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September 26, 2016

Debate Night Open Thread

I might actually watch this train wreck tonight….

Pre-Debate Polls From CO, PA, VA and MN

The pre-debate polls released today are numerous and are for states across the country. CNN and Opinion Research Corps had polls for Colorado and Pennsylvania.

PRESIDENT – COLORADO (CNN/ORC)
Clinton 49%
Trump 47%

Trump 42%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 12%
Stein 3%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (CNN/ORC)
Clinton 45%
Trump 44%

Clinton 45%
Trump 44%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

These polls were done September 20-25 among likely voters. In Minnesota, Survey USA shows Trump within single digits of Clinton.

PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (Survey USA)
Clinton 49%
Trump 43%

Clinton 46%
Trump 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%

This poll was done September 16-20 among likely voters. Virginia still seems to remain in Clinton’s column according to Christopher Newport University.

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (CNU)
Clinton 48%
Trump 38%

Clinton 39%
Trump 33%
Johnson 15%
Stein 2%

This poll was done September 15-23 among likely voters. There are others, but this is what I can post right now. A thread for the debate tonight will pop up around 8:45.

Posted by Dave at 3:55 pm
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September 25, 2016

Clinton Lead Shrinks Both Nationally and in Pennsylvania

ABC News and The Washington Post released their pre-debate poll this morning and it shows Donald Trump back to within 2% of Hillary Clinton nationally.

PRESIDENT- NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo)
Clinton 49%
Trump 47%

Clinton 46%
Trump 44%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%

This poll was done September 19-22 among likely voters. Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, Muhlenberg College and Morning Call show the race down to 3% head-to-head and 2% in the four-way.

PRESIDENT- PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg/MC)
Clinton 44%
Trump 41%

Clinton 40%
Trump 38%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%

US SENATE – PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg/MC)
Pat Toomey (R-inc) 41%
Katie McGinty (D) 40%

This poll was done September 19-23 among 486 likely voters.

2016 Week 3 NFL Picks

Before we get to this week’s picks, a quick look at how I did last week.

WEEK2 NFL PICKS – WINNERS
Baltimore at Cleveland
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dallas at Washington
New England beat Miami
N.Y. Giants beat New Orleans
Houston beat Kansas City
Carolina beat San Francisco
Arizona beat Tampa Bay
Denver beat Indianapolis
San Diego beat Jacksonville
Philadelphia beat Chicago

WEEK 2 NFL PICKS – LOSERS
Buffalo lost to NY Jets
Detroit lost to Tennessee
Seattle lost to L.A. Rams
Atlanta at Oakland lost to Arizona
Green Bay lost to Minnesota

An 11-5 week provided a bounce back of sorts for me among the so-called experts at ESPN.

ESPN NFL EXPERTS
Merrill Hoge 21-11
KC Joyner 21-11
Mike Golic 21-11
Matt Bowen 21-11
ME 20-12
Kevin Seifert 20-12
Ron Jaworski 20-12
Adam Caplan 19-13
Dan Graziano 18-14
Seth Wickersham 18-14

Now without further ado, The Hedgehog Report picks for Week 3 of the NFL season.

2016 WEEK 3 NFL PICKS
Houston at New England (Lost my third straight Thursday nght game)
Minnesota at Carolina 1:00 pm FOX
Detroit at Green Bay 1:00 pm FOX
Baltimore at Jacksonville 1:00 pm CBS
Arizona at Buffalo 1:00 pm FOX
Oakland at Tennessee 1:00 pm CBS
Cleveland at Miami 1:00 pm CBS
Washington at N.Y. Giants 1:00 pm FOX
Denver at Cincinnati 1:00 pm CBS
San Francisco at Seattle 4:05 pm FOX
L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay 4:05 pm FOX
N.Y. Jets at Kansas City 4:25 pm CBS
San Diego at Indianapolis 4:25 pm CBS
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia 4:25 pm CBS
Chicago at Dallas 8:30 pm NBC
Atlanta at New Orleans 8:30 pm Mon ESPN

Posted by Dave at 8:00 am
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September 24, 2016

Clinton Leads in NC and PA, Tied in NV, Trump Leads in OH and GA

Yesterday, Democracy Corps released polls in four states and it shows Trump still struggling more in the state of North Carolina than he is in Nevada or Ohio.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (DC)
Clinton 44%
Trump 40%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

PRESIDENT – NEVADA (DC)
Clinton 42%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Stein 3%

PRESIDENT – OHIO (DC)
Trump 41%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 11%
Stein 4%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (DC)
Clinton 46%
Trump 38%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%

These poll were done September 10-19 among likely voters in each state. Today, we have a new poll from Landmark and Rosetta Stone showing Donald Trump holding a 4% lead in the state of Georgia.

PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (Landmark/Rosetta)
Donald Trump 47%
Hillary Clinton 43%
Gary Johnson 6%

This poll was done September 21-22 among 600 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 2:47 pm
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September 22, 2016

Polls From IA, CO, VA and GA

Quinnipiac University released polls earlier today for Iowa, Colorado, Virginia and Colorado.

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Quinnipiac)
Trump 50%
Clinton 44%

Trump 44%
Clinton 37%
Johnson 10%
Stein 2%

PRESIDENT – COLORADO (Quinnipiac)
Clinton 47%
Trump 47%

Clinton 44%
Trump 42%
Johnson 10%
Stein 2%

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac)
Clinton 50%
Trump 43%

Clinton 45%
Trump 39%
Johnson 8%
Stein 1%

PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (Quinnipiac)
Trump 50%
Clinton 44%

Trump 47%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 9%

These polls were done September 13-21 among likely voters in each state. Meanwhile, the local PBS station in Colorado shows a much larger lead for Clinton in that state.

PRESIDENT – COLORADO (Rocky Mountain PBS)
Clinton 44%
Trump 35%

Clinton 41%
Trump 34%
Johnson 12%
Stein 3%

This poll was done September 14-18 among likely voters.

Trump Leads in NC, NV and OH, Clinton Leads in VA, WI and IL

Two days ago I mentioned that North Carolina and Nevada were trending to Donald Trump. Yesterday morning, PPP’s poll pushed NC to Trump and then yesterday evening, Fox News released some “swing state” polling that has pushed Nevada into Trump’s column and brought him up to 265 electoral votes. Also polled was North Carolina and Ohio.

PRESIDENT – NEVADA (Fox News)
Trump 43%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 8%

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Fox News)
Trump 45%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 6%

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Fox News)
Trump 42%
Clinton 37%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%

These polls were done September 18-20 among likely voters. In Virginia, Roanoke College is showing Trump still having issues in trying to win this state.

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Roanoke)
Clinton 44%
Trump 37%
Johnson 8%
Stein 1%

This poll was done September 11-20 among 841 likely voters. Meanwhile this morning, Emerson College has polls out for Wisconsin and Illinois that has Clinton with high single-digit leads in both states.

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Emerson)
Clinton 45%
Trump 38%
Johnson 11%
Stein 2%

PRESIDENT – ILLINOIS (Emerson)
Clinton 45%
Trump 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

The WI poll was done September 19-20 and the IL poll was done September 19-21 among likely voters in each state.

September 21, 2016

Trump Leads in NC By 2%, Within 3% of Clinton in WI

As if on cue, after posting the state of race in the previous post, Public Policy Polling released a new poll this morning that has tipped the state of North Carolina to Donald Trump and has brought Hillary Clinton down to 279 electoral votes.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
Donald Trump (R) 45%
Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
Gary Johnson (L) 6%

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
Deborah Ross (R) 41%
Richard Burr (R-inc) 41%
Sean Haugh (L) 4%

This poll was done September 18-20 among 1024 likely voters. Meanwhile, Marquette University Law School has Trump moving to within 3% of Clinton in the state of Wisconsin.

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Marquette)
Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
Donald Trump (R) 38%
Gary Johnson (l) 11%
Jill Stein (G) 2%

This poll was done September 15-18 among 802 registered voters.

September 20, 2016

THR EV Watch: Clinton 294, Trump 244

I took some time to catch up on The Hedgehog Report Electoral College Watch today. In lieu of posting the individual polls over the last few days, I thought I;d take a look at where things currently stand.

Right now, based on polling, Hillary Clinton holds a 294-244 electoral vote lead over Donald Trump.

Based on polling as of right now, Trump would takes the following states won by Barack Obama in 2012: Florida, Iowa and Ohio. Clinton would take the following state won by Mitt Romney in 2012: North Carolina.

More recent polling is showing trends towards Trump in Nevada and North Carolina and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, but that only adds up to an additional 22 electoral votes, which still would leave Trump short of 270 electoral votes.

September 18, 2016

Open Thread Sunday!

About all I have time for this morning….