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August 4, 2015

And The Debate Field Is Set

Fox News has announced the ten candidates who will appear in Thursday Main Event:

1. Donald Trump
2. Jeb Bush
3. Scott Walker
4. Mike Huckabee
5. Ben Carson
6. Ted Cruz
7. Marco Rubio
8. Rand Paul
9. Chris Christie
10. John Kasich

Sent to the “kids table”:

Carly Fiorina
Bobby Jindal
Rick Perry
Rick Santorum
George Pataki
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham

Overall I think it ended up being a good list. As much I am not a Donald Trump fan, he did earn his spot by dominating the polls. My one regret is that Carly Fiorina couldn’t make it if only so that we did not have a full slate of only male candidates, but no sadness about the other six who were left out.

Posted by Dave at 6:39 pm
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Clinton Only Leads Bush By 2% in MN

We have new General Election numbers for the state of Minnesota and it seems to be a lot closer than one would think.

PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (PPP)
Hillary Clinton 44%
Jeb Bush 42%

Jeb Bush 41%
Bernie Sanders 40%

Hillary Clinton 44%
Ben Carson 39%

Hillary Clinton 43%
Chris Christie 38%

Hillary Clinton 44%
Ted Cruz 39%

Hillary Clinton 44%
Carly Fiorina 33%

Hillary Clinton 44%
Mike Huckabee 42%

Hillary Clinton 43%
Rand Paul 42%

Hillary Clinton 42%
Marco Rubio 40%

Bernie Sanders 39%
Marco Rubio 37%

Hillary Clinton 44%
Donald Trump 39%

Bernie Sanders 45%
Donald Trump 37%

Hillary Clinton 46%
Scott Walker 42%

Bernie Sanders 41%
Scott Walker 40%

This poll was done July 30-August 2 among 1015 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 4:08 pm
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Two More National Polls Have Trump Leading By Double Digits

We have not one, but two new national primary polls this morning, one from Bloomberg News and one from CBS News, to add to the Fox News debate mix.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (CBS News)
Donald Trump 24%
Jeb Bush 13%
Scott Walker 10%
Mike Huckabee 8%
Ben Carson 6%
Ted Cruz 6%
Marco Rubio 6%
Rand Paul 4%
Chris Christie 3%
Rick Perry 2%
Bobby Jindal 2%
John Kasich 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Jim Gilmore 1%
Lindsey Graham 0%
Carly Fiorina 0%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Bloomberg)
Donald Trump 21%
Jeb Bush 10%
Scott Walker 8%
Mike Huckabee 7%
Marco Rubio 6%
Ben Carson 5%
Rand Paul 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
Chris Christie 4%
John Kasich 4%
Rick Perry 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Carly Fiorina 1%
George Pataki 0%
Jim Gilmore 0%

The Bloomberg poll was done July 30-August 2 among 500 primary voters and the CBS News poll was done July 29-August 2 among 353 primary voters. Despite the number of candidates, in the last week the race has really become somewhat stable from poll to poll. Donald Trump seems to hold a high-single to low-double digit lead in every poll now with Jeb Bush and Scott Walker flipflopping between second and third. Huckabee, Rubio, Carson, Paul and Cruz seem to shuffle between spots 4-8 with John Kasich and Chris Christie itching to join that group to make it a solid ten. Then we have the rest of the crowd that in just about every poll brings up the final seven spots.

August 3, 2015

Trump Leads By 11% in Fox News National GOP Poll

Fox News throws out their own numbers that will help determine who will be in the top ten for their own debate this Thursday.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Fox News)
Donald Trump 26%
Jeb Bush 15%
Scott Walker 9%
Ben Carson 7%
Mike Huckabee 6%
Ted Cruz 6%
Marco Rubio 5%
Rand Paul 5%
Chris Christie 3%
John Kasich 3%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Rick Perry 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Lindsey Graham <1%
George Pataki <1%
Jim Gilmore <1%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Fox News)
Hillary Clinton 51%
Bernie Sanders 22%
Joe Biden 13%
Martin O’Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 1%

This poll was done July 30-August 2 among registered voters. The more I think about it and watch the news, this “top ten” thing by Fox News is turning out to be a brilliant marketing strategy. Eveery time a poll is mentioned, regardless of who it is from, Fox News gets their brand mentioned.

Posted by Dave at 8:44 pm
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Trump Leads Christie in NJ GOP Primary Poll

It appears that Chris Christie is now trailing Donald Trump in his own home state of New Jersey according to a new poll from Rutgers-Eagleton.

PRESIDENT – NEW JERSEY – GOP PRIMARY (Rutgers)
Donald Trump 21%
Chris Christie 12%
Jeb Bush 10%
Scott Walker 10%
Ben Carson 5%
Marco Rubio 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
Rand Paul 2%
John Kasich 2%
Mike Huckabee 1%
Newt Gingrich 1%
Paul Ryan 1%
Rick Perry <1%
Carly Fiorina <1%
Lindsey Graham <1%

The poll question apparently did not include an actual list of names, so that is why we ended up with the likes of Gingrich and Ryan in this poll. This poll was done July 25-August 1 among 757 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 5:21 pm
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Trump Tops Bush By 14% Nationally

Monmouth University has entered their numbers for the polling average that Fox News will use.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Donald Trump 26%
Jeb Bush 12%
Scott Walker 11%
Mike Huckabee 6%
Ted Cruz 6%
Ben Carson 5%
Marco Rubio 4%
Rand Paul 4%
Chris Christie 4%
John Kasich 3%
Rick Perry 2%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%
George Pataki <1%
Jim Gilmore 0%

This poll was done July 30-August 2 among 423 registered Republicans or “lean toward the Republican Party”, whatever the heck that means.

August 2, 2015

NBC/WSJ Have Trump At 19% in National GOP Primary

I would have had this up earlier, but Windows 10 took almost 80 minutes from beginning to end to install on my laptop. NBC News and The Wall Street Journal have come out with their view of the Republican primary race and it has Donald Trump only at 19%.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (NBC/WSJ)
Donald Trump 19%
Scott Walker 15%
Jeb Bush 14%
Ben Carson 10%
Ted Cruz 9%
Mike Huckabee 6%
Rand Paul 6%
Marco Rubio 5%
Chris Christie 3%
John Kasich 3%
Rick Perry 3%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Carly Fiorina 0%
Lindsey Graham 0%
George Pataki 0%
Jim Gilmore 0%

This poll was done July 26-30 among 252 likely primary voters.

August 1, 2015

Trump Hits 31% Nationally in GOP Field

Following up on their poll yesterday, Gravis Marketing has a new national poll that shows Donald Trump has now hit 30% in the national primary race, nearly tripling his nearest opponent.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Gravis)
Donald Trump 31%
Jeb Bush 13%
Scott Walker 13%
Ben Carson 6%
Mike Huckabee 6%
Ted Cruz 6%
Marco Rubio 5%
John Kasich 5%
Rand Paul 4%
Chris Christie 3%
Rick Perry 3%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%
George Pataki 0%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Gravis)
Hillary Clinton 55%
Bernie Sanders 18%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Joe Biden 6%
Jim Webb 5%
Martin O’Malley 3%
Lincoln Chafee 2%

Not sure of the dates of this poll since it was not mentioned in the article, but it does state it was done among 1535 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 3:27 pm
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July 31, 2015

Trumps Hits 30% in IA

Donald Trump is now doubling up on Scott Walker in the state of Iowa according to a new poll from Gravis Marketing and OANN as Republicans continue their destructive path of making Donald Trump the face of the Republican Party.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS (Gravis)
Donald Trump 31%
Scott Walker 15%
Jeb Bush 10%
Bobby Jindal 7%
Mike Huckabee 6%
Ted Cruz 6%
Ben Carson 5%
John Kasich 5%
Carly Fiorina 4%
Rick Santorum 3%
Marco Rubio 3%
Rick Perry 2%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Chris Christie 1%
Rand Paul 1%
George Pataki 1%

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (Gravis)
Hillary Clinton 51%
Bernie Sanders 24%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Joe Biden 6%
Martin O’Malley 5%
Lincoln Chafee 2%
Jim Webb 1%

Why on earth are they still including Elizabeth Warren in their polls? These polls were done July 29th among likely caucus goers.

Kasich Wins Howard County, MD Straw Poll

This evening we also held a straw poll for the 2016 Presidential primary. Gov. John Kasich came in first, followed by Gov. Scott Walker, and Sen Rand Paul.

Posted by The Howard County Republican Party on Thursday, July 30, 2015

So it appears at least the voters who attended our local county Lincoln Day Dinner last night at least have some sanity. Note, no Donald Trump, Ted Cruz or Ben Carson in the top three. We also got to hear from Florida US Senate candidate David Jolly:

IMG_1023

I will say winning an election really helps with enthusiasm in the Republican Party. Everyone outside Maryland knows about Larry Hogan becoming Governor, but we were also able to win at the local level back in November for the first time in twenty years and the increase in excitement for Republicans in Maryland and Howard County even nine months later is still very high. Meanwhile, Rasmussen Reports has put out their primary poll to add to the Fox News’ mix.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Rasmussen)
Donald Trump 26%
Scott Walker 14%
Jeb Bush 10%
Ted Cruz 7%
Mike Hcukabee 7%
Marco Rubio 5%
Ben Carson 5%
John Kasich 5%
Rand Paul 3%
Chris Christie 2%
Rick Perry 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Bobby Jindal 2%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
George Pataki 1%

This poll was done July 26-27 among 471 likely voters. Add this to Quinnipiac University’s poll yesterday and I am sure a slew of others dumping out polls leading up to Thursday’s debate, we should be in for a treat if you like polling.