March 26, 2015

Bush Leads GOP in NH

Things got away from me a little bit the last couple of days, but I do have time to post a new poll from Suffolk University for the state of New Hampshire that has Jeb Bush in the lead.

Jeb Bush 19%
Scott Walker 14%
Rand Paul 7%
DOnald Trump 6%
Ted Cruz 5%
Chris Christie 5%
Ben Carso 3%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Marco Rubio 3%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Paul Ryan 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Rick Perry 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Everyone else <0.5%

This poll was done March 21-24 among 500 likely primary voters.

March 25, 2015

Walker Doubles Up On Field in IA

Reading this article is like listening to an Eminem song on the radio….

We had a new poll come out yesterday from Insider Advantage that shows Scott Walker starting to run away from the field in the state of Iowa.

Scott Walker 29%
Ben Carson 14%
Jeb Bush 12%
Mike Huckabee 11%
Ted Cruz 7%
Marco Rubio 5%
Rand Paul 5%
Chris Christie 5%
Donald Trump 3%

This poll was done March 20th among 552 likely caucus goers.

Happy Maryland Day!

March 24, 2015

Coats Will Retire in IN, Clinton Leads GOP in FL is claiming that Dan Coats has decided to forgo another term in the US Senate and will retire. Unfortunately for Republicans, this opens up a seat that was probably considered safe, especially if Evan Bayh decides to make a return.

Public Policy Polling’s latest look at the state of Florida shows Hillary Clinton ahead of all the potential Republican challengers, including home state candidates Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Jeb Bush (R) 44%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Ben Carson (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Scott Walker (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Mike Huckabee (R) 44%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Rand Paul (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Chris Christie (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Ted Cruz (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Marco Rubio (R) 46%

Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Rick Perry (R) 42%

Joe Biden (D) 43%
Scott Walker (R) 43%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 42%
Scott Walker (R) 41%

This poll was done March 19-22 among 923 registered voters.

Clinton Leads GOP in NH, Ayotte Leads Hassan By 2%

An anecdote about Martin O’Malley’s poor name recognition and the hill he needs to climb. On my ride in this morning, I happened to be listening to the local music station that does a small bit called “Smarter Than Reagan” where callers are asked five relatively simple pop culture-type questions and then the host, named Reagan, is asked the same five questions and if the caller answers more correctly than the host, they win. Callers routinely get at least four answers correct and the host normally gets all five. One of the questions this morning (paraphrased) was: Name an Irish band member and former Governor who is thinking of running for President”. The caller had absolutely no idea the answer was Martin O’Malley. Note, this was on a Maryland radio station based on Baltimore. Even the host couldn’t believe this caller couldn’t answer the question.

Over the weekend, we had a poll from Gravis Marketing for the state of New Hampshire and it shows the aforementioned O’Malley trailing the Democratic field.

Scott Walker 19%
Jeb Bush 18%
Chris Christie 10%
Rand Paul 10%
Marco Rubio 7%
Ted Cruz 6%
Ben Crason 6%
Carly Fiorina 4%
Mike Huckabee 4%
Rick Santorum 1%

Hillary Clinton 49%
Elizabeth Warren 20%
Bernie Sanders 12%
Joe Biden 5%
James Webb 2%
Martin O’Malley 2%

Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
Jeb Bush (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Scott Walker (R) 43%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Rand Paul (R) 42%

Kelly Ayotte (R-inc) 47%
Maggie Hassan (D) 45%

This poll was done March 18-19 among registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 8:01 am
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March 23, 2015

Add One More To The Clown Car…

If anyone doubts the Republican primary is going to become a circus, Donald Trump is bringing back his old attack lines he used against Barack Obama to go after Ted Cruz’s birth record. From

The quote as transcribed from Bloomberg:

“Well he’s got, you know, a hurdle that nobody else seems to have at this moment,” said Trump, who was born in Queens. “It’s a hurdle and somebody could certainly look at it very seriously. He was born in Canada … if you know … and when we all studied our history lessons … you’re supposed to be born in this country, so I just don’t know how the courts would rule on it. But it’s an additional hurdle that he has that no one else seems to have.”

I weep at what my party’s primary is going to end up looking like next year if people like Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are going be what voters see in debate after debate. It is just depressing to think about….

Posted by Dave at 8:51 pm
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Clinton Crushes GOP in NY, Emanuel at 49% in Chicago

One week closer to the Chicago mayoral runoff election and Rahm Emanuel is only a single percentage point from reaching 50% in the latest Ogden and Fry poll.

Rahm Emanuel (D-inc) 49%
Jesus Chuy Garcia (D) 32%

This edition of the poll was done March 877 likely voters. A poll done 3/20 by the same pollster without “undecided” as a choice gave Emanuel a 56%-44% lead. The election is basically two weeks away and I would rather be in Emanuel’s position than Garcia’s at this point. Meanwhile in New York, Quinnipiac University shows what an absolute disaster a Ted Cruz nomination would be for Republicans. No Republican comes close to Hillary Clinton, but Cruz does the worst, only managing to reach 27% against Clinton.

Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
Chris Christie (R) 34%

Hillary Clinton (D) 59%
Rand Paul (R) 31%

Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
Mike Huckabee (R) 29%

Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
Jeb Bush (R) 30%

Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
Marco Rubio (R) 31%

Hillary Clinton (D) 60%
Ted Cruz (R) 27%

Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
Scott Walker (R) 31%

Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
George Pataki (R) 34%

This poll was done March 11-16 among 1228 registered voters.

And So It Begins….

I just hope Republican voters are not too stupid to nominate this man to be the face of their party….

Posted by Dave at 7:42 am
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March 20, 2015

Walker Leads GOP Field in GA

In honor of Georgia State’s upset victory yesterday, we have a new poll from Insider Advantage for the state of Georgia that shows Scott Walker leading the GOP field.

Scott Walker 27%
Mike Huckabee 20%
Ben Carson 13%
Jeb Bush 11%
Marco Rubio 6%
Rick Perry 4%
Donald Trump 4%
Rand Paul 3%
Chris Christie 3%

This poll was done March 17-18 among 483 likely primary voters.

March 18, 2015

Bush/Walker Top GOP Field

Last night before I went to bed, all I heard from the talking heads on CNN, MSNBC and even Fox News was that the race in Israel was “too close to call”. This morning, the headline in The Washington Post website from page: “Netanyahu wins decisive victory in Israeli election”. The headline at The New York Times: “Netanyahu Soundly Defeats Chief Rival”. How on earth did it go from “too close to call” to such a resounding victory? other than the media’s wishful thinking? The biggest loser, however, is obviously Barack Obama.

Meanwhile, after badly reading the electorate in Israel, CNN has released a new poll for the race here in the US and it shows the usual top two on the Republican side.

Jeb Bush 16%
Scott Walker 13%
Rand Paul 12%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Ben Carson 9%
Chris Christie 7%
Marco Rubio 7%
Ted Cruz 4%
RicK Perry 4%
John Kasich 2%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Carly Fiorina 0%

Hillary Clinton 62%
Joe Biden 15%
Elizabeth Warren 10%
Bernie Sanders 3%
James Webb 1%
Martin O’Malley 1%

Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
Jeb Bush (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
Chris Christie (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
Marco Rubio (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
Mike Huckabee (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
Rand Paul (R) 43%

Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
Ben Carson (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
Scott Walker (R) 40%

I see Martin O’Malley is taking absolutely zero advantage from Hillary Clinton’s troubles. This poll was done March 13-15.

March 17, 2015

Israeli Election Thread

The polls will be closing in Israel at 4pm today. It sounds like we will get a bunch of exit polling, but in reality the results will not be known until tomorrow likely and unlike here, seats are allocated based on the nationwide vote, not by individual seats.

Posted by Dave at 4:00 pm
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