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March 24, 2019

Buttigieg Surges In IA

Emerson College has continued their torrid pace of releasing polls with a new one from the state of Iowa today showing a surge for Pete Buttigieg among Democrats.

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Bernie Sanders (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 54%
Kamala Harris (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 49%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 52%
Cory Booker (D) 48%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Bernie Sanders (D) 45%
Howard Schultz (I) 8%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%
Howard Schultz (I) 7%

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (Emerson)
Joe Biden 26%
Bernie Sanders 26%
Pete Buttigieg 11%
Kamala Harris 10%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Cory Booker 6%
Beto O’Rourke 5%

Amy Klobuchar 2%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Julian Castro 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Andrew Yang 0%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%

This poll was done March 21-24 among 707 registered voters. Earlier this morning Fox News released a poll for the national races.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Fox News)
Joe Biden 31%
Bernie Sanders 23%
Kamala Harris 8%
Beto O’Rourke 8%
Cory Booker 4%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Kirsten Gillibrand 2%
Pete Buttigieg 1%
Julian Castro 1%
Bill de Blasio 1%
John Delaney 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Amy Klobuchar 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
Michael Bennet 0%
Steve Bullock 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%
Terry McAuliffe 0%
Eric Swalwell 0%
John Hickenlooper 0%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Fox News)
Joe Biden (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

Bernie Sanders (D) 44%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%
Kamala Harris (D) 39%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 40%

This poll was done March 17-20 among 1002 registered voters.

March 20, 2019

Biden/Sanders Tied Nationally

Emerson College has put out a new national poll today that shows Bernie Sanders moving into a tie with Joe Biden in the national Democratic primary race.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 55%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

Bernie Sanders (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Kamala Harris (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 49%

Joe Biden (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%
Howard Schultz (I) 4%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 44%
Howard Schultz (I) 10%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Bernie Sanders 26%
Joe Biden 26%
Kamala Harris 12%
Beto O’Rourke 11%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Pete Buttigieg 3%
Cory Booker 3%
Amy Klobuchar 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Julian Castro 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%

This poll was done March 17-18 among 998 registered voters.

Biden Leads Sanders By 8% Nationally

CNN has come out with a new national primary poll on the Democratic side that shows Joe Biden still pacing the field with Bernie Sanders in second.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (CNN)
Joew Biden 28%
Bernie Sanders 20%
Kamala Harris 12%
Beto O’Rourke 11%
Elizabeth Warren 6%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Cory Booker 3%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Julian Castro 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%
John Delany 0%
Terry McAuliffe 0%
Steve Bullock 0%

This poll was done March 14-17 among 456 registered Democratic primary voters.

Posted by Dave at 9:42 am
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March 17, 2019

Biden Leads Trump By 8% in WI, Sanders Leads Dem Primary By 15%

Emerson Polling has released a new poll in the state of Wisconsin that shows, as seems to be the norm, Democrats have the best chance of picking off some of the states Trump won in 2016 if Joe Biden is their nominee.

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 54%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Bernie Sanders (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

Kamala Harris (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

Beto O’Rourke (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Amy Klobuchar (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%

Joe Biden (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%
Howard Schultz (I) 4%

Bernie Sanders (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Howard Schultz (I) 5%

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Bernie Sanders 39%
Joe Biden 24%
Elizabeth Warren 14%
Beto O’Rourke 6%
Kamala Harris 5%
Amy Klobuchar 4%
Cory Booker 2%
Andrew Yang 1%
Pete Buttigieg 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
John Hickenlooper 0%
Jay Inslee 0%
Julian Castro 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN – GOP PRIMARY (Emerson)
Donald Trump (inc) 89%
Bill Weld 11%

This poll was done March 15-17 among 775 registered voters.

March 12, 2019

Dems Lead Trump in MI, Sanders Within 3% Of Biden Nationally

Emerson College has a new poll for the state of Michigan that shows Donald Trump may have a hard time holding this state in 2020 if Joe Biden gets the Democratic nomination.

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 54%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Bernie Sanders (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Kamala Harris (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Amy Klobuchar (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Joe Biden (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%
Howard Schultz (I) 4%

Bernie Sanders (D) 495
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Howard Schultz (I) 6%

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Joe Biden 40%
Bernie Sanders 23%
Kamala Harris 12%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Cory Booker 3%
Beto O’Rourke 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Jay Inslee 0%
Pete Buttigieg 0%
Julian Castro 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN – GOP PRIMARY (Emerson)
Donald Trump (inc) 895
Bill Weld 11%

US SENATE – MICHIGAN (Emerson)
Gary Peters (D-inc) 44%
John james (R) 43%

This poll was done March 7-10 among 743 registered voters. Meanwhile at the national level, Monmouth University shows a tightening race in the Democratic primary.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Joe Biden 28%
Bernie Sanders 25%
Kamala Harris 10%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Beto O’Rourke 6%
Cory Booker 5%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Michael Bloomberg 2%
Sherrod Brown 1%
Bill De Blasio 1%
Andrew yang 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Julian Castro 1%
Michael Bennet 0%
Pete Buttigieg 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%
Jay Inslee 0%
Eric Holder 0%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Terry McAuliffe 0%
Marianne Williamson 0%
Steve Bullock 0%
John Delaney 0%

And for the first test that I am aware of to include my Governor Larry Hogan against Trump.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Donald Trump (inc) 74%
Bill Weld 18%

Donald Trump (inc) 75%
Larry Hogan 17%

Considering I wrote his name in for the General Election in 2016, I’d have no problem voting for him in a GOP primary in 2020 if his name was actually there. This poll was done March 1-4 among 746 registered voters.

March 9, 2019

Sanders Surges Against Biden, O’Rourke Falls Back in IA

CNN and The Des Moines Register have put out a new poll for the Democratic caucus in Iowa and it shows Joe Biden’s lead shrinking down to 2% over Bernie Sanders while nobody else even gets to double digits.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (CNN/DMR)
Joe Biden 27%
Bernie Sanders 25%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Kamala Harris 7%
Beto O’Rourke 5%
Cory Booker 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Michael Bennet 1%
Steve Bullock 1%
Pete Buttigieg 1%
John Delaney 1%
Julian Castro 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%
Erc Swalwell 0%
John Hickenlooper 0%
Marianne Williamson 0%
Andrew Yang 0%

I am starting to become surprised at how fast the campaigns of Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rurke and even Kirsten Gillibrand have completely stalled. Gillibrand stuck at 0% after being in the race for about seven weeks has to be devastating for her. This poll was done March 3-6 among 400 likely caucus goers.

March 3, 2019

Biden Dominates Dems in SC, Trump Leads General Election

Joe Biden dominates the Democratic field in South Carolina according to a new poll from Emerson College.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Joe Biden 37%
Bernie Sanders 21%
Kamala Harris 9%
Cory Booker 6%
Elizabeth Warren 5%
Beto O’Rourke 5%
Kirsten Gillibrand 3%
Michael Bloomberg 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Amy Klobuchar 1%
Sherrod Brown 1%
Pete Buttigieg 0%
John Delaney 0%
Julian Castro 0%

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – GOP PRIMARY (Emerson)
Donald Trump (inc) 90%
Bill Weld 10%

Trump does lead everyone in the General Election in South Carolina, as he should if he hopes to win re-election.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA (Emerson)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 52%
Joe Biden (D) 48%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 52%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 54%
Bernie Sanders (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 54%
Cory Booker (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 56%
Kamala Harris (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 56%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 56%
Amy Klobuchar (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 53%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 41%
Howard Schultz (I) 7%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Bernie Sanders (D) 42%
Howard Schultz (I) 7%

This poll was done February 28-March 2 among 755 registered voters.

February 28, 2019

Sanders Leads Biden By 4%, Trump Leads Kasich By 41% in NH

We have a second poll in a row from the state of New Hampshire showing Bernie Sanders now ahead of Joe Biden in the Democratic primary race for President according to a new poll from the University of New Hampshire.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (UNH)
Bernie Sanders 26%
Joe Biden 22%
Kamala Harris 10%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Beto O’Rourke 5%
Amy Klobuchar 4%
Cory Booker 3%
Pete Buttigieg 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Michael Bloomberg 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Sherrod Brown 1%
John Delaney 0%
John Hickenloopoer 0%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (Emerson)
Donald Trump (inc) 68%
John Kasich 17%
Bill Weld 3%

This poll was done February 18-26 among 218 likely Republican primary voters and 240 likely Democratic primary voters.

Trump Below 50% Against Dems in TX

Quinnipiac University has put out a poll today for the state of Texas showing Donald Trump below 50% against a slew of Democratic candidates.

PRESIDENT – TEXAS (Quinnipiac)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Joe Biden (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Bernie Sanders (D) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Julian Castro (D) 41%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Kamala Harris (D) 41%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 41%

In the US Senate race, should Beto O’Rourke decide to challenge John Cornyn instead, they would start out tied.

US SENATE – TEXAS (Quinnipiac)
John Cornyn (R-inc) 46%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 46%

This poll was done February 20-25 among 1222 registered voters. For Quinnipiac’s most recent record in Texas, in their final poll before the 2018 elections, they had Ted Cruz up 51%-46% over Beto O’Rourke (it ended up 51%-48%) and Greg Abbott up 54%-40% over Lupe Valdez (it ended up 56%-43%).

February 23, 2019

Sanders Leads Biden By 2% in NH

We have a new poll from Emerson College for the state of New Hampshire that puts Bernie Sanders on top of Joe Biden by a couple of percentage points.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Bernie Sanders 27%
Joe Biden 25%
Kamala Harris 12%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Amy Klobuchar 8%
Beto O’Rourke 5%
Cory Booker 5%
Michael Bloomberg 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
John Delaney 1%
Pete Buttigieg 1%
Sherrod Brown 1%
Julian Castro 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (Emerson)
Donald Trump (inc) 82%
Bill Weld 18%

At the General Election level, The top Democrats all lead Trump in head-to-head match ups.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Emerson)
Elizabeth Warren (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

Bernie Sanders (D) 55%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

Joe Biden (D) 55%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

Kamala Harris (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

Cory Booker (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

With Howard Schultz in the General Election as a third candidate, it helps out Trump.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Emerson)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 44%
Howard Schultz (I) 12%

Bernie Sanders (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%
Howard Schultz (I) 10%

No Biden/Trump/Schultz three-way match up was included for some reason. Finally, a potential match up between the sitting Democratic US Senator and Republican Governor shows them in a dead heat tie should they face off.

US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Emerson)
Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc) 44%
Chris Sununu (R) 44%

This poll was done February 21-22 among

This poll was done February 7-15 among 337 likely Democratic primary voters.

GALLUP
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
RASMUSSEN REPORTS