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January 24, 2015

Harris/Rice Top CA Primary, Romney leads Bush/Rubio By 3%

Public Policy Polling was paid by Kamala Harris to release a new poll for the US Senate race in California showing her leading the field with Republican Condi Rice a close second.

US SENATE – CALIFORNIA – PRIMARY (PPP)
Kamala Harris (D) 34%
Condoleezza Rice (R) 33%
Anthony Villaraigosa (D) 9%
Loretta Sanchez (D) 4%
Xavier Becerra (D) 3%
Rocky Chavez (D) 2%

This poll was done January 27th among 627 primary voters. Meanwhile, I missed a new poll from John Zogby (jason did mention this in a previous post) that has Marco Rubio supposedly within 3% of the top of the Republican field.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Zogby)
Mitt Romney 16%
Jeb Bush 13%
Marco Rubio 13%
Chris Christie 11%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Scott Walker 6%
Bobby Jindal 4%
Rand Paul 3%
Ted Cruz 3%
Rick Perry 3%
Nikki Haley <1%
Rob Portman <1%
Susana Martinez <1%
Rick Santorum <1%

This poll was done January 16-18 among 223 likely primary voters.

Posted by Dave at 9:12 pm
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January 23, 2015

Vitter Leads Gov Poll/Landrieu Leads US Senate Poll in LA

Another quick turn around as I found a new poll for the 2015 gubernatorial race and 2016 US Senate race in Louisiana done by North Star Opinion Research.

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA – PRIMARY (NSOR)
David Vitter (R) 24%
John Bel Edwards (D) 20%
John Kennedy (R) 13%
Jay Dardenne (R) 10%
Scott Angelle (R) 2%

US SENATE – LOUISIANA – PRIMARY (NSOR)
Mitch Landrieu (D) 39%
John Kennedy (R) 18%
Charles Boustany (R) 13%
Tyler Fleming (R) 7%

I think the US Senate seat in Louisiana may be a seat under the radar that Republicans might be scared of losing should David Vitter become Governor. Still a long way to go, but should Vitter win, he will get to pick his replacement and hopefully he picks someone that can win in 2016. This poll was done January 10-13 among 600 registered voters.

Romney Leads GOP Field By 11%

As promised, Rasmussen Reports dumped out their full Republican primary poll and it has Mitt Romney topping the field.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Rasmussen)
Mitt Romney 24%
Jeb Bush 13%
Ben Carson 12%
Scott Walker 11%
Chris Christie 7%
Rand Paul 7%
Ted Cruz 5%
Marco Rubio 5%

This poll was done January 18-19 among 787 primary voters. It is interesting to note that Rasmussen Reports decided to leave Mike Huckabee’s name out of the mix.

Primary Polls in NH and MA

In New Hampshire, a new poll from NH1 and Reach Communications shows Mitt Romney still has a “home field” advantage over Jeb Bush.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (NH1/Reach)
Mitt Romney 29%
Jeb Bush 11%
Chris Christie 8%
Scott Walker 8%
Ben Carson 7%
Rand Paul 7%
Mike Huckabee 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
Marco Rubio 3%

This poll was done January 21st among 827 registered voters. Meanwhile in Massachusetts, Gravis Marketing did a poll for the Howie Carr Show that shows in a head-to-head match up in Elizabeth Warren’s home state, Hillary Clinton would still defeat her.

PRESIDENT – MASSACHUSETTS – DEM PRIMARY (Gravis)
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 32%

This poll was done January 19-21 among 358 registered voters.

January 22, 2015

Hillary Leads GOP in PA, Carson Leads Primary Field

The flood gates are starting crack as polls are becoming a little more frequent. This afternoon, we get the next part of the results for the state of Pennsylvania from Public Policy Polling.

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (PPP)
Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Chris Christie (R) 39%

Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Jeb Bush (R) 38%

Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Ben Carson (R) 37%

Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Rand Paul (R) 39%

Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Mike Huckabee (R) 39%

Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Mitt Romney (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
Rick Santorum (R) 36%

Mitt Romney (R) 44%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 36%

Mitt Romney (R) 43%
Joe Biden (D) 41%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
Ben Carson 18%
Mitt Romney 14%
Jeb Bush 14%
Chris Christie 9%
Ted Cruz 9%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Scott Walker 8%
Rand Paul 7%
Rick Santorum 6%

It is, at the same time, both great to see Rick Santorum doing so poorly in his home state and horrible to see Ben Carson leading a primary poll, no matter how early it is. This poll was done January 15-18 among 1042 registered voters and 592 primary voters.

UPDATE: Fixed typo in GOP primary poll

GOP Candidate Leads Special Election in NY-11, Romney Leads Bush Head-to-Head

Some news organization called Capital New York got their hands on a new poll for the open US House seat in New York done by the left polling organization Global Strategy Group that shows Republican Dan Donovan with a healthy lead over Democrat Michael Cusick.

US HOUSE – NEW YORK CD 11 (GSG)
Dan Donovan (R) 48%
Michael Cusick (D) 28%

According to Wikipedia, Democrats have not yet selected their nominee, but my understanding is Cusick is their preferred candidate. This poll was done January 16-18 among 404 registered voters. Meanwhile, Rasmussen Reports has come out with a somewhat useless head-to-head primary poll pitting the top two Republicans, Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush, against each other.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Rasmussen)
Mitt Romney 49%
Jeb Bush 32%

This poll was done January 18-19 among 787 likely primary voters. The article linked above does indicate Rasmussen will have a poll result for the full primary field tomorrow.

Hillary Leads GOP in NJ

Today we start the first full day /(after Larry Hogan took over yesterday) of my entire life where I get to live under both a Republican Governor in Maryland and a Republican County Executive in Howard County. All we need now is to get a Republican President elected in 2016 and I will then be able to live under an entire executive branch of Government from top to bottom under Republican rule. We all can dream. But if that is going to happen, it won’t be with the help of New Jersey according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University.

PRESIDENT – NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac)
Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
Chris Christie (R) 39%

Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
Jeb Bush (R) 37%

Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
Rand Paul (R) 35%

Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
Mike Huckabee (R) 33%

Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
Mitt Romney (R) 38%

PRESIDENT – NEW JERSEY – GOP PRIMARY (Quinnipiac)
Chris Christie 24%
Mitt Romney 18%
Jeb Bush 13%
Ben Carson 6%
Ted Cruz 6%
Rand Paul 5%
Scott Walker 4%
Mike Huckabee 4%
Marco Rubio 3%
Bobby Jindal 2%
Rick Perry 1%
John Kasich 0%
Rick Santorum 0%

This poll was done January 15-19 among 1211 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 7:47 am
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January 20, 2015

State of the Union Thread

As is tradition, an open thread for everyone to talk about the speech as it happens so I can read along and avoid watching it myself….

Toomey Leads Dems in PA

After their disastrous 2014, Public Policy Polling is jumping into the 2016 with their first public release of the year. In a new pol for the state of Pennsylvania, PPP finds Ed Rendell as the only Democrat who would start off with a lead against Republican Pat Toomey.

US SENATE – PENNSYLVANIA (PPP)
Pat Toomey (R-inc) 44%
Kathleen Kane (D) 38%

Pat Toomey (R-inc) 42%
Chris Matthews (D) 38%

Pat Toomey (R-inc) 42%
Michael Nutter (D) 35%

Pat Toomey (R-inc) 40%
Joe Sestak (D) 36%

Pat Toomey (R-inc) 43%
Josh Shapiro (D) 31%

Ed Rendell (D) 44%
Pat Toomey (R-inc) 41%

This poll was done January 15-18 among 1042 registered voters. If Democrats are going to retake the US Senate back from Republicans, you have to think this seat is one of the top must-haves for them behind Illinois and Wisconsin in seats that are normally blue states. Besides the seats they already have, I would include New Hampshire and Iowa as the others. They need a net pick up of five.

January 19, 2015

Republicans Want Romney and Bush

We still seem to be slow with the primary polls this calendar year, but we did get a new poll from CBS News showing a majority of Republicans want either Based on this question…

I’m going to read you a list of names. For each please tell me if you would like to see them run for ‘resident of the United States in 2016? or not? or whether you don’t know enough about that person to say.

…here is how CBS News claims Republicans answered:

Candidate YES NO
Romney 59% 26%
Bush 50% 27%
Huckabee 40% 29%
Palin 30% 59%
Christie 29% 44%
Paul 27% 34%
Rubio 26% 19%
Walker 22% 12%
Carson 21% 17%
Cruz 21% 25%
Perry 21% 32%
Santorum 19% 29%
Jindal 14% 20%

I don’t think anyone thinks she is going to run, but it is heartening to see almost 60% Republicans not wanting Sarah Palin to run. Also, more Republicans than not do not want Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie and Rick Perry to run.