Open Hump Day Thread

And you know what mean…get your dirty minds out of the gutter….

Since I can’t find any state polls this morning and don;t have a lot of time, here is John McCain’s new ad instead.

I don’t know what to fully expect today as I have not been tipped off to any new polls coming later today. I am sure we will get another set of polls from Rasmussen as we usually do. Survey USA promised us polls from 14 states this week and they have only released polls for three so far, so there are still some polls we are owed. And Mason-Dixon should have another stale poll out this morning.

I might be back for lunch….

Posted by Dave at 7:58 am
Filed under: 2008 President | Comments (321)

321 Responses to “Open Hump Day Thread”

  1. jones says:

    Tim, who did you vote for in ’92?

  2. Friend says:

    NBC: VA plus 3

  3. middle of the roader says:

    ABC NEWS/Washington Post:


    Obama McCain
    9/22/08 52 43

    Yet Battleground has McCain +2.

    The spread? It goes to 11! Talk about confusin’……….

  4. rdelbov says:

    Biden is gaffing again or perhaps he’s just trying to scare us??–12.html

    I have written several times on doomsday scenerios for election day. I tell you folks there are already in place. The democrats are already planning another coup try

  5. Howard Dean says:



    MAC +3

    If MD has him +3 he must be up higher than that.

    Sorry, still skeptical about anything with NBC prints on it.

  6. dblaikie says:

    Middle of the roader, it is not confusing when you figure that the party id. breakdown of the ABC poll was 54% dems and 38% rep. and 7% ind. That is a sad joke!! That a major news organization would publish such garbage makes this a sad day. Today not only NBC but I believe that a large percentage of the Main Stream News Media are engaged in propoganda to elect their candidate.

  7. rdelbov says:

    ABC was behind Trash

    Trash polls are trash whether state or national

    State trash polls will lag trash national polls by the way.

    Good state polls will lag good national polls

    lets get that subject out of the way

  8. Howard Dean says:

    #16 Are you kidding?

    +16 D’s? Throw in RV and a weekend sample and they KNOW their guy is losing.

    Battleground is bi-partisan.

    MAC +2.

    The msm is VERY dangerous.

    5th Column.

  9. Jake Towson says:

    Why would Obama get the bounce from this market crisis when he made so much money from Fannie and Freddie and has their disgraced CEOs on his staff advising him on economic matters?

    McCain will have a field day with that in the 3rd debate (the economic one)

  10. Howard Dean says:

    I think RAS could be MAC +1 today.

  11. Sharon says:

    #9….because most people don’t know that. McCain and his campaign need to start pounding all this information out to the american public. For sure the MSM is not going to talk about it.

  12. Sharon says:

    I am absolutely fascinated with the likes of Polaris, Tina and others that are so savy when it comes to polls and actually know what they mean. I would love to learn how to break them down according to LV’s, RV’s and all the other things that apply and are discussed on this site. Could someone recommend an easy to follow book that I could learn from?

  13. dblaikie says:

    No one (at least on morning joe) is talking about the ipos poll (a pro dem. organization) who with registered voters have it 44 Obama and 43 McCain.

    Folks this is just the beginning. I predict that the next NBC poll will also show an Obama surge and guess what, they won’t reveal their internals.

  14. Howard Dean says:

    Obama is VERY vulnerable on the economy.

    He has ZERO experience with it.

    MAC needs to run more ads pointing that out and he needs to drive it home during the debates.

  15. bio mom says:

    So was that poll +16 or +10 (from Polaris on the previous thread). Either is bad but +16 is truly disgraceful.

  16. Howard Dean says:

    dblakie, Pay back is Nov 4th.

    Can’t wait.

  17. Howard Dean says:

    Even if it’s +10 it’s still laughable.

  18. Tina says:

    I put up a post finally at the RP site for my comments on the “state of the election.” 2 comments already got deleted while I slept.

    Sharon, I do not know much about polls, but I keep reading the stuff here and trying to learn on it.

    I am more of an “attack” ad person.

  19. james milner says:

    Do they truly believe that Republicans are an endangered species?

  20. Brin says:

    So, RCP included the ABC poll in their avg. which now totally validates its existence. I sent an email to RCP explaining why it shouldn’t be included and that it is so bad that it makes the RCP avg. completely useless at this point.

  21. sam says:

    I’m still waiting for the Newsweek poll, showing Obama up by 20. They are falling on the job.

  22. Mose says:

    I just took a look at the ABC poll’s internals. The registered voter breakdown is D/R/I – 38/28/29. The breakdown moves to 54/38/7 when independents were asked to state if they “leaned” to one party or the other.

    The thing that caught my attention was that the breakdown in the previous poll was 50/41/7 including leaners. McCain led in that poll 49/47. So, between the two polls, the composition of the sample became 7 points more Democrat, but McCain did 11 points worse (from +2 to -9). So even controlling for the partisan composition of the sample, McCain’s relative performance is down 4 points.

    Obviously, I don’t trust this poll, but that does bother me a bit.

  23. Brin says:

    Nov. 3rd poll Prediction
    Obama 75%
    MAC 25%

    Party ID Dems 100% Rep 0%

  24. dblaikie says:

    Both Polaris and I are correct. It is plus 10 when registered voters are first asked and I believe in that unaided question the independants are 29%. They then push the 29 to which side they lean — dem. or rep. When that is factored in the number is 16.

  25. Tim says:

    jones, I voted for Bill Clinton. I have never voted Republican in a Presidential Election.

  26. bio mom says:

    Thank you!! Which does the 9% lead represent?

  27. Brin says:

    The MSM is setting this up for O to be a martyr after he “suprisingly” loses in Nov.

  28. Howard Dean says:

    1. over sample Dems check

    2. RV’s check

    3. Sat/Sun samples check

    4. Obama leads check

    5. breaking news poll check


  29. dblaikie says:

    Big Mom the 9% represents Obama leading in a fantasy country where the partisan breakdown is 60% liberal/Mod. liberal and 40% conservative/Mod. conservative.

  30. Gary Maxwell says:


  31. Tina says:

    KOS Tracker – O +4.


  32. Tina, were the comments deleted or just waiting moderation over at RP? I had to go in and approve some at about 11:00. I had to smack down those liberals who posted in your thread.

  33. Darrell says:

    It is so easy for them to manipulate their results. All they have to do is over-sample the big cities, and guess what? party spread is D +10. Just look at the 2004 exit polls to see how that worked.

  34. Tim says:

    It’s not a 9-point lead. I personally don’t think that it has EVER been over a 3-point difference, either way.

  35. Tina says:

    Deleted, it said due to inappropriateness. I did not have time to see what exactly happened.

  36. Howard Dean says:

    The media is serving up a heaping dose of false hope.

    There will be a lot of jaws on the floor in newsrooms across the country on Nov 4th.

  37. Tina says:

    Now, I’ll have to listen to ABC Radio report this poll over and over and over again.

  38. eric says:

    Look folks, if %16 more dem’s show up to vote on election day, the Obumbler wins every state Kerry won, and all of the battleground states too. This is simply MSM fantasy. As many have noted before, partisan voting patterns do not shift that dramatically, and the pollster for ABC/WAPO knows this, they just don’t care. When people actually get to vote, the MSM will be stunned with the results, and the hand wringing will begin.

  39. Darrell says:

    They have to be a little careful…if they say via junk polls that its an Obama landslide, then maybe a lot of Obama supporters will not bother to go to the polls either.

  40. Howard Dean says:

    September 24th, 2008

    Bill O’Reilly’s web site hacked, attackers release personal details of users

    Posted by Dancho Danchev @ 5:56 am

    Obama supporters hacked Palin now BOR.

    Who’s next? Digital Brown Shirts.

  41. Brin says:

    #39….I agree with you to a point.

  42. Howard Dean says:


    O +2

    Will get NH and CO polls today

  43. messy says:

    there’s an election in Canada, too y’know!

    The latest poll of polls from up north;

    neo-cons 36-38%
    liberals 24-27%
    NDP 17-21%
    Bloc 8%*
    Green 6-12&*

    *In quebec only.
    Bloc 33-35%
    neo-cons 24-27%
    liberals 16-19%
    NDP 16-19%
    Green 6-9%

  44. Hugh says:

    The longer congress drags out their negotiations the more it will hurt McCain. At some point it could boomerang, but dems are smart to stall at least through this week. Once things settle down Mccain will recoup what he lost.

  45. CambridgeRep says:

    The ABC poll is an absolute disgrace. A news organization should not put out a poll with such ridiculous internals, and then trumpet the results. This kind of agenda journalism is incredibly irresponsible.

    The danger is MUCH greater that bogus polls will dampen Republican enthusiasm, and therefore turnout than make overconfident Dems stay home.

    I’m really concerned for the future of democracy in this country. There are VERY few places left where you can get unbiased information. The media are in the talk full on for Obama, and if he loses, they are going to push the meme that the election was stolen, that Obama lost because the unenlightened masses are vile racists, or both.

  46. Hugh says:

    BG +2 McCain this morning

  47. CambridgeRep says:


    I also find it dangerous that Dems control Congress at the time of a presidential election in which the incumbent is a Republican. The CV is that bad economic times always hurt the incumbent party, especially when that party is the GOP.

    The danger for the Dems is that, while some cataclysmic event would probably result in an Obama victory, the mess would take so long to clean up that the Dem majorities will be gone in 2011.

  48. bio mom says:

    An even more serious question is what happens if he wins?? Who is it that they helped get elected?? Will they still give him a pass on everything he does?? That is a huge danger to the country. And with total control by Dems, he will just sign whatever they want.

    You cannot redistribute wealth if you destroy the ability to create any of it.

  49. bio mom says:

    The stalling on the bailout plan is not just from the Dems but the Republicans are doing their share of it as well.

  50. Brin says:


    I totally agree, I feel we have moved into an era with the media where they are quasi-government controlled excwept they are doing it at thier choosing instead of forcibly.

    What if Obama is elected and is involeved in something that the American people should know about. Can we count on them to bring it forward? At this point I have no confidence in that.

  51. Hugh says:

    bio mom…agreed, but it is largely the dems and as much as I cannot stand it, I understand why they are doing it.

  52. Elliot says:


  53. Darrell says:

    Something else I have been thinking about. I think it a false assumption that Obama will get 99% or higher of the black vote. I give blacks more credit than that. In the end, I will predict that Obama will get only slightly higher percentage than Kerry got in 2004. I think that there could be a Bradley effect that is pretty strong among blacks. It’s one thing for a whites answering the poll and fearing that they will be called a racist for not supporting Obama, but if you are black, and you happen to be for low taxes or may be pro-military, or perhaps you are opposed to infanticide or any other number of reasons to vote McCain, you would feel really persecuted to be known for supporting McCain. I think that a surprising number of black women might vote for Palin. I wonder if any of the election analysts have expored this topic much. I have not seen much of anything on this.

  54. Brin says:


    I don’t know. I hope you are right but I expect 90-95% following.

  55. Mose says:

    #53 – I suspect that the issues are going to take a back seat to the symbolic significance of a black president for African-Americans. Until proven otherwise, I think you need to pencil Obama in for about 95% of the black vote.

  56. CambridgeRep says:


    You might be right. I have never seen any analysis of who those ~10% of blacks are who apparently vote Republican. My guess would be that they are suburban, well-educated, and upper-middle to upper class.

    Given how much I’m assuming those individuals have heard over the years that they are “race traitors” because they vote for the Party of Racism, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re feeling extra pressures to shut up this year. And for black survey respondents, they can’t just say “undecided” like whites who will secretly vote McCain might.

    I do think that Obama will win virtually all black Democrats AND black independents. Still, I think the number of black Republicans is so small–we’re talking probably around 5% of a population that makes up 10-15% of the population of most swing states, I doubt this will make a difference in outcomes.

  57. CambridgeRep says:

    Ugh…An Obama presidency would amount to 4-8 years of his appearing on “The View,” with the toughest question being, “Why are you SO sexy?!”

  58. dblaikie says:

    Battleground has no change today. McCain up 2!!

  59. Darrell says:

    56…agreed, not sure about the effecting outcome, but I am thinking about a black family lets say in Detroit. The mom works hard trying to raise kids and work a part-time job, they regularly vote DEM, but deep down, she has always been yearning for a woman reaching the top. She doesn’t like the way Obama treated Hillary, but she feels she must tow the line. So they go vote on Nov 4, her husband plunks down the marker next to Obama’s name, but she looks over her shoulder, then down at Palin’s name next to McCain’s, and her marker finds its way there…and on the way out the door the plethora of exit pollsters approach her and with her husband next to her, she says ‘Obama’

  60. bio mom says:

    Don’t read anything into this question, but is Obama really African-American? His mother is the one who was American and she is white. His father was not an American and he was the black parent. Shouldn’t that make Obama a white American with some mixed ancestry?

    So how bad did McCain lose last night in ras tanda and others? +2 O was not predicted here.

  61. brion says:

    Just like oprah, race before gender

  62. RobD says:

    Hello from northern Nevada. I guess it has been 4 years since I last posted here but I have been lurking for a couple of months now and thought I would give a report from the battle ground state of Nevada. Things are looking pretty tight here. In the past Washoe county(Reno) has been a predominately R county but the Dems are now almost even in registration so with Clark county(LV) heavily Dem it may come down to how the indys break. Though I’m not seeing a lot of Obama support even from the few libs I know. I’ve only seen a few Obama bumper stickers but even less McCain stickers. I have seen no yard signs for either. Obama has an add on the local talk station(carries Rush, Hanity, etc) by some bogus gun group that claims McCain and Obama have exactly the same stance on gun owners ship. What a hoot. It is read by some ex Washington Redskin and proceeds to bash McCain on the economy. It was running on every commercial break yesterday, talk about annoying and what a waste of money.

  63. dblaikie says:

    Big Mom, There is no doubt that McCain had a negitive night with Rasmussen. However over at Battleground nothing changed. You need to remember with Rasmussen that he weights his polls to +5.5 points to the dems. That is just too high. If you refigure his numbers to a proper +3 or so then you have a result very close to Battleground.

  64. Hunter says:

    What’s with all the hand-wringing and negative talk this morning?…

    So there were a couple bad polls, one of which is bull crap because of the internals?…

    Because Drudge has a comment on his site?…

    And all this means what, exactly?…

    Good grief…

    There are 40+ days left in the election…

    3 debates…

    And numerous opportunities for McCain to close this…

    All the issues you folks lay out as reasons for worry, MSM, etc. and McCain is only down 3-4 points…IS A GOOD THING…

    Obama can’t and won’t close the deal…

    McCain had a bad week…That’s a FACT…

    But there is plenty of time to get back on message and after Friday’s debate, this will be a different story…

    Man, to read some of these comments you’d think that the election was tomorrow and we were doomed for sure…

    I remember Drudge had his siren on in 2004 regarding the exit polls which showed Kerry up by double digits…

    LANDSLIDE they were saying…

    The only problem was that the polling firms were oversampling women by a WIDE margin…

    Just relax…It’ll be fine…Have more faith in Americans to get their news from other sources than MSM…

  65. Elliot says:


    I agree with everything you’ve said except the last paragraph. The last 15-20% (undecideds) we’re fighting for don’t get their news from other sources. Those are the people that read the headlines on the newsstands or catch ABC Nightly News once in a while. That’s what I’m worried about.

  66. Elliot says:

    Anybody see this yet? McCain released a statement ripping the NY Times for thier story about Rick Davis at 2AM this morning.

  67. IndyThinker says:

    All of these recent gaffes by Biden seem to lend credence to this notion that he is going to yanked from the ticket and replaced. Maybe by Hillary. I don’t how likely that is to happen since I really don’t think Obama likes or trusts Hillary. Would the electorate react negatively to such a move? Maybe, maybe not. It would be a huge indicator of how Obama flip flops on big decisions, and always holds his finger to the political winds. It’s a scary possibility because if it were to happen, it could be helpful to Obama’s chances of winning.

  68. JohnB says:

    #12 “Could someone recommend an easy to follow book that I could learn from?”


    Try this link to start

    It will give you a good background on surveys. The difference between LV and RV is that they are different SAMPLES from two different populations.

  69. Hunter says:



    And where did the undecideds break throughout the primary season?…

    Away from Obama by a LARGE margin…

    60-70% in some cases?…

    Guess what?…

    In the last week before a primary, voters are taking all the BS off, and really thinking about this guy…

    And when they get to the booth, they don’t trust his weak-ass resume and positions to lead this country…

    It happened in the Dem Primaries and it will happen again…

  70. MDefl says:

    IMHO – The polling organizations will stop their shenanighans, even the msm polls, as we near 11/4 because they will not want the ridicule of being off by 10 or 15%. Then, I think Tim is correct, we will see most polls reporting Mac or BO up by no more than 3%. That is the reality of what the race is at this point. Everything else is just noise.

  71. Hunter says:

    Obama is also in Drudge saying he’s very proud of his Biden pick…

    He ain’t dumping him…

  72. Darrell says:

    61…not all black women feel this way. Not all just blindly follow Oprah.

  73. MDefl says:

    Just to clear up what I said in 70 – imo – Obama can win but by no more than 3% while Mac has an upside that is much higher. If he wins the Indy’s and the con Dems, then he could win the pop vote by 5 to 7%. The more likely scenario is a 1 to 3% victory but a larger victory is not inconceivable.

  74. MDefl says:

    #71 – Thank God!!

  75. Big Joe says:

    71 Hunter .. of course BO is going to say that

  76. greg says:

    Ron Paul nails the cause of the securities crisis. I’d like to believe his solutions are the best, but I’m not sure given how badly the gov’t has already screwed this up. Maybe that was their plan all along: screw up the market big time so that only they could fix it – then come in and take it over.

  77. John B says:

    Any increase in the black vote will be offset by Democrats who will not vote for a black candidate.

    I am not sure which will be greater, the number of new Black voters who will come out for Barack Obama or the number of Democrats who just will not vote for a Black president. But the numbers will largely offset each other.

    The question is how many other constituencies has Barack Obama upset? Democrat gun owners, hunters, Hillary supporters, coal miners, Catholics and small business owners to start.

  78. bio mom says:

    Hotline +6

  79. Brin says:

    Yes, but the reality is that Mac at worst is tied, most likely he is up +2.
    Saying the reality is that he is down 3-4 pts is not accurate.

  80. Sy says:

    So here is the tracking polls today so far:

    Rasmussen: -2
    Battleground: +2
    KOS: -4
    Hotline: -6

    average: -2.5

  81. Brin says:

    Again, internals are needed. How can everyone not see this, if there is an inaccurate polling that is not reflective of historically how things have appeared on election day then the poll cannot be trusted. Sure changes to internals can be made but they should be minor shifts and not major shifts.

  82. Sy says:

    BTW, the two most accurate LV tracking polls has McCain TIED.

  83. Howard Dean says:

    RAS will release NH at 12 pm EST.

    His last poll was O +1.

    RAS releases CO at 5pm EST

    Last poll was MAC +2.

  84. Howard Dean says:

    Does anyone know what party ID BG is using?

  85. eric says:

    Mac has never led in the hotline poll, not even when he was +10 in a gallup LV poll.

  86. Sy says:

    BG’s position is that party identification does not shift much. I believe they are using +3 D or something along that line.

  87. Hunter says:

    Big Joe…


    And if he dumps Biden it goes up as an ad in 10 seconds questioning his judgment…

    Obama ain’t that dumb…

  88. John B says:

    Ask yourself how likely are the following states likely to go for Barack Obama:

    VA, CO, IA, NH, NM, NV, MI, PA, MN, WI, FL, OH, OR, and WA.

    The electoral map favors John McCain. It is simply more likely that McCain will win one or more of MI, PA, MN, or WI than Barack Obama will win FL or OH.

  89. Big Joe says:


    BO will not dump Biden. At least it won’t play out that way publically if in fact there is a change.

    If anything, Biden has a “health problem” and has to step down. this way everyone saves face .. supposedly 🙂

  90. KeyBored says:

    Wifey and I are off to see Obama in Dunedin (FL). If I can only touch his garment I may be healed. Wish me luck.


  91. tanda says:

    Ras 3 day actual:
    46.56-49.40, O + 2.84

    Ras 1 day estimate:
    42.74-52.57 O + 9.83

  92. bio mom says:

    Since Ipsos/McClatchy has O +1 and it was taken during the same period as the bogus ABC poll, why do we hear only about the ABC poll? (I know why).

  93. John B says:

    The only way Joe Biden is going to have a “health problem” is if Barack Obama shoots him.

    This is Joe Biden’s last and best chance to become president. He will not leave willingly.

    He knows Barack Obama cannot dump him without his permission. If Barack Obama even asked him, Joe would say “No”.

  94. Todd says:

    So, last nights Ras had O up almost 10? or Ras first day on the poll?


  95. tanda says:


    Last night.

  96. Hunter says:

    I agree Joe…

    It was interesting though that his medical records, when released, did reference an increased risk of a return of the aneurysm…

  97. Sy says:

    Ras’s result last night must be an outlier. No way is McCain down by 10 pts.

  98. Big Joe says:

    John, I think they could work out a deal to have Biden become Sec. of State in exchange.

  99. David says:

    I just visted MSNBC’s website and found this this poll

    Which health care plan would you most like to see implemented?

    1) Obama’s plan that requires employers to pay for health insurance or a tax to fund public care and also a new national system paid for by the government

    2) McCain’s plan to offer tax credits so we can buy our own private insurance, funded by taxing workers on benefits employers now pay for health insurance

    3) I don’t like either option

    4) Nothing needs to change from how it is now

    They can’t even do an online poll without putting bias into their questions/choices.

    In obama’s choice they say the government pays for the healthcare…they fail to mention that the taxpayers pay by for it by paying additional taxes and in mcCain’s plan they mention that people are TAXED.

    Do they think we believe that the government has it’s own money supply some where?

  100. Hugh says:

    I dont think the daily polling estimates are correct. Any fluctuation in the past building to the three day average could dramatically change the three individual day results. However, all the same you could have an outlier day. Though not as likely with using a fixed party id.

  101. David says:

    #93, i understand, even NBC is talking about the ABC poll.. Can you imagine NBC talking about a FoxNews poll?

  102. Hunter says:

    I know this is a long read, but it does speak to the party ID’s and the polls today…

    From NRO…

    Thinking of Recent Polls and Partisan Breakdowns

    Judging by the direction, not necessarily the exact numbers of recent polls, I’d say the McCain-Palin ticket is having a rough week (after last week’s dissipation of the post-convention bump) compared to Obama-Guy Who Thinks Franklin Roosevelt Went On The Television In 1929.

    As I’ve said, I’m not one of those guys who demands perfect proportion in a pollster’s voting samples. It was nearly-even in 2004, the Democrats returned to their traditional advantage in 2006, and I think the voter pool on election day will be somewhere between those two. (A key difference between 2006 and this year is Sarah Palin energizing the conservative base, as opposed to the last cycle when the base got to watch the GOP House leadership argue with each other about who knew what about Mark Foley and when.)

    When I noted ARG’s 14-point margin in favor of the Democrats in a recent Pennsylvania poll, a couple readers noted that current voter registration in that state is skewed heavily to Democrats. But I suspect that partially reflects the significant number of folks who registered as Democrats to vote in their all-important primary on April 22, not to mention Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos voters. On Election Day, I expect the voter pool in Pennsylvania to include more Democrats than Republicans. But I don’t think the margin will be 14 percent. Something akin to 2006’s 43D, 38R, 19I sounds about right.

    This is all a lead-in to note that two recent polls that show Obama doing fabulously have some pretty wide margins in terms of party ID in their voter pool. Gallup’s got a sample that is 49 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, and the ABC/Washington Post poll that is generating buzz has a sample that, with leaners, is 54 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican.

    Look, if the electorate in November is going to be 16 percent more Democrat than Republican, and 54 percent of the voting public identifies themselves as Democrats, then it’s a foregone conclusion that Obama’s going to win in a landslide, and we can all go home now.

    Kirsten Soltis laid out why there isn’t much historical precedent for this:

    In 1988, Democrats had a three-point party ID advantage over Republicans (38-35). In 1992, Democrats still had a three-point party ID advantage over Republicans (38-35). In 1996, that advantage increased to four – a shift of one point (39-35). In 2000, Democrats were steady, up by four (39-35), and in 2004 they dropped to even (37-37).

    During presidential years, over the last five presidential elections, the biggest party ID gap was four points, and the greatest swing was four points as well.

    Arguments can certainly be made that in this environment, Democrats should be expected to have a huge partisan shift in their favor. But note that in 2006, when Democrats clearly found enormous success at the ballot box, that the advantage in party ID was only three points (38-35). Polls leading up to the election showed party ID gaps as big as eleven points (Newsweek’s poll on Oct 5-6, 2006), rarely showing party ID gaps of less than +5 for the Democrats.

    That’s worth repeating — in the best year for Democrats in congressional races since 1974, the partisan makeup of the electorate was 3 percent, and every major poll overestimated the party ID gap. (I can see the liberal response now – if polls show the current partisan breakdown is three to five times better then 2006, then the new Democratic House majority should be in the range of 699 to 1165 seats! Out of 435!)

    This isn’t to say that recent polls aren’t bad news for McCain-Palin. But I just don’t think the voter ID split that they’re using will be the same as the voters who show up on Election Day.

  103. David says:

    Venting here…It amazes me how the MSM can spin the economy to make out to the the only person that can save it. If obama wins and the country goes south who is the MSM going to blame then? Congress and the white house will be controlled by dems.

  104. David says:

    Venting here…It amazes me how the MSM can spin the economy to make sound like that the the only person that can save it is Obama. If obama wins and the country goes south who is the MSM going to blame then? Congress and the white house will be controlled by dems.

  105. Jeff S. says:

    I believe Biden does have a health issue. You’re all just looking under the physical column.

  106. John B says:

    #99 “John, I think they could work out a deal to have Biden become Sec. of State in exchange.” Big Joe

    This will not happen. How could he have a health problem that made him drop out of the race, but allowed him to be Sec. of State two months later?

    Plus, it would require Barack Obama admitting he was behind. He will not do that. If Barack Obama is behind in the polls the Democrats begin to panic and become demoralized.

    I actually think Hillary would accept, but the chaos would cause them to lose anyway.

  107. John B says:

    John McCain may be behind in the polls this week, but ask yourself who is more likely to have their support overstated by the polls?

    If the election comes down to Colorado, who has the advantage?

  108. Randy says:

    To heck with Paulson’s bill. Lets ask for the same deal Warren Buffet is getting from Goldman Sachs: Preferred stock paying 10% per year, warrants for equivalent amount of common stock, and a back end penalty of 10% if they pay it off.

  109. Phil says:

    Looking at Rasmussen internals this morning – there was only a slight movement to Obama of independents from +1 to -1.

    The total difference was a massive night for Obama among Democrates. He moved to 86% among Democrats – He was at 83 yesterday meaning he got 88 or 89% last night. He’s been at 82 or 83 for the last three weeks. He didn’t get beyond 85 even during the Dem convention. I’m not sure why the spike, but there was a huge one from Dems.

    The favorables for both candidates were unchanged.

    Just one of those nights. There is no reason for Democrats to all of a sudden come home. Given the insignificant movement among Republicans and Indies I would say this was just noise. I’ll watch it tomorrow and the next day and we will be able to tell.

  110. Jeff S. says:

    Anyone want to offer an opinion on the latest practical date there could be a Hillary for Biden switch? (I don’t think it will happen. Just looking for your thoughts.)

  111. John B says:

    I believe that if Barack cannot win Colorado or Virginia, he will lose.

    I personally think that Colorado is more likely to go Blue than Virginia.

    However, if I had to guess, I would say Barack Obama needs to be up by at least 4% nationally in the polls before he is likely to win. If he is up only 3% nationally in the polls, given the potential of the “Bradley Effect”, I think Barack Obama will lose.

    JMHO, but I think for Barack Obama +3% is the Under/Over number for the election.

  112. Eph Rove! says:

    Christian Family tracker:

    McCain 60
    Obama 35

    Biggest lead for MAC to date!

    (add this one to your averages)

  113. Sharon says:

    Oh my. Those that usually pull me off the ledge seem to be teetering on it today.

    You have all convinced me over the past few weeks to ignore any polls that the MSM has anything to do with. What has happened differently that is making everyone almost suicidal?

  114. Howard Dean says:

    Biden is not going anywhere.

  115. Hugh says:

    Economic uncertainty will bring home women to the democrat party. McCain has been doing very well with women voters, but in periods of high risk they will drift back to the dems who will promise more help than reps. We must get this legislation behind us or else. If we do we will win. If we do not we will lose. Some reps will need to decide if they want to stand on principle and have Obama in the white house and larger majorities with the house and senate. Or do they want mccain in the white house. I understand their issues with the legislation, as best as one can I guess, but if another week goes by of the market having large down days we could hit a tipping point. And we might lose an election that imho we should win and win easily.

  116. Sy says:

    McCain’s lead pollster said their internal polls have been stable for the last month. Also party ID is between 4-8 Democrats.

  117. Jeff S. says:

    #116 Great points,Hugh. I agree with you totally. Let’s get “it” behind us and move on.

  118. Brin says:

    I have not seen anything yet that convinces me that McCain will not be president.

    Looking at the statistical data he is ahead in states where he needs to be ahead. Factoring in unknowns such as Bradley effect, disenchanted PUMA’s, MSM backlash I am more certain of what I see statistically.

    Factoring in intagibles such as leadership, character, who is less tainted by past disgressions, comfortability of the voter with the candidate I again am very confident that Mac will take it on Nov. 4th.

  119. messy says:

    #116, Please note that the “Democrat party” doesn’t exist and thus no one can “return to it.”

  120. Brin says:

    120. Yes you are right they are very mob like.

  121. Big Joe says:

    Bring back the Whigs!

  122. victrc says:

    messy I don’t think you’re anyne to challenge a person’s grammar. You may be the person who has posted the most ignorant comments on this board, and that’s saying a lot. You have yet to offer any coherent arguments, constructive comments or anything g withany intellectual value.

    You’re only contribution to this board is to revel in tragic events, pointing out events that hurt this country and do so with joy.

    You, and those like you who are more concerned win denegrating and destroying this country, will do more to bring your candidate down than any other single issue or event. You drive people away from your candidate with your derogatory comments.

    To be frank you disgust me, not because you support the junior senator from. Illinois but because of your contempt for this country.

  123. victrc says:

    your only….dAmn iphone

  124. Brin says:

    Messy should be very scared because her candidate is down in the polls. When you look at them with logic and historical data there is no denying this. So continue living in your bubble thinking your guy is ahead because your government sponsered media outlet is telling you that but the reality is that they are lying to you and you are allowing them to lie to you.

  125. Darrell says:

    119–don’t forget “white folk’s greed runs a world in need”

  126. Howard Dean says:


    MAC +2

  127. Howard Dean says:

    This validates the UNH poll that has MAC +2

    good news!

  128. Darrell says:

    Yes…NH is going McCain. Now we just need CD-2 in Maine, and we can get by without CO, NM and IA.

  129. HD- you totally forgot Obamas HUGE lead in HAWAII.

    Thanks Rasmussen. dont bother polling Wisconsin or New Mexico today.

    I want more states that have gone for a party 8 in the last 10 times. thats the crucial stuff…

  130. john says:

    Tim – I voted for Clinton in 92 & 96 – this will be the first election ever for me to vote Republican – John McCain

  131. Marv says:

    I thought Gallup was supposed to publish its poll at noon?

  132. DrJay says:

    I think this ABC poll could be a disaster for Obama, because the debate wil follow, and then more polls. Those polls will show the race as it should be. So no matter how the MSM tries to spin that Obama “won” a debate, the polls will be “worse” for him, and people will attribute it to Obama LOSING the debate. It will already be tough for Obama due to expectations, and MSM then has a severe credibility dilemma. They must go back and admit the poll was shamefully off after extolling it, or say that recent polling shows a McCain surge after the debate. Any thoughts?.

  133. Howard Dean says:

    Biden, Obama helped keep ‘Bridge to Nowhere’ alive

    By Drew Griffin and Kathleen Johnston
    CNN Special Investigations Unit

    DEWEY BEACH, Delaware (CNN) — Although Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden routinely mocks his Republican counterpart, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, for her onetime support of the infamous “Bridge to Nowhere,” Biden and his running mate voted to keep the project alive twice.



  134. Elliot says:


    LOL. That will be very ammusing if it plays out like that.

  135. Howard Dean says:

    Gallup (D) is 1pm

  136. GPO says:

    # 129 Darrel makes a point Ive been hammering here for a while. If Mac wins NH +1 maine electoral vote- Colorado Ohio Iowa combo does not get Obama the presidency, but we need the one Maine EV

  137. Garnetspur says:

    You are all “typical white people”

  138. GPO says:

    #137 should read
    colorado Ioa New Mexico does not get Obama the presidency

  139. Mose says:

    Ras makes three polls in a row showing a small lead for Big Mac in New Hampshire. Very nice.

    If BO picks up CO, NM, IA and VA and Mac picks up MI, that would produce a 269-269 tie. NH would then seal the deal. I don’t think this combination is the most likely, but I don’t think it is outside the realm of possibility either.

  140. Garnetspur says:

    Yes, i am going to beat this to death until a 527 puts the ad out.

    Note…he says “IS a typical white person” not “was”

  141. tanda says:

    Well, I was not encouraged by that polling conference call. The internals have a D+6-8 advantage. Contrary to what he said, Mac will not win in that gap.

  142. dblaikie says:

    McCain’s head pollster Bill McInturff in his own is giving us all a heads-up that we would do well to listen. He went public today and said that this race has been stable since the start of the month. This means that the bounce that McCain enjoyed with the Palin pick has remained steady. If that is true, and I have no reason to doubt it, then Polaris is absolutely on target when he said that this race was decided by Labor Day.

  143. Marv says:


    Thanks, Howard

  144. CambridgeRep says:

    Obama is very clearly worried about NH. He has been showing quite a few ads here in the Boston market (I have seen none from McCain.) Obama’s problem IMHO is that, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, manufacturing layoffs have been pretty low there, yet the ad he keeps running talks up layoffs at this plant in OH and talks and talks about McCain and China.

  145. Howard Dean says:

    Well, I was not encouraged by that polling conference call. The internals have a D+6-8 advantage. Contrary to what he said, Mac will not win in that gap.

    Comment by tanda — 9/24/2008

    The internals will differ from state to state.

    I don’t focus too much on Nat numbers.

    It’s the states (swing) to watch.

  146. Mose says:

    I’m with you tanda – I was a bit shocked that McCain’s internal polling shows the partisan gap at 4-8 points. My hope is that they are playing possum here to a certain extent, letting the Dems get confident that they can count on a larger gap, only to be shocked on election day. If the gap is really D+5 or larger, I don’t really see how McCain could win.

  147. Gary Maxwell says:


    Is there a link to a press release, a youtube or an audio of this. I would be interested in hearing what the internals are showing in as much detail as exists. Thanks.

  148. Howard Dean says:

    You will see some very hard hitting 527 ads the final 2 weeks.

    Stand by.

  149. DrJay says:

    #135 Elliot, it would be hilarious. So many of their attempts have backfired already. I really wonder if perhaps Obama now can’t rely on spin…if anyone bought the MSM story that this was THE poll and is legit, then he has to keep the polls around +7 to +9 or it would color the perception that he’s losing in debates (and since the economy was supposedly so important to give him this lead, then he must have been losing on the economy— a potential DISASTER).

    But, obviously, that’s just an opinion.

  150. Polaris says:

    Looks like with the exception of Ras there has not been much movement at all in the tracks (pretty much what I expect). As for Ras even with hard partisan weights, you can get a bad sample. Even the best pollsters can (and indeed statistically must from time to time) get bad samples. It happened last night with Ras.

    If it bothers you, correct it out.

    The ABC/WaPo Poll as I explained elsewhere is complete garbage and their conclusions even more so. There is nowhere close to 18% of the voters that are actually persuadable. The true number is more like 2-3% absolute tops which means this race as fossillized and it’s fossillized with Mac having a small but significant lead (I read Mac+3 which is in line with Battleground). The state polls that are coming in even with a one week lag seem to confirm this notion…..once you adjust for SoS reported partisan weights.


  151. tanda says:

    If PID has moved from even in 2004 to D+6-8 in 2008, then we can move all those state 2004 PID #s 6-8 points to the Dems. In that case, all these state polls we’ve been calling garbage become spot-on.

  152. rdelbov says:

    #136 DB

    that’s been a common themne of mine. From Sunday on RAS’s four states with 500 LV. NO movement from 09-14-2008 to 09-21-2008.

    I say also look at NH and Maine. Those states have moved towards McCain.

    ARG-SUSA-PPI can do all the VA & Co polls with wacko internals, but those states will also go McCain.

  153. Darrell says:

    the most recent ARG poll actually shows McCain leading in VA too.

  154. Marcus says:

    Polaris: What’s your response to McInturff’s comments that the party-ID gap is 6-8 points atm? Is he wrong on that?

  155. Darrell says:

    like I said yesterday, the most left leaning pollster last election was ARG, and their recent 57 state sweep of polls show McCain winning the white house.

  156. Polaris says:

    #142 He was lying. I happen to know that he was lying. Consider who was in the room with him (the MSM). The McCain campaign already considers the MsM to be an arm of the Obama campaign (and they’re certainly right about that!)

    Given that, and given there is no way that that MSM has access to his internals, he can sandbag and he is sandbaging like a ……. well he’s doing it a lot in that conferance call.

    You don’t have to take my word on it either. Take all the public polls to date and correct for 2006 partisan distributions (about the worst possible case btw) which is 38 Dem/25 GOP and then see what the national polls look like.

    You’ll see what I’m seeing (and what Mac is seeing but quite cunningly isn’t saying).


  157. Polaris says:

    #155 Yes and IMHO deliberately so. He is feeding the MSM a c–k and bull story and quite deliberately so IMHO.


  158. Howard Dean says:

    tanda, All states will not have the same party ID. I don’t think you just add 6-8 to each state.

    For instance, MI may be static but there may be a huge jump in CA and NY which are high pop states.

    CA and NY EV’s are irrelevant but MI is important.

    What am I missing?

  159. Polaris says:


    2006 was a disaster for the GOP and a great year for the Dems (better than this year) and IMHo represents the high water mark for Dem enthusiasm and low water mark for GOP enthusiasm. Party ID was 38 Dem/35 GOP.

    If anyone says D+6 to D+8 they are funning you. The MSM may be dumb enough to buy it, but we shouldn’t.


  160. Phil says:

    The Mason-Dixon Poll out of Virginia was very good news.

    As I mentioned before, the internals suddenly took a HUGE jump for Obama with Democrats. Like over night he went from the 82 or 83% of Democrats that he’s had for three solid weeks to 86? That would mean that just suddenly he got a sample of 88 or 89% of all Dems.

    Noise people.

  161. Polaris says:

    Howard Dean,

    If the partisan IDs did change by that much (which I don’t believe for a moment), you’d take the national numbers/polls and use the new weight and then place the states on the appropriate spectrum with possibly a couple of corrects for local phenomena (MI, Indiana, Iowa).


  162. Phil says:

    I was referring to RAS in my second paragraph, not MD Virginia.

  163. Howard Dean says:

    Polaris #162, That is essentially my understanding.

  164. tanda says:

    HD, sure not all states change by that amount, but that would have to be the average change.

    Pola, I agree he could be lying but also consider it at least possible he is telling the truth.

  165. Sean says:

    For what it’s worth, I live in Colorado (Colorado Springs) and recently just spent a week back in Northern Virginia. In Colorado, every commercial break has at least one, if not two or three political ads. If it’s not McCain or Obama, it’s Schaeffer or Udall for Senate. In Virginia, there were far fewer ads, although they existed. I believe both candidates are more focused on Colorado than Virginia.

  166. tanda says:

    Gallup prediction:


  167. John B says:

    I think the Black vote will be up for Barack Obama over Kerry, but he will do worse among both men and women than John Kerry did.

    John Kerry was at least as well liked among men as Barack Obama is, and John McCain will do much better among women than George Bush.

    I do not see Barack doing much better among independents than John Kerry did. That leads me to believe that the advantage is with John McCain.

    I saw an article about a month ago which said almost 100% of Blacks would have to turn out in order to swing the South to the Democrats. That just will not happen. It may keep MI blue, but GA, NC, SC etc. will not flip.

  168. Darrell says:

    the CO Rasmussen poll at 5 will be interesting. Their last one was Sunday the 14th, and it showed McCain up two.

  169. Polaris says:


    I don’t believe he’s telling the truth for an instance. The dems even when the GOP has been at their lowest has NEVER had more than a 4 pt advanatage in party ID and 2006 was a disaster for the GOP and the difference was only three. MacInturff knows this better than anyone.

    No campaign is going to give even a peek at their true internals especially to the MSM. Look at the campaigns. Mac is not campaigning as though he is behind. CHILL people!


  170. Darrell says:

    how many times do people have to say, if you want to know what the internals of each campaign look like, just look at their travel itinerary.

  171. Phil says:


    Regarding internal polling within a campaign. Is it always that well guarded or do campaigns sometimes leak it for a desired effect.

  172. Howard Dean says:


    O +3

  173. Hunter says:



  174. Darrell says:

    172…I don’t know for the life of me why the GOP doesn’t have more pollsters like PPP (D) that are out there helping them. Maybe RRR (R). I know there is Strategic Vision (R) but they have done like 5 polls in the last two months. They need a counterpart to help offset the left pollsters.

  175. Howard Dean says:

    Campaigns do with internals (publicly) the same thing they do with debates.

    Raise expectations for their opponent.

  176. Darrell says:

    So Gallup is same as yesterday?

  177. Polaris says:


    The real internals are always well guarded. There’s simply too much you can telegraph to the opposition if you let them leak.

    However, campaigns can and do lie about their internals all the time and that almost always is done for some desired political effect.

    In this case, I think the intent for the Mac campaign was two-fold: One to project confidence by (truthfully I might add) saying that there wasn’t much movement in their polls, but also to try to lull the MSM into complacency (and yes the Mac campaign now…rightly…does regard the MSM as the enemy) by releasing bogus partisan numbers that greatly favor Obama.

    That’s my take. I know that Mac’s campaign is lying about the partisan weights. What I can’t tell you with equal certainty is why (athough I think my guess is as good as any and better than most).


  178. Polaris says:

    #174 Ooooh! That was a good night for Mac on Gallup.


  179. tanda says:


    Great news. I have a tied or small M sample coming off, so no movement is good news. I figured if an O same came on, we’d lose a couple.

  180. phyl says:

    FYI, NRO’s Campaign Spot quotes Kirstin Soltis at This agrees with what Polaris is saying –

    “In 1988, Democrats had a three-point party ID advantage over Republicans (38-35). In 1992, Democrats still had a three-point party ID advantage over Republicans (38-35). In 1996, that advantage increased to four – a shift of one point (39-35). In 2000, Democrats were steady, up by four (39-35), and in 2004 they dropped to even (37-37).

    During presidential years, over the last five presidential elections, the biggest party ID gap was four points, and the greatest swing was four points as well.

    Arguments can certainly be made that in this environment, Democrats should be expected to have a huge partisan shift in their favor. But note that in 2006, when Democrats clearly found enormous success at the ballot box, that the advantage in party ID was only three points (38-35). Polls leading up to the election showed party ID gaps as big as eleven points (Newsweek’s poll on Oct 5-6, 2006), rarely showing party ID gaps of less than +5 for the Democrats. “

  181. Gary Maxwell says:

    Wasnt Gallup +3 yesterday? No movement at all?

    By the way while you all are fretting over what some pollsters are using as party ID gaps, the Congress is deliberating on a bill that if not adopted, the FED Reserve chairman says will bring dire consequences.

    I happen to think it will pass, but with Congress full of idiots, it possible that they will put this off and go home. In which case, hope you have an oversized mattress!

  182. Polaris says:

    #175 Darrel,

    Who’s going to pay for those polls and who will publish them? The fact is that many polls that are in the tank for Obama this year (Gallup…looking at you) have or had otherwise respectable and long histories. A new pollster that is in contravention with all other pollsters funded by the RNC won’t be taken seriously by anyone…even if the poll were done right…and thus be a waste of RNC resources.


  183. Darrell says:

    I don’t know why any McCain supporters should be discouraged here today. We have a poll showing McCain up three in VA, and we have polls flipping MI and NH today.

  184. Polaris says:


    I agree. I think Mac won last night by about half a point in Gallup.


  185. Marv says:

    #184 Darrell

    What poll has the flip of MI? Thanks.

  186. Darrell says:

    183…I have a phone. They could send me a call script and a list of numbers. I think that if such a company was designed right, they could get plenty of volunteers. I know I would volunteer. Each caller would be logged into a secure database via citrix connection, and post the results there. There is simply no reason that all callers have to sit in the same building to make these calls.

  187. Darrell says:

    186…it was released late yesterday, and posted today on RCP

  188. John B says:

    Every day that the market does not absolutely crash is great news. If it deflates relatively slowly, like a 1,000 points over the next one or two months that would be bad, but not catastrophic.

    If the market bursts and goes down a 1,000 in a couple of days then it could really start an avalanche and go down to 7,000.

    Slow movement is ok.

  189. Polaris says:

    #186 Yesterday’s MRA poll has a MI flip. I don’t know why Dave hasn’t flipped MI though. MRA is an “R” firm, but their MI polls (and they specialize in MI) have been historically solid.


  190. John B says:

    Of course, 1,000 points over 1 or 2 months could be bad for Republicans come November. But I meant it would not be that bad for the United States, unless you think President Barack Obama would be bad.

  191. Sy says:

    So here are the tracking polls:

    Ras -2
    Battleground +2
    Hot -6
    KOS -4
    Gallup -3

    4 out 6 show no movement. The only ones showing any movement are Ras and KOS. I can argue that Gallup actually moved to McCain a bit.

  192. Polaris says:

    Darrel (187),

    I don’t doubt you. It certainly could be done in just the way you suggest athough given my prior comments about telephone polls right now, I’d supplement with physical surveys. However, just because you take a poll doesn’t mean that people will take it seriously or that it will be published.

    That’s the problem.

    Look, we are reading a political script and the people that are hiring the public pollsters (mainly MSM) are making the pollsters call to their tune (Battleground being the possible exception due to the bi-partisan nature of the poll).

    Right now the tune calls for a large obama lead and so the pollsters are complying.

    If you want the ‘true’ state of the race (i.e. the true state of the data interpreted honestly), you must ignore the top line and dig into the internals.


  193. Polaris says:

    Kos showed Mac movement (as did Gallup if only barely). Ras showed a big Obama move, but the very large nature of the move in an otherwise very non-volatile Ras polls discountes it. Ras (Scott) got a bad outlier on a nightly sample. It happens.


  194. John B says:

    Also, I don’t know if this is a trend or anything, but my wife has NEVER voted for a Republican candidate. Not even for dog catcher. But she and some of her friends are now supporting Palin.

    According to them Barack Obama is the worst women hating sexist politician since the beginning of time. She doesn’t even say Barack Obama. She says that !%&@**&^#.

    So he may still have some trouble with Hillary Clinton supporters.

  195. Polaris says:


    Your evidence is annecdotal, but I think you may be on to something. I occures to me that working-class white women (the so-called ‘wall mart’ moms) are most susceptible to what pollsters sometimes call the Bradley-Wilder effect which (contrary to MSM claims) has nothing to do with racism and everything to do with public appearences.


  196. Joe says:

    President Bush to address nation at 9:01 p.m. ET on a proposed $700 billion bailout plan for financial institutions.

  197. Darrell says:

    193, I agree that historically it might be difficult to publish such polls, but the new media, and blogs like this have a way of working around that problem. When RCP fails to publish a poll they get bombarded with e-mails.

  198. John B says:

    Yes, it is only what I see around me, but it is like the sisterhood of We hate Barack Obama. Nothing that the Democrats say reaches them. They only want Hillary Clinton in 2012, and I guess Palin now.

    The thing this may signify though is a higher than expected turnout of women for McCain and against Obama.

    I think there is maybe as high as 5 to 10% of former Hillary supporters that will flip. If the number is 10%, that is over 2 million votes extra for John McCain.

  199. John B says:

    Of course, Barack Obama may get that many new voters and additional turnout of African Americans, but that is unlikely.

  200. Tina says:

    New Fox polls are out.

  201. rdelbov says:


    I think the internals of the polls from each candidate tell us two things. With several perameters

    1. Where they buy ads

    2. Where and when they campaign

    Here are the paremeters

    a. Obama & McCain will pretty much campaign in MO-VA-FL-MI-PA-NH-OH-WI-MN-Iowa-CO-NM-NV. Obama might plow money into WA & OR to hold them, but McCain will make limited pitches out there. These states are more or less the battlefield. That’s where everyone will campaign

    b. In addition to avoid media and volunteer fatigue each campaign will more or less make grand tours of all these states. its takes volunteers to get these events down and you have space them apart in each state

  202. michael corleone says:

    what do these polls say — O +6?

  203. Phil says:

    Polaris, the RAS sample today was puzzling. As I stated before, the Democrats supporting Obama went way up while Republican and indies stayed remarkably stable. The only time I’ve ever seen one party jump like last night was after a nomination acceptance speech. Since there was nothing of significance to create this overnight party unity, I can’t help but think it is a bad subset sample (Democrats).

    Is that possible?

  204. Tina says:

    Yeah, I think its Obama +6 in the Fox poll

    (This is with OD – I believe that is doing the national survey)

  205. Polaris says:


    Not only is it possible, it’s likely. All polls can have (and indeed must have statistically) outlier samples a certain percentage of the time. Ras (Scott) had a bad night. It happens.


  206. Phil says:

    Opinion Dynamics O +6?

    No way.

  207. michael corleone says:


    Yes – it is 45-39. Awful lot of undecided.

  208. sam says:

    Here’s why the Fox poll is garbage:

    Obama leads Men by 5%.

    It’s a joke.

  209. Polaris says:

    Anyone have a link to that poll?

    OD is fairly good about showing their work.


  210. Tina says:

    There polls are bad too. They were never good imo, OD.

  211. Darrell says:

    Rush made a good point. If you want health care run like Freddie and Fannie, then vote Obama.

  212. Brandon says:

    Even the Kossacks have McCain winning men by 7 points.

  213. Phil says:

    This poll had McCain up 3 pts 12 days ago. This can’t be true.

  214. Eph Rove! says:

    What happened to Foxnews?

    Goodness gracious!

    Are they competing with the left too?

  215. Eph Rove! says:

    If they were smart and want to keep credability they should pull this poll.

    Obama +5 with men?

    Didnt someone bother to look?

  216. Phil says:

    Hmmm. Same party ID as the one 12 days ago. Ok, can’t blame it on the size of party samples. Must be big erosion with indies.

  217. john says:

    Fox now has Obama leading 45 to 39 – I think they did a pretty good balance – i think Socialism is coming unless we can turn the tide real soon – Can we shut Bush up? He is going to blow it for McCain.

  218. Polaris says:

    This poll is trash. They clearly oversampled metro areas.

    The male vote is a dead giveway. Also I am dissapointed in OD…they are tying to hide their partisan weights but I was able to periwinkle it out of the data.

    This latest OD poll is: 43 D/35 R/ 22 I

    That’s all you need to know. Toss it.


  219. Polaris says:


    I’d look again. The internals are out of whack and this is a D+9 poll with everything that implies.


  220. Polaris says:


    One more think: OD doesn’t believe in partisan weights. They were all over the place in 2004 as well…and need I remind anyone of the infamous OD tracker?

    Didn’t think so.


  221. michael corleone says:

    opinion dynamics has always been a liberal pollster

  222. Tina says:

    And they did blow the 2004 Election. They had their head pollster saying why.

    I believe its only a registered voters poll with a +9 D ID Advantage.

  223. Eph Rove! says:

    I might have to start watching CNN!

    At least I know where they stand.

  224. Tina says:

    Also, a sharp upswing in Ds leading appears every time before there is the 1st debate. Coincidence?

  225. stop tossing out these polls.
    heres why.

    all of these polling firms, including those doing state by state polling, are over sampling democrats.
    WITH THAT, McCain is at 269-269

    so his floor is a tie.

    which means in even these skewed polls, if mccain gains over the next 5 weeks, he wins. period.

    use the existing skewed data as a floor for the mac and it looks good. its only when you foolishly view this as the ceiling (the kos dopes) that it looks bad for mccain.

  226. Phil says:

    Yes. I remember their tracker poll in 04. They had Kerry in the White House.

    I thought I saw D 41 – R 34 in the internals. Did I read that wrong?

  227. victrc says:

    ok while we, or most of us know these polls are. Not Indicative of the real race they concern me for one reason…public perception. I’ve received three emails already from very non political people who said, generally, oh wow Obama is up by 9 you better start preparing for the inevitable.

    Again we know better but we’ve all spoken about the idea that Obama needs to be up at least 5 after the debates to win, can the media tank this election by distorting the polls so much that he has that mythical lead and wins.

    I mean fox plus 6 Obama???? What the heck.

  228. Polaris says:


    You did. I warned you that this time OD is being less than forthright about showing their work. Add up the number of Dems, GOP, and Ind samples. It does not add up to 900 which means that OD tossed/weighted the final sample down.

    The TRUE sample is 863 and that’s what you have to use.


  229. Phil says:

    The whole point of these polls is to depress Republican turnout and make the election of Barack Obama a self fullfilling prophesy.

  230. Polaris says:

    #230 That is a concern which is why I will continue to moniter trends and internals for real movement. This is clearly in the MSM’s gameplan, i.e. if you lie hard enough and long enough about something, then people will come to accept it as truth and make it true.

    Twelve years ago or even eight this would work. Now? I don’t think so. I think that people are too firmly entrenched and this race is fossilized.

    Furthermore I think that both campaigns know it (even if the MSM doesn’t have a clue).


  231. Polaris says:


    True, but consider what Dr. Jay had to say earlier this thread. Eventually the reputatable public pollsters are going to have to use a decent model or they will stop being reputable (and that will cost them money for projects other than politics) so they will only follow the MSM’s tune for so long.

    When they don’t you’ll see a huge shift to MacCain that won’t be any more real than the shift away from him…and thus give an entirely negative impression of Obama’s debating skills. In fact I can already see how this story is going to end.

    In the end, the Dems will backlash at each other for “losing a sure thing with a huge lead” when in fact it never was a sure thing (quite the contrary) nor was it ever a huge lead.


  232. tanda says:


    Even reset to D+2.8, it’s O by 3.2.

  233. Polaris says:

    Whoops! Forgot to close the italics. Oops! correct


  234. Middle of the Roader says:

    Fox has Obama up by six??

    Gallup 3, Rass 2, Hotline 6, Abc 9 and yet Battleground has McCain by 2?

    This is an INSANE day!

    Makes me head spin like Linda Blair!!

  235. john says:

    rasmussen has John McCain up by two points – just released

  236. Polaris says:


    That’s true tanda but look at the rest of the internals and internal movement. It’s nonsense.

    Basically it’s a bad sample and even with that bad sample, O+3.5 is essentially MoE.


  237. Polaris says:

    #238 I didn’t think that Ras did national polls except his track or is this a state poll?


  238. john says:

    I meant to put New Hampshire

  239. Polaris says:

    Battleground has the internals and weights that make the most sense because the model has to pass bipartisan muster. That makes Battleground more careful and less subject to client bias than other public polls.


  240. Polaris says:


    Ah so. Yes, it confirms a prior poll (yesterday) that had Mac up in NH.

    If Mac is up in NH, then he is not in trouble in VA.


  241. phyl says:

    What Bill Clinton has said in the last few days about Sarah Palin and Hillary’s behavior gives away who they believe will win this election. And some of their ex campaign staff are now working with the McCain-Palin campaign. This is more telling than any polls out there.

  242. Howard Dean says:

    MAC only gets 5% of D’s in the FNC poll?


  243. Darrell says:

    McCain should pour effort in the Maine’s CD-2 to try and pick it off. That plus NH’s 4 EVs means that CO, NM, and IA all can turn blue and McCain still gets 270 and wins

  244. Polaris says:


    Agreed. HRC is setting herself up for a 2012 run.


    It’s not so strange. The pollsters this year don’t know what they are doing which is something I warned everyone would happen a month ago if you’ll recall.


  245. Polaris says:

    Howard Dean,

    Agreed. The PUMA effect alone insures that Mac will pick off about 15% Dems minimum and probably more like 20%.


  246. Darrell says:

    I am looking forward to the women vote numbers in these polls after Joe Biden arrogantly attacks Palin in the veep debate. Anyone remember what happened to Lazio after he went after Hillary in NY? Joe Biden is ten times meaner than Lazio ever hoped to be.

  247. Polaris says:


    Could be. However to reiterate Howard Dean’s point which I think is key: If you see a national poll that shows Obama getting more than 85% of the Dem vote, toss it as a bad sample. Given the Puma effect which has now been documented, 85% Dem is the absolute ceiling that Obama can expect and it’s likely going to be less than 80%.


  248. Middle of the Roader says:

    And, what’s with this number from Nbc/Wall Street Journal:

    Forty-nine percent say that Palin is unqualified to be president if the need arises, compared with 40 percent who say she’s qualified.

    By contrast, 64 percent believe Biden is qualified to be president, versus just 21 percent who disagree.

    What the $%%$! is going on?????

  249. Darrell says:

    251…what is the sample…? Any internals on the poll?

  250. Polaris says:


    It’s all part of the script. You are reading the natural result of a D+10 poll.


  251. DrJay says:

    Heh, did you see the question FOX threw into the poll for kicks? There was a discussion of this here some days ago.

    Last year, Joe Biden made about $319,000 dollars in income and gave about
    $1,000 dollars to charity. Do you think his charitable giving is better
    described as cheap, generous or about right?

    Even 60% of dems called him “cheap”. Poor Joe… everyone’s picking on him.

  252. sam says:

    On the same day that ABC and Fox show Obama up by 9 and 6 respectively, National Public Radio has a poll of 14 battleground states out, showing McCain leading Obama by 2 (46-44).

    This is a change from August, which showed Obama up by 3.

    Key points:

    1) D +7 in August has changed to D +2 in these 14 states.

    2) McCain gets 90% of Reps, Obama gets 81% of Dems. McCain leads Ind’s by 7 (44-37).

    3) McCain leads voters 55+ by 12 points (53-41). (Remember that ABC showed seniors tied.)

    4) McCain leads men by 7%, far different than Fox’s Obama lead of 5. Obama leads women by 2, but loses women over 55 by 12.

    5) McCain gets 90% of Reps, Obama gets 81% of Dems.

    6) 20% of Hillary primary voters support McCain, while 67% support Obama. (The rest 13% would presumably not vote?)

  253. Polaris says:


    Yeah that’s cute. However, if Obama is going to dump Biden he’ll have to do it soon since I think most filing deadlines are about the first week of October. For the record I see virtually no chance of that happening.

    I do see a “sudden resurgence” in MacCain support from an “unexpectedly strong” debate performance. Call me a prophet 😉


  254. sam says:

    Just for clarification, the NPR poll is bipartisan, conducted by Glen Bolger (R) and Stan Greenburg (D).

  255. Polaris says:

    #255 Sam, those actually look to be close to honest/reasonable numbers/modeling.

    From national public radio? Who’d a thunk it?


  256. Howard Dean says:

    sam, can you link it?

    What were the dates?

  257. Polaris says:


    Ah, that explains it. Battleground is bipartisan too and it also has a Mac+2 lead.

    Funny how the big Obama leads dissapear when the model has to pass bipartisan muster.

    Yeah…funny that…..


  258. dblaikie says:

    Friends, come on, take a deep breath and at least ask if these polls can even pass the smell test. I like fox news but their poll just doesn’t. There is no way that McCain is behind among men. Throw it away.

    And we might as well brace ourselves now for the NBC junk coming out at 6:30. If they have Palin’s favorables at just 40% well that is probabally the size of their rep. sample in their registered voter poll coming out. It will be another 10-16 point advantage towards the dems. When it comes laugh at it.

  259. Howard Dean says:

    More On The Poll
    The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, on Sept. 18 and 20. It consisted of a telephone survey of 800 likely voters living in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. The survey carries a margin of error of +/-3.46 percentage points

  260. sam says:

    HD/Polaris: I am tech-illiterate. Don’t know all this new-fangled link thingy.

    Dates are Sep 18 and 20. 800 likely voters in 14 battleground states.

    NPR Poll: Obama, McCain Even In Swing States

    by Mara Liasson

  261. sam says:

    Hey, I know how to link. Miracles never cease.

  262. Howard Dean says:


    In August, by a 7-point margin, more voters identified themselves as Democrats. Now, in the battleground states, the Democratic advantage in party identification has shrunk to 2 points.

  263. DrJay says:

    MidRoader, I don’t like the qualified/unqualified question, since it forces someone to fracture the spectrum of “fuzzy” gut feelings. In the FOX poll, 59% said they are at least “somewhat” comfortable with Palin as president and 77% with Biden. Based on the hatred spewn from the far left, I don’t think Palin is going to do much better than that… Dems will comprise most of the “not at all comfortables” (86% somewhat or not at all in the fox poll). Poll +7 or 8 Dem doesn’t help

  264. Polaris says:

    #262 If the VP numbers are right, then yes. The NBC poll will probably show Obama up by nearly double-digits with a near double-digit Dem advantage.


  265. Marv says:


    Fox News Carl Cameron

    McCain suspends campaign and will return to DC to help manage rescue plan,
    calls on Obama Campaing to suspend and return to DC.

  266. Howard Dean says:

    #266 validates my earlier point.

    It doesn’t matter what % the D’s are nationally, the state numbers matter.

  267. Howard Dean says:

    McCain suspends campaign and will return to DC to help manage rescue plan,
    calls on Obama Campaing to suspend and return to DC.

    Comment by Marv — 9/24/2008


    Interfering with obama’s prep time.

    Which he needs!


  268. Polaris says:


    Agreed. “Qualified” quetsions act as “push” questions in a poll skewing the results.

    Also look at the OD numbers more carefully. This is a D+9 poll.


  269. Jim says:

    Obama up 3 in Gallup today. The two previous nights were +7 Obama and +4 Obama, which means last night was McCain up 2, to come out with an average of Obama +3 for the three nights.

  270. tanda says:

    9 of 14 are Bush 04 states, so +2 is not great.

  271. Polaris says:


    Not by my numbers. The gallup number that rolled off was a tie by my calculations. That means that Mac won by about a half-point or so give or take.

    However, you are right that last night’s Gallup sample was a good one for Mac.


  272. Sy says:

    Great news on the NPR poll and this poll is after the stock market meltdown too!

  273. Polaris says:


    Actually I disagree. This is exactly where Mac wants to be. Don’t just look at the top line but look at the internals as well. This is a bipartisan model. Chances are (for a variety of reasons), Mac gets most of the undecideds.


  274. Polaris says:

    #274 IIRC just before the election, Bush was down in most “battlefield” polls of this sort in 2004.


  275. Darrell says:

    oh boy…that McCain decision is terrible. “Suspend” was certainly the wrong word to use, as it suggests that he is no longer running, like when a candidate in the primary suspends the campaigns, which means they quit.

    He should instead simply prepare for the debate and then nail Obama…now watch the Obama campaign to respond by saying McCain is chicken and trying to avoid the debate.

  276. Howard Dean says:

    Notice the bi-partisan BG has MAC +2.


  277. Darrell says:

    Please someone give me a reason to think that McCain’s decision will work out. On the surface it seems like a terrible mistake.

  278. Howard Dean says:

    Darrell, NO WAY.

    It was the right call.

    Country above politics.

    He’s daring Obama to ignore his call.

    Very smart move.

    Obama NEEDS the prep time.

    Rope a dope!

  279. Polaris says:

    I’ll wait and see. If Obama doesn’t suspend his campaign and return to DC, then he looks irresponsible.

    Besides, it’s already Wednesday. Any prep work for the debate (for both candidates) has already been done for the most part.

    It’s a PR stunt on McCain’s part that costs him nothing.


  280. Polaris says:

    If Obama doesn’t heed the call, then he is just another “usual” politician which given Obama’s unique campaign in the primary as well as appeal is poison to the BO campaign.

    The last thing Obama needs to show is that he is the “same as usual” politician.


  281. Hunter says:

    To have a debate on foreign policy when the economy is the most pressing issue?…

    It’s friggin brilliant on McCain’s part…

    Shows leadership which is severely lacking from Obama…

    Shows that putting the country first is more important than a debate on foreign policy which he would surely wipe the floor with Obama on…

  282. Darrell says:

    I just don’t like how it looks. It puts McCain close to the mess, while Obama can stay far away from it. The reality is that this is a DEM problem, and they are already getting the perception out that this a GOP problem.

  283. Howard Dean says:

    Big Drudge headlines on MAC.

    VERY smart!

    Guess what else Obama can’t do?


  284. Howard Dean says:

    Darrell, you’re reading this wrong.

    Country first!

    We have a crisis, this is VERY shrewd!

  285. David says:

    #281, i agree with Darrell. The media will spin it to make it look bad for McCain.

  286. Darrell says:

    I am willing to be wrong on this, its just that this race is McCain/Palin vs. Obama/Biden/msnbc/abc/cbs/cnn/npr/foreign dictators/newspapers

    Its just a very risky move, but of course I have to root for McCain and hope it works out.

    Obama just responded saying he won’t cancel debate, and will not return to DC

  287. Darrell says:

    so it looks like Obama people are going to go with the McCain is chicken to debate the messiah route.

  288. Darrell says:

    The news broke as Rush was signing off for the day. He just announced it and cursed as his voice faded away. Now Hannity is on, and is soldiering on hoping that this will work out.

  289. David says:

    Prehaps, the msm was right. Sarah united the base but did little for th independents…not like ridge or Mitt would have done anything for the independents either.

  290. Polaris says:


    I disagree. I’d simply wait a bit.


  291. Marv says:


    It’s my opinion that this is the correct thing for Senator McCain to do,
    one so many levels.

    The country comes first, it is not just a slogan to him. One can never go wrong putting the country first (particularly if you want to be President of it.)

  292. phyl says:

    In this time of severe economic crisis, a LEADER rises to the challenge. That’s how I read what McCain says. His response strongly underscores his “Country First” theme. In my mind, this is the difference between a senior senator and a junior one.

  293. DrJay says:

    This could be even worse for Obama if they call McCain chicken to debate him– see post #234.

    If the polls inevitably
    come back to earth, Obama will look like not only a loser in the debates, but just a loser period.

    Also, Obama has been prepping to “debate the issues”; McCain’s talking point of “why won’t he debate me on issues” could soon go away.

    Now he can change the theme to, “now suddenly he’s FINALLY prepared to just talk issues, instead of being ready to apply real answers, like mine, to the current crisis when we had a chance to do something about them.” i.e., “not ready to lead” theme

  294. Rachel says:

    Obama has done nothing but campaign for the presidency since becoming a senator. What’s he supposed to do now? Suspend his campaign and show up in D.C. to vote “present?” I really don’t think it will make any difference for Americans whether Obama’s in Washington or not. McCain, on the other hand, might be able to accomplish something.

  295. Rachel says:

    Looks like Obama might alreay be rethinking his earlier decision. Now he’s going to respond within the hour.

  296. Brandon says:

    RAS NH Senate

    Sununu 52%
    Shaheen 45%

    I think this is the first time Sununu has ever been up.

  297. phyl says:

    Where would the voters want Obama and McCain this week: debating foreign policy or trying to help fix the economic crisis? The answer is obvious. There is no downside for McCain for doing this and it shows his leadership skills.

  298. rdelbov says:

    Brandon can that be???

    Frankly for what its worth Little John has a huge Money advantage and has been tireless in his campaigning in NH.

    He clobbered her on the drilling issue.

  299. DrJay says:

    Brandon, that poll is a shocker. I wonder if it’s an outlier? McCain was shown up, but +7 for Sununu? Did something happen to fundamentally change that race?

  300. Hugh says:

    I do not understand the purpose of canceling the debate. In my view McCain had the first debate on foreign policy where he dwarfs Obama. It comes at a time when he needs to stem his slide in the polls. The first debate is the one that leaves the most lasting impression. It is beyond me that he cancels it. Why not go to Washington and suspend the balance of his campaign, but do the debate?

    As I suggested before in the last two minutes the market went down 50 points. arrrghhh

  301. Sy says:

    The move amounts to nothing. It could be a benefit for McCain if people perceived him as a leader. Bottom line, no damage done.

    Stop crying you pessimists. It is NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT. At most, McCain will probably lose maybe 3-4 days of “campaigning” …there are other ways of campaigning besides the traditional way.

  302. Hugh says:

    It is not about losing some campaigning days. It is about McCain kicking Obama’s butt in a debate, which is exactly what I think would happen. So why cancel it?

  303. Greg from MD says:

    Looks like the debate would be delayed, rather than cancelled.

  304. Big Joe says:

    Mac “suspending” campaign? why use that verbiage? Is he really trying to say that he is no longer running for president? That’s pretty strong language.

  305. Rachel says:

    So Obama is refusing to postpone the debate. Does this mean the country gets to see Obama hunkered down cramming for his test, leaving plenty of pre-debate time for a massage and makeup, while McCain works to fix America’s problems, showing up last minute to debate the little wimp?

  306. Big Joe says:

    This is a very interesting strategy by MAC and very risky.

    On the one hand, the debates will be an opportunity to change the subject. All we’ve been talking about is the financial crisis and that benefits BO. The debates can change that.

    So why cancel them and keep the crisis in the headlines?

    Maybe he thinks he needs to take another calculated risk here to save his campaign (like going negative early, and Palin selection). Its very very risky .. lets see how it plays out but I think he’s missing a golden opportunity here to get the crisis OUT of the headlines.

  307. phyl says:

    I was just doing a rare drive-by of MSM online news headlines. To me they all look positive for McCain right now. Think of how the indie voters would be viewing them as well.

  308. Rachel says:

    CNN headline –

    McCain: Campaign can wait, crisis is ‘historic’

  309. Rachel says:

    MSNBC headline –

    McCain calls for delaying debate

    Yup, that’s right. Just McCain delaying the debate.

  310. Rachel says:

    Fox News headline –

    McCain Halts Campaign Over Financial Crisis

  311. Rachel says:

    Yahoo headline –

    McCain seeks to delay debate to focus on economy

  312. Rachel says:

    McCain cancels Letterman

  313. MDefl says:

    Here is my 2 cents. Friday’s debate will happen but Mac took the high road by offering to delay it while dealing with the crisis. Obama, in contrast, looks small even if he tries to change his mind.

  314. phyl says:


    Exactly. That’s kind of how this reads from AP as well:

    “NEW YORK – Barack Obama’s campaign says he is inclined to go ahead with Friday’s presidential debate, even though rival John McCain is calling for a delay. McCain said Wednesday that he wants to stop all campaigning tomorrow and postpone the debate so they can work together on the financial crisis.”

  315. Marcus says:

    If McCain stays away from the debate, but Obama shows up, you just know the MSM will spin this so it looks like McCain is afraid to face Obama one on one. And foreign policy is McCain’s strong suit. Would be hard for the Mac camp to put a positive spin on this one if it all come down to it.

  316. AloneInOregon says:

    I believe the MSM will take a very different approach to this situation. They won’t label McCain chicken. Instead (and I saw Carl Cameron/Shep doing this on FNC the instant it broke) they will say that McCain did this to shake up the race. It is ‘a political stunt’ aimed at diverting attention from McCain’s ‘very real decline in recent polls’.

    There’s nothing worse than hearing analysts saying how all these crappy (read: completely bogus) polls show a big trend towards Obama, and then follow it up by saying this McCain move is an attempt to stop the bleeding.

  317. Benni says:

    NV Poll
    Hussein 47%
    McCain 45%