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Obama Surges in Indiana

Between the days of April 11-13, Survey USA did a poll for the Indiana primary and showed Hillary ahead of Barack Obama by 16%. Three days later, Survey USA did another poll and now finds Barack Obama ahead of Hillary by 5%, a ridiculous 21% turnaround…IN THREE DAYS!

PRESIDENT – INDIANA – DEM PRIMARY
Barack Obama 50%
Hillary 45%

It is amazing how fickle voters are if 1/5 of them are willing to change their minds so easily. The poll also had some head-to-head match ups for the General Election.

PRESIDENT – INDIANA – GENERAL
John McCain (R) 51%
Barack Obama (D) 44%

John McCain (R) 53%
Hillary (D) 42%

This latest poll was done April 14-16 among 538 likely Democratic voters and 1254 likely voters for the General Election. Of course, this latest poll was done before Obama’s poor performance in Wednesday’s debate, which could reverse this 21% shift in his direction.

By the way, Scott Rasmussen’s latest poll from Pennsylvania puts Obama within a mere 3% of Hillary.

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA – DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 47%
Barack Obama 44%

This poll was done April 17th, after Obama’s poor debate performance, so maybe there is no impact at all.

Posted by Dave at 1:27 pm
Filed under: 2008 President | Comments (93)

93 Responses to “Obama Surges in Indiana”

  1. rdelbov says:

    Now its afternoon in America

  2. Howard Dean says:

    Some of the pollsters need to be ripped in the media until their client base disappears.

    McCain wins IN by double digits in Nov.

  3. Tim says:

    Anyone get the feeling that Senator Clinton has been hurt by going negative?
    She cannot lose this state, and continue. She just can’t do it.

  4. Phil says:

    If Clinton loses NC AND Indiana on the same day it is indeed over for her.

  5. Howard Dean says:

    It will be over for her if she only wins PA by 5 or so.

    SUSA WA

    Obama 53%

    McCain 40%

    I hope they do one more PA poll. They last had her at +16.

  6. rdelbov says:

    Hillary is definetely being hurt by her going negative.

    Yet Obama is also suffering damage. I think turnout will be dampened and look for a Hillary surprise next week

    I did not print as the five page tab stuff the one poll. 19% dems leave for McCain if Obama is the nominee.

    This poll shows an unreal move towards Obama. I personally thinks its oulier as OH and KY show 24 & 43 percent of dems leaving Clinton. This poll for whatever reason seems to have found unusally loyal Obama supporters. There is a word for this and its call Bradley effect

  7. Tina says:

    If Obama wins Indiana and only loses PA by a low single digit margin, coupled with double digit loses by Her Thighness in NC and Oregon – I believe its over with.

    And my prediction of an Obama victory over Her Thighness for the D nomination will be fulfilled – made here over one year ago!!!!

  8. Tina says:

    Ok, the way I see it is as follows:

    Hillary going savage on Obama – hurts her among the Ds. So, the liberals, then say, see negative campaigning does not work.

    However, her attacks on Obama – who could not defend them – and has a glass jaw coupled with a deer in headlight look – hurt him for the General. His unfavorable rates have been at or above 50% for the past month now.

  9. Tina says:

    ***I am not saying that Hillary did anything wrong in her attacks. They are valid.

    As I pointed out here, how effective are they when the following exists:

    One liar is calling the other liar a bigger liar.

  10. Phil says:

    Great news for Obama I’m sorry to say. Knocking her out by May 13th with dual victories in NC & Indiana will enable him to consolidate his base for the entire summer. As bad as the Indiana poll is for Clinton it’s worse news for McCain.

    Those numbers were completely unexpected. Funny, they are at complete odds with the national numbers in both Gallup and Rasmussen today which show Hillary with a mini sufge – within 3 of Obama.

    Can’t say in all my years I’ve ever seen any poll numbers completely change that much by the same polling outfit in such short a time. Incredible.

  11. Daniel G. says:

    Great to have you here Tina,
    I hope Obama can finish of the Clinton Rulers & Dynasty in IN and NC.
    We need desperatly Clinton to go.
    Doesn’t matter in the end if Obama or McCain wins the General but Clinton has to GO.

  12. Phil says:

    The more I think about it, are we sure this second poll is also Survey USA? It looks sort of like a a university or academic poll.

  13. Tina says:

    Daniel, I agree with your last statement about Clinton having to go.

  14. Phil says:

    It matters a great deal if Obama is elected. He’s a commited leftist and the scariest candidate I’ve seen come along in years.

  15. Howard Dean says:

    Doesn’t matter in the end if Obama or McCain wins the General but Clinton has to GO.

    Comment by Daniel G.

    I differ with you on that.

    They are polar opposites.

  16. Anon says:

    I wonder what SUSA did differently to get a 21 point difference in three days time. What happened between April 13-16? Nothing terribly major that I can recall (the debate was held too late to be factored in). As for future polls, the debate could hurt Obama, but it will also hurt Clinton, so its hard to tell how the primaries from here on out could be affected. It would probably lower turnout though.

  17. Daniel G. says:

    Tina, Phil & Howard Dean
    Be honest with yourself. You all want McCain to be President and Bushs failed Policies to continue, don’t you?

    I’m not. I’ll not shut down Americas Future. JFK was my HERO in the 60′s and Barack Obama is my HERO now.

  18. Gary Maxwell says:

    Well I think this may be your answer rdelboy to the puzzling of the Survey USA polls of yesterday. They are shiite! Apparently they dont attempt to norm their polls, even though its known in the industry that is very difficult to reach Republicans. They dont answer, screen calls and are more likely to be out of town during the week and the weekend both.

    Nothing happened to make a 21% swing in three days. Nothing.

    But if you turn the robo caller on and then publish the first 500+ hits, it does tend to make you look like a complete fool when your own polls gyrate like this.

  19. Howard Dean says:

    The Gallup daily tracking poll, taken from Tuesday to Thursday, indicates viewers may have had similar assessments.

    The poll showed Obama with just a 3-point national advantage over Clinton, 47 to 44 percent. A few days ago, Obama had an 11-point lead in the same poll.

    The new poll surveyed 1,231 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, and had a margin of error of 3 points.

    FNC

    There is something DEEPLY wrong with some of these polls.

    You can’t have a 21 pt swing in IN and Obama within 3 in PA and Hillary gaining a HUGE 8pts nationally.

    The Demos favor Hillary big time in PA.

    She has personal family ties there.

    Bill is popular there.

    Endorsed by 100 mayors, Murtha and Rendell.

    Major rural gaffe by Obama.

    Debate debacle by Obama.

    And he closes in IN and PA.

    I’m VERY skeptical.

  20. Howard Dean says:

    Barack Obama is my HERO now.

    Comment by Daniel G.

    Uh, you JUST typed it doesn’t matter.

    Are you confused?

  21. Phil says:

    JFK and Obama in the same sentence? Are you insane?

    JFK cut taxes and believed in a strong national defense. You owe JFK an apology. Obama is as polar opposite as you could get from JFK.

  22. Anon says:

    “They dont answer, screen calls and are more likely to be out of town during the week and the weekend both.”

    I don’t doubt the first two points, but what makes a Republican any more likely to go out during the week and weekend than anyone else?

    Also, have they started calling cell phones for polls yet? I know a lot of younger voters (who don’t have a landline) tend to stay home, but ignore enough of them and the polls have a tendency to be inaccurate as well.

  23. Daniel G. says:

    Phil,
    Well I just have the same opinion about Obama that Caroline Kennedy has.
    Kill me for that if you want.

  24. Randy says:

    obama is the scariest candidate since George McGovern. I’d much rather have Hillary.

  25. Daniel G. says:

    That’s what McCain will do as President:
    1. Continue the “Axis Of Evil”
    2. Continue letting American Jobs be shipped overseas.
    3. Bomb Iran

    DOES HE EVEN KNOW WHAT HEALTH CARE IS?

  26. Howard Dean says:

    Even if the Supers commit to a candidate today, they don’t actually vote until the convention.

    So, even if Obama reaches the 2,025 mark, it’s not done until Aug.

    If a new scandal breaks in July or early Aug, they could switch to Hillary.

    This should keep her in.

    Very interesting.

  27. Howard Dean says:

    DOES HE EVEN KNOW WHAT HEALTH CARE IS?

    Comment by Daniel G. —

    Do you know what “it doesn’t matter” means?

    You wrote that.

    BTW, it is sad that you’re waiting around for government to take care of you.

    My God, you live in America.

  28. Anon says:

    “If a new scandal breaks in July or early Aug, they could switch to Hillary.”

    Since all but about 2 of Obama’s scandals (the “bitter” one, and Michelle’s “proud now to be an american” thing) were created before this campaign, I find it hard believe they can come up with something new that Obama doesn’t create between now and August (or November, for that matter).

    I mean, some nutty commie who donated $200 for Obama is the most recent thing they could get? And they didn’t even do their research to find out that he probably had more to do with the Clinton’s in the 90′s then Obama around 2000? If there was a bottom to that barrel, I think their digging through the floor.

  29. Gary Maxwell says:

    Howard

    The Gallup poll certainly can be used just like you did, looking a the delta or change over time as I think Gallup knows how to apply a methodology.

    But dont forget that Gallup is doing RV polls. Why this significant? Well who are always the most predictable voters? If you plot a graph, older voters vote in much higher numbers than younger ones. And where is one of the fault lines between Obama and Hill? AGE.

    Hide and watch.

  30. Howard Dean says:

    Gary, What do you think the vote margin will be on Tue?

  31. Phil says:

    McCain is going to bomb Iran? Huh

    Continue the Axis of evil? How does he do that troll boy? Oh, you mean he won’t stick his head in the sand while our enemies conspire against us. Yeah, peace in our time Barack will talk to the nuts in Iran. Great, the Iranians will love the photo op.

  32. Howard Dean says:

    Phil, What do you think will happen on Tue?

  33. Zipota says:

    Any poll surge by Barack Obama is a bad news, whether it is for the Democratic primaries or the general election. If Hillary Clinton couldn’t stop Obama in the Democratic primaries for the party’s nomination, how could John McCain stop him in the general? I’m afraid voters will put a somewhat of a radical leftist in the White House to show how dissatisfied they have been with the Bush administration.

  34. Daniel G. says:

    I’ll be enjoying when the GOP years in the WH are finally coming to an end on January 20th 2009.

  35. Gary Maxwell says:

    Well look at what Ras says in the body of his PA report. Hill support is rock solid, Obama’s is a little squishy and then there is a big amount of undecideds. I guess they could all break one way or the other but if not we get back to about what Temple U said the decided were one week ago +9.

    I think the gaffe hurt, the debate hurt more, the whining the last day or so just reinforced that.

    I still am at about +12.

    But I have to hedge by saying, I am continually amazed by what Democrats feel is important and what they focus on. Logic impervious. Its is the one factor that makes me a little cautious.
    If this were a Republican primary and one of the candidates had said what Obama did, I think I could well predict how Republicans would respond. They would gleefully pound the offender at the ballot box.

  36. Phil says:

    Howard, I’m cautiously optimistic that Hillary beats the messiah by 10. In spite of the tightening polls, the demographics are pretty brutal for obama in that state.

    We had the same poll tightening phenom in Texas with Obama actually eeking ahead by 3 or 4 points followed by a Hillary comeback at the last second. He saturates the airwaves like I’ve never seen before but here people began to get good and sick of the Obama ads. Demographics will hopefully win out, Clinton wins Indiana, and stomps Obama into the ground in Kentucky and West Virginia.

  37. Howard Dean says:

    I too am clinging to 10% for reasons listed in #19.

  38. Howard Dean says:

    Watching Gallup move from +11 to +3 seems entirely logical and expected.

    PA and IN having HUGE swings away from Hillary make NO sense.

    No sense at all.

  39. rdelbov says:

    GM and Howard

    I am still at 10 to 12%. Is it a guess or a gut feel. Yes. There may be a small % of people who such die hard democrats who think”I won’t this to end so lets put Obama over”.

    That could move a % or two. Frankly I hardly ever see real people express(except at blogs & such) that thought.

    Yes that’s apparently is the downside of the SUSA polls. You get messed up on the % for party breakdowns. They force the race/sex/age stuff, but not partisan stuff

  40. michael corleone says:

    Daniel G,

    Here is the link for the suicide hotline:
    http://suicidehotlines.com/national.html

    You may need it on January 20th, 2009.

  41. Bonncaruso says:

    “Watching Gallup move from +11 to +3 seems entirely logical and expected.

    PA and IN having HUGE swings away from Hillary make NO sense.

    No sense at all.”

    Do you live in those states?

  42. Darrell says:

    Breaking News:

    It is just breaking that McCain was a personal friend of Eric Rudolph, the olympic park bomber of 1996. McCain’s campaign admitted that the two are friendly, and in fact, used to live in the same neighborhood. Their kids attended the same school, and they served together on several boards. Particularly interesting is the fact that the bomber recently expressed that he was unrepentant, and wished that he had bombed more places, and that he had not done enough. Knowing this, McCain maintained his friendly releationship with this terrorist.

    Why won’t this story go anywhere in the mainstream media? Because of course it’s actually Obama instead of McCain, and William Ayers instead of Rudolph.

  43. IP727 says:

    JFK was my HERO in the 60’s and Barack Obama is my HERO now.

    Comment by Daniel G.

    Looks like a sad case of arrested developement. JFK wouldn’t give a neo marxist like obammy the time of day.
    You are easily impressed.

  44. Howard Dean says:

    Do you live in those states?

    Comment by Bonncaruso —

    That matters, how?

  45. Howard Dean says:

    Why won’t this story go anywhere in the mainstream media? Because of course it’s actually Obama instead of McCain, and William Ayers instead of Rudolph.

    Comment by Darrell — 4/18/2008 @

    Excellent contrast!

    McCain would be HOUNDED by the msm to resign.

  46. rdelbov says:

    I am still looking for +10 percent Hillary.

    The body blows have been delivered and now its time to close the deal HIl.

  47. steven says:

    there is a new rasmussen poll for colorado showing a toss up, between obama and mccain

  48. Randy says:

    holy crap if Colorado is in play we have a shot at this.

  49. Benjamin says:

    I think this IN poll is not to believe in

    aand its typical for the media when a primary comes near every poll get closer look at Ohio and Texas or NH!!

    After this debate I am more sure than ever that Hillary will win in PA big with over 10% near 60%

  50. Cory says:

    The most likely states to switch columns, from 2004 results, are Iowa (going blue) and New Hampshire (going red).

    Next in line would probably be New Mexico (going blue) and then Colorado (going blue).

    Q. What happens if those states mentioned above do switch, and no other states follow?

    A. 269-269

  51. Cory says:

    Now, I do think it’s likely that either McCain wins PA or Obama wins OH, and that tips the scales.

    But 269-269 is still a very realistic outcome.

  52. rdelbov says:

    I worried about NM and to an extent still am, but look at the SUSA poll for NM. Its the stopped clock syndrome of polls. A poll out of twelve the SUSA gets the break of voters to match the registered voters numbers.

    And McCain is up in NM.

    I personally lots of pluses for McCain in CO that will equal a win for him in November

  53. Benjamin says:

    If Hillary looe FL and NH and will win AR WV NM and NV then we have got a toss up

    or obam wins all kerry states and win in IA NV and NM only

  54. Gary Maxwell says:

    Corey you forgot about the Eastern cong district of Maine going Red, and therefore no tie.

  55. Anon says:

    Benjamin, I don’t know what you’re smoking, but Obama has a MUCH better shot at the Western states then Hillary. She doesn’t have much of a shot at NM or CO. NV, possibly, but I’m not sure.

    The only thing that can truly derail Obama’s chances in the West is putting Mitt Romney under the ticket. Mormons will flock to see this guy as Vice President, even if it isn’t the Presidency.

    Also, I agree, 269-269 is just as plausible as it was 2004 (which was very). Of course, if that happens now, you can say hello to President Obama.

  56. Benjamin says:

    I think Hillary will win NM easy

  57. Gary Maxwell says:

    well since the House would be voting after the delegation are constituted in November, I dont think you know who will control 26 delegations. Know who Stephanie Herseth is? Sole Rep from SD? She pledged last time that she would vote as her state voted. Want to bet on SD going Blue?

    I actually saw an analysis by a Dem who said that he believed even as currently constituted ( pre Nov Election ) that the Dems could only likely get a maximum 25 votes and thus not enough to pick the next President.

  58. Cory says:

    rdelbov:
    According to SUSA, McCain is beating Obama by 6 points in NM. But they have Obama winning NM self-identified Democrats by 64-29.

    You just simply won’t see nearly that many Democratic defectors in November.
    I think it’s pretty clear that Clinton supporters in NM are trying to punish Obama. I suppose Bill Richardson’s role in the campaign has angered some Clinton supporters even more.

    The round of polling 2-3 weeks after Clinton concedes will be very enlightening. At that time we’ll get our first real good look at where states like PA, OH and NM truly stand.

  59. Gary Maxwell says:

    BTW want to drive a prog crazy, if a third of the House refused to meet no quorum is obtained. After March 4th if the House has not picked a President, it says the sitting V/P is the President.

    Hello President Cheney! Maybe the conservatives will get their candidate after all!

  60. Cory says:

    Gary, how likely do you think it is that ME Eastern congressional goes red this time?
    Do we know what the numbers were in ’04?

  61. Gary Maxwell says:

    NM is near a majority as it is Hispanic. Ever been there? So in the Democrat vote column it is an even higher percentage. And you still want to contend that Democrats are not going to desert Obama there? OK if you say so.

    BTW if arguments about states next door are made for Obama whic I hear a lot about Iowa and Michigan and Wisconsin, do you think the same thing is true about McCain? I wonder what States are adjacent to Arizona?

  62. maelstrom says:

    In the history of Indiana, two African-Americans have been elected to Congress. One was the late Julia Carson. The other is her grandson Andre who won her seat in a special election in March.

    Because of Julia Carson and problems in Lake County, IN passed the voter ID law that is being decided by the Supreme Court.

    From the last census (2000), A-A as a percent of IN voting age population is 7.7%. Percent of elected officials .7%. Not much has changed in eight years.

    Obama wins Lake and Marion Counties. HRC wins the rest.

  63. Cory says:

    Sure, McCain will win a higher percentage of Democrats in NM than he does country-wide. But I think he’ll be doing quite well if in November he loses NM Democrats to Obama by 4:1.

    The numbers in the SUSA survey are close to 2:1. That just isn’t happening.

  64. Daniel G. says:

    Gotcha, now here is the Reason why those IN Polls are so different.
    The new Poll was done by Registered Voter Sample while the Poll who had Clinton up big used a Likely Voter Sample.

  65. maelstrom says:

    Gary Maxwell

    Cheney’s term ends January 20 regardless of the vote in November. The March 4th date was changed with the 20th amendment Section 1. Also, by the 20th amendment Section 3., “If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President … If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term …then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President”.

    A simple majority of Senators chooses the VP in case of a tie. This will favor the Democrats. A 2/3 quorum is required. The GOP has some leverage by walking out.

  66. Phil says:

    Unfortunately, they were both likely voter samples Daniel.

  67. maelstrom says:

    If there is a tie and neither the P or VP have been selected by January 20th, the new Speaker of the House probably sitll Nancy Pelosi) will become acting President, until a President is chosen. Because she can not be in two branches of the government, she would have to resign her house seat (which she could re-win in a special election) called by the CA governor to fill her vacancy. If she choses not to resign, the President Pro Temp of the Senate will become acting President. President Pro Temp has become an honorary position going to the senior member of the majority party. 90 year old Byrd would be acting President.

    After him, would come President Bush’s cabinet assuming they haven’t turned in their resignations as is customary with at the end of the term. Rice (if still Secretary of State) would be next in line. If the cabinet positions are vacant, the acting President could nominate someone but that requires a Senate confirmation. The Senate will be busy trying to pick a VP.

  68. Gary Maxwell says:

    Maelstrom

    You think the 12th amendment is modified by the 20th amendment? That could be, I am not a constitutional scholar but my recollection right here is that the 20th was to deal with succession in the incapacity of the President and V/P and to avoid questions about who would run the govt after a sneak attack on the US govt. I dont think the President steps down until a new one is ready to be sworn in. If the House delays, the delay until March 4 leaves Bush in office and then it says Cheney.

    I will look at the 20th when I have a chance this weekend.

  69. rdelbov says:

    Cory

    You have to understand that NM is not your typical state. It has a 50% democratic registration (33% R) and yet Bush won 50% of vote in 2004. For any GOP candidate to win in NM they have to get 25 to 30 % of the demcoratic vote. There tons of conservative democrats in NM in the rural areas of Little Texas in that state.

    Bush certainly got 25% of demo vote in 2000 & 2004 just to get to 50%. So to get 29% in 2008 against Obama and being from next door NM seems reasonable.

  70. Cory says:

    Well, actually, Exit polls showed Bush won 15% of the Democratic vote in NM in 2004. 40% of NM voters were Democrats at that time.
    http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NM/P/00/

    Also, geography isn’t my area of expertise, but I’m pretty sure Bush is from a state that is next door to NM.

  71. lisab says:

    do not forget that mccain has pledged to give rich people huge tax breaks by extending the irresponsible bush tax cuts while at the same time he is moving away from his pledge of balancing the budget…

    it doesn’t look good for mccain, who is showing his age recently

    soooo, how about them redsox?

  72. Gary Maxwell says:

    Its porbably all the ice on your windshield Cory! That whats preventing you from seeing correctly!

  73. Cory says:

    Given the weather here today, it’s possible.

    Of course, despite the ice, (and per usual,) I seem to be seeing things much better than everyone else. So the reasoning doesn’t quite hold up.

  74. rdelbov says:

    Cory

    I think AZ is still next to NM and of course TX is as well. I did not imply that it was not. I merely hoping that McCain would get a little neighborly bounce in the state.

    I also question CNN or this exit poll as President Kerry might too.

    CNN asked the wrong question. In a state with 51% of the voters registering as Democrat they only found 40% of the voters to be democrats? I think not. CNN & the exit poll people needed to ask are you a registered democrat voter?

    Over half the states have some form of registering by party and yet these pollsters seem to ignore this fact.

    The poll I referenced was a poll of registered voters. The voters stated preference by party nearly matched the registered voters for the state.

    The exit poll folks obviousily are trying to deal with one size fit all samples. Lots of those Republicans & independents must be registered democrats.

    Which reminds me I have saved a link to CNN 2002, 2004 and 2006 election sites. You don’t have a 2000 link for CNN do you?

  75. maelstrom says:

    68. Gary. You’re thinking of the 25th. Most of the 12th is still in effect but a section was superseded by the 20th. XX Section 1 says, “The terms of the President and the vice President shall end at noon of the 20th day of January.”

    It was ratified in 1933 and FDR was sworn in for second term in 1937. The idea was to reduce the amount of time an outgoing President was a lame duck.

  76. Gary Maxwell says:

    rdelboy dont forget one important fact. Democrat do not vote in the same numbers as Republicans. But you instincts are right about exit polls as they were the reason all the pundits had those early goofy grins and their faces just got longer and longer and the election night went on. Pure trash. Cant compare any exit poll data with more objective measure like total registrations, as one has known flaws the other is just a fact available for all.

  77. maelstrom says:

    After 9/11, the Continuity in Government Commission was formed “to study and make recommendations for the continuity of our government institutions after a catastrophic attack.” This was to address worst case scenarios like suitcase nukes in DC or planes hitting the capital during a State of the Union address.

    Most of the proposed legislation is stuck in committee. It will be too late to pass it after an attack.

    http://www.continuityofgovernment.org/

  78. Gary Maxwell says:

    I still did not look at them but I think you are right the 25th was succession. Which means that you got a small bit wrong too. I dont think the succession where the President is incapacitated or dead is effective in this case. House must choose or we have a quandry, no one to sign any bills passed. I ma not sure how the Senate gets to a V/P selection if the House does not choose a Pres. Maybe I need to read and think about it a bit more.

    I dont see how the Cabinet or even Speaker gets a chance. Different facts than the 25th I think ( again off memory but this was recent enough for me to have real time memory ).

  79. rdelbov says:

    gary you are correct that generally speaking registered republicans do vote in higher numbers then registered democrats % that is.

    The gap is not so huge, however, to account for the gaps in the CNN numbers. CNN for NM was 40D-35-25, but the voter registration is 50D-33-17. The huge increase in turnout is in self identified idependents.

    There is several states that have excellent turnout numbers by party.

    Voter registration by party means difference things in different states. In NJ 58% of people are not registered D or R, but some states have nearly 90%(like PA) registration by party.

  80. maelstrom says:

    78. Gary

    I’m right. Read the 12th, the 20th, the 35th, and the Presidential Succession Act of 1947. If there is a tie vote, the House and Senate act independently. The possibility exists for a VP an P from different parties.

    http://www.continuityofgovernment.org/pdfs/successionact.pdf

  81. rdelbov says:

    I just hope that during the delay the Presidential Pro-Tem Robert Byrd does not take over.

  82. maelstrom says:

    sorry. that should read 12th, 20th and 25th (not 35th)

  83. maelstrom says:

    81. rdelboy

    This is why the Presidential Succession Act needs to be updated. During the Lincoln assassination, the P, VP and Secretary of State were targeted. At that time, the Secretary of State was next in line.

    The 1947 act introduced the Speaker and the President Pro Temp into the mix. When the R’s controlled the Senate, Strom Thurmond (age 100) was the President pro temp.

    If a double vacancy occurred today, Nancy P would become the President and the office would switch parties without an election. If a successful attack took out the Top 3, a 90 year old man from one of our smaller states would become President (not acting) during a national (and probably international) crisis.

    If the GOP controlled the Senate today, Ted Stevens (Alaska) who will be 85 this year would be 3rd in line for the Presidency.

    This issue should have been addressed in 2002.

  84. maelstrom says:

    The Senate could fix part of this problem with a rules change to the President pro temp selection process.

  85. rdelbov says:

    Its been a courtesy title for years that the senior member(by years served) is elected pro tem.

    Anyone can run for it.

  86. maelstrom says:

    It’s a dangerous custom. Either change the 1947 act, some of which may be unconstitutional, amend the Constitution or select younger President pro temps.

    Another thing that needs to change is the cabinet precedence. The order of succession of Cabinet secretaries is based upon when the post was created. Thus, the Secretary of State is first and the Secretary of Homeland Security is last.

    I would think that the Homeland Security Secretary would be better briefed and prepared to assume the office in a national emergency (i.e, the top four holders dead or incapacitated) and the nation under attack than Energy, Education, Transportation, Veteran’s Affair, Commerce, Interior, Housing, etc.

  87. bio mom says:

    The Pope is 81. Judge Stevens is 85, I believe. Jimmy Carter is very old. The Senate is loaded with people in their 70s and 80s. Byrd is 90 at least. So what? The life expectancy is considerably longer in 2008 than say in 1908 or 1808. Factor that in when judging who is “old”. Also, no one knows how long they will live. A 70 year old who lives until 95 has only lived 70/95 percent of his life. A 40 year old who will die at age 50 has lived 40/50 percent of his life. Who is “older”? And I thought the Dems want to increase the retirement age to save social security? Do I understand that correctly?

  88. maelstrom says:

    87. Bio mom,

    In a national crisis, when the leadership of the US has been eliminated, with a nation under attack, do you want 90 year- old Byrd (or worst case a 100 year-old Strom Thurmond) who are not part of the Executive Branch and not familiar with the command and control functions of the Executive Branch deciding whether to nuke Iran or North Korea or some other piss-pot country and starting World War III?

    If that’s OK with you, than I won’t argue.

  89. maelstrom says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKFKR-jfkhU

    The man who is 3rd in the line for President of United States.

    “Mr. President, Mr. President, incoming….”

  90. My latest projections suggest a small Clinton lead. However, I suspect that there may be quite a few Hillary voters who are too shy to admit that they are supporting her.

    http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/04/19/hillary-clinton-leads-by-403/

  91. rdelbov says:

    Tipster that’s been part of my point all along.

    I see a little undercurrent for Hillary. Could be a wave by election day

  92. bio mom says:

    The age discussion began about 71 year old McCain and the presidency. Since a president must undergo a rigorous campaign for election before he even becomes president, that is not the same as Robert Byrd who is senator for life in the Senate where many such types exist. My point was really that a 71 year old McCain is plenty young enough to be president, a job that has an 8 year time limit. Of course I do not want Robert Byrd as president. Or Ted Stevens. But for that matter I REALLY don’t want Nancy Pelosi there either. And she would come before either of the other two.