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Obama Opens Up 14% Lead In OH

Quinnipiac University dumped out three new polls this morning that give Barack Obama leads in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with the lead in Ohio surging to an unbelievable 14%.

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Quinnipiac)
Barack Obama (D) 52%
John McCain (R) 38%

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Quinnipiac)
Barack Obama (D) 49%
John McCain (R) 44%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac)
Barack Obama (D) 53%
John McCain (R) 40%

These polls were done October 16-21 among 1433 likely voters in FL, 1360 likely voters in OH, and 1425 likely voters in PA. The only other poll of note this morning is Scott Rasmussen’s morning rush hour poll for the Presidential and Senatorial races in Texas.

PRESIDENT – TEXAS (Rasmussen)
John McCain (R) 54%
Barack Obama (D) 44%

PRESIDENT – TEXAS (Rasmussen)
John Cornyn (R-inc) 55%
Rick Noriega (D) 40%

These polls were done October 21st among 500 likely voters.

This was the exact text of a “Breaking News” email I had in my inbox this morning from Fox News.

PHILLIES ROUT RAYS 3-2 IN GAME 1 OF WORLD SERIES

A 3-2 score is a rout?

I finally had to break out the gloves this morning…just too damn cold outside in the morning….

Posted by Dave at 7:50 am
Filed under: 2008 President,2008 US Senate | Comments (254)

254 Responses to “Obama Opens Up 14% Lead In OH”

  1. Tim Van says:

    Don’t believe it !

    http://www.obamacrimes.com/

  2. marco says:

    In other news, Quinnipiac University is investigating massive crack smoking among students and teachers involved with their Polling Institute!!

  3. jones says:

    Is there malpractice for pollsters.

    If these polls were true, McCain would be in Cali- where he had a better chance.

  4. rdelbov says:

    Its what called the standing room only technique. The pollsters want to start a stampede towards Obama.

    trash these polls

    in my opinion

  5. Middle of the Roader says:

    Zogby:

    Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 52.2%, McCain 40.3%

    Obama’s base is solid; McCain’s is showing cracks

    UTICA, New York – Democrat Barack Obama has slowly built a 12-point lead over Republican John McCain, consolidating support among young voters, Hispanics, and independent voters while McCain’s support, even among his Republican base, is fading heading down the stretch, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.

  6. Jim says:

    Did you catch this mornings Big Ten Battleground poll for Indiana? BHO 51% JSM 41%

    The most-recent previous poll that RealClear had for Indiana was over two weeks ago.

  7. jeffp says:

    Anyone see the the BIG 10 Battleground polls yet? Every state has obama with a tenpoint lead. OMG…These polls are getting out of control. People are so stupid to think this race is over with all this news. Too many polls not doing their job. I am so angry at this and the MSM.

  8. Sam says:

    For the Phillies, given their history, for the World Series, 3-2 is a rout.

  9. dblaikie says:

    On the unaided ballot with Battleground it is Obama + 2 for Oct. 23.

  10. Ice Cream Man says:

    Big Ten Polls

    Illinois Obama 61% McCain 32%
    Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
    Iowa Obama 52% McCain 39%
    Michigan Obama 58% McCain 36%
    Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
    Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
    Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
    Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%

    Huh???

  11. joe six pack says:

    What is the date on the Big Ten polls.

  12. joe six pack says:

    Polaris-

    I BG is still +2 for Obama, does that mean we had a pro-mac day last night? Or just status quo?

  13. jones says:

    What’s the planet of the Big 10 polls?

  14. Polaris says:

    #12 Status quo on BG. I’ll take it.

    -Polaris

  15. Jim says:

    Maybe this is a MSM strategy to get Republicans to give up. Well, it may just backfire and instill dem complacency so they stay home on 11/4.

  16. Tim says:

    Ohio is under five points, either way. Too close to call.

    Who is this Big 10 bunch, anyway?

  17. Polaris says:

    From below:

    Good ol’ Quinn with their student interviewers…..

    Jimminy Christmas….this people have no clue what they are doing. Obviously they’ve taken the heat for explicitly oversampled D polls…..go take a gander as these partisan distributions:

    Ohio:

    D27.90/R18.94/I53.16

    Ind: 50 Obama/37 Mac

    Florida:

    D29.73/R30.27/I40.00

    Ind: 51 Obama/39 Mac

    Pennsylvania:

    D34.75/R30.51/I34.74

    Ind: 55Obama/35Mac

    Suuure…whatever you say Quinn. Yes, over 40 percent of these three swing states are Independant voters.

    Riiiight……

    It’s more likely that these interviewers got snowed with false-flag respondants.

    Don’t their professors actually review this data before they submit it????

    -Polaris

  18. Polaris says:

    #13 Whatever planet it is, it isn’t this one.

    -Polaris

  19. Polaris says:

    #5 Zogby as we discussed last night is having methedological issues because he is showing demographic data and trends….EXTREME trends (not just in the top line) that no other track is showing.

    Zogby has a sampling problem.

    -Polaris

  20. Middle of the Roader says:

    Quinnipiac’s numbers are almost as large as the BigTen for the most crucial states, Ohio and Florida (I don’t McCain can win without both). I do have doubts the Obama lead is that large, the the Morning Call tracker seems to confirm the Penn. numbers:

    Ohio Big10 Battleground Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12
    Pennsylvania Big10 Battleground Obama 52, McCain 41 Obama +11

    Ohio Quinnipiac Obama 52, McCain 38 Obama +14
    Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13

    Pennsylvania Morning Call Obama 52, McCain 42 Obama +10

  21. Polaris says:

    #20 Which means they are both garbage. This is basically a MoE race. I already fisked the Quinn polls. WAY too many Indie voters and suspicous polling indies at that.

    Believe what you want MoR, but these polls are just wrong. Remember that Obama is only up 2 in PA according to his own numbers (which are far better than any public poll).

    -Polaris

  22. Sharon says:

    I understand polls like this are bogus but I got to tell you, when you see this garbage everywhere you look it gets a little discouraging to come to this site and see that someone would actually post this crap to see.

  23. Polaris says:

    Another sure fire indication is this (for Big 10). Properly done, Penn should be about 5-7 points “bluer” than Ohio and both should be “bluer” than Indiana.

    Big 10 seems to have methedological issues.

    -Polaris

  24. joe six pack says:

    The entire Obama strategy is to create an air of inevitability. And it may be working. Maybe people will not even bother to vote

  25. Ponz says:

    Re: Big 10. A poll that produces virtually identical results in Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, PA cannot be taken seriously.

  26. Ice Cream Man says:

    Todays Ras 52 – 45. +7

  27. Middle of the Roader says:

    I meant Ohio and Penn. Florida will go for McCain. But, Penn. remains the one Blue state McCain is vying for. I thought it was McCain’s internals that showed the Penn race that close, not Obamas?

  28. Andrew says:

    Fyi everyone, the number of Dems sampled for all 3 Quinnipiac polls are much higher than they should be, but Ohio is especially egregious.

    It says Obama 52-38, but if you use the party weights from 2004 and adjust D+3 (Dem+1.5, Rep-1.5) you get Obama up 47-45, which a *12* point difference. To get a 12 point difference, this poll must be at least 15 points too high Dem! Also, it should be noted that with suspicious party IDs like these, it’s likely that an overabundance of Obama fanatics were involved, and thus I believe the actual support for Obama among Ohio D’s is a point or two lower than this. Also, there are 8-10% undecideds remaining which will mostly go to McCain, so if this poll is brought into reality I’d say it would project a 1-2 point McCain win. I’m serious.

  29. Ponz says:

    Did Ras have a good Mac day rolling off? If so, -1 is not too bad.

  30. Brandon says:

    #26. Thats not bad. I’ll have to see the decimal result first, but since an Obama +2 night was rolling off the track, you had to assume he was going to gain. Tomorrow night an Obama 8-9 point night will fall off and we should see tightening again.

  31. Howard Dean says:

    “About 54 percent of voters among those polled say it’s time for someone else to represent them in Congress. About 35 percent say Murtha deserves to be re-elected.”

  32. Chun says:

    Those Ohio numbers seem pretty absurd to me too. I get the feeling Ohio will be a tougher nut to crack than VA for Obama.

  33. Howard Dean says:

    Remember this:

    QUINN surveys are done by their UNIVERSITY STOODINTS!

    Yup, they would NEVER do anything to help Obama.

    Toss

  34. Liam says:

    Goodbye republicans. Anyone who wants real polling analysis, head over to fivethirtyeight.com

    Nate Silver; bona fide genius. Here it’s just people seeing what they want to see.

  35. Howard Dean says:

    BIG 10 are UNIVERSITY polls too.

  36. Polaris says:

    I want to see the decimals too on Ras, but I warned everyone last night to expect a 1 point widening in Ras because a really good Mac night was falling off.

    This isn’t really a suprise and really isn’t movement.

    -Polaris

  37. Polaris says:

    Liam,

    I figureed you were a 538 troll. Let me put it this way: Nate Silver should stick to Baseball. Once a Kossak, always a Kossak.

    -Polaris

  38. Howard Dean says:

    Don’t their professors actually review this data before they submit it????

    -Polaris

    Yes.

    That’s why we get these results!

    Not only is Obama far left like profs, he IS one of them.

  39. Polaris says:

    #27 No, MOR. Obama’s internal number for PA got leaked yesterday (including the LA times). It’s Obama+2 in PA according to Obama’s own numbers.

    -Polaris

  40. Llarry from Longview says:

    It is really disappointing to see those Big Ten numbers, especially because their last polls were so favorable to McCain.

  41. marco says:

    I’ll take these quility polling firms over lib student/teacher projects;

    Ohio

    Ras – Mac +2
    M D – Mac +1

    Florida

    Ras – Mac +1
    M D – Mac +1

  42. hugh says:

    All the same on RAS getting better tomorrow. Without these polls closing they will have their own negative impact on our base. Being even this Sat with last Sat will not imho, get it done. I for one think that the powell endorsement had less to do with the mon thru weds results and more to do with wall to wall ads all weekend for Obama. Particularly the ad on healthcare, which McCain does not have the money to respond to effectively.

    These polls are becoming death by a 1000 cuts. Why doesnt McCain run ads on what happened last time we had a liberal pres, house and senate? 9.5% unemployment, 12% inflation and 21% interest rates believe me it can be far worse than this for mainstreet.

  43. Polaris says:

    Look everyone,

    Feeling defeated and put down is part of the strategy. We all know that the MSM (including the public polls) are actively campaigning for Obama. Treat them as such. Don’t ignore the polls necessarily, but tear them apart and don’t let them tell YOU how this is going to turn out.

    -Polaris

  44. Chun says:

    “No, MOR. Obama’s internal number for PA got leaked yesterday (including the LA times). It’s Obama+2 in PA according to Obama’s own numbers.”

    Didn’t you say yourself not to trust “leaked” internals? What if this is a trick to make McCain campaign in a expensive state he doesn’t have a good chance of winning?

  45. Jim says:

    I doubt that the high Independents figures in these polls mean Independents in the long-term sense. This may be a lot of ad hoc cross-party voting, i.e., Dems who can’t stand the idea of voting for BHO, and Republicans who are disgusted with JSM. I think that people who are going to vote cross party will commonly call themselves Independents while they’re doing that. They don’t want to say they’re a member of the other party just because they’re going to vote cross-party this one time.

  46. Republican Jedi says:

    TICKET SPLITTERS? Yesterday I posted about how I find it odd that the polls seem to still have way too many undecideds. Well today there is another thing that makes me wonder if the polls are off. Some of the polls from the same firms show a congressional republican leading in a particular state by a pretty good margin, then they will have a poll released for the same time period showing a strong lead for Obama, I would assume from the same group of respondents as the number of respondents and the time frame is the same….anyone else think that the ticket splitters are WAY too high? hope that was clear im alittle sleepy this morning.
    I could see it maybe with the supposed anit GOP air, but not with the extreme leftist candidate they are running. Would this be another indication of the Bradley effect? what do you think?

  47. Llarry from Longview says:

    Whats interesting is that the Big Ten poll had much larger sample sizes (and therefore smaller margins of error in their September polls). Could this be that now they’re only getting the “eager” responders?

    # Illinois: N=572. MOE= +/- 4.2
    # Indiana: N=586. MOE= +/- 4.2
    # Iowa: N=586. MOE= +/- 4.2
    # Michigan: N=562. MOE= +/- 4.2
    # Minnesota: N=583. MOE= +/- 4.2
    # Ohio: N=564. MOE= +/- 4.2
    # Pennsylvania: N=566. MOE= +/- 4.2
    # Wisconsin: N=584. MOE= +/- 4.2

  48. Ponz says:

    #44: Mac’s own internals confirm that PA is a close race.

  49. Baiter says:

    Marco, great. If we’re calling Rasmussen credible Obama’s already won VA and PA and as such, the election. I’ll take that

  50. Polaris says:

    #44 True, but consider that this wasn’t leaked by the Obama campaign itself. It was an internal memo that fell into the wrong (or rather right) hands and made in on the radio….the Obama campaign disciplined the leaker but did not dispute the report.

    This is different than a public revalation of an internal which you correctly note can’t be trusted.

    #45 You might think so, but no. There was a lot of split ticket voting in 1984 and 1996 but you did not see a huge surge of Indie voters like you’d espect if your hypothesis were right.

    So no, I don’t buy your notion.

    -Polaris

  51. Polaris says:

    #47 That could well be possible. It’s already a confirmed empirical fact that the “fanatic” effect will badly skew exit polls. However, as Andrew pointed out, this year it may well be affecting all polls as well (considering it’s taking public pollsters several tries to get one response).

    -Polaris

  52. AlN says:

    Liam,
    “538” is a liberal hack site. They report “want they want” far more than this site.

    The Big Ten Battleground polls were done (I believe) by the University of Wisconsin — one of the most liberal colleges in the USA. Thus, Big10 and Quin are very similar, polls done by liberal Obamamaniac students. By the way, at this moment I’m ashamed to admit it, but U-Wisconsin is my alma mater.

  53. Ponz says:

    If the trolls were convinced Obama had this in the bag, they wouldn’t be here. It’s as simple as that.

  54. rdelbov says:

    I have posed this thought for several weeks. The democrats (at least some of them) are motivated as are republicans.

    The indies in the middle are frankly not too thrilled with either side.

    Yet I doubt they will turn the keys to the kingdom(so to speak) over to Obama and the democrats.

    I look for a split election result

  55. Polaris says:

    #49 I wouldn’t say that. It’s a matter of degree. I have severe issues with Rasmussen, but he’s much better than Quinn or Big 10.

    -Polaris

  56. Chun says:

    Hmmm so the question is did they screw up or did they fake a document. Occam’s razor says they screwed up.

  57. Polaris says:

    AIN,

    Don’t worry about it. I got my B.S. in Physics from the Univ of Washington (Seattle) which is Liberal La-La land. I was also a hard-core Dem activist in my youth.

    Of course the USAF straightened that out….

    -Polaris

  58. Ponz says:

    Rasmussen Oct 22- Joe Biden’s comments

    Concerned Obama will be tested?
    Very concerned- 38% (Indies: 36%)
    Somewhat concerned- 21% (Indies: 24%)

    Bigger risk?
    Obama’s inexperience- 48% (Indies: 46%)
    McCain’s age- 44% (Indies: 42%)

    In intl. crisis, who do you have more confidence?
    Obama- 48% (Indies: 44%)
    McCain- 49% (Indies: 50%)

  59. BRUNO says:

    pOLARIS DO YOU THINK THAT EARLY VOTING ARE CONDITIONING MOST OF POLLSTER?
    i MEAN WHEN YOU SEE THAT IN MANY STATES DEM ATRE TO 50-56% AND R TO 27-30% COULD BE THEY BELIEVE THAT REP COULDNT CLOSE THE GAP AND AT LEAST YOU COULD HAVE A DEM + 10…
    If they are wrong i cant immagine they ll become red of shame….its too big wand strong herror…
    sorry (my english)…im working..

  60. bio mom says:

    Ignore all polls. Garbage in=garbage out. That so many put so much faith in them is a testament to the degraded nature of our educational system.

  61. Polaris says:

    #56 I tend to put a great deal of stock in Occam’s razor in cases such as this. I think it was a screw up. Getting GOP voters motivated is the one thing the Obama campaign does NOT want to do.

    -Polaris

  62. Tim says:

    Simple logic dictates that Ohio IS NOT a 14-point race. I truly wish that it was.

    But, we all know better than that. We follow politics. We know that state is close.

  63. Polaris says:

    #59 Not directly no, but I think some of the reports of early voting may be keeping some of the pollsters from reverting to more reasonable models until it’s really too late, which is really sort of stupid. Partial returns indicate very little unless you know exactly where they are coming from and we really don’t.

    -Polaris

  64. Brutus says:

    I’d like to see a final McCain ad that addresses the polls, acorn and fraud. Something that basically tells voters not to be manipulated and go vote.

    Of course, you need to slant it so the DEMs don’t believe it and stay home. Play to their over confidence.

  65. Polaris says:

    #62 Right Tim, but such mistakes make me doubt all their work.

    -Polaris

  66. marco says:

    #49,

    Contrary to you, I didn’t say McCain has won the election. I do beleive that those firms are quality pollsters. I’ll leave the predictions to you Master.

  67. joe six pack says:

    What is Occam’s razor?

  68. Brutus says:

    #67

    Bottom line, the simplest explanation is usually the right explanation.

  69. Brin says:

    So, don’t we eventually get into the New York yankees theory here. What I mean is that the Yankees are the most covered and most hearalded team by the media. ESPN is constantly chided for their constant coverage of them and the Red Sox.

    The problem is that this causes most of America to hate both of these two teams…especially the Yankees and not just hate them, but root for them to lose regardless of who they are playing. They have their fans but they are concentrated in one area and their detractors are everywhere.

    Same with Obama, he has non-stop coverage and the media and himself has saturated us with his supposed greatness. His followers are annoying and fanatical.

    the majority of America will reject that, they always have. We don’t like people knocking on our door and telling us what we should believe.

  70. AF Rico says:

    Polaris,

    God bless the USAF, huh? 🙂

    Alright, I’m going to ask one more time: where are the Rev Wright ads???

    This is like having someone ready to attack your family, and you have a pile of stones, a knife, and a handgun in your home. You decide, out of a misplaced sense of honor that the attacker obviously lacks, to declare the handgun off-limits…what the hell is going on?

    Negative campaigning works. Bringing out the other side’s most negative aspect REALLY works. What will come back at Mac: some b.s. Keating 5 scandal that half the Dems on that panel exonerated Mac for?

    This is crazy.

  71. GPO says:

    Polaris-

    I think inevitablity story is taking hold- that is why in the last two days we have seen leaks from mac campaign about them doing better than Bush did in Ohio, and a leak to Rove about how close PA is.

    Ithink they should release more info about VA- If Obama is spending 20 million + on polling, they know exactly what Mac campaign does. Its not giving them any info they dont already have

  72. Polaris says:

    #71 Maybe, but in a lot of ways the “invitability” meme is also a very fragile one. All it takes is one or two polls that show a tied, MoE, or even Mac ahead to totally destroy it.

    Right now it’s teetering because several polls are getting there. I really think this is the last push by the pollsters to push the inevitable meme (i.e. Nothing to see here) esp in state numbers. Starting this weekend/next week it will tighten considerably.

    -Polaris

  73. Howard Dean says:

    Mac will need something big to push him across the finish line.

    Either a MAJOR Dem endorsement, Oct surprise, Wright attack in the final 2 days.

    Something to give him final momentum.

  74. eric says:

    Folks, It’s silly season. Election day cannot get here soon enough for me. One of two scenarios will occur. Either O wins by the largest margin for a D since LBJ, or we have a very close race, and I’m ready to find out. The psy ops we have seen from the O campaign, the pollsters, and the MSM has been unprecedented, and we are going to find out how effective it’s been. My guess is that R’s will come out in droves, especially if they are as hacked as I am. I have been following this stuff since 1976, and I have never witnessed such garbage. If OH is truly a 14 pt race, then O wins nationally 56/43. Even most D’s would admit this is not reality, but yet here we are. I thought the DWI in ’00, and Rathergate in ’04 were bad, but I actually think the day to day propaganda we have endured this cycle makes those attacks look like juvenile pranks. Is there any integrity left?

  75. Brutus says:

    #73

    “Airline records confirm newborn Barack Obama was on plane from Kenya to Hawaii”

    Something like that.

  76. Starbuck says:

    Everyone,

    We are a little over a week away from the actual election. I just checked the early voting numbers. Where is the big Obama number. Georgia is the only state running ahead of 2004. Am I missing something here???

  77. Darrell says:

    Also, these “Big 10” type pollsters are brand new this year. They have no historic reputation to maintain. They are just polling the big cities in these states to get results like this, then when they are shown to be a joke on election day, they will say, So what! Then next time around they just re-invent themselves with a new name. Its all Psy-Ops. Do not fall for it.

  78. Murphy says:

    RNC should do an ad dating from the moment the Rats took over congress. Where the DOW was, unemployment rate, GNP, interest rates, ALL THE GOOD ECONOMIC DATA. Then comes Barney, Maxine, Harry and Nancy to defend Fannie and Freddie. “If you like what they were able to do to the economy in two years, just wait till they have four!!

  79. Llarry from Longview says:

    I have been asking about this for OVER A MONTH, but no one seems to have an answer … why doesn’t a conservative blog conduct a poll, like Kos does, so that we have some “real” results???

  80. Brin says:

    Checked the BG polling questions. They have the callers estimate how many troops they think have been killed. I’m not sure what they are trying to use this question to gauge.

    However, I think from a statistical polling perspective this automatically introduces a leading question that could heavily skew the results. If the respondants are suppose to be answering questions focusing on the candidates and then we shift them to an emotional perspective and then bring them back to answering questions about the candidates then the response is going to be more emotional and not truely reflective.

  81. Brutus says:

    #79

    No one wants to spend the money to take the poll and publish results.

    It would be spitting in the ocean considering the LSM and its comments.

  82. Brin says:

    Sorry that wasn’t BG but Big Ten questions.

  83. RyanH says:

    Anyone know the topline BG number. The Q polls and the B10 polls are complete crap, but there are some worrisome signs from Zogby and Rasmussen.

  84. greg says:

    I hope Quin is held to account for these polls once the election is over. If their numbers are off by 10+, they shouldn’t be allowed to poll anymore (same goes for any pollster).

  85. Brutus says:

    #82

    Not an expert, but that seems to be a push polling technique.

  86. Brutus says:

    New York Times has another large quarterly loss.

    Lovely news.

  87. RyanH says:

    Based on the media and the polling companies performance in this election, it is quite possible that there are no conceivable circumstances where a Republican could win. The media simply wont let it happen. Hopefully that will begin to sink in to people as they take one last look at this election before they vote.

  88. marco says:

    Eric and Darrell I agree. It will be interesting to see if conservatives can be manipulated by the psy ops as easily as the liberal sheep. Maybe Hank Williams Jr. can redux the creepy Obama kids song.

  89. Frank says:

    Brandon,

    Do you have the exact numbers for Rasmussen?

    Frank

  90. Jim says:

    #58.

    Yeah, but the problem is that, in office, Obama will lose inexperience with time. Mac won’t be losing any age.

  91. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Go to http://www.tarrance.com/bg.cfm

    They have created their weekly results. Good reads. Mac gained over the week.

    Frank

  92. Llarry from Longview says:

    ok Big Ten polls are whack, you ready for this Polaris …

    Ohio D+13
    IN D+2

  93. Llarry from Longview says:

    Minnesota is only D+8 … how could Ohio be D+13???

  94. Frank says:

    Regarding Battleground poll. The unaided presidential poll is the most accurate. It is 44 – 42% Obama. Very good result for MacCain. Look at the improvement from two weeks ago.

    Otherwise, with leaners (page 10, I think), it’s 48 – 45%.

    Frank

  95. MDefl says:

    “Nothing to see here folks. Move along”.

  96. Brutus says:

    #90

    Yeah, but the learning curve period will be too dangerous.

    Biden said it, he’ll be overwhelmed with crises. He can’t shout people down like he did when he was “selected” to work out the first bailout bill issues in the senate.

    I just don’t believe that this guy knows how to listen.

  97. BENNI says:

    Hi Brandon do you alsmost have the breakdowns for the TX poll of Ras???

  98. Frank says:

    Okay friends,

    It’s that time again.

    Rasmussen results:

    October 11 51.90 – 44.56% Obama +7.34%
    October 12 51.09 – 45.02% Obama +6.07%
    October 13 50.43 – 44.69% Obama +5.74%
    October 14 50.23 – 44.60% Obama +5.63%
    October 15 49.98 – 44.60% Obama +5.38%
    October 16 49.85 – 46.28% Obama +3.57%
    October 17 50.34 – 45.88% Obama +4.46%
    October 18 50.25 – 45.46% Obama +4.79%
    October 19 50.73 – 44.63% Obama +6.10%
    October 20 49.55 – 45.80% Obama +3.75%
    October 21 50.19 – 45.64% Obama +4.55%
    October 22 50.53 – 45.47% Obama +5.06%

    When I get October 23rd, I will post it.

    Frank

  99. GPO says:

    Macs one big f up was allowing the first interview of Palin be with Gibson.

    BOR or Hannity first

  100. Polaris says:

    #92 ROTFLMAO!!!!

    Of course. With the troop death question, the Big 10 poll should be considered a PUSH poll. Shame on Big 10.

    Never poll with a naked agenda.

    HUGE oversampling of Democrats.

    -Polaris

  101. greg says:

    GPO: Wasn’t nearly as bad as CNN asking Palin if she was stupid under the guise of quoting (misquoting that is) Byron York.

  102. Phil says:

    For grins, do they have party IDs for the Quinnipiac polls?

  103. phoenixrisen says:

    Ok the Big Ten polls are officially useless. They are run out of the University of Wisconsin-Madison (VERY LIBERAL TOWN). Also, no partisan breakdown of the calls. They are just “random” among registered voters in their words.

  104. KeyBored says:

    Sarah Palin shopping list
    http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/22/gop-consultant-reimbursed-for-palin-shopping-spree/?hp

    “The full shopping list for Ms. Palin and her family, according to records of the Federal Election Commission, looks like this:

    • $75,062.63 spent at Neiman Marcus on Sept. 10.

    • $41,850.72 to Saks Fifth Avenue in New York on Sept. 10.

    • $7,575.02 to Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis on Sept. 10.

    • $5,102.71 to Bloomingdale’s in New York on Sept. 10.

    • $789.72 to Barney’s New York on Sept. 10.

    • Charges of $4,396.94 and $512.92 at Macy’s in Minneapolis on Sept. 10.

    • $4,537.85 to Macy’s in Minneapolis on Sept. 22.

    • $349.50 to Lord & Taylor in New York on Sept. 25.

    • $4,902.08 to Atelier New York, a men’s clothing boutique, on Sept. 10.

    • Two separate charges of $98 to Pacifier, a high-end baby store in Minneapolis, on Sept. 10 and Sept. 25.

    • $98.50 to Steinlauf & Stoller, a sewing supply store, in New York on Sept. 25.

    • $133 to the Gap in Minneapolis on Sept. 25.

    The money for the clothing came out of the budget of the Republican”

    Please give to the RNC. Baby needs a new pair of shoes.

    kb

  105. RyanH says:

    KB save it. Obama has spent 605 million dollars. $21 million for polls. Save your fake indignity for some other time.

  106. Llarry from Longview says:

    #103, what do you mean no partisan breakdown? they show the cross-tabs

  107. phoenixrisen says:

    Indiana +10 Obama? COME ON!! Ohio +12 Obama?? PFFFFFFF. This is getting to easy to laugh about.

  108. Polaris says:

    #104 Who cares? As long as the items are donated after the election it’s legal.

    Not only that but in case you hadn’t heard, Gov. Palin is strictly middle class. She needs a certain look to run on the national ticket…..

    …or do you as a DEMOCRAT think that Presidential politics are for rich people only?

    -Polaris

  109. phoenixrisen says:

    Larry, WHERE?

  110. Polaris says:

    #107 Read the party ids on post 92 for a real joke!

    I posted the partisan breaks for Quinn on post 17. They aren’t as bad as Big 10 (except for Ohio which is outrageous) but get way too many Indies.

    -Polaris

  111. Polaris says:

    #103 Larry is right. If you have the crosstabs, you can solve for the partisan weights with linear algebra.

    -Polaris

  112. Llarry from Longview says:

    http://www.bigtenpoll.org/results.html

    click any state you want for the cross tabs

  113. Ice Cream Man says:

    And Obama has spent 454,000 for food to include
    For a snack
    Lobster
    Iranian caviar
    and
    Dom Perignon

    Great eats

  114. phoenixrisen says:

    Okay, I just clicked on Ohio and it shows a Dem +13 weighted sample, let me go check the others.

  115. phoenixrisen says:

    Thanks Larry 🙂

  116. Llarry from Longview says:

    Phoenix … you will like IN D+2 … Ooops!

  117. phoenixrisen says:

    Pannsylvania is Dem weighted +12 in the Big Ten poll.

  118. phoenixrisen says:

    You’re KIDDING me! LOL Are you serious????

  119. Polaris says:

    The market early this morning hit and confirmed it’s bottom…at about 8400 and rebounded strongly. Currently up slightly.

    -Polaris

  120. Polaris says:

    Big 10 Poll==Garbage. Worse than the hideous Dem overweighing, look at the questionaire. They are PUSH polling.

    -Polaris

  121. AF Rico says:

    Folks,

    Where are the Rev Wright ads??? Darrell, I know you’re hearin’ me on that one.

  122. Llarry from Longview says:

    I am going to be SOOOO f****ng upset if McCain loses a close one and there were no Rev. Wright ads in key battleground states that had voted on Feb 5th and didnt see the stuff from the primaries.

  123. Darrell says:

    121…yes I am.

    Here again are just some of the quotes of Rev. Wright, the guy Obama called his friend and a “great leader.” The man who was his spiritual leader for 20 years. The guy who married him to Michelle and baptized his children. The guy who after his quotes were exposed nationally said “I could no more disown him than I could the black community.” The man who sold Barack on the “Black value system”

    “white folk’s greed runs a world in need”

    Of our troops: “what we are doing is the same thing al qaida is doing under a different flag”

    of the 9/11 attacks: “America’s chickens are comin’ home to roost”

    “White America, US of KKKA”

    “no no no, not God Bless America, God Damn America, that’s in the Bible, God Damn America!”

    “Barack knows what its like to live in a world controlled by rich white people”

    –As these things were preached in the church Obama called his home for 20 years, the crowd in the background CHEERED wildly.

  124. Polaris says:

    Greenspane before congress today: (source AP)

    Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress in prepared testimony Thursday that the current global financial crisis is a “once in a century credit tsunami” that policymakers did not anticipate.

    Liar. McCain, Hagel and others DID anticipate it in 2005. President Bush anticipated it in 2002.

    Do you think the Federal Super-Max system has a spare cell for this clown?

    -Polaris

  125. KeyBored says:

    Polaris

    I though Palin was a hockey mom supposedly identifying with “real” America. Looks hypocritical to me, and to most other Americans I bet.

    kb

  126. Tim Van says:

    the following should be jailed : Franklin Raines, Barney Frank and maybe Chris Dodd.

    Obama shouldn’t even be on the ballot as he has NOT provided documentation that he IS a natural born citizen

  127. Polaris says:

    #125 You want to find a hypocrit, KB, look in a mirror.

    If you are going to be in public in front of TV cameras, you absolutely HAVE to have a top notch wardrobe. If she didn’t she would have been crucified for that.

    I don’t think the left has any intellectual honestly left when it comes to Gov. Palin.

    -Polaris

  128. Tim Van says:

    Looks hypocritical to me, and to most other Americans I bet.

    kb

    Comment by KeyBored —

    Why is that ? Because the RNC got her some fancy clothes ?

  129. L TePaske says:

    KB with all due respect your’e thinking to much.

  130. Brutus says:

    Have Palin’s appearances continued to be overflowing sellouts?

    Any news on what they are expecting for the Philly rally?

    Smerconish listeners defecting after his endorsement of the O’hole. He may have singlehandedly given McCain a percentage point of GOP voter advantage in East PA.

    I sense a lot of anger in PA as a whole against O and his supporters from what I have read and that is not just Murtha.

    My line is 60% chance for McCain.

  131. Good news from here in MO. Gov. Palin scheduled a rally this week in Springfield (Missouri State) which was to be held at a local arena. However, the requests for tickets was so overwhelming, they had to move venues so they could accomodate more people. That is a good sign because I think the GOP is pretty fired up here in MO. It is one thing for Obama to drag a bunch of homeless people to a rally down by the arch and get a huge number, but for Palin to get 40-50k in Springfield will be quite impressive.

  132. Robbie says:

    I want to believe, but…..

    There are twelve days to go and still no mention of Wright. Again, this is campaign malpractice and it makes me wonder if McCain is more concerned about his post election reputation than he is winning the election. Rick Davis should never manage another campaign. Despite a terrible year, Obama was beatable.

  133. Polaris says:

    #126 Oh I agree, but save some room for Alan Greenspan who knew the credit situation was unstable and kept raising rates anyway.

    -Polaris

  134. greg says:

    kb: Palin isn’t the socialist who thinks that people and organizations should be allowed to spend their own money. That’s you.

  135. greg says:

    kb: Palin isn’t the socialist who thinks that people and organizations should NOT be allowed to spend their own money. That’s you.

  136. Darrell says:

    Nobody sits for 20 years in a church that spews white-hate without themselves believing in the same hatred for whites. It would be like somebody having season tickets for the Mets for 20 years they attend Shea stadium, and then they try to convince you that they really are a Yankees fan. Obama=Wright. This is how he really feels. It was SO NATURAL for Obama, AFTER the Wright quotes were exposed to say ‘I could no more disown him than I could the black community’. It wasn’t until after this that, axelrod got to him and told him, Barack, you gotta throw this guy under the bus!!

    Bottom line is that Barack clearly gives assent to what his Preacher preaches. If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and flies like a duck…its a DUCK.

    USE YOUR BRAIN, VOTE McCAIN!!

  137. MDefl says:

    OK, so we if we adjust the Ras poll to D +4.5, BO has a 3.4% lead.

  138. greg says:

    Argentina wants the government to take control of all private pensions. Will an Obama administration be far behind?

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122471757680560465.html

  139. greg says:

    KB with all due respect your’e thinking to much.

    Comment by L TePaske — 10/23/2008 @ 10:16 am

    I don’t think that is possible.

  140. Chun says:

    New Florida Early vote numbers.

    470,849 votes so far

    Dem 54.5%
    Rep 30.5%
    No/Oth 15.0%

  141. greg, hotair has an article up right now talking about the Democrat plan to essetnially take control of 401(k)s and force it into a government run system.

  142. Polaris says:

    #140 I have to agree. To think implies the existance of a functional brain.

    -Polaris

  143. RyanH says:

    I agree that the lack of Wright is a disgrace this late in the game.

    Im not sure though that Obama is/was beatable. The way the media has carried his water thus far, it does not seem they would stop at anything.

    It will be an interesting four years should Obama prevail. The remaining House and Senate Republicans, along with talk news and the blogs are going to have to really dig in for some tough fights. If Republicans cave on some issues there will be a risk of the party becoming completely irrelevant.

  144. RobD says:

    Not that the electorate seems to care but Zombie has dug up one of Bill Ayers first books written along with his beautiful wife that shows that old Billy boy was not really anti war he was anti the US wining the Vietnam war. Not that I’m surprised.

    http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/31651_Zombie-_Billy_Ayers_Forgotten_Communist_Manifesto_Prairie_Fire

  145. L TePaske says:

    #140 Now there you go again

  146. Brutus says:

    #134

    Maybe at the same time we could lock up Mrs. Greenspan (aka Andrea Mitchell) for journalistic malpractice.

  147. Polaris says:

    #141 So what? Early voters are partisan voters and Obama has made it a mission to get his vote in early.

    He did this during the primary too.

    -Polaris

  148. Brutus says:

    #141

    That was reported yesterday. Early voting is high in BOTH DEM and GOP counties.

    Seems a wash.

  149. Chun says:

    “#141 So what? Early voters are partisan voters and Obama has made it a mission to get his vote in early.

    He did this during the primary too.”

    I’m not saying it means anything but lets face it we are all stats addicts and polls are nice but seeing the actual votes getting counted, even if they are slanted, is still one more piece of the puzzle that helps reveal the larger picture we are all interested in.

  150. Llarry from Longview says:

    #149 and Polaris …

    FWIW — Dems are voting at a MUCH higher level than Rs,

    51%-28% in Iowa, 54% to 30 % in FL, 56-27 in NC …

    Obviously the Rs will still vote, but not sure why McCain is having them wait …

  151. middle of the roader says:

    Even the National Review is pooh-poohing the 2% Obama “internal poll” numbers.

    http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGVhMzQ3YzhjZmNkYTliNWExYWNlMGQzNDZjMTk3ZWI=

    There are memos out to Obama staffers to dismiss the polls, some workers are even refusing to read them at all, in order to not get overconfident.

    BATTLEGROUND up to 4%, and the RCP Ave up to 7.4%

  152. KeyBored says:

    AF Rico

    If McCain goes more negative with Wright ads, I bet Obama counters quickly with AIP ads and maybe Keating ads as well. Those ads are probably already made.

    I doubt McCain will go more negative with Wright because McCain will want to salvage his reputation, and that of the Republican party. Whether Obama wins or looses, McCain’s negative attacks and robo calls will ad to the divisiveness of the country. Wright ads will only further the divide. I think McCain knows this, so will draw the line with Wright.

    kb

  153. Brandon says:

    RAS Exact number:
    Obama 51.66%(+1.13)
    McCain 44.83%(-0.64)

    Looks like a pretty strong Obama day came on, by my guess a +7 or 8 day.

  154. Eph_Rove says:

    Christian Family State polls:

    OH, MAC +18

    PA, MAC +17

    IN, MAN +23

    MI, MAC +11

    FL, MAC +18

    (dedicated to QUIN/Zogby/RAS/CNN…)

  155. Eph_Rove says:

    BATTLEGROUND up to 4%

    wow! looks like a blowout!!!

  156. greg says:

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t Obama calling for tax hikes on individuals making more than 200K and families making more than 250K? Isn’t this a massive marriage penalty? Shouldn’t McCain hammer Obama for being anti-marriage?

  157. Chun says:

    “That was reported yesterday. Early voting is high in BOTH DEM and GOP counties.

    Seems a wash.”

    These are the new numbers getting reported this morning.

  158. Eph_Rove says:

    Trolls back big time today!

    Odd that they appear when a ton of these bogus polls are released.

  159. Ponz says:

    Seems Obama had been planning to visit Iowa on Thursday whole MacPalin will hold several rallies over the weekend. No way is Obama up 12 points here.

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20081022/NEWS09/810220361/-1/election08

  160. Eph_Rove says:

    74. Eric.

    I totally agree. Either MAC will win a “split” decision like Bush in 2000 or Obama will get 55%+ of the GE vote. I’m starting to think option 2 just b/c MAC does not have the $ to compete with Obama down the stretch. It’s troubling that Obama has a 30 minute “infomercial” and MAC has zero response. Why not a 30 minutes ad about Obama’s record and his associations?

  161. phyl says:

    Karl Rove:

    “When asked what he thinks Sarah Palin brings to this election, Rove said, “I think she’s been a net big plus to the ticket. She has enthused a lot of people. She’s drawn in to the campaign and opened the ears of a lot of people who might not otherwise give a McCain ticket a second hearing. She’s done a lot to energize people and get ‘em involved.”

    But..but..the media insists she’s a drag on the ticket and everyone hates her. LOL!

  162. Ponz says:

    whole = while

  163. Sharon says:

    156….blowout for who?

  164. Eph_Rove says:

    164. Just poking fun of the trolls. They think 4 point lead for Obama and its over.

  165. L TePaske says:

    # 151 McCain is not having anybody wait, we choose to wait. Why is Obama having everybody vot early? Many answers to that one

  166. Darrell says:

    The only reputation at stake with the Wright stuff is Obama’s own. His ACTIONS tell us that he and Michelle hate white people.

  167. mystery says:

    from Jim Geraghty at Campaign Spot

    30 Pages of PDF Fun From the Folks at the Battleground Poll

    http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/

  168. KeyBored says:

    Polaris 143

    Well, if the polls look bad there’s always insults.

    And remember, ‘mud’ spelled backwards is ‘dum’. – Bugs Bunny

    kb

  169. Ponz says:

    Hotline: Obama 48(+1), McCain 43(+1)

  170. Eph_Rove says:

    And at this point the smartest decision Obama has made was to give up public financing of his campaign.

    Very smart move.

  171. steven says:

    hotline tracking

    obama 48
    mac 43

  172. sam says:

    Here’s the Battleground poll details:

    “Obama leads McCain, 44-42, with 13 percent undecided.” Almost similar to IBD polling.

    “When you mention all of the candidates and their running mates, Obama leads 48-45. He led, 51-41, on October 9.” A 10-point lead down to 3, in 2 weeks.

  173. Sharon says:

    Eph Rove-
    Ok. I am just a little shaky with all these polls today so I guess I just need to chill and trust in Polaris.

  174. RyanH says:

    Hotline statys at 5, but McCain has a higer favorability rating than Obama for the first time.

    McCain should try to use the Obama infomercial to his advantage. It is so over the top and presumptous, it is ripe to be made fun of. Keep pounding the idea that Obama is treating this as a coronation rather than an election.

  175. Eph_Rove says:

    kb – Are you going to be happy if Obama wins?

  176. Eph_Rove says:

    Ryan – MAC still needs to do something. He cant ignore this.

  177. Jim says:

    #157.

    Yeah, all those people making $200,000 per year intending to marry spouses who also are making $200,000 have really got something to complain about. All of them.

  178. KeyBored says:

    greg

    “Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t Obama calling for tax hikes on individuals making more than 200K and families making more than 250K? Isn’t this a massive marriage penalty?”

    It’s no wonder Utah is such a red state with all those Mormons.

    kb

  179. Chun says:

    Been noticing a lot of anti Obama 527 ads this morning. Are they at it full throttle now?

  180. Ken says:

    #134 – Greenspan’s testimony says he thinks they kept rates too LOW for too long which created the housing bubble

  181. Polaris says:

    Battleground is 2 not 4 for Obama. Use the non-lean number this far out.

    As for early voting, I’m sorry Chun, but without a frame of reference (which is illegal right now), those early voting numbers don’t mean squat.

    Larry,

    Mac isn’t telling his people to wait. Mac isn’t emphasizing early turnout, however. Since Obama IS emphasizing early turnout, and early turnout is much easier in Urban areas, it’s no wonder that early turnout seems to favor the Dems.

    There really isn’t anything to see here.

    -Polaris

  182. Phil says:

    Wow, it’s all hands on deck today for the trolls. Quite a turnout.

  183. Howard Dean says:

    If Obama is under 50%, he’s in trouble.

  184. Eph_Rove says:

    183. Yup. Right along with the BS polls too

  185. Howard Dean says:

    Yeah, all those people making $200,000 per year intending to marry spouses who also are making $200,000 have really got something to complain about. All of them.

    Comment by Jim — 10/23/2008

    What business is it of yours how much someone makes?

  186. Ponz says:

    #175: Yeah, I think the faux state of the union address will backfire on Barry. Seems like an unnecessary risk for a candidate who supposedly has a “comfortable” lead.

  187. Eph_Rove says:

    We need Polaris and Howard Dean to post 24/7 for the next 12 days!!!

  188. Polaris says:

    #181 What caused the credit freeze was a toxic combination of increasing interest rates, tripling energy prices, and sub-prime loans.

    Greenspan KNEW what would happen (because Sen McCain and other GOP senators warned him) if he pushed interest rates so high without having a plan for dealing with sub-prime paper and he did it anyway.

    -Polaris

  189. Tina says:

    Ok, Mac just lashed out at President Bush. Why do this? Go after the Congress.

    i am really close to not even voting this time around, or voting 3rd party.

  190. Chun says:

    “As for early voting, I’m sorry Chun, but without a frame of reference (which is illegal right now), those early voting numbers don’t mean squat.”

    Then why care about early AA turnout % if it means nothing?

  191. Tina says:

    Dont get me wrong I want MAC to win, but this is stupid campagain tactics. You will only alienate the base.

  192. Chun says:

    “Ok, Mac just lashed out at President Bush. Why do this? Go after the Congress.”

    What did he say? Was it an appeal to the middle?

  193. Polaris says:

    #154 Actually it was a combination of a good mac day rolling off and a strong Obama day rolling on.

    -Polaris

  194. Llarry from Longview says:

    Well I voted for Mac the first day I could. I dont get people waiting. Makes no sense to me.

  195. L TePaske says:

    Yes Polaris I do realize that but was replying to an earlier idiot post.

  196. KeyBored says:

    Eph_Rove

    “Are you going to be happy if Obama wins?”

    Happy? Yes, but probably more relieved. I believe that Bush policies have really hurt the middle class and lower classes, our country, and our standing in the world. It looks to me like McCain will continue those policies.

    Obama is to me what America is all about: hopeful, optimistic, and inclusive.

    kb

  197. Todd says:

    Because President Bush is a failure. If President Bush would have listened to McCain on Iraq, we wouldnt have had this mess. If President Bush would have listened to McCain on Spending, the energy bill and the PDB, we wouldnt have the deficit we have today.

    Tina, you would be wise to vote McCain!

  198. eric says:

    There are two things that jump out on the BG internals. Mac leads on only one question, strong leader. Also, the generic question is D+8. At the same time, it’s O +2 on the unaided ballot, which means Mac is running 6 points ahead of the party question, and somehow is only 2 down while at the same time trailing on every question but one. This tells me that O is actually underperforming, and is vulnerable if the BG #’s are accurate, which I think they are.

  199. Tina says:

    Where can I get a link of the BG poll – is it 2 or 4. I do not know how it can be 4.

  200. Eph_Rove says:

    198. Good points.

  201. Justnashole says:

    Troll alert.

  202. Polaris says:

    KB,

    If you wanted to rail against Bush, you should have posted here four years ago.

    McCain is not at all the same thing as Bush and anyone with the political sense of a gnat knows it.

    -Polaris

  203. Eph_Rove says:

    kb. What about a write in vote for Lisa Ann? LOLLLLLLLLLL

  204. Tina says:

    Todd, its just a bit frustrating. MAC needs to continue to do what he has been doing since the 3rd debate, but tie it into the unpop. D-rat Congress.

  205. Besides the Obamabots, who is actually going to watch his infomercial? I wonder if he can get that Sham-wow! guy to introduce him, that would be cool. Maybe the guy from Amazing Discoveries, I loved that show.

  206. Eph_Rove says:

    Where are the MAC ads …”Pelosi, Reid, and Obama in charge of the country. Is that what you really want?”

    WHERE IS THE AD?????????????

  207. RyanH says:

    I agree that MAC needs to do something. I just am not sure what that something is at this point.

    Someone posted McCain and Palin’s schedule the other day. Either they are running the dumbest campaign ever, or there really is something going on in this election. Most signs point to a blowout but yet McCain is in Iowa. That decision will be ridiculed if McCain gets clobbered there.

  208. Tina says:

    Ok, I found it, its +2 for BG.

  209. mom in sc says:

    If Obama wins, I wonder how long it will be before the lemmings realize that he isn’t all sweetness and light? He’s for inclusion, all right – he’ll include us all right into an America we no longer recognize – and try to convince us it’s “for the best.” We’ll all be poor and dependent OR we’ll be jailed for going against “his Oneness.”

  210. geauxlsu says:

    kb….you say that Obama is what America is all about…hopeful, optimistic, and inclusive. Can you elaborate on what Obama plans you think are good for the country? I’m just trying to understand which parts of his campaign platform you think are better for the country. Please don’t say you’re tired of the past 8 years…I would sincerely like to hear what you think he is going to do that will benefit you as a “typical” American. Also…do you believe in the ‘spread the wealth’ idea? Do you think that is a good policy? Sincere questions here, not attacking.

  211. greg says:

    Yeah, all those people making $200,000 per year intending to marry spouses who also are making $200,000 have really got something to complain about. All of them.

    Comment by Jim — 10/23/2008 @ 10:48 am

    Well, since you cant add: 200+200=400;

    Or divide: 250/2 = 125.

  212. Polaris says:

    #208 But I don’t think he will be. In a lot of ways this is smelling a lot like 2004 all over again. There isn’t the desperation I heard over and over again in 2006. I am hearing anger….lots of anger but suprisingly little despair despite the best efforts of the MSM.

    I suspect that the “broken glass” vote will be out in force again, not for McCain who they don’t especially like but because:

    1. They LOVE Gov. Palin.
    2. They LOATH Sen Obama
    3. They LOATH the MSM and would love to vote for Mac just to stick it to them.

    -Polaris

  213. These Wheather Underground people were frightening. They had plans to kill 25 million Americans in their revolution and to put the rest in “re-education camps.” You can see the interview by one of their members here, http://minx.cc/?post=276378. That is some scary stuff.

  214. Tina says:

    Uh, the person making $180K would see a tax increase from the Obumbler according to the leftist that just won the Nobel Prize in Economics. You know who that guy is???

    Also, Obama repealing the tax cuts from Bush would cause dividend and capital taxes to rise (Obama also said that he thinks capital gains and corp, taxes should be higher).

  215. Tina says:

    Oh no,

    More Obama-Acorn voter fraud:

    2000 false registrations in WA state came from one Acorn person.

    CNN.

  216. Howard Dean says:

    Obama is to me what America is all about: hopeful, optimistic, and inclusive.

    kb

    Comment by KeyBored — 10

    Unless you are 17, you should be embarrassed by this.

    You are willfully ignorant and pass your days with cliche’s and platitudes.

    Unbelievable.

  217. Darrell says:

    Obama is to me what America is all about: hopeful, optimistic, and inclusive.

    kb

    Obama is for hate, not hope. Look at the people he has hung around with for the last 20 years…haters. Ayers hates America, Wright hates whites. That is not hope. He is pessimistic, not optimistic. He is NOT inclusive, as he sat for 20 years listening to his mentor say “white folk’s greed runs a world in need” and “White America, US of KKKA”

  218. Tina says:

    Check your credit card statements, more Obama charges are appearing.

  219. Brutus says:

    Spoke with someone last night who is not very political but was still concerned about “O”. There main question was “what happens if he is elected and we find out that he is not natural born US citizen.”

    This rumor is making the rounds, true or not.

    Obama may be the victim of death by a thousand cuts, more than McCain.

    Beyond a reasonable doubt is not just for LA Law anymore.

  220. phyl says:

    The “broken glass” vote this time includes a whole bunch of voters that no-one would ever expect to vote “R” – the PUMAs, and they certainly seem motivated. They have also been told to lie to the pollsters to put them off so Dem numbers could be all suspect.

  221. Brutus says:

    #216

    Don’t believe CNN would post that story.

    Must be fiction.

  222. BENNI says:

    Rasmussen data shows Obama with an 86.0% chance of winning in November

  223. RyanH says:

    Polaris. Im inclined to agree with you that McCain’s schedule is indicative that this race is not over quite yet. I would love to see some pushback from campaign strategists on these polls, unless of course the goal is to promote overconfidence in the opposition.

    My biggest concerns right now in order are: Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Indiana (assuming NM and Iowa are lost). Seen recent polling putting the race extremely close in VA, NV, OH, FL and NC. Would like to see tightening in CO and IN could use some polling from MD.

  224. Darrell says:

    Remember that Wright’s views were SO NATURAL and acceptable to Obama, that he had to be persuaded by Axelrod that most American voters are not going to warm up to “White America, US of KKKA” and “God Damn America”

  225. L TePaske says:

    Bush ended up going to HA. because polls indicated he had a chNCE TO WIN THERE IN 2004. I GET A CHANCE ,MAYBE, TO DRIVE TEN MILES TO SEE jOHN AND cINDI on sunday. I hTE IT WHEN YOU hit the cap. button

  226. MDefl says:

    #207,

    EPH – that ad is all over PA.

  227. Darrell says:

    226…HA must be one of the extra 7 states that Obama thinks exists.

  228. Starbuck says:

    Polaris is right again. Dem’s voted early in 2004.

    North Carolina

    Early Voting Percentages
    2008 2004
    Party
    Dem 56.3% 48.6%
    Rep 27.1% 37.4%
    None 16.6% 14.1%

  229. GPO says:

    # 188 I agree Polaris and Howard Dean are not allowed to take off until election day. I would add Mdefl as well. If you must sleep please coordinate amongst yourselves

  230. L TePaske says:

    He has the money to target adds where he thinks they will be most effective, good strategy, if he had zillions of dollars he could blanket the country, but he doesn’thave zillions, unlike some who didn’t take public funding.

  231. L TePaske says:

    Do Polaris and Howard get a say in this or is it a majority rule thing?

  232. Brutus says:

    Point to consider:

    I brought this up several weeks ago. Altough the market is still low and volatile, gas prices are back to June 07 levels.

    That is what concerns the average Joe and Joann the most and that is their economic marker. Every time they drive by a gas station the price reinforces this. They’re not gnashing their teeth about their portfolios or lost values on homes in Boca.

    I think the stock market factor is relatively low now and will likely stay that way.

    End of ramble.

  233. Eph_Rove says:

    Mdefl – I live in AZ so I have no idea what’s going on in the battground states. Thanks for the update

  234. Eph_Rove says:

    we need a new thread

  235. Brutus says:

    #231

    True. Consider this the end of public financing. No party will commit to this again.

  236. L TePaske says:

    HA is for Hawaii. Well it is in my book

  237. KeyBored says:

    geauxlsu

    I like Obama’s plans as outlined at his site:
    http://www.barackobama.com/issues/

    There is a PDF file that you can download at his site that goes into more detail.

    To be honest, I’d vote for any Democrat candidate for president because I believe in democratic principles. But I’m much more enthusiastic about Obama for two reasons: I admire his character and background, and I do seek change after the last eight years of a failed presidency – which I think can also be attributed to Republican policy.

    While Obama’s use of the term “spreading the wealth” was probably a poor choice of words, I do agree with a tax policy that favors middle and lower class over the rich. There is nothing radical about this, it’s very similar to what Clinton did except Clinton didn’t concentrate much on middle-class tax cuts.

    While McCain believes in green technology, I believe Obama will implement a green revolution with great vigor that will go far revitalizing our economy, achieving energy independence, and combating climate change.

    kb

  238. L TePaske says:

    Could be HI you know the first and last letter thing

  239. Brutus says:

    #235

    There is now.

  240. L TePaske says:

    KB you’re dreaming

  241. Eph_Rove says:

    MAC should have never taken public financing.

    Now I know why Obmaa goes to Hollywood and the Upper West side every two weeks!

  242. eric says:

    His character and background? LOL!

  243. Polaris says:

    Geez….nice to know I just got volunteered! 😛

    Seriously, I’ve shown you the path to really tearing apart these polls. A lot of you are doing great work on your own. I guess I’ll stick around to hold everyone’s hands and sing kumbaya (however you spell that), but I don’t think it’s really needed.

    #229 Good work starbuck. Trot out those stats everytime a troll tries to say that the GOP not the Dems voted early in 2004. It’s not true.

    -Polaris

  244. Darrell says:

    Obama’s character and background?

    He has no experience, and his friends are characters like Rezko, Ayers, and Wright.

  245. Sharon says:

    #230…the thought of enduring these final days without the trio is unthinkable. I agree…guys, get your sleep now!

  246. Polaris says:

    New thread

    -Polaris

  247. KeyBored says:

    Eph_Rove

    On Lisa Ann, it would be nice to see her get a good poll bounce.

    kb

  248. Eph_Rove says:

    kb – Ditto. If only Palin could get a bounce like that too !!

  249. Kim Priestap says:

    Here’s BG’s full report. It’s Obama over McCain 44%-42%.

  250. fb says:

    For those of you that think only the rich are going to be taxed. Check what the dems are planning on doing to your 401(k). Messiah supporters please tell me how this only affects the rich. http://www.workforce.com/section/00/article/25/83/58.php

  251. Steve Z says:

    RE #251:

    The voters in the Battleground poll seem to be clueless on the issues. How can they believe that Obama will “unite the country” or “provide jobs”? Have these people just emerged from hibernation?

  252. MikeKS says:

    BG for TODAY is O+4