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MS: Obama Leads By 14%

Who would have ever guessed we would see so many polls from Mississippi? Yesterday we saw polls from American research Group and Insider Advantage showing Obama leads of 24% and 6% respectively. Today, Scott Rasmussen takes the middle road and claims Barack Obama is ahead by 14%.

PRESIDENT – MISSISSIPPI – DEM PRIMARY
Barack Obama 53%
Hillary 39%

This poll was done March 5th among 816 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 10:41 am
Filed under: 2008 President | Comments (66)

66 Responses to “MS: Obama Leads By 14%”

  1. rdelbov says:

    Sounds about right, but Bill had some great receptions in MS on Friday

  2. Tim says:

    Looks like Obama is about to win in Wyoming.

  3. rdelbov says:

    Won’t it take three days to count the Wyoming vote?

    No actually I think Wyoming is using a variety of what is called the “firehouse” caucus system. Each County has its own caucus site except perhaps the two or three large counties.

    Most democrats are in the two large counties in Wyoming and the southern tier of counties that are called the Union Pacific counties?

  4. Dariel says:

    No surprise with Wyoming or Mississippi – two very “red” states.

  5. Zipota says:

    If it weren’t for the racially charged environment in the Southern Democratic Presidential Primaries or that Barack Obama werent’t running for President, Hillary Clinton would not have to struggle so hard as she is doing right now.

  6. Tim says:

    She’s doing more than struggling. She is losing.

  7. Bryan says:

    Obama has retaken the lead in the Ras tracking poll against McCain 46-45 and Clinton is tied with him 46-46.

  8. Bonncaruso says:

    This margin is more in line with the margin that Obama had in neighboring AL and LA. In AL, his winning margin was 15.39%, in LA it was 21.76%, but his winning percentages were 56.96% and 57.39%, respectively. So, around 55%-56% sounds right for this region. Even handicapping him 5% if there truly is Clinton momentum gives him a win in this state.

    Guys, check out the two newest posts on my blog, here and here.

    Especially the scenario of what HRC must do in order to survive the last 12 contests is sobering.

  9. rdelbov says:

    Obama has the early lead in Wyoming

  10. rdelbov says:

    Bonncaruso

    Great stuff at your site. The graphics are very good and the information is great.

  11. Indy says:

    Yes Zipota,
    If only Obama weren’t running, then Hillary wouldn’t have to struggle so much. :)

  12. Indy says:

    By the way, I voted in the IL-14 election today. I think this one will go to Foster, but it is pretty hard to tell. Turnout was surprisingly high at my precinct. I had to wait in line…. a line of four or five people. However, any line is a big deal in my precinct especially for a Saturday morning.

  13. Indy says:

    Bonncaruso: Great work pulling all of that together. Interesting stuff.

  14. Zipota says:

    Unfortunately, the Democratic Party is growingly more radicalized than we have ever seen in the past, that is enough of a reason that Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) will likely emerge as his party’s presidential nominee. With a strong dissatisfaction with the current GOP administration in the White House, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) still has not galvanized the conservative base even if he were to tell them that Senator Obama is an ultra-communist (which may be true) and he still has not regained many moderate and/or independent voters by telling them that a “President Obama” would take the country to another end of the political direction, which would be far worse and/or scarier than President Bush. If it were a fairy tale, McCain, the David, would have triumphed. But in reality, it is Obama, the Goliath, who would ultimately be victorious, thanks to several controversies of the second term of this Bush administration generated throughout (from Iraq War to immigration reform, then to domestic economy, and so on).

  15. rdelbov says:

    Obama will certainly win the Wyoming caucus today. With only 4 small counties out He leads 4000 votes to 2750 for Hillary

  16. Indy says:

    Bonncaruso: regarding PR in your “look at the last 12 States”

    I don’t think that one will be as strongly Clinton as you might think. Puerto Ricans may be hispanic but they also feel some connection to their African roots. Also, I believe the Governor of P.R. has endorsed Obama.

  17. Tim says:

    ultra-communist?

  18. lisab says:

    luke warm socialist at best

  19. rdelbov says:

    CNN is project a 7 & 4 split in Wyoming for Obama

  20. Howard Dean says:

    O nets 2 delegates.

  21. Harry Goodnight says:

    #14. If Obama is radical, then a majority of American voters are radical. By hugh numbers they support getting out of Iraq, reforming healthcare and changing the tone in Washington. Worse then George Bush? Is that possible? He redefines failed presidency. Obama up in all RCP polls. Go Obama!

  22. Howard Dean says:

    “and changing the tone in Washington.”

    Why do you allow yourself to be duped by platitudes/cliches?

    Rezzzzzzzko.

  23. Tina says:

    Is the civil war still going on in the Drat party?

    I wonder if there will be blood in the streets if Hillary steals it.

    Sharpton is a riot.

  24. Tina says:

    Obama is radical because he is left of center in center/center right country. So, is her Thighness.

  25. rdelbov says:

    Civil War is still on. Hillary is a monster and both are asleep at 3AM.

    Mississippi will probably go for Obama on Tuesday, but after that we can look forward to 5 weeks of fussing in PA.

  26. lisab says:

    what is the aa % in pa?

  27. Tim says:

    Seems like I heard it was about 10%???

  28. harry says:

    There is no civil war. Either candidate will beat McCain. It’s over or under on 350 Dem Electorial votes.

  29. harry says:

    Obama vs McCain. It’s U-tube vs feeding tube.

  30. Tim says:

    harry:
    Just don’t underestimate Senator McCain. He is a formidable candidate.

  31. harry says:

    Personally, I like him. The Republican’s should have backed him in 2000 and we wouldn’t be in this mess. But in 2008, it’s not McCain’s year. Realities and arguments are not on his side. It’s unlikely any Republican could win. The issues just run against them. There is no desire to continue on the same path. The Dems have to blow it. Just by peoples remarks on this site I can tell Republicans agree. Everything has to go well for McCain to win. Economy-,Iraq-,……What favors Republicans? Name a worse year for Republicans?

  32. Joe says:

    GO TARHEELS

  33. lisab says:

    “Name a worse year for Republicans?”

    1976

  34. lisab says:

    “The Dems have to blow it.”

    nope … the electoral map favors the reps (in general)

    if pa or nj goes rep, it is over. losing pa would be an absolute disaster

    unless hillary gracefully bows out, or obama agrees to be vp … it is over for the dems this year.

    if hillary wins pa (and picks up say 20 electoral votes) she will probably stay in and it will be president mccain

  35. harry says:

    NJ and PA have not gone Republican in 20 years. They sure won’t this year. Clinton or Obama will win both states easily. The economy is much worse now then 2004. Iraq is much worse politically then 2004. What on earth makes you think McCain will be even close in either of those state? Bush couldn’t carry either one when he had everything going for him. Republicans got killed in both states in 06. In 1976 it was way better for Republicans. Nixon was gone. Ford was in the White House, McCain is not, the economy was better, and the War was over. How was it worse?

  36. Bitterlaw says:

    “Name a worse year for Republicans?” –

    1856. 1860 was pretty good (except for leading to the outbreak of the Civil War in 1861, which began because of Southern Democrats).

    lisab – I believe that 50% of Philadelphia’s voters are black. I don’t know the percentage for the whole state/ I could look it up or Tim could ask his favorite source, the U.N.

  37. sam says:

    PA – 86% White, 11% Black (2006 census estimate)

  38. maelstrom says:

    McCain is a man’s man and because he is, he will win PA and OH. Obama is a new age touchy feely guy. That works well for a lot of people but not in the neighborhoods I grew up in. Not in the neighborhoods were real work gets done. Not in the neighborhoods where everyone flies the American flag on the 4th.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_A53PAxeR8&feature=user

  39. lisab says:

    “What on earth makes you think McCain will be even close in either of those state?”

    ummmmm … click on the pa and nj state polls on the left. mccain leads obama in both states, which is probably just random variation … but both states are in the margin of error

    “Bush couldn’t carry either one when he had everything going for him.”
    except 120 US soldiers dying every month in iraq

    “In 1976 it was way better for Republicans.”

    no freaking way. even edwards could have won in 1976. it was so bad a southern democrat won the whitehouse

  40. Tim says:

    I do know this. Historically, my Party does seem to have a penchant for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

  41. harry says:

    Foster 54%-46% with 35% counted.

  42. lisab says:

    “I do know this. Historically, my Party does seem to have a penchant for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.”

    ummmm … yeah …

    and if someone doesn’t tell hillary it is over AND soon …

    you will again.

    no way she wins pa by enough to overtake him.

  43. harry says:

    When you see McCain ahead of Obama in certain states this is what it means. Hillary is popular there. That’s all it means. Many of those voters say undecided.Watch the polls change the second the Dem race is decided. The Clinton people will go to Obama.

  44. Tim says:

    harry:
    You have a link on that Illinois race?

  45. rdelbov says:

    I hope that works if from the Chicago Tribune. Old Col. McCormick’s paper. They owned WGN radio and later a TV station by the same name.

    of course the Chicago Tribune was self proclaimed as the “World’s Greatest Newspaper” or WGN.

  46. rdelbov says:

    Fairly certain the GOP was lose this seat tonight. The GOP rode the wrong horse in this one.

  47. harry says:

    It’s on Daily Kos. Foster 53-47 with 88% in. Obama invested in this race. It’s big for dems. You can minimize it all you want, but no way it’s good news for Republicans.

  48. rdelbov says:

    Here is a link on the two primaries for house seats in Lousiana (Jindal and Baker)

    http://www400.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=030808

  49. Tim says:

    They just called the race for Foster.

  50. lisab says:

    i just did some checking and by my math … i’m a teacher sooooo … it is probably way off … :)

    but obama needs … carry the 2 … ummm … takaway 6 … ummmm … gosinta 2025 … ummmm …

    about 455 delegates to win the nomination outright. there are only about 600 pledged delegates left he can win.

    uh oh … it is going to be decided by superdelegates

  51. harry says:

    lisab. What’s your point? Obama will have more delegates. It will not be decided by super delegates. Superdelegates will just give the confirming nod to what the voters have said. You may wish for it to go otherwise but it won’t. What would they have to gain by dividing the party, pissing off new voters and blacks? There is no rational argument to do that. Hillary is pushing her electibility but nobody is buying the argument. Not one super moved her way after OH and TX. It’s over. Everybody knows it but the Clinton campaign.

  52. lisab says:

    i agree that obama should be the nominee if he has more pledged delegates … out of fairness

    but that is not the rule …

    and if hillary wins PA by a good margin she won’t drop out

  53. lisab says:

    harry,

    actually you and dariel should fight it out instead of fighting with me :)

    he is like you, but on hillary’s side

  54. harry says:

    lisab. It’s media hype. Buyers remorse, inevitable nominee, ect. The story line crap is crap. It’s about who’s got the voters and who’s left to vote. Obama will likely get more net EV out of MS then Hillary got out of OH. He will get more out of NC then she gets out of PA. She can’t make up the difference. The rest is drama by the media. The voters are not listening to the media. If they were Hillary would have carried WY. He can lose FL and MI by 10 each and he is still way ahead. He can make an equal argument that Hillary can’t win MN,IA,WI,MIssouri, CO.,WA, OR.She keeps moving the goal posts but she’s out of field. The Supers that are not already committed to Hillary, are not pro Hillary or they would have been on the band wagon in the beginning. It’s over…almost.

  55. bio mom says:

    Actually, Pennsylvania was very, very close in the 2004 election. So was New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

  56. Tina says:

    It does not matter – the civil war in the D party will continue when Hillary steals it from Obama, who won more states, has a higher pop. vote (excluding MI), and more pledged delegates.

    He should go third party, and there should be riots in the street.

  57. Harry says:

    Civil War? Were you like a drama major? Atlanta is burning,troops are camped outside Washington, and the rebels control the Mississippi.OK.

  58. Tina says:

    Civil war means an internal matter unique to the party. It has different meanings – including one for general political matters.

  59. lisab says:

    Harry,

    while i personally tend to support your view of the dem match up … Dariel another poster here is just as much pro-hillary as you are pro-Obama. He thinks it is completely within the rules for her to win by super-delegates … and TECHNICALLY it is, or to win by re-running MI and FL, or by just seating them as is.

    soooo, keep up the good fight, but i am not your enemy on this one …

    hillary supporters are.

  60. Harry says:

    To me it’s not a matter of rules.It’s a matter of reality. Yes, the supers can do as they please. But they would have to have a compelling reason to go against the candidate with the most delegates from the voters. And Hillery does not have a compelling agrument. It’s about the same as saying, ” I Hillary am the nominee, therefore Mr. Obama can’t be, inspite of what the voters say.” It’s quite comical. Every delegate will think of the consequences of not making Obama the nominee, if he has the most elected delegates. It has to be a most compelling reason. And there is none. I do understand what you are saying. Look, Hillary’s people will get over it, because Obama’s out scored her, Obama people will not get over it and every Super D knows it.The unpledged Supers are not pro Clinton, or they would have been on the record long ago, in the inevitable nominee days.

  61. Tim says:

    Were I Howard Dean, I would personally contact the uncommitted Super Delegates, and ask them to go ahead and commit, publicly. They do not need to wait until the Convention. If they wait until the Convention, and they pick the person with the least delegates, then it will look like a theft.

    Actually, it would be a theft.

  62. Tim says:

    Harry:
    It’s simple. If Senator Obbama can get 45% of the Super Delegates, then he is the nominee.

    And, before the next Presidential Election, the DNC needs to change those damn rules!

  63. Tim says:

    make that Obama

  64. rdelbov says:

    Oh I yearn for a simple edit option for our posts, but i guess Hedgehog is forever.