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December 17, 2014

Another 2016 Presidential Primary Poll

Monmouth University is yet another polling organization that has decided to release a pre-Christmas national primary poll for the 2016 Presidential race for both the Republican and Democratic sides.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Mitt Romney 8%
Ben Carson 7%
Chris Christie 7%
Jeb Bush 6%
Ted Cruz 5%
Rand Paul 5%
Scott Walker 3%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Bobby Jindal 2%
Rick Perry 2%
Marco Rubio 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
Paul Ryan <1%
Mike Pence <1%
John Kasich <1%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL- DEM PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Hillary Clinton 48%
Elizabeth Warren 6%
Joe Biden 2%
Bernie Sanders 2%
Andrew Cuomo 1%

These polls were done December 10-14 and Monmouth points out they did not read the list of names, so everyone listed above was mentioned by a respondent. Poor Martin O’Malley….

December 16, 2014

Two More Polls Show Romney Leading GOP Field

Two more national presidential primary polls out today and we will start with the new numbers from Fox News.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Fox News)
Mitt Romney 19%
Jeb Bush 10%
Mike Huckabee 8%
Chris Christie 8%
Rand Paul 8%
Scott Walker 7%
Ben Carson 6%
Paul Ryan 6%
Ted Cruz 5%
Marco Rubio 4%
John Kasich 2%
Rick Perry 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Fox News)
Hillary Clinton 62%
Elizabeth Warren 12%
Joe Biden 10%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Andrew Cuomo 2%
Martin O’Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Fox News)
Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
Chris Christie (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Jeb Bush (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
John Kasich (R) 37%

Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Rand Paul (R) 40%

This poll was done December 7-9 among 1023 registered voters. Meanwhile, The Washington Post gives us their view of the GOP race only.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (ABC News/WaPo)
Mitt Romney 20%
Jeb Bush 10%
Rand Paul 9%
Paul Ryan 8%
Ted Cruz 7%
Mike Huckabee 6%
Chris Christie 6%
Ben Carson 6%
Scott Walker 5%
Marco Rubio 4%
Rick Perry 4%
Bobby Jindal 3%
John Kasich 2%
Rick Santorum 2%

This poll was done December 11-14 among Republican-leaning voters.

Posted by Dave at 9:47 pm
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Jeb Bush To Explore Run For President

As expected, his announcement from Facebook:

December 15, 2014

Hilary Leads GOP By Double Digits

The most disturbing numbers from the latest Marist College poll come in the form of this question and response asked off Republican primary voters:

WHAT COMES CLOSER TO YOUR OPINION? – GOP VOTERS ONLY
It’s more important to have a Republican nominee for president who will stand on conservative principles: 64%
It’s more important to have a Republican nominee for president who can win :33%

SO in other words, a majority of Republican voters still believe it is better to “send a message” than actually win. This is why we almost end up with people like Rick Santorum as the face of the Republican Party. Here are the election numbers from Marist College.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Marist)
Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
Jeb Bush (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
Rand Paul (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
Chris Christie (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
Mitt Romney (R) 41%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Marist)
Mitt Romney 19%
Jeb Bush 14%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Chris Christie 9%
Ben Carson 8%
Rand Paul 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
Rick Perry 4%
Rick Santorum 3%
Paul Ryan 3%
Scott Walker 3%
Marco Rubio 3%
John Kasich 2%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Carly Fiorina 1%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Marist)
Hillary Clinton 62%
Joe Biden 11%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Bernie Sanders 4%
Martin O’Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%

This poll was done December 3-9 among 923 registered voters.

Open Thread Monday

Is everyone as excited abut Jeb Bush potentially running for President as I am?

December 14, 2014

2014 Week 15 NFL Picks

Before we get to this week’s picks, a quick look at how I did last week. My picks are listed first.

WEEK 14 WINNERS
Dallas beat Chicago
Detroit beat Tampa Bay
Minnesota beat N.Y.Jets
St. Louis beat Washington
Baltimore beat Miami
Indianapolis beat Cleveland
Houston beat Jacksonville
Arizona beat Kansas City
Denver beat Buffalo
N.Y. Giants beat Tennessee
New England beat San Diego
Green Bay beat Atlanta

WEEK 14 LOSERS
New Orleans lost to Carolina
Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh
Philadelphia lost to Seattle
San Francisco lost to Oakland

A 12-4 record last week brings my season record to 134-73 and in the middle of the pack among the so-called experts at ESPN.

SO-CALLED ESPN EXPERTS
Cris Carter 145-62
Tom Jackson 143-64
KC Joyner 141-66
Ron Jaworksi 139-68
Seth Wickersham 137-70
Eric Allen 136-71
ME 134-73
Mark Schlereth 131-76
Mike Golic 129-78
Keyshawn Johnson 128-79
Adam Schefter 128-79
Mike Ditka 125-82
Merrill Hoge 125-82
Cris Mortensen 123-84

Now without further ado, The Hedgehog Report picks for Week 15 of the NFL season.

WEEK 15 NFL PICKS
Arizona at St. Louis
Houston at Indianapolis
Green Bay at Buffalo
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Jacksonville at Baltimore
Washington at N.Y. Giants
Miami at New England
Oakland at Kansas City
Denver at San Diego
N.Y. Jets at Tennessee
San Francisco at Seattle
Minnesota at Detroit
Dallas at Philadelphia
New Orleans at Chicago

Ravens in control of their own destiny as far as the playoffs are concerned.

December 11, 2014

Presidential Polls for NC and NJ

in addition to the state of Florida, we also received new Presidential polling for two other states today and we will start with Public Policy Polling’s view of the race in North Carolina.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
Jeb Bush (R) 46%
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%

Ben Carson (R) 44%
Hillary Clinton (D) 44%

Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
Chris Christie (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Mike Huckabee (R) 44%

Ben Carson (R) 45%
Joe Biden (D) 40%

Jeb Bush (R) 47%
Joe Biden (D) 42%

Jeb Bush (R) 46%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 39%

Ben Carson (R) 44%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 37%

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Ben Carson 19%
Jeb Bush 15%
Mike Huckabee 14%
Chris Christie 14%
Paul Ryan 11%
Rick Perry 7%
Ted Cruz 5%
Rand Paul 5%
Marco Rubio 4%

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (PPP)
Hillary Clinton 52%
Joe Biden 18%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Bernie Sanders 5%
Andrew Cuomo 4%
Jim Webb 2%
Martin O’Malley 1%
Brian Schweitzer 0%

This poll was done December 4-7 among 823 registered voters. This morning, I missed the new poll from Quinnipiac University for the state of New Jersey.

PRESIDENT – NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac)
Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Chris Christie (R) 39%

Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
Jeb Bush (R) 31%

Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
Rand Paul (R) 31%

Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
Mitt Romney (R) 35%

This poll was done December 3-8 among 1340 registered voters.

Bush Leads Hillary in FL

St. Leo University, yesterday, came out with a new poll on the Presidential race in Florida and it shows Jeb Bush as the only candidate who was ahead of Hillary Clinton and a head-to-head match up.

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (SLU)
Jeb Bush (R) 43%
Hillary Clinton (D) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Rand Paul (R) 34%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Chris Christie (R) 37%

Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Ted Cruz (R) 28%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Marco Rubio (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Mitt Romney (R) 41%

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA – GOP PRIMARY (SLU)
Jeb Bush 34%
Mitt Romney 15%
Marco Rubio 10%
Ben Carson 8%
Chris Christie 7%
Scott Walker 3%
Ted Cruz 2%
John Kasich 2%
John Bolton 2%
Mike Huckabee 1%
Boby Jindal 1%
Peter King 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Rick Perry 1%
Paul Ryan 1%
Rob Portman 0%
Mike Pence 0%
Rick Santorum 0%

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA – DEM PRIMARY (SLU)
Hillary Clinton 63%
Joe Biden 8%
Elizabeth Warren 6%
John Hickenlooper 2%
Martin O’Malley 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Deval Patrick 1%
Andrew Cuomo 1%
Brian Schweitzer 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Amy Klobuchar 0%
Jim Webb 0%
Corey Booker 0%
Bernie Sanders 0%

It is hard to believe the pollster took all that time to read 18 names for the primary poll. This poll was done November 25 through December 7 among 420 likely voters.

December 10, 2014

GOP Starts With Leads in NC-Gov and NC-Sen Races

A little history about Public Policy Polling. In their final release before the 2014 election, PPP has this to say about the race in North Carolina:

In the North Carolina Senate race Kay Hagan leads Thom Tillis 46/44, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 5%. PPP has polled this contest four times over the last two weeks and found Hagan leading by 3, 1, 1, and now 2. When you take Haugh out of the picture Hagan still leads Tillis by 2 points at 48/46- he is not really playing the spoiler role now that he was earlier in the campaign. This continues to be a race featuring two unpopular candidates, but as has been the case all year Tillis’ numbers are worse than Hagan’s. Her approval is 41/49, his favorability is 36/48.

As we now know, Tillis actually won this race 49-47 with Haugh not even reaching 4% of the vote. This represented an almost 4% bias in the Democrats’ favor in the final poll versus final result. It is with that in mind that we look at PPP’s first post-2014 election look at the 2016 statewide races in North Carolina.

GOVERNOR – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
Pat McCrory (R-inc) 46%
Roy Cooper (D) 39%

Pat McCrory (R-inc) 47%
Janet Cowell (D) 36%

Pat McCrory (R-inc) 48%
Anthony Foxx (D) 34%

Roy Cooper (D) 41%
Phil Berger (R) 35%

Janet Cowell (D) 38%
Phil Berger (R) 37%

Phil Berger (R) 39%
Anthony Foxx (D) 36%

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)

Richard Burr (R-inc) 46%
Kay Hagan (D) 43%

Richard Burr (R-inc) 44%
Janet Cowell (D) 38%

Richard Burr (R-inc) 44%
Anthony Foxx (D) 38%

Phil Berger (R) 45%
Kay Hagan (D) 43%

Phil Berger (R) 41%
Janet Cowell (D) 38%

Phil Berger (R) 40%
Anthony Foxx (D) 37%

This poll was done December 4-7 among 823 registered voters.

December 8, 2014

Bloomberg: Hillary Leads GOP

One thing left over from the Maryland GOP Convention that I forgot about until this morning. I ran into Brian Griffiths of Red Maryland at the Howard County GOP Welcome Reception and he told me my ploy to win the Red Maryland “Conservative of the Year” award for RINOs everywhere by stuffing the ballot box did not work. That is probably a good thing as if I had won the “Conservative of the Year” award, then your award system is probably flawed. That being said, and your votes managed to get me to 3rd place among the “People’s Voice”, which translated to 7th place overall in the final tally. The “People’s Voice” apparently only accounted for 20% of the vote according to the original rules. Not bad for a RINO and thanks for your votes, I think.

Bloomberg Politics teamed up with Selzer and Company to give us a new poll for the Presidential race and it shows Hilary Clinton with leads over various Republican candidates.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Bloomberg)
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Jeb Bush (R) 32%

Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
Chris Christie (R) 31%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Ted Cruz (R) 29%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Rand Paul (R) 33%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Mitt Romney (R) 37%

This poll was done December 3-5 among 753 likely voters.