EGO BOOST
HEDGEHOG REPORT SOCIAL NETWORK

Search

Gallup’s Track Record

David Paul Kuhn at the Politico.com did some research and consolidated the Gallup poll results for the past fifteen elections at around this time of the Election year to see how well those poll results compared to the final results. For simplicity, here are the polls Gallup released around the time of July 4th, according to Kuhn, and what the final result turned out to be for every election since 1948.

2004
Poll – Kerry 46% – Bush 44% (Dates 6/21-6/23)
Final – Bush 51% – Kerry 48%

2000
Poll – Bush 45% – Gore 36% (Dates 6/23-6/25)
Final – Bush 48% – Gore 48%

1996
Poll – Clinton 51%- Dole 35% (Dates 6/27-6/30)
Final – Clinton 49% – Dole 41%

1992
Poll – Bush 32% – Clinton 31% – Perot 28% (Dates 7/9-7/10)
Final – Clinton 43% – Bush 37% – Perot 19%

1988
Poll – Dukakis 47% – Bush 41% (Dates 7/8-7/10)
Final – Bush 53% – Dukakis 46%

1984
Poll – Reagan 50% – Mondale 40% (Dates 6/29-7/02)
Final – Reagan 59% – Mondale 40%

1980
Poll – Reagan 40% – Carter 38% (Date 6/24)
Final – Reagan 51% – Carter 41%

1976
Poll – Carter 49% – Ford 28% (Date 6/22)
Final – Carter 50% – Ford 48%

1972
Poll – Nixon 42% – McGovern 31% – Wallace 19% (Date 6/13)
Final – Nixon 60% – McGovern 37%

1968
Poll – Humphrey 34% – Nixon 32% – Wallace 17% (Dates 6/26-7/01)
Final – Nixon 43% – Humphrey 42% – Wallace 13%

1964
Poll – Johnson 74% – Goldwater 19% (Dates 6/25 – 6/30)
Final – Johnson 61% – Goldwater 39%

1960
Poll – Kennedy 46% – Nixon 41% (Date 6/28)
Final – Kennedy 50% – Nixon 50%

1956
Poll – Eisenhower 58% – Stevenson 36% (Date 7/10)
Final – Eisenhower 58% – Stevenson 42%

1952
Poll – Eisenhower 56% – Stevenson 34% (Date 7/10)
Final – Eisenhower 55% – Stevenson 44%

1948
Poll – Truman 40% – Dewey 39% (Date 7/14)
Final – Truman 50% – Dewey 45%

You can get more commentary from Kuhn here. Two things I get from this are that in four of the past five elections, Gallup’s poll at Independence Day has shown the eventual loser ahead in their poll. The only time it was right was 1996, when Dole never even put up a fight against Clinton. I will also note that excluding the earliest elections of 1948/1952/1956 and the 2000 election, Gallup has always underestimated the support of the Republican candidate. Every poll, the Republican candidate always wins by a bigger margin, loses by a smaller margin, or in some cases wins when trailing in the July polling.

By the way, the Gallup daily tracking poll released on July 4th claim Barack Obama would win by a 47%-43% margin.

For what it is worth….

Posted by Dave at 11:02 am
Filed under: 2008 President | Comments (94)

94 Responses to “Gallup’s Track Record”

  1. Howard Dean says:

    I don’t know that this comparison is valid or relevant.

    The methodology (presumably) has changed since 1948.

    Also, did Gallup do a tracking poll last year?

    Are their tracking and regular polls somehow different?

    If not, why would they do both? If they release their tracking polls daily, why would a news or private (political) agency PAY for a separate poll?

  2. Gary Maxwell says:

    Virtually all polls understate Republican support. Its not a bug but a feature for many polls, who are commissioned by a leftwing media and meant to drive an agenda and sell whatever they are selling. I dont think Gallup all by itself ( not the ones commissioned by others ) has an agenda, and they are the oldest of the pollster orgs. But its pretty clear here that even Gallup always finds more Democrats than show up on election day.

    But if you have been reading my posts, you would already have known this, just not in such graphic detail.

  3. Brandon says:

    Rasmussen coming this week:

    State Polling in Missouri, Wisconsin, New Jersey and More

  4. Tim V says:

    from politico.

    hd linked to it in the thread below

    In one excerpt from the audio book that Hewitt played on his show in March, Obama alters his voice to mimic Wright’s and repeats passages from a sermon decrying a society “where white folks’ greed runs a world in need.” Later Obama says of Wright’s preaching, “I found the tears running down my cheeks.”

    and some music to go with it ?

    96 tears

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrTnaPa9BaA

  5. Howard Dean says:

    OT:

    There are two bans on off-shore drilling; Executive and Congressional.

    Bush should hold a major presser 2 days before (maybe 4 b/c 2 would be Sat) the Dem Convention to announce the critical need to lift the Executive ban.

    Then announce the Dems are the only thing preventing increased drilling/production.

    There will already be MAJOR chaos if Hillary is removed from the ballot.

    This would enhance that.

    Enjoy your Convention!

  6. Howard Dean says:

    Tim V, Let’s put it this way.

    Obama will spend the entire month of Oct playing defense.

    And “explaining” things.

    Not a good position to be in.

  7. Brandon says:

    If we can keep CO red, I don’t see how Obama wins. I don’t see Obama winning VA or NC or OH.

  8. Jeff G says:

    I think it’s quite remarkable that McCain is within 4% in the Gallup tracking poll. Obama has been the anointed one for some time in the MSM. He supposedly gives the greatest speech in history every week and has an enormous cash advantage-not to mention having all things right, pure and good in the world on his side as the next deliverer of the republic. Against all of this, McCain is only 4% behind? If I had to guess blindly at the poll numbers purely based on what the media portrays, I would guess that Sen. Obama leads by a Reagan-Mondale-size spread. If McCain can get his campaign in shape, this election is very winnable.

  9. Howard Dean says:

    McCain can drop IA and CO and still win.

    Though, in the end we retain CO.

  10. Howard Dean says:

    Speaking of cash advantage, I’m sure if obama hit the $100 million mark for June, it would have been released already.

    Anything less than $70 million will show serious weakness.

    After-all, The D’s became “united” in June. And all of Hillary’s big money and small donor people should have thrown additional millions at Obama.

    Right?

  11. Bonncaruso says:

    On the contrary. McCain had the luxury of three full months to pull ahead and he is still stuck in the mud. The GOP is heading for a pasting in November if it doesn’t take a hard look at what has gone so very wrong with this party in the last 8 years.

  12. Howard Dean says:

    The GOP is heading for a pasting in November if it doesn’t take a hard look at what has gone so very wrong with this party in the last 8 years.

    Comment by Bonncaruso — 7/6/2008 @

    Why does Obama keep endorsing Bush and McCain’s positions?

  13. Tim says:

    #4————At least, he’s polling some states that might actually be in play. I’m sick of polls of New York and Arizona.

  14. Bonncaruso says:

    Obama already has at least 250,000,000 dollars and will probably hit 500,000,000 for the GE.

    No candidate in history has ever done this. So, your criticism of him makes no sense in light of the abysmal GOP fundraising for McCain. He should try to even get to 200,000,000 before you jump on Obama.

  15. Gary Maxwell says:

    No messing with his karma now Howard. Let him delude himself, it will make the shock in November so much greater!

  16. Bonncaruso says:

    No, Obama endorses positions he feels are correct. IF they occaisionally line up with Bush or McCain, I couldn’t give a rat’s ass about it.

  17. Bonncaruso says:

    It’s not karma, it’s hard numbers. But go ahead, assume that 2008 will be like 2004. I will be happy to send you a bit fat recipe for humble pie when this is all over with.

  18. Gary Maxwell says:

    The position of the day? ON PBA apparently its the position of the hour! At least when Kerry flip flopped, it was to a position he stuck with for awhile.

  19. Gary Maxwell says:

    Get ready for some humble pie yourself, with the 500 million quote first off.

    You are awfully cocky given the sobering news Dave posted at the top of this thread.

    Do you whistle by graveyards too?

  20. Howard Dean says:

    #

    No, Obama endorses positions he feels are correct. IF they occaisionally line up with Bush or McCain, I couldn’t give a rat’s ass about it.

    Comment by Bonncaruso — 7/6/2008 @ 12:43 pm

    High comedy.

  21. Howard Dean says:

    Obama already has at least 250,000,000 dollars and will probably hit 500,000,000 for the GE.

    Bonn

    He does NOT have $250 million.

    He has FAR, FAR less than that.

  22. Tina says:

    He had only about 30 million cash on hand, about the same as McCain about 3 weeks ago. He is pouring a ton of money into GA, MT, etc., which is stupid imo.

    He has nowhere near $200 million on had. Try 15% of that figure.

  23. Bonncaruso says:

    What the hell kind of news is that?!? Rasmussen, an admittedly very GOP pollster, stills shows Obama up and with no signs of going down. And shows him up farther and more consistently than Gallup.

    The only ones here who are cocky are GOPers who are so caught up in their propaganda that they don’t even see the big truck about to slam into their party.

    And graveyards don’t interest me. That too, is a right wing playbook trick. Doesn’t work with me.

    Fact: Obama is pulling up in red states in a way we have not seen since 1964. Whether or not it stays that way, who knows, but it is obvious that Obama is making huge, and I mean, huge inroads in states where McGovern, Carter, Mondale, Dukakus, Clinton, Gore and Kerry didn’t even try and would not have had a chance. And McCain? His battleground potential is shrinking statistically all over the place. So, it’s not just the national polls. They are only partly useful. The real story is the state to state story.

    I have spent months pouring over these numbers and there is no doubt that a DEM tidal wave is beginning.

    So, if you think that really looking at the numbers is being cocky, feel free. At least I won’t get hit by that truck.

  24. Bonncaruso says:

    I just love to see republicans get their dander up. Dear Lord, don’t even think to challenge their holy writ….

    🙂 🙂

    BC is laughing all the way to the bank.

  25. Brandon says:

    Fact: Obama will not win any deep red states.

  26. rdelbov says:

    RAS is still using a 12% margin for the democrats. This is silly and it accounts for all of the Obama margin

  27. Tina says:

    I detailed those figures in a post here several weeks ago and it was linked I think to politico.com site.

    There are concerns about Obama’s campaing spending. Actually, I am hearing a lot of complaints from sources.

    Maybe, we’ll hear about it from the msm in a couple of weeks, or possibly longer. They are still doing their public organisms for the Obumbler.

  28. Tina says:

    He’s definelty not going up in Ras. Remember, it both Gallup and Ras., he was up by 8. Now, he’s only up by 4 or 5.

    Gallup is not polling likely voters yet.

  29. Howard Dean says:

    What the hell kind of news is that?!? Rasmussen, an admittedly very GOP pollster, stills shows Obama up and with no signs of going down. And shows him up farther and more consistently than Gallup.

    Bonn

    We don’t have National elections.

    Think Electoral College.

  30. Bonncaruso says:

    Fact: no one can yet know if he can win red states, but VA sure looks iffy for the GOP at best. IN is also rocking in the wind. And with only +6 margin in MS, McCain has his work cut out for him just to maintain red states.

  31. Howard Dean says:

    RAS is still using a 12% margin for the democrats. This is silly and it accounts for all of the Obama margin

    Comment by rdelbov — 7/6/2008

    He is now using +9.44

  32. Tina says:

    And democrats usually win June anyway.

    The Obumbler is on the defensive about Wes Clark – who has now been fired 4 times professionally comments.

    Tbe no energy plan of the Obumbler aka lets leave gasoline prices of $4+ a gallon is also a loser.

  33. Bonncaruso says:

    Howard, that was my point, if you had just read to the end. The real story is the state to state story. next time: read before you pounce.

  34. Tina says:

    We pounce here because you said that his national numbers were going up and that he had a $200 million advantage.

    Those are false claims, and they have been rebutted.

  35. Howard Dean says:

    Fact: Obama is pulling up in red states in a way we have not seen since 1964.

    Bonn

    Polls are not facts.

    Are you confused?

  36. Jeff G says:

    Bonn,

    Your math skills are in need of refinement. Yes, Obama has raised all of that money, but he has spent it as well (remember, balance sheets include pluses AND minuses). He had an advantage over McCain in cash on hand at the end May (Obama led $43 million to $31 million). But they were close to even in May fundraising (Obama by a $23 million to $21 million margin). Given the fact that Obama’s largest two-month tally was approximately $98 million (Feb.-March 2008), and that fundraising has nearly equalized in recent weeks, how do you project Obama outraising McCain by such an amazing margin for the general election, which only includes the nine weeks between the conventions and election day? McCain will get public financing of $84 million that only applies to those nine weeks, not the rest of the summer. He can spend all he raises between now and the GOP convention.

    Math is a wonderful thing. The answers come up the same no matter what political philosophy you subscribe to (except in the world of 1984, of course).

  37. Tina says:

    You have to look at his outflows. The Obumbler is spending a ton of dough, and it may just be in the wrong states for him to do it. It may also be a bit too early.

    Anyway, that’s what I hear. Wait till October when the Obumbler has no $ on hand.

    I’ve seen this behavior before – just check the 1994 CA Governor’s race.

  38. Bonncaruso says:

    No, I wrote that he has raised 250,000,000, and indeed he has raised 287,397,945 as of the end of May. Actually, he has about 45,000,000 in the bank, but June, July, August, September and October will all bring in big bucks.

    If the statement was not clear enough, then apologies.

  39. Howard Dean says:

    SMEAR: Obama will lose UT.

    FACT: Obama is pulling up in red states in a way we have not seen since 1964.

  40. Bonncaruso says:

    But I still love watching those GOPers get their dander up…well, gotta run….and I mean, literally, 20 KM.

    Ciao.

  41. Howard Dean says:

    No, I wrote that he has raised 250,000,000,

    BONN

    Obama already has at least 250,000,000 dollars and will probably hit 500,000,000 for the GE.

    Bonn

    You are Obamaesque.

  42. Tina says:

    And there are campaing rules – which meant that the Obumbler and McCain were rougly even at $31 million each until the conention. But Jeff G is correct.

    So,this means until the conventions – both campaigns have roughly the same to spend.

    The Obumber has had 4 months of declining fund raising $$$$.

  43. Howard Dean says:

    well, gotta run….and I mean, literally, 20 KM.

    Ciao.

    Comment by Bonncaruso — 7/6

    Translation: I’ve been defeated!

  44. rdelbov says:

    +9.44 is still unreal even compared to 2004 & 2006.

    Fantasy land

  45. Tina says:

    And I’m just telling you that the $$$ is being spent rapidly by the Obumbler in states that will not matter later on..

  46. Tina says:

    Well, I have to run too. These temps out here are going back up to 100+ in Ca.

    Adios.

  47. Jeff G says:

    Let’s at least keep history in perspective, folks. Demoracts have done quite well in recent Red states in several elections since 1964, including Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Our current Red-Blue breakdown is a phenomenon of the 2000 and 2004 elections. I don’t think it’s safe to consider 1972, 1980, 1984 and 1988 as markers of a Red-Blue barrier. Nixon, Reagan and Bush won big in a lot of places those years (California included). In fact, the democratic candidates won a COMBINED 22 electoral college tallies (18 states plus DC each year) in those elections.

  48. TGCA says:

    Tina:

    I dunno where you are but I’m in the SF Ebay and we’re projected for about 80 today. I have not had to use my AC once yet this summer but if it hits 100, I will crank the AC up…and selfishly contribute to global warming. Sorry! But I just can’t stand to see my dog suffer in the heat. I’m a baaaaaaaaaaad person.

  49. TGCA says:

    Jeff: #48

    We should also keep the polling in perspective too since I truly believe many in the MSM try to use it as a propoganda tool to prop up BO. Do they really think if they report that BO is ahead or headed for victory enough times that it will sway Reps and conservatives voting decisions? I doubt it! BO should be waaaaaaaaaay ahead in this current political climate on a state-by-state basis, yet he is not. That is a reflection of his lack of appeal among a number of demographics at this point in time. HE IS NOT A UNITER! Saying it is so does not make it true. The guy is having trouble uniting his own party, nevermind Reps and conservatives.

    Let’s also keep in perspective that BO is weak in a number of key demographics he must do much better in to win the GE (i.e. Jewish, white males, and working class voters to name a few).

    Finally, the polls consistently underpoll republicans. I seriously doubt many Reps are going to vote for BO because they are PO’d with Bush or because they’re not crazy about McCain. BO is the antithesis of what they stand for in values and ideology so unless they forfeit their vote and stay home in mass to watch an extreme liberal get elected, I do not see them voting for him…except of course, those angry ones clinging to their Bibles and guns.

  50. Brandon says:

    Like Howard said earlier, if Obama had a monster fundraising month in June, it would have been plastered all over the news.

    The fact that it isn’t out yet, means that it might have been lackluster(relatively speaking).

  51. Brandon says:

    Happy Birthday President Bush!

  52. TGCA says:

    …well it is Sunday, and this trailer park dwelling, tobacco chewing, gas guzzling, angry, overpaid and underworked, conservative has gotta go cling to his Bible and guns now. 🙂

    See yaw later!

  53. TGCA says:

    *TGCA gives BUSH big B-day hug!*

  54. TGCA says:

    Long live Bush!

    Viva la Bush!

    4 more years!

    Sorry! I just love to drive the libs crazy. Here in SF they cringe when I say things like that.

  55. Michael says:

    I just do not understand why anyone is afraid of Obama. Yes, McCain’s campaign seems a bit unsteady…but with the shakeup that is all going to change. June has been a awful month for Obama with all his clumsy flip-flopping it makes you wonder what has happen to his supposedly invincible campaign staff. Slick Willie was able to appeal to the middle because for one he was a governor of a Southern state where he governed from the middle. Obama is a liberal senator from Illinois…nobody is going to buy this “moving to the middle” nonsense and all he is doing is making himself look dishonest. The sheen is coming off Obama and amazingly he is doing it to himself.

  56. Wes says:

    About the 1960 poll: Nixon actually received more votes than Kennedy that year. The reason Kennedy is said to have gotten more votes is the overwhelming number of votes cast for “Democrat” in Alabama. Because there were actually two Dems on the ballot that year, Kennedy and Byrd, the electoral tally was split slightly in Kennedy’s favor with Byrd receiving the rest of the electors. When this is all factored in, it becomes clear Nixon had a razor-thin, 58000-vote popular lead.

  57. rdelbov says:

    Wes

    That is correct. Every once in awhile I try to trick people up by commenting on how 1960 & 2000 had the popular vote go one way the electoral college vote go the other way.

    Its really hard to describe how crucial LBJ was in 1960. He certainly found enough votes to pull Kennedy in. Certainly he delivered Texas (by hook or crook/did Texas know the difference back then) plus with the help of Richard Russell he wheeled & dealed with the Southern states to hold enough Southern delegates in line to sneak in.

    Boy to be a fly on the wall back then.

  58. Wes says:

    Ultimately I think Kennedy won in 1960 legitimately. Johnson was popular enough in Texas for Kennedy to take the state–which wouldn’t go Republican again till 1972 by the way. Illinois may have gone Dem because of Daley’s Dead, but that wasn’t enough for Nixon to overtake Kennedy. As far as 2000 goes, Bush definitely needs to thank God Nader siphoned more votes from Gore than people anticipated. Had that not been the case, Bush would clearly have lost Florida by about 500-1000 votes. The only time I believe the man who shouldn’t have won did win was in 1876 when Hayes beat Tilden because of a stacked Electoral Commission despite a sharp loss in the popular vote. Other than that, all Presidents–even those who lost the popular vote–took office based on the rules in place.

  59. L Te Paske says:

    Therre were three states that could have been contested in 1960 at any rate the Dems do have an energy plan, new vehicles have to get 35 miles per gallon by 2020.

  60. Harry says:

    It’s to early to count chickens, but having said that, I’d rather be Obama then McCain. The problem for McCain is it’s hard to see why he’d win. Why his situation would improve. Why the Republican name brand would improve.Why voters would say, let’s go with another Republican after the last eight years. I know why conservatives would say yes to that but not the rest of the country.

  61. Michael says:

    Harry – why after all said and done…would a no experience, dishonest liberal be chosen as opposed to the “safe bet” of McCain. I don’t think it is going to happen in November.

  62. Harry says:

    62. Like I said,that’s the way conservatives see it, but not the rest of the country. You guys are talking like you still run the show, you don’t and everyone knows it but conservatives.

  63. Sharon says:

    Poor Harry.

  64. Harry says:

    Safe bet for what? More of the same policies that got us where we are? I don’t know if you are aware of it, but 70% of the country thinks George Bush is a total loser and the country has gone to seed. I think most voters are thinking, what have we got to lose going with Obama? We shall see, my predictions have been better then conservatives this year.

  65. Tim V says:

    the wisdom of harry…

  66. Roscoe Hudd says:

    In order to make more of an apples-to-apples comparison, we need to find out in which of those years the incumbent’s President’s approval languished around 25%, 80% of Americans thought the country was on the wrong track, and Democrats had a 10-point (and growing) margin on Republicans in party self-ID.

    Can’t think of any year like that? Yeah, then console yourself with false historical analogies all you want, but the GOP has screwed up so badly that America will be sure to turn them out on their sorry asses in November.

  67. Michael says:

    Harry – you don’t go to a intern for brain surgery and you don’t hire a paralegal to try a case…so why would America hire someone with no experience to be President? That is Obama’s Achilles Heel.

  68. Tim B. says:

    This is just about as reasonable as looking to see which football teams’ wins have “corresponded” to the election results in past years… Seems a little desperate to spend time fishing for some good news for McCain in this way. I’m not confident that he’ll win or lose, it just seems random and desperate.

  69. TGCA says:

    Tim B. and Roscoe: #’S 67 and 69

    The same reasoning you employ about historical polls and results not being a predictor of future results can also be said about current polling being an accurate predictor of results, especially when many of the polls have skewed sampling in favor of BO.

    I agree that this is tough times for Reps, because of the normal political cycle and challenges facing Bush. But despite what many libs believe, the Rep brand is far from dead, as evidenced by fundraising events. If you remember, that is exactly what they were saying about the Dems in 2004 and 2005, about how they could not win elections, and the party was dying, and look what happened in 2006…a comeback…albeit due mostly to Reps tarnishing themselves as opposed to Dems improving their brand.

    BO should be way ahead at this point due to these “gifts” from the Reps and he is not. That goes to his appeal as a candidate in these serious times. The youth vote, the black community, and the latte liberals are not enough to sustain his momentum into the GE and guarantee a win. It does not mean he can’t win, it just means he has challenges that other electable Dems could have more easily overcome.

    Like it or not, the US is a center-right country and BO is way to the left of that center and that poses great challenges for him as either a candidate or if he gets elected. If he gets elected in 2008, then I believe 2010 will be a very tough year for Dems, especially in the house.

    A left-winged AA candidate or president will have very difficult time uniting Jewish, Latinos, and Reagan Dems, just as a right-winged Caucasian male would have difficulty uniting AA, gays, and feminists behind him.

    In addition, Americans are smart enough to know that McCain is not Bush, and he has proven he has a streak of independence, that cannot be said of BO. I would not be surprised to see split ticket voting for McCain as we have seen in states like CA and MA, where most statewide seats go to the Dems but the chief executive position went to a Rep.

    Remember, these are serious times. This is not the 1990’s. Americans have traditionally elected a POTUS they feel will most secure the nation or have a great respect for the protection of our nation, and that is not the message BO is currently sending.

  70. TGCA says:

    Long live Bush!

    Viva la Bush!

    Ode to King George!

    4 more years! 4 more years!

    Sorry! I can’t help myself. I know that irritates the Libs in San Francisco so I repeat it often. Drives them crazy.

    🙂

  71. Tim B. says:

    TGCA––

    >>”The same reasoning you employ about historical polls and results not being a predictor of future results can also be said about current polling being an accurate predictor of results, especially when many of the polls have skewed sampling in favor of BO.”

  72. Tim B. says:

    I have no idea what happened to the rest of my message above. Anyway, I said:

    “Current polling” suggests the general consensus between multiple independent polling organizations that specifically design polls to approximate current opinion regarding the candidates. Even if polls were intended to predict the outcome of the election, they would still warrant more confidence than do cherry-picked random events that have only coincidentally correlated to the election results in the past.

    Anyway, regarding the rest of what you said, I do partially agree, but also partially agree with what Roscoe said before you.

  73. Harry says:

    71. George Bush, the gift that keeps on giving.

  74. Michael says:

    Harry – you really need to realize that Bush is not running. Keep repeating it to yourself…”Bush is not running…Bush is not running”.

  75. Harry says:

    You can believe Bush doesn’t matter but he does. He has poisoned the well for Republicans. And he is the symbol of everything wrong with the country. He’s the Republicans Jimmy Carter. Every time he makes the news it’s another 100,000 votes for dems.

  76. TGCA says:

    Harry #76;

    …and your source for those 100,000 votes are…

  77. Harry says:

    Bush is a rope around every Republicans neck. On election night, dems will be singing, Another on bites the dust, as another Senator and Congressman on the Republican goes down. It will take 20 years to recover. Republicans are toast.

  78. Harry says:

    I haven’t heard much from the 39% club lately. Maybe it will be McCain with 39%? He isn’t doing much better outside of dixie.

  79. Asa says:

    Harry thy name is Caribou moron.

    Harry as long as the left has dimwits like yourself leading the way, the GOP will be just fine.

  80. Asa says:

    As long as Muslim, Barack bin Obama, is on the ticket, the GOP will be fine.

    Obama is a godsend to the GOP, a Muslim Socialist with a racist Wife.

  81. middle says:

    Even if Hussein wins, the GOP will take back the House and control redistricting in 2010, due to the moronic democrats raising taxes with 7 a gallon gas.

  82. Ryan says:

    What’s the matter Harry are you scared?

    Your nominee not getting the white Vote?

    Worried about the Michelle Obama tapes?

    Clinton supporters despise Obama and going to McCain?

    Virtual tie in Gallup?

    Haryy my baby boy, is your Muslim Messiah peaking and due to crash in the fall?

  83. Ryan says:

    Obama Dukakis, word up

  84. TGCA says:

    Harry:

    Part of the political cycle has to do with the number of senate seats up for re-election in 2008. The Reps have twice as many as the Dems, and this climate is more at risk, but that will reverse in 2012 when there will be only 9 Reps up for re-election against 23 Dems seats. That can spell disaster for a Dem prez as it is highly unusual for a party to have gains in 3 or more successive elections. Since the Dems gained in 2006 and will probably gain in 2008, they are likely to lose seats in 2010 and 2012, especially in Red represented states. So any gains they make may be short-lived. That’s just how the political cycle works, especially with a moody electorate. It’s too early to tell, but history always seems to repeat itself.

    In addition, Dems are not way ahead of Reps in polling or fundraising, indications of electorate satisfaction, and the Dem Congress has the lowest ever approval rating.

    If BO wins, having full power in all sectors will inevitably hurt the Dems, as they will be 100% responsible for leadership, especially with a very devisive BO…and he is devisive despite false claims that he is a uniter.

    I seriously doubt that most Americans are going to be happy with increased taxes and regulations that stifle the economy. I suspect any BO win would result in buyer’s remorse within 9 months.

    If it were not for the USSC, I would say let the Dems have this election so Reps could come back in 2010. Please do remember that nearly all of the seats Dems won from Reps in 2006 were to conservative leaning Dems and a BO presidency would be very hard for them to sustain those seats in very close districts.

  85. Harry says:

    85. Republicans lose 5 senate seat minimum. End of story.

  86. Marcus says:

    Harry is a dimwitted Alaskan, end of Story.

  87. Harry says:

    83. Worried, get real. McCain couldn’t get elected dog catcher outside of dixie.

  88. Harry says:

    82. GOP Grumpy Old People. And not enough of them.

  89. Harry says:

    Marcus? Marcus? Shmarcus, McCain is a carcus.

  90. Harry says:

    Don’t give up your bus boy job. MARCUS. Let me guess, you were named after mommies favorite TV show.

  91. Harry says:

    Harry the idiot who said Bobby Jindal would lose in 2007.

    Harry you are the one living in a Embarrasement of a state that anyone with a High School Education would avoid.

  92. TGCA says:

    OMG! Is Harry trashing himself? 🙂

  93. Harry says:

    Dave, I did not write #92. That’s wrong on a whole new level.