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March 5, 2015

Portman/Strickland Tied in OH

Public Policy Polling is back to taking money from the Ohio Democratic Party to produce polls that would seem to be favorable towards Democrats.

PRESIDENT – OHIO (PPP)
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Jeb Bush (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Scott Walker (R) 41%

US SENATE – OHIO (PPP)
Rob Portman (R-inc) 45%
Ted Strickland (D) 45%

Rob Portman (R-inc) 50%
PG Sittenfeld (D) 31%

This poll was done March 2-3 among 936 registered voters.

Walker Leads GOP, But Bush Is Strongest Against Clinton

Chris Van Hollen has thrown his name in to the US Senate race in Maryland. I am not surprised as he is probably boxed out of rising too high in the US House leadership as long as Steny Hoyer is Minority Whip. I am not sure if there is a protocol, but I would expect have two Marylanders in the Democratic leadership at the same time would be considered unlikely, so Van Hollen might believe his better shot at advancement is moving over to the US Senate. It seems he is taking the approach Kamala Harris took in California – get his name in there before others have a chance to decide and suck up all the press with the hope of scaring anyone else from making their own challenge.

This morning, Quinnipiac University released a new national poll showing Jeb Bush as the Republican’s strongest candidate against Hillary Clinton while Scott Walker is shown as near the weakest, with only Ted Cruz being weaker.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Quinnipiac)
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Jeb Bush (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Chris Christie (R) 39%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Rand Paul (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Mike Huckabee (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Marco Rubio (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Scott Walker (R) 39%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Ted Cruz (R) 38%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Quinnipiac)
Scott Walker 18%
Jeb Bush 16%
Mike Huckabee 8%
Chris Christie 8%
Ben Carson 7%
Ted Cruz 6%
Rand Paul 6%
Marco Rubio 5%
Bobby Jindal 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Lindsey Graham 1%
John Kasich 1%
Rick Perry 1%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Quinnipiac)
Hillary Clinton 56%
Elizabeth Warren 14%
Joe Biden 10%
Bernie Sanders 4%
James Webb 1%
Martin O’Malley 0%

This poll was done February 26-March 2 among 1286 registered voters. Martin O’Malley at 0%!

March 4, 2015

Townsend Running in MD? / Carson Best GOP Candidate Against Clinton in NC

If you need a good laugh this afternoon, this story from The Washington Post should give it to you:

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is the latest in a long list of possible contenders to consider a run for U.S. Senate after longtime Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) announced her retirement this week.

The former Maryland lieutenant governor said she has made inquiries and is talking to friends — including Mikulski — and supporters, but has not made a final decision about her candidacy.

“I am thinking about it,” Kennedy Townsend said. “I have always wanted to serve the people of Maryland.”

Even compared to the pathetic gubernatorial campaign that was run by the Democratic ticket Anthony Brown and Ken Ulman last year, Townsend’s 2002 campaign in my mind is still the worst statewide campaign I have ever witnessed in my lifetime in the state of Maryland. The fact that she thinks she would have any chance whatsoever of winning a nomination is mind boggling. Remember in 2002, the MD Democratic Party handed her the nomination when they basically told Martin O’Malley to “wait his turn”.

In North Carolina, Public Policy Polling claims Ben Carson is the best candidate Republicans could put up against Hillary Clinton.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Jeb Bush 42%

Jeb Bush (R) 47%
Joe Biden (D) 40%

Jeb Bush (R) 44%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 38%

Ben Carson (R) 46%
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Chris Christie (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Ted Cruz (R) 43%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Mike Huckabee (R) 46%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Rand Paul (R) 43%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Rick Perry (R) 44%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Scott Walker (R) 43%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Marco Rubio (R) 42% /font>

This poll was done February 24-26 among 849 registered voters.

Bush/Walker Top GOP Field in Both SC and FL

It looks like the race for the Republican nomination is shaping up to be a battle between Jeb Bush and Scott Walker as a new poll from Gravis Marketing has the two of them at the top of the race in South Carolina.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – GOP PRIMARY (Gravis)
Jeb Bush 19%
Scott Walker 17%
Lindsey Graham 12%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Chris Christie 8%
Marco Rubio 6%
Rand Paul 6%
Ted Cruz 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Carly Fiorina 2%

Also out from Gravis Marketing is a new poll for the state of Florida showing Bush and Walker at the top here too.

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA – GOP PRIMARY (Gravis)
Jeb Bush 23%
Scott Walker 22%
Marco Rubio 11%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Ben Carson 8%
Chris Christie 6%
Rand Paul 5%
Ted Cruz 2%
Rick Perry 1%

Both polls were done February 24-25 among Republican primary voters. I am somewhat perplexed at the choice of candidates Gravis Marketing uses as they seem to be inconsistent from state-to-state. Why would you not include Ben Carson in a SC poll, but include him in a FL poll?

Posted by Dave at 8:02 am
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March 3, 2015

Carson Jumps In, McCrory/Burr Lead in NC

Earlier today we saw Martin O’Malley state he would not run for the US Senate in Maryland and then a little later, another potential candidate Ben Carson announced the opening of his Presidential Exploratory Committee.

Lovely…let the GOP Presidential circus begin….

We have a new poll from Public Policy Polling’s home state of North Carolina and the most interesting number that I see out of this poll is how poorly Kay Hagan runs against Richard Burr.

GOVERNOR – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
Pat McCrory (R-inc) 43%
Roy Cooper (D) 41%

Pat McCrory (R-inc) 44%
Ken Spaulding (D) 35%

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
Richard Burr (R-inc) 45%
Anthony Foxx (D) 36%

Richard Burr (R-inc) 50%
Kay Hagan (D) 43%

Richard Burr (R-inc) 45%
Allen Joines (D) 33%

This poll was done February 24-26 among 849 registered voters.

Clinton Leads Walker By 5%

Rasmussen Reports has put out a new national poll showing Scott Walker as the strongest candidate when compared to Jeb Bush and Ben Carson.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Rasmussen)
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Scott Walker (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Jeb Bush (R) 36%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Ben Carson (R) 36%

This poll was done February 28-March 1 among 1000 likely voters.

O’Malley Rules Out US Senate Run in MD

I must say that I am somewhat surprised that Martin O’Malley announced so quickly that he is not running for US Senate in Maryland. I guess the thinking has to be that he really thinks he either has a shot against Hillary Clinton or is angling for a future VP slot and having the idea that he might run for US Senate hanging out there hurts his chances for either spot.

March 2, 2015

WaPo: Barbara Mikulski Is Retiring

Martin O’Malley just might have gotten his excuse NOT to run for President…Barbara Mikulski is retiring.

You have to figure people have been waiting thirty years for this seat to open up. Not only Martin O’Malley, but Ben Carson and Bob Ehrlich at a minimum now have another alternative to running for President. On the Democratic side, you have to imagine anyone who ever thought of being Senator are going to want to take advantage of this open seat.

February 28, 2015

Reid Trails Laxalt, Krolicki in NV

I don’t know how I missed this earlier this week, but it gives me an excuse to finally post something after a few days. Here are the latest numbers from Gravis Marketing for the state of Nevada.

US SENATE- NEVADA (Gravis)
Adam Laxalt (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%

Brian Krolicki (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%

PRESIDENT – NEVADA (Gravis)
Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Rand Paul (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Jeb Bush (R) 37%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Scott Walker (R) 43%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Chris Christie (R) 38%

This poll was done February 21-22 among 955 registered voters.

February 25, 2015

Clinton Leads GOP Nationally

Public Policy Polling is out today with the General Election portion of their new poll and it has Hillary Clinton up between 7% and 10% over all the GOP candidates.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (PPP)
Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Rand Paul (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Rick Perry (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Marco Rubio (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Ben Carson (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Chris Christie (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Scott Walker (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Mike Huckabee (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Jeb Bush (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Ted Cruz (R) 40%

This poll was done February 20-22 among 691 registered voters.