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NH: Obama Surges Ahead Of Hillary

The polls from New Hampshire are pouring in and a new one from Scott Rasmussen taken entirely after the Iowa Caucus gives Barack Obama a double-digit lead over Hillary and McCain holding a 5% lead over Romney.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY
Obama 37%
Hillary 27%
Edwards 19%
Richardson 8%
Kucinich 3%
Gravel 1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY
McCain 31%
Romney 26%
Paul 14%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 8%
Thompson 5%

This poll was done January 4th among 510 likely voters. On the flip side, the latest edition of the Suffolk University tracking poll shows Mitt Romney ahead of John McCain while Hillary’s lead dropping from 12% to 7%.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 36%
Obama 29%
Edwards 13%
Richardson 4%
Kucinich 1%
Biden 1%
Gravel 1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY
Romney 30%
McCain 26%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 11%
Paul 8%
Thompson 2%
Hunter 1%

This edition of the poll covers January 3-4 among 500 likely voters in each party.

This morning’s edition of his tracking poll from Democrat John Zogby.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 32%
Obama 28%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 7%
Kucinich 3%
Biden 2%
Dodd 1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY
McCain 32%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 9%
Paul 7%
Thompson 3%
Hunter <1%

This edition shows both Romney and Obama gaining on the leader from yesterday and was done January 1-4 among 887 likely Republican primary voters and 893 likely Democratic primary voters.

Posted by Dave at 11:44 am
Filed under: Election 2008 - Polls | Comments (32)

32 Responses to “NH: Obama Surges Ahead Of Hillary”

  1. Darrell says:

    First

  2. greg says:

    I like these polls. They show that Tax-Hike-Mike could come in 5th! That would be great. Also, the first one shows Thompson surging. Yeah, I know, fat chance. I’m beginning to wonder if the Republicans and Democrats both nominate left-wingers, who who the conservative independent will be in the general. I hope that it is a good one and not a kook.

  3. Jake says:

    This is looking really frightening for Clinton. This guy is beginning to look like a movement of some kind. She must try to hurt him tonight. Either that, or switch to the Rudy strategy and wait til Feb 5 and hope that the crush has worn off. I expect Edwards to get desparate tonight too.

    Unless something happens in the debate tonight, I think Obama is about to mop these people up in both NH and SC.

  4. Jake says:

    It could be embarrassing.

  5. Nadeem says:

    This is troublesome for Hillary. Obama represents the kind of change that the democratic party has been fighting for for 40 years.

    Now that it is here, the Clintons look hypocritical fighting against it. They look like the same people who told Dr. King that the country was not ready.

    They appear obsessed with power over principle.

    Going negative only reinforces that image.

    Obama and his message of real change, of a united america across black and white, red states and blue states, man and woman is resonating with Democrats, republicans and indipendants.

    Politicians are easy to stop, movements are not. If this becomes a movement – watch out.

  6. maelstrom says:

    Could ’08 be a repeat of ’00? Dems win the popular vote because of large majorities in blue states and high turn-out for Obama? But GOP wins electoral college?

    Seriously, what ’04 red states does Obama turn blue? Ohio?

    Obama is great candidate for the GOP. His Rezko ties have not been fully vetted. The investigation in IL is on-going. We’ll have 10 months to learn everything about the guy and get sick of him. Will Hillary use the dirt to save her campaign?

    The only question is who makes the best GOP candidate. It’s not Rudy who has his own ethical bags to carry. I think Romney, McCainbor Huck could carry all the ’04 red states.

  7. Bitterlaw says:

    Nadeem – the message of changing the U.S. to a high tax nation with socialized medicine does not resonate with this American. Obama is a great speaker but telling people “I want your money to give to other people” is not the easiest message to sell.

  8. greg says:

    Obama definitely has a great message and is very appealing for a campaign. If he is elected, however, don’t expect anything to change in Washington. He talks about brining everyone together … and then implementing a left wing agenda. It’s just not going to happen. If this practice actually worked, he could already have implemented it in the Senate.

    That said, Obama definitely has things going for him and Clinton looks like a has been desperately clinging to the past (when will the left start calling her reactionary?). While on the left end of it, Obama appears to have the chance of bringing blacks into the mainstream. Actually, the mainstream that he may usher blacks into is an important one – one of hope and optimism (a trait shared by most Americans) rather than perpetual cynicism and victimhood. It’s almost enough to make me feel sorry for Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson.

    I’m not sure who will win nomination, but I’d have to put it at about 55:45, advantage Obama.

  9. greg says:

    maelstrom, I don’t think that I actually have to say that I don’t agree with your assessment of Tax-Hike-Mike winning the ’04 red states, but I just did.

  10. greg says:

    One other thing: Obama’s strategy looks remarkably similar to Bush’s of ’00. We saw how well Bush ended partisanship.

  11. Dariel says:

    Obama and his message of real change, of a united america across black and white, red states and blue states, man and woman is resonating with Democrats, republicans and indipendants.

    And, just how is he going to do that? We’ve heard all of this before – without the results we had hoped for. Obama is a “rock star” – but can he be a leader for the country? I don’t think so. I am really hoping McCain can pull it off – he’s the only one I see right now that has the experience to lead and can actually work with Democrats very effectively.

    Go McCain!!

  12. JulStol says:

    If Romney is our nominee I will cheerfully vote for the Democrat.

  13. Bitterlaw says:

    JulStol – never vote for a Democrat. . . unless they are running against Satan. In that case, cast a write-in vote for yourself.

  14. lisab says:

    “Obama is a great speaker but telling people “I want your money to give to other people” is not the easiest message to sell.”

    so he won’t say that …

    he’ll say, “this is the greatest country on earth, where no one should have to be without basic health care … where children should not have to huddle around a charcoal heater to keep warm at night and where billions should not be spent funding an illegal war for oil abroad and nothing is spent on social security for our elderly at home.”

  15. lisab says:

    or … in other words … “bend over”

    your taxes are going up … :)

    fortunately i have a government job

  16. maelstrom says:

    Greg

    No one dislikes the Huck more than me but do you really think Red turns to Blue if it’s Huck vs. Obama? Which states switch?

    I’m for McCain but when they the debate on the same stage the age difference will be a big disadvantage for McCain.

    That said, what ’04 red states turn blue? Maybe OH, maybe VA.

    This assumes not spoiler 3rd party or independent candidate.

  17. maelstrom says:

    Latest Rezko story from the Chicago Tribune. Rezko was one of Obama’s largest fund raisers. Obama was the benefactor of sweet heart real estate deal arranged by Rezko.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-rezko_04jan04,1,4840465.story

    Illinois politics are dirty and Obama is part of it.

  18. Todd says:

    I know e dont like ARG…..but I think they may be spot on in nh with their new release. Furthermore, its practically the only really after caucus poll we have.

    ARG GOP NH:

    McCain 38%
    Romney 25%
    Huck 13%

  19. David says:

    …Wow, and i was hoping would get the Democrat nod, because i feel she will be the easiest to beat in the general.

  20. Bonncaruso says:

    Uh, check out those Paul numbers as well, and consider what he will do to the GOP as a third party candidate. Paul will get at least 10% in NH as well, and this is just the beginning, folks.

    The mothership that was in orbit of the planet has now landed! :)

  21. Randy says:

    just right lisab. I went to see Obama when he came to our little iowa town. He talked for almost an hour and it went something like this: ” Hope blah blah blah, change, blah blah hope Bush is stupid blah blah change and hope, caucus for me”
    I can’t remember a stump speech by a pres candidate so free of particulars except “get out of Iraq”
    I read the policy book they handed out and there wasn’t a single number in there except that he was going to eliminate all income tax for “elderly” people making less than 50k.
    Democrats were eating this crap up. They love him

  22. Bonncaruso says:

    No. 6, Maelstrom:

    according to now lots of polling data, Obama would take IA, OH, MO and VA in addition to the ’04 states.

  23. greg says:

    maelstrom, if it just remains a two party race, in addition to the states you listed, I could easily see IA switching and some western states, such as one or more of CO, NM, AZ, NV, and possibly MT. But if Tax-Hike-Mike is the nominee, I really think that there will have to be a conservative in the race, so I expect a good third party candidate to run. If that if an “independent” with some conservative gravitas runs (and not some kook), there could be some real electoral anarchy.

  24. maelstrom says:

    Wit until the dirt comes out. If HRC has it, she’ll use it. If she wants NH, it will break tomorrow.

    If she won’t use it, the GOP will get it out. You can’t swim in Illinois politics w/o getting dirty.

  25. lisab says:

    maelstrom,

    obam has long been accused of getting a sweet real estste deal …

    but it was legal …

    and i hardly think that the clintons can use it after whitewater

  26. Todd says:

    Concord Monitor Poll

    McCain 35
    Romney 29

    UNH Poll

    McCain 33
    Romney 26

  27. Darrell says:

    In case anyone cares, Romney won the Wyoming caucus and now leads the delagate count.

  28. maelstrom says:

    lisab

    There is more than the real estate deal. Rezko and Obama are as intertwined as Gov. B and Rezko. There are also the dealings with Cellini in Springfield.

    HRC won’t use the the real estate deal. It will remind everyone of Whitewater. Novak hinted a couple of week ago that her campaign has it.

    Let’s just wait and see.

  29. Darrell says:

    Giuliani 0
    McCain 3
    Thompson 5
    Romney 20
    Huckabee 17
    Paul 2
    Hunter 1

    There is the current delegate count, not that delegates matter any more.

  30. Tim says:

    I am worried about the electability of both Senators Clinton and Obama. More so, him than her.
    Someone answer these questions for me. Just for starters, which Southern state could he possibly win? And, what of swing states like Missouri, Kentucky, New Mexico, Nevada, and Virginia? Could he really win any of those?

    And, I would really like for John McCain to get the GOP nomination, just in case the GOP wins the Presidency.

    By the way, a badly need win for Governor Romney in Wyoming, today.

  31. Bitterlaw says:

    lisab – #14 – unfortunately, Obama’s gloom and doom exagerations will be boguht by a lot of people. I guess if somebody came up to me and said, “Bitterlaw, would you like a bigger house and all of your benefits paid for by your neighbor instead of being dumb enough to work for what you want?,” the answer would be yes for a lot of people.

  32. greg says:

    Tim: Social conservative populists do not play well in the west. Western conservatives are more in the libertarian Goldwater/Reagan mold. If Tax-Hike-Mike is the nominee, you have no worries. He will probably lose one or more of the western “battleground” states and probably make battleground states out of the others. His barely veiled attacks on Mormons won’t help either.