5/13/2008
Open Thread 05/13/08
There had only been thirteen of these in Major League Baseball history. Last night was number fourteen.
Only 14 times in 100+ years of baseball…sort of like Hillary’s odds of winning the Democratic nomination at this point….
While the WV primary is tonight, don’t forget we also have the Special Election in the First District of Mississippi where Republicans will desperately be trying to hang on to another US House seat. The Democrat came within 0.56% of garnering 50% in the first round and winning the seat outright.
KY: McConnell With Double-Digit Leads
More from that Research 2000 poll from Kentucky, this time the US Senate race.
US SENATE - KENTUCKY
Mitch McConnell (R-inc) 48%
Bruce Lunsford (D) 36%Mitch McConnell (R-inc) 47%
Greg Fischer (D) 35%
This poll was done May 7-9 among 600 likely voters. The same poll yesterday showed Lunsford with a 20% lead over Fischer in the Democratic primary.
For more polls from Kentucky, click here.
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5/12/2008
Hillary Dominates KY, Obama Leads OR
Two new polls from Survey USA put Hillary well ahead of Barack Obama in Kentucky while Barack Obama holds a smaller lead, although still in double digits, in Oregon.
PRESIDENT - KENTUCKY - DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 62%
Barack Obama 30%PRESIDENT - OREGON - DEM PRIMARY
Barack Obama 54%
Hillary 43%
These polls were done Mary 9-11 among 641 likely voters in KY and 615 likely voters in OR. Seeing that she should romp in WV tomorrow night and holds a dominant lead in Kentucky, Hillary could put a serious chink in Obama’s armor should she want to by spending all her time in Oregon with the hopes maybe pulling out a victory. On the flip side, seems to me Obama needs to spend as much money in Oregon to make sure he wins big in Oregon and puts the Democratic race away….
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NC: McCain Leads Obama By 7%, Dole Leads Hagan by 5%
It looks like John McCain will have an easier time dispatching his Democratic opponent than sitting Senator will have dispatching hers. At least that is what the folks over at Public Policy Polling are claiming.
PRESIDENT - NORTH CAROLINA
John McCain (R) 49%
Barack Obama (D) 42%John McCain (R) 46%
Hillary (D) 38%US SENATE - NORTH CAROLINA
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc) 48%
Kay Hagan (D) 43%
This poll was done May 8-9 among 616 likely voters. For more polls from North Carolina, click here.
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WV: Hillary Ahead By 36%
The latest poll for tomorrow’s West Virginia primary from Suffolk University has Hillary with a 36% lead over Barack Obama.
PRESIDENT - WEST VIRGINIA - DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 60%
Barack Obama 24%
This is what the director of this poll said about these results.
“In 2000, Al Gore won seventy-two percent of West Virginia
Democratic Primary voters and lost the state’s general election to George
Bush by six percent; in 2004, John Kerry won sixty-nine percent of West
Virginia Democratic Primary voters and lost the state’s general election to
George Bush by thirteen percent. If Barack Obama can’t even garner thirty
percent of West Virginia Democratic Primary voters, what does that say
about the West Virginia general election?”
This poll was done May 10-11 among 600 likely voters. I assume we will get another poll from American Research Group before the day is done….
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KY: The Forthcoming Rout In Kentucky
Barack Obama may be the Democratic frontrunner for the nomination, but the Democratic voters in Kentucky have decided by an overwhelming margin that they would rather see Hillary as the nominee. That is what a new poll from Research 2000 says.
PRESIDENT - KENTUCKY - DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 58%
Barack Obama 31%
At the General election stage, John McCain leads the assumed Democratic nominee by 25%.
PRESIDENT - KENTUCKY - GENERAL
John McCain (R) 58%
Barack Obama (D) 33%John McCain (R) 53%
Hillary (D) 41%
This poll was done May 7-9 among 500 likely voters. The article for the poll also indicates results will be released for the US Senate race in Kentucky.
For more polls from Kentucky, click here.
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5/11/2008
Mothers Day Open Thread
Happy Mothers Day to all the Moms out there, especially to my Mom who I grow to love and appreciate more every day….
5/10/2008
WV: Hillary Crushing Obama By 43%
Here is yet another poll, this time from American Research Group, that shows Barack Obama is about to get his posterior handed to him in the state of West Virginia.
PRESIDENT - WEST VIRGINIA - DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 66%
Barack Obama 23%
So if John McCain not getting 23%-27% of the vote in North Carolina and Indiana is supposedly some sort of repudiation of the presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, what should we call a 43% defeat for the supposed presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama?
This poll was done May 7-8 among 600 likely voters.
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How Many States Are There?
He must be including Cananda….
Now I realize he misspoke and most like meant “forty-seven”, not “fifty-seven”, as he is talking about the 48 contiguous states. But Democrats like to jump on John McCain every time he makes a slip of the tongue, so turnabout is fair play….
Of course, I am sure Hillary would like it if there a few extra states to help her catch up….
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5/9/2008
Presidential Polls Form MI, OR, VA and NC
Here is something to take with you into the weekend. If you read the comments below, in addition to having a lot of time on your hands, you may have already seen these polls. Here are new Presidential poll results from Scott Rasmussen for the states of Oregon, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia.
PRESIDENT - OREGON
Clinton (D) 46%
McCain (R) 40%Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 38%PRESIDENT - MICHIGAN
McCain (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 44%McCain (R) 45%
Obama (D) 44%PRESIDENT - VIRGINIA
McCain (R) 47%
Clinton (D) 41%McCain (R) 47%
Obama (D) 44%PRESIDENT - NORTH CAROLINA
McCain (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 40%McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 45%
The NC and VA polls were done May 8th and the MI and OR polls were done May 7th, all among 500 likely voters.
these numbers do change the Electoral College Watch in opposing directions. Hillary pickups Michigan and extends her lead to 290-248 over McCain. On the flip side, giving Michigan to McCain puts him over 300 electoral votes in his match up against Obama.
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US Senate Polls From VA, OR, MI and NC
Scott Rasmussen released new polls for the US Senate races in Virginia, Oregon, Michigan and North Carolina that are not great news for Republicans. First, no surprise that Carl Levin will have no problem keeping his seat in Michigan.
US SENATE - MICHIGAN
Carl Levin (D-inc) 54%
Jack Hoogendyk (R) 37%
Hoogendyk is a member of the Michigan House of Representatives. Also no surprise that Democrat Mark Warner is having no problems in Virginia in his battle against Jim Gilmore.
US SENATE - VIRGINIA
Mark Warner (D) 55%
Jim Gilmore (R) 37%
Gilmore has never been closer than 16% in any poll out of Virginia. moving to two GOP incumbents, Oregon Senator Gordon Smith is barely ahead of his Democratic challengers while Elizabeth Dole is shown 1% behind in North Carolina.
US SENATE - OREGON
Gordon Smith (R-inc) 45%
Jeff Merkley (D) 42%Gordon Smith (R-inc) 47%
Steve Novick (D) 41%US SENATE - NORTH CAROLINA
Kay Hagan (D) 48%
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc) 47%
While it might seem easy to dismiss the NC poll, the same poll shows Republican Pat McCrory with a decent lead over Democrat Bev Perdue in the gubernatorial race.
GOVERNOR - NORTH CAROLINA
Pat McCrory (R) 45%
Bev Perdue (D) 39%
The NC and VA polls were done May 8th while the MI and OR polls were done May 7th, all among 500 likely voters in each state.
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The “Gutless Wonders”
After listening to the three liberal hosts of Morning Joe (including the increasingly liberal Tiki Barber) whine and complain that Hillary is destroying the Democratic Party by refusing to drop out of the Democratic race, Pat Buchanan chimed in (and was backed up by the liberal Mike Barnicle of all people) and pointed out that if the Democrats are worried about long-term damage to the party and want to end the primary and force Hillary out, they could do it today. The Super Delegates, which Pat Buchanan referred to as “gutless wonders”, are the true people who are doing the long-term damage to the party with their own refusal to declare their support for Obama and make it mathematically impossible for Hillary to win. According to the latest numbers at Real Clear Politics, Obama has 1852 total delegates. There are roughly 250 super delegates left who have not declared. He needs 2025 total delegates for the nomination. The math is there for this race to be ended today if the Super Delegates would make their damn decision….
I know I have seen numerous articles and watched numerous reports over the past few months about how there are supposedly large chunks of “super delegates” who are poised to support Barack Obama after the “upcoming primary”, yet every primary passes and we never actually see them come out and give their support to him in large enough numbers to end things. So why should Hillary drop out? There was a new poll from a Democratic polling firm that shows Hillary leading Barack Obama by a ridiculous 40% (63%-23%) in West Virginia. Polls in Kentucky show similar numbers with Hillary crushing Obama. So if Hillary is still winning these states by these huge margins and the “Super Delegates” refuse to come out in large enough numbers to mathematically give Obama the nomination regardless of what happens, then what incentive is there for Hillary to drop out?
Pat Buchanan has it right, the problem is not Hillary staying in the race - the problem is the “gutless wonders” (in Buchanan’s words) who refuse to end this race when they have every ability to do it by throwing their support to Obama today. And I agree….
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5/8/2008
MO: McCain Retakes Lead Over Hillary
A new poll from Scott Rasmussen has John McCain retaking the lead in the state of Missouri over Hillary, which is probably pointless now since Barack Obama is most likely to be the nominee.
PRESIDENT - MISSOURI
McCain (R) 47%
Obama (D) 41%McCain (R) 45%
Hillary (D) 43%
Meanwhile, the Governor’s seat in Missouri is as good as gone for Republicans.
GOVERNOR - MISSOURI
Jay Nixon (D) 51%
Kenny Hulshof (R) 35%Jay Nixon (D) 51%
Sarah Steelman (R) 35%
Both these polls were done May 6th among 500 likely voters.
The Presidential poll result does move the state of Missouri back into John McCain’s column and moves him to within 8 electoral votes of Hillary, 273-265. McCain still leads Obama by a 284-254 margin.
For more polls from Missouri, click here.
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GA: McCain, Chambliss Cruising
One state Republicans should have no problems in is the state of Georgia. The latest Presidential poll has John McCain ahead of both Democrats by double digits.
PRESIDENT - GEORGIA
McCain (R) 53%
Obama (D) 39%McCain (R) 48%
Hillary (D) 37%
In the US Senate race, Saxby Chambliss will have no problems keeping his seat.
US SENATE - GEORGIA
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc) 51%
Dale Cardwell (D) 37%Saxby Chambliss (R-inc) 58%
Vernon Jones (D) 30%Saxby Chambliss (R-inc) 54%
Jim Martin (D) 33%
These polls were done May 6th among 500 likely voters.
For more polls from Georgia, click here.
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Open Thread Thursday!
Sorry, I thought I put this up earlier this morning, but alas I forgot….
My final “CD I Can’t Believe I Actually Own” is actually an album that came out before CDs were around.
I also own the original vinyl record when this first came out. At some point when I was still a wrestling fan, I purchased the WWF entrance music Volume II and III because, well it seemed cool at the time. Of course I couldn’t be without the complete set of WWF Entrance music in CDs. So despite already having the vinyl record, I bought the CD anyway…. Oh, and a political connection, if you watch through the entire video, you will see an appearance by the former Governor Minnesota….
It is starting to dawn on me that the polling is going to become much more sparse in the coming months. Sure we will get a bunch of General election polls here and there, but nowhere near the clip that we have been getting them at in recent months. I guess I am going to have to find something else to talk about….
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