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Some Tracking polls-why the election is in the bag for McCain

Well here are some tracking polls-couple still out

Hotline    47 Obama  42 McCain

GWU     49 Obama  47 McCain

Zogby    52 Obami   42 McCain

RAS       51 BHO      45  McCain

 UPDATED FOR GALLUP  orginal recipe

Gallup   50 BHO    McCain   45

Plus here is a National poll from F & M college that has Obama at 50 and 45  McCain

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyNOc08_release.pdf

This poll has a partisan breakdown of 43D  33R  22 I .  Right.  Generally decent polls for McCain and now as to the assured election results.  I early voted the other day and saw the magic words.  This video details it

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NF5Kdm4Eu6w

Posted by rdelbov at 12:40 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (193)

193 Responses to “Some Tracking polls-why the election is in the bag for McCain”

  1. Eph_Rove says:

    Why do you have Zogby on there?

  2. Tina says:

    Where’s the Christian Tracker?

  3. The Dawg says:

    FOLKS/POLICE ARE ALREADY TALKING ABOUT THE NEED TO NOT BE IN A CITY ON ELECTION NIGHT—-ESPECIALLY IF MAC WINS. IT WOULD BE INCREDIBLY DANGEROUS. EVEN IF OBAMA WINS DO NOT BE IN ANY DECENT SIZED CITY.

  4. Eph_Rove says:

    Christian family Tracker (posted previously)

    McCain 66
    Obama 28

  5. Eph_Rove says:

    soooooooooooooo

    MAC is down 5 points in a poll that’s D+10 ?????????

  6. Frank says:

    Okay friends,

    It’s that time again.

    Rasmussen results:

    October 11 51.90 – 44.56% Obama +7.34%
    October 12 51.09 – 45.02% Obama +6.07%
    October 13 50.43 – 44.69% Obama +5.74%
    October 14 50.23 – 44.60% Obama +5.63%
    October 15 49.98 – 44.60% Obama +5.38%
    October 16 49.85 – 46.28% Obama +3.57%
    October 17 50.34 – 45.88% Obama +4.46%
    October 18 50.25 – 45.46% Obama +4.79%
    October 19 50.73 – 44.63% Obama +6.10%
    October 20 49.55 – 45.80% Obama +3.75%
    October 21 50.19 – 45.64% Obama +4.55%
    October 22 ????? – ???? % Obama + ?? %

    Would someone give me the exact numbers please?

    Thanks

    Frank

  7. Justnashole says:

    The Mason/Dixon poll just released has McCain down 2 in VA: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/081022_Va_Mason-Dixon.pdf

    The breakdowns are very interesting. Anyone here live in Hampton Roads area? Looks like it’s gonna come down to there. This poll is good news. This election is going to be close.

  8. Tina says:

    I must have missed it on the other thread.

    I will report the Faux/OD polls.

    (I am calling it Faux – because I find myself flipping the channel a lot this election cycle). It seems that they love the Obumbler.

  9. Ponz says:

    Mason-Dixon also have McCain up 1 in Florida (3 point turnaround on their poll in early October).

  10. Darrell says:

    8–I live in VA Beach. the rally here for McCain/Palin was great. This is a military town and will go for McCain

  11. AF Rico says:

    (From last thread, repeat)

    I’m in Fairfax Co, and very in tune with what’s going on from Mt Vernon north to Alexandria. Closer you get to Arlington, more Dem it gets…further south you go, more Republican.

    I find it hard to believe that Obama is doing better than Kerry did in my section of Fairfax Co. Judging by the yard sign/bumper sticker battle, it’s pretty much a wash. If it’s a wash here in Fairfax Co, the rest of the state will pull McCain ahead.

    On top of the huge number of military voters in this state…I heard it was third in the country, though not sure.

    And the recent Military Times poll of military voters was 68-23.

    Last point is the fact the Republican GOTV has been outstanding. I’ve said it before, the GOP is nearly complete with their canvassing. That said, I’d be shocked if there were any houses that haven’t also been “hit” by the Obama storm troopers. They’ve been shipping them in by the hundreds from Maryland and DC.

  12. Polaris says:

    OK everyone,

    Here are the internals to the VA M-D poll:

    http://media.hamptonroads.com/media/flash/documents/masondixonpolloct22.pdf

    I reverse calculated the party weight:

    I get 36R/35D/29I

    However, while MD is a quality pollster, the internals (esp the regional internals) look wrong especially the 49O-38M lead for Obama with VA indies. I don’t buy that with the military support that Mac has and is reflected in this poll.

    I wonder about the sample space of this poll.

    Go to the link and judge for yourself.

    -Polaris

  13. jeffp says:

    Fox News- They played the new info audio of commie AYERS on all three shows (OReilly,AC,Gretta) last night and tied it to OBAMAs deception. They did a great job. Every news source should be playing that.

  14. Frank says:

    Friends,

    IBD/TIPP numbers:

    October 13 44.8 – 42.7 Obama +2.1%
    October 14 44.8 – 41.9 Obama +2.9%
    October 15 45.2 – 41.9 Obama +3.3%
    October 16 45.2 – 41.6 Obama +3.6%
    October 17 45.9 – 40.6 Obama +5.3%
    October 18 47.2 – 39.8 Obama +7.4%
    October 19 46.6 – 41.5 Obama +5.1%
    October 20 46.7 – 41.4 Obama +5.3%
    October 21 46.9 – 40.9 Obama +6.0%

    Let’s see what happens today.

    Frank

  15. rdelbov says:

    to me the SE virginia polling is classic Bradley effect. Yes there is a substantial AA vote and they are polling like crazy, but its also the labour/student voters who are overing polling there.

  16. jeffp says:

    Correction HC not AC DC

  17. Darrell says:

    here is what M-D has on the VA poll for regional breakdown:

    Northern Virginia 170 interviews Shenandoah/Piedmont 95 interviews Richmond Metro 80 interviews Hampton Roads 140 interviews Lynchburg/Southside 70 interviews Roanoke/Southwestern Virginia 70 interviews

    Last I checked, there are more people in Hampton Roads than in NOVA. Yet they have NOVA more interviews.

  18. Ice Cream Man says:

    Could overall Black turnout be negatively affected by a couple of factors?
    1. He comes from a mixed marriage and based on a discussion I have had from people who come from mixed marriages (in my family) and as reported by them on talks with other mixed marriage spouses, they do not feel that they are accepted by a portion of the black population.
    2. Obama has grown up as a privileged youth with advantages most people do not have leading to the thought he can not identify with me.
    3. Most of his formative years were spent outside of the continental US and he did not have the same experiences as they did growing up again leading to not been able to identify with them.

  19. Polaris says:

    #18 Meaning they oversampled NOVA. That’s the Obama-fanatic/Enthuisiasm factor I talk about.

    That would explain it, but I wanted someone from VA to confirm what looked odd to me.

    -Polaris

  20. gallup and OD coming up in less than a minute…

  21. AF Rico says:

    As Polaris and I have talked about, the one thing that scares me is that Rove told me on a flight from DC to Atlanta told me Mason Dixon is “the gold standard.”

    Hope they’ve got this one wrong.

  22. Howard Dean says:

    Polaris, In states like VA that have large numbers of deployed military, how do the pollsters compensate for this.

    Or do they?

  23. Polaris says:

    #22 True but even goldstandards sometimes get polls wrong. About 1:20 polls are simply WRONG just by stastical variations without any flaw in methedology.

    -Polaris

  24. Tina says:

    Obama +9 in FOx.

  25. Polaris says:

    #23 I don’t think they do.

    -Polaris

  26. Ash says:

    New WSOC-TV poll in NC:

    Obama 48.4 %
    McCain 46.4 %

    Hagan 44.0 %
    Dole 43.4 %

    500 LV. Didn’t see any internals.

    http://www.wsoctv.com/news/17778727/detail.html

  27. Polaris says:

    #29 Meh, had to figure. Another bloated non-weighted ‘enthusiasm’ poll.

    Could someone throw up a link soon so we can fisk it?

    -Polaris

  28. phyl says:

    NRO’s Campaign Spot Obi-Wan responds to why lib Dems get angry when polls show the race is close:

    “”Why are they angry? Because their whole strategy relies on a demoralized GOP. Remember the scare they had in September?” Obi-Wan asked. “All that coronation stuff at the Democratic convention dissolved as McCain seized and held a good lead. They know how fragile things are. They need to keep the media talking about a massive GOP defeat, because all it might take is a few stories to the contrary and all of a sudden, it is mid-September again, when the rising McCain tide was lifting all boats.”

  29. Marv says:

    Folks

    Movement toward McCain in Gallup….

    Traditional LV

    Obama 50 (-1)
    McCain 45 (+1)

    http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

    Marv

  30. Justnashole says:

    McCain back within 5 of Gallup’s Traditional Likely Voter Poll.

  31. Tina says:

    Not sure if Fox was registered voters.

  32. Polaris says:

    #27 No work, no credit.

    -Polaris

  33. Phil says:

    + 9?

    Extremely disappointing.

  34. Tina says:

    I think its likely.

  35. Polaris says:

    #30 Great news. I THOUGHT this might happen.

    Look people. Three monster days rolled on the Gallup track for Obama. The first one just rolled off and the day that replaced it was identical to the last pro-Mac day that was on before the Obama bump.

    That’s good news.

    -Polaris

  36. DWu says:

    New thread above on MD polls.

    I checked the VA internals on the MD poll.

    It looks like a pretty good poll for VA.

  37. Ice Cream Man says:

    Gallup
    Trad LV 50 – 45
    Expanded 52 – 44
    RV 51 – 42

  38. Tina says:

    Nor really, OD was wrong in 2004.

  39. Polaris says:

    #27 Not only does this NC poll not show any internals, it has a 4.5% MoE (USELESS!) and it doesn’t break down by region, race, age, etc.

    Two words: TRASH POLL

    -Polaris

  40. all 3 gallups dropped.
    thats good news.
    GW/Battleground and Ras moved a bit to obama. thats bad news.
    zogby moved more to obama- thats with probably a few outliners so, eh.

    Hotline which was being dismissed here just a month ago when it was showing constant obama leads even when mccain was ahead has it only @ 5.

    i wonder what IBD/TIPP will say today.

    hell anyone have that goofy kos poll? where are they at right now?

  41. Ponz says:

    Gallup Traditional: Obama 50 (-1)- McCain 45 (+1)

    Expanded: Obama 52, McCain 44(+2)

    Registered: Obama 51(-1), McCain 42(+2)

  42. AF Rico says:

    What’s with the Fox News/OD poll? Wow.

  43. RyanH says:

    Great news from Mason-Dixon on Virginia and Florida. If McCain goes into election day down 2 in VA with Obama under 50, he will win. Same in Florida. That is very good news. Seems to provide further support for the idea that McCain has not conceded VA and is only making a hail mary play for Pa. Considering MD is a great pollster, this is big news.

    Disappointing news with Fox. Good news with Gallup.

  44. Tina says:

    Fox – OD poll was wrong in 2004, they had Kerry winning. The head of their polling firm blamed it on two things:

    1. Weekend polling.

    2. Going to a tracking result.

  45. Aaron_in_TX says:

    From that Military Times piece:

    “The Military Times offered certain caveats for its poll, which was open only to its 80,000 subscribers. Responses were entirely voluntary and were not focused on a representative sample of the public, as scientific polls are. The troops polled were also somewhat older than average enlisted servicemembers and included more officers than is representative of the military as a whole.”

    So it wasn’t representative of the whole military and it was a voluntary poll. Their sample was probably mostly lifers that subscribe to Army Times. I hardly knew anyone that was a subcriber when I was in. 80,000 out of 3 million isn’t very many. I’d wager it overstates McCain’s support by 8 to 10 points and understates Obama’s by about the same amount. The split should be 60-40 more or less.

  46. so who thinks at least 1 tracking poll will show mccain ahead by election day?
    how about 2 tps?
    any takers?

  47. Tina says:

    Fox OD – again it was wrong in 2004.

  48. Frank says:

    Brandon,

    Do you have those numbers for me?

    Frank

  49. Ponz says:

    Rasmussen- October 21

    Trust on economy: Obama 48, McCain 46
    (Indies: Obama 42, McCain 46)

    Trust on national security: McCain 51, Obama 44 (Indies: 56-35)

  50. Tina says:

    Its evident that Florida – Indiana – MO – and OH are trending MAC.

    I think in that OD poll – 13% are undecided.

  51. MikeKS says:

    Wow, Gallup’s back to 5…nice.

  52. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “OD poll was wrong in 2004, they had Kerry winning.”

    There were maybe 3 out of 10 polls that showed Kerry winning in Ocotber 2004.

    Obama is in much better position than Bush was.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

  53. DWu says:

    [repost re the VA poll]

    A very rough and very quick guide to historic VA voting patterns for those interested:

    2004 GWB +8

    R=39
    D=35

    Repub: Bush 95-5
    Dem: Kerry 92-8
    Indy: Bush 54-44

    2006 (terrible R year)

    Webb(D) defeats Allen(R) by only 8k votes

    R=39
    D=36

    Repub: Allen 94-6
    Dem: Webb 93-7
    Indy: Webb 56-44

    Takeaways:

    Republicans show up to vote, even in bad years like 96.

    Republicans maintain loyalty to damaged candidate or party.

    For Dems to win, they have to maintain a 90%+ party loyalty and win the Indy vote by a healthy percentage — Webb flipped the Indy vote from +10 Republican to +12 Dem, a huge swing. That’s how a Dem wins VA.

    In looking at the MD internals for VA, I think it’s a pretty good poll.

    Exactly as I showed above — for Obama to win VA, he has to win Indys by at least 10.

    MD has him up 11 and thus he’s narrowly leading.

    I’m still not concerned b/c I think this is MAC’s low water mark in VA and there is a lot of room for him to grow here.

  54. Ash says:

    #33 – Huh? Sorry, I have no idea what you’re talking about. Credit for what?

  55. Howard Dean says:

    Rasmussen- October 21

    Trust on economy: Obama 48, McCain 46
    (Indies: Obama 42, McCain 46)

    Trust on national security: McCain 51, Obama 44 (Indies: 56-35)

    Comment by Ponz —

    Very interesting.

  56. Howard Dean says:

    Focus on state polls.

    Obama has outspent Mac WILDLY and he still can’t close.

  57. AF Rico says:

    DWu #37,

    By “it looks like a good poll for VA” do you mean good accurate or good for McCain?

  58. Tina says:

    AATX, not true, but in any event, FOx poll was one that was wrong.

  59. Tina says:

    Can we conclude that NOVA was oversampled and Hampton was undersampled?

    My contact says Mac +4 in VA.

  60. Eph_Rove says:

    sooooooooooooo

    FOX poll has Obama up by 9 yet MAC leads in FL and Ohio???

    mmmmmmmmkkkkkkkkaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyy

  61. Aaron_in_TX says:

    “AATX, not true, but in any event, FOx poll was one that was wrong.”

    I just showed you the link! Bush led the majority of polls back then.

  62. Tina says:

    How are indies breaking in the Ras poll.

    I sense that we are continue to get scammed by the un-msm.

    MAC doing bad among indies – National Barack Channel (NBC – the likes of Scarfarce and Chuck Todd).

  63. yarrrr says:

    “Obama is in much better position than Bush was.”

    I agree, but I think there are some dynamics at work that make McCain much closer than it appears… I don’t think he’s winning but it’s close… McCain may pull out an EC win but lose the popular vote…

  64. Polaris says:

    Actually Battleground is terrific news for McCain. A monster McCain day dropped (Mac+10) yesterday which should have moved the track up to Obama+4 or +5. The fact it only moved to Obama+2 tells me that approx a Mac+5 sample rolled on.

    -Polaris

  65. Tina says:

    I am not arguing who was wrong and who was WRIGHT, just that Fox was wrong in 2004 and the justification by the head of their polling as to why they were wrong.

    Nothing more nothing less. Where your analysis is wrong is that you fail to account for the state polls, which as you know, will decide it.

  66. Ponz says:

    Gallup’s demographic breakdown for the week ending Oct 19:

    http://www.gallup.com/tag/Key%2bIndicators.aspx

    McCain went from an 8 point deficit among pure indenpedents to a 7 point lead.

  67. Polaris says:

    #63 Indies are statistically tied in Ras (47-45 Obama IIRC) today. Mac had led the last couple of days.

    -Polaris

  68. joe six pack says:

    Look — every week is the same-

    Obama starts the week strong due to the artificial weekend polling and then by weeks end the polls tighten up to about 4 points. And all polls are using a 6 point partisan advantage for Democrats.

    I’m not going to say that I am comfortable that Mac will win this thing, but I have a gut feeling the election results will differ from the polling dramatically.

  69. Tina says:

    I sense that Obama has not been able to take advantage of the WS Crisis and the economy. If we were against Hillary or BJ from 1992 – we would be in trouble.

    However, Joe the Plumber and Mac’s statements about raising taxes in a recession appear to be catching on.

  70. AF Rico says:

    Tina,

    As someone living in NOVA, I’d love to hear from your “contact” to buck up the spirits of all the Republicans I know in our area. Everyone’s voting, but some are more than a little worried.

    So someone with good knowledge would be most welcome!

  71. Polaris says:

    #67 And the RV model still has him down by what….nine?

    What planet is gallup sampling?

    -Polaris

  72. geauxlsu says:

    Does anyone have the link to the site that breaks down spending by state for each candidate?

  73. Tina says:

    Further proof that MAC is not gettting blown out among indies. I sense that Republican support will be equal to if not greater than Obumbler’s support, and that indies will break toward MAC.

  74. Tina says:

    Thanks Ponz and polaris.

  75. joe six pack says:

    Also, the spending gap between Obama and Mac should tighten significantly these last two weeks.

  76. Tina says:

    AF Rico, what are you hearing?

  77. Tina says:

    Ok, let me play CNN –

    Rumor is that Obama will pull out of Fl to concentrate on PA and OH.

  78. Brandon says:

    Frank, sorry I was out all morning, here is the daily sample:

    Obama 50.53%(+.34)
    McCain 45.47%(-.17)

    So in essence, not as much movement as it appears. We are literally .03 points away on each persons total from having the same results as yesterday.

  79. GPO says:

    I hope the Mac campaign has something planned for after the Messiahs half hour infomercial

  80. DWu says:

    AF Rico,

    In my opinion, the M-D poll is accurate.

    It may have oversampled Dems a bit and it is likely “off” in terms of party support (both MAC and Obama will reach 90% support in their parties).

    I think it is decent news for MAC b/c of the following:

    1. There are a lot of “undecideds” and I think MAC will win them convincingly.

    2. Republicans will turn out stronger than they’re polling now (they’ll come home).

    3. Dem Prez candidates seems to poll at around 45-47% support in VA but they also “top out” in VA at around 45-46% support — see Clinton, Gore, Kerry. In other words, their actual numbers on election day match their poll numbers. I don’t think Obama can do much better than that. Mason Dixon has him topping out at around 46-47% support. I expect him to receive 47-48% support on Nov. 4th.

    4. Presidential Polls ALWAYS undercount Republican support in VA. Both in 2000 and 2004, VA was a “battleground state.” Polls showed the races pretty tight. Bush often polled in the 47-49% range. On election day, Bush ran a good 3-5 points better than their poll numbers said the would.

  81. yarrrr says:

    “Also, the spending gap between Obama and Mac should tighten significantly these last two weeks.”

    No way…

  82. eric says:

    Polaris, Can you make heads or tails of the Gallup internals? It seems to me by looking at their ideoligical breakdown, Mac is +9 with indies. It appears that they have a huge sampling of Dems, although I cannot figure out with the %’s are. If a R is running +9 with indies, they would win, all things being equal.

  83. Marv says:

    Polaris

    Gallup does not believe that young voters will turn out in ahistoric numbers this election…..just as you have said. The link is to an article posted today on Gallup.com.

    At you convenience, would you mind taking a look and telling us what you think? Thanks.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/111310/Young-Voters-Favor-Obama-How-Many-Will-Vote.aspx

    Marv

  84. Tina says:

    Thanks for the commmentary from the VA locals here. Like I said, I hear from one contact, like I hear from OH and FL.

    I can not give their names out for obvious reasons.

  85. Mark says:

    Check Drudge top left

    AP has it at only ONE.

  86. DWu says:

    Great news re MAC beating Obama among Indys.

    Folks, that’s the Ayers issue and the Joe the Plumber tax issue working for him.

  87. rdelbov says:

    Indies and undecideds will break for McCain

    I repeat my question from two weeks ago

    As an indie or undecided voter do you want to hand the keys of DC to Obama and a congress with heavy democratic majorities?(I let others decide what heavy means)

    No the middle does not want this result

  88. Todd says:

    LETS GO MAC, LETS GO!!!!!

    I LOVE JOHN MCCAIN!!

  89. joe six pack says:

    yarrr-

    Dick Morris was on FNC today and he said starting yesterday Mac and Obama are spending nearly equal amounts in the BG states. He said the proportion is 5 Obama ads for every 4 Mac ads. That is much better than 4:1.

  90. Darrell says:

    60..yes, like I said above, they offered 170 interviews to NOVA and only 140 to Hampton Roads. I am currently crunching some numbers on this right now.

  91. Tina says:

    Race is tied – Al-Ap poll – per Rush.

    In Fox 80% to 30+ believe that MAC is more qualified to handle a crisis (foreign or economic).

  92. Polaris says:

    #83 Sorry, but Gallup doesn’t give me enough info to reverse calculate today’s internal partisan weight.

    Gallup has gotten (IMHO dishonestly) cagey about hiding it. I think you can specifically request it, but why does Gallup want to hide the partisan weight?

    -Polaris

  93. Tina says:

    Get out and vote and do what needs to be done. This race is not OVER WITH.

    Phuq CNN and PMS – do your part and lets take MAC over the top.

    This includes the cheerleaders for MAC during the primary that now apper to be resound to defeat.

    IT AINT OVER WITH.

    -Tinareports

  94. AF Rico says:

    Tina,

    I’m hearing that VA Republicans are going to vote, but they see these b.s. polls and are worried that Obama will win VA.

    So if you’ve got a good VA contact, I’d love to talk to them personally! I don’t disagree that that +4 might be right (I’m hoping/praying it is), but I’d love to hear it from the horse’s mouth.

  95. Tina says:

    Ok, Fox is full of it, they now have Obama giving the second major speech/announcement in about an hour.
    Time to flip channel.

  96. Tina says:

    Rico, I can not disclose names. I think you guys have done your own analysis of MD poll (yes they are the gold standard), and you have come to many of the same conclusions that my contact said about their poll and what is happening in the state in general.

  97. Polaris says:

    #85 Hah! Told all of you so. Gallup is essentially saying that:

    1. They don’t think that the youth will turn out in ahistoric numbers.

    2. Even if they do, they’d have to SMASH (well over 21% of the total electorate) for this youth vote to have the impact on the race that the Obama campaign would wish.

    Even if you assume 21% (young being defined as 18-29) which is almost twice the normal relative turnout, it still only increases Obama’s number by a single percentage point.

    -Polaris

  98. jdekcetx says:

    I feel much better now….sorry about the earlier rant. Need to stick to my beliefs and avoid the MSM Obama machine.

  99. AF Rico says:

    Tina,

    What I should have said/asked is–who is your contact? Someone in the campaign? I didn’t mean to say you should publish it, but my point was it would be nice to see/hear that Mac’s internal polling is much better looking than Mason Dixon, Rove’s gold standard poll company.

  100. Eph_Rove says:

    Tina, Dont you work for a living?

  101. Tina says:

    I do work and defend the country, but am off today.

    I work for the guvment.

  102. Howard Dean says:

    AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

    Oct 22 01:23 PM US/Eastern
    By LIZ SIDOTI
    Associated Press Writer 3 Comments

    WASHINGTON (AP) – The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
    The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy struck a chord

  103. geauxlsu says:

    I am stunned by the AP poll. More Joe the Plumber please.

  104. dblaikie says:

    Drudge has this link in red. The landslide strat. is starting to go down the tubes. Here is the AP Poll:

    The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
    The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy struck a chord.

  105. Tina says:

    Rico you are right – MAC pushed back a bit on Florida and to a lesser extent OH – and low and behold – look what happened in the recent state polls.

    But I am not giving up.

    Remember, I was not a MAC supporter and as a matter of fact, I did not even vote in the Primary this go around.

  106. mystery says:

    more good news for Mac

    BD/TIPP Poll October 22, 2008

    Obama 45.7%
    McCain 42.0%
    Undecided 12.3%

  107. Howard Dean says:

    JTP!!

  108. Tina says:

    What’s the party id in the AP poll?

  109. Chuck Schick says:

    First post here. Had to leave Hot Air due to desire to slit my wrists.

    Great forum, Ive learned alot.

    I just took a screencap of Drudge’s “Landslide Like Reagan” headline for later use.

    Even funnier- the new 44/43 AP poll is now linked above it.

  110. Ponz says:

    Woohoo to IBD!

  111. Gary Maxwell says:

    Cut and paste from the article describing the AP poll that has Obama +1:

    Since the last AP-GfK survey in late September, McCain also has:

    _Posted big gains among likely voters earning under $50,000 a year; he now trails Obama by just 4 percentage points compared with 26 earlier.

    _Surged among rural voters; he has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.

    _Doubled his advantage among whites who haven’t finished college and now leads by 20 points. McCain and Obama are running about even among white college graduates, no change from earlier.

    _Made modest gains among whites of both genders, now leading by 22 points among white men and by 7 among white women.

    _Improved slightly among whites who are married, now with a 24-point lead.

    _Narrowed a gap among unmarried whites, though he still trails by 8 points.

    McCain has cut into Obama’s advantage on the questions of whom voters trust to handle the economy and the financial crisis. On both, the Democrat now leads by just 6 points, compared with 15 in the previous survey.

    Obama still has a larger advantage on other economic measures, with 44 percent saying they think the economy will have improved a year from now if he is elected compared with 34 percent for McCain.

    Intensity has increased among McCain’s supporters.

    A month ago, Obama had more strong supporters than McCain did. Now, the number of excited supporters is about even.

    Eight of 10 Democrats are supporting Obama, while nine in 10 Republicans are backing McCain. Independents are about evenly split.

    Some 24 percent of likely voters were deemed still persuadable, meaning they were either undecided or said they might switch candidates. Those up-for-grabs voters came about equally from the three categories: undecideds, McCain supporters and Obama backers.

  112. Polaris says:

    Hah! Got done looking at the lastest AP/GfK poll:

    Here is the partisan distribution for their likely voters:

    D43/R37/I16 (rest other or DNR)

    Mac is within ONE (MoE) in a D+6 Poll!

    Looking good….

    -Polaris

  113. MikeKS says:

    WOW — TIPP BACK TO 3.7!!! That’s what you call MOVEMENT!!!!!!!

  114. DWu says:

    Gary,

    MAC making gains among lower income voters.

    That’s Joe the Plumber.

    That’s Obama’s elitism.

    That’s the NRA ads on Obama’s gun control record(thank God).

    MAC needs to keep it up along those lines.

  115. sam says:

    Speaking of polls, did anyone happen to notice the odd thing about the NBC/WSJ poll from yesterday?

    If I read the Hart/Newhouse questionnaire right (and I have gone through it many times), they did not even ask for party ID in their demographic questions.

  116. Justnashole says:

    Internals of IBD/TIPP: http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309546869309178

    20 point advantage for McCain in suburbs up from even! I’ll dip my balls in that.

  117. joe six pack says:

    I feel better today!

  118. Frank says:

    Okay friends,

    It’s that time again.

    Rasmussen results:

    October 11 51.90 – 44.56% Obama +7.34%
    October 12 51.09 – 45.02% Obama +6.07%
    October 13 50.43 – 44.69% Obama +5.74%
    October 14 50.23 – 44.60% Obama +5.63%
    October 15 49.98 – 44.60% Obama +5.38%
    October 16 49.85 – 46.28% Obama +3.57%
    October 17 50.34 – 45.88% Obama +4.46%
    October 18 50.25 – 45.46% Obama +4.79%
    October 19 50.73 – 44.63% Obama +6.10%
    October 20 49.55 – 45.80% Obama +3.75%
    October 21 50.19 – 45.64% Obama +4.55%
    October 22 50.53 – 45.47% Obama +5.06%

    Pretty good result.

    The only problem is that a bad Obama and good MacCain day is rolling off tomorrow.

    Frank

  119. joe six pack says:

    If McCain has a 20 pt advantage in the burbs, he should be winning this thing by ten points.

  120. Howard Dean says:

    Close strong!

    JTP and Palin!

  121. Polaris says:

    #110 Good news from TIPP but I expected it. TIPP had two HUGE Obama days on the track and the first one rolled off today (the second one will roll off tomorrow). However, the TIPP poll is back to about where it was (O+3.5) before the big Obama days rolled on. That means that the Mac days after were stronger than the Mac days before the two big Obama days.

    That augures well for tomorrow’s TIPP as well.

    -Polaris

  122. DWu says:

    Joe the Plumber has to be in every MAC ad between now and election day.

    Such a simple and powerful message.

  123. Tina says:

    I am glad that Polaris, Gary Maxwell, and others are here to break this stuff down.

  124. Sy says:

    What is the EXACT number for Ras today?

  125. Howard Dean says:

    Drudge needs to headline that poll in RED.

  126. GPO says:

    we need the mkt to stabilize!!!!

    Go MAC!!!!!!

  127. eric says:

    Polaris, Other than the D+6, does the AP poll pass the smell test?

  128. Big Joe says:

    I dont normally post links to videos but check out this 30 second clip.

    http://nz.youtube.com/watch?v=QnE-YJ—GI

    Just needed a laugh today and got it. Please don’t come after me, I just thought this was funny.

  129. Sy says:

    Hedgehog Tracking Poll(IBD/BG/Ras)

    10/20 +4.35 O
    10/21 +3.85 O
    10/22 +3.59 O

    First Data Point
    +3.93 Obama

  130. Tina says:

    BTW – there is a new MAC ad today with Joe the Plumber.

  131. Tina says:

    So, who really won the last debate?

  132. Tina says:

    Or, did the Powell endorsement cause a negative backlash for Obama?

  133. Frank says:

    # 112

    43 – 37 D – R

    Frank

  134. Polaris says:

    Everyone,

    The reason the Market isn’t rebounding and stabilizing the way it should can be summed up in two words:

    Hedge Funds

    Those awful things have tied up a HUGE amount of speculative cash and are generating a tremendous sell pressure even without any fundamental reason for it that’s keeping the market down.

    Yes we are in a resession, but the market is artificially low even considering that, and it may stay that way until the bad Hedge Funds die from margin calls.

    -Polaris

  135. GPO says:

    #141 holy crap even with a +6 dem id

  136. Tina says:

    Thanks for the information from the HH trakcing and the party id for the Al-AP poll.

  137. Brandon says:

    I guess it’s time for my daily update on early voting in NC and GA.

    NC
    Total Votes Cast: 629,296(+155,020)
    Party ID: D 56.4%(+.3)/R 27.1%(-.3)/ I 16.50%(nc)
    Black Vote: 29.0%(+.3)

    GA
    Total Votes Cast: 825,983(+68,317)
    Black Vote: 35.6%(-.1)

  138. Polaris says:

    #144 see post 116. I give the complete partisan breakdown.

    -Polaris

  139. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Here is IBD/TIPP numbers.

    October 13 44.8 – 42.7 Obama +2.1%
    October 14 44.8 – 41.9 Obama +2.9%
    October 15 45.2 – 41.9 Obama +3.3%
    October 16 45.2 – 41.6 Obama +3.6%
    October 17 45.9 – 40.6 Obama +5.3%
    October 18 47.2 – 39.8 Obama +7.4%
    October 19 46.6 – 41.5 Obama +5.1%
    October 20 46.7 – 41.4 Obama +5.3%
    October 21 46.9 – 40.9 Obama +6.0%

    Notice the huge Obama night on October 16 polling.

    +3.6 changes to +5.3

    For this to happen, the sample must have been Obama 48.7 – 36.6% … a huge night. Obama +12.1%

    Notice the huge Obama night on October 17 polling.

    +5.3 changes to +7.4

    For this to happen, the sample must have been Obama 52.4 – 36.6% … a bigger night. Obama +15.8%

    That first night is rolling off tomorrow, so it should change significantly tomorrow.

    The second night rolls off Thursday, so the numbers should change significantly again on Thursday.

    So, Thursday is the day to look at.

    My prediction:

    Wednesday: 45.3 minimum (Obama 45% for the night)
    42.4 (MacCain 44% for the day)

    Then even closer the next day.

    If 45.3 – 42.4 is accurate, then the numbers become 43.8% for Obama with a new Obama 45%

    cool … right.

    How about this: assuming MacCain gets 44% for that night, the new number for MacCain becomes … 43.9%

    Let’s see how good my predictions and arithmetic is.

    Wow. Two 45 – 44 Obama nights become a MacCain lead of 0.1%.

    That would be incredible.

    Frank

    Well, I was close. I predicted 45.3 – 42.4% and it actually was 45.7 – 42.0.

    That means that the day coming on must have been closer to 46 – 44 or 46 – 43.

    Still not bad. Let’s see it tomorrow.

    Frank

  140. Polaris says:

    #146 The Early GA voting turnout seems to be slowing down. It’s still early in the NC turnout.

    -Polaris

  141. DWu says:

    Tina,

    My take:

    MAC won the last debate b/c of taxes and JTP.

    Powell did give Obama a small bump in the polls, otherwise the polls would be even tighter today.

    MAC has to continue to hammer JTP. It’ll make voters feel like he “get’s it” and “understands folks like me.”

  142. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Here is IBD/TIPP numbers.

    October 13 44.8 – 42.7 Obama +2.1%
    October 14 44.8 – 41.9 Obama +2.9%
    October 15 45.2 – 41.9 Obama +3.3%
    October 16 45.2 – 41.6 Obama +3.6%
    October 17 45.9 – 40.6 Obama +5.3%
    October 18 47.2 – 39.8 Obama +7.4%
    October 19 46.6 – 41.5 Obama +5.1%
    October 20 46.7 – 41.4 Obama +5.3%
    October 21 46.9 – 40.9 Obama +6.0%
    October 22 45.7 – 42.0 Obama +3.7%

    Nice results. Tomorrow will be better !!!!!

    Frank

  143. Frank says:

    # 129,

    See # 122.

    Frank

  144. DWu says:

    Frank,

    Again…thanks.

  145. Tina says:

    DWU, I agree about the 3rd debate.

    As far as the Powell endorsement of Obama, I really do not think it matters or helps especially when Powell repeated the talking points of the Obumbler.

  146. Polaris says:

    Tina,

    Now that I’ve seen the numbers, I think Powell may have slowed down the general trend towards Mac, but it wasn’t much and very, very temporary.

    Basically the electorate looked, considered, and yawned about Powell.

    -Polaris

  147. Tina says:

    The powell endorsement could be in fact a net negative for OBama, since Powell was the main architect for the Iraq War.

  148. Brutus says:

    Seems as if McCain has finally started to get through to the independents.

  149. Robbie says:

    The AP poll is interesting to me because the AP was the only poll to consistently show Kerry up in the month of October in 2004. If one outfit could show a big Obama result, it would be AP.

    While it’s good that there has been some movement to McCain today, be careful. In poll after poll, the movement in the polls have all been on the part of Obama. McCain’s number has been consistently around the 43 or 44 mark. Polaris has pointed out that the weighting could be off, but it’s still something to consider.

  150. Chuck Schick says:

    One problem with the AP poll… shouldnt McCains post debate bump roll off and more Powell endorsement roll in? It was only polled thru Monday.

  151. Tina says:

    Polaris, I agree, slight initial impact, but it may be a net negative because it may have further energized the R base.

    Are you seeing what I am seeing? Mac earning a higher R support than Obama D support in some polls?

  152. Tina says:

    Mark Foley also endorsed Obama too.

    LOL

  153. DWu says:

    Chuck,

    MAC’s post debate bump was not seen in the initial numbers.

    We’re still feeling it now — it was the resonance of Joe TP and the tax/socialism issue.

    MAC is still riding that momentum.

  154. Tina says:

    FOx just reported on the AP poll.

  155. Howard Dean says:

    Drudge is also linking the IBD poll.

  156. Tina says:

    Ok, Fox claims that AP is questioning there new polling firm (that’s AP hired a new company?).

  157. Sy says:

    I don’t give too much credence to the AP poll, just like CBS/NY Times, ABC, Pew, Zogby etc.

  158. Howard Dean says:

    The AP poll included weekend days too?

  159. Howard Dean says:

    Ok, Fox claims that AP is questioning there new polling firm (that’s AP hired a new company?).

    Comment by Tina

    They don’t like the results.

    Funny but not surprising.

  160. Howard Dean says:

    New Mexico Democrat Senator Supports Revival Of Fairness Doctrine…

    Drudge is red-lining this.

  161. AlN says:

    Hedgehog Tracking Poll(IBD/BG/Ras)
    10/20 +4.35 O
    10/21 +3.85 O
    10/22 +3.59 O
    First Data Point
    +3.93 Obama

    Sy, you DON’T have to create a 3-day track of data that is ALREADY 3-day tracking poll averages! Forget the “First Data Point” and just stick with the daily numbers.

  162. Tina says:

    Yeah, HD. and about 1/2 hour before, they had RAs, Kelly -Anne Conway (sp?), and some other person on, but they never mentioned this poll.

  163. knova_red says:

    hey Chuck, you get your law degree at Harvard? I’m going to St. Copius in Nebraska.

  164. Tim says:

    Dave:
    When are we gonna get a thread for predictions, for Congress and President?

  165. Tina says:

    Gasoline update:

    We were at 3.51 last Sunday. It is now down to 3.11.

    Yes 40 cent price plunge in less than a week.

  166. Sy says:

    AIN,

    I don’t know. It is my version of a TRACKING poll. Any opinions on this? Should I treat it as a tracking poll of tracking polls?

  167. Chuck Schick says:

    @172

    “Where?”

    Im just clerking for Smails for the summer.

  168. MikeKS says:

    Gas is 2.39 here.

  169. Ash says:

    Just saw a report of some kind of shooting at Western Kentucky University. Students being warned to take shelter.

    No other details yet…

  170. Tina says:

    Mike, where are you again, Kansas or MO? I thought you may have moved?

  171. MikeKS says:

    KS, but 10 mins from MO.

  172. Gary Maxwell says:

    Tina

    There are a few stations in the Ft Worth area around $2.22. The bulk have not gotten there yet but they will.

    Its one of the reasons that I believe the recession will be shallow and short, this is a huge cash infusion that impacts nearly every consumer and most businesses that ship anything or fly personnel around.

  173. RobD says:

    New Thread

  174. Darrell says:

    I finished my work crunching the regional breakdown of the M-D VA poll. It is as I suspected. They have oversampled NOVA. NOVA should have gotten only about 23% of the share of 625 interviews, and yet NOVA was awarded 27% of the interviews. Hampton Roads was about right at 22%. Richmond-Metro was 12% which is right on the mark. This tells me that the Shenendoah/piedmont and Lynchburg/southside were under polled. This means that You can add a few points to McCain to this poll and take away a few from Obama.

  175. Chuck Schick says:

    @162

    Hope you’re right DWu. Seems like where seeing some final motion overall.

    Im sure Polaris knows about this, but Ive read on both campaignspot and a few other places that Obama’s internal pollsters are pretty terrified over an unforeseeable surge because of Palin. I think JTP dovetails right into that resonance, and just in time.

    And to think Obama just walked up to him to talk. What incredible luck.

  176. 3.13 @ rancho cucamonga california

    it was 4.50 @ same gas station first week of july.

  177. Tina says:

    Ok, I thought so, but then I thought you may have moved.

    That is really cheap. We have not had those prices since before the Democrats took control.

  178. Eph_Rove says:

    $2.79 in Tempe / PHX

  179. knova_red says:

    176-lacey says “beat it Chuck”

  180. phyl says:

    Polls showing rural voters surging for McCain? So that’s why they’re in IA this weekend!

  181. Tina says:

    I still have the CNN rumor of an imminent pull-out of Camp obumbler from Florida.

  182. Howard Dean says:

    2.99 in WA

  183. Sean says:

    $2.62 in Colorado Springs, CO

  184. Sanity says:

    Population of:
    Hampton Roads: $1.6M
    Northern Virginia: $2.5M

    Boy, don’t facts suck?

    http://hamptonroads.com/2008/01/chesapeake-suffolk-track-pass-neighbors-terms-population