Going to keep things simple again this morning….

One poll so far today from Scott Rasmussen and the state of Nebraska where Mitt Romney holds a 14% lead over Barack Obama.

PRESIDENT – NEBRASKA (Rasmussen)
Mitt Romney (R) 53%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 39%

This poll was done May 16th among 500 likely voters. It would be interesting to see if Romney will win the one congressional district Obama won last time around this year.

Mitt Romney is out with his first General Election advertisement and he starts out on a positive note.

No real polling worth mentioning this morning. Enjoy your Friday morning…will be back as polls come in….

One polling organization we have not heard a lot from this election season is Mason-Dixon, but today they have come out with a new poll they did with Ron Sachs Communications showing Mitt Romney leading the national race over Barack Obama.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Mason-Dixon)
Mitt Romney (R) 47%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 44%

This poll was done May 10-14 among 1000 likely voters. On the flipside, Investor’s Business Daily and TIPP have a poll showing Obama ahead by 3% although with many more undecided voters.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 43%
Mitt Romney (R) 40%

This poll was done May 9-16 among 778 registered voters.

Scott Rasmussen brings some good news from the state of Nebraska where he shows newly minted nominee Deb Fischer with a sizable lead over Bob Kerrey.

US SENATE – NEBRASKA (Rasmussen)
Deb Fischer (R) 56%
Bob Kerrey (D) 38%

This poll was done May 16th among 500 likely voters. That makes me feel a little better about this race. Meanwhile in North Carolina, Rasmussen puts Republican Pat McCrory ahead of Walter Dalton by 9% in the gubernatorial race there.

GOVERNOR – NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen)
Pat McCrory (R) 50%
Walter Dalton (D) 41%

This poll was done May 14th among 500 likely voters. Public Policy Polling has come out with more numbers from their New Hampshire poll claiming the two congressional seats held by Republicans are in danger of flipping to the Democrats.

US HOUSE – NEW HAMPSHIRE – CD1 (PPP)
Carol Shea-Porter (D) 47%
Frank Guinta (R-inc) 43%

US HOUSE – NEW HAMPSHIRE – CD2 (PPP)
Ann McLane Kuster (D) 42%
Charlie Bass (R-inc) 42%

One thing to keep in mind, these results come from the same poll that showed Barack Obama leading New Hampshire by 12%. This poll was done May 10-13 among 502 registered voters in District 1 and 642 registered voters in District 2.

The wild swings in poll continued last night. On the same day we were getting Fox News to tell us Barack Obama leads the national race by 7%, we have two more national polls out, both putting Mitt Romney in front of Barack Obama. The first comes from The Washington Times and JZ Analytics.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (WaTi/JZ)
Mitt Romney (R) 44%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 43%

This poll was done May11-12 among 800 registered voters. Also out with a Romney-leaning poll was YouGov.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (YouGov)
Mitt Romney (R) 46%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 42%

This poll was done May 12-14 among 1000 adults, although the above numbers were apparently done among registered voters only. This election cycle, no matter who your candidate is, there seems to be a poll out there that will make you both happy and sad on the same day….

The polling this year we have seen continues to just be flat out odd. This week we have seen two of the most liberal news organizations in the country, CBS News and The New York Times, release a poll showing Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by 3% and two polls in the last two days claiming the presidential race in Wisconsin is within a single percentage point. With that as a back drop, Fox News, a news organization that is clearly more to the right of other news organizations, comes along and releases a poll showing Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by 7%.

PRESIDNET – NATIONAL (Fox News)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 46%
Mitt Romney (R) 39%

This poll also brings back the “gender gap”, claiming Obama leads Romney by 22% among women. Remember, CBS News and The New York Times claim Romney actually leads among women. How can two polling organizations claiming to be polling the same country accurately come up with two polls showing such a ridiculous disparity in their results. This poll was done May 13-15 among 913 registered voters.

Meanwhile in New Hampshire, it looks like Republicans may have a chance of picking up the gubernatorial seat in new Hampshire f they nominate Ovide Lamontagne, which according to the poll of the primary, seems likely.

GOVERNOR – NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP)

Ovide Lamontagne (R) 38% Jackie Cilley (D) 38% Ovide Lamontagne (R) 40% Maggie Hassan (D) 39%

Jackie Cilley (D) 37% Kevin Smith (R) 32% Maggie Hassan (D) 37% Kevin Smith (R) 31%

GOVERNOR – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Ovide Lamontagne 53%
Kevin Smith 13%

GOVERNOR – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (PPP)
Maggie Hassan 23%
Jackie Cilley 20%

This poll was done May 10-13 among 1163 registered voters.

The Marquette Law School Twitter feed is reporting the following poll numbers for their new poll of the gubernatorial race in Wisconsin.

GOVERNOR – WISCONSIN (Marquette)
Scott Walker (R-inc) 50%
Tom Barrett (D) 44%

Right now it seems as if they are only reporting these numbers at their Twitter feed, but the eventually full poll with dates and number of voters should be posted here.

It is becoming expected almost every week now – Scott Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling release polls for the same race taken at about the same time and manage to come up with entirely different results. Today’s contradictory polls come from the state of North Carolina where Rasmussen puts Romney up by 8% while PPP continues to show Barack Obama leading.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen)
Mitt Romney (R) 51%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 43%

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Mitt Romney (R) 47%

The Rasmussen poll was done May 14th among 500 likely voters. The PPP poll was done May 10-13 among 666 registered voters. This contradiction has even led PPP to take a swipe at Rasmussen on their Twitter feed. Yes, we now even have trash talking between polling organizations….

Meanwhile, Marquette Law School is supposed to be releasing new polling today for the gubernatorial race in Wisconsin beginning at 1:15 today.

I have a feeling today is going to be one of those days…I turned on the bathroom sink to let the water heat up, walked away, and next thing I know water is overflowing the sink bowl onto the floor…probably the way Jon Bruning feels this morning after being upset by Deb Fischer in the Republican primary for the US Senate from Nebraska….

Quinnipiac University put out a new poll for the state of New Jersey showing Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 10%.

PRESIDENT – NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 39%

Obama/Biden (D-inc) 50%
Romney/Christie (R) 42%

US SENATE – NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac)
Bob Menendez (D-inc) 45%
Joe Kyrillos (R) 35%

This poll was done May 9-14 among 1592 registered voters.