A lot of people are saying that the Obama canvassers have been by their house at least once if not twice. Worrisome, but I still think VA stays red this year. The GOTV operation by the GOP is very good…canvassing just south of Alexandria City is down to a few small sections, and almost complete….that’s every precinct Mt Vernon north to Alexandria (Old Town)!
I saw nothing for George Allen in ‘06. Combine that with McCain’s natural draw in the Norfolk area (military), and some “hostility” to Obama in the southwest and west, I would be shocked if VA went blue this time. (Unfortunately, Arlington has turned into a mini-Washington DC, so no hope there).
I think this CNU poll is crap, especially when you look at the methodology.
CNN talking about voter fraud and ACORN this morning…
Still making the news…
Joe the Plumber came up and the left-leaning reporter said he was disqualified because he didn’t own a business, etc.
They were interviewing some conservative guy and he replied that it wasn’t the background of the plumber that mattered but the fact that Obama said he would “spread the wealth around”…
In the next week, by far, the states that the McCain Camp is traveling to is Pa., Ohio, and Florida. In addition they will go to New Mexico, Indiana and Virgina each with one stop. But the top three have multi stops.
Can’t believe I’m watching CNN this morning sitting in the hotel but they had a report on Obama’s claim that McCain has no ideas on the economy different than Bush’s…
The conclusion was that he was wrong for making those claims and showed a couple clips of McCain from the debate laying out a couple new policies…
It’s the oldest trick in the Dem playbook (I ought to know): If you can’t stop the message and the message is toxic to you, then slime the messenger and hope that no one pays any attention to the message.
It’s defense. It stops the message from eroding your own supporters.
Here in my conservative part of VA, Obama people have been to my house at least twice. I still think McCain holds VA unless there is something out there that I don’t know about.
The newswires are making a big deal out of Obama going to W. Virgina — which is fine. However they made no mention of McCain traveling the length and breadth of Pa. or New Hampshire or Maine. Typical double standard.
This is why I am just as worried about the Senate as I am about POTUS. I don’t think the R’s will lose 9 seats but I am not 100% certain of that. Perhaps someone can convince me that all is well.
“There has been no real change in the race since yesterday, perhaps not unlike the debate itself. McCain got in some good shots, and handled himself well, but there was no game-changing moment. It is important to note that today’s poll includes only a partial sample gathered after the debate. McCain did well in the debate, perhaps better than in the previous two. But Obama did well, too. This race is resembling an old National Basketball Association game, in the days before the 24-second cshot clock. The burden is really on McCain to score, while Obama is playing like he is running out the clock.”
The daily commentary with the poll states:
“The one-day total showed Obama with a 3.6% advantage over McCain, while the three-day total showed Obama with a 5.0% edge, 48.7 to 43.7% for McCain.”
That small spike occurred yesterday, I think.
Frank
There are still enough undecideds and soft supporters out there to make a differen
Peggy, spent her entire column today absolutely belittling Sarah Palin. It was something you would expect from Maureen Dowd. I guess Peggy is trying to protect her place on the Manhattan coctail circuit. She and Buckley trying to get a seat at the table with the upcoming King Obama regime – or maybe just trying to avoid a tax audit.
#29 Yes, the minitrend seems to be Mac, but it’s too small and too few days to be statistically significant yet. It does confirm that an Obama outlier is on sitting on the track which is what I said yesterday (and you just confirmed).
Remember that Zogby is a dem so I’ll look at his numbers before his commentary.
#31 Peggy and the rest of the NRO crowd have NEVER liked either Mac or Palin, and in many ways are more comforable with an outright socialist like Obama than a reform-GOP ticket.
Got to hand it to McCain in Ohio. He’s hanging in there. With numbers collapsing in a culturally conservative state like Missouri – he’s hanging in there in Ohio. Proud of those Ohio folks.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:12 am
i think during the final week of the election weekend these pollsters will really change there methodology to make sure they dont look wild, i think missouri will go to mccain
You should do a front page article on Rightpundits.com on the polls for this election cycle. I have some pull over there and could arrange that. Tina and Bryan Mac are contributors. I was once the pol editor but time did not permit me to keep that responsibility. Anyway, that site is getting a lot of pub and was recently mentioned on Fox News.
This is what is pissing people off. They are playing with fire.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:22 am
TAX
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:22 am
#50 Absolutely. The decrease in the LIBOR delta is really good news.
As for some of these polls, I have a hypothesis:
There is a LOT of indignation and outright anger out there. People are ticked off that they think their pockets have just been picked by crooks in DC and Wall Street over the credit crisis.
Guess what? They’re right.
The problem is that Obama is an intrinsic part of the nest of theives that helped do it. Right now with Bush in the whitehouse a lot of these angry voters will not willingly poll for McCain….but they AREN’T polling for Obama. In the end, that tells me if they push the lever at all, they will push it for McCain.
According to a Politico/Insider Advantage poll released today, in Ohio’s Franklin County, the state’s second-most populous county after Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, Obama leads by a tiny 45-40 percent margin. Kerry carried Franklin County 55-44 percent in 2004.
Um… if Obama cannot crush in that county, how can he possibly win Ohio?
Comment by Llarry from Longview — October 17, 2008 @ 9:26 am
Ive been away a few days-
Isnt this Gallup poll huge news????
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:30 am
Franklin county is a huge problem for Obama. It lies dead center in the state and is bascially comprised of conservative dems and conservative Reps depending upon where you live. Not a good combo for O. He should not worry however, with all the fraudulent voting that is already happening in OH, BO will probably take OH.
2 years from now, I will go to jail for typing the above.
Has anyone really seen a poll that has O ahead by only 5 in Cuyahoga County? I think we may be confusing this Cuyahoga with Franklin.
I would be absolutely floored if O was only ahead by 5 in Cuyahoga. He is going to get more fraudulent votes just from Acorn alone that should keep him above that mark. Then there is Cleveland.
#77 It was. Battleground is having some MONSTER Obama days that are rolling off and the days rolling on seem to favor Mac. BG has one more monster Obama day left on it.
#85 Probably not that different actually (maybe a slight Mac or Obama lead…perhaps fluctuating around a PUSH). Most of the move seems to be coming from Republicans coming “home” and the party ID returning to something more reasonable…just as MDefl (and I) predicted would happen.
I just cannot envision a rout for anyone with R next to their name in this environment. I am not saying that McCain can’t win – he can but a rout is almost impossible.
Michael Smerconish, a (former I guess) R talk radio guy in Philly just endorsed Obama with all of the usual empty dem talking points. What a sell out.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:44 am
I think MO is still pretty safe for McCain. I live in St. Charles county,it will almost certainly go for McCain. I think O only wins St.Louis county and Independence county. Now, those are the most populated parts of the state, but I think the burbs and rural parts will come out big for McCain. We are the Show Me state and Obama hasn’t shown us anything.
Michael Smerconish, a (former I guess) R talk radio guy in Philly just endorsed Obama with all of the usual empty dem talking points. What a sell out.
Comment by MDefl —
He fears Obama’s flash mobs will shut him down.
In the heart of Philly, I’d fear too.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:45 am
Bryan, Are you seeing anything from Mac on ACORN?
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:46 am
Guys, Franklin county is the Columbus area. If O is only up 5 there, he is toast. Cuyahoga is the Cleveland area, and is huge Dem. Hamilton is Cincy area, and is the most repub leaning, and is the place that put Bush over the top in ‘04 with a huge turnout, which offset fraud and everything else in Cuyahoga.
Still, Franklin Co is an Ohio bellweather Co. If Obama is only up 5 there (and Kerry took it by 11), then Obama is down in Ohio and likely down by high single digits.
This means that Obama may not be ahead nationally after all (gee who’d have thunk it )
I agree it is very doubtful. I am envisioning here in the last few days a flocking to McCain much like the last few days of the Carter/Reagan election. People didn’t warm up to RR until late in the game.
I see the same thing here because Indy’s and very Mod dems plus very Mod R’s will have trouble trusting O and will see him as too much of a chance and too much change. Mac while still an R is change enough with his centrist viewpoints.
Howard, Franklin is home to Ohio State, and the city of Columbus, which leans dem, but many of the suburbs are more R. Alot of educated elites, AA, but also blue collar and young professionals. If O is only up 5 though, he is going down big time.
Speaking of endorsements, what impact, if any, do the folks on this board believe a Colin Powell endorsement of either candidate would have on the election at this point?
Powell is scheduled to appear on Meet the Press on Sunday.
Smerconish turned awhile ago over the Iraq war. Then he grew a beard and became a semi-regular on MSNBC. The result was inevitable. Nothing to see here. Who could possibly care who Smerconish endorses?
Franklin county is the home of Columbus and Ohio State. It is the largest single city in Ohio. Franklin, after, Cayahoga is the most dem. big county in the state. It is not as blue as Cayahoga becacuse it includes most of the surrounding suburbs of Columbus which are more rep.
Basically we are seeing monster numbers from last week rolling off and more pro-Mac numbers rolling on (with a more reasonable but still unbalanced Dem weight)
October 12 51 – 43% Obama +8
October 13 51 – 43% Obama +8
October 14 53 – 40% Obama +13 (sure!)
October 15 51 – 43% Obama +8
October 16 50 – 44% Obama +6
October 17 49 – 45% Obama +4
Huge Obama day, small Mac day rolls off.
But notice the small but significant move toward Mac.
HOWEVER, October 15 must have been a really good Mac day for the number to rise so much. So, sadly, it will roll off tomorrow and the numbers may spread out more.
Remember the smell test, fellow posters, if McCain is tied in Ohio, there is no way he can be behind in Missouri. Rasmussen really ought to re-think how he does state polling. In fact Rasmussen needs to rethink how he does all his polling.
Peggy Noonan, I believe, was in love with Ronald Reagan (not just politically). She hates Bush because of his democracy agenda and I believe because of some sort of snub related to the presidential campaign in 2004. She took a leave from the WSJ to help out and ended up helping with the Pataki campaign. Perhaps the Bush campaign didn’t welcome her help or something. I have no inside knowledge about that. I am just speculating. But she has become quite bitchy about a lot of things. I always thought she was overrated to begin with and don’t read her articles. But nobody is that viscious about another unless they perceive them as some sort of threat. Noonan is part of the past now.
#110 BG now only weights by age, gender and ethnic demographics (they were bullied into dropping the partisan weights). Worse they were bullied into (by Nate Silver and his crowd) using US Census figure rather than past turnout models for these weights.
All of which means that now BG oversamples liberals.
I don’t know if you remember, but back around the Mac days when he was ahead in many polls and his bounce was underway, Nate changed his model.
Let me explain. He had created a very elaborate model of convention bounces with a very sophisticated chart showing how the bounces would work. He discounted numbers for the bounce based on his model. (I think that is was about 2% for around 5 days or so.)
Well, this caused Obama’s numbers to be problematic around September 1st. If you remember, he did have a bounce, but it was negated to some extent by Palin.
Most of the commentors on his site were asking him to discount this model.
So he did and Obama went into the lead again.
Of course, Mac did finally pull ahead during his bounce but they are so gleeful now because they have him winning with +350 EV.
I want them to roll in it for awhile. Their site was quite interesting until the convention. Now it is nutty.
Polaris, sometime between 9/9 and 9/16, Battleground monkeyed around with their model again (I mentioned last night that the latest table was +4 Dem). So it isn’t necessarily true that a big Mac day will be rolling off; it may be the day they lowered the spread. I also noted that they lowered the rural sample by 5% to only 16% overall and raised the total West/Northeast sample by 3% to 36% overall.
Last night I typed that the polls would move a point or 2 in BO’s direction after some tightening. I expected that.
They will tighten again next week and some of the polling firms will begin to wonder if they should start using weights that are more representative of history. None will use the weights that Polaris sites but they will begin to publish results that are not Dem +9.
I don’t know why but after reading the WSJ article, I am quite nervous this morning. It is not as if I did not know all of the things they pointed out in the commentary already. Seeing it in hard print scared me, I guess. Anyway, the Fairness Doctrine would wind up in the lap of The Supreme Court.
Don’t expect a lot of movement in the polls over the next week or so. Obama’s ad blitz nationally with no answer from Mac assures that Obama’s numbers stay where they are.
It was frank that was talking about a Big Mac day. I agree with you. BG is messing with their model.
Shameful.
That said, what I said about big Obama days rolling off remains true.
MDefl,
You are correct that there will be statistical noise (and thus bumps going the other way), but the trend in the polls is clear: Mac has the momentum
Of course quite honestly a lot of this is phoney momentum. Mac was never really that far behind (if behind at all…something that everyone knows here I never bought into) in the first place! You had some badly done (and IMHO dishonestly done) polls that only made everyone think so…and now the pollsters are under the gun of an immiment election that’s going to force them to get it right….slowly.
Of course doing this will derail the ‘Obama is inevitable message’ that has been sold until this point.
#131 I disagree with you Phil. I don’t think national ads by themselves at this stage of the game are going to make much difference if the ads are about things that people generally already know.
The pollsters are now going to start (and have started) tweaking their models for a more realistic turnout model and THAT is going to generate apparent Mac momentum.
It is pretty funny out there in Media land today. They are denying that the polls are tightening because of the calendar of the candidates. I don’t know about you but the last time I checked, Pa. and Maine were blue states. Oh I know about Virgina, but a week ago winning Virgina was key to Obama’s path to the white house. I may be from Mars but if McCain holds the red states he wins. If he can eke out a win in Pa. then he is certain to win.
Comment by ice cream man — October 17, 2008 @ 10:25 am
Polaris. I disagree. The pollsters will not come around to “save their reputation”. They are being paid by the left leaning networks and Washington Posts and NYT of the world who have an agenda of electing Barack. They know those same outlets will continue to pay them in the future for results they like so why worry about accuracy?
iS NOT BAD Fraklyn county…. but if undecided are 15% and Dem take 60% like they take in 2004 you have 54 to 46.. that’s not bad for Ohio….
For Polaris and all i have question..
Isnt strange that for example Ras has a national poll showing a close race… and always Ras has States polls no showing this close race and you also has Obama leading in Virginia and Missouri……isnt really strange? How is possible?
MDef,
That artical left out one important item. Guns. They will come after our guns big time and there will be nothing to stop them. It takes years for bad laws to get to SCOTUS so even they won’t be able to stop them.
@137 — Didn’t someone report on here a few days back — and I think that I saw similar comments reported elsewhere as well, not sure — that the Obama campaign has been complaining to the public pollsters about their turnout models, the concern being that wide and unrealistic Dem biases might result in complacency on election day?
Could the obvious tweaking of voter ID in the public polls be, in part, a response to those complaints?
The Obama campaign has decided that rather than answering a simple question from an American citizen, they’d rather launch a massive campaign to attack the average Joe just for asking The One a question.
Joe the Plumber was playing football on his front lawn with his son when Obama came walking down his street, doing door-to-door campaigning. As punishment for asking a question to the One who showed up at his house, he will now be publicly embarrassed and destroyed.
They’ve spent the last 24 hours digging into this man’s life, just for asking The One a question. They have even posted Joe the Plumber’s address on line.
Rather than defend Obama’s comment of Spread the Wealth, the Marxist Thug squad from Chicago has set out to destroy an innocent man just for asking Obama a question.
You’ve heard about ACORN and the massive vote fraud operation that was partially funded by the Obama campaign? Now, Obama supporters are grabbing mentally retarded people and forcing them to vote for Obama against their will. http://www.walb.com/global/story.asp?s=9191440
There is no doubt that Obama was trained in the art of Chicago politics, and they will stop at nothing to take this election.
If you ask Obama a question he doesn’t like, you will be destroyed. Be afraid.
Comment by Michael T — October 17, 2008 @ 10:33 am
The wine/hotline poll never had Mac ahead, even when he was leading in every other poll after the convention. I have also never seen any internals on that poll. Has anyone?
#137 Pollsters (most of them anyway) are fundamentally mercs and they do have reputations to maintain. The pollsters may be willing to sell news their clients (generally the MSM) wants to hear, but ultimately most of them won’t commit Hari-Kari for the sake of the “One”. That’s why I agree with MDefl and not you about how the polls will look.
#138 Here’s the thing BRUNO. Undecided voters haven’t been swayed by Obama and Obama is terrible about getting those that are undecided to actually pull the lever for him. That’s been true at least in the primary pretty much nationwide.
As for the state polls, for whatever reason (there are lots of hypothesis), the empirical fact is that state polling numbers lag national polling numbers by about a week. Thus it’s quite possible for Ras to come out with state numbers that are inconsistant with his national number.
Lets see….Rasmussen out with CO and NV today. CO first…
on 10/5 Rasmussen said CO was 51/45 for Senator Government…
that same day their nat’l numbers were 51/44 for Senator Government.
Today, the national number from Ras is 50/46 for Senator Government. I would estimate then, that today should show CO 51/47 or 50/46 depending on rounding.
For NV, it was 51/47 for Sen. Govt. on 10/2 and that day also showed national numbers of 51/44, so I predict NV today should be within the margin of error, slight chance of a tie, but more likely 49/48 for Senator Goverment, plus or minus a point for rounding.
Joe Biden says it is all about one 3 letter word: JOBS.. I am so ashamed to be from Delaware. How can that doofus be our senator much less the vice president?
#142 Keith, I wouldn’t be at all suprised if that was part of it as well. However ultimately no pollster wants to look like Zogby in 2004. That costs you credibility as a pollster and that costs you business.
BTW I really loved the Al Smith dinner last night. I wish the tone of the campaign had been like the one we saw last night. I think it would have been a fun campaign if it had.
I got a glimpse of the McCain from 2000 that I admired but something tells me he’ll be taking that mask off and putting on the tough guy mask again.
Comment by mom in sc — October 17, 2008 @ 10:44 am
I still think that CO leading indicator is polling for the Affirmative Action referndum. When it is 63-21 against AA (and you don’t need much of an imagination to determine how the 16% undecideds are going to break) then I just can’t reconcile Obama being ahead in CO. The numbers came from a poll that Tina linked a few days back.
Comment by knova_red — October 17, 2008 @ 10:44 am
151 -P: Thx. And Zogby’s strict adherence to a D+2 weighting reflects, I guess, that he learned his lesson (the hard way). What’s your take on the quality of Zogby’s national polling thus far during this cycle? I believe you’ve commented on this previously, but a bit of a refresher would be appreciated.
154 – now drudge has linked a pdf of the ap/yahoo poll
Comment by mom in sc — October 17, 2008 @ 10:46 am
Fox News just had a wrinkle that I hadn’t thought of in this election cycle. They had the fellow from ETWN (Catholic Network) on. I don’t want of offend the ears of the non-believers but he talked about the “Bishop Eruption” going on.
The heart of it is this, the Catholic hierarchy has finally got it into their heads what a dem. supermajority would mean for them and the pro-life movement. One bishop after another in the rust-belt especially are announcing to the faithful that if you don’t vote pro-life than you aren’t faithful. This is unprecidented according to the fellow from ETWN (I am Presbyterian myself). In the past the church turned the other way with pro-choice dems. NOT ANYMORE. The ETWN fellow final words were that he believed that the polls in states with heavy RC populations are going to move pronto.
Polaris, I think they will commit hari kari for “the one” because it won’t be suicide. Gallup may not, but pollsters for the left leaning media will simply say, “oops, we didn’t pick up the Bradley effect or the blatant racism exhibited by Americans in the voting booth. We were lied to”.
You really think a national polling outfit is worried that NBC, CNN, ABC, the Washington Post, etc, isn’t going to pick them up next election??
Now, Mason-Dixon and some of the state polling groups is a different story. However, look for the polling outfits nationally to continue to give the MSM what they want all the way to the end. The MSM realizes that they have to maintain the sense of inevitability for Obama to win. Polling outfits aren’t worried one bit about their reputations. Blame it on “Americans lying to pollsters because of racism” and get another fat contract from the networks next cycle.
#156 Well, Keith, Zogby is still on double secret probabation at least as far as I am concerned, especially with regard to his state (esp Internet Interactive) polling. That along with the fact you have to pay Zogby for his internals still means he doesn’t live up to my standards of ethics (and NCPP standards as well).
Nevertheless, I think Zogby is really trying to get it right this time. His partisan model is actually pretty good this time, but I have doubts about some of the rest of his methedology. I do think that Zogby is trying to reform himself.
1. Fantastic news for MAC that Obama is tanking in Franklin County compared to what Kerry did in 2004!
2. I’m very familiar with Prince William County VA. Obama’s small “lead” in the PWC poll is much, much too small for him to win the state. GWB narrowly carried the state over Kerry in 2004 and the state has had a huge influx of Dem voters since then.
You certain do have a point about MSM-Polls (like ABC, CBS, etc) but even then there needs to be a certain critical mass of polls for what you suggest to work.
If your media poll is 12 points off on the last day of the election, then no one will take your poll seriously for ANYTHING any more. I don’t think ultimately even MSM-Polls can afford that so MSM polls will be dragged kicking and screaming into a more realistic model…and will find the usual suspect of excuses to do so.
-Polaris
P.S. This is especially true if the Obama campaign has quitely contacted the political editorial desks of various MSM outlets and quietly asked them to publish more realistic polls as Keith suggested earlier.
Guys, I traveled from OH, through KY, TN, GA, and FL 2 weeks ago, and back last week. I looked around for signs, bumper stickers, watched local news, and talked to people everywhere I went. The amazing thing I took away from my travels is this…apathy. Seriously, my sense is that very few people give a rip about the election. The MSM has hyped the election so much, mainly because they are in love with Obumbler, but I did not get the vibe from the places I went. Even in Atlanta, not much going on. My observations seem to coincide with debate viewership, as well as so many undecideds in most polls. If O has energized the electorate, why can’t he close the deal? It should be over, and I mean really over. Finally, let me also say that I saw way more Mac stuff out there, especially in FL. I know it’s anecdotal and just one guy’s observations, but I have been following this stuff since 1980. The interest in this election does not rival ‘00 or ‘04. FWIW
#162 Obama hasn’t revealed his full donor list. Because he’s eschewed public financing, he doesn’t have to, but I regard this as unethical (not that this is any suprise when it comes to Obama).
162. Did kb just inadverently publish his real name? Tool.
Comment by maelstrom — October 17, 2008 @ 10:57 am
Chun 153
I agree – I also thought McCain was really funny last night. He had great material and he delivered it well. But I was really surprised that Barack Obama was also funny. I never heard him deliver a joke, and frankly wondered if he could ever be funny.
kb
Comment by Stephen Urgo — October 17, 2008 @ 10:58 am
If AP/YAHOOis right mac wins
Comment by L TePaske — October 17, 2008 @ 10:58 am
Phil,
To add to your point:
Polling orgs are not worried about their reputations in mid October! Anything they report now will be long forgotten (except by me).
Polling orgs were massively wrong at this point in 2000 and 2004.
They’re only worried about their numbers final result.
I agree with you. I have a friend of mine, “David” who recently tranferred from the Minn-StP region for a local Software company who tells me the same. This is a lackluster race, and that means the turnout should model historic rather than ahistoric norms.
Polaris, Doesn’t surprise me. I actually asked people about O whenever I got the chance, and almost everyone said one thing, who is he and what has he done? I got that alot. I also sat at a huge outlet mall south of Atlanta, and watched people coming and going in their cars for probably 2 hrs. There were many AA’s, perhaps 40%, and I saw one O bumper sticker. One! Saw many Mac/Palin. Again, it’s anecdotal, but I just did not see/hear anything that makes me think this election is special.
Old Colin Powell is going to insert himself into this race. He is going on “Meet the Press.” I wouldn’t be surprised if he endorses Obama. Frankly, though, if that is true it comes a day late and a dollar short. National Security and Obama’s lack foreign policy experience aren’t even on the radar screen anymore. The MSM will make much of it, but I don’t believe it will move votes nearly as much as the bishops will.
Finally I find it ironic, that the folks who are deserting McCain are the ones who he thought were his friends — Brooks, Noonan, some NRO folks, and now perhaps Powell.
181. It’s really weird how these RINOs are turning against MAC. At least publically. I mean if Rudy, Romney amd Lieberman support MAC why can these pro-aborts do the same????
as i said- been away a few days. Before i left someone was posting that Fla repubs requested more 150k more absentee ballots than dems.
a- was this true
b- if so, is it significant
I’m guessing the early voting stats are the reason he’s going back to Georgia. West Virginia has shown some polling shifts towards him so that’s understandable. North Dakota and Kentucky I agree he’s got no chance at.
“as i said- been away a few days. Before i left someone was posting that Fla repubs requested more 150k more absentee ballots than dems.
a- was this true
b- if so, is it significant”
A: True
B: Florida has always had a Republican advantage when it comes to absentee voting. But it is a sign that McCain will win the military vote, I think.
DWu, I would normally agree with you and Polaris however, this year we’re talking about a once in a lifetime chance for libs to seize total and complete power. That trumps everything.
I hope you’re right about the “bishop eruption” in the swing states. They could have done this back in 2004 since Kerry claimed to be Catholic, but most of them held off. Neither of the candidates in this race is Catholic.
The official position of the Catholic Church is pro-life, but also anti-war and against the death penalty, so the bishops tend to pick and choose which position they should emphasize depending on where they are. I was horrified to find out that the bishop of Hartford, CT gave money to ACORN!
The EWTN news anchor (Raymond Arroyo) does tend to emphasize the pro-life position, and is conservative on economic issues. He probably got a friendly interview on Fox, since Sean Hannity is a conservative Catholic. What the Bishops will say depends on where they are, since they answer to the Pope, not to EWTN.
lots of reports from VA today…So I will update about the critical tidewater area. The most populous part of the state and home to about 10 military bases. I agree that there is nowhere near the excitement about this race when compared to 2004. Back then there was a constant buzz as you walk the neighborhoods, and people were even making home-made yard signs when they couldn’t find any printed ones. I remember 4 years ago a Kerry supporter making a huge sign that said “help is on the way.” I see none of that this year. There are very few Obama signs, and a lot of McCain/Palin signs by comparison. From everything I am gathering here, expect McCain to do better in this part of the state than Bush did four years ago. He most certainly will do better among the military vote, as Kerry did siphon off some with his background. McCain is a real naval hero, and that will go a long way in this town.
“It’s really weird how these RINOs are turning against MAC”
If by RINO, you mean “intellectual conservative” like David Brooks or Christopher Buckley. They are turned off by Sarah Palin, and I expect they didn’t like McCain all that much in the first place. Probably due to his stances on immigration and the environment.
Conservatives used to act intelligently. Like the first George Bush. Now they try and appeal to “Joe Sixpack” or “Joe the Plumber.” You’d think everybody in America was named Joe.
The guy who runs Electoral Projection pegs the Palin/Couric interviews as the turning point in the race. He is very conservative Christian republican.
Somebody like Kay Bailey Hutchinson or that Carly Fiorina would have been far better than Palin, if McCain really wanted a woman.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 11:34 am
“….except dinosaurs like me.”
LOL, I read them too. But, you’re right, it’s an “older” way to get the news.
They won’t completely die out, because people still want local coverage and info about what events are going on, “Best of” lists and things like that.
What’s disconcerting is the decline in international and even national coverage. Americans are going to become even less aware of the world around them.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 11:38 am
…..if Sarah Palin made half the number of serious gaffes that Biden has, you might have a point.
But she’s been superb in very difficult circumstances (thrust onto the public stage with very little warning). That shows me grace. That shows me leadership. That shows me intelligence.
No, she doesn’t have an east-coast ivy league pedigree.
Good for her!
Comment by Hellbelly — October 17, 2008 @ 11:40 am
The MAC camp would be well advised to continue to hammer Obama on the “Joe the Plumber” tax issues, and to call Obama’s tax policy what it is — socialism.
Aaron, you are right that these folks are “intellectual conservatives” but the problem is that they have lived in their own ivory towers so long they have lost touch with who and what Americans are. The reason that the reaction to Palin by the average Joe has been so huge is because we recognize that she is not just another Beltway insider who is going to offer us more of the same crap (like Obama, McCain and Biden are). Americans are tired of career politicians and we want to see something fresh. Thus, I think it is time to start pushing for a Constitutional Amendment for Congressional term limits, I think the people are finally ready.
Not much excitment here. I see very few bumper stickers for eather candidate on my daily commute(30min on main freeway). In 2004 there were many more stickers.
Some bad info though. Dem registration now is higher then Rep in Washoe County. This has not been the case for many years.
“Come on, now. Is this the 1st time we’ve ever heard about how the youth vote was finally going to show up?”
No one argues that the youth can win an election on their own. However, if the ages break down as they are in the polls right now, Obama would win.
Almost all poll internals show the 18-29 for Obama by 20 points or more. He runs even in the other demographics except 65+, which he runs almost even.
They don’t need to turn out in much larger numbers to make a difference if they do break for Obama by that much. As long as he holds even in the other demographics. That’s the real key.
Polaris seems to think they will not turn out in similar numbers as 2004. I see no reason to believe this, when their vote as a percentage of the electorate has increased steadily since 2000.
I don’t expect they will turn out in some “massive” way. It’ll probably be similar or slightly more than 2004.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 11:46 am
It’s nice to see the race finally tightening. The last month has been tough to watch. I’m cautiously optimistic that this move is real, but I’m ready for the chance that McCain is receiving an “over sold” bounce. If it holds through Monday, great.
I don’t know how many of you visit RedState, but Erick Erickson says his sources have told him there is definite movement to McCain and it has begun to show up in state polling. Erick may be a partisan, but he’s not a bluffer on things like this.
Not a ton of signs yet. However everyone I speak with seems to be pro PALIN/ Mccain….. She is the headliner here. Even people I KNOW voted for Kerry and Gore say they are voteing McCain. This should equal a high Margin in the District than in recent History.
Comment by John MacHardy — October 17, 2008 @ 11:52 am
AAIT,
The point folks here have been making for weeks/months is that many pollsters have radically changed their polling methods based on a perceived radical change in the elecorate.
See Gallup.
As you admit, you don’t think there will be a radical change in the electorate.
I’m just in Texas and we don’t really have a race here. However, I see far fewer Obama stickers than I saw Kerry stickers in 04. I expect Obama to run better than Kerry here for sure, but as far as all this great enthusiasm for “the one”. It just doesn’t exist in my neck of the woods relative to Kerry in 04. Just not there.
One of the all-time great political books is Hunter Thompson’s “Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ‘72″. Yeah, his politics were basically loathsome, but he was funny and quite insightful.
One of the key points in that book was that McGovern was counting on the youth and minority vote to come out in a huge way “to clear the swine of of Washington.” Keep in mind in ‘72 you had three things indicating that this might indeed occur: 1) first national election where 18 year olds could vote; 2) you had a hyper-politicized electorate – especially amongst the young – turned on by the Vietnam war; and 3) the opponent was the deeply loathed Richard Nixon.
Despite this confluence of factors (arguably greater than we see this year) that tidal wave of youth and minority vote never materialized.
….and its been a sucker bet ever since.
Comment by Hellbelly — October 17, 2008 @ 11:54 am
I forgot to mention Colin Powell. I don’t generally believe endorsements matter that much, but we have to remember the people with whom we are dealing. The media will trumphet this from the highest mountain top for days and days. It will take away from McCain coverage and that will hurt. JMO.
#213 Just as I thought. The numbers are underwhelming and the AA percentage is steadily going down. All this shows is that Obama is a good organizer and gets his core supporters to the polls early if possible…but we already knew that. I wouldn’t worry too much about GA.
#214 Way to misrepresent my position there, tex. First of all, you need to correct for partisan weights on all the other age categories. When you do, things don’t look nearly so rosy for Obama.
Secondly, in terms of relative percentages, the youth vote in 2004 was a huge dissapointment. A lot of the unweighted media polls are depending on a youth turnout that matches the US census (at the insistance of Nate Silver). This almost NEVER happens, and this year will be no exception.
Look the story has been sold that this race is “over”. Youth voters are fickle, so being told that, the young voter will stay home. Bank on it.
I haven’t seen the voye breakdown, but I can almost bet Anthony Kennedy sold out the conservative movement once again. Polaris, this is why so many of us opposed Harriet Miers.
“she is not just another Beltway insider who is going to offer us more of the same crap”
I specifically remember Bush in 2000 saying those types of things. That’s why I voted for him then.
And then he turns out to be horribly incurious. He didn’t want to know about complications or the “nuances” of issues. “Cut the crap out and just decide” is the vibe I get from him.
Sarah Palin seems to be the same way. She thinks that a mom’s “common sense” can solve America’s problems, when the reality is that complex problems require complex solutions.
Ie: McCain’s “spending freeze.” That is impossible. If he froze spending, he would not be able to accomplish even his own goals.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 11:57 am
MAC needs to but one of these 30 minute shows before game 5 of the Worls Series. I say game 5 b/c it will trump Obama’s game 6 and there’s no way in hell the Phillies are going to beat the rays or Red Sox twice. Another World Series blowout!!
162. Did kb just inadverently publish his real name? Tool.
Comment by maelstrom — 10/17/2008 @ 10:57 am
Quick – let’s call Keith Olbermann and tell him that kb secrectly likes McCain. We will know his home address, social security number, medical history and whether his ancestors owned slaves by 3:00 p.m.
Comment by Bitterlaw — October 17, 2008 @ 12:02 pm
It’s all over the news.
So now there’s practically nothing to stop approx 200,000 ACORN votes to count, since each of the 88 counties in Ohio are expected to verify the registrations…I’m sure that’ll happen, especially in Cuyahoga Co.
Ordinary people sometimes have to do spending freezes. Why not Govt? It’s about the only way that you can get entitlement spending under control…and precisely why most Dems hate it. It’s brutal I grant, but the situation is brutal too.
Remember, McGovern was the 3rd string candidate. Nixon made sure he ran against the weakest possible person. This is not the case today.
Like I said, they cannot win an election on their own, but most reports indicate that Obama has a lot of organizational stregnth, especially with social networking.
Polaris, I specifically remember you telling me that Obama’s youth numbers would not match Kerry’s. Obama has much better organization than Kerry did.
I agree that they are fickle. But if Obama cannot get them out, then no one can. Obama is now warning his people to not get complacent.
I agree that they may not increase by too much, but I don’t think there’s any reason for them to decline in percentage. You must have missed where I said that Obama must run even in the other age groups for the youth to make a difference.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:08 pm
MAC should add the issue of voter fraud to his message in Ohio — taxes, bitter clingers and voter fraud.
Rally good and decent Ohioans to reject Obama/ACORN’s attempt to commit massive voter fraud in their state.
In all seriousness, folks, we have a huge problem with Democratic voter fraud in America. As John Fund notes, we’re only seeing the tip of the iceberg.
Hopefully this disenfranchisement of real Ohio voters will stir up enough anger among actual, live voters to get them to the polls to overcome this massive, historical Dem fraud.
so KB’s real name is Stephen Urgo. With that kind of an unusual last name, we should be able to find it on switchboard.com and publish his address here.
#249 No, not yet Mystery. Even with ACORN fraud should only make a difference if the race is close (within a percent or so). Ohio is not going to be that close if I am reading the real trends correctly (and I believe I am).
It might actually turn out to our advantage to have this SCOTUS decision like this. Had it been upheld, then the issue dies out in people’s mind, now there will be greater outrage, and as Polaris said, it might not have mattered much in OH anyway.
“Didnt all the “newspapers†endorse John Kerry too?”
Absolutely not. Bush got a whole bunch of endorsements. Ie: No Texas newspaper endorsed Kerry, except maybe the Corpus Christi one, if I recall. The Austin paper was kinda funny – they basically said they disliked Bush, but endorsed him anyway.
I think Kerry won on total circulation, mainly because of the big names – NY Times, LA Times, etc…
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:11 pm
253. Do people really care about this? When your working 74 hours a week it’s hard for the average person to even pay attention to these things. And if it means working a straight 40 hours a week, then who cares about voter fraud? Americans are getting super lazy.
“Kerry had the best Dem GOTV effort maybe ever — certainly the best in my lifetime.”
If that’s true, it doesn’t say much for Dem GOTV efforts in prior years.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:14 pm
#251
Aaron_In_Texas,
I would argue that “no one can”. Look I remember the 2004 election distinctly. There was real fire in the youth vote that year esp over Iraq (now a dead letter issue). Wall Street while important to the likes of us doesn’t fire up the youth vote. Sorry, AAITX but it doesn’t!
Furthermore, most people on the steet are buying into the “Obama has an overwhelming lead” theory. This hurts the youth vote first and worst.
Ergo, I am expecting a relative turnout in the youth vote to be about the same as historic presidential elections (about 12-15%) or even less. If I am correct (and I have strong political history on my side for this assumption), then Obama goes down in flames on election day.
#267 I would argue that it wasn’t Kerry that got the youth vote out. That happened on it’s own because Iraq resonated so negative with the youth college vote. Kerry was said to be shocked at the youth turnout.
That said, the GOP still turned out more. There is absolutely no evidence that this race is generating even a fraction of the enthusiasm/hate on campus that 2004 did.
Basically 2004, the Dems hit a turnout wall and they STILL couldn’t get elected. Even in 2006 with the GOP down that year and a similiar turnout, the actual partisan mix was still well within historic norms.
Basically those pollsters that are depending on a “Army of Youth” are on crack.
Committing voter fraud where the end result decides who is going to hold the most powerful position on Earth may be kind of important as well. You know, just sayin.
Maybe the little punk won’t laugh as much when he does some jail time for voter fraud. Of course, that would require some law enforcement official to have some guts and prosecute him.
Comment by Bitterlaw — October 17, 2008 @ 12:21 pm
#276 I think so. Hotline has connections with Todd/MSNBC or so I’ve been told.
Our social studies teacher showed me a graph of youth turnout. It showed that Kerry did increase the percentage of young voters. It went from about 35% to 43% from 2000 to 2004. I seriously doubt that Obama will get any more youth to vote than Kerry. Kerry made an incredible push for them.
MD – I may be done with Smerconish for a while. That leaves me a choice of sports talk and Radio Disney on drive to work. High School Musical 3 is coming out so I may go with Disney.
Comment by Bitterlaw — October 17, 2008 @ 12:25 pm
Frank,
What did your social studies teacher define to be a “Youth” voter?
Definitions are critical. I define a “Youth Voter” to be a voter from ages 18-30. Most pollsters do.
However some commentators/Poli-Sci people define the “youth vote” to be 18-40 or 18-50.
As Samuel Clemons (aka Mark Twain) once said, “There are three kinds of lies. Lies, Damn lies, and statistics”
All that said, I agree with the conclusion. The youth vote was super-motivated in 2004 (and 06). I believe we’ve seen it maxxed out. In fact young voters are fickle and that’s going to kill Obama.
The story in 2006 was that a significant portion of social cons stayed home. That was enough to turn congress. Again, they could be a significant factor in this race especially since they are a hard group to capture in polling. See 1980 and 1994.
regarding # 251….Nixon making sure he ran against the Dem’s “third string candidate”
Wow….if Nixon knew he had that sort of power over the Democrats he would never had needed to resort to dirty tricks.
In fact McGovern (who beat both the presumptive front runner “Big” Ed Muskie and former vice president Hubert Humphrey in the primaries) was the one candidate who could have motivated the youth to come out in a big way. Didn’t happen then.
Hasn’t happened since.
Comment by Hellbelly — October 17, 2008 @ 12:28 pm
Bitter,
Smerconish’s turn has pretty much coincided with his relationship with MSNBC. In 12 months, Michael will be back to being a lawyer only. Liberal radio does not sell – anywhere.
” am expecting a relative turnout in the youth vote to be about the same as historic presidential elections (about 12-15%)”
By doing so, you’re ignoring the trends since 2000, especially evident in 2006. Especially if that 15% breaks for Obama stronger than before. In 2000, they broke for Gore by a very small percentage. Kerry lost every other group pretty badly, particularly the 50-64 group.
I find it hard to believe that young people would get so worked up over the primaries and not give a damn about the real election. But that is a possibility.
We care about jobs too. And McCain’s emphasis on taxes doesn’t really affect any young people at all. But your Iraq points are interesting. That is indeed an issue on the back burner now.
I guess we’ll have to see.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:31 pm
Obama has no choice but to continue to control the airways with blanket ads. He has to keep his numbers artificially high in the polls. I like watching tv but detest Obama ads every half hour. Never thought I’d live to see that happen in Texas – not in my worst nightmare.
#287 Just so, and it’s since become something of a political joke. Every four years we are told the youth vote will really make a difference this year.
Every four years those pundits that claim this are wrong.
There is a one word term for a candidate that is depending on an Army of Youth turnout:
For those that maintain it doesn’t make a difference if Obama gets in or not because life will go on…I refer you to the recent Supreme Court decision not to make Ohio account for their voter fraud. If this doesn’t convince everyone that we need a conservative president to appoint more conservative justices’s then I don’t know what kind of argument you need.
“Total Votes Cast 635,798
Black Percentage 35.9%”
—
Black Percentage of the state population 30%
Comment by KnightHawk — October 17, 2008 @ 12:34 pm
#290 This is from R2K, Kos’ favorite pollster. If Obama is down 12 in Texas according to this pollster, you can be sure that he’s down even more….which perfectly corresponds with my own read of Texas (and from what I understand AITX’s read as well).
Obama isn’t going to be competative in Texas and likely loses by double digits easily.
#295 More to the point, the percentage of AA voters in the State’s RVs is about 29%. Basically, it’s working out in early voting like I predicted. Dissapointing numbers AND while an increase in the AA turnout, ultimately not enough of one.
Obama is now running radio ads in PA stating that he and Ayers only worked on education reform together.
If McCain’s focus on Obama’s associations was not working (like the msm and the idiots at NRO would have us believe) then why would “The One” be running these ads?
GA Early Voting Update
Total Votes Cast 635,798
Black Percentage 35.9%
Comment by Brandon
Started at 40%, then 37% now 35.9%.
Tim?
It has no place to go but down.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 12:40 pm
I suspect “Sthpehn Urgo” is not kb’s real name. This was an intentional “slip” to get back at someone. Don’t publish the name and address.
Comment by maelstrom — October 17, 2008 @ 12:40 pm
#303 Obviously he wouldn’t. Ayers, ACORN, and especially Joe the Plumber aka “spread the wealth” are working. The attacks against JtP are going to make the “Spread the Wealth” charge even more potent.
Muskie should have been the candidate in 1972, followed by Humphrey (who probably also would have lost).
Nixon released the Canuck letter and played other dirty tricks to keep him from getting the nomination.
With Muskie taken out, the democrats had a weak field.
Polls throughout that campaign showed McGovern to be weak. He had no establishment support. And then there was the Eagleton shock therapy mess, that made him even weaker.
2008 is a totally different story. Obama has a strong starting point, as no Kerry states seem weak.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:42 pm
I agree with Aaron on at least one thing. At this moment in time, no Kerry states appear to be at risk. Wait another 7 days. That narrative will change.
“Obama isn’t going to be competative in Texas and likely loses by double digits easily.”
I agree with that. Obama never seriously contested Texas, and pulled out weeks ago. I don’t know why he’s even buying ads. Perhaps hoping strong turnout in the already blue areas will help downticket races.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:45 pm
Hah! Of course. Susa is showing a Florida lead for Mac now that they are using the RIGHT turnout model for Florida (GOP+4). Look at the early voters. Mac is getting the early vote in Florida. That’s bad news for Obama because (look at the primaries), Obama relies on the early vote but Mac has an 8 point lead in those that say they’ve already voted! {I am guessing it’s military absentees for the most part}
311-According to the WSJ it appears to be a “legal standing” issue with the court, as in the GOP did not have the legal standing to ask for the injunction. This is truly the ruling of a non-activist court, one that follows the law, not their own opinions.
Comment by knova_red — October 17, 2008 @ 12:48 pm
AF,
I stand corrected. That the whole court went that way shocks me also. Guess we know where Kennedy went. He makes all law these days.
I am still not sold on PA being in play. That is why I was so shocked when Mac pulled resources from MI. If there was any blue state that should be unhappy with Dem government, it is MI. JMO
Don’t worry the MSM will ignore the Survey USA result in Florida. You almost have to laugh. The AP puts out a poll that says that McCain has pulled to even. But you won’t find that until you look into their internals. You will find it on page 6, by the way. But their head line is “McCain sours voters.” What fairness. How balanced!
The last Survey USA poll showed McCain up as well. He’s improved 1 point from that one.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:53 pm
#317
Here is the relevance. A couple of weeks ago when early voting opened up for GA, the state SOS (to meed federal civil rights guidelines) had to report the minority percentages of early voters and a shocking 40% of the early turnout was AA. AA voters represent 29% of RVs in GA and generally vote a bit less than that, so a 40% final number would put the entire state in doubt and sink Chambliss.
What I contested at the time was that we were seeing an organized effort by the Obama people to get the Atlanta AA neighborhoods to vote first and bank those votes (which was a common Obama primary strat btw) and that this didn’t reflect the overwhelming surge that the MSM at the time was trying to make it out to be.
Now we see that the numbers in relation to the voting population of GA is dissapointing (only about 600K so far) AND the AA percentage is rapidly decreasing to RV base levels.
Moral: The AA vote in GA will be up this year (which all of us expect), but not by enough to make a difference in the final analysis. [Which is why you aren't seeing it splashed over the news any more.]
My hunch is that Obama is advertising in red states like Texas because he believes he has already won the election and wants to claim a majority of Americans voted for him.
If the Dems in Texas don’t bother to vote because they know McCain will win, then his GE vote total will be reduced.
Its all perception.
And, of course, if (please!) he doesn’t win, pundits will look at these ad buys mockingly, as they should.
Comment by Desert Hermit — October 17, 2008 @ 12:56 pm
#323 Yes, but that survey was before “Mac went to Washington” and got panned for it. Basically, this poll (as you correctly note) is statistically the same as the one three weeks before even AFTER this huge surge was supposed to have happened for Obama.
And Georgia has gone from double to single digits, with the latest poll showing McCain under 50. Only the 2nd one in months showing that. This one is not likely to flip, but not a great result for McCain.
I still think the election is in VA and CO.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:58 pm
Key stat in the FL SUSA poll:
Among Indy’s Obama only has a 3% lead.
In 2004, Kerry clobbered Bush among Indys by 16%.
As MAC’s base continues to “come home”, MAC’s FL lead should widen significantly.
(BTW – I have a very hard time believing that MAC will only get 80% of FL Repubs. GWB got 93% of FL Repubs in 2004 and they were mad as heck at him. I know b/c I did phone banks to FL residents for weeks for GWB in 2004 and I can’t count the number of Repubs who said they hated Bush and weren’t voting for him again.)
#328 I expect that Mac will win GA by low double-digits or high single digits when all is said and done. However the AA vote will make GA closer than it normally would be. No argument there.
DWu – Obama getting his AA vote out early, MAC wins GA, Chambliss remains at risk, lower that % figure drops better chance Chambliss has. Not good news for Chambliss that Obama may be sending staff back to GA.
Comment by KnightHawk — October 17, 2008 @ 1:02 pm
The Gallup “cover all bases” poll is my favorite of the day.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 1:05 pm
#334 Not necessarily. I read it this way: Obama may not be happy with the early vote turnout numbers and wants to increase them. Obama lives and dies by his early voters.
I posted something about this last night on here but. Expect a large turn out for McCain from Liberty University. We registered over 4,000 people and we have election day off and buses are provided to us for free to ride to the polls. And we are a Christian University and there is quite an excitement about Palin.
-Hotstick03
Comment by Hotstick03 — October 17, 2008 @ 1:06 pm
were in VA btw.
-hotstick03
Comment by Hotstick03 — October 17, 2008 @ 1:06 pm
The Gallup number surprises me. I thought that Obama would go up a couple of points. Listen folks I can almost feel the fear of alot of these talking heads. However, I knew that this was going to happen.
The next shoe to drop is that ABC or someother outfit is going to come out with a poll that shows tightening.
What hurts the economy hurts everybody. I notice in that article it seems to be hurting more of the coastal “elite” schools that tend to offer more free rides.
I’m pretty sure I’ll be working at Starbucks post graduation
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 1:10 pm
Oh yeh, I forgot, the weekend will help with the big O samples.
At most i see obama picking up IA/NM/CO/VA/NV/OH/FL/MO/NC
in order of likelihood.
so if mccain is ahead/even in OH/FL, then Missouri and North Carolina are safer than theyre showing in the polls.
Polaris, the Survey USA numbers are EXACTLY in line with their last poll. McCain gained a point when the sample went from R +2 to +4. The independents split almost to the very number of the last poll. No movement at all in spite of the 5 million a week that messiah has poured into Florida ads.
As I read more about that AP/Yahoo poll, it looks like it is an internet based poll? Any comments?
It was also stated that the AP state polling was showing wider spreads though i could not find them.
Comment by Ice Cream Man — October 17, 2008 @ 1:12 pm
While I work, I have the tv on and the Obama folks are all on the same page saying, “now you have to look at the calendar.” And I want to scream, WHAT ABOUT PA. YOU JERKS. WHAT ABOUT NEW HAMPSHIRE.
#357 Internet polls have to be looked at with suspicion at best because internet polls tend to be self-selecting polls, and that’s a major no-no when doing polling. It’s why Zogby’s Interactive polls are generally considered trash.
People have been asking some about Colorado… I can tell you in my Colorado Springs neighborhood I believe there are 8 signs for McCain to 1 for Obama… I will qualify this by saying this is in Deep Red Colorado Springs, though…
Greetings from Indiana. I live three miles from where Palin will speak today. My wife and daughter are VIP’s today at the Rally. 24K will be there and Palin is creating a buzz. People love this gal in middle America. I think she will bring out a TON of younger conservatives & moms that usually do not get to involved out to vote and think there will be alot of DEMS coming to MAC before it is all said and done.
Saw OBAMA on TV a few minutes ago. He seemed a little more emotional than usual. He came off like an Angry Black Preacher. That attitude will not go well with older undecided voters.
358 – The media have written off PA and NH for Obama long ago.
Comment by KnightHawk — October 17, 2008 @ 1:20 pm
About the OH voter fraud situation, I have a hunch it will spark outrage among R’s (and maybe indies) and this will motivate them to get out and vote. Voters have to be motivated to get out and vote these days and this could spark them to do so.
#355, I think VA is more likely to flip than CO… CO publishes voter registration statistics by party, and there are more reps than indies, and more indies than dems… Any poll with party weighting anywhere close to the actuals shows McCain up… I also think that NV is more likely to flip than CO…
DWu -They will be seating in the first twenty rows in actual seats, I sure they will be standing when the show starts. We have been working volunteer for MAC some.
You have to love the tv networks. They’re scared that the race will be over by dinner time and nobody will watch. As Frasier Crane said to Cliff Clavin “what color is the sky in your world”?
Then again, they did have Kerry running close in Va 4 years ago. IIRC Indiana and KY are two of the first states to close their polls. We will see right away that Mac is running normally in both of them.
#377 – I’ll take anything +50 or more, be great to end the week north of 9000.
Comment by KnightHawk — October 17, 2008 @ 1:38 pm
375. Polaris –
Where do you draw the line regarding these polls? If we did not include partisan polls then 90% of the polls would be eliminated. Right? So which ones would you keeP? Mason-Dixon, S-USA and who else? RAS? No wat, he’s junk too. CNN/Time? also a joke.
I am suggesting that Dave use the same rule that RCP does. Yes most of the polls are junk and partisan, but a few are openly partisan polls (sometimes push polls). PPP is one of these. So is SV. I say those need to be excluded.
The reason RCP isn’t including the Yahoo poll is because it’s partially an internet poll and RCP refuses to accept internet polls which is a policy I generally agree with.
One trip to IN by Palin will undo millions spent by Obama.
It will be her last trip there.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
Obama was just in NH too.
hmmmm
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
Personally, if you endorse the candidate from the other party, you have a significant issue with loyalty. On a gut level I see it nothing more than a play for another cabinet post, maybe defense.
Powell at a minimum should redesignate himself as an independent. Endorsing Obama and staying a GOP member are completely diametrically opposing.
Mac gave Letterman his HIGHEST ratings since 2005.
Palin drawing record crowds.
Palin draws record fund raisins.
Palin’s debate BEAT ALL 3 Obama debates, as far as viewers.
The msm isn’t telling what is happening.
The GOP will FLOOD the polls on Nov 4th
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 2:11 pm
#395 I answered your post in 380. All the polls are pretty much trash, but we should use the same standard that RCP does. No overtly partisan and/or internet polls. That’s all.
“In the polls they’re conducting around the country, and my boss wasn’t able to relay specific numbers, the Obama campaign is very, very worried about how Palin appears to be energizing whole groups of people who don’t typically get energized about politics, precisely because she appeals so strongly to the middle class, as well as women and dissatisfied republicans that stayed home in 2006.
More than that, they don’t know how to guage and predict the support of people typically turned off by politics, but that are enamored with her “up from the bootstraps” appeal.”
“About the OH voter fraud situation, I have a hunch it will spark outrage among R’s (and maybe indies) and this will motivate them to get out and vote. Voters have to be motivated to get out and vote these days and this could spark them to do so.”
YOU HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD. IF THE GOP does not get mad and respond with overwhelming GOTV, then this election is anyone’s game. I for one am super concerned about Dem fraud this time around–I don’t think the structural EV barraiers that favoir McCain are impervious to what is going on out there–and the Supreme Court certainly didn’t help things.
Powell has not yet endorsed. There is speculation he will when he appears on MTP. I suspect he will, otherwise why so up on that show. As I wrote earlier, I don’t think endorsements matter a whole lot. Still, it’s not the endorsement that concerns me, it is the media coverage that will ensue. The orgasm they will have wil dwarf the Mark Foley coverage.
first!
Comment by marco — October 17, 2008 @ 7:57 am
Good morning!
Comment by Rachel — October 17, 2008 @ 7:58 am
What kind of poll conducted in a span of 14 days(Oct 1-14) among 500 registered voters? A poll ran by students in Virgina? Worst poll ever this year.
Comment by Sy — October 17, 2008 @ 8:05 am
#3 Agreed. Notice how they don’t show their work either (the internals) as they are supposed to by NCPP guidelines.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 8:07 am
My goodness over 14 days? I could do that over the phone quicker?
Comment by rdelbov — October 17, 2008 @ 8:14 am
Polaris et al,
A lot of people are saying that the Obama canvassers have been by their house at least once if not twice. Worrisome, but I still think VA stays red this year. The GOTV operation by the GOP is very good…canvassing just south of Alexandria City is down to a few small sections, and almost complete….that’s every precinct Mt Vernon north to Alexandria (Old Town)!
I saw nothing for George Allen in ‘06. Combine that with McCain’s natural draw in the Norfolk area (military), and some “hostility” to Obama in the southwest and west, I would be shocked if VA went blue this time. (Unfortunately, Arlington has turned into a mini-Washington DC, so no hope there).
I think this CNU poll is crap, especially when you look at the methodology.
Comment by AF Rico — October 17, 2008 @ 8:18 am
CNN talking about voter fraud and ACORN this morning…
Still making the news…
Joe the Plumber came up and the left-leaning reporter said he was disqualified because he didn’t own a business, etc.
They were interviewing some conservative guy and he replied that it wasn’t the background of the plumber that mattered but the fact that Obama said he would “spread the wealth around”…
Comment by Hunter — October 17, 2008 @ 8:20 am
In the next week, by far, the states that the McCain Camp is traveling to is Pa., Ohio, and Florida. In addition they will go to New Mexico, Indiana and Virgina each with one stop. But the top three have multi stops.
Comment by dblaikie — October 17, 2008 @ 8:24 am
FWIW…
Can’t believe I’m watching CNN this morning sitting in the hotel but they had a report on Obama’s claim that McCain has no ideas on the economy different than Bush’s…
The conclusion was that he was wrong for making those claims and showed a couple clips of McCain from the debate laying out a couple new policies…
Not much, but it’s something…I guess…
Comment by Hunter — October 17, 2008 @ 8:24 am
Is that Mo poll for real?
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 8:27 am
Hunter,
It’s the oldest trick in the Dem playbook (I ought to know): If you can’t stop the message and the message is toxic to you, then slime the messenger and hope that no one pays any attention to the message.
It’s defense. It stops the message from eroding your own supporters.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 8:32 am
The other thing to remember, folks: the state polls lag the national polls by a week…right?
If so, mid next week states should start trending to Mac.
Roll on.
Comment by AF Rico — October 17, 2008 @ 8:33 am
Another thing, Obama is on a pace to spend at least over 200 million bucks this month. Probably a good bit more. He raised 80 million last month.
Where is the excess money coming from??? Not only does no one know, I haven’t heard another single person even ask the question?
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 8:37 am
Florida is a swing state, Mass is not. Not a good idea to piss off the Ray fans down there…
Comment by Jake Towson — October 17, 2008 @ 8:38 am
Here in my conservative part of VA, Obama people have been to my house at least twice. I still think McCain holds VA unless there is something out there that I don’t know about.
Comment by David — October 17, 2008 @ 8:41 am
#6, good points…
Comment by David — October 17, 2008 @ 8:43 am
WSJ has an article today talking about the wide discrepancy (sp?) in polls:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122420151553142939.html
Comment by Hellbelly — October 17, 2008 @ 8:45 am
“He raised 80 million last month.”
Link?
Comment by Chun — October 17, 2008 @ 8:46 am
fox news channel in hd now on directv
zogby friday
obama 49
mccain 44
Comment by steven — October 17, 2008 @ 8:50 am
#19 Yes, but if you go to Zogby’s site there was a net 0.5% move to Mac last night. You don’t see it because of rounding.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 8:54 am
Unless you are a super liberal, this should scare you to death:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122420205889842989.html?mod=rss_opinion_main
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 8:55 am
Chun=Chum=offal used to lure fish.
Comment by Man Dog — October 17, 2008 @ 8:57 am
I read that MDefl. It scared me to death.
BTW, Peggy Noonan can kiss my ass.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 8:58 am
What did Peggy do? Did she endorse Obama like Michael Smerconish?
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:00 am
The newswires are making a big deal out of Obama going to W. Virgina — which is fine. However they made no mention of McCain traveling the length and breadth of Pa. or New Hampshire or Maine. Typical double standard.
Comment by dblaikie — October 17, 2008 @ 9:01 am
This is why I am just as worried about the Senate as I am about POTUS. I don’t think the R’s will lose 9 seats but I am not 100% certain of that. Perhaps someone can convince me that all is well.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:01 am
#21 I hear you. Hopefully it will sink in. Ultimately I think it will.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:03 am
rasmussen friday tracking
obama 50
mccain 46
obama,mccain tied with men
obama 8 ahead with woman
Comment by steven — October 17, 2008 @ 9:03 am
Polaris,
To quote John Zogby on his commentary:
“There has been no real change in the race since yesterday, perhaps not unlike the debate itself. McCain got in some good shots, and handled himself well, but there was no game-changing moment. It is important to note that today’s poll includes only a partial sample gathered after the debate. McCain did well in the debate, perhaps better than in the previous two. But Obama did well, too. This race is resembling an old National Basketball Association game, in the days before the 24-second cshot clock. The burden is really on McCain to score, while Obama is playing like he is running out the clock.”
The daily commentary with the poll states:
“The one-day total showed Obama with a 3.6% advantage over McCain, while the three-day total showed Obama with a 5.0% edge, 48.7 to 43.7% for McCain.”
That small spike occurred yesterday, I think.
Frank
There are still enough undecideds and soft supporters out there to make a differen
Comment by Frank — October 17, 2008 @ 9:03 am
#28 This is good. Does anyone have the last five days to the decimals (for trends)?
I am heartend by the new Ras number because it shows the narrowing to 4 is not a one-day blip.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:04 am
Peggy, spent her entire column today absolutely belittling Sarah Palin. It was something you would expect from Maureen Dowd. I guess Peggy is trying to protect her place on the Manhattan coctail circuit. She and Buckley trying to get a seat at the table with the upcoming King Obama regime – or maybe just trying to avoid a tax audit.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 9:06 am
Central Florida 7th grader called racist for wearing Palin t-shirt
Last Edited: Friday, 17 Oct 2008, 8:53 AM EDT
FOX
This is the fault of Obama and the media.
Great job, race baiters, fascists and liars.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:06 am
front page of drudge
GALLUP SHOCK: 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS
Comment by GPO — October 17, 2008 @ 9:06 am
#29 Yes, the minitrend seems to be Mac, but it’s too small and too few days to be statistically significant yet. It does confirm that an Obama outlier is on sitting on the track which is what I said yesterday (and you just confirmed).
Remember that Zogby is a dem so I’ll look at his numbers before his commentary.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:08 am
Steven,
Do you have access to the Daily Report that shows the numbers to the nearest hundredth of a percentage point?
If so, would you help me fill in this chart?
October 11 51.90 – 44.56% Obama +7.34%
October 12 51.09 – 45.02% Obama +6.07%
October 13 50.43 – 44.69% Obama +5.74%
October 14 50.23 – 44.60% Obama +5.63%
October 15 49.98 – 44.60% Obama +5.38%
October 16 49.85 – 46.28% Obama +3.67%
October 17 ????
Thanks in advance
Frank
Comment by Frank — October 17, 2008 @ 9:08 am
60 Dems in the Senate and this country will be unreconizable within 2 years. Further, web sites like Dave’s would be shut down.
You think I am kidding?
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:09 am
#31 Peggy and the rest of the NRO crowd have NEVER liked either Mac or Palin, and in many ways are more comforable with an outright socialist like Obama than a reform-GOP ticket.
NRO==Limousine Conservatives
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:09 am
Eas unchanged today at 50 – 46….
Comment by Ice Cream Man — October 17, 2008 @ 9:10 am
Polaris,
I may need to get to work soon.
If somebody has the numbers from Rasmussen, would you fill in my chart for me? I am curious as to whether it is going to close anymore.
Thanks
Frank
Comment by Frank — October 17, 2008 @ 9:10 am
Got to hand it to McCain in Ohio. He’s hanging in there. With numbers collapsing in a culturally conservative state like Missouri – he’s hanging in there in Ohio. Proud of those Ohio folks.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 9:10 am
what is the rasmussen number for those voters who will not change their minds? That had narrowed quickly to a tie the last I heard.
Comment by Darrell — October 17, 2008 @ 9:10 am
dont know where to find them
but without leaners the race is 47-44 obama
Comment by steven — October 17, 2008 @ 9:11 am
Noonan is an absolute disgrace.
We are weeding out the turncoats.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:12 am
i think during the final week of the election weekend these pollsters will really change there methodology to make sure they dont look wild, i think missouri will go to mccain
Comment by steven — October 17, 2008 @ 9:13 am
Peggy wants to keep her spot with the Manhatten social set. Screw her.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:13 am
You think I am kidding?
Comment by MDefl — 10/17/2008 @ 9:09 am
No.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:14 am
His numbers are not collapsing here in Missouri. He has a lot of support. Who knows what the Party ID is for MO for Ras.
Comment by Brin — October 17, 2008 @ 9:14 am
The only pollster showing MO for Obama is Rasmussen.
FWIW.
Comment by sam — October 17, 2008 @ 9:15 am
I’m not buying those RAS MO numbers.
Where the hell is MD?
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:15 am
The LIBOR spreads are starting to decrease. That is good news.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:15 am
Why does anyone trust Rasmussen state polls?
Never shows any internals, always a 1-day poll.
Comment by sam — October 17, 2008 @ 9:16 am
Wasn’t Rasmussen a Republican pollster at one time?
Comment by AF Rico — October 17, 2008 @ 9:17 am
Noonan, Smerconish et al…bandwagon jumpers. True RINO’s in the absolute worse sense of the word.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:18 am
MO will break for Mac, no doubt in my mind living here in STL.
Comment by Brin — October 17, 2008 @ 9:18 am
Obama supporter steals vote from disabled man
posted at 7:52 am on October 17, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
Georgia state officials have begun an investigation into Primus Industries and the alleged voter fraud committed by one or more of its employees.
………..
This election will be literally stolen. The fraud is so rampant it’s unbelievable.
And it’s ALL from Obama’s people.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:19 am
MDefl,
I know you aren’t kidding. You are dead right.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 9:20 am
Polaris,
You should do a front page article on Rightpundits.com on the polls for this election cycle. I have some pull over there and could arrange that. Tina and Bryan Mac are contributors. I was once the pol editor but time did not permit me to keep that responsibility. Anyway, that site is getting a lot of pub and was recently mentioned on Fox News.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:20 am
The treasurer of Obama’s campaign has TX LIENS.
So do his companies!
Where is the media?
This is what is pissing people off. They are playing with fire.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:22 am
TAX
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:22 am
#50 Absolutely. The decrease in the LIBOR delta is really good news.
As for some of these polls, I have a hypothesis:
There is a LOT of indignation and outright anger out there. People are ticked off that they think their pockets have just been picked by crooks in DC and Wall Street over the credit crisis.
Guess what? They’re right.
The problem is that Obama is an intrinsic part of the nest of theives that helped do it. Right now with Bush in the whitehouse a lot of these angry voters will not willingly poll for McCain….but they AREN’T polling for Obama. In the end, that tells me if they push the lever at all, they will push it for McCain.
Just my take.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:23 am
Yesterday ras had certain voters at 41 – 41. Todays out after 9:30…
Comment by Ice Cream Man — October 17, 2008 @ 9:23 am
MDefl,
I’ll keep it in mind.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:25 am
According to a Politico/Insider Advantage poll released today, in Ohio’s Franklin County, the state’s second-most populous county after Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, Obama leads by a tiny 45-40 percent margin. Kerry carried Franklin County 55-44 percent in 2004.
Um… if Obama cannot crush in that county, how can he possibly win Ohio?
Comment by Llarry from Longview — October 17, 2008 @ 9:26 am
Ive been away a few days-
Isnt this Gallup poll huge news????
Mac within MOE in a LV poll.
Comment by GPO — October 17, 2008 @ 9:28 am
GPO, that was yesterday’s news.
It’s a tracking poll.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:30 am
Franklin county is a huge problem for Obama. It lies dead center in the state and is bascially comprised of conservative dems and conservative Reps depending upon where you live. Not a good combo for O. He should not worry however, with all the fraudulent voting that is already happening in OH, BO will probably take OH.
2 years from now, I will go to jail for typing the above.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:30 am
Is Cuyahoga county a blue collar Dem area?
What are the demos there?
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:31 am
Folks
GW/Battleground
Obama 49
McCain 45
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_101708_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
Marv
Comment by Marv — October 17, 2008 @ 9:31 am
MO is weak
brandon do you have the breakdowns for me??
With a high AA vote MO is in danger
Comment by BENNI — October 17, 2008 @ 9:32 am
HD,
Yes, it most definitely is a lib area. It is where Cleveland is located.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:32 am
#63 He can’t. If Obama is only up by 5 in Cuyahuga Co, then he loses Ohio BIG. Cleveland is the heart of the Ohio Dem machine.
If Obama loses Ohio big, he’s not really ahead in the national number.
#64 It is, but we are still in MDefl’s “There is nothing to see here” stage of MSM denial.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:33 am
Cuyahoga County
67% Kerry
32% Bush
That should answer the question
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:33 am
MDEFL, thanks.
I was trying to gauge his support with blue collar Dems.
I hope that poll is accurate.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:34 am
#68 That’s a big move in BG. Some big Obama days are rolling off.
Does anyone care to bet that the Dem oversample is coming down as well?
Didn’t think so….
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:34 am
what was battleground yesterday?
Comment by Darrell — October 17, 2008 @ 9:35 am
MDEFL, Which numbers are right?
He posted this:
Kerry carried Franklin County 55-44 percent in 2004.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:35 am
Was BG +8 yesterday?
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:35 am
HD,
So do I because like I said, if Obama gets Cuyahuga by only five points, he loses Ohio BIG (as in double digits big).
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:36 am
Has anyone really seen a poll that has O ahead by only 5 in Cuyahoga County? I think we may be confusing this Cuyahoga with Franklin.
I would be absolutely floored if O was only ahead by 5 in Cuyahoga. He is going to get more fraudulent votes just from Acorn alone that should keep him above that mark. Then there is Cleveland.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:36 am
#77 It was. Battleground is having some MONSTER Obama days that are rolling off and the days rolling on seem to favor Mac. BG has one more monster Obama day left on it.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:37 am
#77 HD
Yesterday BG was O 50 Mac 44
Marv
Comment by Marv — October 17, 2008 @ 9:38 am
So, is there any chance that the tide completely turns here in the last few days and we see PA flip, IA flip, MN flip and this becomes a Mac route.
I realize that is not in most peoples minds but if the trust isn’t there with Obama then that is a major showstopper for most.
Comment by Brin — October 17, 2008 @ 9:38 am
Again, I think we have confused Cuyahoga with Franklin in OH.
This would be like confusing Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties in PA.
I have been too all of these counties fwiw.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:38 am
#79 So would I. If Obama is up only 5 in Cuyahuga, then it’s likely that Obama is down nationally (let alone Ohio) big, and I don’t believe that.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:39 am
with BG +4 for Senator Government, can you imagine what it would be had they not changed their party ID methodology a few weeks ago?
Comment by Darrell — October 17, 2008 @ 9:39 am
#85 Probably not that different actually (maybe a slight Mac or Obama lead…perhaps fluctuating around a PUSH). Most of the move seems to be coming from Republicans coming “home” and the party ID returning to something more reasonable…just as MDefl (and I) predicted would happen.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:40 am
The poll I posted showing Obama up 5 was in FRANKLIN county … a county that went 55-44 for Kerry.
Comment by Llarry from Longview — October 17, 2008 @ 9:40 am
Yeah, a great drummond type analysis would be welcome over at RP.
Mdelf, the ultimate irony here is a bunch of RINOs like Noonan are jumping of the bandwagon for the ultimate RINO in McCain.
Comment by Bryan McAffee — October 17, 2008 @ 9:41 am
Brin,
I just cannot envision a rout for anyone with R next to their name in this environment. I am not saying that McCain can’t win – he can but a rout is almost impossible.
Michael Smerconish, a (former I guess) R talk radio guy in Philly just endorsed Obama with all of the usual empty dem talking points. What a sell out.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:42 am
Polaris
Correct me if I’m wrong, but Battleground is a D+6 now is it not?
Marv
Comment by Marv — October 17, 2008 @ 9:42 am
What are the demos for Franklin county?
Is it educated elitists or blue collar?
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:44 am
I think MO is still pretty safe for McCain. I live in St. Charles county,it will almost certainly go for McCain. I think O only wins St.Louis county and Independence county. Now, those are the most populated parts of the state, but I think the burbs and rural parts will come out big for McCain. We are the Show Me state and Obama hasn’t shown us anything.
Comment by Bryan McAffee — October 17, 2008 @ 9:44 am
Michael Smerconish, a (former I guess) R talk radio guy in Philly just endorsed Obama with all of the usual empty dem talking points. What a sell out.
Comment by MDefl —
He fears Obama’s flash mobs will shut him down.
In the heart of Philly, I’d fear too.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:45 am
Bryan, Are you seeing anything from Mac on ACORN?
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:46 am
Guys, Franklin county is the Columbus area. If O is only up 5 there, he is toast. Cuyahoga is the Cleveland area, and is huge Dem. Hamilton is Cincy area, and is the most repub leaning, and is the place that put Bush over the top in ‘04 with a huge turnout, which offset fraud and everything else in Cuyahoga.
Comment by eric — October 17, 2008 @ 9:46 am
#87 OK……
Still, Franklin Co is an Ohio bellweather Co. If Obama is only up 5 there (and Kerry took it by 11), then Obama is down in Ohio and likely down by high single digits.
This means that Obama may not be ahead nationally after all (gee who’d have thunk it
)
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:46 am
The DOW is inching it’s way back would be nice to end up green today
Comment by L TePaske — October 17, 2008 @ 9:48 am
I agree it is very doubtful. I am envisioning here in the last few days a flocking to McCain much like the last few days of the Carter/Reagan election. People didn’t warm up to RR until late in the game.
I see the same thing here because Indy’s and very Mod dems plus very Mod R’s will have trouble trusting O and will see him as too much of a chance and too much change. Mac while still an R is change enough with his centrist viewpoints.
Again, unlikely yes.
Comment by Brin — October 17, 2008 @ 9:49 am
Howard, Franklin is home to Ohio State, and the city of Columbus, which leans dem, but many of the suburbs are more R. Alot of educated elites, AA, but also blue collar and young professionals. If O is only up 5 though, he is going down big time.
Comment by eric — October 17, 2008 @ 9:49 am
Speaking of endorsements, what impact, if any, do the folks on this board believe a Colin Powell endorsement of either candidate would have on the election at this point?
Powell is scheduled to appear on Meet the Press on Sunday.
Comment by Keith — October 17, 2008 @ 9:49 am
Relax on Missouri, guys. That state will also be one that comes in late in the night. I don’t think it’s a 6-point lead, there.
Dare I say it? Sure, why not. Missouri is too close to call.
Comment by Tim — October 17, 2008 @ 9:49 am
Smerconish turned awhile ago over the Iraq war. Then he grew a beard and became a semi-regular on MSNBC. The result was inevitable. Nothing to see here. Who could possibly care who Smerconish endorses?
Comment by bio mom — October 17, 2008 @ 9:50 am
Franklin county is the home of Columbus and Ohio State. It is the largest single city in Ohio. Franklin, after, Cayahoga is the most dem. big county in the state. It is not as blue as Cayahoga becacuse it includes most of the surrounding suburbs of Columbus which are more rep.
Comment by dblaikie — October 17, 2008 @ 9:50 am
#36:
Should anything like that ever happen, I’ll man the ramparts with you, Mike.
Comment by Tim — October 17, 2008 @ 9:50 am
Franklin County is basically the heart of where the typical Reagan Democrats live.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 9:50 am
Last three BG numbers:
Today (10/17): 49O-44M
Yesterday (10/16): 50O-44M
Wednesday (10/15): 51O-43M
Basically we are seeing monster numbers from last week rolling off and more pro-Mac numbers rolling on (with a more reasonable but still unbalanced Dem weight)
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:51 am
Battleground #’s:
October 12 51 – 43% Obama +8
October 13 51 – 43% Obama +8
October 14 53 – 40% Obama +13 (sure!)
October 15 51 – 43% Obama +8
October 16 50 – 44% Obama +6
October 17 49 – 45% Obama +4
Huge Obama day, small Mac day rolls off.
But notice the small but significant move toward Mac.
HOWEVER, October 15 must have been a really good Mac day for the number to rise so much. So, sadly, it will roll off tomorrow and the numbers may spread out more.
Frank
Comment by Frank — October 17, 2008 @ 9:51 am
Remember the smell test, fellow posters, if McCain is tied in Ohio, there is no way he can be behind in Missouri. Rasmussen really ought to re-think how he does state polling. In fact Rasmussen needs to rethink how he does all his polling.
Comment by dblaikie — October 17, 2008 @ 9:51 am
I received an e-mail today from the campaign about ACORN, etc. They mostly wanted money though.
Comment by Bryan McAffee — October 17, 2008 @ 9:53 am
sorry to make u repeat, but what weighting is BG using?
Comment by GPO — October 17, 2008 @ 9:54 am
Colin Powell > Joe the Plumber
Comment by Chun — October 17, 2008 @ 9:54 am
Okay, so a few things. Last night’s Rasmussen was a good night for Obama.
The “certain to vote for” is now 43% Obama- 40% McCain.
Three day average to two decimals:
Obama 50.34%
McCain 45.88%
Looks like a good night for Obama.
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 9:54 am
#108 I agree.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 9:55 am
Does anyone have the very detailed numbers for Rasmussen?
Then we can fill in my post # 35.
Please help me out.
Frank
Comment by Frank — October 17, 2008 @ 9:56 am
Peggy Noonan, I believe, was in love with Ronald Reagan (not just politically). She hates Bush because of his democracy agenda and I believe because of some sort of snub related to the presidential campaign in 2004. She took a leave from the WSJ to help out and ended up helping with the Pataki campaign. Perhaps the Bush campaign didn’t welcome her help or something. I have no inside knowledge about that. I am just speculating. But she has become quite bitchy about a lot of things. I always thought she was overrated to begin with and don’t read her articles. But nobody is that viscious about another unless they perceive them as some sort of threat. Noonan is part of the past now.
Comment by bio mom — October 17, 2008 @ 9:58 am
Frank, look at #112.
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 9:58 am
Here is the chart again:
October 11 51.90 – 44.56% Obama +7.34%
October 12 51.09 – 45.02% Obama +6.07%
October 13 50.43 – 44.69% Obama +5.74%
October 14 50.23 – 44.60% Obama +5.63%
October 15 49.98 – 44.60% Obama +5.38%
October 16 49.85 – 46.28% Obama +3.67%
October 17 ????
Frank
Comment by Frank — October 17, 2008 @ 9:58 am
#110 BG now only weights by age, gender and ethnic demographics (they were bullied into dropping the partisan weights). Worse they were bullied into (by Nate Silver and his crowd) using US Census figure rather than past turnout models for these weights.
All of which means that now BG oversamples liberals.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 9:58 am
Polaris,
I hope that Nate Silver gets what he deserves.
I don’t know if you remember, but back around the Mac days when he was ahead in many polls and his bounce was underway, Nate changed his model.
Let me explain. He had created a very elaborate model of convention bounces with a very sophisticated chart showing how the bounces would work. He discounted numbers for the bounce based on his model. (I think that is was about 2% for around 5 days or so.)
Well, this caused Obama’s numbers to be problematic around September 1st. If you remember, he did have a bounce, but it was negated to some extent by Palin.
Most of the commentors on his site were asking him to discount this model.
So he did and Obama went into the lead again.
Of course, Mac did finally pull ahead during his bounce but they are so gleeful now because they have him winning with +350 EV.
I want them to roll in it for awhile. Their site was quite interesting until the convention. Now it is nutty.
Frank
Comment by Frank — October 17, 2008 @ 10:04 am
Polaris, sometime between 9/9 and 9/16, Battleground monkeyed around with their model again (I mentioned last night that the latest table was +4 Dem). So it isn’t necessarily true that a big Mac day will be rolling off; it may be the day they lowered the spread. I also noted that they lowered the rural sample by 5% to only 16% overall and raised the total West/Northeast sample by 3% to 36% overall.
Comment by DrJay — October 17, 2008 @ 10:04 am
Benni, here are the MO numbers:
R’s 92% Republican- 8% Obama
D’s 92% Obama- 7% McCain
I’s 58% Obama- 36% McCain
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 10:06 am
US communists say their time has come
by Paola Messana Paola Messana – Tue Oct 14, 9:58 pm ET
AP
They endorsed Obama.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 10:06 am
Frank,
Nate Silver is a Kossack and has been for years so what you are saying is no suprise to me. He also blew his 2004 predictions big as well.
Why he is worshipped by many pollsters is beyond me.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 10:06 am
Last night I typed that the polls would move a point or 2 in BO’s direction after some tightening. I expected that.
They will tighten again next week and some of the polling firms will begin to wonder if they should start using weights that are more representative of history. None will use the weights that Polaris sites but they will begin to publish results that are not Dem +9.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 10:06 am
October 11 51.90 – 44.56% Obama +7.34%
October 12 51.09 – 45.02% Obama +6.07%
October 13 50.43 – 44.69% Obama +5.74%
October 14 50.23 – 44.60% Obama +5.63%
October 15 49.98 – 44.60% Obama +5.38%
October 16 49.85 – 46.28% Obama +3.67%
October 17 50.34 – 45.88% Obama +4.46%
Let’s just keep it close and tightening and then on Saturday he changes his weighting slightly in Mac’s favor (I hope).
This will cause more tightening.
Gotta teach, bell just rang.
Frank
Comment by Frank — October 17, 2008 @ 10:11 am
#124 MDefl
The polls released so far today show a move toward Mac of .5 in Zogby and 2 points in GW/BG.
Marv
Comment by Marv — October 17, 2008 @ 10:12 am
I don’t know why but after reading the WSJ article, I am quite nervous this morning. It is not as if I did not know all of the things they pointed out in the commentary already. Seeing it in hard print scared me, I guess. Anyway, the Fairness Doctrine would wind up in the lap of The Supreme Court.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 10:13 am
Marv,
Thanks. I usually look to Ras but know his weights are screwy. It is an old habit on my part that I just can’t break.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 10:14 am
RAS will be giving up polls from CO and NV today. I expect him to show Obama up in both by around 6 points.
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 10:16 am
Frodo, saddle the eagle!
Comment by Man Dog — October 17, 2008 @ 10:17 am
Don’t expect a lot of movement in the polls over the next week or so. Obama’s ad blitz nationally with no answer from Mac assures that Obama’s numbers stay where they are.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 10:20 am
DrJay,
It was frank that was talking about a Big Mac day. I agree with you. BG is messing with their model.
Shameful.
That said, what I said about big Obama days rolling off remains true.
MDefl,
You are correct that there will be statistical noise (and thus bumps going the other way), but the trend in the polls is clear: Mac has the momentum
Of course quite honestly a lot of this is phoney momentum. Mac was never really that far behind (if behind at all…something that everyone knows here I never bought into) in the first place! You had some badly done (and IMHO dishonestly done) polls that only made everyone think so…and now the pollsters are under the gun of an immiment election that’s going to force them to get it right….slowly.
Of course doing this will derail the ‘Obama is inevitable message’ that has been sold until this point.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 10:21 am
#131 I disagree with you Phil. I don’t think national ads by themselves at this stage of the game are going to make much difference if the ads are about things that people generally already know.
The pollsters are now going to start (and have started) tweaking their models for a more realistic turnout model and THAT is going to generate apparent Mac momentum.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 10:23 am
#129 Wouldn’t suprise me. Almost no one has polled Co correctly. In addition to that, State polls lag national numbers by about a week.
I expect to see a lot of dismayed trolls starting about tuesday of next week when the next waves of state numbers start rolling in.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 10:24 am
It is pretty funny out there in Media land today. They are denying that the polls are tightening because of the calendar of the candidates. I don’t know about you but the last time I checked, Pa. and Maine were blue states. Oh I know about Virgina, but a week ago winning Virgina was key to Obama’s path to the white house. I may be from Mars but if McCain holds the red states he wins. If he can eke out a win in Pa. then he is certain to win.
Comment by dblaikie — October 17, 2008 @ 10:25 am
MDefl. Which WSJ article? Link?
thanks.
Comment by ice cream man — October 17, 2008 @ 10:25 am
Polaris. I disagree. The pollsters will not come around to “save their reputation”. They are being paid by the left leaning networks and Washington Posts and NYT of the world who have an agenda of electing Barack. They know those same outlets will continue to pay them in the future for results they like so why worry about accuracy?
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 10:25 am
iS NOT BAD Fraklyn county…. but if undecided are 15% and Dem take 60% like they take in 2004 you have 54 to 46.. that’s not bad for Ohio….
For Polaris and all i have question..
Isnt strange that for example Ras has a national poll showing a close race… and always Ras has States polls no showing this close race and you also has Obama leading in Virginia and Missouri……isnt really strange? How is possible?
Comment by BRUNO — October 17, 2008 @ 10:27 am
Hotline: +10 for O
Comment by bio mom — October 17, 2008 @ 10:32 am
#127
MDef,
That artical left out one important item. Guns. They will come after our guns big time and there will be nothing to stop them. It takes years for bad laws to get to SCOTUS so even they won’t be able to stop them.
Comment by RobD — October 17, 2008 @ 10:32 am
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14657.html
Poll: Obama ahead in critical counties
What do you think? I. A. is not so good i poll.. isnt it?
Comment by BRUNO — October 17, 2008 @ 10:33 am
@137 — Didn’t someone report on here a few days back — and I think that I saw similar comments reported elsewhere as well, not sure — that the Obama campaign has been complaining to the public pollsters about their turnout models, the concern being that wide and unrealistic Dem biases might result in complacency on election day?
Could the obvious tweaking of voter ID in the public polls be, in part, a response to those complaints?
Comment by Keith — October 17, 2008 @ 10:33 am
The Obama campaign has decided that rather than answering a simple question from an American citizen, they’d rather launch a massive campaign to attack the average Joe just for asking The One a question.
Joe the Plumber was playing football on his front lawn with his son when Obama came walking down his street, doing door-to-door campaigning. As punishment for asking a question to the One who showed up at his house, he will now be publicly embarrassed and destroyed.
They’ve spent the last 24 hours digging into this man’s life, just for asking The One a question. They have even posted Joe the Plumber’s address on line.
Rather than defend Obama’s comment of Spread the Wealth, the Marxist Thug squad from Chicago has set out to destroy an innocent man just for asking Obama a question.
In addition, the hypocrisy is proving unbelievable. The main line of attack in the papers today was that Joe has a lien on his house. OK. Maybe if the media spent a few minutes vetting the guy actually running for President, they might have found out that the Treasurer of Obama’s campaign has tax liens on his house and business!
http://www.patterico.com/2008/10/16/la-times-joe-the-plumber-has-liens1/http://www.patterico.com/2008/10/16/la-times-joe-the-plumber-has-liens1/
This is Fascism. But it gets worse.
You’ve heard about ACORN and the massive vote fraud operation that was partially funded by the Obama campaign? Now, Obama supporters are grabbing mentally retarded people and forcing them to vote for Obama against their will.
http://www.walb.com/global/story.asp?s=9191440
There is no doubt that Obama was trained in the art of Chicago politics, and they will stop at nothing to take this election.
If you ask Obama a question he doesn’t like, you will be destroyed. Be afraid.
Comment by Michael T — October 17, 2008 @ 10:33 am
The wine/hotline poll never had Mac ahead, even when he was leading in every other poll after the convention. I have also never seen any internals on that poll. Has anyone?
Comment by eric — October 17, 2008 @ 10:34 am
#137 Pollsters (most of them anyway) are fundamentally mercs and they do have reputations to maintain. The pollsters may be willing to sell news their clients (generally the MSM) wants to hear, but ultimately most of them won’t commit Hari-Kari for the sake of the “One”. That’s why I agree with MDefl and not you about how the polls will look.
#138 Here’s the thing BRUNO. Undecided voters haven’t been swayed by Obama and Obama is terrible about getting those that are undecided to actually pull the lever for him. That’s been true at least in the primary pretty much nationwide.
As for the state polls, for whatever reason (there are lots of hypothesis), the empirical fact is that state polling numbers lag national polling numbers by about a week. Thus it’s quite possible for Ras to come out with state numbers that are inconsistant with his national number.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 10:35 am
Good question Bruno. We don’t know as Rasmussen refuses to tell us anything about Party ID weights in any of his state polls.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 10:35 am
Lets see….Rasmussen out with CO and NV today. CO first…
on 10/5 Rasmussen said CO was 51/45 for Senator Government…
that same day their nat’l numbers were 51/44 for Senator Government.
Today, the national number from Ras is 50/46 for Senator Government. I would estimate then, that today should show CO 51/47 or 50/46 depending on rounding.
For NV, it was 51/47 for Sen. Govt. on 10/2 and that day also showed national numbers of 51/44, so I predict NV today should be within the margin of error, slight chance of a tie, but more likely 49/48 for Senator Goverment, plus or minus a point for rounding.
Comment by Darrell — October 17, 2008 @ 10:35 am
I have also never seen any internals on that poll. Has anyone?
Comment by eric
No. And I heard they are somehow affiliated with Chuck Todd/MSNBC
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 10:36 am
#139 Hotline == Outlier. It is a Dem leaning poll. Has been the entire cycle and it has a very small track sample which means high volatility.
-POlaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 10:37 am
Joe Biden says it is all about one 3 letter word: JOBS.. I am so ashamed to be from Delaware. How can that doofus be our senator much less the vice president?
Comment by bio mom — October 17, 2008 @ 10:39 am
#142 Keith, I wouldn’t be at all suprised if that was part of it as well. However ultimately no pollster wants to look like Zogby in 2004. That costs you credibility as a pollster and that costs you business.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 10:39 am
Last nights daily sample in the KOS poll was only Obama +6, the lowest his lead has been in weeks. There has to be some real tightening going on.
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 10:41 am
BTW I really loved the Al Smith dinner last night. I wish the tone of the campaign had been like the one we saw last night. I think it would have been a fun campaign if it had.
I got a glimpse of the McCain from 2000 that I admired but something tells me he’ll be taking that mask off and putting on the tough guy mask again.
Comment by Chun — October 17, 2008 @ 10:43 am
DRUDGE HEADLINE:
AP/YAHOO POLL: OBAMA 44, MCCAIN 42
No other info yet…
Comment by mom in sc — October 17, 2008 @ 10:44 am
I still think that CO leading indicator is polling for the Affirmative Action referndum. When it is 63-21 against AA (and you don’t need much of an imagination to determine how the 16% undecideds are going to break) then I just can’t reconcile Obama being ahead in CO. The numbers came from a poll that Tina linked a few days back.
Comment by knova_red — October 17, 2008 @ 10:44 am
151 -P: Thx. And Zogby’s strict adherence to a D+2 weighting reflects, I guess, that he learned his lesson (the hard way). What’s your take on the quality of Zogby’s national polling thus far during this cycle? I believe you’ve commented on this previously, but a bit of a refresher would be appreciated.
Comment by Keith — October 17, 2008 @ 10:45 am
154 – now drudge has linked a pdf of the ap/yahoo poll
Comment by mom in sc — October 17, 2008 @ 10:46 am
Fox News just had a wrinkle that I hadn’t thought of in this election cycle. They had the fellow from ETWN (Catholic Network) on. I don’t want of offend the ears of the non-believers but he talked about the “Bishop Eruption” going on.
The heart of it is this, the Catholic hierarchy has finally got it into their heads what a dem. supermajority would mean for them and the pro-life movement. One bishop after another in the rust-belt especially are announcing to the faithful that if you don’t vote pro-life than you aren’t faithful. This is unprecidented according to the fellow from ETWN (I am Presbyterian myself). In the past the church turned the other way with pro-choice dems. NOT ANYMORE. The ETWN fellow final words were that he believed that the polls in states with heavy RC populations are going to move pronto.
Comment by dblaikie — October 17, 2008 @ 10:47 am
Polaris, I think they will commit hari kari for “the one” because it won’t be suicide. Gallup may not, but pollsters for the left leaning media will simply say, “oops, we didn’t pick up the Bradley effect or the blatant racism exhibited by Americans in the voting booth. We were lied to”.
You really think a national polling outfit is worried that NBC, CNN, ABC, the Washington Post, etc, isn’t going to pick them up next election??
Now, Mason-Dixon and some of the state polling groups is a different story. However, look for the polling outfits nationally to continue to give the MSM what they want all the way to the end. The MSM realizes that they have to maintain the sense of inevitability for Obama to win. Polling outfits aren’t worried one bit about their reputations. Blame it on “Americans lying to pollsters because of racism” and get another fat contract from the networks next cycle.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 10:48 am
#156 Well, Keith, Zogby is still on double secret probabation at least as far as I am concerned, especially with regard to his state (esp Internet Interactive) polling. That along with the fact you have to pay Zogby for his internals still means he doesn’t live up to my standards of ethics (and NCPP standards as well).
Nevertheless, I think Zogby is really trying to get it right this time. His partisan model is actually pretty good this time, but I have doubts about some of the rest of his methedology. I do think that Zogby is trying to reform himself.
We shall see.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 10:50 am
BRUNO:
Regarding the IA county polling:
1. Fantastic news for MAC that Obama is tanking in Franklin County compared to what Kerry did in 2004!
2. I’m very familiar with Prince William County VA. Obama’s small “lead” in the PWC poll is much, much too small for him to win the state. GWB narrowly carried the state over Kerry in 2004 and the state has had a huge influx of Dem voters since then.
I’m very encouraged by this poll!
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 10:51 am
Phil
On source of campaign funds:
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.php
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.php
kb
Comment by Stephen Urgo — October 17, 2008 @ 10:52 am
AP/YAHOO Poll of 873 Democrats; 650 Republicans shows OBAMA 44%, MCCAIN 42%…
Wow look at that party spread
Comment by Darrell — October 17, 2008 @ 10:53 am
Phil,
You certain do have a point about MSM-Polls (like ABC, CBS, etc) but even then there needs to be a certain critical mass of polls for what you suggest to work.
If your media poll is 12 points off on the last day of the election, then no one will take your poll seriously for ANYTHING any more. I don’t think ultimately even MSM-Polls can afford that so MSM polls will be dragged kicking and screaming into a more realistic model…and will find the usual suspect of excuses to do so.
-Polaris
P.S. This is especially true if the Obama campaign has quitely contacted the political editorial desks of various MSM outlets and quietly asked them to publish more realistic polls as Keith suggested earlier.
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 10:54 am
Guys, I traveled from OH, through KY, TN, GA, and FL 2 weeks ago, and back last week. I looked around for signs, bumper stickers, watched local news, and talked to people everywhere I went. The amazing thing I took away from my travels is this…apathy. Seriously, my sense is that very few people give a rip about the election. The MSM has hyped the election so much, mainly because they are in love with Obumbler, but I did not get the vibe from the places I went. Even in Atlanta, not much going on. My observations seem to coincide with debate viewership, as well as so many undecideds in most polls. If O has energized the electorate, why can’t he close the deal? It should be over, and I mean really over. Finally, let me also say that I saw way more Mac stuff out there, especially in FL. I know it’s anecdotal and just one guy’s observations, but I have been following this stuff since 1980. The interest in this election does not rival ‘00 or ‘04. FWIW
Comment by eric — October 17, 2008 @ 10:54 am
I just read an article in the Los Angeles times – McCain is surging in Florida again! Go McCain, Go!
Comment by John — October 17, 2008 @ 10:56 am
#162 Obama hasn’t revealed his full donor list. Because he’s eschewed public financing, he doesn’t have to, but I regard this as unethical (not that this is any suprise when it comes to Obama).
#163 Do you have a link to that Yahoo poll?
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 10:56 am
162. Did kb just inadverently publish his real name? Tool.
Comment by maelstrom — October 17, 2008 @ 10:57 am
Chun 153
I agree – I also thought McCain was really funny last night. He had great material and he delivered it well. But I was really surprised that Barack Obama was also funny. I never heard him deliver a joke, and frankly wondered if he could ever be funny.
kb
Comment by Stephen Urgo — October 17, 2008 @ 10:58 am
If AP/YAHOOis right mac wins
Comment by L TePaske — October 17, 2008 @ 10:58 am
Phil,
To add to your point:
Polling orgs are not worried about their reputations in mid October! Anything they report now will be long forgotten (except by me).
Polling orgs were massively wrong at this point in 2000 and 2004.
They’re only worried about their numbers final result.
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 10:58 am
Eric,
I agree with you. I have a friend of mine, “David” who recently tranferred from the Minn-StP region for a local Software company who tells me the same. This is a lackluster race, and that means the turnout should model historic rather than ahistoric norms.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 10:58 am
oh my, the secret is out!
kb
Comment by KeyBored — October 17, 2008 @ 10:59 am
How’s Nina tool?
Comment by maelstrom — October 17, 2008 @ 11:01 am
167…its on drudge
Comment by Darrell — October 17, 2008 @ 11:03 am
Just saw on CNN. Obama is sending campaign workers back to Georgia, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Kentucky.
Comment by Chun — October 17, 2008 @ 11:04 am
That AP yahoo poll had a D+13 sample and it was STILL Obama 44/McCain 42???
Check out page 25 of 29… D 40 / R 27 / I 21
Comment by Houston — October 17, 2008 @ 11:04 am
Tools, Yahoo won’t even publish their own poll on their own website. (At least I didn’t see it)
Anyone have a link to the yahoo poll?
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 11:05 am
DWu,
You going to the McCain rally in Prince William Co on Saturday? I got all the e-mails about it, but will be out of town.
Comment by AF Rico — October 17, 2008 @ 11:05 am
Polaris, Doesn’t surprise me. I actually asked people about O whenever I got the chance, and almost everyone said one thing, who is he and what has he done? I got that alot. I also sat at a huge outlet mall south of Atlanta, and watched people coming and going in their cars for probably 2 hrs. There were many AA’s, perhaps 40%, and I saw one O bumper sticker. One! Saw many Mac/Palin. Again, it’s anecdotal, but I just did not see/hear anything that makes me think this election is special.
Comment by eric — October 17, 2008 @ 11:05 am
Old Colin Powell is going to insert himself into this race. He is going on “Meet the Press.” I wouldn’t be surprised if he endorses Obama. Frankly, though, if that is true it comes a day late and a dollar short. National Security and Obama’s lack foreign policy experience aren’t even on the radar screen anymore. The MSM will make much of it, but I don’t believe it will move votes nearly as much as the bishops will.
Finally I find it ironic, that the folks who are deserting McCain are the ones who he thought were his friends — Brooks, Noonan, some NRO folks, and now perhaps Powell.
Comment by dblaikie — October 17, 2008 @ 11:06 am
Chun..I hope it’s true. Obumbler has no shot in any of those states. None.
Comment by eric — October 17, 2008 @ 11:07 am
Prediction on RAS COL Poll for later…
O + 16
Anything less and MAC wins big!!!
Hear that RAS? now get to fixing them numbers!!!
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 11:07 am
dblaikie
I doubt he endorses anyone.
kb
Comment by KeyBored — October 17, 2008 @ 11:07 am
They say it’s to help down ticket races.
Comment by Chun — October 17, 2008 @ 11:08 am
Gotta go
buying some Rays gear.
kb
Comment by KeyBored — October 17, 2008 @ 11:09 am
181. It’s really weird how these RINOs are turning against MAC. At least publically. I mean if Rudy, Romney amd Lieberman support MAC why can these pro-aborts do the same????
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 11:09 am
as i said- been away a few days. Before i left someone was posting that Fla repubs requested more 150k more absentee ballots than dems.
a- was this true
b- if so, is it significant
Comment by GPO — October 17, 2008 @ 11:09 am
I’m guessing the early voting stats are the reason he’s going back to Georgia. West Virginia has shown some polling shifts towards him so that’s understandable. North Dakota and Kentucky I agree he’s got no chance at.
Comment by Chun — October 17, 2008 @ 11:12 am
“as i said- been away a few days. Before i left someone was posting that Fla repubs requested more 150k more absentee ballots than dems.
a- was this true
b- if so, is it significant”
A: True
B: Florida has always had a Republican advantage when it comes to absentee voting. But it is a sign that McCain will win the military vote, I think.
Comment by Chun — October 17, 2008 @ 11:14 am
AF Rico,
I cannot make the Prince William Co rally on Sat.
I had an opportunity for VIP tickets for the rally (whatever that means) but I have other obligations that I just cannot break this weekend.
Should be a fantastic rally though!
Keep up the good work!
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 11:15 am
DWu, I would normally agree with you and Polaris however, this year we’re talking about a once in a lifetime chance for libs to seize total and complete power. That trumps everything.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 11:18 am
Reseach2000 (the kos pollster) GA:
McCain 49
Senator Government 43
Basically unchanged from the poll of that state they did a couple of weeks ago.
In the end, McCain will win this state by 12 points I think.
Comment by Darrell — October 17, 2008 @ 11:18 am
More Dem voter fraud.
http://www.walb.com/Global/story.asp?s=9177991
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 11:22 am
Guys we’re down 2 in a d+13 sample poll. Best news I’ve heard all week!
Comment by Houston — October 17, 2008 @ 11:22 am
Anecdotal evidence from Northern Virginia shows the same — not much excitement about the race.
There seemed to be a lot more excitement/anger to vote for/against Bush in 2004.
Actually, there seemed to be a lot more excitement in VA for the 2006 Senate race between Webb and Allen.
I’d be very surprised if turnout goes up significantly from 2004.
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 11:22 am
Didn’t the Washington Post endorse the Republican candidate for Maryland governor 2 years ago?
Not that it was any suprise they would endorse Obama. I expect many more newspapers to endorse Obama over McCain than endorsed Kerry over Bush.
No one pays attention to newspaper endorsements anyway.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 11:23 am
Good point, Phil.
You’re 100% correct that pollsters will have plenty of cover/excuses to explain why they were so “off” this year.
I mean, look at Gallup. They’ve always relied on their traditional models.
But this year, Gallup decides that it must, must, must account for the impending and massive “youth vote.”
Come on, now. Is this the 1st time we’ve ever heard about how the youth vote was finally going to show up?
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 11:25 am
“No one pays attention to newspaper endorsements anyway.” Aaron_in_Texas
That’s because no one reads newspapers any more.
….except dinosaurs like me.
Comment by Hellbelly — October 17, 2008 @ 11:26 am
RAS Debate Poll
Obama 47%
McCain 33%
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 11:27 am
Re #158:
I hope you’re right about the “bishop eruption” in the swing states. They could have done this back in 2004 since Kerry claimed to be Catholic, but most of them held off. Neither of the candidates in this race is Catholic.
The official position of the Catholic Church is pro-life, but also anti-war and against the death penalty, so the bishops tend to pick and choose which position they should emphasize depending on where they are. I was horrified to find out that the bishop of Hartford, CT gave money to ACORN!
The EWTN news anchor (Raymond Arroyo) does tend to emphasize the pro-life position, and is conservative on economic issues. He probably got a friendly interview on Fox, since Sean Hannity is a conservative Catholic. What the Bishops will say depends on where they are, since they answer to the Pope, not to EWTN.
Comment by Steve Z — October 17, 2008 @ 11:28 am
lots of reports from VA today…So I will update about the critical tidewater area. The most populous part of the state and home to about 10 military bases. I agree that there is nowhere near the excitement about this race when compared to 2004. Back then there was a constant buzz as you walk the neighborhoods, and people were even making home-made yard signs when they couldn’t find any printed ones. I remember 4 years ago a Kerry supporter making a huge sign that said “help is on the way.” I see none of that this year. There are very few Obama signs, and a lot of McCain/Palin signs by comparison. From everything I am gathering here, expect McCain to do better in this part of the state than Bush did four years ago. He most certainly will do better among the military vote, as Kerry did siphon off some with his background. McCain is a real naval hero, and that will go a long way in this town.
Comment by Darrell — October 17, 2008 @ 11:33 am
“It’s really weird how these RINOs are turning against MAC”
If by RINO, you mean “intellectual conservative” like David Brooks or Christopher Buckley. They are turned off by Sarah Palin, and I expect they didn’t like McCain all that much in the first place. Probably due to his stances on immigration and the environment.
Conservatives used to act intelligently. Like the first George Bush. Now they try and appeal to “Joe Sixpack” or “Joe the Plumber.” You’d think everybody in America was named Joe.
The guy who runs Electoral Projection pegs the Palin/Couric interviews as the turning point in the race. He is very conservative Christian republican.
Somebody like Kay Bailey Hutchinson or that Carly Fiorina would have been far better than Palin, if McCain really wanted a woman.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 11:34 am
“….except dinosaurs like me.”
LOL, I read them too. But, you’re right, it’s an “older” way to get the news.
They won’t completely die out, because people still want local coverage and info about what events are going on, “Best of” lists and things like that.
What’s disconcerting is the decline in international and even national coverage. Americans are going to become even less aware of the world around them.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 11:38 am
Sarah just used the “S” word against Obama.
SOCIALISM!
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 11:38 am
…..if Sarah Palin made half the number of serious gaffes that Biden has, you might have a point.
But she’s been superb in very difficult circumstances (thrust onto the public stage with very little warning). That shows me grace. That shows me leadership. That shows me intelligence.
No, she doesn’t have an east-coast ivy league pedigree.
Good for her!
Comment by Hellbelly — October 17, 2008 @ 11:40 am
The MAC camp would be well advised to continue to hammer Obama on the “Joe the Plumber” tax issues, and to call Obama’s tax policy what it is — socialism.
Good for them.
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 11:43 am
Noonan is what we call a “professional catholic”.. the worst kind.
Comment by Sharon — October 17, 2008 @ 11:44 am
Aaron, you are right that these folks are “intellectual conservatives” but the problem is that they have lived in their own ivory towers so long they have lost touch with who and what Americans are. The reason that the reaction to Palin by the average Joe has been so huge is because we recognize that she is not just another Beltway insider who is going to offer us more of the same crap (like Obama, McCain and Biden are). Americans are tired of career politicians and we want to see something fresh. Thus, I think it is time to start pushing for a Constitutional Amendment for Congressional term limits, I think the people are finally ready.
Comment by Bryan McAffee — October 17, 2008 @ 11:45 am
new Research2000 FL poll showing 1 point movement to McCain over their poll a week ago
McCain 45
Sen. Govt. 49
Comment by Darrell — October 17, 2008 @ 11:45 am
Here is a report from Reno Nevada.
Not much excitment here. I see very few bumper stickers for eather candidate on my daily commute(30min on main freeway). In 2004 there were many more stickers.
Some bad info though. Dem registration now is higher then Rep in Washoe County. This has not been the case for many years.
Comment by RobD — October 17, 2008 @ 11:46 am
#206
Good Point
We need more screening criteria for national candidates.
Ivy League degree = NO
Prep School Graduate = NO
Pronounces it Chowdah = NO
Comment by Brutus — October 17, 2008 @ 11:46 am
GA Early Voting Update
Total Votes Cast 635,798
Black Percentage 35.9%
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 11:46 am
“Come on, now. Is this the 1st time we’ve ever heard about how the youth vote was finally going to show up?”
No one argues that the youth can win an election on their own. However, if the ages break down as they are in the polls right now, Obama would win.
Almost all poll internals show the 18-29 for Obama by 20 points or more. He runs even in the other demographics except 65+, which he runs almost even.
They don’t need to turn out in much larger numbers to make a difference if they do break for Obama by that much. As long as he holds even in the other demographics. That’s the real key.
Polaris seems to think they will not turn out in similar numbers as 2004. I see no reason to believe this, when their vote as a percentage of the electorate has increased steadily since 2000.
I don’t expect they will turn out in some “massive” way. It’ll probably be similar or slightly more than 2004.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 11:46 am
Research 2000 = KOS poll
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 11:47 am
What is with the AP poll? No independents? They’ve pushed every registered voter to declare to be an R or D??
Sorry, that doesn’t fly even though I like the results.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 11:48 am
Darrell,
It’s odd, no? The media keeps saying how “excited” everyone is this year, but I just don’t see it here in Northern VA.
Without hyperbole, it seemed that there was much more excitement for the VA House races and the Webb-Allen Senate race in 2006 — an off-year election!
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 11:49 am
Supreme Court sides with Dem SOS in Ohio.
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 11:50 am
I prefer teh Bill O’Reilly Catholic to the Noonan Cathoilc myself. Just as I prefer the Eric Cantor Jew over the Chuck Schumer Jew.
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 11:51 am
It’s nice to see the race finally tightening. The last month has been tough to watch. I’m cautiously optimistic that this move is real, but I’m ready for the chance that McCain is receiving an “over sold” bounce. If it holds through Monday, great.
I don’t know how many of you visit RedState, but Erick Erickson says his sources have told him there is definite movement to McCain and it has begun to show up in state polling. Erick may be a partisan, but he’s not a bluffer on things like this.
Comment by Robbie — October 17, 2008 @ 11:52 am
6th District Minnesota Saint Cloud Area..
Not a ton of signs yet. However everyone I speak with seems to be pro PALIN/ Mccain….. She is the headliner here. Even people I KNOW voted for Kerry and Gore say they are voteing McCain. This should equal a high Margin in the District than in recent History.
Comment by John MacHardy — October 17, 2008 @ 11:52 am
AAIT,
The point folks here have been making for weeks/months is that many pollsters have radically changed their polling methods based on a perceived radical change in the elecorate.
See Gallup.
As you admit, you don’t think there will be a radical change in the electorate.
Neither do we.
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 11:53 am
I’m just in Texas and we don’t really have a race here. However, I see far fewer Obama stickers than I saw Kerry stickers in 04. I expect Obama to run better than Kerry here for sure, but as far as all this great enthusiasm for “the one”. It just doesn’t exist in my neck of the woods relative to Kerry in 04. Just not there.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 11:53 am
One of the all-time great political books is Hunter Thompson’s “Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ‘72″. Yeah, his politics were basically loathsome, but he was funny and quite insightful.
One of the key points in that book was that McGovern was counting on the youth and minority vote to come out in a huge way “to clear the swine of of Washington.” Keep in mind in ‘72 you had three things indicating that this might indeed occur: 1) first national election where 18 year olds could vote; 2) you had a hyper-politicized electorate – especially amongst the young – turned on by the Vietnam war; and 3) the opponent was the deeply loathed Richard Nixon.
Despite this confluence of factors (arguably greater than we see this year) that tidal wave of youth and minority vote never materialized.
….and its been a sucker bet ever since.
Comment by Hellbelly — October 17, 2008 @ 11:54 am
“Supreme Court sides with Dem SOS in Ohio.”
Comment by Brandon
Link?
Comment by Rachel — October 17, 2008 @ 11:54 am
McCain is surging in MN and WI – why else would he be going there and holding rallies!
Comment by John — October 17, 2008 @ 11:55 am
I forgot to mention Colin Powell. I don’t generally believe endorsements matter that much, but we have to remember the people with whom we are dealing. The media will trumphet this from the highest mountain top for days and days. It will take away from McCain coverage and that will hurt. JMO.
Comment by Robbie — October 17, 2008 @ 11:55 am
I just heard it on Fox News, which btw is beautiful in HD.
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 11:56 am
#213 Just as I thought. The numbers are underwhelming and the AA percentage is steadily going down. All this shows is that Obama is a good organizer and gets his core supporters to the polls early if possible…but we already knew that. I wouldn’t worry too much about GA.
#214 Way to misrepresent my position there, tex. First of all, you need to correct for partisan weights on all the other age categories. When you do, things don’t look nearly so rosy for Obama.
Secondly, in terms of relative percentages, the youth vote in 2004 was a huge dissapointment. A lot of the unweighted media polls are depending on a youth turnout that matches the US census (at the insistance of Nate Silver). This almost NEVER happens, and this year will be no exception.
Look the story has been sold that this race is “over”. Youth voters are fickle, so being told that, the young voter will stay home. Bank on it.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 11:57 am
I see John Paul Stevens has made his contribution to the Obama campaign.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 11:57 am
I haven’t seen the voye breakdown, but I can almost bet Anthony Kennedy sold out the conservative movement once again. Polaris, this is why so many of us opposed Harriet Miers.
Comment by Robbie — October 17, 2008 @ 11:57 am
#220 robbie
link?
thx in advance
Comment by GPO — October 17, 2008 @ 11:57 am
“she is not just another Beltway insider who is going to offer us more of the same crap”
I specifically remember Bush in 2000 saying those types of things. That’s why I voted for him then.
And then he turns out to be horribly incurious. He didn’t want to know about complications or the “nuances” of issues. “Cut the crap out and just decide” is the vibe I get from him.
Sarah Palin seems to be the same way. She thinks that a mom’s “common sense” can solve America’s problems, when the reality is that complex problems require complex solutions.
Ie: McCain’s “spending freeze.” That is impossible. If he froze spending, he would not be able to accomplish even his own goals.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 11:57 am
MAC needs to but one of these 30 minute shows before game 5 of the Worls Series. I say game 5 b/c it will trump Obama’s game 6 and there’s no way in hell the Phillies are going to beat the rays or Red Sox twice. Another World Series blowout!!
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 11:58 am
http://www.redstate.com
Scroll down the page.
Comment by Robbie — October 17, 2008 @ 11:59 am
Do you think Sarah (unlike Gaffe Boy) knows that there are 4 letters in j-o-b-s? Just sayin.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 11:59 am
It’s now on Drudge. The Supreme Court has given the Dems in Ohio the right to vote as often as they like.
Comment by Rachel — October 17, 2008 @ 11:59 am
“complex problems require complex solutions.”
No offense, AAIT, but spoken like a true liberal.
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 12:01 pm
#254. Eph you are right. It will be a blowout. GO PHILS!
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 12:01 pm
I think Stevens didn’t needed to consult the entire court. It was his jurisdiction.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 12:01 pm
Aaron-In-Texas,
If it comes down to actually SOLVING the entrenched political system in DC, who would you trust:
Two Trial Lawyers
Two non-lawyers with real practical experience.
To me, it’s a no brainer. That doesn’t mean that they’d be able to fix the system, but I think the way to bet is obvious.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:02 pm
162. Did kb just inadverently publish his real name? Tool.
Comment by maelstrom — 10/17/2008 @ 10:57 am
Quick – let’s call Keith Olbermann and tell him that kb secrectly likes McCain. We will know his home address, social security number, medical history and whether his ancestors owned slaves by 3:00 p.m.
Comment by Bitterlaw — October 17, 2008 @ 12:02 pm
It’s all over the news.
So now there’s practically nothing to stop approx 200,000 ACORN votes to count, since each of the 88 counties in Ohio are expected to verify the registrations…I’m sure that’ll happen, especially in Cuyahoga Co.
This is big news, and bad news.
Comment by AF Rico — October 17, 2008 @ 12:03 pm
From Drudge:
NEW YORK TIMES to endorse Obama in Sunday editions…
WOW, I AM SHOCKED.
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 12:03 pm
Can someone send me an Ohio ballot? I would like to vote a few times from AZ?
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 12:04 pm
Aaron_in_Texas,
Ordinary people sometimes have to do spending freezes. Why not Govt? It’s about the only way that you can get entitlement spending under control…and precisely why most Dems hate it. It’s brutal I grant, but the situation is brutal too.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:04 pm
Didnt all the “newspapers” endorse John Kerry too?
So why are you people even bringing this up?
Your wasting posting space!!!
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 12:05 pm
That’s terrible. A public official holds the position in the public trust. Such people should be expected to follow the law!
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:06 pm
High court rejects GOP bid in Ohio voting dispute
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93SBC3O0&show_article=1
voter fraud is now legal
have we just lost Ohio?
Comment by mystery — October 17, 2008 @ 12:07 pm
Who runs the hotline poll???
Comment by hugh — October 17, 2008 @ 12:07 pm
re 224:
Remember, McGovern was the 3rd string candidate. Nixon made sure he ran against the weakest possible person. This is not the case today.
Like I said, they cannot win an election on their own, but most reports indicate that Obama has a lot of organizational stregnth, especially with social networking.
Polaris, I specifically remember you telling me that Obama’s youth numbers would not match Kerry’s. Obama has much better organization than Kerry did.
I agree that they are fickle. But if Obama cannot get them out, then no one can. Obama is now warning his people to not get complacent.
I agree that they may not increase by too much, but I don’t think there’s any reason for them to decline in percentage. You must have missed where I said that Obama must run even in the other age groups for the youth to make a difference.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:08 pm
MAC should add the issue of voter fraud to his message in Ohio — taxes, bitter clingers and voter fraud.
Rally good and decent Ohioans to reject Obama/ACORN’s attempt to commit massive voter fraud in their state.
In all seriousness, folks, we have a huge problem with Democratic voter fraud in America. As John Fund notes, we’re only seeing the tip of the iceberg.
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 12:08 pm
Hopefully this disenfranchisement of real Ohio voters will stir up enough anger among actual, live voters to get them to the polls to overcome this massive, historical Dem fraud.
Comment by Rachel — October 17, 2008 @ 12:09 pm
so KB’s real name is Stephen Urgo. With that kind of an unusual last name, we should be able to find it on switchboard.com and publish his address here.
Comment by Darrell — October 17, 2008 @ 12:09 pm
Hey, Obama just got another 50,000 votes in Cleveland.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 12:09 pm
#249 No, not yet Mystery. Even with ACORN fraud should only make a difference if the race is close (within a percent or so). Ohio is not going to be that close if I am reading the real trends correctly (and I believe I am).
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:10 pm
Kerry had the best Dem GOTV effort maybe ever — certainly the best in my lifetime.
It will take a lot for Obama to equal or exceed that.
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 12:11 pm
It might actually turn out to our advantage to have this SCOTUS decision like this. Had it been upheld, then the issue dies out in people’s mind, now there will be greater outrage, and as Polaris said, it might not have mattered much in OH anyway.
Comment by Darrell — October 17, 2008 @ 12:11 pm
“Didnt all the “newspapers†endorse John Kerry too?”
Absolutely not. Bush got a whole bunch of endorsements. Ie: No Texas newspaper endorsed Kerry, except maybe the Corpus Christi one, if I recall. The Austin paper was kinda funny – they basically said they disliked Bush, but endorsed him anyway.
I think Kerry won on total circulation, mainly because of the big names – NY Times, LA Times, etc…
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:11 pm
253. Do people really care about this? When your working 74 hours a week it’s hard for the average person to even pay attention to these things. And if it means working a straight 40 hours a week, then who cares about voter fraud? Americans are getting super lazy.
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 12:12 pm
254-as much as I think that kb is truly misguided, what would publishing his information accomplish?
Comment by knova_red — October 17, 2008 @ 12:12 pm
Did you all see the kid on Fox News today who lives in New York but laughed about voting in Ohio?
It is said that he was part of an effort by a bunch of students to commit voter fraud in Ohio.
The kid was proud of his fraud in the interview.
That’s today’s Democrat party.
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 12:13 pm
this from Fox News
Supreme Court Rules With Ohio Secretary of State on Voter Fraud Rules
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/17/ohio-secretary-state-files-extension-compliance-circuit-court-voter-fraud/
Comment by mystery — October 17, 2008 @ 12:13 pm
Wow. The New York Times and the Washington Post are going to endorse Obama? That is almost as shocking as 2+2=4.
Comment by Bitterlaw — October 17, 2008 @ 12:14 pm
#240
Can Roberts require the full court to consider the case regardless of Stevens’ idiocy?
Comment by Brutus — October 17, 2008 @ 12:14 pm
261…he was all gleeful here yesterday about Joe the Plumber getting his address put online. Tit for tat.
Comment by Darrell — October 17, 2008 @ 12:14 pm
“Kerry had the best Dem GOTV effort maybe ever — certainly the best in my lifetime.”
If that’s true, it doesn’t say much for Dem GOTV efforts in prior years.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:14 pm
#251
Aaron_In_Texas,
I would argue that “no one can”. Look I remember the 2004 election distinctly. There was real fire in the youth vote that year esp over Iraq (now a dead letter issue). Wall Street while important to the likes of us doesn’t fire up the youth vote. Sorry, AAITX but it doesn’t!
Furthermore, most people on the steet are buying into the “Obama has an overwhelming lead” theory. This hurts the youth vote first and worst.
Ergo, I am expecting a relative turnout in the youth vote to be about the same as historic presidential elections (about 12-15%) or even less. If I am correct (and I have strong political history on my side for this assumption), then Obama goes down in flames on election day.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:14 pm
262. Great stuff! Maybe the churches in Ohio can get some “extra” ballots too?
You know what they say…
if you can’t beat ‘em…
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 12:15 pm
Kerry still lead in total newspaper endorsements by about 2-1.
Comment by Bryan McAffee — October 17, 2008 @ 12:16 pm
“The kid was proud of his fraud in the interview.”
A lot of kids cheat and think it’s okay. As long as it accomplishes their goals. Academic honesty’s a big problem.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:16 pm
Leave kb alone. Only Republicans need to be destroyed by Obama’s storm troopers.
Comment by Bitterlaw — October 17, 2008 @ 12:17 pm
#254 – Sorry, but I disagree. If you want your own privacy respected you should respect others’.
Comment by Rachel — October 17, 2008 @ 12:17 pm
Does anyone expect a huge Obumbler outlier sample for Gallup today? It’s usually every 3rd day.
Comment by eric — October 17, 2008 @ 12:18 pm
#267 I would argue that it wasn’t Kerry that got the youth vote out. That happened on it’s own because Iraq resonated so negative with the youth college vote. Kerry was said to be shocked at the youth turnout.
That said, the GOP still turned out more. There is absolutely no evidence that this race is generating even a fraction of the enthusiasm/hate on campus that 2004 did.
Basically 2004, the Dems hit a turnout wall and they STILL couldn’t get elected. Even in 2006 with the GOP down that year and a similiar turnout, the actual partisan mix was still well within historic norms.
Basically those pollsters that are depending on a “Army of Youth” are on crack.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:19 pm
I heard before that the Hotline poll is run by a big time dem. Is that true?
Comment by hugh — October 17, 2008 @ 12:20 pm
I agree with the Ohio issue being another wake up call for the moribund GOP voter.
Put the video of the NY fraud voter, the homeless voting for Newports, and other images on the tube and you’ll get a response.
One the DEMs and O’hole will rue.
And not just in Ohio.
Comment by Brutus — October 17, 2008 @ 12:20 pm
Gee Aaron,
Committing voter fraud where the end result decides who is going to hold the most powerful position on Earth may be kind of important as well. You know, just sayin.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 12:21 pm
Maybe the little punk won’t laugh as much when he does some jail time for voter fraud. Of course, that would require some law enforcement official to have some guts and prosecute him.
Comment by Bitterlaw — October 17, 2008 @ 12:21 pm
#276 I think so. Hotline has connections with Todd/MSNBC or so I’ve been told.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:21 pm
Polaris,
Our social studies teacher showed me a graph of youth turnout. It showed that Kerry did increase the percentage of young voters. It went from about 35% to 43% from 2000 to 2004. I seriously doubt that Obama will get any more youth to vote than Kerry. Kerry made an incredible push for them.
Frank
Comment by Frank — October 17, 2008 @ 12:22 pm
#263:
That is a huge defeat for the Ohio GOP. Not judging the decision, or anything. Just calling it what it is.
Comment by Tim — October 17, 2008 @ 12:22 pm
MD – I may be done with Smerconish for a while. That leaves me a choice of sports talk and Radio Disney on drive to work. High School Musical 3 is coming out so I may go with Disney.
Comment by Bitterlaw — October 17, 2008 @ 12:25 pm
Frank,
What did your social studies teacher define to be a “Youth” voter?
Definitions are critical. I define a “Youth Voter” to be a voter from ages 18-30. Most pollsters do.
However some commentators/Poli-Sci people define the “youth vote” to be 18-40 or 18-50.
As Samuel Clemons (aka Mark Twain) once said, “There are three kinds of lies. Lies, Damn lies, and statistics”
All that said, I agree with the conclusion. The youth vote was super-motivated in 2004 (and 06). I believe we’ve seen it maxxed out. In fact young voters are fickle and that’s going to kill Obama.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:26 pm
The story in 2006 was that a significant portion of social cons stayed home. That was enough to turn congress. Again, they could be a significant factor in this race especially since they are a hard group to capture in polling. See 1980 and 1994.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 12:27 pm
“However some commentators/Poli-Sci people define the “youth vote†to be 18-40 or 18-50.”
Comment by Polaris
You know, this definition of “youth” is starting to look better and better to me.
Comment by Rachel — October 17, 2008 @ 12:28 pm
regarding # 251….Nixon making sure he ran against the Dem’s “third string candidate”
Wow….if Nixon knew he had that sort of power over the Democrats he would never had needed to resort to dirty tricks.
In fact McGovern (who beat both the presumptive front runner “Big” Ed Muskie and former vice president Hubert Humphrey in the primaries) was the one candidate who could have motivated the youth to come out in a big way. Didn’t happen then.
Hasn’t happened since.
Comment by Hellbelly — October 17, 2008 @ 12:28 pm
Bitter,
Smerconish’s turn has pretty much coincided with his relationship with MSNBC. In 12 months, Michael will be back to being a lawyer only. Liberal radio does not sell – anywhere.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 12:30 pm
” am expecting a relative turnout in the youth vote to be about the same as historic presidential elections (about 12-15%)”
By doing so, you’re ignoring the trends since 2000, especially evident in 2006. Especially if that 15% breaks for Obama stronger than before. In 2000, they broke for Gore by a very small percentage. Kerry lost every other group pretty badly, particularly the 50-64 group.
I find it hard to believe that young people would get so worked up over the primaries and not give a damn about the real election. But that is a possibility.
We care about jobs too. And McCain’s emphasis on taxes doesn’t really affect any young people at all. But your Iraq points are interesting. That is indeed an issue on the back burner now.
I guess we’ll have to see.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:31 pm
R2K Texas
McCain 52%
Obama 40%
R2K Texas Senate
Cornyn 50%
Noriega 44%
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 12:31 pm
Obama has no choice but to continue to control the airways with blanket ads. He has to keep his numbers artificially high in the polls. I like watching tv but detest Obama ads every half hour. Never thought I’d live to see that happen in Texas – not in my worst nightmare.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 12:31 pm
#287 Just so, and it’s since become something of a political joke. Every four years we are told the youth vote will really make a difference this year.
Every four years those pundits that claim this are wrong.
There is a one word term for a candidate that is depending on an Army of Youth turnout:
LOSER
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:32 pm
I keep seeing the same BO ad…over, and over, and over…
zzzzzz
Comment by Rachel — October 17, 2008 @ 12:33 pm
For those that maintain it doesn’t make a difference if Obama gets in or not because life will go on…I refer you to the recent Supreme Court decision not to make Ohio account for their voter fraud. If this doesn’t convince everyone that we need a conservative president to appoint more conservative justices’s then I don’t know what kind of argument you need.
Comment by Sharon — October 17, 2008 @ 12:33 pm
“Total Votes Cast 635,798
Black Percentage 35.9%”
—
Black Percentage of the state population 30%
Comment by KnightHawk — October 17, 2008 @ 12:34 pm
#290 This is from R2K, Kos’ favorite pollster. If Obama is down 12 in Texas according to this pollster, you can be sure that he’s down even more….which perfectly corresponds with my own read of Texas (and from what I understand AITX’s read as well).
Obama isn’t going to be competative in Texas and likely loses by double digits easily.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:34 pm
Polaris-
You are really having a good time today, aren’t you?
When, if at all, do you think we will actually see the polls turning red again? Or will we just have to wait until election night?
Comment by Sharon — October 17, 2008 @ 12:35 pm
#295 More to the point, the percentage of AA voters in the State’s RVs is about 29%. Basically, it’s working out in early voting like I predicted. Dissapointing numbers AND while an increase in the AA turnout, ultimately not enough of one.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:36 pm
#297 Probably have to wait until election night. I’ve love to be wrong about that, however.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:37 pm
SUSA Florida
McCain 49%
Obama 47%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45bb3f2c-2191-49e1-9d67-a326956b75ca&c=42
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 12:38 pm
#299 I mean I’d love to be wrong about my prediction and see some polls with Mac leading going into the final weekend.
Don’t expect that, however.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:38 pm
RE 300:
Dave W. Time to flip Florida back to red.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:39 pm
Obama is now running radio ads in PA stating that he and Ayers only worked on education reform together.
If McCain’s focus on Obama’s associations was not working (like the msm and the idiots at NRO would have us believe) then why would “The One” be running these ads?
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 12:39 pm
GA Early Voting Update
Total Votes Cast 635,798
Black Percentage 35.9%
Comment by Brandon
Started at 40%, then 37% now 35.9%.
Tim?
It has no place to go but down.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 12:40 pm
I suspect “Sthpehn Urgo” is not kb’s real name. This was an intentional “slip” to get back at someone. Don’t publish the name and address.
Comment by maelstrom — October 17, 2008 @ 12:40 pm
#303 Obviously he wouldn’t. Ayers, ACORN, and especially Joe the Plumber aka “spread the wealth” are working. The attacks against JtP are going to make the “Spread the Wealth” charge even more potent.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:40 pm
re 287:
Muskie should have been the candidate in 1972, followed by Humphrey (who probably also would have lost).
Nixon released the Canuck letter and played other dirty tricks to keep him from getting the nomination.
With Muskie taken out, the democrats had a weak field.
Polls throughout that campaign showed McGovern to be weak. He had no establishment support. And then there was the Eagleton shock therapy mess, that made him even weaker.
2008 is a totally different story. Obama has a strong starting point, as no Kerry states seem weak.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:42 pm
I agree with Aaron on at least one thing. At this moment in time, no Kerry states appear to be at risk. Wait another 7 days. That narrative will change.
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 12:45 pm
“Obama isn’t going to be competative in Texas and likely loses by double digits easily.”
I agree with that. Obama never seriously contested Texas, and pulled out weeks ago. I don’t know why he’s even buying ads. Perhaps hoping strong turnout in the already blue areas will help downticket races.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:45 pm
Hah! Of course. Susa is showing a Florida lead for Mac now that they are using the RIGHT turnout model for Florida (GOP+4). Look at the early voters. Mac is getting the early vote in Florida. That’s bad news for Obama because (look at the primaries), Obama relies on the early vote but Mac has an 8 point lead in those that say they’ve already voted! {I am guessing it’s military absentees for the most part}
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:45 pm
#265,
According to Fox News, Stevens went to the entire court to get the decision, so it wasn’t his alone.
Which shocked me as much as the decision itself…that the decision didn’t go the other way since they heard it en banc.
Comment by AF Rico — October 17, 2008 @ 12:46 pm
#307 Aaron_In_Texas,
PA looks very shakey for Obama at least per the campaign sources I am reading (from both parties).
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:47 pm
Oh…and Minn looks to be very shakey as well for Obama.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:48 pm
311-According to the WSJ it appears to be a “legal standing” issue with the court, as in the GOP did not have the legal standing to ask for the injunction. This is truly the ruling of a non-activist court, one that follows the law, not their own opinions.
Comment by knova_red — October 17, 2008 @ 12:48 pm
AF,
I stand corrected. That the whole court went that way shocks me also. Guess we know where Kennedy went. He makes all law these days.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 12:49 pm
#311
More troubling is that other states will now use the precedent.
Comment by Brutus — October 17, 2008 @ 12:50 pm
For those with knowledge of Georgia, what is the relevance of the 35.9% AA vote?
What are we looking for in GA?
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 12:50 pm
#308 If you use the ‘real’ numbers (courtesy Benni), Obama is likely to lose Minn at this time.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:50 pm
GALLUP plus 3 for obama im guessing today (they cant let obama slip too much, need to throw in a +25 day for him)
Comment by theoneandonlyfinn — October 17, 2008 @ 12:51 pm
I am still not sold on PA being in play. That is why I was so shocked when Mac pulled resources from MI. If there was any blue state that should be unhappy with Dem government, it is MI. JMO
Comment by MDefl — October 17, 2008 @ 12:51 pm
Don’t worry the MSM will ignore the Survey USA result in Florida. You almost have to laugh. The AP puts out a poll that says that McCain has pulled to even. But you won’t find that until you look into their internals. You will find it on page 6, by the way. But their head line is “McCain sours voters.” What fairness. How balanced!
Comment by dblaikie — October 17, 2008 @ 12:52 pm
Polaris,
Is Florida really +4 Republican?
I checked the numbers on that graph, and immediately saw it 44R-40D, and hoped this methodology was accurate.
Comment by AF Rico — October 17, 2008 @ 12:53 pm
The last Survey USA poll showed McCain up as well. He’s improved 1 point from that one.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:53 pm
#317
Here is the relevance. A couple of weeks ago when early voting opened up for GA, the state SOS (to meed federal civil rights guidelines) had to report the minority percentages of early voters and a shocking 40% of the early turnout was AA. AA voters represent 29% of RVs in GA and generally vote a bit less than that, so a 40% final number would put the entire state in doubt and sink Chambliss.
What I contested at the time was that we were seeing an organized effort by the Obama people to get the Atlanta AA neighborhoods to vote first and bank those votes (which was a common Obama primary strat btw) and that this didn’t reflect the overwhelming surge that the MSM at the time was trying to make it out to be.
Now we see that the numbers in relation to the voting population of GA is dissapointing (only about 600K so far) AND the AA percentage is rapidly decreasing to RV base levels.
Moral: The AA vote in GA will be up this year (which all of us expect), but not by enough to make a difference in the final analysis. [Which is why you aren't seeing it splashed over the news any more.]
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:55 pm
My hunch is that Obama is advertising in red states like Texas because he believes he has already won the election and wants to claim a majority of Americans voted for him.
If the Dems in Texas don’t bother to vote because they know McCain will win, then his GE vote total will be reduced.
Its all perception.
And, of course, if (please!) he doesn’t win, pundits will look at these ad buys mockingly, as they should.
Comment by Desert Hermit — October 17, 2008 @ 12:56 pm
#323 Yes, but that survey was before “Mac went to Washington” and got panned for it. Basically, this poll (as you correctly note) is statistically the same as the one three weeks before even AFTER this huge surge was supposed to have happened for Obama.
Guess what? I didn’t work out that way.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:56 pm
Dave W (or whoever):
Please flip Florida Red based on the SUSA poll.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:57 pm
And Georgia has gone from double to single digits, with the latest poll showing McCain under 50. Only the 2nd one in months showing that. This one is not likely to flip, but not a great result for McCain.
I still think the election is in VA and CO.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 12:58 pm
Key stat in the FL SUSA poll:
Among Indy’s Obama only has a 3% lead.
In 2004, Kerry clobbered Bush among Indys by 16%.
As MAC’s base continues to “come home”, MAC’s FL lead should widen significantly.
(BTW – I have a very hard time believing that MAC will only get 80% of FL Repubs. GWB got 93% of FL Repubs in 2004 and they were mad as heck at him. I know b/c I did phone banks to FL residents for weeks for GWB in 2004 and I can’t count the number of Repubs who said they hated Bush and weren’t voting for him again.)
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 12:58 pm
#322 In registrations, +4GOP is not accurate. In turnout it is (at least approximately).
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 12:59 pm
wheres that ludicrous gallup poll(s)?
Comment by theoneandonlyfinn — October 17, 2008 @ 12:59 pm
#328 I expect that Mac will win GA by low double-digits or high single digits when all is said and done. However the AA vote will make GA closer than it normally would be. No argument there.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 1:01 pm
#331 They are trying to cook the numbers for the latest Gallup.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 1:02 pm
DWu – Obama getting his AA vote out early, MAC wins GA, Chambliss remains at risk, lower that % figure drops better chance Chambliss has. Not good news for Chambliss that Obama may be sending staff back to GA.
Comment by KnightHawk — October 17, 2008 @ 1:02 pm
Gallup Tracking
RV’s
Obama 50%(+1)
McCain 43%(nc)
LV’s Trad
Obama 49%(nc)
McCain 47%(nc)
LV’s Expanded
Obama 51%(nc)
McCain 45%(nc)
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 1:03 pm
Dow up almost 200. Let’s see if this trend continues.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 1:03 pm
has IBD been released yet for today?
Comment by theoneandonlyfinn — October 17, 2008 @ 1:04 pm
Gallup, No huge O sample last night? Stunning news.
Comment by eric — October 17, 2008 @ 1:04 pm
dont worry eric theres always the weekend for them to add some o+10s and o+15s
Comment by theoneandonlyfinn — October 17, 2008 @ 1:05 pm
FL 2004 was Republican +4 according to CNN exits.
Remember, John Kerry had a great GOTV effort in FL in 2004 and still it was +4 Republican.
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 1:05 pm
The Gallup “cover all bases” poll is my favorite of the day.
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 1:05 pm
#334 Not necessarily. I read it this way: Obama may not be happy with the early vote turnout numbers and wants to increase them. Obama lives and dies by his early voters.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 1:05 pm
I wonder what affect the ramifications of this article might have on untenured staff and graduate students afraid to find real jobs.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122420679058043423.html
Comment by knova_red — October 17, 2008 @ 1:06 pm
Hey Guys,
I posted something about this last night on here but. Expect a large turn out for McCain from Liberty University. We registered over 4,000 people and we have election day off and buses are provided to us for free to ride to the polls. And we are a Christian University and there is quite an excitement about Palin.
-Hotstick03
Comment by Hotstick03 — October 17, 2008 @ 1:06 pm
were in VA btw.
-hotstick03
Comment by Hotstick03 — October 17, 2008 @ 1:06 pm
Thanks, GA mavens, for the info.
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 1:06 pm
#335 A slightly better Obama day on Gallup but not that the LV numbers (both models) are unchanged.
Hmmm…..
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 1:06 pm
The Gallup number surprises me. I thought that Obama would go up a couple of points. Listen folks I can almost feel the fear of alot of these talking heads. However, I knew that this was going to happen.
The next shoe to drop is that ABC or someother outfit is going to come out with a poll that shows tightening.
Comment by dblaikie — October 17, 2008 @ 1:07 pm
#347 I mean note that the LV numbers are unchanged.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 1:07 pm
http://www.theindychannel.com/politics/17736145/detail.html
24k expected at Palin rally today in Indianapolis.
Comment by maelstrom — October 17, 2008 @ 1:08 pm
APYahoos poll was i think the first non-tracker poll to show the race tightening considerably…
I think the Newsweek/NYT/CBS/ABC polls giving obama 9-14 pt leads are going to start vanishing from view.
Florida and Ohio now polling back to the margin of error-slight mccain lead…good signs..now if VA/CO/NV/MO would follow suit…
Comment by theoneandonlyfinn — October 17, 2008 @ 1:09 pm
#348 True, a strong mac day rolled off with no big movement.
Interesting. You’re right though. This is the end of the beginning….the pollsters are now beginning to use more realistic turnout models.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 1:10 pm
re 243:
What hurts the economy hurts everybody. I notice in that article it seems to be hurting more of the coastal “elite” schools that tend to offer more free rides.
I’m pretty sure I’ll be working at Starbucks post graduation
Comment by Aaron_in_TX — October 17, 2008 @ 1:10 pm
Oh yeh, I forgot, the weekend will help with the big O samples.
Comment by eric — October 17, 2008 @ 1:10 pm
At most i see obama picking up IA/NM/CO/VA/NV/OH/FL/MO/NC
in order of likelihood.
so if mccain is ahead/even in OH/FL, then Missouri and North Carolina are safer than theyre showing in the polls.
Comment by theoneandonlyfinn — October 17, 2008 @ 1:11 pm
Polaris, the Survey USA numbers are EXACTLY in line with their last poll. McCain gained a point when the sample went from R +2 to +4. The independents split almost to the very number of the last poll. No movement at all in spite of the 5 million a week that messiah has poured into Florida ads.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2008 @ 1:11 pm
As I read more about that AP/Yahoo poll, it looks like it is an internet based poll? Any comments?
It was also stated that the AP state polling was showing wider spreads though i could not find them.
Comment by Ice Cream Man — October 17, 2008 @ 1:12 pm
While I work, I have the tv on and the Obama folks are all on the same page saying, “now you have to look at the calendar.” And I want to scream, WHAT ABOUT PA. YOU JERKS. WHAT ABOUT NEW HAMPSHIRE.
Comment by dblaikie — October 17, 2008 @ 1:14 pm
#356 Exactly which means candidate “Neo” has spent his wad in Fla and has reached saturation.
That’s bad news because it means that Senator Govt’s current florida numbers reflect a ceiling rather than a floor.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 1:14 pm
#357 Internet polls have to be looked at with suspicion at best because internet polls tend to be self-selecting polls, and that’s a major no-no when doing polling. It’s why Zogby’s Interactive polls are generally considered trash.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 1:17 pm
People have been asking some about Colorado… I can tell you in my Colorado Springs neighborhood I believe there are 8 signs for McCain to 1 for Obama… I will qualify this by saying this is in Deep Red Colorado Springs, though…
Comment by Sean — October 17, 2008 @ 1:19 pm
357 – They take the poll data is taken online, but they are contacted to take it offline, it’s still an “opt in” poll basically though.
Comment by KnightHawk — October 17, 2008 @ 1:19 pm
Well, apparently the US SC feels that District Courts can’t enforce federal laws:
http://www.supremecourtus.gov/opinions/08pdf/08A332.pdf
Eh?
Comment by MikeKS — October 17, 2008 @ 1:19 pm
Greetings from Indiana. I live three miles from where Palin will speak today. My wife and daughter are VIP’s today at the Rally. 24K will be there and Palin is creating a buzz. People love this gal in middle America. I think she will bring out a TON of younger conservatives & moms that usually do not get to involved out to vote and think there will be alot of DEMS coming to MAC before it is all said and done.
Saw OBAMA on TV a few minutes ago. He seemed a little more emotional than usual. He came off like an Angry Black Preacher. That attitude will not go well with older undecided voters.
Comment by jeffp — October 17, 2008 @ 1:20 pm
358 – The media have written off PA and NH for Obama long ago.
Comment by KnightHawk — October 17, 2008 @ 1:20 pm
About the OH voter fraud situation, I have a hunch it will spark outrage among R’s (and maybe indies) and this will motivate them to get out and vote. Voters have to be motivated to get out and vote these days and this could spark them to do so.
Comment by phyl — October 17, 2008 @ 1:21 pm
“He came off like an Angry Black Preacher.”
-Just like one of his mentors, Rev Wright.
Comment by KnightHawk — October 17, 2008 @ 1:21 pm
jeffp,
Thanks for the report. What does it mean to be in the VIP section?
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 1:23 pm
#355, I think VA is more likely to flip than CO… CO publishes voter registration statistics by party, and there are more reps than indies, and more indies than dems… Any poll with party weighting anywhere close to the actuals shows McCain up… I also think that NV is more likely to flip than CO…
Comment by Sean — October 17, 2008 @ 1:24 pm
DWu -They will be seating in the first twenty rows in actual seats, I sure they will be standing when the show starts. We have been working volunteer for MAC some.
Comment by jeffp — October 17, 2008 @ 1:25 pm
Dave – I would keep FL for Obama b/c PPP (D) is going to take care of that SU poll very soon…
PPP (D) FL:
Obama +8
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 1:26 pm
Why Peggy Noonan / Fred Barner / Bill Kristol hate McCain?
Because its hard to hit the D.C. cocktail ciruit when your daughter is pregnant with a Downs baby.
The truth hurts folks!!
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 1:28 pm
Thanks, jeff.
Have fun at the rally.
Comment by DWu — October 17, 2008 @ 1:28 pm
You have to love the tv networks. They’re scared that the race will be over by dinner time and nobody will watch. As Frasier Crane said to Cliff Clavin “what color is the sky in your world”?
Then again, they did have Kerry running close in Va 4 years ago. IIRC Indiana and KY are two of the first states to close their polls. We will see right away that Mac is running normally in both of them.
Comment by Addisonst — October 17, 2008 @ 1:30 pm
#371
Instead of that….Dave why don’t you announce the same policy that Realclear Politics has:
No openly partisan polls count.
That would exclude PPP and SV. Seems only fair.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 1:31 pm
We need a new thread.
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 1:33 pm
Dow still up a bit more than 200.
Go..go…go…
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 1:34 pm
I guess RCP will not include that AP poll showing a two point race. I guess they figured only one that close was enough.
Comment by Darrell — October 17, 2008 @ 1:37 pm
#377 – I’ll take anything +50 or more, be great to end the week north of 9000.
Comment by KnightHawk — October 17, 2008 @ 1:38 pm
375. Polaris –
Where do you draw the line regarding these polls? If we did not include partisan polls then 90% of the polls would be eliminated. Right? So which ones would you keeP? Mason-Dixon, S-USA and who else? RAS? No wat, he’s junk too. CNN/Time? also a joke.
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 1:39 pm
Opninated View from One PA Suburb
McCain – enthusiasm high (many signs, lots of engergy, great respect for his courage).
Smerconish – Annoying, reminds me of jumping Jim Jeffords. Certainly someone I will never listen to again.
Comment by Keystone — October 17, 2008 @ 1:41 pm
Up 250…
Comment by Sean — October 17, 2008 @ 1:43 pm
#359
I want to be clear.
Bad news for “O”?
Comment by Brutus — October 17, 2008 @ 1:48 pm
R2K Mississippi
McCain 50%
Obama 40%
Mississippi Senate
Wicker 47%
Musgrove 46%
R2K North Dakota
McCain 45%
Obama 45%
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 1:52 pm
#383 Yes bad news for Obama, “The One”, Neo.
I am suggesting that Dave use the same rule that RCP does. Yes most of the polls are junk and partisan, but a few are openly partisan polls (sometimes push polls). PPP is one of these. So is SV. I say those need to be excluded.
The reason RCP isn’t including the Yahoo poll is because it’s partially an internet poll and RCP refuses to accept internet polls which is a policy I generally agree with.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 1:55 pm
R2K = Kos poll
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 1:55 pm
Actually I’m surprised that R2K has MAC up by 10 in MISS. I thought it would be +3 for Obama.
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 1:56 pm
#384 What did R2K do in ND. Sample the Sioux Reservation? That’s about the only way that Obama is tied with Mac in ND. Puhleeze.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 1:57 pm
As I worte earlier, the only way the Ohio SoS could win is with the help of Anthony Kennedy.
I think we all need to brace for a Colin Powell endorsement. It’s not the enndorsement that will matter so much as the media orgasm that will occur.
McCain needs to egt on the phone with Bush 41 and General Scowcroft and have them talk Powell out of a public endorsement.
Comment by Robbie — October 17, 2008 @ 1:57 pm
Palin in Indiana, eh? Hmm…
Comment by Tim — October 17, 2008 @ 1:57 pm
Christian Family, New York
McCain 45%
Obama 45%
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 1:57 pm
Obama in PA, eh? Hmm…
Comment by Brandon — October 17, 2008 @ 1:59 pm
Rush and Sean need to deflate this Powell endorsement today!!
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 1:59 pm
Has Powell actually endorsed Obama? (Not that this will actually matter)
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 2:01 pm
Polaris – See 380
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 2:04 pm
Obama in the USA,
Hmmmmm . . .
Comment by Brutus — October 17, 2008 @ 2:05 pm
#392:
Obama visits Va. today, and NC tomorrow.
McCain visits Fla., then NC.
This, according to CNN.
Comment by Tim — October 17, 2008 @ 2:06 pm
397-and your point?
Comment by knova_red — October 17, 2008 @ 2:07 pm
What hapenned to Obama’s 50 state tour???
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 2:07 pm
400
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 2:07 pm
Mac in Miami today.
One trip to IN by Palin will undo millions spent by Obama.
It will be her last trip there.
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
Obama was just in NH too.
hmmmm
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
Personally, if you endorse the candidate from the other party, you have a significant issue with loyalty. On a gut level I see it nothing more than a play for another cabinet post, maybe defense.
Powell at a minimum should redesignate himself as an independent. Endorsing Obama and staying a GOP member are completely diametrically opposing.
Comment by Cyrano — October 17, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
So Powell would rather be in Obama’s cabinet than MAC’s??? HUH?????????
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 2:11 pm
Mac gave Letterman his HIGHEST ratings since 2005.
Palin drawing record crowds.
Palin draws record fund raisins.
Palin’s debate BEAT ALL 3 Obama debates, as far as viewers.
The msm isn’t telling what is happening.
The GOP will FLOOD the polls on Nov 4th
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 2:11 pm
#395 I answered your post in 380. All the polls are pretty much trash, but we should use the same standard that RCP does. No overtly partisan and/or internet polls. That’s all.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 2:12 pm
Did Powell actually endorse Obama. If so could someone link it?
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 2:13 pm
Define “overtly” please
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 2:13 pm
Friday, October 17, 2008
A Conversation With McCain-Palin Campaign Manager Rick Davis
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 12:00 PM
From yesterday’s show, a promise of more fireworks ahead, including a rethinking of Jeremiah Wright’s significance after the Lewis/Murtha attacks:
Comment by Howard Dean — October 17, 2008 @ 2:15 pm
#408 One that caters only to partisan clients and/or is an openly partisan poll (like DemCorp).
Tarrant for example is a partisan poller. So is Lake. So is PPP. So is SV.
It’s not that hard. RCP does it; we should too.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 2:16 pm
410. what about R2K, RAS, and CNN. They are all in the tank for Obama too? Can we include those polls in the trash too?
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 2:17 pm
#405, On that theme, HD, this is VERY interesting -
From Redstate Diaries: “Conversations with an internal pollster for Obama”
http://www.redstate.com/diaries/david_rasbold/2008/oct/16/conversations-with-an-internal-pollster-for-o/
“In the polls they’re conducting around the country, and my boss wasn’t able to relay specific numbers, the Obama campaign is very, very worried about how Palin appears to be energizing whole groups of people who don’t typically get energized about politics, precisely because she appeals so strongly to the middle class, as well as women and dissatisfied republicans that stayed home in 2006.
More than that, they don’t know how to guage and predict the support of people typically turned off by politics, but that are enamored with her “up from the bootstraps” appeal.”
Comment by phyl — October 17, 2008 @ 2:19 pm
#411 Unfortunately no because they don’t fit the tight definition I’ve given of a partisan poll.
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — October 17, 2008 @ 2:22 pm
413. I would!
Comment by Eph_Rove — October 17, 2008 @ 2:23 pm
“About the OH voter fraud situation, I have a hunch it will spark outrage among R’s (and maybe indies) and this will motivate them to get out and vote. Voters have to be motivated to get out and vote these days and this could spark them to do so.”
YOU HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD. IF THE GOP does not get mad and respond with overwhelming GOTV, then this election is anyone’s game. I for one am super concerned about Dem fraud this time around–I don’t think the structural EV barraiers that favoir McCain are impervious to what is going on out there–and the Supreme Court certainly didn’t help things.
Comment by Dylan — October 17, 2008 @ 2:25 pm
Hm, What happened to the trolls?
Comment by Sy — October 17, 2008 @ 2:26 pm
My comment was in response to rumors that Powell might endorse Obama this weekend.
Again they are rumors.
I would apply my premise to all RINOs. If you can’t support the party, then at least shut up. That means you, talking heads.
Remember the Hippocratic Oath: Do No Harm.
Comment by Cyrano — October 17, 2008 @ 2:27 pm
#409
Murtha let the genie out of the bottle, he can’t put it back.
He is the definition of an angry old white man.
Comment by Brutus — October 17, 2008 @ 2:30 pm
new thread
Comment by GPO — October 17, 2008 @ 2:31 pm
Polaris
Powell has not yet endorsed. There is speculation he will when he appears on MTP. I suspect he will, otherwise why so up on that show. As I wrote earlier, I don’t think endorsements matter a whole lot. Still, it’s not the endorsement that concerns me, it is the media coverage that will ensue. The orgasm they will have wil dwarf the Mark Foley coverage.
Comment by Robbie — October 17, 2008 @ 2:37 pm