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November 12, 2019

Edwards Leads Rispone By 2% in LA, Buttigieg Leads Dems in IA

We have new poll for the gubernatorial race in Louisiana that shows Democrat John Bel Edwards hanging on to a 25 lead over Republican Eddie Rispone as Republicans try to avoid losing a second gubernatorial race this year. This poll comes from Mason-Dixon.

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA (Mason-Dixon)
John Bel Edwards (D-inc) 48%
Eddie Rispone (R) 46%

This poll was done November 5-7 among 625 likely voters. Here is a listing of all the public polls I am aware of for this race.

Meanwhile in Iowa, a new poll from Monmouth University has Pete Buttigieg leading the Democratic field with Joe Biden in second.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (Monmouth)
Pete Buttigieg 22%
Joe Biden 19%
Elizabeth Warren 18%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Kamala Harris 3%
Tom Steyer 3%
Andrew Yang 3%
Cory Booker 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Everyone Else 1% or Less

This poll was done November 7-11 among 966 likely caucus goers.

Posted by Dave at 5:04 pm
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November 11, 2019

Biden Leads Dems in NH By 4%

It has been almost two months since there has been a poll in the state of New Hampshire that showed Joe Biden leading the Democratic field, but he finally got one this morning from Quinnipiac University.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (Quinnipiac)
Joe Biden 20%
Elizabeth Warren 16%
Pete Buttigieg 15%
Bernie Sanders 14%
Tulsi Gabbard 6%
Andrew Yang 4%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Andrew Steyer 3%
Everyone Else 1% or less

This poll was done November 6-10 among 1134 likely voters.

November 10, 2019

Bloomberg Leads Trump by 6% Nationally

We have a new poll from Morning Consult and Politico that shows how Michael Bloomberg compares to the other top Democrats against Donald Trump.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (MC/Politico)
Michael Bloomberg (D) 43%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 37%

Joe Biden (D) 44%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

Bernie Sanders (D) 45%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 39%

This poll was done November 8th among roughly 1300 likely voters.

November 5, 2019

Election Night Thread

Three big elections tonight that I am watching. Can Matt Bevin keep his seat as the Governor of Kentucky. Will Tate Reeves be able to hold off Jim Hood and keep this gubernatorial seat in GOP hands. And will Virginia turn the Senate and House of Delegates in Virginia over the Democrats where Republicans currently hold one-vote margins in both houses going into this election.

Current polling on the Kentucky and Mississippi aces can be found by clicking the states under the banner above.

November 4, 2019

Mixed Polls For Trump in Seven Swing States

If I am a Donald Trump fan, I am not too upset with the latest polls from The New York Times and Siena College that came out today.

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (NYT/Siena)
Joe Biden (D) 45%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Bernie Sanders (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 40%

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (NYT/Siena)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Joe Biden (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Bernie Sanders (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 44%

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (NYT/Siena)
Joe Biden (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
Bernie Sanders (D) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 46%

PRESIDENT – IOWA (NYT/Siena)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Joe Biden (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Bernie Sanders (D) 43%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 40%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Pete Buttigieg (D) 41%

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (NYT/Siena)
Joe Biden (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Bernie Sanders (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 42%

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (NYT/Siena)
Joe Biden (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Bernie Sanders (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%

PRESIDENT – PENSYLVANIA (NYT/Siena)
Joe Biden (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Bernie Sanders (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 44%

All these polls except IA were done starting October 13th and ending either October 23rd, 25th or 26th, depending on the state. The IA poll was done October 26-30 among 1422 likely voters

November 3, 2019

Biden Leads Trump in MI, Trump Leads Biden in NV

Just a weird combination of results from Emerson Polling for the states of Nevada and Michigan. While in the state of Nevada, Donald Trump holds a lead or is tied with the top Democrats in a state he lost in 2016, Democrats dominate Trump in Michigan where Trump won in 2016.

PRESIDENT – NEVADA (Emerson)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
Bernie Sanders (D) 50%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Joe Biden (D) 49%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 49%

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Emerson)
Bernie Sanders (D) 57%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Joe Biden (D) 56%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 54%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

The NV poll was done October 31-November 2 while the MI poll was done October 31-November 3, among likely voters in each state.

Biden Leads Dems in Three Different Primary Polls

We had three, count ’em, three new national primary polls on the Democratic side that all basically say the same thing, Joe Biden with the lead, Elizabeth Warren in second, Bernie Sanders in third and Pete Buttigieg in fourth. The polls come from NBC News/Wall Street Journal, ABC News/Washington Post, and Fox News.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (NBC/WSJ)
Biden 27%
Warren 23%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 6%
Klobuchar 5%
Harris 4%
Yang 3%
Gabbard 2%
Booker 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (ABC/WaPo)
Biden 28%
Warren 23%
Sanders 17%
Buttigieg 9%
Klobuchar 2%
Harris 2%
Yang 2%
Gabbard 2%
Booker 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Fox News)
Biden 31%
Warren 21%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 3%
Yang 3%
Klobuchar 2%
Gabbard 2%
Booker 2%
O’Rourke 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

In the General Election, Trump trails both top Democrats.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Fox News)
Biden (D) 51%
Trump (R-inc) 39%

Warren (D) 46%
Trump (R-inc) 41%

Sanders (D) 49%
Trump (R-inc) 41%

Buttigieg (D) 41%
Trump (R-inc) 41%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Fox News)
Biden (D) 50%
Trump (R-inc) 41%

Warren (D) 50%
Trump (R-inc) 42%

All three polls were done October 27-30 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 2:30 pm
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November 1, 2019

Warren Leads/Biden in 4th in IA

We have another poll for the Democratic caucus in Iowa that shows Joe Biden mired in fourth place. This latest poll comes from The New York Times and Siena College.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (NYT/Siena)
Elizabeth Warren 22%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Pete Buttigieg 18%
Joe Biden 17%
Amy Klobuchar 4%
Kamala Harris 3%
Andrew Yang 3%
Tom Steyer 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Cory Booker 25
Everyone Else 1% or less

This poll was done October 25-30 among likely caucus goers.

October 29, 2019

Trump/Biden Tied in AZ, Biden Drops to 3rd in NH

Emerson College adds Arizona to the list of states that Donald Trump won in 2016 that is now edging into the Democratic column.

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Emerson)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
Joe Biden (D) 50%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 50%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Bernie Sanders (D) 49%

US SENATE – ARIZONA (Emerson)
Mark Kelly (D) 46%
Martha McSally (R-inc) 45%

This poll was done October 25-28 among 901 registered voters. Meanwhile CNN and the University of New Hampshire have a new poll for the state of New Hampshire showing Joe Biden sitting in third place.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (CNN/UNH)
Bernie Sanders 21%
Elizabeth Warren 18%
Joe Biden 15%
Pete Buttigieg 10%
Andrew Yang 5%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Tulsi Gabbard 5%
Tom Steyer 3%
Kamala Harris 3%
Cory Booker 2%
Beto O’Rourke 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

This poll was done October 21-27 among 574 likely primary voters.

October 25, 2019

Biden Falls to 4th in IA, Leads Shrinks in SC

There have been a number of polls lately, but none seemed more stark than this latest poll from Iowa State University for their home state showing how far Joe Biden is falling behind in this first state.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (ISU)
Elizabeth Warren 28%
Pete Buttigieg 20%
Bernie Sanders 18%
Joe Biden 12%
Amy Klobuchar 4%
Kamala Harris 3%
Tom Steyer 3%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Andrew Yang 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

This poll was done October 18-22 among likely caucus goers. We’ve seen Biden is also struggling in New Hampshire and now we have a new poll from Change Research and The Post and Courier for the state of South Carolina that shows his lead down to only 11%.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (Change Research)
Joe Biden 30%
Elizabeth Warren 19%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Kamala Harris 11%
Pete Buttigieg 9%
Tom Steyer 5%
Andrew Yang 4%
Cory Booker 3%
Tulsi Gabbard 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%

This poll was done October 15-21 among 731 likely primary voters. According to the linked article, his lead was almost 20% just a couple months ago.

GALLUP
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
RASMUSSEN REPORTS