping for and quite frankly what I think is a realistic scenario.

    We win the “undecideds” 3 to 1 and close the national numbers to O +2 on election day. We win narrowly in Ohio, Fla, Virginia and Col to get the electoral votes necessary to win. How could that happen? Well, Obama blowouts in red states like California, NY, and Illinois, narrower than normal wins for Mac in southern states like NC, Georgia, Texas and the plains states inflate the Obama national numbers and give him a 3 million popular vote win.

    Almost like drwing an inside straight winning Fla, Ohio but those states are very resistent to the messiah and have been for months. Colorado and Virginia? Just a gut that GOP states won’t in the end go for a lefty black socialist.

  105. Jsquared says:

    Chris, the average of crap is gonna be.. guess what.. crap. No objective person can sit here and say realistically that the Dems are going to turn out 7-10% more than Reps. Based on history, it’s not going to happen. Early voting numbers confirm this so far. Next Tuesday will complete the story.

  106. Polaris says:

    #100 Absolutely not Liberal Chris. Averaging Polls is one thing you should NOT do because of colinear error. Basically the PEW poll makes ridiculous assumptions about turnout and that means you can’t just average it. You have to make sure before you average anything that all polls are looking at the same thing (i.e. same turnout).

    -Polaris

  107. Chekote says:

    A lot of the market is psychological and the international banking system needed assurance for those three critical days…

    There were other ways to address this that did not involve the Paulson Plan. I now understand why Mac and the GOP are down. It is because of because like you who think that government bailouts are the answer. The real answer is to let the market make the corrections needed. Let the market punish the bad players.

    From a political strategic point, Mac made several huge mistakes. After coming out strongly against the AIG bailout, he reversed once Bush went ahead with it. Why reverse? It made Mac look like a fool. Is not as if Mac continued to oppose the bailout Bush was going to suddenly backtrack. The bailout was a done deal.

    On the bailout, there were enough votes to pass it. The Dems were eager to approve 700 billion in additional spending. They are poised to win big this election and going forward they can use that money to fund whatever they want. Mac missed the chance to break with Bush. Anyway, it is water under the bridge.

  108. I'veGotABraceletTooJim says:

    #100 “the best way to estimate is to average all the polls, including the outliers on both ends, rather than to simply discard the results you don’t like.”

    OK. Here goes.

    Ras says O by +5
    Gallup has O +5
    BG has O +3
    Zogby has O +4
    “IveGotABraceletTooJim” poll has McCain + 42 pt lead

    So the average lead is….

    MCCAIN *LEADS* BY 5 POINTS NATIONALLY!!!

    Yes, i like your method better.

    Because, yknow, the average person living in freaking Jeddah, Saudi Arabia lives like a king, because the “average” per capita $ is real high because of all the oil shiek gazillionaires.

    Wait, they don’t even have running water or electricity? Hm…. maybe this “averaging crap polls” idea you speak of is… dare I say… flawed???

  109. Polaris says:

    #103 A lot of the professional pollsters have agendas that are threatened by Benni’s approach.

    -Polaris

  110. Jsquared says:

    We need a Christian Family Tracker update from Eph..

  111. Polaris says:

    #108 I take umbrage at that as a libetarian. I am emphatically NOT for bailouts to stop market swings.

    This was different and it took a careful look at the libor index to confirm.

    When I have a person that suffers from a heart-attack in front of me, I don’t ask questions about who made the defib paddles!!! It was the same here. We had an honest-to-god crisis here, the equivalent of a heart attack in the banking system and we had to act right then.

    Get over it.

    -Polaris

  112. Andrew says:

    BENNI is reweighting the polls to the 2004 party IDs, I believe. So while it’s useful, it puts McCain about 2.5% farther ahead than what we accept this year’s party IDs would yield him, correct?

  113. I'veGotABraceletTooJim says:

    Liberal Chris,

    So for this HUGE D+10 shift to occur, (considering the blowout year 2006 was D+3) you have to believe that:

    about eight to ten MILLION voters saw jack abramoff in 2006 and said “I’m still a republican”. they saw iraq under Rumsfeld and said “stil in the gop”. they saw pork barrel bridges to nowhere and said “Still a proud Republican”. They sat through text messaging little boys (foley) and said “Proud republican”. They saw macacas and rinos and said “proud republican”

    ..But suddenly, sometime in between a 9% approval dem congress, Rev. Wright & redistribution, eight million voters said “No, NOW I’m a proud DEMOCRAT!”

    I’d like what you’re smoking liberal chris. It must be nice to live in a dream world where you can refute any logic by saying “oh just ignore emotion lol!!1!”

  114. Chuck Schick says:

    Sorry for the remedial question…

    what is ME-2? Is Maine split into regions for the electorial college?

    Thanks!

  115. Liberal Chris says:

    #107 if the polls are all committing a colinear error, you are correct that averaging polls will fail. The problem for this theory is that the polling average (both nationally and state-by-state) was by and large an incredibly accurate predictor in both 2000 and 2004. So you have to find some explanation why this year, but not in 2000 and 2004, all of the polls are erring in the obama direction.

    your theory is apparently that the polls are mis-estimating turnout and obama enthusiasm. to me, the fact that to varying degrees all of the professionals are estimating turnout models showing more dem self-identification and more dem enthusiasm is pretty persuasive.

    of course they could all be wrong, but i say to BENNI, if you have confidence in your recalibrations, go make an incredible amount of money on intrade.

  116. Brutus says:

    Lib Chris,

    Just because 13% may not like where the country is going doesn’t translate to votes for the “new guy”.

    Many GOP don’t like the path Bush took, they are still not going to go down the road less traveled, i.e., socialism.

  117. Polaris says:

    #113 False. Benni (correct me if I’m wrong Benni) is reweighting them to 2006 standards which was a very good Dem year. Andrew, fair warning, you just used a 538 talking point.

    -Polaris

  118. BENNI says:

    Here are my numbers for the new CO poll of Rasmussen:

    BHO:47.3%
    JSMC:52.0%

  119. Phil says:

    RAS says his polling indicates Mac has closed some in Pa. His last poll was 50 – 42 so maybe we are within 5 or so? That would be some positive news.

  120. Polaris says:

    #115 Yes. Maine (and Nebraska) assign their EVs by congressional district. ME-2 is the very northern congressional district of Maine and is signifacantly more conservative than the rest of the state.

    -Polaris

  121. Liberal Chris says:

    #110 as soon as you start impugning the pollsters solely on the basis of liberal agenda/bias, I am very skeptical. number one, their credibility and business will fall apart if they intentially mess up their own results. number two, this explanation completely fails to explain the point i made in #116. if liberal bias explains these results, why were the same supposedly biased pollsters so close to accurate in 2000 and 2004? it’s not like pew was giving wildly pro-kerry results in 2004.

  122. yarrrr says:

    “was by and large an incredibly accurate predictor in both 2000 and 2004.”

    Was it accurate in 2000?

  123. Jsquared says:

    I’d really like to see O under 50 in PA. Would 48-43 be too optimistic?

  124. Liberal Chris says:

    #118 Polaris and Benni should be well aware that it’s a silly assumption to imagine that party ID in a non-presidential election (2006) would be the same in a presidential election when turnout is always far higher.

    Again Benni, if you believe in your numbers, go put huge money on McCain winning Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, etc. I believe you can make six times your money at intrade on most of those states around now.

  125. BENNI says:

    My numbers for the new Ras poll for FL are:

    BHO:50.8%
    JSMC:49.8%

    But I dont believe Obama get more support as mcCain

  126. rjpinIL says:

    Question for Tina gaGOP and all the others that seem to have inside information, very little is heard from the McCain camp in the outside world, is this normal? Do they not trust the usual R leaning outlets?

    I’ve been lurking a long time and this question has been bugging me for a long time.

    rjpinIL

  127. Polaris says:

    #116 Did you read JayCost’s article on RCP, liberal chris?

    The fact is the pollsters don’t know what the turnout model is going to be and a critical mass (thanks in large part to Nate Silver and those like him) have been sold on the “Army of Youth/Enthusiastic Dem” model. So far the strong indicators from early voting is that it’s just not there.

    Here at Hedgehog we reject the fanciful approach and insist on turnout models grounded in history and are using a rather pessimistic 2006 model. Just because “all the pollsters” think something doesn’t make all the pollsters right.

    -Polaris

  128. Andrew says:

    Um, I’m the one who proposed the idea of Obama fanatics over-influencing polls, remember? I’m no troll.

    Correct me if I’m wrong but I made an excel sheet that takes internals and makes a composite based on Party ID Numbers… and for adjusted 2006 data I’m getting about 2 points lower than what BENNI is posting.

  129. Liberal Chris says:

    #128 I agree that the pollsters could all be wrong, I just think it’s very, very unlikely. Aren’t there any pollsters out there who believe your view of things? Where are they? Why aren’t there any?

    You make it sound like the pollsters have just been persuaded by some storyline about new voters. But they are asking questions of their subjects concerning enthusiasm, past voting behavior, intentions about voting, etc, and analyzing those answers statistically against past elections. They are reaching these models based on data and analysis. They can definitely be wrong though, but at this point that is your only hope – that the entire polling industry is making some very significantly incorrect turnout assumptions.

  130. BENNI says:

    My numbers for the new ras poll for MO
    are:
    BHO:47.8%
    JSMC:48.2%

  131. Andrew says:

    Also, how is saying that we expect the Party ID to go from 36.5/36.5/27 in 2004 to 38/36/26 or 38/35/27 a left-wing talking point? That’s the whole point of this party ID readjusting, to a D+2 or D+3.

  132. Polaris says:

    #125 Actually by using the 2006 numbers Liberal Chris, we are giving the Dems the benefit of the doubt. By pure historic rigor, we should be using 2004 numbers because it’s an empirically verified fact that partisan self-identification doesn’t vary much from one presidential election cycle to the next (going back all the way to the 1984 election). If you want to look at idealogy, this frozen trend goes back all the way back to at least 1976 (Roper Center doesn’t have records before that election).

    So far some of the early voting is suggesting that we probably should be using 2004…but I am still not willing to go that far.

    -Polaris

  133. yarrrr says:

    nm, gore was a lot closer than mccain is… if every poll was like ap, zogby, battleground, tipp, ras, etc then you’d have a case

    http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2genT.htm

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

  134. Robbie says:

    Robbie is such a TOOL.

    Comment by Michael — 10/28/2008 @ 11:45 am

    Michael’s awake and posting from his parent’s basement. Glad you could join us.

  135. Victrc says:

    BTW for all those who are wondering about a pullout in VA Sarah Palin was in Roanoke last night and the rally was originally supposed to be in the civic center, but was moved outside to the stadium. It was so loud and crowded and rowdy and the crowd just ate her up.

    So any talk about McCain pulling out of VA is totally out of reality when contrasted with is really going on.

  136. Chekote says:

    If you think the people are upset about the so-called “bail out” bill, I guarantee they’d be upset a week to ten days later when they got laid off because their business couldn’t float the short term paper that all small business need to day solvent.

    Small businesses don’t float commercial paper. Only large corporations do. Please, stick to analyzing polls.

    From the Corner:

    Re: Bleg for Financial Data [Peter Robinson]

    Last week, as you may recall, I asked for data on the credit markets. We all know, I explained, that the price of credit has gone up sharply, but what do we know about the amounts of credit being purchased at the new, higher prices? Had the credit markets truly “frozen?” Or were they continuing to function fairly smoothly at the new, higher prices?

    More than five dozen readers replied, giving me an education. At the worst moments of the crisis, broadly speaking, interbank lending did fall off sharply. But other forms of lending continued to take place at remarkably robust rates. Special thanks to the several readers who brought to my attention a study published earlier this month, “Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008,” a working paper published by the Minneapolis Fed. An excerpt:

    The financial crisis has also been associated with four widely held claims about the nature of the crisis and the associated spillovers to the rest of the economy. The financial press and policymakers have made the following four claims about the nature of the crisis.

    1. Bank lending to nonfinancial corporations and individuals has declined sharply.

    2. Interbank lending is essentially nonexistent.

    3. Commercial paper issuance by nonfinancial corporations has declined sharply, and rates have risen to unprecedented levels.

    4. Banks play a large role in channeling funds from savers to borrowers.

    Here we examine these claims using data from the Federal Reserve Board. Our argument that all four claims are false is based on data up until October 8, 2008.

    Let me repeat that: Four of the central claims of the press and policymakers, repeated ad infinitum over the last couple of months, and used, very explicitly, to undermine free market political candidates, including John McCain — these claims, reputable economists believe, are false.

    Go check it out Polaris.

  137. yarrrr says:

    “So far the strong indicators from early voting is that it’s just not there.”

    I don’t know how you get that… the Dems are doing well early voting wise… maybe it’s not enough but they’re pushing hard and getting results…

  138. Polaris says:

    #132 Andrew calm down. It is a left-wing talking point to ridicule such people as benni, AIN, and myself by claiming “they still think it’s 2004 and that’s obviously ridiculous”.

    1. We aren’t weighting to 2004. We are using the far more conservative 2006 model.

    2. It’s not at all “obviously ridiculous” esp in light of the early voting numbers.

    -Polaris

  139. BENNI says:

    my new ras numbers for NC are:

    BHO:46.7%
    JSMC:51.3%

  140. DWu says:

    I’veGotaBracelet —

    Post #109 is perhaps the funniest post of the year. 🙂

  141. Jay says:

    LC –

    Why should we think the turnout will be historic in the Ds favor?

    If your answer is – because the pollsters think so – that isn’t enough for the people here.

    Are there any other reasons?

  142. Originalist says:

    Troll alert.

  143. Liberal Chris says:

    #133 we shall see Polaris! It’s not an unreasonable position. I will just add that I was convinced there were many reasons to believe Kerry would outperform the polls in 2004. I subsequently identified the strongest source of bias in the polls in 2004: the identity of the person reading them (i.e., me).

  144. Polaris says:

    #137 Small businesses do buy short term loans to float payroll and there is a special market for this. This market is linked to the price of corporate paper.

    I am not an economist, but I do know that small busineses were looking at a terrifying situation. Go argue about it with MDefl who agrees with me and most definately is better qualified than the likes of us.

    -Polaris

  145. Andrew says:

    Alright but I never said anything beyond that I think BENNI’s numbers are adjusted to 2004 standards. If they’re 2006 numbers instead, cool, I’m glad to hear it. If they’re 2004 numbers, the gap is going to be about +2.5 more Obama before you factor out overparticipation by Obamaniacs, a possibly Bradley effect and the like…

  146. gaGOP says:

    Liberal Chris – The argument that this year will show more Dem Identification compared to 2006 solely because it is a presidential election is a totally facetious argument. Midterms bring out a smaller and much more committed swath of voters when compared to the more general turnout of a presidential election year. Because of the smaller size and more politicized nature of the electorate in Midterms there can be a bigger variation in Party ID compared to historical norms (think 1994 and 2006). In a presidential election year the pool of voters is larger and adheres more strongly to historical party ID norms and is less vulnerable to big partisan swings.

    Polaris can you back me up on this.

  147. BENNI says:

    MY new OH numbers of the ras poll are:

    BHO:47.5%
    JSMC:51.2%

  148. gaGOP says:

    haha…polaris just saw your comment on 133, you basically said the same thing

  149. Liberal Chris says:

    #142 i don’t know about historic, but the pollsters are pros. They have methodologies for gauging turnout that are data driven and refer back to past elections. And there are a lot of pollsters so they presumably use different methodologies for different reasons. They don’t all agree on the methodology or the precise number, but they all seem to be concluding that obama is ahead.

    certainly not foolproof, but for example if benni’s recalibrations were right, the pollsters this year are doing an unbelievably negligent job in every poll. do i trust the collective expertise of dozens of established pollsters, or do I trust BENNI, an unidentified blog poster?

  150. Darrell says:

    120…who knows what Rasmussen meant. yesterday he said of the VA poll showing it 51/47: “Stability reigns in Virginia as well where Obama leads 51% to 47%.” The problem is the last Rasmussen poll had Obama up by 10 points. So a shift in one week of 6 points, Rasmussen calls stability.

    So based on that standard, the last Rasmussen PA poll showed it 52/41 for the Obamarxist, and so maybe by saying that it tightened a little, its now only 48/47 for Obama.

  151. Chekote says:

    I am not an economist, but I do know that small busineses were looking at a terrifying situation.

    No one is denying that. All we are saying is that the Paulson Plan was the wrong prescription and the fact that the markets tanked after its approval proves my point. And please stop blaming the House Republicans. Pelosi had plenty of votes to pass the package.

  152. Polaris says:

    #138 yarrr, no they really aren’t. There are a couple of places where they are (NC and GA) but not enough to take the states.

    Otherwise? Piffle. They are underperforming expectatins badly (esp with regard to the youth vote) when compared with 2004.

    I heard the same thing in 2004 about Kerry and the early vote.

    Here’s something else. The polls this cycle are completely unlike the polls in 2004. That time the polls were basically honest (more or less) with a more or less agreed upon turnout model (which turned out to be flawed, but it was flawed in both the GOP turnout and Dem leaning youth vote).

    This time? The youth vote isn’t showing up.

    -Polaris

  153. BENNI says:

    Ras numbers for VA:

    BHO:49.3%
    JSMC:49.5%

  154. yarrrr says:

    “nm, gore was a lot closer than mccain is… if every poll was like ap, zogby, battleground, tipp, ras, etc then you’d have a case”

    BTW, Gore had two polls actually showing him in the lead right at the end… if McCain wins there’s good shot he does it without the popular vote but he really needs to get one poll with him ahead…

  155. Keystone says:

    Imagine if you are a union member and you get a call asking if you are supporting Obama. What would you say? How would you vote? PA may go red.

  156. Originalist says:

    Here is the clip of Biden’s 150K gaffe. What a bafoon: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAEE1_IUycs

  157. Polaris says:

    #150 “Pollsters are pros”

    Actually for the most part they are not. The person that runs SUSA for example has a degree in journalism with no education in stastical modeling and precious little practical experience either. That is shockingly common with a lot of the public pollsters.

    AIN, and I, (and I am sure others) have far better educational and practical experience with statistical modeling than most public pollsters.

    -Polaris

  158. Phil says:

    As I said on the other thread, I want to see Mason-Dixons from

    Ohio – last one we we were up 1

    Florida – we were up 1

    Va – we were down 2

    Colorado we were tied but that was the 1st of October.

    Mason Dixon is an honest pollster and has a very good track record in his state polls. No one polls Florida like Mason-Dixon.

  159. Chuck Schick says:

    Any thoughts on the Pew report that early voting looks very good for Obama? Seems to contradict multiple other reports Ive heard.

  160. Andy says:

    Intrade is insane… you get:
    5:1 odds on Ohio,
    1.5:1 in NC
    Better than 5:1 in VA
    3:1 in FL
    3:1 in MO…
    All strong in Obama’s corner.
    Money to be made if you remain ignorant to “online gambling” laws.

  161. Polaris says:

    Liberal Chris,

    If most of the pollsters (esp MSM ones) keep insisting on a turnout model that is about +7 Dem (the army of youth model), then you won’t see it. If the pollsters used the same model four years ago, they’d have prediced a Kerry landslide. Sound familiar?

    -Polaris

  162. gaGOP says:

    #127 I can’t speak for Tina, but you are correct that the McCain campaign likes to play it close to the vest even with conservative allies. IMHO their are those at high levels in the campaign that look down on certain conservative outlets like talk radio. Not making those outlets an active part of the campaign has been a HUGE mistake that most fair minded folks in the campaign would now aknowledge. Having said that, I think Schmidt has done a pretty good job of attempting to drive a message in the most hostil media and economic environment I have ever seen…that any part of it gets out at all is remarkable.

  163. BENNI says:

    my new numbers for the ne susa poll for OH are:

    BHO:43.9%
    JSMC:51.9%

  164. Liberal Chris says:

    #156 this is the kind of theoretical basis for rejecting polling results that I find extremely dubious. Is there any empirical evidence that union members, moreso than other people, lie to pollsters? Why would a union member lie to, for example, an automated telephone call from survey usa? And why would they lie more than someone else? It doesn’t make a whit of sense and there isn’t any data to back it up.

    At least the bradley effect and the cell phone effect are possible polling distortions that have been researched and debated with some sort of methodology. I don’t think either one will matter very much, but at the margins maybe.

  165. Chekote says:

    I looked at the BG Ras numbers. All within the MoE. Obama should be running away with this election. He is not and that says a lot. But I will leave the poll analysis to Polaris and others.

    I am a little surprised that Mac is not doing better with Latinos. But then I saw some Spanish language commercials where Obama is promising a whole bunch of free goodies. He will lose these voters once he won’t be able to deliver.

  166. BENNI says:

    at 5pm ras release PA!!!!!!!!!

  167. Darrell says:

    136…any idea how many showed up to the Roanoke Palin rally? I remember when Obama showed up there, he could only get about 6000.

  168. gaGOP says:

    wow…too bad the blog doesn’t have spell check. Sorry about that.

  169. Polaris says:

    #160 Pew doesn’t know what the hell they are talking about. They base the comment based on the lead that Obama has in thier own poll (already badly weighted) with self-ided early voters. I doubt seriously they’ve even bothered to check out the actual SOS numbers.

    -Polaris

  170. Liberal Chris says:

    #162 the pollsters clearly believe a different turn out model is appropriate this year versus 2004. Do you disagree that self-ID party-ID has moved towards the Dems since 2004?

  171. Chekote says:

    Redstate is pointing out that Powell testified on behalf of Stevens. What a great judge of character Colin is!

  172. DWu says:

    Here is some of the polling on the 2000 election in the final days of that race. The numbers represent the Bush lead in the polls.

    Notice that dozens of polls showed a HUGE Bush victory just days before real Americans went to the polls.

    Polls can close quickly.

    (Sorry about the formatting)

    VOTER.COM ^ 9
    WASHINGTON POST 3
    ABC 4
    CBS/NEW YORK TIMES 5
    CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP 5
    IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ 9
    PEW 3
    REUTERS/MSNBC ^ 2
    ABC # 4
    CBS ^ 2
    CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP 4
    IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ 7
    NBC/WALL ST. JOURNAL 3
    REUTERS/MSNBC ^ 4
    ABC # 3
    CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP 6
    FOX/OPINION DYNAMICS ^ 0
    HOTLINE ^ 7
    IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ 5
    MARIST COLLEGE 5
    NEWSWEEK 2
    REUTERS/MSNBC ^ 3
    VOTER.COM ^ # 9
    ABC # 4
    CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP 4
    IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ 5
    REUTERS/MSNBC ^ 3
    VOTER.COM ^ 7

  173. gaGOP says:

    Liberal Chris – I will acknowledge that the possibility that the Dems have increased their Party ID since 2004 if you allow for the fact that the Pollsters had to “guess” on turnout and may have “guessed” wrong and are now stuck with the models they developed.

  174. Phil says:

    We voted early yesterday in League City, Tx (NASA area). There was a pretty good line. However, it was very quiet and there was no electioneering near the polls and everyone was really quiet in line – solemn in fact. Different from last time for sure. Kind of spooky. Everyone in line seemed like they were going in for a root canal.

  175. Andrew says:

    BENNI, how are you getting those numbers? When I take the internal data from that SUSA poll and adjust the party IDs from 2004 D+1.5, R-1.5 (for a total value of D+3 from 2004, the assumption we’ve been making here for months), I get

    Obama 44.9
    McCain 49.1

    This is McCain + 4.2, which is great news, but it’s significantly less than the McCain + 8 you have. What party ID numbers are you using? My 2004 IDs from CNN are D/R/I 35/40/25, so my projected 2008 IDs are 36.5/38.5/25 …..

  176. Polaris says:

    #171 Yes, partially. I agree there may be a historic shift back to the Ds in self-ided partisanship since 2004 (but the early voting is making me wonder), but if you look at Presidential elections since 1980 (ie starting in 1984), you find that the partisan ID advantages don’t shift by any more than 3-4 points per four year cycle MAX (and partisan Ids themselve only seem to shift a max of three points), AND no party ever has more than a 5pt advantage (1996 was the Dem high water mark).

    Are you really willing to tell me with no hard evidence whatsoever, liberal chris, that this year will be somehow different?

    -Polaris

  177. Howard Dean says:

    He will lose these voters once he won’t be able to deliver.

    Comment by Chekote — 10/28/2008 @ 12:22 pm

    He will deliver with ease.

    Pelosi/Reid will see to that.

    There will be no way to stop it.

  178. Sharon says:

    is there a transcript of the 2001 Obama tape that was going around yesterday?

  179. Jay says:

    165 – if you notice, there are very few people saying the polls are bad due to Bradley effect.

    Almost all posters are discussing hard numbers and weighting issues for the disagreement with the pollsters.

    The PUMA/Bradley effect would be nice, but we are not using that as a way to justify a win.

  180. Phil says:

    My wife and I voted sraight R by the way except for one office. We both refused to vote for unopposed Ron Paul. I’m sure he’ll be crushed.

  181. Brutus says:

    Lib Chris,

    Benni’s credentials carry more weight than yours. He has been here longer and takes careful consideration into his work.

    Probably more effort than copying phrases and arguments from the o’hole’s playbook.

  182. Tina says:

    Obama’s position in the past was that he would raise taxes on families making more than $250,000 a year and individuals making more than $200,000. But in his new ad, “Defining Moment,” he seems to lower it to $200,000 for families. “Here’s what I’ll do as president,” Obama says in the ad. “To deal with our current emergency I’ll launch a rescue plan for the middle class That begins with a tax cut for 95 percent of working Americans. If you have a job, pay taxes and make less than $200,000 a year, you’ll get a tax cut.” That seems kind of ambiguous, but the graphic on the screen says clearly: “Famlies making less than $200,000 get tax cut.” Now, the McCain campaign is pointing out something that Joe Biden said in a Pennsylvania TV interview yesterday:

    What we’re saying is that $87 billion tax break doesn’t need to go to people making an average of 1.4 million, it should go like it used to. It should go to middle class people — people making under $150,000 a year.”

    Obama is now down to $200,000 to get a tax cut (down from 250k) while Gaffe Biden says $150,000.

  183. cheesehead says:

    #168, Darrell:

    “More than 14,000 show up for Palin rally in Salem” (Roanoke, VA)

    http://www.wsls.com/sls/news/politics/article/more_than_14000_show_up_for_palin_rally_in_salem/20145/

    I read somewhere else that it was the largest crowd ever in that Salem stadium.

  184. Tina says:

    Senator McCalin slams Obama in PA:

    Senator Obama has made a lot of promises. First he said people making less than 250,000 dollars would benefit from his plan, then this weekend he announced in an ad that if you’re a family making less than 200,000 dollars you’ll benefit — but yesterday, right here in Pennsylvania, Senator Biden said tax relief should only go to “middle class people — people making under 150,000 dollars a year.” It’s interesting how their definition of rich has a way of creeping down. At this rate, it won’t be long before Senator Obama is right back to his vote that Americans making just 42,000 dollars a year should get a tax increase. We can’t let that happen.

  185. Victrc says:

    168 –> The Civic Center holds at least 11,000 in regular seating and they had to move it outside, Id say it was at the minimum double that, interesting that the Junior Senator from Illinois only got 6,000 less than 25% of Governor Palin.

  186. Tina says:

    So, to summarize for the libs:

    Obama says $250,000 and below last week.

    Then in an ad over the weekend – he says $200,000 and below.

    Then yesterday, Gaffe Biden says (and its on tape) $150,000 or less.

  187. Chekote says:

    Tina

    Mac needs to get on the air and say that 40% of the people don’t pay any income taxes. Obama is going to bring back welfare. He needs to use the welfare language. I don’t know why Mac is still holding back this late in the game. Is he afraid to lose the moderate vote? I think that’s gone already. Apparently, Mac is underperforming Bush in the Philly suburbs.

  188. Llarry from Longview says:

    #176, I get the same thing.

  189. knova_red says:

    182-IIRC BENNI is actually a Hillary supporter and from Germany. He has no dog in this particualr fight so what is in it for him to fudge figures?

  190. Tina says:

    Sounds like under Camp Obumbler taxes are going up for those making over $42k.

  191. Darrell says:

    184….ok..that’s what I thought…and this is the part of the state that keeps getting under polled in these VA polls. VA stays red.

  192. Mark says:

    176 Andrew, Please redo the numbers with +4 Dem…

  193. Llarry from Longview says:

    #190, I think it is fair to ask him to explain his methodology

  194. Tina says:

    Chekote – Socialism and the flip flops on tax cuts need to be hammered over and over.

  195. Polaris says:

    #190 I believe Benni is honest.

    Benni could you recheck your Ohio figure to be sure you used 2006 rather than 2004 as your model.

    This isn’t thinking that Benni has a dog in this; it’s only a matter of checking everyone’s work.

    -Polaris

  196. rdelbov says:

    Can I say while I like folks saying “puma” effect when I 1st suggested that Hillary voters would not show up in polls I called it the “Hillary effect”

    For those not up on it when you see polls where 28% of Clinton supporters saying they will not vote for Obama and then in a state like Indy or PA Clinton got +50 % of the vote there is no way Obama gets 90% of D’s. No way. These folks are not polling.

    Hillary effect that’s it

  197. bartman says:

    You know, I’ve never asked for anything here but can I get a new thread with a headline that reads:

    TITANS WHIP INDY, STILL UNDEFEATED!

    How about it?

  198. Andrew says:

    I’m not saying BENNI did anything wrong, I’m just wondering where these numbers are coming from.

  199. knova_red says:

    196-I think that he is honest too. He is about as neutral an observer as we have here. His credentials and identity prove that.

  200. Polaris says:

    #197 Maybe but I am not counting on it. In my models most hard-core Hillary dems that can’t or won’t vote Obama stay home. That said, I wouldn’t mind being mistaken in that regard.

    -Polaris

  201. Tina says:

    BOR seeking LA Times tape on Khalidi.

  202. Bobby says:

    RCP was down to 6.8, now back up to 7.2

  203. Phil says:

    Good luck with that BOR. Frankly, O’Reilly has been kind of indifferent to an Obama presidency. He kind of laughed at the mention of the the imposition of the fairness doctrine that somehow Barack and his friends won’t do that. Boy, is he in for a shock. He’s being very naive throughout the campaign. And he thinks he has a shot at getting that tape from the LA Times? Like I said, how naive can you get?

  204. Tina says:

    Oh no, not another Politico.com article:

    McCain advisor calls Palin a nut job.

    Since they reported this, it must be Right.

  205. chris says:

    during the PA Dem primary:

    Pollster John Zogby: “Sounds like a radio station’s call letters, but remember WECM – white, ethnic, Catholic, men. That is what put Clinton into her double digit lead here in Pennsylvania…

    Will these guys now support Obama when they have already rejected him? Seems like Mac will win this group easily.

  206. Tina says:

    Phil, I editoralized it that he was trying to get it. he just mentioned it last night on his show, that he contacted the LA Times.

    I am only watching Hannity colmes and Greta program now on Faux News.

  207. Darrell says:

    New ARG national numbers:

    Obama 50
    McCain 45

    But the party ID breakdown is D +8

    D 41, R 33, I 26

  208. Tina says:

    Faux will lose a lot of viewers, wait a minute they have been losing viewers for a whiel.

  209. Chekote says:

    I can’t relly blame the pollsters for adjusting their weights in the Democrats’ favor. After all, we have had months of coverage of the Obama big crowds. When 100k show up, a pollster would take that into consideration. Maybe the American people are tired of the war. Don’t want to spend money there anymore. It is hard for any Republican to run as a fiscal conservative after all the spending they did. But who knows? We may be pleasantly surprised. Remember how 2004 was supposed to be all about the war only to find out that moral values was the top issue? In 2006, 18,000 was the difference that put Pelosi in charge.

  210. Phil says:

    Tina, I hear ya. I watch very little of FOX anymore. I hsven’t watched the panal of “all stars” in a couple of weeks since they pronounced the election over. Really, Fox is more like CNN every day. Maybe they fear the wrath of the one.

  211. MDefl says:

    Remember, my source in PA has consistently maintained that BO’s lead is 4 to 6%. Remember, my source is a Dem!!!

  212. Pino says:

    Ok with SUSA internals and 2006 exit polls for OH is 46.7O 47.4M, and with 2004 exit polls 43.9O 50.2M. Benni has 43.9O 51.9M.

    Pino

  213. CK MacLeod says:

    #205 – Isn’t it great to have a site like Politico.com, where the Imperial Court Eunuch’s can augment their whispering campaigns against upstarts from the sticks?

  214. Tina says:

    Yeah, their coverage is horrible. I can not comment on CNN or PMS.

  215. bio mom says:

    Good grief Bobby. That RCP average now includes the absurd Pew +14. Get a grip.

  216. Tina says:

    Remember, we have pull outs from VA and CO, and I suspect FL.

  217. Liberal Chris says:

    #174 Absolutely the pollsters could have the wrong likely voter models. I wouldn’t call their model a “guess” though because that makes it sound like they pick the model out of a hat.

    I think it’s pretty revealing that no pollsters show the numbers BENNI is throwing out there. i.e. none of the professionals buys his model. that certainly doesn’t mean he’s dishonest and it doesn’t even mean he’s wrong. I just think it’s very, very unlikely that all of the professionals have models that are so far off that such a sustained and significant obama lead across many, many polls is simply an error. This would represent an unprecedented polling failure. Possible? of course. I wouldn’t want to be in a position where I had to hope for that.

  218. Chuck Schick says:

    Here’s the deal with the Obama “tax cuts”…

    best case scenario, he’s going to extend the Bush tax cuts for the bottom 4 brackets (up to ~162k for individuals IIRC), and then call them a cut.

    More probable scenario- feign surprise how bad things are and allow top 4 brackets to expire ahead of time, raising taxes on everyone making 32k and up, like he voted to do back in March.

  219. Originalist says:

    McCain within 2 in Gallup Traditional!!

  220. Andrew says:

    This ARG poll is promising. If you adjust to the 38/35/27 D+3 model, it’s only +1.15 for Obama, and that’s including his 53/41 lead in independents. If you change that to, say 50/50, and give each party’s candidate the remaining undecideds from his party (a little generous to Obama, honestly), you get:

    Obama 49.0
    McCain 51.0

    That’s a good result!

  221. Originalist says:

    49-47 Obama in Gallup Traditional. Mcain +2, Obama -1. Great news.

  222. bio mom says:

    I am not so naive to believe that 100,000 people just on their own decided to show up to hear the Messiah in Denver. Not a chance. All of this is orchestrated by the maestro David Axelrod. What does amaze me is that the usually cynical sophisticates buy this nonsens hook, line, and sinker.

  223. marco says:

    Chekote,

    Did Liberal Chris follow you over from Poli?

  224. Ponz says:

    Gallup expanded: Obama 51 (-2), Mac 44(+1)

  225. Liberal Chris says:

    #182 I have zero credentials. But neither does BENNI. Posting on this website for a really long time does not make him an expert.

    BENNI is arguing against every professional pollster in the country at this point. and he’s not arguing at the margins, either — he’s basically saying that all of them are off by an average of 5 to 10 percent. I mean, it strains credulity. It makes Dewey defeats Truman look like a rounding error.

  226. Phil says:

    That is good news indeed!

  227. Chekote says:

    Tina

    The GOP establishment is afraid of Sarah. They saw what she did in Alaska. This is why so many are jumping ship to Obama and blaming her as the reason for doing. They want to pin a Mac loss on Palin. They think this will prevent her from running in 2012. The reality is that she will be the first woman POTUS. In four years, she will be better versed in foreign policy matters. The inexperience argument cannot be made. Palin is the future of the party.

  228. Sean says:

    Go Sarah go!! And we’ll take Mac too, especially to deny Obama…

  229. Brutus says:

    Last night there were comments that the tingler and ogreman seemed depressed and less than enthusiastic.

    Some tied it to an impending Drudge headline. Anything to that other than maybe some bad clams casino.

  230. Chekote says:

    Did Liberal Chris follow you over from Poli?

    Comment by marco

    I never respond to his posts. I actually skip them. So, no, I don’t think he followed me here.

  231. Tina says:

    All we need is Acroso or whatever his name was (sorry I have not been to the PP site in months).

  232. Bobby says:

    Bio Mom,

    I know, it doesn’t matter, I was surprised that it got as low as +6.8.

  233. Polaris says:

    #208 Those are terrific numbers for Mac in the ARG for a D+8 poll. Could someone get the internals on that new ARG poll?

    Liberal Chris,

    Your entire argument seems to rest on the notion that the pollsters are some wise men on the mountain that somehow know better than us.

    They don’t! Point in fact DrJay, AIN, and myself all have far more experience and education when it comes to statistical modeling than most of the public pollsters. Quite frankly most public pollsters are little more than frauds and snake-oil salesmen.

    In this case a critical mass of pollsters have been sold a certain turnout scenario based on a media frenzy and genuine primary exitment based around the Iraq War that is completely off the table now.

    It was IRAQ and not the economy that got the youth vote out in the spring and IMHO it’s why the youth vote isn’t showing up now.

    -Polaris

  234. RyanH says:

    Great news in Gallup! Also, Liberal Chris a more likely explanation would be something that Polaris has talked about, the enthusiasm gap. Pollsters are getting more Obama supporters who are willing to be polled because they so passionately support The One. Those less enthusiastic supporters of MCcain might not be so willing to take the time to poll.

    Some pollsters like SUSA just let those numbers be and report them as is and you get high democratic samples. For those that weigh the samples they are still impacted by the fact that all their samples seem to show a much higher dem. percentage and they thus reassess their weighting.

    Remember, very few pollsters predicted the turnout in 2006 was only D+3. Many polls had that number much higher. The difference was sufficient to save a few Republican seats.

  235. Sean says:

    Dow up 270

  236. bio mom says:

    Chekote, I think your analysis vis a vis Palin and the establishment Republicans is correct.

  237. Polaris says:

    #222 49-47 Gallup Trad LV is AWESOME. Mac can (and IMO will) win if that is the Gallup LV going into election day.

    -Polaris

  238. Brin says:

    If Mac does end up winning this RCP is not off the hook. I consider them to be right there with the pollsters this year. They refused to have a quality check on their polls and have been cited and quoted by the MSM. Therefore, they are a big part of this. Had they stood up and said “We are rejecting polls that have a Party ID at…..” then this would have put more pressure on the pollsters to reexamine what they are doing.

    They rejected PPP and Strategic vision but in this eleciton cycle those firms are hardly partisan in comparison.

  239. Andrew says:

    The AIG Internals are posted on their site.

    D – 83/13 Obama
    R – 89/7 McCain
    I – 53/41 Obama

    And this I number is suspect, so in actuality we’re looking at a McCain lead from this poll!

  240. Ice Cream Man says:

    Is Gallup showing the effect of the recent Obama tape?

  241. Polaris says:

    #235 Very good RyanH,

    I am feeling lazy this afternoon. Would one of you like to tell Liberal Chris the story of Everytown, USA and how the Mayoral election between Joe Schmoe and Juliet Twinkletoes shocked the world?

    It’s a good story that I think Liberal Chris needs to hear. It involves a common error in political polling called ‘overparticipation’.

    -Polaris

  242. Tina says:

    Probably too soon to capture the redistribution in chief’s comments.

  243. bartman says:

    Liberal Chris,

    Why do you care? If we’re all drinking Kool-Aid it should be none of your concern. I don’t find satisfaction going to KOS trying to convince the hatemongers that they are idiots. I’m so confident that I’m right that I realize their is not enough brainpower over there to comprehend a logical argument.

    Basically your waisting your life. Enjoy your delusions with your deluded friends and quit worrying about people who live in the real world. The capitalists on this sight have been and will be taking care of you as long as we keep electing quasi-conservatives. So go enjoy the day.

    Besides, if you won’t leave how can we miss you.

  244. mystery says:

    What is this *+7.2 * on Drudge’s upper left corner?…O’s lead?

  245. Howard Dean says:

    Do NOT tell acroso about this site!

  246. Tina says:

    ICM it only really hit over the weekend, but fully yesterday, and its still going on today given the coments of Obumbler and Gaffe.

  247. Pino says:

    Polaris #234,

    internals for the ARG national poll are:
    Obanma 83D/7R/53I, and McCain 13D/89R/41I. If weighted with 2006 exit polls they give 47.8O 47.6M.

    Pino

  248. phoenixrisen says:

    #222 – Mac only down by 2 in Gallup’s traditional? Anyone know their internals on this model? Hmmm, I’ve seen in a few polls that Obama is bleeding support more than McCain is gaining it. This tells me that people are becoming undecided again. Joe the Plumber/Redistribution is having a BIG EFFECT in the battlegrounds along with the 527s hitting on Wright/Ayers/ACORN/Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae. I like how things are trending. Now just a few more points and then Frank will be able to go drink a whole lot when a national poll comes out showing McCain in the lead 🙂

  249. Tina says:

    The PP site is only good because of KH contributions to it.

  250. Howard Dean says:

    It’s the RCP avg

  251. Originalist says:

    Gallup is spinning it that the race only “narrowed slightly.” They are doing some serious CYA here trying to suggest that race is still “stable” given previous result totals. I’m sorry. McCain gaining 3 pts in all three of their models in one day is not a “slight” gain–that’s a surge!

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/111568/Gallup-Daily-Presidential-Race-Narrows-Slightly.aspx

  252. GPO says:

    Do not tell right wing yahoo about this site either

  253. Bobby says:

    Hmm…okay maybe McCain is not up 9 points and ahead in PA. However, he could be up 2-3 points and ahead in PA…. Just food for thought…

  254. Polaris says:

    #245 It’s the current RCP average (which is garbage)

    -Polaris

  255. Polaris says:

    #252 Gallup is trying to avoid the taste of crow in the morning.

    -Polaris

  256. KeyBored says:

    Tina

    Obama tax cut calculator
    http://taxcut.barackobama.com/?source=sem-pm-fts-tx-search-us&gclid=CMTg05m2ypYCFQITswodoGY_xw

    Families making less than 250k or individuals making less than 200k will not have taxes raised. Full plan can be downloaded from above site.

    kb

  257. Polaris says:

    #258 Not according to Sen Biden. He’s now saying 150,000 (and yes it’s on tape)!

    -Polaris

  258. Phil says:

    Great, key boring. Just what we needed.

  259. RobD says:

    Kb,
    Will the O man allow Bush’s tax cuts to expire in 2010? If so does that calculator factor in all the brackets that will revert to the old values?

  260. Hugh says:

    when will idp be out

  261. Brutus says:

    Either kb has been banned or he is in a state of suspended animation,

    just like his Rays.

    I suspect he’s looking for voodoo specialists over in Miami to hex the Phighting Phils.

  262. Originalist says:

    Well someone forgot to send the memo to Joe Biden, kb.

  263. geauxlsu says:

    The Gallup headline is that the race tightens “Slightly”. A 3 point movement overnight in all 3 voter models seems like a pretty good shift. The problem is tomorrow it will probably be back up 5 pts. Do we know what his party breakdown is?

  264. CK MacLeod says:

    Closing from 7 pts (the high) to 2 in 4 days in the Gallup LV Traditional implies either that yesterday’s polling produced a Mac tied day or better, or that the last two or three days have been equally close and an outlier has dropped off.

    Do we have any single day results for the Gallup LV Trade that would allow us to reverse engineer the numbers with greater accuracy? And are any of you trying to reverse engineer the moving averages using a formula or algorithm, or are you just finagling a spreadsheet?

  265. Ice Cream Man says:

    261
    Yes CONGRESS will let the Bush tax cuts expire.

  266. bio mom says:

    TIPP will be +4 today. They were interviewed on Fox News today and said so.

  267. Chuck Schick says:

    Families making less than 250k or individuals making less than 200k will not have taxes raised. Full plan can be downloaded from above site.

    kb

    And Obama vowed to filibuster any wiretap law with telco immunity and stick to public financing.

    He lied.

  268. Originalist says:

    #265, I would love to see the one day total from 10/27 in that Gallup traditional. Can you say Obama Tape Effect?

  269. Tina says:

    KB – get with the program. Obama says $200,000 and you can link to it because its in his ad (I gave you the name of the ad).

    Biden says less than $150,000 – others here have given you the speech which happened in PA.

  270. Tina says:

    So, you are either in a funk because of your team, or Obama Bin Biden have snuck one under you.

  271. KeyBored says:

    RobD

    I don’t know how his plan if affectd by the Bush plan, or McCain’s plan for that matter.

    See Obama tax plan for details.

    http://www.barackobama.com/taxes/

    kb

  272. cheesehead says:

    #237: bio mom, Chekote, Tina

    The Prowler fingers Romney and his Palin-hating, “Romney in exile” allies that have infested McCain’s own campaign. And, as we know, they’ve infested NRO, too.

    Now I know why Mac and Huck hate the guy.

    http://spectator.org/archives/2008/10/27/post-defeat-planners

  273. Good Captain says:

    At the rate Politico is reporting McCain’s campaign retreat, we will here that he has staked everything on the vote in Guam. Sheeesh!

    ;>)

  274. Ice Cream Man says:

    More on Bush tax cuts being allowed to expire.

    Obama’s Tax Increases on “the Middle Class” [Peter Kirsanow]

    We too often ignore the fact that Obama’s policies would allow the Bush tax cuts to lapse, which would significantly increase taxes on individuals earning $25,000, $50,000, and $75,000 a year. And his plan to lift the cap on Social Security taxes will directly increase taxes on individuals earning far less than $250,000 a year. Moreover, Obama’s tax increase on capital gains will ensnare many who are “middle class” income-earners. Obama intends to tax the heck out of everyone, including the “middle class.” Here’s a very good, common sense piece from the American Thinker.

  275. KeyBored says:

    It aint over till it’s over.

    GO RAYS!

    kb

  276. KeyBored says:

    Brutus

    The gods sent rain to fall on the evil Phillies.

    kb

  277. Polaris says:

    #273 Barack Obama is a liar. His own runningmate just admitted that they’d be raising taxes on those over 150,000USD. We have it on tape.

    Barack Obama has lied about many things (like public financing). Why do you believe him now?

    -Polaris

  278. CK MacLeod says:

    Comment by Good Captain — 10/28/2008 @ 1:32 pm

    Just in from Obama HQ troll-wire: “You must be wingnut Kool-Aid drinker if you believe McCain has a flippin prayer in the great almost-state of Guam! Prepare to be assimilated! Resistance is futile!”

  279. KeyBored says:

    Polaris

    I don’t see any lies. I see upset McCain followers looking for anything they can spin to their advantage.

    kb

  280. MartianLaw says:

    KB – Is Bud Seelig going to wear a Rays’ jersey to the game with his name on it? So far, he is the MVP of your team.

  281. Brin says:

    I lived in Guam for two years. Overall, it would go Obama if it could. They are great people with their own culture but they are total followers of Hawaii and California ideals.

  282. MartianLaw says:

    KB- why are the Phillies evil? They are a very good team, as are the Rays. At least our fans travel to Tampa . . . I mean Clearwater. . . . I mean wherever the hell the Rays play. Istill haven’t seen a Rays fan in the stadium.

  283. Polaris says:

    #281 Really? Did or did not Barack Obama promise to take public financing if John McCain did?

    Did or did not Barak Obama promise to veto any Telecom will with Wiretap immunities in it?

    Did or did not Joe Biden just admit today that Barak Obama would increase takes for those making over 150,000 in contradiction to Obama’s own stated plan?

    The man (Barak Obama) is a liar.

    -Polaris

  284. mpthompson says:

    Hmmm, there are more Poli people hanging out here these days than on Poli itself.

  285. KeyBored says:

    MartianLaw

    If he can hit off those Philly pitchers, sign him up. geez.

    kb

  286. Polaris says:

    #286 I think that says a lot about the state of Polipundit.

    -Polaris

  287. Chuck Schick says:

    KB-

    Obama did or did not call the banking committee “his committee” during his ego trip across Europe, when in fact he’s not on the banking committee, any of its subcommittees, let alone act as a chair?

    Obama lies when he needs to. He’s Bill Clinton with more class and slightly better taste in women.

  288. KeyBored says:

    Polaris

    If Biden said that, it conflicts with Obama’s stated tax policy. That doesn’t make Obama a liar, it makes Biden someone who doesn’t always get his facts right – no surprise there.

    kb

  289. Polaris says:

    #289 This is probably the high water mark for Obama in state polls, and Mac only needs to win MT by one vote ultimately. I’ll have a fisk shortly.

    -Polaris

  290. dblaikie says:

    Well fellow posters, we now the first pollster who will sacrifice their career and prof. integrity at the altar of Obama. Andrew Kohut of Pew just did that. Talk about a shamless outlier and then in the face of all the real evidence to the contary to say, “McCain appears to be in a downward spiral.” I wonder what flavor of koolaid Mr. or is Dr. Kohut likes?

  291. Polaris says:

    #289 That isn’t a poll, it’s a MSNBC newswire. They CLAIM a poll of Montana like you say, but no internals are supplied.

    Get me a link to that poll and I’ll examine it.

    -Polaris

  292. Mose says:

    289 – the link to the Mason-Dixon poll in Montana also says that new MD polls show a 47-47 tie in North Carolina and Obama up by 11 in NH (50-39).

    I’m not liking any of those polls too much.

  293. Keystone says:

    Obama knew Rev Wright for 20 years and didn’t know he was racist?

    Does anyone believe this?

  294. AlN says:

    Liberal Chris,
    BENNI may not have any credentials, but I do! I have an M.S. in Statistics from the University of Wisconsin, and I now teach statistics at Indiana University. I’ve even worked parttime (20 years ago) for CBS in poll-watching. What BENNI is doing (re-weighting the polls according to a more realistic partisan mix) makes a LOT of sense to me. The bottom line: IF Obama gets his Youth Tsumani, then we lose and we’ll admit it. But if he doesn’t then re-weighting these polls is the best way to have a realistic look at reality.

    That being said, BENNI, I agree with Andrew — I don’t know where your numbers are coming from! Are you SURE you’re not using 2004 numbers? For 2006, there are partisan mix numbers available in any state where there was a statewide election — such as Ohio or Virginia. For these states, you don’t have to “estimate” them from 2004.

    So here is what I got for that SUSA Ohio poll:
    My 2006 partisan mix: 40D/37R/23I
    Internals: Dems 81% BO, 14% JMac
    Reps 85% JMac, 14% BO
    Inds 45% JMac, 43% BO

    JMac= (.85*.37)+(.14*.40)+(.45*.23)
    = .474 = 47.4%
    BO = (.14*.37)+(.81*.40)+(.43*.23)
    = .467 = 46.7%

    That’s a 0.7% lead for McCain — not that 5% lead you’re getting! Where am I (or you) going wrong?

    By the way, I have to apologize! Earlier this morning I reported that I had calculated this poll to MAC +9%. Somehow, in my spreadsheet, when I typed in “Ohio”, I must have mistyped it and thus my Excel lookup function referred to the partisan mix from the state alphabetically before Ohio — North Dakota.

  295. Chuck Schick says:

    Bill Clinton also promised a middle class tax cut in 1992.

    Well what happened? He lied. And 1994 was a bloodbath for Dems.

    Anyone notice the deficit? Didnt make too many headlines did it? Well it was the first fiscal year 100% under Democrat control in well over a decade.

    And it was the worst deficit in history- almost TRIPLING the deficit the GOP Congress ended on.

    Anyone think Obama’s going to run record deficits that dwarf the GOPs to maintain tax cuts is smoking more powerful stuff than I get.

  296. KeyBored says:

    Chuck Schick

    I don’t think people care what Obama said about banking committees, but they do care about failed banks – happening now with rep administration.

    kb

  297. MikeKS says:

    289 — no wonder we’re putting ads up there.

  298. Polaris says:

    #295 I’m not going to sweat those polls until I can read them

    I normally respect Mason-Dixon, but some of their latest polls have been somewhat lacking (not only in partisan weights but wrong regional sampling).

    -Polaris

  299. CK MacLeod says:

    Pew, something smells.

  300. dmarie says:

    I haven’t studied the Obama tax policy but could the discrepancy be in joint filing vs single filing?

  301. Polaris says:

    KB,

    Yeah sure. This from the man who took the highest by far PAC money per year from Fannie Mae….and thus covered for Fannie Mae and the expanded CRA which caused this mess.

    Yeah. Sure.

    -Polaris

  302. DWu says:

    CK,

    LOL. 🙂 Second best post to I’veGotaBracelet’s above.

  303. MikeKS says:

    MD has been good historically. If they say it’s tied in NC, i’m inclined to believe them until proven otherwise.

  304. Polaris says:

    Crap. It’s the dreaded 2pm EDT hour and the market has been going down and is now only up about 150.

    -Polaris

  305. KeyBored says:

    MartianLaw 284

    just kidding of course.

    kb

  306. Good Captain says:

    FYI – A new thread opened.

  307. Ponz says:

    BTW, those Mason-Dixon polls are somewhat dated (10/23-10/25 in NC & NH, 10/22-10/24 in Montana)

  308. Polaris says:

    #306 I’m not. Mason-Dixon is a good outfit with a good history, true BUT lately their polls haven’t been up to M-D standards not only in partisan weights but regional sampling as well.

    I won’t accept any poll this year until I can fisk it.

    -Polaris

  309. Llarry from Longview says:

    I think its classic that Benni was exposed as a total fraud …

  310. Frank says:

    Frank said (that’s me):

    “Brandon,

    When you get the exact numbers for Rasmussen, please let us know.

    Staying at 51 – 46 could mean an improvement for Obama up to 0.91% or down no more than 0.08%

    McCain may have gone down no more than 0.46% or up by 0.53%

    Current trends (???)

    October 23 51.66 – 44.83% Obama +6.83%
    October 24 51.80 – 44.80% Obama +7.00%
    October 25 52.32 – 44.42% Obama +7.90%
    October 26 52.46 – 44.00% Obama +8.46%
    October 27 50.58 – 45.96% Obama +4.62%

    If the numbers stay relatively static, then the day coming on is the same as a big Obama day from +7.00% to +7.90%.

    That would be disappointing.

    Time will tell.

    Frank

    Comment by Frank — 10/28/2008 @ 8:44 am

    Friends,

    October 23 51.66 – 44.83% Obama +6.83%
    October 24 51.80 – 44.80% Obama +7.00%
    October 25 52.32 – 44.42% Obama +7.90%
    October 26 52.46 – 44.00% Obama +8.46%
    October 27 50.58 – 45.96% Obama +4.62%
    October 28 50.89 – 46.01% Obama +4.88%

    Observations:

    McCain gained ever so slightly … but his gain was opposed to a bad McCain day rolling off the track. We’ll have to see if the 46% is arbitrarily high based on an “outlier” yesterday.

    Obama gained approximately the amount of his polling from 25 to the 26th.

    Let’s see what happens tomorrow and especially Thursday when the big McCain day rolls off.

    Frank

  311. gaGOP says:

    There is some really suspicious stuff going on in the market every day around 2-3pm and its more than the standard witching hour. I’m not much for conspiracy theories but it is starting to look pretty deliberate to me.

  312. Polaris says:

    #310 Wait….I think we may have seen those polls. You’re right those are dated polls.

    -Polaris

  313. KeyBored says:

    Polaris

    Unlike McCain, Obama took no pac money in campaign. and he didn’t spend it on clothes, makeup, and hairstylists.

    kb

  314. Originalist says:

    #298–exactly. I predict that IF The One gets elected he will give a speech within 100 days that will looks something like this: “I know I promised a middle-class tax cut, but now after reviewing the financial peril the last 8 years of the Bush Administartion has left this country in, record deficits blah, blah, blah we just can’t afford it.” That’s pretty much what Clinton said in ’93.

  315. Polaris says:

    #316 His campaign also broke credit card laws by turning off the security systems on his donations sites. The fact is near as I can tell, Obama is probably running one of the most corrupt (fiscally) campaigns in modern political history.

    -Polaris

  316. Polaris says:

    #319 You also need to factor in what it looks like after the Bush Tax cuts are allowed to expire…and that’s if Obama keeps his word which is a questionable proposition at best.

    -Polaris

  317. Ice Cream Man says:

    Remember what Rove has said a number of times This week voters will be reexmaing Obama and reconsidering their position as to how they are going to vote.

  318. Phil says:

    Nope, no PAC money, just a bunch of foreign money, money from nonexistent made up names, and then the credit card scams.

    Really kgb, please go away. Spend time worshipping the one over at Daily Kos. You’ll be happier and I know we will.

  319. MikeKS says:

    kb — stop posting propaganda. most people under obama will get a tax increase and you know it. you honestly think the marxist obama believes in tax cuts for ANYONE? he’s basically admitted, as have dems in congress, they want everyone making the same. in fact, there is a proposal for the gov’t to take over your 401Ks and distribute the money evenly throughout all 401ks.

  320. Pino says:

    AIN #297,

    same numbers as mines (look post #213).

    Pino

  321. MikeKS says:

    316 — You are naive and a moron. They did spend it on that stuff, including parties, columns, etc…4 million worth. A lot more than $150,000 that’s going to be given to charity. You really are terrible.

  322. Phil says:

    what MikeKS said

  323. KeyBored says:

    give it to charity? You mean, donate it to the RNC?

    🙂

    kb

  324. Sharon says:

    Like McCain, don’t discount our Rays yet. They too are scrapers.

  325. Polaris says:

    Interesting. Stocks (Dow) going up. Looks like some institutional buying. I expected the reverse…still a long way to go before the closing bell…

    -Polaris

  326. Polaris says:

    #327 I guess you do have a sick crush/fascination with Gov Palin. Fact is nothing illegal or unethical was done w/r/t Palin’s cloting allowance. Can’t say the same about Obama after turning off his credit card verifiers.

    -Polaris

  327. Chekote says:

    It was IRAQ and not the economy that got the youth vote out in the spring and IMHO it’s why the youth vote isn’t showing up now.

    -Polaris

    Excellent point! Let’s start rumors that Obama will reinstate the draft.

  328. KeyBored says:

    Polaris

    People from McCain campaign call Palin a “Diva” and a “Whack job”. They know her best…

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5032745.ece

    kb

  329. Chekote says:

    Do NOT tell acroso about this site!

    Comment by Howard Dean

    Amen.

  330. Originalist says:

    #332–yeah, kb. A British newspaper report from anonymous “McCain aides”. That’s a pretty reliable source!

  331. Polaris says:

    #334 Agreed. I think there are some disgrunted people within the Mac campaign spreading them deliberately. Rumor (and it’s only rumor) has it that Romney is behind this.

    -Polaris

  332. chris says:

    Well, consider this example: Elizabeth Edwards – wife of former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards and currently a health care advisor to Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign – isn’t 100% behind the Democratic nominee’s health care plan.

    http://www.dcexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/YeasandNays/Elizabeth_Edwards_not_that_fond_of_Obamas_health_care_plan.html