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April 28, 2015

Walker and Clinton Lead Caucuses in IA

Public Policy Polling’s new look at Iowa shows Scott Walker and Hillary Clinton both up by double digits in their respective party caucuses.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS (PPP)
Scott Walker 23%
Marco Rubio 13%
Jeb Bush 12%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Rand Paul 10%
Ted Cruz 8%
Ben Carson 7%
Chris Christie 5%
Rick Perry 4%

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM PRIMARY (PPP)
Hillary Clinton 62%
Bernie Sanders 14%
Martin O’Malley 6%
Jim Webb 3%
Lincoln Chafee 2%

These polls were done April 23-26 among 466 Democratic caucus goers and 462 Republican caucus goers.

Highs and Lows

It was an amazing contrast of highs and lows in the two major cities on either side of me. Between the thrilling Game 7 win above by the Washington Capitals to the mind numbing events in Baltimore. Frankly, I am so disappointed in my side of the political spectrum who seemed to be almost gleeful in watching the events unfold. These are people too. On top of that, and this may be the unpopular thing to say right now, but the Mayor of Baltimore is really getting a bum rap on her quote. Here is the original statement that she made that is getting so much press.

“I’ve made it very clear that I work with the police and instructed them to do everything that they could to make sure that the protesters were able to exercise their right to free speech. It’s a very delicate balancing act, because, while we tried to make sure that they were protected from the cars and the other things that were going on, we also gave those who wished to destroy space to do that as well. And we worked very hard to keep that balance and to put ourselves in the best position to deescalate, and that’s what you saw.”

If you read the entire quote instead of the short snippet, it is clear she is not claiming she wants to “destroy” Baltimore. She has not done a lot well in this situation, but people on my side of the political world using this line are not helping the situation at all.

Don’t even get me started on the national press coverage. Thank goodness the local coverage has been much more informative (and accurate) and not nearly as sensational as CNN, MSNBC and Fox News.

April 27, 2015

Bush Leads Clinton By 2% in VA

Jeb Bush stands out as the only Republican candidate who leads Hillary Clinton in the state of Virginia according to a new poll from Christopher Newport University.

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (CNU)
Jeb Bush (R) 48%
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Scott Walker (R) 43%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Rand Paul (R) 47%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Chris Christie (R) 45%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Marco Rubio (R) 45%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Mike Huckabee (R) 46%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Ted Cruz (R) 44%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (CNU)
Jeb Bush 17%
Marco Rubio 16%
Scott Walker 10%
Rand Paul 10%
Chris Christie 10%
Ted Cruz 7%
Ben Carson 7%
Mike Huckabee 6%
Donald Trump 5%
Booby Jindal 2%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Rick Santorum <1%
John Kasich <1%
Rick Perry <1%

This poll was done April 13-24 among 658 registered voters.

Walker Leads Clinton by 3%, Ayotte Leads Hassan By 7% in NH

This morning we have new numbers from Gravis Marketing for the state of New Hampshire and the headline is that Scott Walker and Rand Paul are the only GOP candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton in this state.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Gravis)
Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
Jeb Bush (R) 42%

Scott Walker (R) 47%
Hillary Clinton (D) 44%

Rand Paul (R) 45%
Hillary Clinton (D) 44%

Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
Chris Christie (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Marco Rubio (R) 44%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Ted Cruz (R) 44%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Gravis)
Jeb Bush 18%
Scott Walker 16%
Rand Paul 15%
Marco Rubio 11%
Ted Cruz 10%
Chris Christie 5%
Ben Carson 4%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Rick Santorum 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%

IN the US Senate race, Kelly Ayotte has opened up a 7% lead over Maggie Hassan.

US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Gravis)
Kelly Ayotte (R-inc) 50%
Maggie Hassan (D) 43%

This poll was done April 21-22 among 1117 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 7:59 am
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April 24, 2015

Rubio Leads in Second Straight National Primary Poll

Some confirmation from Fox News that the poll CNN released on Friday was an outlier as their latest result more mirror the numbers we saw from Quinnipiac University yesterday.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Fox News)
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Marco Rubio (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Jeb Bush (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Chris Chirstie (D) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Rand Paul (R) 43%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Mike Huckabee (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Scott Walker (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Ted Cruz (R) 42%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Fox News)
Marco Rubio 13%
Scott Walker 12%
Rand Paul 10%
Jeb Bush 9%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Ted Cruz 8%
Chris Christie 6%
Ben Carson 6%
Donald Trump 5%
Rick Perry 2%
Jon Kasich 2%
Lindsey Graham 1%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Carly Fiorina 0%

This poll was done April 19-21 among 1012 registered voters.

April 23, 2015

Rubio Within 2% Of Clinton Nationally, Also Leads GOP Primary Field

This is what drives me crazy about polling these days. Three days ago we received a national poll from CNN claiming Hillary Clinton held a 14% lead over Marco Rubio. Three days later, we have another national poll, this time from Quinnipiac University, showing her lead over Rubio at a just 2%. The other major news is Marco Rubio has jumped to the top of the Republican field in the primary.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Quinnipiac)
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Marco Rubio (R) 43%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Jeb Bush (R) 39%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Chris Chirstie (D) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Rand Paul (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Mike Huckabee (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Scott Walker (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Ted Cruz (R) 41%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (CNN/ORC)
Marco Rubio 15%
Jeb Bush 13%
Scott Walker 11%
Ted Cruz 9%
Rand Paul 8%
Mike Huckabee 7%
Chris Christie 7%
Ben Carson 3%
Rick Perry 3%
Lindsey Graham 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Jon Kasich 2%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%

This poll was done April 16-21 among 1353 registered voters and 567 Republicans.

April 22, 2015

Murphy and McCollum Lead US Senate Primary Polls in FL

Mason-Dixon continues to release polling numbers for the state of Florida and we now have a look at the primary races for Marco Rubio’s soon-to-be Open US Senate seat.

US SENATE – FLORIDA – DEM PRIMARY (Mason-Dixon)
Patrick Murphy 23%
Alan Grayson 14%
Undecided 63%

US SENATE – FLORIDA – GOP PRIMARY (Mason-Dixon)
Bill McCollum 20%
David Jolly 8%
Vern Buchanan 7%
Tom Rooney 5%
Ron Desantis 4%
Carlos Lopez-Cantera 4%
George Lemieux 3%
Don Gaetz 1%
Undecided 485

This poll was done April 14-16 among 400 registered voters in each party.

I can’t say I am a fan of my party doing this, but I guess the thought is he will bring in some money.

April 21, 2015

Clinton Dominates GOP in NH

Public Policy Polling’s latest poll from New Hampshire shows just how far this state has gotten away from Republicans when even Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden manage to beat Scott Walker in head-to-head match ups.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP)
Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Jeb Bush (R) 36%

Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Ben Carson (R) 38%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Scott Walker (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Mike Huckabee (R) 38%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Rand Paul (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Chris Christie (R) 36%

Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
Ted Cruz (R) 37%

Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Marco Rubio (R) 38%

Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Rick Perry (R) 38%

Joe Biden (D) 44%
Scott Walker (R) 40%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%
Scott Walker (R) 40%

This poll was done April 9-13 among 747 registered voters.

Bush Leads GOP Field in IA, Rice Would Beat Clinton in IA

Gravis Marketing released a new poll for teh state of Iowa and it shows Jeb Bush at the top of the Republican field. Interstingly the article (as of the time of this post) shows Mike Huckabee twice in the GOP primary. I leave it that way until they fix it.

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Gravis)
Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
Jeb Bush (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Scott Walker (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
Mike Huckabee (R) 43%

Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
Chris Christie (R) 39%

Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
Rand Paul (R) 43%

Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
Carly Fiorina (R) 37%

Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Ted Cruz (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Marco Rubio (R) 42%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Ben Carson (R) 37%

Condoleezza Rice (R) 43%
Hillary Clinton (D) 40%

PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS (Gravis)
Jeb Bush 16%
Scott Walker 13%
Marco Rubio 12%
Rand Paul 9%
Ben Carson 9%
Mike Huckabee 8%
Ted Cruz 6%
Chris Christie 5%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Mike Huckabee 2%

This poll was done April 13th among 1259 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 7:36 am
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April 20, 2015

Bush/Rubio Lead Clinton in FL, Clinton Dominates GOP in NJ

Mason-Dixon released more from their poll in Florida this morning and it shows both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio with leads over Hillary Clinton.

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Mason-Dixon)
Jeb Bush (R) 47%
Hillary Clinton (D) 43%

Marco Rubio (R) 49%
Hillary Clinton (D) 43%

This poll was done April 14-16 among 625 registered voters. Meanwhile in New Jersey, Quinnipiac University came out with a poll showing Clinton should have no problem there holding the state of Democrats.

PRESIDENT – NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac)
Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Chris Christie (R) 36%

Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
Rand Paul (R) 34%

Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
Mike Huckabee (R) 30%

Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
Jeb Bush (R) 33%

Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
Marco Rubio (R) 34%

Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
Scott Walker (R) 32%

Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
Ted Cruz (R) 30%

This poll was done April 9-14 among 1428 registered voters. The primary polls show basically what we see everywhere else with the only note that Christie does lead Republicans in his own home state.