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McCain tied with Obama-New Poll

Well I got my AP wire and the Presidential race is tied.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gkM0JvRRUl81LuDA_P2t_goU2kGAD93VM4PO0

I dissected for a bit the M & F poll from this morning.  It had McCain down nationally with a +10 edge in democrats.  I will let others dissect this poll.  Let me state that for weeks now I have suggested that 10 to 12 % of the voters if given a chance will not state a perference.  This AP as does the Hotline tracking poll backs that thought up.

Look for state polls to back this McCain surge up.

Posted by rdelbov at 2:20 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (358)

358 Responses to “McCain tied with Obama-New Poll”

  1. Jeff S. says:

    uno!

  2. Jeff S. says:

    and dos!

  3. Brutus says:

    Based on comments from the last thread. Is the AP wire going to fire their polling firm for providing “discouraging” news.

  4. Tina says:

    This is a violation of poster Dave from two threads down blaiming us for saying First (think he meant UNO).

  5. Darrell says:

    I finished my work crunching the regional breakdown of the M-D VA poll. It is as I suspected. They have oversampled NOVA. NOVA should have gotten only about 23% of the share of 625 interviews, and yet NOVA was awarded 27% of the interviews. Hampton Roads was about right at 22%. Richmond-Metro was 12% which is right on the mark. This tells me that the Shenendoah/piedmont and Lynchburg/southside were under polled. This means that You can add a few points to McCain to this poll and take away a few from Obama.

  6. Cyrano says:

    Has anyone correlated the poll release times with the movement on Wall Street.

    For those with no job it might be an interesting exercise.

  7. Brutus says:

    Saying “First” isn’t a big deal.

    It’s the fact that they say nothing else.

  8. Eph_Rove says:

    You all know that it was Eph_Rove who made up the “first” thing way back in 2004.

  9. Cory says:

    This is just a liberal news org doing Obama’s bidding and scaring his supporters into working harder.

    The Messiah warns about complacency, and what happens? The AP comes right out with a poll to help him make his point!

    Every poll and news org is in the tank, and this just proves it yet again.

    Unbelievable.

  10. victrc says:

    finn I saw from the other post you’re in rancho I have a house in lake arrowhead and when I’m in ca I go to rancho all the time gf goes vic gardens I go to play golf at empire lakes!!

    Wholesale gas is down a other ten cents today to high 1.50 range. For reference 1.40 wholes translates to 2.19 at the pump in Ca so lots more reductin in price at the pump to come

  11. DWu says:

    Darrell,

    Thanks for your work on VA. Nicely done.

    I thought MAC’s Republican support at 80% was much too low and now I see why — oversampling a lot of soft Republicans in NOVA.

    I think the MD poll is otherwise nicely done compared to most VA polls.

    It’s internals line up almoste EXACTLY with what we’ve all been saying here about VA.

  12. Tim Van says:

    Howard Dean,

    Where are all those 527 ads you told us would be coming ?

  13. MDefl says:

    “Nothing to see here folks. Move Along”. Heh

    Guys, sometimes you need to trust people Polaris and me. While we can always be wrong (after all we are not Obama), we have studied these issues for years.

  14. GPO says:

    #9 Cory
    So you are admitting that all the polls are bogus?????

  15. RobD says:

    Say where are all the trolls?

  16. Jake says:

    This is an absolutely huge McCain surge eh? Like a tidal wave. Or perhaps a tidal bore.

  17. Tim Van says:

    Eph,

    You are a trendsetter.

  18. Jake says:

    12 – I too am wondering about the 527’s. Granted I don’t watch a lot of network TV, but I’m sure I saw a lot more 527’s, esp MoveOn and Swifties, back ’04.

  19. MikeKS says:

    Speaking of 527’s, I was hoping for “Community Organizers for Truth”. 🙂

  20. Polaris says:

    Ooops.

    GfK (which is AP’s pet polling firm) violated the first rule of the public pollster. Always tell the story that your client wants to hear.

    -Polaris

  21. Cory says:

    Sometimes my subversive humour doesn’t translate well through text, GPO.

  22. Eph_Rove says:

    15. Thats funny…I was just about to ask where about is KB today?

  23. GPO says:

    21 Cory
    gotcha

  24. Mark says:

    Question for the experts…

    Suppose McCain pulls this out, will we also pick up House seats? Any chance of regaining the House?

  25. Eph_Rove says:

    World Series starts tomorrow…hear that MAC ?????

  26. bartman says:

    How does my local newspaper get around printing this tomorrow? My paper prints everything AP and every poll that AP has done recently has been headline news. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

  27. Tina says:

    I know the NRO is running a 527 ad in 10 states. No additional details.

    I have a gasoline price thread at RP.

  28. Tim Van says:

    oh wait…

    here is why there are no 527’s for mccain…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTqjw3ERHz4

  29. Jake says:

    Well, the GFK poll does certainly support the importance of Party ID. The last poll of theirs was D40, R29. This new poll is D34, R28.

    I guess they don’t bother with any weighting; they just poll and report. But that is a huge fluctuation in Voter ID on large samples polled only 2 weeks apart.

  30. Rudy says:

    It’s the Fox poll that I find scary…

    It has Obama +9
    O49 M 40

  31. Tina says:

    I also have the CNN-like rumour of the Obumbler pulling out of FL.

  32. Polaris says:

    #24 I’d rate it at slim to none. This is still a strong Dem year. The Dems will lose Fl-7 and TX-22 which really should never have flipped Dem in the first place (as everyone knows, long stories on both) but other than those and a handful of others, I expect the GOP to take a beating.

    It won’t be near as bad as the MSM thinks it’s going to be, but it’s going to be bad.

    -Polaris

  33. AF Rico says:

    #11 DWu,

    I’ve only met one couple that are registered Repubs that are voting for Obama….1! And that’s in NOVA.

    So I’m not sure what the hell is going on with some Republicans voting for Obama. I’ve got several (too many, actually) voting for Mark Warner, and I mean like 20-30%, but I’ve heard one couple that are registered Repubs voting for Obama.

  34. Jake says:

    31 – “CNN-like”? Are you trying to say false or am I missing something?

  35. Tina says:

    Now Jake, who would ever accuse CNN of being fake.

  36. Jeff S. says:

    Don’t know how many of you listened to Rush today. I caught most of his first hour and he seemed like he was ready to concede the election. Hope he bucked up the second two hours of his show. His timing couldn’t be worse- I sense we’re turning a corner the last couple of days.

  37. Phil says:

    My friend who I correspond with frequently emailed me this morning almost in tears. She had watched the Today Show this morning and Chuck Todd had done his usual “the election is over” routine. She said it was pretty bad.

    I emailed her back and told her to quit watching the Today Show. NBC is just an arm of the Obama campaign.

  38. Tina says:

    Remember pollsters do not lie. There is no weekend polling bias. And CNN is 100% accurate.

  39. Tina says:

    Jeff S, I heard no such thing from him. He just repeated that its not over with.

  40. knova_red says:

    33-One thing I will say about Warner is that he is more populist than lib. He has an “A” rating from the NRA so they aren’t even endorsing Gilmore over him. And he was a businessman who made good. That said I have never trusted Warner after he lied about raising taxes in 2001, but Gilmore hasn’t given me much of a reason to vote for him either. I might just opt out of that vote.

  41. Frank says:

    Reweighing the AP/GfK poll to 38 – 36 and assuming 90%/candidate/party, we get ……

    Obama 45.8%
    MacCain 46.6%

    Really cool.

    Keep going, Mac.

    Frank

  42. Jake says:

    39 – I spoke with my realtor this morning and she too was somewhere between tears and breathing fire with anger. Convinced Obama is going to win.

    I do think Obama’s ahead, but jeez. Two points:
    A. this thing AIN’T over, not by quite a way
    B. even if Obama wins, people got to try to keep it together. it’s not the end of america. i’m amazed at how emotional people get about these things – way too personally invested IMO

  43. RyanH says:

    The AP is great news. But even more important is that MD Va. poll. If McCain is only down 2 there, there is simply no way he would be giving up there as I was concerned he was.

    Florida is looking better as is Ohio. If Virginia starts falling into place, election night will last quite a bit longer than suspected. If I were McCain I’d keep Palin out west, I’d plant Rudy and Joe Lieberman in Florida, and I’d focus on Virginia, NC, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

  44. dblaikie says:

    I don’t know if this has been posted yet or not. But IBD/Tipp is out. Here are the numbers:

    IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Ten
    Posted: Wednesday, October 22, 2008

    “Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama’s lead to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He’s also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he’s gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.”

    I guess we can now safe say that in the tracking poll world McCain is making a move and Zogby is in his ususal place (I had such hopes for his redemption)of an outiler. And I don’t care about the bizzaro world of the network polls!!!

  45. Jake says:

    Whoops. My post #42 was actually in response to #37.

  46. Eph_Rove says:

    WHAT THE F*CK IS UP WITH FOXNEWS LATELY??????????

    HOT BLONDE CHICKS ARE NOT CUTTING IT ANYMORE WITH ME!!!

  47. DWu says:

    AF Rico,

    Agree. VA Republicans are very loyal.

    In 2004, Bush wasn’t hugely popular (approval rating under 45% IIRC) and he still got 95% Republican support in VA.

    I would not be surprised by some more R crossover vote this year in VA — maybe 8-10% — as the media’s relentless pounding on the Repub party has been brutal in destroying it’s image (as you well know).

    In trying to make sense of MD’s numbers showing only 80+% of R’s supporting MAC. The only thing I can come up with to explain such low Republican support is (1) overpolling soft Republicans who tend to be more urban (i.e., RINOs), or (2) Dems lying to pollsters about being Republican crossovers. You know the line — “I’ve been Republican my whole life but this year I’m voting for Obama.”

    Do you have any other thoughts?

  48. Polaris says:

    Commentary on latest Fox Poll….

    Enthusiasm is nearly the same with 66% of Dems being “very interested” and 64% of Reps being “very interested”. 34% of Dems are “interested” compared with 36% of Reps. Call this a tie.

    New voters seem to be very small (14% registered in last two years)

    Partisan support…this is a little unrealistic. They claim (with tied enthusiasm mind) that Obama carries Dems 88% over 7% for Mac while Mac only carries GOP voters by 83% Mac to 9% Obama (did they poll the elite NRO types here?)

    Indies aren’t a good number and IMHO unrealistically bad: 44% Obama/35% Mac. Interestingly that still leaves a lot of undecideds but also shows no improvement with the Indie voter from the 8th which smells wrong to me.

    Finally this is a 43D/37R/16I (+others) poll?

    Not only does it oversample Dems but given the internals just where did they take this poll? New England????

    -Polaris

  49. Jake says:

    46 – want to see more hot men? LOL just kidding.

    I like when they show some little hottie in a mini-skirt, looks about 21 years old, almost done with college. Beneath her name it says “Republican Strategist”…

  50. Brandon says:

    RAS KY
    McCain 52%(nc)
    Obama 44%(+2)

    RAS KY Senate
    McConnell 50%(-1)
    Lunsford 43%(+1)

  51. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Here is IBD/TIPP numbers.

    October 13 44.8 – 42.7 Obama +2.1%
    October 14 44.8 – 41.9 Obama +2.9%
    October 15 45.2 – 41.9 Obama +3.3%
    October 16 45.2 – 41.6 Obama +3.6%
    October 17 45.9 – 40.6 Obama +5.3%
    October 18 47.2 – 39.8 Obama +7.4%
    October 19 46.6 – 41.5 Obama +5.1%
    October 20 46.7 – 41.4 Obama +5.3%
    October 21 46.9 – 40.9 Obama +6.0%
    October 22 45.7 – 42.0 Obama +3.7%

    Nice results. Tomorrow will be better !!!!!

    Frank

  52. Jeff S. says:

    Tina, are you saying you didn’t hear a depressed Rush in the first hour or are you saying he “cheered up” later in the program?

  53. HailMary says:

    Just got this off the wire:

    There’s a barn in Ohio where, if you look at the rust stains just right, it shows a 2 point national lead FOR McCAIN! Clearly the barn has the proper dem-repub weighting.

    Keep drinking the kool-aid, boys and girls.

  54. Cam Rep says:

    Unless something unexpected occurs, it looks like it’ll all come down to ground games in NV and VA. Those appear to be the closest states. I don’t think Mac is going to pick off any blue states, and Obama’s best chances are with those two.

  55. DWu says:

    Folks,

    Besides the topline numbers, look what all the latest polls are saying:

    MAC is making gains with lower income folks, suburban folks, married women and indys.

    What’s driving this?

    [I’ll say it again] It’s the JTP/tax issue.

    It’s a rebuke of Obama’s elitism.

    It says that MAC is on the side of the average American and understands folks like Joe.

  56. Cam Rep says:

    #54–I mean, besides IA and NM, which he has a lead in, but which aren’t necessarily in the bag.

  57. Tony says:

    What’s up with the Fox/Rasmussen/Opinion Dynamics threesome?

    Does anybody know if they are using similar party weighing nationally? If not, why would Ras associate with polling orgs that see things so differently than they do?

  58. Jeff S. says:

    Hailmary, any relation to the Messiah? Just something about the name has me wondering.

  59. Yeah, I’m done with Fox news as well.

  60. Tina says:

    Jeff S, he did not sound depressed.

  61. Eph_Rove says:

    Jake – The biggest loser of the blonde Fox Foxes has to be Margaret Hoover.

    She’s pro gay and pro abortion and considerers herself a “Republican Strategist”. Where? In Vermont???

    No wonder why Kirstin Powers ditched O’Reilly (and Hoover)!

  62. rdelbov says:

    DuWu

    did you read my post on Bradley? I did not directly address the issue of republicans and how they vote in that post, but millions upon millions of Obama nuts are well versed in polling and how it works.

    Let me also say that based on what we see here the lefties are all about doing what it takes to pull Obama in. They come here and fib about being middle of the road or long time republicans. Then they push their talking points on us.

    I am convinced that the Obamanuts know that they can score polling points, but fibbing about party ID. Perhaps many when they get that polling call claim to be a republican and then poll for Obama.

    Millions of obamanuts out there. Generally speaking 1/6 people either refuse to poll or pickup the phone from a pollster. So an Obamanut has a better chance of polling and fibbing does happen.

    I personally am convinced that if folks will come here and pretend to be a republican they will say the same to FOX news polling.

  63. Tina says:

    I am nearly done with FOX and NRO – National Rino Online.

  64. phyl says:

    Repeating NRO’s Obi-Wan because the Obama trolls are coming out again:

    “”Why are they angry? Because their whole strategy relies on a demoralized GOP. Remember the scare they had in September?” Obi-Wan asked. “All that coronation stuff at the Democratic convention dissolved as McCain seized and held a good lead. They know how fragile things are. They need to keep the media talking about a massive GOP defeat, because all it might take is a few stories to the contrary and all of a sudden, it is mid-September again, when the rising McCain tide was lifting all boats.””

  65. Jeff S. says:

    OK,Tina. I like your take better than mine. I will say this though; his spirits did not seem as high as mine. I usually count on him to boost mine and he didn’t do it that first hour.

  66. phyl says:

    Also:

    Obi Wan: ‘Believe me, there is someone in the Obama campaign who is deathly afraid of the ‘McCain pulls even or goes ahead’ poll.’

  67. Polaris says:

    Everyone,

    You’ll enjoy this. I don’t like the editorial policy of Pollster.com any more than I think most of you do, but they do come up with some gems of articles every now and again. Get a load of this one (the sheep are starting to get nervous):

    http://www.pollster.com/blogs/lundry_a_different_kind_of_bra.php

    -Polaris

  68. Tina says:

    Jeff S, just vote and do what you need to do. Turn off the tv, flip the channel when Faux news reports baloney, etc.

  69. Howard Dean says:

    Sometimes my subversive humour doesn’t translate well through text, GPO.

    Comment by Cory

    I picked up on it but what you missed is the AP is questioning the results.

    heh

  70. DWu says:

    Polaris,

    Re the internals of the Fox Poll:

    MAC is set up to surge on election day just like Gore did in 2000.

    MAC’s Republican support in polls is ridiculously low — low 80s is just not realistic. It’ll be closer to 90% on election day.

    There are a lot of Republicans in these polls claiming they are (1) undecided and/or (2) won’t support MAC.

    This was exactly what Al Gore faced in 2000.

    This was exactly what gave GWB his 6+% lead in the polls 1 week before teh 2000 election.

    This group came home on election day to swing a 6% poll lead into a 1/2 actual vote deficit.

    If these numbers keep up, look for a big MAC surge on election day.

  71. Jake says:

    64 – These ideas are premised on the assumption that a story of an Obama tsunami is good for the Obama campaign. Personally, I’m not convinced of that, but I don’t think I’ll be able to persuade anyone here.

  72. Brutus says:

    #66

    Just someone, not everyone?

  73. Jeff S. says:

    Let me clarify, Tina. I turned on Rush already in high spirits (mostly from reading these posts the last two days, so maybe I was expecting too much from him.

  74. Tony says:

    Shep (Studio oBama) Smith just said McCain is likely to cease any attacks on Obama while he is visiting gmother. This is pathetic.

    Instead, McCain should be attackng Obama for being a thoughtless pig by campaigning for 3 days while his beloved gmother is supposedly in dire straits.

  75. Tina says:

    Again, just to recap, Fox poll was wrong in 2004. I explained why it was wrong in the other thread:

    1. They went to a tracking.

    2. They polled on a weekend.

    (This came directly from their polling director for OD).

  76. Tina says:

    Jeff S, I know the feeling, I have resorted to calling Fox – Faux News, and turning off segments/flipping the channel.

    I must say though that Greta – as a Democrat – has one of the best programs in their line up.

    Compared to Sheeple Smith.

  77. Phil says:

    Shep Smith is a Democrat BTW.

  78. Tina says:

    I do not mind that Phil – since Greta is one too.

  79. Jeff S. says:

    Tina, I gave up on Fox about two weeks ago. Drudge and Powerline for me, mostly.

  80. Tina says:

    Yup, I agree Jeff S.

  81. Shep Smith is a metrosexual douchebag.

  82. geauxlsu says:

    Trolls are back….another good sign.

  83. DWu says:

    Thank God for talk radio — it truly is Radio Free America.

  84. Phil says:

    Yeah, I know she is but still, she does a better job than Smith hiding it. Still, I hear ya.

  85. MDefl says:

    OK – so I had a long call at lunch with my friend who works for the Dems in Philadelphia. After discussing our kids and the Phils chances in the WS, we talked about politics. Here are some of his observations. For background, he is a fairly high level type and worked directly for Rendell in the 90’s. He considers himself to be a centrist and was a huge HRC supporter and worships Bill Clinton. Anyway here are his thoughts:

    1. BO has a 4 to 6 point lead. Murtha’s comments hurt but he does not think that will change the dynamic. He can see some tightening with an Obama victory in the 3 to 3.5 point range. Rendell’s plea to BO was a cya in case something unexpected happens. Both of the Clintons and BO will be in Penn next week. BTW – he said that PA would be +18 if HRC were the candidate. He is biased, obviously.

    2. His sense of the national race is that BO is 5 to 7 points ahead but it is soft with many R’s still waiting to come home.

    3. He predicts that BO will win by 3% with 329 EV’s. He has BO taking VA, FL, NV, CO, NM and IN. I debated this point with him and told him that IF BO won, his EV ceiling will be 278. He laughed at me when I said this. His claim is that the meltdown occured at the worse possible moment and in normal times, Mac might have a shot. So, we took the mid point of our guesses – me 278 and him 329, which is 301 and whoever is closer wins a dinner at Sullivans on the other person. This is actually a big deal since we tend to eat the most expensive steaks and drink fairly expensive wine. If I lose, this will cost me a couple of hundred bucks.

  86. Howard Dean says:

    Cory probably thinks the media is unbiased too:

    Study: McCain coverage mostly negative

    By MICHAEL CALDERONE | 10/22/08 1:59 PM

    The good news for John McCain? He’s now receiving as much attention from the national media as his Democratic rival. The bad news? It’s overwhelmingly negative.

    Just 14 percent of the stories about John McCain from the conventions through the final presidential debate were positive in tone, according to a study released today, while nearly 60 percent were negative—the least favorable coverage of any of the 4 candidates on the ticket.

    Politico

  87. GPO says:

    This f’n market is driving me bananas

  88. Phil says:

    Talk Radio today. Will it be here tomorrow is the question.

  89. Brutus says:

    If O’s grandmother has a broken pelvis, that’s a common injury from getting hit by a bus. Of course he should be there.

    I don’t recall the DEMs letting up on McCain when he suspended his campaign.

    If it’s a more serious ailement disregard this post.

  90. Eph_Rove says:

    81. Why dont you tell us how you really feel?

    LOLLLLLLLLLL

  91. victrc says:

    Don’t know if anyone saw NM dem senator thinks fairness doctrine should come back. Who else thinks this will just steamroll if the junior senator from Illinois wins. Just another reason to be motivated to vote and help get others out to vote.

  92. MDefl says:

    Ingore AP and TIPP,

    “Nothing to see here folks. Move along”.

  93. CK MacLeod says:

    Besides the topline numbers, look what all the latest polls are saying:

    MAC is making gains with lower income folks, suburban folks, married women and indys.

    What’s driving this?

    JtP may be a big part of it, but I think that Palin’s gradual reccapture of her own image is a huge part of it. She’s been a media sensation all along, but for a good several weeks there, coinciding with the economic crisis and a thousand hit jobs on her, only the R base was willing to stand by her. She went from being a major pull to a major drag on indies and conservative dems, esp. female – from a paragon and role model, to a “mistake” and an embarrassment that also, supposedly, reflected on McCain’s judgment. The campaign played into it by seeming to hide her, and, of course, by sacrificing her to Couric and Gibson. Palin should demand live re-matches with those two. The campaign needs to put her out there like they’re rightly convinced she’s the greatest thing to hit American politics in history, and that “everyone” else has come to realize it, too.

    (apologies if my formatting above didn’t work – just thought I’d experiment!)

  94. Darrell says:

    Here again are just some of the quotes of Rev. Wright, the guy Obama called his friend and a “great leader.” The man who was his spiritual leader for 20 years. The guy who married him to Michelle and baptized his children. The guy who after his quotes were exposed nationally said “I could no more disown him than I could the black community.” The man who sold Barack on the “Black value system”

    “white folk’s greed runs a world in need”

    Of our troops: “what we are doing is the same thing al qaida is doing under a different flag”

    of the 9/11 attacks: “America’s chickens are comin’ home to roost”

    “White America, US of KKKA”

    “no no no, not God Bless America, God Damn America, that’s in the Bible, God Damn America!”

    “Barack knows what its like to live in a world controlled by rich white people”

    –As these things were preached in the church Obama called his home for 20 years, the crowd in the background CHEERED wildly.

  95. Steve Z says:

    In the Fox poll, the writeup says that “a subsample of 936 has been defined as likely voters…Democrats 401, Republicans 345, Independents 148.”

    Fuzzy math, folks! That adds up to 894, not 936! Out of 894, that comes to 45% D, 39% R, and 17% I. The +6 Dem split is probably 2% to 3% too high, but the Independents are seriously under-sampled.

    They also show McCain only getting 83% of Republicans. Not gonna happen–in almost ALL other polls, McCain gets 90+% among Republicans–thank you Sarah Palin! An extra 7% among Republicans is about 2% of the overall electorate.

    In their writeup, Fox said that Obama would win white Catholics 50-39. Maybe if one considers Kerry and Pelosi to be Catholic, but most Catholics vote on abortion, and Obama’s vote for infanticide is a killer issue for Catholics. Since Catholics are about 25% of the electorate, a polling error here could swing a net 5% toward McCain.

    On economic issues, people favor a spending freeze 63-29%, but are slightly against “spread the wealth” by 45-46%. Did any of these people polled by Fox watch the last debate? Now which candidate proposed a spending freeze?

    Note to McCain: Talk about the spending freeze!

  96. Tina says:

    Now why would he write a blurb on Ayers book, if he barely knew him?

  97. GPO says:

    Market down 500

    f it all

  98. KeyBored says:

    MDefl 85

    I hope you have one of those reward points credit cards 🙂

    kb

  99. bonncaruso says:

    The AP poll is the only one of just 10 from today and 16 including non-repeaters from yesterday. In the world of statistics, we call that an outlier, and that is exactly what it is: an outlier.

    Anyone who believes this poll over the other 16 is in unicorn fantasy land.

  100. Brutus says:

    #97

    Soros saw the good polling come out for McCain and decided to kick in his sell programs.

    No surprise.

  101. knova_red says:

    Anyone who believes this poll over the other 16 is in unicorn fantasy land.

    That’s what we are. We know it. So why do you keep coming here to tell us that?

  102. Darrell says:

    96…doesn’t everybody write book blurbs for guys who just live in the neighborhood?

  103. Eph_Rove says:

    kb!

    Guess what I saw last night?

  104. Polaris says:

    #99 If you say so. If that’s the case CBS, ABC, and Pew (not to mention Zogby) are also outliers.

    Frankly given the trend in the tracking and the trolls trying to convince us otherwise and Obama’s own polling showing him only up two in PA, I think AP/GfK is closer to right than you are willing to admit.

    As for the market, it’s more lemmings losing their money with Hedge Funds. Classic Huge overreaction over only mildly bad earnings news (whose P/Es should still have the market over a thousand points higher btw). I suspect that we’re testing the bottom again today.

    -Polaris

  105. bonncaruso says:

    Because someone has to keep you elephants from all jumping off the cliff at the same time, and for this job, you need a centrist with a brain in his head.

  106. MDefl says:

    KB,

    I actually do!

    Look, in all seriousness if this election were a referendum on the current ws crisis with blame being assigned solely to R’s, then BO would be ahead by 20+ nationally.

  107. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Rasmussen:

    KY 50 – 42 MacCain (I think)

    TN 58 – 39 MacCain (I think)

    Would somebody confirm these for me?

    Thanks

    Frank

  108. MDefl says:

    I think the number for KY might have been for McConnell.

  109. Brandon says:

    KY is 52-44.
    TN is 54-42.

  110. AF Rico says:

    Victrc,

    This talk of the Fairness Doctrine by Bingaman (a Dem like the Colorado senator who acts like something he’s not) is Orwellian in my opinion.

    I don’t get Fox’s coverage either…fearful of the Fairness Doctrine applied to the TV?

  111. Polaris says:

    #106 Well that would exclude you or KB.

    -Polaris

  112. Howard Dean says:

    Note to McCain: Talk about the spending freeze!

    Comment by Steve Z

    Yup.

  113. Brutus says:

    #105

    LOL, you I suppose are the “centrist”?

    I’ve read nothing in your posts for the last two months to believe that.

  114. Tina says:

    Rumor is CBS has a new poll showing a tied race?

  115. Gary Maxwell says:

    Coming from a neither a centrist nor one with discernable brain activity, that is pretty rich!

  116. Aaron_in_TX says:

    The other questions on the AP poll show it to be strange. There’s a HUGE discrepancy between their total sample and LV numbers. It goes from +10 to +1. It seems the 300 people they screened out included pretty much all democrats and/or Obama voters.

    It shows the gender split at 51F-49M. It oversamples the 30-44 demographic and cuts the others by about 2-5% compared to 2004. Also 57-38 for over 50,000 income? That’s the biggest discrepancy they have.

    I’d like to know what their LV screen was. On most things, it mirrors the 2004 exit polls, but emphasizes certain things that benefit republicans.

  117. Banjoman says:

    CBS, No way!

  118. Howard Dean says:

    Rumor is CBS has a new poll showing a tied race?

    Comment by Tina

    Don’t believe it.

  119. Frank says:

    # 99

    … and the movement to MacCain in BG and IBD/TIPP doesn’t count?

    Yeah, right.

    Frank

  120. Howard Dean says:

    Gary, Where have you been?

    You need to post more often!

  121. knova_red says:

    for this job, you need a centrist with a brain in his head.

    Then why are you here? Perhaps we all want to go off the cliff together and the libertarian in me is offended that you feel compelled to tell us to do otherwise.

    No…there’s probably more than that to it on your part.

  122. Brutus says:

    #114

    Another domino to fall!

    Maybe the “o” should call back the drapist and victory party caterer.

  123. Howard Dean says:

    CBS just did a poll showing +14.

  124. Tim Van says:

    Anyone who believes this poll over the other 16 is in unicorn fantasy land.

    Comment by bonncaruso

    I am in Unicorn Fantasy Land. It is nice here. We believe in God, America, and apple pie.

    🙂 🙂 🙂

  125. Frank says:

    Brandon,

    Thanks. My computer at my desk doesn’t access the video so I went to another room. Watched the video and forgot the numbers.

    Geez.

    Frank

  126. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “people favor a spending freeze 63-29%”

    It shows that people don’t realize everything the federal government pays for. They think spending freeze would mean only freezing bridges to nowhere.

    Most of what McCain wanted to accomplish would be impossible if he froze spending. What about the funding for special needs kids that Palin wants? That’s just one example.

  127. Tim Van says:

    actually, we don’t believe in apple pie, we just eat it.

  128. KeyBored says:

    MDefl

    Obama’s a tough sell for many Americans. He has tremendous disadvantages.

    kb

  129. Brutus says:

    Soros must believe the CBS poll rumor.

    He’s continuing his sell off. Market down 687. Half of that in the last hour.

  130. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “I am in Unicorn Fantasy Land. It is nice here. We believe in God, America, and apple pie.”

    Are you in the pro-America part of the country, Tim V? 😉

  131. Tim Van says:

    I’m tempted to start a thread for “Unicorn Fantasyland Believers only” but I won’t. The trolls would crash the gates anyway.

  132. KeyBored says:

    Eph_Rove

    I give up, what?

    kb

  133. Ken says:

    Well it sounds like the conservatives are beginning to eat their own as they tend to do when the heat is on. It is scary to see that some of you cannot tolerate hearing anything that is not in agreement with the koolaid drinking ultra conservatives. As I’ve said before, if you want to win elections you need a bigger tent and I don’t see that happening with the Republican Party as evidenced in comments like #61.

  134. Tim Van says:

    LOL AATX, I live in anti-america ny.

  135. knova_red says:

    126- I would just be happy if they froze federal hiring and let the federal workforce decrease by attrition, as well as freezing any raises for 4 years. Come here to NOVA and see how your “poor” civil servant lives. Our taxes are funneled through a huge and inefficient bueracracy. The poor remain poor while the federal worker gets rich.

  136. Tina says:

    No new BS poll.

  137. Aaron_in_TX says:

    Yeah, NY is definitely not pro-America. I’ll switch you! We’d both fit in much better that way.

  138. Eph_Rove says:

    132. KB

    Well, I have to put this carefully…

    A friend of mine emailed me a clip to a movie that involved two “Russian” men and a “Sarah Paylin” look-a-like.

    Have you seen the clip too? Dont lie!

  139. Tim Van says:

    maybe 2 threads- one for unicorn fantasyland mccainiacs and another for kool aid drinking obamabots.

    just kidding.

  140. Bobby says:

    Tina,

    Really? About the CBS poll?

  141. knova_red says:

    133-oooh now we eat our own. Why do they all come out at the same time?

  142. Tina says:

    Yup, I picked up a troll at another site.

  143. Brutus says:

    #126

    True.

    Trouble is the Gov’t Workers Organization is probably more powerful than a teacher’s union.

  144. Tim Van says:

    aatx, both our votes don’t matter.at least at the national level.

  145. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “froze federal hiring and let the federal workforce decrease”

    So what about the FBI, CIA, Border Patrol, Homeland Security, etc, etc…? These agencies have seen some of the largest growth.

  146. KeyBored says:

    MDefl

    Obama’s disadvantages are more than just the obvious, He’s running against the Rep machine which is usually very formidable. Plus, John McCain is a popular senator and true war hero.

    kb

  147. Tina says:

    Policy 2.111

  148. Eph_Rove says:

    What is this “Policy 2.111” stuff?

  149. Mike Force says:

    What is policy 2.111?

  150. knova_red says:

    145-Them too. There is always fat in any bueracracy.

  151. Ice Cream Man says:

    Aren’t they all the same person with multiple names…

  152. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “both our votes don’t matter.”

    Yeah, it’s really hard to convince people otherwise. From talking to people, it’s almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy. They think their vote doesn’t matter, so they don’t go, and then the party with the advantage wins big. I bet you if everyone voted in TX and NY who thought along those lines, both states would be closer.

  153. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “Obama’s disadvantages”

    Sounds like you’re trying to lower expectations, KB.

  154. bonncaruso says:

    And Obama’s advantages are just as obvious: a brilliant campaign, a second-to-second response machine, an unflappable candidate running against a war hero running a god awful campaign with a vice-presidential candidate who is so unprepared for the job that just oodles of GOP top brass are gnashing their teeth. Palin may give red meat to the extreme right base of the party, but her red meat does not taste good to the independents.

    So, enjoy unicorn land. I like Mac, but he has been running a terrible campaign, from the first day on.

  155. Howard Dean says:

    Oil $66.75

  156. KeyBored says:

    Eph_Rove

    Er, I’ve seen clips like that several times, but to be honest, Sarah Palin was NOT in them.

    kb

  157. knova_red says:

    153-Americans are slowly but surely segregating themselves into regions where they can be with people like themselves. Eventually America will self partition.

  158. knova_red says:

    So, enjoy unicorn land. I like Mac, but he has been running a terrible campaign, from the first day on.

    Does that mean that you for the rest of the day you are denying us your presence and advice?

  159. Eph_Rove says:

    157. LOL!

    At least you have a sense of humor KB.

    This clip didnt have Sarah Palin but another women who looked just like her. At least from the neck up!!

  160. Brutus says:

    #156

    How soon before Chavez does another bonehead move because of oil prices?

  161. Polaris says:

    As much as I’d like to blame Soros, that’s too simple. The problem with the market is simple and can be summed up in two words (esp with the huge losses during the witching hour):

    Hedge Funds.

    I am about to shock myself, but I seriously starting to think that institutional hedge funds need to be banned.

    -Polaris

  162. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “Palin may give red meat to the extreme right base of the party, but her red meat does not taste good to the independents.”

    Illustrated by the AP poll – Does the candidate have the right experience to be President?

    McCain – 60-23 yes
    Obama – 46-41 yes
    Biden – 62-20 yes
    Palin – 55-30 no

  163. Polaris says:

    Yes there were some bad earnings reports today but even WITH those bad earnings in a recession the market should be at least a 1000 points higher than it is.

    This is sheer lemminglike, panic selling and the bottom will continue to be tested until all the stupid money (Hedge Fund Money) is gone.

    -Polaris

  164. KeyBored says:

    Aaron_in_TX

    I’ve been a Democrat all my life, but because I live in pro-America, I’m voting for John McCain.

    kb

  165. Jake says:

    138 – Actually, I think I saw a small portion of that clip on the morning news today. Frankly, I don’t think she looks that much like Palin, but I guess if you indulge your fantasies…. mechhh! I think I’m going to throw up.

  166. Howard Dean says:

    McCain – 60-23 yes
    Obama – 46-41 yes
    Biden – 62-20 yes
    Palin – 55-30 no

    Comment by Aaron_in_TX

    WOW 46% say Obama does?

    That is BAD news!

  167. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “Americans are slowly but surely segregating themselves into regions where they can be with people like themselves.”

    Or they’re just searching for places with the lifestyles they like. Which just happen to attract people of a certain persuasion.

  168. Polaris says:

    AITX,

    The experience issue doesn’t matter for the bottom of the ticket. It never has. For those that won’t vote for Mac because of Palin’s lack of experience, they weren’t going to vote for Mac anyway. This is pretty normal.

    -Polaris

  169. knova_red says:

    163- so less than 50% think that Obama has the right experience to be president. Thanks for pointing that out.

  170. eric says:

    Aaron, the trouble with your point is two fold, first, she isn’t running for prez, and second, your guy is running for prez and is only at 46. That is stunning.

  171. MDefl says:

    Uh oh, the dems are starting to eat themselves. LOL! Look, ATX and KB aside, watch the trolls spin their venom tonight.

    You can always tell someone who has received instructions on how to dampen enthusiasm on GOP sites. Whenever Mac has a good poll, they come out of the woodwork.

    Part of the “nothing to see here folks” strategy.

  172. Brutus says:

    #162

    I know it’s a fantasy to blame Soros, but he’s the personification of all those types of “experts” that seem to know what is going on and did nothing.

    Actually, I expect hedge funds to die away based on the recent market. Some will remain, but not to the extent of now and capitalized to a much smaller level.

    Natural selection in the market.

  173. Eph_Rove says:

    Jake – you need to see the unedited internet clip. Much better.

  174. Howard Dean says:

    Yahoo headline:

    Poll: Obama and McCain running even in homestretch

  175. Jesus is coming - look busy says:

    rdelbov i dare you to actually spell Obama’s name right in your posts.

    And Tina please take the midol, the blood flood just isnt doing it for me

  176. MDefl says:

    Aaron,

    Thanks for that awesome info! You are the best. So Mac leads in that cateogry 60 to 46. You are awesome.

  177. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “so less than 50% think that Obama has the right experience to be president.”

    True. But Obama also led by double digits every other issue, except national security, which he trailed by 5 or 11, RV / LV. Again, the poll obviously screened out a lot of democrats.

  178. MDefl says:

    Dave W,

    Can you check the IP address of 176? I suspect someone is using multiple handles.

  179. Polaris says:

    Lol, lol!

    CBS is still pushing the meme that early voting means huge trouble for McCain and that early voting is supposed to favor republicans.

    Idiots! Absentee voting does traditionally favor republicans, but early voting (as we saw in 2004) is fairly Dem heavy. Add in the fact that Obama has made it part of his ground game to get his base to the polls early. CBS is assuming that the people left will split the same way as the polls.

    NO! It just means that those that will vote later, are that much more republican. There is only so much you can squeeze out of early voting.

    Early voting other than sheer numbers means very little.

    -Polaris

  180. Darrell says:

    I left NY state years ago when it lost its brain and elected Mario Cuomo, and its been a dismal failure as a state ever since. Its hopelessly broken. Taxes through the roof. No jobs. So many on welfare. Its a liberal mecca now. So if you want to do your patriotic duty AITX, just move to NY and you will know what its like to pay up in taxes.

  181. Sharon says:

    I realize I am financially challenged when it comes to understanding the market but….I still think there are people with big money that are messing with it just to keep people scared. Most people don’t understand the market, yours truly, but they do know that when it is down it is not a good thing. I asked Polaris several weeks ago if it was possible that the high money people could be doing this just to keep McCain in the negative numbers. He said even though people like Soros and others are billionare’s it would take trillions of dollars to mess with the market like this. Still…makes you wonder when it keeps acting the way it does. I am sure Polaris is correct but it just seems to be one more thing that people will and do associate with McCain.

    By the way I am in Florida and Obama ads are non stop. You almost think his ads are the program with a little mixture of a storyline of some sort mixed in. He is really running some killer ads and so far there has been no McCain ads to this date. Worrisome!

  182. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “So Mac leads in that cateogry 60 to 46.”

    Mac always led the experience category by a decent margin. That’s a given.

  183. MDefl says:

    ATX,

    Repeat after me dude!

    Ain’t no stoppin Mac now, he’s on the move. He be grovin!

  184. Eph_Rove says:

    181. Ditto. I left in 1995 and hate going back even to visit.

    Next to NJ the worst state in the union to raise a family and work.

  185. Polaris says:

    #173 I expect most of the Hedge Funds to die too….but until they do, they are doing incredible damage to the market and thus the economy until they bottom out.

    -Polaris

  186. bonncaruso says:

    “Does that mean that you for the rest of the day you are denying us your presence and advice?”

    Nope. I help support this website with my money just like many of you, and it is oh so fun to watch republican rage.

  187. Tina says:

    There is commentary on cOlorado Early voting – and MAC is doing well.

  188. Polaris says:

    #187 Just as long as you agree to stay for conservative gloating on 5 Nov….

    -Polaris

  189. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “you will know what its like to pay up in taxes.”

    The sales tax in Texas is 1-2% higher than many other states. I don’t know about the property tax rates in other states, but I know it can get pretty brutal here depending on your county.

  190. Aaron_in_TX says:

    But we don’t have a state income tax, which is pretty darn nice. Cost of living / housing is also probably the best value in the nation.

  191. dblaikie says:

    I see that Boncarruso has been here to share his wit and wisdom. Anyone who is a fan of Chuck Todd is always good for a few laughs.

  192. KeyBored says:

    McCain’s American Idol Make-Up Artist Makes Big Bucks
    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/sleuth/2008/10/mccains_american_idol_make-up.html

    “Tifanie White, who reportedly has done makeup for the shows “So You Think You Can Dance” and “American Idol,” was paid a total of $8,672.55 in September by the McCain-Palin campaign, according to the campaign’s latest monthly financial report filed this week with the Federal Election Commission. She was paid $5,583.43 the previous month, records show.”

    There’s a joke or two in there, but I’m showing restraint.

    kb

  193. GPO says:

    Im raising a family in NYC and it aint easy

  194. eric says:

    How much did the Obama/Biden campaign dish out for botox and hair plugs for Biden? MSM do your job!

  195. Darrell says:

    and there was that recent report of Michelle Obama ordering a meal at that hotel in NY that is on par with Robin Leech and lifestyles of the rich and famous.

  196. Eph_Rove says:

    GPO- the only thing I miss about NY is getting Kosher meat. That’s about it.

  197. Polaris says:

    AITX,

    I agree that living in Texas is a good value even with the Sales Tax. The only place that’s a better value is AK (which as no tax at all) IMHO. I grew up in Washington which had no Income tax either.

    Darn nice.

    -Polaris

  198. Ash says:

    Some CNN polls (copied from pollster.com):

    Nevada 700 LV, 3.5%
    Obama 51, McCain 46

    North Carolina 644 LV, 4%
    Obama 51, McCain 47

    Ohio 737 LV, 3.5%
    Obama 50, McCain 46

    Virginia 647 LV, 4%
    Obama 54, McCain 44

    West Virginia 674 LV, 4%
    McCain 53, Obama 44

  199. Robbie says:

    Thank goodness this will all be over two weeks from now. “It’s the end of the world as we know and I feel fine.” I think.

  200. knova_red says:

    and it is oh so fun to watch republican rage.

    See that’s the humorous thing about you. Is your life so devoid of anything worthwhile that coming here and telling us how worthless we are is fun? After it is all over and let’s assume Obama wins what are you going to do for fun? What will you do heaven forbid if he loses?

    I think I said long ago, that Red Hat ladies and Shriners are amusing to me, but I don’t show up at their meetings and act like a t urd in the punchbowl. Let us have our fun. What’s it to you if we are wrong. What’s it to you if we are right?

    You know, I will bet that someone here actually has some psychological training, perhaps they can tell us what motivates your type of behavior. I am actually curious.

  201. Polaris says:

    #200 Sure they are. No work (no internals); no love from us.

    If CNN wants us to take their polls (work) seriously, they need to show their work.

    -Polaris

  202. Ash says:

    Still trying to locate the college girlfriend who stole that CD from me, Robbie. Though I guess CDs are old technology now. 🙂

  203. Brutus says:

    With all the work they spent on “Hair Club” Joe, you would think that “O” would as least get his ears bobbed.

    It must be hard for him to stand steady in a stiff wind.

  204. Phil says:

    If those CNN state polls are correct, we are talking about a landslide. However, CNN always overpolls Dems. They gave Kerry a lead in state after state which he actually lost.

  205. Polaris says:

    #200 Just for example, if Mac is actually down 10 in VA, then he is NOT within MoE in Ohio and NV. He just ISN’T. These states do not poll independantly.

    -Polaris

  206. Ash says:

    #204 I doubt CNN cares about anything other than what ratings these will garner. And maybe not getting sued.

  207. DWu says:

    CK #93 — very good point. The more the Left piles on Palin, the more she scores huge — eg., debate, SNL, rallies. She’s really a secret weapon.

    (Cue trolls showing negative SP polls)

  208. KeyBored says:

    Polaris

    No income tax in Fl either, and we have the RAYS.

    GO RAYS!

    kb

  209. knova_red says:

    211-hopefully one of your teams wins. It gives me hope that my beloved Nationals might after years of futility sometime, say 2016, actually make it to the playoffs. I’d be happy with a winning record.

  210. Frank says:

    Any news on the new CBS poll?

    Frank

  211. joe six pack says:

    F’ing dow-

    Every time Mccain gets close to a surge in the polls, a huge headwind hits him

  212. DWu says:

    MDefl:

    I think you’ll be eating well, and cheaply, in your future.

    I suggest a 1982 Bordeaux, or perhaps a Grand Cru Burgundy from the restaurant’s wine list…

  213. Why does CNN even bother, those results are asinine.

  214. knova_red says:

    214-Hey it looks like Tupperware was up 15%. Looks like people are going to eat more leftovers.

  215. Brutus says:

    Biggest ratings for Gap-Toothed Hoosier and SNL with McCain and Palin.

    Some may have hoped to see them slip up. I suspect it was the “silent majority” and for many one of the few chances they have to see them.

    In Palin’s case I suspect that she turned many away from the dark side. She just seems so honest.

  216. Polaris says:

    #207 That’s just it. CNN has a horrible record at state polling even when they are being (or trying to be) honest…which does not seem to be the case this time around.

    I strongly suspect it’s more “nothing to see here”. I really am starting to think that the MSM is trying to keep these national and state poll numbers depressed as deep and as long as possible (otherwise why care if one or two show a MoE race?….yet AP is apparently ready to fire their pollster!)

    -Polaris

  217. Bobby says:

    Liberal Media ALERT:

    Is Palin a liability? – Headline on Yahoo!

    Trying to counterbalanced that dead even race are we?

  218. KeyBored says:

    DWu

    Sarah Palin’s Flameout: $150,000, the Vice Presidency, Sinking Poll Numbers, and More
    http://www.usnews.com/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2008/10/22/sarah-palins-flameout-150000-the-vice-presidency-sinking-poll-numbers-and-more.html

    Poll: Obama opens biggest lead over McCain
    Dem leads rival by 10 points among registered voters in NBC/WSJ survey
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27297013/

    “In addition, for the first time, more voters have a negative opinion of her than a positive one. In the survey, 47 percent view her negatively, versus 38 percent who see her in a positive light.

    That’s a striking shift since McCain chose Palin as his running mate in early September, when she held a 47 to 27 percent positive rating.”

    Just doing my job…

    kb

  219. MDefl says:

    “Nothing to see here folks. Move along”.

  220. MDefl says:

    Wait until next week. The msm literally becomes unhinged!

  221. Polaris says:

    Everyone,

    DJ Drummond does it again. More required reading:

    http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/10/22/odds-at-ends-the-pew-and-battleground-polls-with-a-gallup-chaser.php

    While DJ Drummond says he confirms an Obama lead, if you read his corrected numbers and account for the MoE, most of the polls we follow are either tied (statistically) or show a very narrow Obama lead at worst.

    What makes this article “must read” is DJ’s explaination of what makes a set of polls a “valid” measure of an unknown demographic and why the polls this year fail dramatically.

    It’s one of the best statistical arguments for partisan weighing I’ve seen yet on the blogosphere.

    -Polaris

  222. MDefl says:

    Say what you will about my Dem friend (we have been close since we were 11 years old) but after the birth of my first daughter 8 years ago, he bought us a $800 bottle of wine.

    The baby had a tough time drinking all of it in one sitting.

  223. KeyBored says:

    knova_red

    Thanks, we’re hopeful here for sure. But win or lose, it’s all a big win for the Tampa Bay area.

    We get the Super Bowl too this season.

    kb

  224. Brutus says:

    kb,

    very timely reporting

    looks like it is backed up by the poll gap closing

    Phillies in 6.

  225. Polaris says:

    #221 Then I’ll have to fisk that poll. Just doing my job 😀

    -Polaris

  226. hugh says:

    Just got a solicitation for donation on my email from the obama campaign. Are they allowed to spam me without permission? Anyone know?

  227. KeyBored says:

    MDefl

    Ya gotta cut it with some water, geez.

    kb

  228. bonncaruso says:

    “What will you do heaven forbid if he loses?”

    Go on living and enjoying life.

    And you?

  229. MDefl says:

    I didn’t want to deprive my newborn of the best bottle of wine she will ever have (assuming a life span of 88 years) by cutting it with water. That is just plain un-american.

  230. MDefl says:

    #231,

    Probably jump out my window. Thankfully, I am on the 1st floor.

  231. Sy says:

    Why are the Democrats keep on attacking Palin? I mean, from all indications, they think Palin is not a factor a month ago. Yet the attacks keep on coming.

    There is a reason. THEY KNOW SARAH PALIN IS A HUGE DRAW AND THEY ARE SCARED TO DEATH.

    Highest VP Debate rating EVER.
    Highest rating for SNL in 14 years.
    HUGE rally crowds WHEREEVER she goes.

  232. KeyBored says:

    MDefl 232

    Well, that’s true.

    kb

  233. TimVan says:

    deflav,

    re post 176, i checked that ip address, only 3 posts in total: one as midol, a second as Tim V and this last one. The poster, posts once a month and always suggests that Tina take some midol.I think Dave should ban that IP.

  234. MDefl says:

    I want to sincerely than ATX for that info on McCain V Obama earlier. Keep up the great work!

  235. MDefl says:

    Multiple handles is a bannable offense per Dave W.

  236. MDefl says:

    than should be thanks!

  237. victrc says:

    #231 work tirelessly to make sure the public is aware of everythi g he does in office and be a thorn in congress side doing whatever I can to make sure their agenda is tempered as Much as possible so we don’t turn too far left, so far that it takes decades to reverse. Oh, and pray were not attacked because we won’t be prepared to withstand it or respond

  238. sam says:

    “#221 Then I’ll have to fisk that poll. Just doing my job

    -Polaris”

    Good luck with that poll. It does not even ask the party ID question. For all you know, it is a poll of Peter Hart’s agency.

  239. KeyBored says:

    Brutus

    I just hope were not gonna get constant stories about Philly Cheesesteaks.

    kb

  240. DWu says:

    MDef,

    Can you reveal the $800 wine…and your friend? I want to be his friend too.

    BTW – right on cue a troll uses a heavily skewed Dem poll (Obama +10) to show that, guess what…hold on now…hold on…hold on for the punchline…..

    Dems don’t like Sarah Palin!

    Shocking!!!

  241. MDefl says:

    Of course, Yahoo’s version of “Nothing to see here folks”, is that Palin is drag on the ticket.

    Libs, you are sadly, tragically mistaken if you really buy into that. Palin connects with the very people that the elites in NY and LA simply don’t understand.

    Keep it coming though. It all works in our favor.

  242. knova_red says:

    231-If you have seen of my prior posts you will find that I would do the same, just figure out a way to work a little harder and keep those who depend on me for a paycheck employed.

    But again, for someone who has his life planned out for him,you seem to spend an inordinate amount of time here telling us we are all wrong. Is it a self esteem thing with you?

  243. DWu says:

    knova,

    Great point re the house troll. I always wonder why they come on to this site just to try to poke fingers in our eyes?

    For someone who is living a “happy life’ it is odd behavior.

    I think we know the truth. It’s a sad lonely life when you’re lurking around the internet trying to annoy folks.

    Very sad. And that won’t change no matter who wins in Nov.

  244. Robbie says:

    I know Robert Novak is not popular here because he is a conservative first and a Republican second, but he has been very accurate in the concerns he has raised about McCain’s campaign. In today’s update he makes two disappointing comments.

    “The tidal wave this year has three causes: the economic meltdown falling on GOP shoulders, McCain’s poorly run campaign, and the enthusiasm for Sen. Barack Obama.”

    “Then there is the talk of the “Bradley Effect:” White voters, eager to be considered racially tolerant, tell pollsters they will vote for Obama, and then vote for McCain. It’s not clear this “effect” is much more than a theory spurred by suspicions of widespread secret racism.”

    McCain could well win, but the down ballot races look terrible. Tom Feeney, a staunch conservative, is in deep trouble in a very conservative Florida district. He was Speaker of the Florida House during the recount in 2000. I guess it says something that Republicans will throw him out will Democrats keep William Jefferson.

    Also consider this nugget. Barrack Obama is poised to become just the third Democrat since 1944 to win more than 50% of the popular vote. That encompasses 16 presidential election cycles. Nuggets like that show how bad the Republican brand is.

  245. Jeff S. says:

    #234-You nailed it. The more ferocious and frequent the attacks are on Palin is a sure sign that the Dems and msm ( is that a redundency?) are geting a bit edgy.

  246. bartman says:

    Polaris,

    Thanks for #224. Not being a statistics genius this made some sense to me and allowed me to come to my own conclusions….

    A. I find it hard to believe that support among declared Republicans can be swayed as much as some of these polls say. Both parties are very motivated by negativity no matter what the pro-Obama media say. When you hate the other party/candidate you don’t get over it after one debate or a market drop.

    2. I truly believe the undecideds are where it has been slow go and that is where we should see movement. The associations and lack of experience DO work on these people (if they are real independents/undecideds).

    C. Polls are for the buyer not public consumption. Polls for the media are just propaganda influencing votes.

  247. Brutus says:

    #242

    Unless you have a specialty food from Tampa Bay, expect it.

    Likewise, I’m also tired of looking at that Ray fish tank. Especially when one pops up its little tail and impales a kid ala Crocodile Man.

  248. geauxlsu says:

    Let’s face it…liberals are basically bitter people. They enjoy spreading their melancholy and misery to everyone with whom they come in contact. I am always amused at the comments here from the trolls who seem to enjoy attacking the optimism of those who post here. I suspect there is real fear there or they wouldn’t feel nor have the desire to monitor what is going on at this site.

  249. DWu says:

    Robbie,

    No doubt it’s a bad year for Repubs. No doubt the Repubs deserve much of the blame.

    And we have a relatively weak Repub candidate who is running a relatively weak campaign, IMO.

    That said, we have a race almost within the MOE and with BIG MO on MAC’s side.

    A good Dem candidate in this cycle would be up 58-42.

    Yet, we have a certain troll here who calls Obama “teflon.” LOL!!! 🙂

  250. TimVan says:

    We need Biden in PA these last few days. Maybe he and Murtha could do a limo tour together through Western PA.

  251. Polaris says:

    #221 first off this is a stale poll. It’s almost a day old.

    Continuing….

    The next thing I notice is that both parties are TIED for enthuisiasm with 83% of both candidate’s supporters “definately” voting for their guy.

    The next thing I notice is a LOT of what is called ‘push’ polling in the business. I notice that Bush/McCain questions are put next to each other but not questions about Obama and the Dem congress/Pelosi. Not cricket.

    I also note that NBC dishonestly doesn’t ask the partisanship of their voters. However I can perwinkle it out. I make one (very fair) assumption. GOP voters will want a GOP congress as a generic principle. Dem voters will want a Dem congress as a generic principle and Indie voters won’t care.

    With that assumption, we can find the partisan mix on page 15, question 13.

    This is a (get a load of this):

    49D/38R/13I poll.

    D+11 for a 10 point lead.

    T-R-A-S-H

    -Polaris

  252. knova_red says:

    246- at least he responded that he will go on with his life. That’s cool. But as many of them as I have asked, I have never gotten an answer as to the deep down motivation for them to tell us how whron we are. We get answers like “I like to see republican rage” but they fail to articulate why seeing that rage is important to them. Of course finding that out might take years of therapy on their part.

  253. DWu says:

    geaux,

    Very true. Libs/Dems are much more unhappy than cons/Repubs.

    Republicans always poll ridiculously higher than Dems in the “happiness poll” that comes out annually.

    All one needs to do is to go to the kooky Left sites and see the anger and hatred over there.

    All one needs to do is attend coctail parties in NYC or DC (which I have to do for work and social reasons) to see the anger and angst. Everyone at those parties seems to be on meds to make them feel better at life.

    When I get back to Southern Virginia (near Richmond) I see a much happier America.

  254. Brutus says:

    #255

    Actually it’s the therapist who can’t articulate.

    Spare time between clients.

  255. bartman says:

    geauxlsu,

    UGA v LSU
    UT v Bama

    Whatcha thinkin’?

  256. lisab says:

    the economy still sucks …

    i just saw a pair of 100% silk stockings at agent provocateur …

    25 british pounds!

    that is insane money …

    i blame the republicans

  257. Addisonst says:

    Aaron are you going to be one of the rioters if Obama loses? I could use a new flat screen tv so if you decide to protest w/ looting please get me a 52 incher.

  258. MDefl says:

    DW,

    I just called my wife who saved the bottle – 1982 Chateau La Lagune. I think it probably costs more now.

    My opinion? I can’t tell the difference between a $20 bottle of wine and the $800 one from what I can recall. I do remember we were under strict instructions to let it sit open for a minimum of 5 hours.

  259. UncleSamIAm says:

    “I would have vetoed literally every spending bill, even those that I voted for, if I were president of the United States.”

    — John McCain, October 22, 2008 interview on CNN

    He’s against it at the same time he is for it. And you wonder why he’s losing?

  260. geauxlsu says:

    I would LOVE for UT to beat Bama (Nick Satan and all)…but can’t see it happening.

    The LSU-UGA game has me a little worried. Our defense was great against S. Carolina in the 2nd half…but everyone in the nation saw what FL did to us. We seem to be healthier and should have everyone back on defense, while they are banged up and starting a couple of freshmen and soph on the O line. It is here in BR and so….with my purple and gold glasses firmly in place…i say Tigers win by 3.

  261. knova_red says:

    251-Saying that libs are bitter is a generalization. I know a lot of libs who are not bitter, but they tend to drive Lexus’s and live in gated communities and have accumulated enough wealth that they will be little affected by the government programs coming our way.

    Seriously, we all know some libs who aren’t bitter…just misguided.

  262. bartman says:

    RE: #260

    Aaron, if you have any extra Obama for prez signs please send me one. My office is in the “hood.” Also, if I could get a bumper sticker it might help me get back and forth to work.

  263. Cam Rep says:

    “Um, ah, breathalyzer, um”
    –Barack Obama

  264. knova_red says:

    looks like SamIam got out of freshman english for the day.

  265. Robbie says:

    252

    I agree with everything you wrote. Aside from the presidential race, I just find it discouraging that good conservative House members in Republican districts are about to be bounced. Tom Feeney is a good guy.

    Even if McCain wins, this is where we need to rebuild the conservative movement. The House is where we need to make the stand. Losing guys like this only makes the task that much tougher.

  266. MDefl says:

    Aaron,

    Could you pick me a Blue Ray player? Thanks.

  267. Brandon says:

    I really wish I didn’t have to sort through all of these trollish posts to find the good, informative ones.

  268. knova_red says:

    268-The house is where we lost it between 2000 and 2006 when our party “went native” in Washington and decided they liked congressional perks more than the people who elected them.

  269. MDefl says:

    Show me a poll that has Feeney losing and then show me the demographics to prove that it is a “conservative” district.

  270. Addisonst says:

    Knova,

    I think a very large % of them personalize politics. Rejection of their candidate is rejection of them.

    If you thought they were angry after 2004, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

    They are already preparing the Gop stole the election narrative. In the liberal’s world, pre election and exit polls are better indicators of how the vote was than the actual vote.

    If Mac does lose, very little of the Right commentary will say it’s b/c Americans are stupid. We know our candidate is flawed and he’s run a mediocre campaign. Liberals usually think if their guy lost it’s that people are stupid or the election was stolen.

    I’m deep in the heart of Obama land here in Chicago. I will not be comfortable heading outside after the networks declare Mac the winner.

  271. bartman says:

    Go Tigers! (I’m from ET and don’t speak cajun)

    We didn’t exactly soften UGA up for you a couple of weeks ago. Of course the only thing being softened up in Big Orange Country these days is that big orange belly.

    I don’t expect much from UT but I’ll be watching. I agree LSU is due to pull this one out but both teams have multiple personalities.

  272. MDefl says:

    Knova,

    I totally agree that the majority of House R’s went native after Bush was elected. Of course, the House now being run by Dems is in even worse shape.

  273. geauxlsu says:

    Bartman…I’ll definitely be humming “Rocky Top” on Saturday! Geaux Vols.

  274. DWu says:

    MDefl:

    🙂 LOL! Thanks!

    Just as I suspected — a 1982 Bordeaux!

    Re good versus great wine – I was the same way until I got really into wine. Still, it often is hard to tell.

    Keep drinking!!! 🙂

  275. Drowsy says:

    Isn’t SamIam the role played by Sean Penn when he stayed in character as the slow-witted father trying to adopt?

  276. KeyBored says:

    sy

    The “attacks” on Palin are brought on by herself from her statements, and also from her actions as Gov and VP candidate. Much of the negative press is from the right. Sarah Palin has become a national joke as evidenced by late nigh comedians (who also ridiculed Clinton, Gore, Edwards and other dems).

    Sarah Palin Jokes
    http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/sarahpalin/a/palin-jokes.htm

    “She kept reaching out to Joe Sixpack. That’s because her answers make more sense after six beers.” –David Letterman

    “Not only is she young, they’re saying she’s the prettiest candidate for Vice President since John Edwards.” –Jimmy Kimmel

    “Palin and McCain are a good pair. She’s pro-life and he’s clinging to life.” –Jay Leno

    kb

  277. knova_red says:

    I think a very large % of them personalize politics.

    In this day and age we personalize everything. We have our share of bomb throwers also. That said, to the Democrats politics is bloodsport.

  278. Polaris says:

    Michael Baron is a tool. He knows the polls are trash. He admits (on Hannity) that the differences in the numbers for both Obama and McCain are extreme….but can’t get himself to draw the obvious conclusion in public.

    -Polaris

  279. bartman says:

    Oh btw, really cool that I can use my NOBAMA sign for the UT/Bama game Saturday! Coincidence? I think not.

  280. Ice Cream Man says:

    Just listened to Michael Barone Based on his analysis of primary results he feels that 80percent of undecideds will break for McCain and speculates Obama will underperform his topline poll numbers.

  281. Polaris says:

    #281 I mean Michael Barone. Sorry.

    Actually on Bennet this morning, I heard at least one Obama caller call in and denounce the crooked system and the polls for why Obama was only up by five.

    If Obama loses (as I think we will)…..look out. He may take a page out of his Kenyan buddy/cousin Odinga. We know how that worked out…..

    -Polaris

  282. eric says:

    Polaris, Barone did make one good point about O usually getting no more support on election day than he had in the final poll. I think you’ve made this point, which is an excellent one. If O is under 50% going into election day, Mac has a good shot, because nearly all undecided will go Mac.

  283. DWu says:

    kb,

    But Sarah Palin knows more about the Constitution than you do as evidenced by your fiasco here yesterday!

    So, let me get this straight; she’s dumb, but she knows more than you do.

    And that makes you….

    hmmm….

    Help me out here….

  284. MDefl says:

    Aaron,

    I also need a new steam cleaner. You know, if you have a chance. The Blue Ray is the first priority though.

  285. Polaris says:

    #283 Yes, Michael’s Barone’s estimate of the undecided vote almost exactly mirror’s my own and for what I suspect are the same reasons.

    What that means is this:

    If Barack Obama is under 50% (say 47 or 48%) on election day, Obama loses.

    Period.

    -Polaris

  286. Cam Rep says:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27323854?GT1=43001

    McCain might play Wright card, after all. Obama to respond….by attacking Palin!

    Memo to Sen. McCain: DO THIS!!!

  287. Drowsy says:

    #283

    Seems like a good escape clause for all the “experts”. They can use the independents as reason for the poll uncertainties and their failure to adequately get good results.

    Perfect CYA.

  288. geauxlsu says:

    When Dan Rather says the media has been unfair to Palin…you know it’s bad. He admitted that if she had made the Biden gaffes, she would have been crucified even more.

  289. George aka Freemarketer says:

    MDefl,

    Is that the Sullivan’s in King of Prussia? Sully’s in Palm Desert (CA) used to be my top restaurant, but sadly, the brand there has gone downhill over the years. I hope back East that they are on top of their game. I gave up on most of the chains, although I have never been dissatisfied with Morton’s (even in Hong Kong). If you ever make it to San Diego, try Donovan’s chophouse (there’s only one that I know of).

    Not sure which cuts you prefer, but the filet with mushroom duxelles is a good pick. I’d opt for Grand Cru Burgundy or California Cab if you can; Bordeaux is much more suitable with lamb vice steak. Unless you have a peppercorn filet, then you can go bold with a Syrah.

    Speaking of which, I got a kick out of liberal reaction to this apparently fine Syrah label;

    http://www.seriouseats.com/2008/09/palin-syrah-sarah-sara-wine-drops-in-sales.html

    The Left never ceases to amaze me.

    One more thing, I contest AAITX’s assertion that the military will split 60-40 for Mac. With the energy and registration that I have seen (I am a Voting Officer out here at Pearl Harbor), I would put money on at least 70-30. Sadly, there is no way to measure this, but I would stake my reputation on AT LEAST that much, if not more. Of all the IA sailors and Marines (Individual Augmentees) who have returned from Iraq and Afghanistan to this duty station, I know of (count ’em!) ONE who is voting Obama. The rest are vocally concerned that he will render their sacrifices and mission over their moot by pulling out too quickly. We talk politics a lot more than people think we do; it’s not all hookers and beer onboard Navy ships or in the barracks. 😛

  290. Polaris says:

    #292 Every number I’ve seen regarding political preferences of military voters indicates it’s going to be at least 70-30 Mac in that demographic.

    -Polaris

  291. George aka Freemarketer says:

    “Over THERE”

    Typos…good enough for gov’t. work, though. 🙂

  292. George aka Freemarketer says:

    Tina,

    I know I asked you before, but which department are you in (DOD of Homeland Sec.?). I fear that if I go over to State after I retire that I might go native and become a Pinko (since there does not seem to be a solitary conservative residing at State).

  293. Ice Cream Man says:

    Polaris I heard you say it earlier and I believe it is true Barone said almost excatly what you said. he went on further to say that during the financial crisis Obama did nothing but unintelligent rhetoric…

  294. phyl says:

    Lorne Michaels, SNL producer is very impressed with Sarah Palin:

    “I think Palin will continue to be underestimated for a while. I watched the way she connected with people, and she’s powerful. Her politics aren’t my politics. But you can see that she’s a very powerful, very disciplined, incredibly gracious woman. This was her first time out and she’s had a huge impact. People connect to her.”

  295. Brutus says:

    #279

    The piling on and ridicule machine that is late night TV is self-fulfilling.

    Last week the stats were ~ 280 – 40 on the amount of jokes (GOP vs. DEM) zinged at the candidates.

    Biden by himself could easily generate 100 per week by himself.

    Considering the sources; gap-toothed hoosier, the great chin, and sarah silverman’s ex-boyfriend no wonder a McCain or Palin appearance brings up the numbers. Everyone wants to see someone real.

    End of ramble

  296. MDefl says:

    George,

    Are you from PA? The Sullivan’s I was referring to is the one in King of Prussia. I have not been there for almost 2 years but the last time I was there it was excellent. I usually stick with the bone-in Kansas City Strip but have had the 24 oz Porterhouse when I am very hungry.

    I just received a $99 special from Morton’s in KOP. My wife and I will definitely be having dinner there within the next month.

  297. DWu says:

    phyl:

    Great post. Everyone (even the trolls) knows it. There’s something about Sarah. That’s why they’re trying to detroy her.

  298. Ice Cream Man says:

    MDefl, always enjoyed Morton’s great steaks and potatoes julianne, But I like Ruth Chris Better…

  299. dblaikie says:

    Please let it happen. Oh how I hope that Obama will decide to make Sarah Palin an offical campaign issue. She only attracts huge crowds, gets great ratings, and puts in focus the unfairness of the media. To make her an issue would give McCain Pa., NC, Virgina, Ohio, Iowa and Michigan hands down. I hope that the Washington elite will not see how popular she is with middle class and blue collar folks and in their genius minds convince Obama to make her an issue.

  300. Llarry from Longview says:

    #302 — IA and MI? Um… No.

  301. DWu says:

    George,

    Thanks for your service and I like your choices in restaurants/wine.

    Just got back from the Central Coast of California — home of Rancho del Cielo, the Reagan Ranch.

    It still is Cowboy Country! Ronnie would be happy.

    Had some great steak and some great California Syrah and Pinot Noir out there.

    Wonderfully beautiful state with great food and wine…and screwed up folks. That said, more than 4 in 10 of them will still vote for MAC.

    Best sign I saw on my trip to CA (and I drove from Virginia) was on Highway 101 near Paso Robles:

    “USE YOUR BRAIN, VOTE FOR MCCAIN!”

  302. George aka Freemarketer says:

    POLARIS,

    Thanks for all the great analysis; you have been sustaining my confidence in MAC to at least make a good showing on Nov.4th if not win outright. I was worried for a while, and living in Hawaii aka “Kenya with pineapples” does not help to bolster my faith in the voting public. These are the people who bankrupted socialized medicine in barely half a year, after all.

    On a related note, my wife, a committed Canadian-born Hollywood lib herself, has seen the dark side of government medicine after a year of Navy and DOD civilian doctors caring for her needs. I think that I can bring her around on health care. Luckily, she forgot to reregister when she moved after her regrettable vote for Kerry in ’04, so she’s SOL this time around (and I refuse to offer my ballot even if I am from CA!). This makes up for all of our heated disputes this election cycle. 🙂

  303. Brutus says:

    #299

    Just remember to call that cut of meat a Kansas City Strip regardless of what it says on the menu or if the bone is attached or not.

    Irritates the hell out of NY elitists. I never use the NY word when I order.

  304. KeyBored says:

    DWu 286

    Maybe you missed my original post. Palin does not know the role of VP:

    Q: Brandon Garcia wants to know, “What does the Vice President do?”

    PALIN: That’s something that Piper would ask me! … [T]hey’re in charge of the U.S. Senate so if they want to they can really get in there with the senators and make a lot of good policy changes that will make life better for Brandon and his family and his classroom.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l40nrw3V3GA

    http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/10/palin-says-vice.html

    kb

  305. Addisonst says:

    Wow Big 3 Network new viewership is down in an exciting election year. Hmmm, I wonder why that is. In addition to the usual demographic issues that have people tuning out network news, might it be the over the top salivating over one candidate at the expense of another?

    My guess is that it’s not soc sec seniors in Boca tuning out the network casts. I wonder who’s leaving and how that might have some relationship to current polls with Obama getting 142% of the vote.

    We need a govt bailout that supports CBS and ABC merging.

  306. phyl says:

    300, DWu,

    I totally agree. Sarah Palin is a political superstar and the MSM/Obamabots have been trying to destroy her since day one. They fear her influence and their worst fears are coming true. She’s having an amazing impact at the rallies and she’s getting stronger dealing with the media’s knives as well.

  307. Robbie says:

    Mdefl

    There has been little polling on the Feeney race, but a DCCC poll showed Feeney trailing 58-38. Before I get skewered for believing a DCCC, let me say I don’t believe the poll. Still, Novak’s update says Feeney has consistently polled under 50% and even had to issue an apology commercial for his involvement with Abramoff.

    Maybe I went too far in claiming Feeney’s district was conservative, but it is definitely Republican leaning. The good news is Crist is on the scene and he might get Feeney over the top. Everything depends on McCain’s closing.

    If it is strong, it lifts everyone up. If not, we sink further.

  308. MDefl says:

    Thanks KB! We sure are proud Palin. Apparently she knows that there are 4 letters in jobs, TV was not available in 1929 and FDR was not President until 1932. She also has the manners to not ask a wheel chair bound person to stand up and take a bow.

  309. Robbie says:

    The Vice President serves as the President of the Senate and nothing says she can’t participate in shaping legislation. She can only vote in the case of a tie.

  310. DWu says:

    Addisonst — LOL!

    Always enjoy your posts!

  311. Rachel says:

    Hey guys!

    This has probably been discussed here all day, but I was reading Barone’s piece on the polls and noticed this:

    “A third problem is that an increasing number of Americans refuse to be polled. We can’t know for sure if they’re different in some pertinent respects from those who are willing to answer questions.”

    An increasing number refuse to be polled, eh? Sounds like the Bradley effect to me.

  312. Darrell says:

    307, the VP DOES preside over the senate, a fact that you didn’t know yesterday, and apparently forgot between yesterday and today. YOU are the loser on this issue.

  313. KeyBored says:

    MDefl

    Oh yeah? Well, Obama can wave his hand and a wheelchair bound person WILL stand up and bow.

    kb

  314. Marty Stolar says:

    Wednesday, October 22, 2008
    New flawed AP poll claims McCain and Obama are tied.
    The Associated Press has released a poll that shows a much closer race than any other poll out ther. Now, Liz “I know what kind of donuts John McCain really likes” Sidoti must have been gleeful that she was chosen to write John McCain’s “comeback” piece. (The infamous AP/McCain donut video is below.)

    But, the poll doesn’t make sense on many levels. Here’s one example: 45% of this poll’s respondents are evangelicals or born-again Christians (this is on page 20 of the poll’s crosstabs (it’s a pdf):

    The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP’s poll released today. That’s almost double the number – it’s totally implausible.

    In 2000 and 2004, there was a very aggressive push for the evangelical vote. In 2000, when the question was asked “Do you consider yourself part of the conservative Christian political movement,” 14% of voters said “yes” in exit polls. In 2004, when the question was changed to “Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?” – the very category AP uses in its current poll – 23% of voters said yes in exit polls.

    Did you get that? The percentage of evangelicals/born-agains voting in 2004 was 23%. The percentage of evangelicals/born-agains that AP included in their likely voters scenario is 44%. That’s almost twice as many. Consider that 79% of evangelicals voted Republican in the 2004 presidential elections, and we can assume that anyone calling themselves “born-again” might be more prone to voter Republican. This means AP disproportionately skewed its polling towards the GOP base. So it’s no surprise that the AP poll shows McCain doing better than in other polls.

    With such an outlier, one wonders why the brain trust at AP decided to move ahead releasing this poll. But, the AP brain trust loves McCain. It’s not just Sidoti. Remember, AP’s Washington bureau chief almost went to work for McCain. He’s in that donut video, too.

    As Nate Silver so clearly explains, the likely voter models being used by some pollsters, including AP’s partner, GfK, aren’t making sense. In fact, Nate has issued a challenge to the pollsters who have a wide gap in their models:
    I would like to issue a challenge to those pollsters like Franklin & Marshall and GfK which in spite of all the facts above, are showing a substantial shift toward the Republicans when they apply their likely voter models. E-mail me — my contact information is at the top of the page — and tell me why you think what you’re doing is good science.
    I would like to issue a challenge to the Associated Press, too: Put aside your friendship with John McCain, please. At least for the next two weeks, be the objective new source you used to be.

  315. DWu says:

    No, kb…

    I was actually laughing at you b/c as other folks made clear to you yesterday, it is you who knows nothing about the Constit.

    Do you want my pocket Constitution so you can study up? I kinda need it for work, but I’m sure I can find another copy somewhere.

    Or maybe you can give it to Joe Biden — the “smart guy” with the “Article I” gaffe in the debate.

    🙂

  316. MDefl says:

    Robbie,

    Relax my friend. R’s are going to lose some seats in the House and Senate. That is inevitable this year. However, the Dems have gift wrapped a couple of House races for us where their incumbent is imploding. Maloney is the best example but there are a couple of others like Murtha who may be in deep trouble. The R’s will probably lose 14 to 16 in the house and 3 to 5 in the Senate. Not great, but not a disaster either and it will represent the low mark for the GOP.

    The irony is that the future would be brighter for the GOP in congress if BO was elected. During my discussion today with my Dem source in Philly (yes, the one who bought us an $800 bottle of wine), he actually thought that the worse thing that could happen would be a Senate with 60 Dems. In that scenario, he believes that Obama would severely overreach and the Dems would risk the House in 10 and Senate in 12.

  317. Darrell says:

    314…I saw that too. I spoke to a guy over the weekend, who will vote McCain in the end. He said he never takes calls that he doesn’t know who is on the line per his caller ID. He runs his own business and doesn’t have time to waste. He said the phone rang, he thought it was a client calling right back so he picked it up. It was a national pollster. He got angry about it, and when asked who he was voting for, he hollered, RALPH NADER. They asking him how sure he was of that vote, and he said “I just told you didn’t I” and he hung up the phone.

  318. DWu says:

    Nice try Marty! 🙂

    That’s rich! A loony lefty claiming bias in a poll!!! 🙂 LOL!!

  319. MDefl says:

    DWu,

    While it is clear that is a mybarackobama.com strategy designed to dampen enthusiasm, I do think one issue should be addressed. Were evangelicals overpolled? I did not even think this was possible.

  320. Phil says:

    “the AP braintrust loves McCain”

    Bhahahahahahahahahahaha

  321. KeyBored says:

    DWu

    Come on, it was a dumb thing to say. And yes, Biden says dumb things to, but the difference is that on reflection, Biden realizes they were dumb.

    kb

  322. Darrell says:

    Biden never admits he was dumb. He is the smartest guy in the room…just ask him and he will tell you.

  323. MDefl says:

    KB,

    What the heck are you talking about? I have never heard Biden apologize for any of the stupid things he says. Then again, since the msm will not report it, he does not have to.

    Remember Biden thinks his boss is “clean, articulate, not ready for office and so on.

  324. Marv says:

    Folks

    Those of you who follow the day to day moves of the five tracking polls (Zogby, GWU/BG, Rasmussen, Gallup, and IBD/TIPP) know that they can be affected by big samples one way or the other during a single day of polling.

    The GWU/IBD and IBD/TIPP polls had big Obama days roll off and better than expected McCain days come on.

    Here is my question……which of these polls would you expect to show the first McCain lead? Are there any big Obama days remaining in any of the polls which will roll off soon?

    Polaris….this is probably a good question for you. I’ll stand by for someone to weigh in.

    Thanks,
    Marv

  325. Phil says:

    as Nate Silver clearly explains…..

    you lost me with that one

  326. MDefl says:

    Polaris,

    Can you comment on the % of evangelicals in the AP poll? Just curious as to what your thoughts are on this.

  327. Rachel says:

    With left-wing accusations of racism flying around like flies at a barbecue, I’m amazed that anyone who’s not a life-long strong Republican living in the middle of a Republican neighborhood would admit to planning on voting for McCain.

    I’ll wear my McCain shirt around and tell the world that I’m voting for McCain because I just dare anyone to try to call me a racist, but not everyone is willing to risk that kind of confrontation.

  328. KeyBored says:

    Darrell

    The guy does have a big ego and a bigger mouth, that’s true.

    kb

  329. Chuck Schick says:

    @307

    Oh please, saying the VP is in charge of the Senate is at worst poor choice of words.

    The VP is the highest ranking official of the Senate. The second is the president pro tempore, which right now is Robert Byrd, who acts in the VPs absence.

    Gore as you remember voted the 93 tax cuts into law on a tie. Of course the VP would at the least work with his party on policy on behalf of the Senate.

    On the other hand- Obama said he’d hand orders to his Joint Chiefs to end the Iraq War. Anyone who’s seen a Tom Clancy movie knows the Joint Chiefs are ADVISORY and hold no executive powers. Being that Obama is running for president, Id say thats a far worse boner.

  330. Chuck Schick says:

    Sorry- my above post should read “Of course the VP would at least work with his party on behalf of the PRESIDENT”

  331. Phil says:

    I’m not Polaris but I’d say Zogby might show a lead for McCain before any of the rest simply because it is a hard weight D +2. On the other hand, didn’t that poll show Obama up +28 today among indies? Obama up 28 among indi

  332. Phil says:

    indies?

    Nevermind.

  333. Cory says:

    Biden says dumb things because he never stops talking.

    When you say 10,000 things a day without taking any time between them to collect your thoughts, you occasionally say something really boneheaded.

    Palin says dumb things because it doesn’t appear that she knows much of anything. She’s trying hard, but the depth of knowledge just isn’t there to draw on when she gets off the talking points.

  334. yarrrr says:

    That IBD has McCain winning 18-24 year-olds…

  335. KeyBored says:

    MDefl

    I never said he admitted his errors (although he may have), I said he knew later he made an error. Palin probably had to be told by a staffer that she would not “be in charge” of senate or “make a lot of good policy changes” in the senate.

    kb

  336. MDefl says:

    Cory,

    Is this your version of insight? If so, it needs work.

  337. DWu says:

    kb,

    Clearly you have no clue about the Constit.

    That was made clear yesterday.

    So, again, you call Palin dumb, but she knows much more than you do about the COnstit.

    That makes you….

    That makes you…..

  338. Brandon says:

    New Thread above.

  339. MDefl says:

    KB,

    I guess Joe Gaffe called you personally to let you know that he is, indeed, an idiot.

    Wow! I see the Dems are in desperation mode tonight.

  340. Marv says:

    #334 Phil

    Zogby has three consecutive Obama +10 nights which will take until the weekend to roll off. I think that GWU/BG and IBD/TIPP have at least two pro-Mac days in a row (the last two).

    Marv

  341. Robbie says:

    Who the hell is Nate Silver? He runs his own website, BFD! I have my own website dedicated to firing a coach. Does that make me an expert? Of course not. This guy is just liberal who uses mathematical models to predict the race. He was also on ESPN2 yesterday claiming credit for choosing the Rays early in the year. He’s a fantasy baseball loser.

  342. MDefl says:

    Robbie,

    Which coach do you want fired and why?

  343. KeyBored says:

    DWu

    I don’t think I ever said she was dumb, I said she says dumb things. Anyone that could rise to be gov is not dumb. The problem I have with Palin is that she seems to be ignorant on a lot of issues.

    kb

  344. Sharon says:

    Did anyone hear Michael Barone on Hannity radio today? He was talking about the polls and he said that since 2004 party ID has changed. The dems now have an ID of +10. Polaris is that possible? I thought he was pretty much respected.

  345. Sharon says:

    258…being a Gator I hope it is Bama and LSU.

  346. DWu says:

    kb,

    Perhaps ignorant of a lot of things (like the rest of us)…except the role of VP.

    It is you who corners the market on that score.

    Agreed?

  347. DWu says:

    Sharon.

    In a “Joe Biden” word: No way.

    Don’t worry. We’ll see Dem +3 or 4, just like every other election in recent history.

  348. bartman says:

    Sharon,

    Being a Vol if the Gators play the Taliban I’m showing up in a turbin.

  349. Sharon says:

    352..ouch!

  350. bartman says:

    Sharon,

    I hate Vanderbilt worse. I tell my VU friends here in Nashville that I would rather die at UT Hospital than live at Vanderbilt Medical Center.

  351. jones says:

    Taliban is much better than a coke head gator.

  352. Polaris says:

    Funny how Nate Silver hasn’t complained about GfK until now. It depends on how “born again” is defined.

    This is still a D+6 Poll and Nate Silver complains that the R’s are overpresentended.

    Nate Silver needs to purchase a clue.

    -Polaris

  353. faithfullFan says:

    AddisonSt

    We’re neighbors,clark and buckingham.
    Obama loss not much different then anytime the cubs lose or for that matter win.

  354. Drew says:

    The Ayers interview comments stating he is a Marxist and Anarchist out if his own mouth has gotten no play in the media. Amazing how completely in the tank for Obama the empty suits are. I McCain and Palin win it will truly be a miracle.

    – Drew